Memorial Weekend Outlook

Posted May 21st, 2009 by Adam Musyt. 38 comments

Our weekend forecast is beginning to become more clear.  The forecasting issues revolve around a lazy front that will be crossing the region over the next few days.  As of this writing, late Thursday evening, the cold front is crossing Western Ontario.  The system will slowly sag to the south over the next couple of days. 

Friday will start with a mix of clouds and sun.  The cold front will cross the area during the day but since there is not a whole lot of moisture to work with, we only expect a couple of very widely scattered showers or thunderstorms across CNY.  The best chance of a thunderstorm will be over the elevated terrain, and across areas south of Route 20, where the frontal passage will coincide with the time of day (midafternoon) when we see maximum solar heating.  It appears that the vast majority of Friday will be dry, despite a few popup storms and with 850 mb temperatures near 12 degrees, temperature readings shouldn't have too much trouble reaching well into the 70's to near 80.

On Saturday this front will stall out as a stationary front just to the southeast of the local area.  As a bit of mid-level energy moves along this frontal boundary and combines with a little help from warm late May sun, this looks to be our best chance for most of CNY to see a scattering of showers and thunderstorms.  Even here, an all day rain event is not anticipated at this point.  An umbrella may come in handy though from time to time.

After the chance of a few showers or thunderstorms early Sunday our computer model progs point to high pressure building in and squashing our Mid-Atlantic stationary front just a bit further to the south.  At this point dry weather would return by later Sunday and last into Memorial Day with sunshine and pleasant afternoon temperatures in the lower to middle 70's.

So, right now it's looking like good news for the Holiday.  It is important to stress that *everything* in this forecast will hange upon the exact placement of the frontal boundary as we go through the weekend.  As such, the forecast is a bit more volatile than usual, but we will keep a close eye on things here in the blog through the weekend.  Enjoy!

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  1. teri deerfield:

    Dang! I was hoping for some T’storms!

    Posted May 22nd at 6:29 AM

  2. Working in Utica:

    Sweeeet!!! Thanks, Adam!! Hopefully this holds true, and we have that great weather on Monday. Keep our fingers crossed!!

    Posted May 22nd at 8:00 AM

  3. jes:

    Adam
    Are we expecting any severe weather?

    Posted May 22nd at 12:08 PM

  4. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Jes: No severe weather is in the forecast

    Posted May 22nd at 12:12 PM

  5. jes:

    Thanks Jill. How about Saturday and Sundy.

    Posted May 22nd at 1:29 PM

  6. Working in Utica:

    Yup…working on the Saturday of Memorial Day Weekend…UGH!! Did get a great night of sleep, though, with the cool temps down in the valley last night. Temp was 59 degrees when I turned in.

    Posted May 23rd at 9:01 AM

  7. Jill Reale (Utica):

    A few showers moving through central Oneida and Herkimer counties this morning. Looks like we will run the risk of a few pop up showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Nothing widespread or severe but if you do have any outdoor plans, just bring an umbrella and keep an eye to the sky. The best chance for precipitation will be south of the Mohawk Valley.

    Posted May 23rd at 10:15 AM

  8. Jill Reale (Utica):

    ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN OTSEGO COUNTY...

    • AT 458 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EXETER CENTER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

    • THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
    RICHFIELD SPRINGS AT 510 PM EDT... SPRINGFIELD AT 525 PM EDT... EAST SPRINGFIELD AT 530 PM EDT... CHERRY VALLEY AT 535 PM EDT...

    THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
    AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

    THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND COULD
    CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RADAR
    RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN OTSEGO
    COUNTY. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL IN THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

    Posted May 23rd at 5:04 PM

  9. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Looks like we have som popping going on. Another Storm just issued a warning in Northern Broome, Southern Cortland area.

    Posted May 23rd at 5:06 PM

  10. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Severe Thunderstorm warning has been issued for Southern Chenango County until 7:15pm

    Posted May 23rd at 6:21 PM

  11. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Patrol officers reporting penny size hail in Greene in southern Chenango county. Report sent to Cocorahs.

    Posted May 23rd at 6:36 PM

  12. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Couldn’t ask for a better weekend, it’s not too hot or too cold. We definitely could use some rain though as things are drying up quick. GFS gives us 3”+ of rain next week so I think are mini drought will be over soon.

    Posted May 24th at 12:32 PM

  13. Tony - CNYWeather (Westmo):

    BRRR Got down to 40 degrees this morning.

    Posted May 25th at 7:27 AM

  14. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah I had 39 here this morning. They’ll probably issue a frost advisory for us tonight. Here it is Memorial Day and we’re still talking about frost!

    Posted May 25th at 9:43 AM

  15. Rob (Whitesboro):

    There’s a SKYWARN class in Marcy on June 2nd.
    https://apps.weather.gov/outreach/7639.php

    Posted May 25th at 11:56 AM

  16. Jill Reale (Utica):

    The overnight low for May 36th is 34 degrees, so that may be at jeopardy for tonight. Some much needed rain is going to arrive by tomorrow night and last into Thursday. I hope everyone got to go out and enjoy this fantastic holiday weekend!

    Posted May 25th at 11:03 PM

  17. John (Ohio):

    36 degrees here currently

    Posted May 26th at 6:49 AM

  18. MG(Point Rock):

    Low of 34 here this morning, with patchy frost.

    Posted May 26th at 8:02 AM

  19. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Another BITTER night here in my sheltered home! Down to 28 degrees, I hope my grass seed survived it!

    Posted May 26th at 10:46 AM

  20. Bets(West Leyden):

    On radar showing lots of rain moved in with yellows are we under any bad weather? been cold today for being end of May.temps 55* any bad weather expected

    Posted May 26th at 9:19 PM

  21. Gordon (Westernville):

    Was hoping to get some rain tonight. Nothing as of 10:30 PM. Planted my garden a week ago today. No rain at my house since I planted it, and the ground was dry then. Guess if we don’t get any rain Wed. or Thurs., I will have to Water it by hand. 1.65” of rain for the month, and it all came in the first 16 days.

    Posted May 26th at 10:32 PM

  22. Working in Utica:

    Well, Gordon, you certainly got your wish for rain….pouring cats and dogs down in Ilion this morning!

    Posted May 27th at 8:12 AM

  23. MG(Point Rock):

    Gordon, I’m surprised you’re so dry. I’m not that far from you and I have 4.86 inches for the month. It is true that 2.26” fell in the storms on the 16th — maybe they missed you. At any rate, the last 10 days have been dry everywhere—until today.

    Posted May 27th at 8:19 AM

  24. LM-whitesboro:

    wktv weather team…any way to be a little more specific with tomorrow’s forecast? Its the 1st Saranac Thursday, will we clear out by 5-6 pm?

    Posted May 27th at 8:49 AM

  25. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    When it rains it pours!! Total of 1.54” of rain in the Cocorahs gauge this morning. I hope it stays dry long enough to get to Oneonta today and my shed to be built tomorrow!

    Posted May 27th at 9:30 AM

  26. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    I’m not sure how accurate this is but our rain gage is showing 3-3/4” of rain for the month.
    The rain last night and this morning measures
    1-1/4” so far.

    Posted May 27th at 9:42 AM

  27. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Quite a bit of rain fell just this morning in the valley towns of Herkimer County. Some minor flooding being reported there. I think tomorrow should be interesting as we’ll be in a tropical airmass. There’s been loads of thunderstorms in this airmass the last few days. Very humid as well.

    Posted May 27th at 9:49 AM

  28. Bill Kardas:

    LM,

    We’re going to be in an unsettled weather pattern tomorrow too. There’s a better chance for wet weather than dry weather tomorrow evening. Unfortunately, that’s about the best I can do. This kind of weather pattern is challenging to forecast the specific timing of rain. We normally look at specific weather features (cold fronts, warm fronts, low pressure centers) to bring us precipitation. However, in this kind of pattern, with very moist air, a bird can sneeze and it would cause a shower. Better to plan for the worst and hope for the best.

    Posted May 27th at 10:21 AM

  29. Mel (Westernville):

    Only .26” of rain here but it has been very chilly. Can;t believe had to light the woodstove this late in the year to take the chill off.

    Posted May 27th at 2:28 PM

  30. John (Ohio):

    No kidding, trying to avoid lighting it as well, but WOW not looking good seven days out!

    Posted May 27th at 4:13 PM

  31. cedarville:

    has anyone heard of a mudslide on theilion gorge if so where is it located

    Posted May 27th at 5:06 PM

  32. Sue in Stratford:

    What is the weather looking like for this weekend?

    Posted May 27th at 7:58 PM

  33. Koz:

    The mudslide is just below the old Big Pine. I went by it this afternoon just after it happened, it’s in the area that they were working a few weeks ago, covered just about both lanes of the road.

    Posted May 27th at 9:22 PM

  34. Adam Musyt:

    Hi gang. Our computer models have been all over the map over the past few days over the weekend forecast. I want to see one more run before I write something in-depth. We’ll have a weekend outlook posted tomorrow.

    Posted May 27th at 10:41 PM

  35. Rob (Whitesboro):

    First Tropical Depression of the year has formed in the Atlantic. Here is a link to some storm photos and radar imageries from the May 16th tornadic storms.
    http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/bgm/WeatherEvents/Severe/may162009/

    Posted May 28th at 11:29 AM

  36. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Warm front must be getting pretty close to us. SYR dewpoint just shot up to 69 degrees.

    Posted May 28th at 11:49 AM

  37. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    HPC has us in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall today. Flash Flood Guidance indicates only 0.8-1.0” inch of rain is needed in a three hour span to trigger Flash Flooding.

    Posted May 28th at 11:55 AM

  38. Adam Musyt:

    New entry up.

    Posted May 28th at 8:51 PM

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