Weather Blog | Nickel and dime snows to start February...

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Welcome to February! January is in the books. Here's a look at the numbers:

Snowfall: 25.8" (-1.3")
Temperature: 20.8 (-0.3°)

Highest temperature: 49° January 25th
Coldest temperaure: -13° January 10th

# days below zero: 6
# days above 32: 14

Largest snowfall total: 8.0" January 3rd

January will go down in the books as a "typical" January. Our snowfall and temperatures were very close to our 30 year monthly average for the month. The month started with cold and snow, with 18" of our snow falling in the first 6 days of the new year. THe weather turned cold, but quiet into the second week, followed by a slow, dry warmup for the middle of the month. The last week saw a dramatic temperature swing, along with that ice jam in Dolgeville.

So what's in store for February? In the short term, the weather patterns will stay seasonably chilly with some "nickel and dime" style snows. Lake effect today will give many areas an inch or two as it wiggles back to the north this afternoon. Some lake snows are possible tonight across Central Oneida County. Conditions won't be great for that lake effect and we're only expecting lighter snows. Yet another snowmaker will give snows to Virginia, Maryland, and New Jersey Tuesday night. Areas across the Mid Atlantic have been hogging all the snowstorms this year. We do expect light snow out of that system, but overall totals look to be very light. The next system that bears watching is expected to pass south yet again as a large area of high pressure builds into the northeast. While this isn't set in stone, this has been the going trend here over the past week.

The large scale patterns continue to favor a chilly, dry pattern here in the northeast. PNA, the large scale wind patterns found in the Pacific, will trend positive over the next week. This pattern keeps the floodgates of Canada open, meaning we'll be vulerable to cold snaps through the middle of the month. The lake effect season will continue for sure in a pattern like this. For those of you itching for a big storm...the large scale patterns aren't looking very promising. Storms that develop to the south will continue to zip by unless a blocking pattern develops in the Atlantic. That allows storms to travel "up the coast" and dump large snows across the northeast. At some point, there will be an opportunity for this to happen, but it doesn't look promising in the short term. We'll likely continue to add to the snowfall deficit through the first half of the month (unless something sneaks up on us).

El Nino hasn't been much of a story this winter. We saw a taste of it near the end of the month of January, with large storms out west and a brief warmup pattern here in the east. El Nino is expected to slowly weaken for the rest of the winter, and as it does so, it will have even less of an impact here in the northeast.

By the way...it's Monday. Don't forget to post your season snowfall totals below. I'll have the list updated at 11am this morning.

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Mel (Westernville):

Picked up 4” overnight – season total at an even 61”.

Posted February 1st at 8:25 AM
Brian(Lairdsville):

Counting the overnight snowfall my season total is 46.1 inches.

Posted February 1st at 9:08 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Picked up 2.0” here. Seasonal total is @ 48.6”

Posted February 1st at 10:08 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Picked up 4.5 inches overnight, Total for the season is 110.3.

Posted February 1st at 11:03 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Thank god we have Lake Ontario. I haven’t been keeping track but I bet 80% of our snow this year was lake effect/enhanced.

Posted February 1st at 11:09 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Snowfall totals updated

Posted February 1st at 11:13 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Rob,

A good place to compare lake effect vs non lake effect is Albany….far enough away from the lakes but still close by. Albany has 30.8” of snow to date, which is pretty close to what we’d have if we didn’t have the lake influence.

Posted February 1st at 11:28 AM
Chris ( HP weather Observer ):

Picked up 2.25 inches of fluffy snow this morning.. seasonal total now 46.5 inches and counting !! thanks. looks kinda quiet for the rest of the week..

Posted February 1st at 11:56 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Seasonal Snowfall 52.8”

Still no synoptic snowfall of over 4”.......

Posted February 1st at 2:41 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Seasonal Snowfall 34.96” inches as of 2/1/2010.

Posted February 1st at 5:23 PM
Nick (West Winfield NY):

Adam,
Is it possible it will snow hard Wednesday.

Posted February 1st at 5:39 PM
Adam Musyt:

Mostly light snow showers are expected for tonight, but there will be a few heavier squalls in Lewis County through the evening. Be careful traveling across the North Country tonight.

Snowfall forecast for tonight

Posted February 1st at 6:42 PM
Gordon (Northwestern):

3.7” overnight. 58.8” of snow for the season.

Posted February 1st at 6:53 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Adam what kind of pattern do we want to see to “phase” the jet streams. I always thought it was a +PNA and -NAO pattern. We’ve been in this pattern since November with out any big coastal storms (besides the Dec storm that missed us!).

Posted February 1st at 8:27 PM
MG(Point Rock):

I’ve picked up a quick 1.5 inches of fluff since 8 PM. Seems to be ending at this time.

Posted February 1st at 11:02 PM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

Rob,

The problem is the we have been right “in the middle” of the trough so it is pushing the cold air directly over us and the coastals south. For CNY to get a good solid noreaster the eastern edge of the trough needs to be right along the east coast and this tends to happen vwhen storms out west ride directly down the spine of the rockies. T

Posted February 1st at 11:03 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Well then that better change because I don’t like it! The GFS is trending north with the storm tonight. I guess that gives us some hope. Been snowing lightly here. I had .3” on the car.

Posted February 1st at 11:12 PM
Adam Musyt:

14,16,

I think that’s right. So far this season we’ve seen cold air really dig in to the south. The El Nino that we were worried about is now weakening and aside from exerting its influence for a time in mid-January (when CA was getting pounded with heavy rain and snow)...it really has not lived up to expectations.

The cold air we’ve seen (remember January 10th was the coldest morning since January 22, 2005) has actually been too much of a good thing for snow lovers. Cold air masses from Canada have served to keep the storm track more to the south than usual. There have been some healthy storms that have formed. In fact, metro Washington has seen three doozies. Reagan National Airport is up to 24” of snow so far this season. The normal for the season to date is only 8” – so this has been a highly unusual season. In fact, Dulles is at 27”...and that is only a shade shy of many locations in New York State.

So to answer your question, I think it’s really just been a string of bad luck. The -NAO and +PNA have helped with the phasing. We’ve just been at the wrong place and the wrong time for big synoptic events, and slightly weaker Canadian high pressure ridges would help us out a good measure to help our snowfall tallies catch up to normal.

Posted February 1st at 11:25 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Thanks Adam. BUF has their monthly totals out for their area. They got Fulton down for 18.3” for the month. They had 55” in two days!

Posted February 1st at 11:59 PM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Groundhog has seen his shadow, and proclaims 6 more weeks of winter. Are we all that surprised? No.

Not to spoil the fun of the day, but there isn’t any science behind groundhog day. One morning’s cloud cover has no relavance to what will happen over the next 6 weeks.

Posted February 2nd at 7:26 AM
MG(Point Rock):

Posted February 2nd at 8:24 AM
MG(Point Rock):

I picked up 3.5 inches of new snow since sunset. It’s very light and fluffy, only 0.05” water content.
Phil, it’s good to see you out of your hole!

Posted February 2nd at 8:26 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

I picked up .8” of snow last night.

Posted February 2nd at 10:39 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

0.8” in Utica overnight, putting our season total to 47.0”

Posted February 2nd at 11:55 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

What a difference a year can make. with the inch I picked up overnight brings my seasonal total to 113.275 inches; the seasonal total up Groundhog day last year was 212.2 inches. Snow wise it’s been a extremely mild winter so far in northern Oneida and southern Lewis counties

Posted February 2nd at 12:18 PM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

12z models continue to bring us ~24 hour period of very light snow. Granted, it won’t be all that much but QPF over the event is 0.14” (NAM). That translates to about 2” of snow (~1” tonight/~1” tomorrow).

Posted February 2nd at 12:23 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

That should say.

What a difference a year can make. The inch I picked up overnight brings my seasonal total to 113.275 inches; the seasonal total up thru Groundhog’s day last year was 212.2 inches. Snow wise it’s been a extremely mild winter so far in northern Oneida and southern Lewis counties

Posted February 2nd at 12:25 PM
randy Vitullo :

Holland Patent is behind by at least 40 inches. I did some cutting of trees on the trails last year at the end of January. The stumps are 10 inches above the packed ski trail. This would indicate a major lack of snowfall this season. Ten inches of packed trail is at least 40, if not 50 or 60 inches of lake effect snow. Thankfully, cold air has persisted, with the one notable exception (Monday, 25, January) since 06 December.

Posted February 2nd at 2:42 PM
Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

Picked up a half inch of fluff last night and early this am. Total is now 47 inches even for the season now.. Looking back at last year I agree with randy we are seriously behind on our snowpack this year. Maybe a pattern change later in the future will help us out in the snow department

Posted February 2nd at 8:20 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

If DC gets that storm Saturday, that’ll be three winter storms in 7 days, which has got to be a record. The GFS is still creeping this way…we still got a chance.

Posted February 2nd at 11:12 PM
Adam Musyt:

Yep. It’s trending further N. We’ll see how well the trend holds. NAM is trying to do the same thing too.

Posted February 2nd at 11:13 PM
Adam Musyt:

30,

From NWS LWX

1.5” so far at BWI
2.0” at Dulles
0.5” at Reagan Nat’l – but that was only through 9 PM.

Posted February 2nd at 11:26 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Yeah the snow ratios are probably only 8:1 with this event. Temps are right around freezing. The Euro and GFS hit them again next week too! Things are getting active, I just hope we get involved.

Posted February 2nd at 11:36 PM
fairfield:

please hit us good, please, lots of snow

Posted February 3rd at 12:19 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Here are some more reports from NWS:

GERRARDSTOWN 6.5”
DAMASCUS 6.4”
CLARKSBURG 6.0”

These areas are in West Virginia, along the Appalachians. A general 3-6” looks to be the trend looking at the storm reports.

Posted February 3rd at 6:33 AM
MG(Point Rock):

Bill, Damascus and Clarksburg are in Montgomery County Maryland, about 20 miles NW of Washington, DC. I grew up in that area, and know it pretty well. When I was a kid, they never got snow the way they are getting it this year.

Posted February 3rd at 8:27 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

MG

You are correct…I was thinking of the wrong Clarksburg (WV).

Posted February 3rd at 8:41 AM
Andy (West Exeter):

Bill
What do you mean when you say snow south? Do you mean South of Utica and Otsego county is going to get some snow on Saturday or South of New York State?

Posted February 3rd at 9:42 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Andy,

It’s unrealistic to be specific for a forecast beyond 48 hours, but the storm is trending northward. We wanted to get the idea out there that some areas may see some flakes of snow on Saturday, in the southern part of our viewing area (south of rt 20). The next blog entry has more details.

Posted February 3rd at 10:52 AM

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