It's been consistently humid here for the first half of August. While temperatures during the day have been slightly above normal, the overnight lows have been impressively high. Two days so far this month haven't gone below 70, with 7 days of lows in the 60s. The humidity has a lot to do with the warm nights. We aren't going to shake the humidity anytime soon, and it looks like summer 2010 will stay warm heading into early fall. Let's explore why...
Warm ocean temperatures and hurricane development
It's been a hot summer not only here, but for most of the country and world. Take a look at the sea surface temperature anomalies. Anamolies show a "departure from normal". The warm colors indicate above normal sea surface temperatures, the cooler colors below normal temperatures. Notice that there is a lot more warmer anomalies on the map compared to cooler anomalies. This is a result of a very warm spring and early summer across the planet.
Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic are above normal, and will likely stay above normal heading into the fall. This was one of the reasons why the NWS was highly concerned about hurricane development this year. Warm ocean temperatures provide the energy needed to develop tropical systems. The problem though is that you need more than just fuel to start a fire. The trigger mechanisms in the Atlantic just haven't been in the right place at the right time. We've seen many systems try to develop, only to fall apart by wind shear. It's still reasonable to forsee an active hurricane season from here on out, but there may be other forces at work here that we don't fully grasp.
Ocean temperatures have a major influence on climate. Ocean temperatures can influence the strength and placement of jet streams. The jet stream is the river of air that separates cold and warm air. The jet stream is also a highway for storm systems.
A warm Atlantic ocean does favor warmer weather along the immediate East Coast. The warm ocean temperatures tend to bend the jet stream a bit further north in the east...but in order to get a better idea of what may happen, we have to look at the Pacific too.
La Nina & an early fall outlook
La Nina is developing quite well in the Pacific. La Nina is what happens when trade winds weaken in the Pacific Ocean. This brings cooler ocean temperatures to the Eastern Pacific. With the combination of warm temperatures in the Atlantic and cooler temperatures in the Pacific, there's a higher probability that the northeast will stay warm into the fall. The predominant jet stream favors higher heights and more ridging for the northeast in this kind of pattern. That would bring warmer than normal temperatures and higher than normal levels of humidity for the remainder of the month through at least early fall. As always, it will be the individual storms that ultimately dictate the weather on a daily basis. We will still see bursts of cool, dry weather, but perhaps not as frequently heading into the early fall.
Comments
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CJ:
I was just wondering if anyone has any idea as to what the weather is looking like for next weekend (8/21). I have an outdoor get-together planned and I’m keeping my fingers crossed that the weather will be nice. (Farmer’s Almanac long range forecast indicated “heavy rains, chilly”-hoping that is not the case!)
Posted August 12th at 11:38 AM
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Jill Reale (Utica):
Rain looks to stay south of the Thruway for this afternoon and evening.
CJ:
We won’t have a solid answer for you until tomorrow afternoon or Saturday morning. Forecasting this far out is like playing weather darts.
Posted August 12th at 2:08 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
The temp is 70/65.
Posted August 12th at 5:54 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Skies are fairly clear up here, So it looks like I will be able to see the Perseids shower. Like Jmd has been saying, for anyone who wants to see them, the best times to view are after midnight and before dawn, with the best activity around 3 a.m. to 4 a.m. local time. Best conditions are a clear, dark sky away from city lights.
Posted August 12th at 10:32 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
I had was able to watch the perseids early this morning. I had great sky conditions 2:30-3:30 am.
Should be cloudy but dry for everyone today, the only exception might be Oswego, Lewis, and Jefferson counties where the potential exist for a few scattered showers this afternoon. There will be a cold front approaching the area Saturday. If anyone read the forecast discussion you saw where the NWS thought Isentropic lifting may cause some showers during the overnight sunday morning. In case some of are thinking, What is Isentropic lift? Isentrophic lifting is where you have an air mass overriding another due to the air masses having different densities. (Cold air is more dense than warm air). Essentially, these air masses are trying to move into areas with the same density. I’ll use a warm-front as an example. A warm front is where you have warmer air (less dense) overriding colder air (more dense). Since warm air is lighter, it’s trying to move into an area with the same density which is above the cold air. The same applies to the colder air at the surface. This mechanism leads to lifting in the atmosphere. Isentrophic lift occurs in areas where you find warm-air advection This is why warm fronts tend to bring widespread light to moderate precipitation. The uplift is at a lower angle than uplift that is generally associated with cold fronts and thunderstorms.
Posted August 13th at 12:28 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
I find it hard to believe with all this humidity we’ve had this summer, we didn’t have a great thunderstorm season. This is hard to say with all the tornadoes but overall I wasn’t impressed. I’m guessing the lack of cold pockets aloft are to blame….leading to low lapse rates. I guess we still have some time…but not much.
Posted August 13th at 1:28 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Also, there’s a buoy about 40 miles east of Oswego reading 77 degrees for a surface temp over the lake.
Posted August 13th at 1:30 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Whoops….make that west.
Posted August 13th at 1:31 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
I agree, overall the lapse rates weren’t overly impressive this summer; the days we had a fairly steep lapse rate the timing of the frontal passage was off or we had too much shear. We also had quite a few days that had a moderate cap.
Posted August 13th at 3:21 PM
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Bob (Cooperstown):
Very nasty cell just northeast of the village very dark skies dead calm bearly shows on radar
Posted August 13th at 6:02 PM
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Justafarmer:
The forecast for today, Sunday was certainly off the mark and fooled a lot of farmers into cutting hay, just to get rained on. With all the technology available you would think our “meteorologists” could do better.
Posted August 15th at 9:32 AM
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Jill Reale (Utica):
Justafarmer,
We have been forecasting the chance of rain for several days now. The timing of this shortwave have been changing over the last several days but we have been advertising that there will be some scattered showers this afternoon, with some sprinkles to the south of Utica this morning.
Posted August 15th at 9:52 AM
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sn (forestport):
kind of chilly this morning – and the breeze – feels more like fall up this way – perfect for drying my laundry if the rain holds off – have a great day everyone. :)
Posted August 15th at 10:12 AM
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Sara:
Jill are we expecting severe weather today tonight or Mon?
Posted August 15th at 10:49 AM
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Jill Reale (Utica):
Sara,
No, with the lack of sun and instability we will not see sever storms or even that many thunderstorms for today. Late tonight into tomorrow, we may see one or two strong storms with the passing of the cold front but the best chances will be to our east.
Posted August 15th at 12:37 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
temp is 65.
There is a outside chance that western NY could see a few strong storms However, for this area the cloud cover will keep instability in check so the chance for severe weather is slim to none this afternoon. The biggest threat today will be heavy rain from any thunderstorms that do develop.
Posted August 15th at 12:42 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
been having rain showers, Moderate rain is moving into Utica.
Posted August 15th at 2:48 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Haven’t had a day like this all summer. Didn’t even hit 70 degrees here yet. It’s 68 right now.
Posted August 15th at 3:10 PM
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Jill Reale (Utica):
New entry up
Posted August 15th at 9:32 PM
Add a Comment
Only registered accounts may post comments to the blog. To register a new account or login, select the appropriate link in the header and follow the instructions. (note: all accounts are subject to approval by WKTV.)Recent Comments on this Entry
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Jill Reale (Utica)
August 15th, 9:32 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro)
August 15th, 3:10 PM
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Becky (West Leyden)
August 15th, 2:48 PM
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Becky (West Leyden)
August 15th, 12:42 PM
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Jill Reale (Utica)
August 15th, 12:37 PM
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Sara
August 15th, 10:49 AM
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sn (forestport)
August 15th, 10:12 AM
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Jill Reale (Utica)
August 15th, 9:52 AM
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Justafarmer
August 15th, 9:32 AM
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Bob (Cooperstown)
August 13th, 6:02 PM
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