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Before we even cover the future, let's look back. What the heck happened this weekend? Take a look at the snow map, which is showing total snowfall from the lake effect this weekend. Click here to view. Notice, somehow, we got the lake band to punch inland all the way to Poland, which saw 8" total from the event. But, yet, even when the band was exactly aligned like it was there, we got nothing down the Mohawk Valley, nothing south of the Valley, and nothing in northeast Oneida County. Why? I am not sure to be 100% honest with you. But it is something I have posed to the folks at Binghamton and Albany. We'll get an answer eventually.

Now onto the future.

Light snow will move through tomorrow. Some enhancement may occur up north, which is why I've stuck those areas in the 1-3 inch range.

After that tomorrow night, we expect lake effect to take over. It appears, according to our in-house model, that a lake band will develop and head south toward the Valley overnight tomorrow. Then, it will whip back to the north on Wednesday morning, in response to an approaching shortwave. Then, it should sit up north for a bit. Granted, it will not be nearly as strong as we saw over the weekend, but there it shall sit, so the rich get richer. We may see some flakes may it all the way inland from Lake Erie south of Route 20. But this will probably not be serious...just a dusting at most I think.

Then on Thursday morning, as an Arctic cold front begins to push south, that lake snow will intensify a bit and begin to drop south. So we should see a squall line scenario on Thursday, where the broom sweeps the LES off the lake and inland. Situations like this usually lead to a coating to 2" areawide, with the highest amounts the further north you are. So I wouldn't expect much more than that, especially in the Mohawk Valley and points south.

Then on Thursday afternoon, the LES will have to reorganize itself. But since winds coming in behind this front are going to be NW or NNW, we will see multiple bands of flurries and a few squalls off the south end of the lake. The Valley and points north would likely get shut out, but Otsego, Madison and Chenango Counties will see occasional snow. How much? Too early to say. But a few inches are possible that way.

In addition, temperatures will hit the basement again. Cold weather returns Thursday and bitter cold stays with us Thursday night and Friday morning, before the long road upward begins.

Extended Range

Moderation. That's the key word to describe the 7-15 day range. As we head into February, here's the problem. There is good agreement among the GFS ensembles that the NAO will remain on the positive side of neutral (remember, blocking = cold = negative NAO). The PNA will remain negative as well (positive PNA = cold = blocking). The Arctic Oscillation, which was a great gauge to us last year remains ridiculously positive.

What does this mean? This means that there is no blocking, so you can forget about extended periods of cold/snow and favorable conditions for major East Coast storms through early February. The set up is just not right. So for winter lovers, you're going to have to enjoy what we have while we have it.

Still, you've got some tremendous cold in the Arctic and in Siberia. Again, the second we tap any of that, we go back into the freezer. But without the blocking, it doesn't do us much good. So we'll see what happens.

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Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

Sorry for it being so late but we got 1.7 inches in nh which brings our seasonal total to 54.85 in.

Posted January 21st at 9:06 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jimmy: Thanks! We'll take other seasonal totals too.

Posted January 21st at 9:16 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The temperature is down to 6, however I am surprised, because of the new snow, clear skies and dry air; I thought we would have been a little colder by now.

Posted January 21st at 10:31 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

At 47.5" now for the the season.

Posted January 21st at 10:52 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Seasonal total now at 101.5 inches. Just found out Pulaski received 42 inches over the weekend.

Posted January 21st at 11:07 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

4 degrees here. Too bad we can't get any blockbuster coastal storms going. I was out in New Hartford today, and couldn't believe how little snow they had on the ground compared to up this way. I guess I should be thankful that we have as much as we do here. I have to say that this system for tomorrow looks to have a nice amount of precip with it from looking at NWS national radar. I guess the question is how much actually makes it to the ground after the dry air eats up any moisture once it reaches us.

Posted January 22nd at 12:42 AM
Matt Lanza:

Michael: It's a double edged sword. Dry air will eat a lot of it before it hits the ground, and the total amount of moisture with this system has been trending down on the models consistently since yesterday. We'll see what happens.

Posted January 22nd at 1:14 AM
Matt ( CB):

Well we received between 6-8 inches depending on where you measure.Was down to Zero at 9 pm but up to 13 now at 5:15 am.I really thought it was gonna be much colder also witht he clear full moon nite.I'll take warm over cold.
We never lost our snow pack here and still had almost 6 inches of hard pack before this new snow.Does long term for Feb look above normal for temps?

Posted January 22nd at 5:25 AM
Gary (Schuyler) at work in Syracuse:

Matt et.al.,
The phenomenon you write about in the first part of your new entry is nothing new. I recall back as a kid in the 1960s watching the only area meteoroligist (Horace Meredith) out of Ch. 9 Syracuse. Even back then without the computer sophistication and analysis we have today, he had what I thought was a fairly good handle on lake effect. I can remember making my own lake effect projections using a road map. Yes, Utica can and does cash in on lake effect, but conditions have to be just right (temperature/dewpoint come into play). Particularly frustrating to me back then was to line up the winds on the map then see Fulton get clobbered (Utica typically is in the same trajectory with Fulton to bring les here) while we would get what we did this past weekend. I still feel the air dryness is a factor, but that's not a scientific approach, just an empirical conclusion. Also, when the winds are in line for Utica, via the Fulton route, there is more land to traverse than when the band is just a few miles northward. Look at some radar shots of this past weekend, that will be evident. I recall past les events seeing Utica in the bullseye, but the band coming onshore halfway between Oswego and Rochester. Then again, there are instances when the les band comes off the eastern end of Lake Ontario and hooks southward over the Tug, I've seen that, and Utica cashes in on accumulation. LES definitely has a mind of it's own.

I'm a radar engineer, part time radio show host, and I surely don't profess to be a weather expert. Just my observations from many years being a weather aficionado.

Posted January 22nd at 7:34 AM
Brian at Old Forge:

Matt you were right on the money last time with snowfall amounts in Old Forge. My estimate was way off. Only had 5 inches from last event. What does it look like for snowfall this time in Old Forge. Thanks for your accurate forecast.

Posted January 22nd at 8:20 AM
Matt Lanza:

Gary: Thanks for sharing those thoughts. It is interesting to say the least. I have gained a tremendous appreciation for forecasting in general since I moved up here. Every place has its challenges, but here they are unique.

Brian: I am hoping that once the lake snows kick in this time, they will be a little more normal than the last event. I was hoping you guys would get more with the last event, but the trajectory just never looked right. Unfortunately this time, while the lake snows may behave a little more "normal," the trajectory through tomorrow afternoon is looking more and more like a 260 flow (WSW winds). This would likely push snows too far north of you. At this point, I wouldn't expect much more than what you received this weekend (2-5) from today through tomorrow afternoon. We'll see though.

Matt in Cold Brook: There isn't much evidence to suggest that blocking jumps into play all of a sudden. This has been problematic since the calendar flipped. The one good thing in all this is what I mentioned at the end. The bitter cold in Siberia and Canada is there. All you need are a few good ingredient and we can tap into that. The pattern with La Nina winters, if you remember (and somehow the winter forecast has worked to a T so far), was for a cold December, a warm January, a mild February, but a change in the pattern late in February, lingering into March. If I had to make a call right now, I would say that through Valentine's Day, we stay on the mild side of things. But after the 14th or so, we should see a return to colder weather...not necessarily bitter cold, as seasonal conditions will moderate things anyway, but colder nonetheless. I smell the risk of above normal snow in March. We'll see.

Posted January 22nd at 9:52 AM
Matt Lanza:

Incidentally, I am going to try and begin work on a spring/summer forecast over the next couple weeks. I want to see if there are any signals either way.

Posted January 22nd at 9:56 AM
Andy Forestport:

Matt

Does feb look like above normal temps above freezing?

Posted January 22nd at 10:44 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Only ended up with 4" over the week-end - was expecting more especially when I went to Rome and they had the 9" on Sunday morning and we only had 2.5" - it snowed quite steadily up here but it was such a fine snow it did not accumulate quickly at all. Seasonal total up to 75.60".

Posted January 22nd at 10:55 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Looks like the dry air is winning out again.Radar showing some decent returns but nothing falling here.

Posted January 22nd at 11:09 AM
Brian:

I too found Gary's post interesting. It seems like Oneida Lake has some influence on the lake bands. It often appears that the band will break up or weaken over the lake (due to sinking air). Any truth to this Matt? Starting to snow here in Rome in the last few minutes.

Posted January 22nd at 11:32 AM
Karen ~~Westmoreland:

Beginning to snow here in Westmoreland and has become very windy as well...

Posted January 22nd at 11:34 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Made it down to the ground here too.Actually its snowing quite hard here.

Posted January 22nd at 11:35 AM
Matt Lanza:

Andy: Can't get that specific. Normal highs are near 30 through February, so I would bank on a few above freezing days at the very least.

Brian: That probably wouldn't be the case. I'm sure Oneida Lake has some influence on very localized weather between Sylvan Beach and maybe as far inland as Rome, but aside from that, it's too small an entity to really impact anywhere else in CNY.

Adam noted that Syracuse has 1.5 mi visibility and 44 mph winds. Winds were not supposed to be too serious today, so this is an interesting development. Back edge of the snow is almost through Cuse, so after that, we'll see the steady snow become much more sporadic.

Posted January 22nd at 11:49 AM
Becky West Leyden):

WE have a moderate snowfall here. The winds are SE at 22 mph.

Posted January 22nd at 12:00 PM
Michael (Utica):

Has anyone seen the weather update on the home page? What the heck is freezing fog???

Posted January 22nd at 12:42 PM
Tom:

Is there going to be more lake effect after this moves though?

Posted January 22nd at 12:46 PM
Becky (WEst Leyden):

Freezing fog is composed of supercooled water droplets that remain liquid even though the temperature is below freezing-point).

Posted January 22nd at 12:48 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Because of the SW winds the lake effect will start up around Watertown. Late this afternoon (4-5 pm) it should have moved south into lewis county maybe northern Oneida. I think it will stay North of the Mohawk Valley it should oscillate between Northern Oneida and central Lewis for the overnight.

Posted January 22nd at 12:54 PM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Matt, Do you think the Forestport Area up to White Lake will pick up any snow from the LES tonight and tommorow?

Posted January 22nd at 1:05 PM
Matt Lanza:

Michael: Becky answered it. You know what freezing rain is, right? Rain that falls onto a frozen surface and freezes on contact. Well freezing fog is the same idea...except it's basically mist that freezes and glazes everything.

Posted January 22nd at 1:05 PM
Mel (Westernville):

When I lived up in Anchorage, Alaska we had "Ice Fog" on a regular basis because we were next to the Ocean but the air was very cold.

Posted January 22nd at 2:32 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Getting Light to sometimes moderate snowfall. The winds are breezy (12-24 mph). We had one gust of 37 mph earlier.

Posted January 22nd at 2:39 PM
Bob E:

On a different note, I have been trying to look at the page with the sunrise/sunset times that is on the Weather frontpage, but it doesn't seem to load. Is something wrong with the page? I don't think it is my computer.

Posted January 22nd at 2:41 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Bob.... It's not your computer, I got the same thing yesterday.

Posted January 22nd at 2:47 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, why did the snow break up before reaching binghamton, the models were predicting it to break up, but i didnt beleive it, well iguess i was wrong lol

Posted January 22nd at 2:57 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Mike you didn't miss much.I barely got a 1/4" of snow herehere.According to radar it was snowing moderately for the last several hours but it wasn't.Estimates aorund lake Delta are 1/2-3/4" of precip.

Posted January 22nd at 3:27 PM
Lisa:

Any travel concerns for utica areas this afternoon and evening?

Posted January 22nd at 3:35 PM
Matt Lanza:

Light snow is possible this evening in and around Utica, but any travel problems should be well north of the city. Radar showing moderate snow in the North Country. Otherwise, not much doin'.

Mike: It broke up because the system was weakening a bit and the air over us is dry. Well handled by the models...just a little faster than thought.

Bob: I'll look into the sunset page later tonight.

Justin: THey'll get some snow, but probably not a lot.

Posted January 22nd at 3:40 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I read that wrong.Radar estimates are showing close to .50" precip to the north.

Posted January 22nd at 3:40 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

It is snowing Moderately here. we have picked up just about two inches.

Posted January 22nd at 3:42 PM
Becky (WEst Leyden):

NWS just issued a LES warning for Lewis Jefferson now - Wed. night.
saying rates could reach 3 inches per hour

Posted January 22nd at 3:46 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I know...i'm wondering if that band will sneak into the Pulaski and Parish regions.I think they need some more snow.

Posted January 22nd at 3:51 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Advisory up for N. Oneida....that's a good indication Oswego County would get hit pretty good again.

Posted January 22nd at 3:59 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):
Here's what the NWS is saying for my neck of the woods...

Tonight: Periods of snow showers with patchy blowing snow, mainly between 8pm and midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 14. West wind between 7 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
I'm excited. It seems these storms sneak up on me. I swear I was watching a Syracuse station Sunday evening and Mark hinted at some LES for us.
Posted January 22nd at 4:04 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Odd that stars boldface things here. Meant to not be bold. Sorry.

Posted January 22nd at 4:05 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Rob... You're right, the Parish and Pulaski will probably see another foot or so.

Posted January 22nd at 4:10 PM
Matt Lanza:

Drawing maps in a moment, but a couple things. For being such an Arctic blast, I question how much bite this will have. Looks like winds and clouds could prevent temperatures from venturing too far below normal. In fact, I brought high temps up about 2+ degrees every day from Thursday onward.

Secondly, regarding LES... going with about 4-8" tonight on the northern Tug, 2-4" up to the Black River Valley and into EXTREME NW Oneida, not even including Camden. Then Tr-2" elsewhere.

For tomorrow, I will probably be drawing 4-8" a little wider for much of southern Lewis, excluding the Black River Valley and encroaching on Old Forge. 2-4" for the rest of northern Oneida and Tr-2" north of Route 20 elsewhere. Maps coming soon.

Posted January 22nd at 4:28 PM
Matt Lanza:

Snowfall map for tonight

Snowfall map for Wednesday

Posted January 22nd at 4:56 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Just called home and they say we got 3-4" so far today.

Posted January 22nd at 4:58 PM
Brian:

Matt just about four inches here at Old Forge so far today. Snow is still coming down. Hope we get on some of that les tomorrow. One question, what do think made snowfall more intense today?

Posted January 22nd at 5:01 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

WE have three and a half inches. The snow has lightened up from what it was an hour ago.

Posted January 22nd at 6:06 PM
Betsi ~West Leyden:

Just a curious question .,,,News 10 Now said we suppost to get over a foot in lewis county tommorrow is that true????????,,,,SNOW ALL DAY LONG HEAVY AT TIMES?

Posted January 22nd at 6:31 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Betsi....I saw the same thing, I don't know if there right. Tonight were in the 4-6 inch range. My guess for tomorrow is around 10. Time will tell :)

Posted January 22nd at 7:09 PM
stevo (rome):

lol dave eichorn of 9wsyr is calling for 12"+ here in rome. whats going on here? why cant we ever get you guys to have even a little similar forecast? they all are always EXTREMLY different.

Posted January 22nd at 7:20 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

If you all want to wonder about WSYR's forecast, complain on THEIR blog. Also, Eichorn is not calling for 12"+ in Rome. Head on over to their website and look at the map. Rome is under the "Rome", and the blueness stops before the words.

Posted January 22nd at 7:22 PM
Matt Lanza:

Stevo: That's just how it goes. Every meteorologist has their own opinions based on their experiences and draws their own conclusions. You will very rarely see forecasts agree. There's always some difference. That's the beauty of it!

Posted January 22nd at 7:48 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, thanks for answering my question early, keep up the good work. ok one more question lol, do you think winds will go NNW enough for the finger lakes to get going at some point in time thursday into friday?

Posted January 22nd at 8:03 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: We could certainly see some FLES later on Thursday and Thursday night I think. Updating the forecast discussion on wktv.com now. I'll be around for questions if you've got em!

Posted January 22nd at 8:15 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Arctic front just approaching Syracuse with a pretty heavy squall line.Matt do you think the LES could even drop this far south for awhile tonight?

Posted January 22nd at 8:28 PM
Matt Lanza:

The Arctic front is going to blast through here tonight with a vengeance. Several lightning strikes going on along this front, so thundersnow is possible/likely north of Utica as it moves through. Squalls will be brief, but will be very heavy, with a quick coating to 2" possible. This is especially true north of Route 20. South of there, brief squalls with lighter snow are expected. LES will develop in the wake of this squall line, initially close to the Valley, but it will lift north as the night goes on. I may need to tweak snowfall amounts up a bit, but in most instances, I wouldn't expect more than 3 or 4 inches.

Posted January 22nd at 8:43 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

BUF radar showing a 290 flow behind the front for awhile it looks like.Also saw some lightning with the front by Oswego.

Posted January 22nd at 8:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

Quick new entry is up

Posted January 22nd at 8:50 PM

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