Weather Blog | Not so cold...solar storm...and southeast uproar

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The second half of January is the climatological minimum...the coldest part of the year. Our average high is 28° with an average low of 13°. Our average high so far this month is 36° with an average low of 16°. Another month that looks to average above normal this winter.

Zero change in pattern...

The overall pattern so far this winter has favored fast moving southern runners and western runners. The absence of cold air across the majority of the country has played a major role in reducing snowfall totals across the area. The lack of cold air reduces lake effect and produces more rain/freezing rain/sleet events rather than snow events.

Will it change? Unfortunately, not in the near future. The next weather event Thursday night into Friday looks to be another 'mixed' bag of precipitation. It may initially start out as a period of sleet/freezing rain before switching to plain rain. We'll break down the details on that tomorrow given the complexity of the situation.

Interesting National Headlines...

A few interesting stories of recent in national news. First, a solar storm made headlines over the past few days. Like hurricanes, solar storm intensity is classified on a scale of 1-5. Despite the buzz, last night's event was rated a G1. The northern lights from it last night were a disappointment locally...not just because of cloud cover. The lights didn't even come close to our latitude.

Southeast uproar...

I've also been following the tornado outbreak in the southeast that happened earlier in the week. The local meteorologists are upset at the way ABC World News handled the headlines on Monday. You can watch the opening report here. Viewers are lead to believe that these storms surprised everyone and came "without warning". Not true at all. The local meteorologists, National Weather Service, and Emergency Managers were well aware of the possibility of tornadoes and destructive storm days in advance. If the storms were truly a surprise, the death toll would be in the hundreds.

This isn't the first time meteorologists have been "thrown under the bus". Recall the Indiana State Fair collapse back in the summer. Again, the national outlets claimed a surprise event with no warning. There were severe thunderstorm warnings issued by the NWS before the severe winds took down that stage. The problem was with the slow reaction of the state fair officials. In this case, the facts did take a bit of time to come out. Still, a simple call to the local weather service office could have brought more clarification to the story.

The fact is that big events (large, destructive tornadoes, hurricanes, major snowstorms) rarely "sneak up" on meteorologists these days. Big tornado outbreaks can be predicted days in advance, which is something that wasn't possible a few decades ago. The lead time on tornadoes is nearly 30 minutes. In the mid 1990s (remember Twister?) the lead time was less than 5 minutes. Though not perfect, the technology is getting much better....and it saved a bunch of lives on the southeast over the past week.

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MG (Point Rock):

28 degrees. I picked up 0.7” of fresh snow last night — enough to give a clean white coating to the old, dirty snow that was left.

Posted January 25th at 8:06 AM
Lori (Bridgeport):

I checked several times in the night to see if the lights were visible and the only thing you could see was a lighter band just above the horizon …..no color…just like a lighter strip across the sky where they should have been.

Posted January 25th at 8:58 AM
Matt (Rochester):

Bill, That’s a great point about Tornado’s. I think it is apparent that forecasting is getting better. I have no doubt last years out break last year in April the death toll would have been in the 1000’s if not for all the warnings and plenty of notice.

Posted January 25th at 9:15 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Picked up 0.3” of light snow overnight – as MG noted just enough to cover up the brown. Getting some light snow or snizzle right now at 30 degrees.
On the Northern Lights- when I was a teen back in the late 1970’s my family was stationed in Anchorage and seeing them was a regular occurrence and they were something to behold. Lots of people did paintings of them etc. Only time I have seen them sine then was once on a hunting trip up to Quebec in late August back in the late 80’s.

Posted January 25th at 9:45 AM
Lori (Bridgeport):

I have seen the lights before ..back in the 1980’s …....they are amazing to see.

Posted January 25th at 10:51 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

One of our skywatchers, Dave, from Herkimer left me a voicemail I thought I’d share. His daughter lives in Alaska and saw a spectacular show of the Northern Lights last night.

Posted January 25th at 12:34 PM
Nick (West Winfield,NY):

27 degrees here….I think the size of the solar flare was pretty interesting…..a M-9…pretty strong but not a X Class.

Posted January 25th at 8:28 PM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
4 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY.
- LOCATIONS...SULLIVAN...DELAWARE...OTSEGO...AND ONEIDA
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- HAZARDS...WINTRY MIX INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN.
- ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE...AND LESS THAN
AN INCH OF SNOW AND SLEET...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- TIMING...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BECOME MAINLY FREEZING RAIN BY THIS EVENING...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS OF FRIDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES...NEAR FREEZING...RISING ABOVE FREEZING LATE TONIGHT.
- IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS WILL BECOME ICY.
Posted January 26th at 4:33 AM
Tom (Richfield Springs):

23 degrees, calm, 0.4” of new snow last night.

Posted January 26th at 5:03 AM
Denys (East Winfield):

23 degrees, calm and some high clouds. I can actually see stars out there this morning!
1/2” of new snow.

Posted January 26th at 5:07 AM
Nick (West Winfield,NY):

24 degrees here and calm also. 0.4 if new snow also.

Posted January 26th at 5:39 AM
nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

30* here with 0.4” of new snow.

Posted January 26th at 6:53 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

I have 0.3” here. Nothing on radar though.

Posted January 26th at 7:21 AM
MG (Point Rock):

I measured 0.4” overnight, too. There’s some pretty dense fog over areas above about 1200 ft. in the northern part of Oneida Co.

Posted January 26th at 8:09 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

I think the guys and gals up in the northeastern part of the viewing area may see some interesting weather the next 24 hours. Looks like a definite cold air dam forming and it may get quite slick up there

Posted January 26th at 8:20 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Thoughts on tonight….

http://www.wktv.com/weather/video-blog/Icy-pockets-in-parts-of-the-area-tonight-138116228.html

Posted January 26th at 8:29 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Precipitation accelerating towards CNY, starting out as light snow in Elmira and Binghamton.

Posted January 26th at 12:04 PM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Timing the onset around 2-3pm….starting as light snow and then changing over to rain, sleet, and freezing rain.

Posted January 26th at 12:10 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

Had .4 overnight here as well.

Posted January 26th at 12:18 PM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Snow has begun down here, falling lightly at this time.

Posted January 26th at 1:20 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

Light snow has begun falling here

Posted January 26th at 1:31 PM
Randy HP (Holland Patent):

GFS painting a winter pattern from 2 February through 10 February. Looks a big trough in the east with high pressure nosing upwards in central Canada. Will this hold to be true?

Posted January 26th at 1:36 PM
MrVoice (Little Falls):

Light snow…small flakes falling in Little Falls

Posted January 26th at 1:53 PM
Lori (Bridgeport):

lite snow here too ..temp 33 .

Posted January 26th at 2:02 PM
Denys (East Winfield):

Sleeting in New Hartford, just changed over from snow.

Posted January 26th at 3:57 PM
Michael (Dolgeville):

1.00” inch of snow here. Roads are snow/slush covered. Temp is 29.7 degrees.

Posted January 26th at 4:35 PM
MG (Point Rock):

Have just gone over to freezing rain, at 30 degrees. 0.9” snow before the change.

Posted January 26th at 5:48 PM
Nick (West Winfield,NY):

30 degrees here with 0.6 of snow since this morning…...Freezing rain right now with a layer of ice everywhere…......

Posted January 26th at 6:04 PM
Jimmy (New Hartford):

Roads are in rough shape around here, 32* degrees with freezing rain. We got .4 of snow before the changeover

Posted January 26th at 7:13 PM
Deb (Hartwick):

Temp is rising- up to 34 degrees here. ice is melting

Posted January 26th at 8:09 PM
Deb (Hartwick):

Temp is rising- up to 34 degrees here. ice is melting

Posted January 26th at 8:09 PM
nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

My temp has been stuck at an even 32* since I got home at 5:00 – getting a steady freezing mist, very icy out with everything coated.

Posted January 26th at 8:33 PM
Denys (East Winfield):

35 degrees with moderate rain.

Posted January 27th at 5:05 AM
Tom (Richfield Springs):

33 degrees, steady rain.

Posted January 27th at 5:10 AM
Nick (West Winfield,NY):

36 degrees here and steady rain…...Had about .2 of ice yesterday.

Posted January 27th at 5:45 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Stayed above freezing all night, it did get a bit icy last night around 11, but its definitely not icy out now. I am at 1300 feet and there is not even ice on the trees anymore, yet schools are delayed??????

Posted January 27th at 7:18 AM
Winter (Forestport):

The “January Thaw” is not happening this year…Is it a thing of the past ???

Posted January 27th at 7:23 AM
Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

36 degrees. The ice from last nights drive home is gone.

0.76” in the CoCoRaHS bucket this am also!

Posted January 27th at 7:27 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Never thought I’d see a heavy rainfall in Old Forge in the middle of January. I can count on one hand the number of times I’ve seen that happen.

Posted January 27th at 7:42 AM
MG (Point Rock):

Winter — I guess you mean “January” is a thing of the past.
Some of the back roads up here are still in pretty rough shape, although they are improving. I had 1.12” of precip as of 7:30, with 5.5” snow on the ground

Posted January 27th at 8:22 AM
Winter (Forestport):

The weather … I understand statistical extremes…but, we have had too many extremes in too concentrated a time to discount a catalyst…and, we – man – are the catalyst… Say “HELLO” to global warming…

Posted January 27th at 8:25 AM

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