Weather Blog | Mild weather returns (again)

Home / CNY Weather Blog / Mild weather returns (again)

Our bout of lake effect snow overnight will be short lived as drier air builds back into the area today. Overnight totals weren't all that impressive locally, with the higher end snows between 3-4". Our season total in Utica stands at a puny 29.7", which is nearly 40" below the seasonal average for today's date.

Will this unusual weather continue or will things change?

The answer is in the title! The few opportunities we've had for precipitation have come from western runners or glancing shots of lake effect. This week, there aren't too many opportunities to build a snowpack. In fact, if anything we'll probably lose what we picked up last night. Another western runner is in the lineup for Thursday. As with any mid winter western runner, the potential for a bit of sleet/freezing rain is possible on the onset. However, the lack of cold air all winter has played a significant role in reduced the chances for ice events. So, it's something we aren't too concerned about yet, but will continue to watch.

Lake effect on Friday?

The western runner does pull in cooler air on Friday. Upper air temperatures are cold enough to support lake effect snow. Where exactly it setups up is impossible to say this far in advance. We'll have a better idea by Wednesday or Thursday.

Trends late February...

So this looks like another lackluster week of winter. Looking down the road, we can't see individual storms clearly, but we can pick up on some trends. Here's a helpful tool when looking at long range weather patterns from the Penn State EWALL: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html (this is a good one to bookmark and follow on a regular basis)

On the left hand side are the upper level air pattern trends, followed by a spaghetti plot diagram on the right. These tools are helpful in diagnosing pattern changes and forecasting confidence. The spaghetti plot is an ensemble (many models in one) that is used to weigh the confidence in a forecast. The closer and more consistent the lines, the more likely the scenario will play out. What it shows is a trend toward colder weather in the mid section of the country toward the latter half of February.

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Jimmy (New Hartford):

Seasonal Total here is 29.7 inches.

Posted February 13th at 3:06 PM
mike w (HERKIMER):

Picked up 1.5” overnight, seasonal total is 23.8”..

Posted February 13th at 4:53 PM
Gordon (Northwestern):

Didn’t get it posted earlier, but 1.9” of LE last night, which gives me 50.2” for the season.

Posted February 13th at 5:39 PM
Tom (Richfield Springs):

19 degrees, light breeze, partly cloudy. Happy Valentines Day weather watchers!

Posted February 14th at 5:12 AM
Lori (Bridgeport):

Happy Valentines Day …..25 degrees here this morning….......once again didnt bother to shovel because the snow melted the next day ….........almost back to green.

Posted February 14th at 6:00 AM
Nick (West Winfield,NY):

Happy V day everyone…... 24 degrees here with a light breeze.

Posted February 14th at 6:04 AM
Art (Oriskany Falls):

I will never forget this day in the year of 1979.
In O.Falls the temp that morning was 32 degrees below zero.
We had a whole week or more of this and the temp never got above 0 degrees.
Every morning the temp was either -26* or
-32* except on Friday the temp did get to +15* but Saturday and Sunday it went right back to -26 and -27.
Lots of problems in the area.

Posted February 14th at 7:45 AM
Art (Oriskany Falls):

HAPPY VALENTINES DAY.
I didn’t make it to work in 1979. You got it, my car wouldn’t start.

Posted February 14th at 7:47 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Today is also the 5th anniversary of the Valentine’s Day Blizzard. Some pictures here:

http://www.wktv.com/news/5816771.html

Posted February 14th at 8:28 AM
sue (fairfield):

Ahhhhh. Bill, those were the good old days lol

Posted February 14th at 9:28 AM
Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

2007. That was a good winter once it started.

Posted February 14th at 10:32 AM
Randy HP (Holland Patent):

I remember that cold snap in 1979. My wife’s car wouldn’t start. It was cold for nearly two weeks straight. I lived in Waterville then.

Posted February 14th at 12:08 PM
Randy HP (Holland Patent):

Model games. The GFS is showing an all snow event for Thursday evening through Friday? That would be something. I won’t count on it, but it does show it.

Posted February 14th at 12:11 PM
Mel (Westernville):

A little very fine light snow started here.

Posted February 14th at 2:44 PM
Tom (Richfield Springs):

31 degrees, mostly calm, overcast, only a few flakes of snow overnight.

Posted February 15th at 5:10 AM
Denys (East Winfield):

30 degrees, calm, overcast, a few flakes flying around out there. A dusting of snow on the ground.

Posted February 15th at 5:13 AM
Norm (Floyd, NY):

34* here this morning.

Looking forward to a “little” snow.

Posted February 15th at 5:43 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Morning all. We may actually have a storm to watch for the weekend. GFS hooks the storm much farther north, though the other models keep it well south. I’m a fan of northern trending storms…especially this year. Very early to tell what will happen…but something to watch over the next few days.

Posted February 15th at 5:46 AM
Nick (West Winfield,NY):

323 degrees here at the moment.

Posted February 15th at 5:48 AM
Nick (West Winfield,NY):

32 degrees here not 323.

Posted February 15th at 5:50 AM
MG (Point Rock):

31 degrees here, with light snow. 0.3” fresh accumulation overnight, just enough to slick up the back roads.

Posted February 15th at 8:04 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Picked up .3” of light fluffy snow between last evening around dinner time and this morning and it has covered everything up nicely.

Posted February 15th at 8:48 AM
Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

Couple of flurries this morning. A little icy out there too.

Posted February 15th at 9:40 AM
Gordon (Northwestern):

Like Mel, and MG, I also picked up .3” of snow since last evening. However my new snow is wet and great for snowball making. Still snowing lightly and current temp. is 34.

Posted February 15th at 10:02 AM
Art (Oriskany Falls):

It just started to snow a bit here. It’s not even sticking to the deck because the temp, is 35 degrees right now.
How am I suppose to measure something like this???

Posted February 15th at 10:42 AM
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