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Let me preface this by saying that I'm purposely not going to go in depth on the Monday storm. The 18Z model runs subtlely shifted closer to the coast. We would need to see that at 00Z for it to mean anything. I'll post some analysis in the comments section as those runs come in, but in the meantime, I'm thinking light snow/flurries...a flizzard, if you will on Monday and Tuesday. Total accumulation may match what we've seen so far this month (3.0"), if that. So maybe I'm being a bit cynical, but you kind of have to be, given how things have unfolded this month. Personally, I appreciate the break from the cold/snow, but watching basically the entire snowpack shrivel up into oblivion over the course of less than a week is a bit disheartening. But, now we focus on the rebuilding and recovery effort. We're going to get some atmospheric help by the end of next week, courtesy of what I'm terming, the Arctic Express. I'll be showing a movie at 11 tonight explaining this further, but by next Thursday, this map of 850 mb temperatures basically sums things up. The deepest magentas indicate 850 mb temperatures of -25 or so. The GFS and Euro continue to advertise this blast of below normal Arctic air for this time of year plunging through the Plains and into the Northeast. Here's a map for the 8 to 10 day average 500 mb height anomaly in North America from the Euro and GFS. Basically, blue means cold; deep blue means much colder than normal. You catch my drift. You will need to break back out the winter coats by next weekend. Given that climatologically, the peak of winter occurs between January 15 and 27 (coldest average temperatures: Hi: 28, Lo: 13), it could be very cold around here if this comes to fruition.

So what about LES? Boy, we haven't heard about lake effect in awhile, have we? Well, it's far too early to say. But honestly, I don't like the trajectory of how this is coming into the U.S. It looks too sharp to me to get me excited for lake effect at this point. But, come on, forecasting LES is tough enough 24 hours out, let alone 10 days out. So we'll hold out hope. But that's just my instinct at this juncture.

Looking Back

How warm was it this past week? Here are average temperatures (combination of high and low) from this past week:

Monday: 47
Tuesday: 54
Wednesday: 50
Thursday: 37
Friday: 42

Average Temperature for this week in January: 21.5 degrees.

That 54 degree average temperature on Tuesday? That's normal for May 7! In fact, usually, we can attribute weird statistics like that to a high temperature being excessive or a low temperature being excessive. In this instance, both the high and low matched up perfectly for an early-mid May day. Considering the fact that we still had snow on the ground and the low sun angle, the warmth of this past week is absolutely astounding, and may be something we never see again.

In case you missed my comments from last night, January on the whole has been absurd since 1995....and not just warm either. It has been extreme on both sides of the coin. Check this out....

Since January 1995, we have set:

12 January Record Highs
21 January Record Highest Lows (22 if we don't drop below 36 before midnight, which we probably won't).

8 Record Lows
10 Record Lowest Highs

First of all, assuming today's record falls, 56% of all warm temperature records in January will have fallen since 1995. Additionally, 29% of all cold temperature records will have fallen as well. In total, 42% of all temperature records for January will have been broken in 13 years! Now, some of you will say "global warming," but let's think about this. Utica's weather records go back about 100 years. The early 1900s and the 1930s were notoriously warm periods as well, and unfortunately, there are a few gaps in Utica's weather data from those years, meaning several records that have been broken may not be legitimate.

So to counteract that, I looked at the two closest locations with official NWS data. Binghamton's records only go back to 1951, so it doesn't help. But Syracuse's go back to 1906.

Syracuse has had 9 record highs, and 9 record highest lows since 1995. But they have also had 8 record lows and 6 record lowest highs. So 29% of January warm temperature records and 22.5% of January cold temperature records have been broken since 1995 at Syracuse.

Since Binghamton's records only go back to 1952, check out the numbers there. There have been 17 record highs and 17 record highest lows. But only 6 record lows and 7 record lowest highs. That's 55% of all warm temperature records compared to 21% of all cold temperature records.

For the heck of it, here's Buffalo and Rochester. Their records go back well into the 1800s.

Buffalo has had 10 record highs and 7 record warmest lows since 1995 in January, compared to 6 record lows and 2 coldest highs. That's 27% of warm records and 13% of cold records.

At Rochester, there have been 8 record highs and 7 record warmest lows in January since '95. There have been 5 record lows and 2 record coldest highs. This translates to 24% of warm records and 11% of cold records.

Clearly the warm records have outdone the cold ones, but 11-23% of cold temperature records in 13 years is very impressive.

The bottom line is that we've been involved in a lot of extreme weather over the last 15 years or so. One thing I will point out regarding temperatures. If you took my list back to 1994, you would notice a significant increase in the cold temperature records as well, as close to 4 or 5 temperature records were set in 1994. As another note, automated observations began at airports in 1992. It has been postulated by many that because of the placement of these sensors, there is an automatic warm bias at a lot of "official" reporting stations now. Whether that is skewing the records, I'm not sure, but my gut tells me it is.

Just some food for thought.

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Comments

Matt Lanza:

00Z NAM plunks Albany with snow....stretches further north and west than previous runs. If the GFS follows suit, we have a ballgame again.

Posted January 11th at 9:41 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah that's some good news there!Matt I noticed the lake is about 40 degrees.What would 850 temps have to be this time of year to get some significant lake snows?

Posted January 11th at 9:46 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: You would need -10 to generate anything reasonable (maybe -8 with other good parameters). So to get really good LES -15 or lower would be good...of course you'd need a good flow as well.

Posted January 11th at 10:10 PM
ken:

matt,i think we might have a shot again.when will the gfs come out?lets hope for good news!

Posted January 11th at 10:28 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Wow cant wait to see the GFS the other model brought the storm definately further back west from what I see (on the WRF).

Posted January 11th at 10:29 PM
Matt Lanza:

GFS is running now and should be near range by the time we get to Sports Express.

Posted January 11th at 10:40 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

FLOOD WARNING now in effect until further notice for the West Canada Creek below Hinckly Reservoir!!!

Posted January 11th at 10:46 PM
Matt Lanza:

So far out 36 hours, at 500 mb, we are further north and west than 12Z, so maybe we're getting somewhere.

Posted January 11th at 10:47 PM
Matt Lanza:

Michael: Good news at least is that the river gauge forecast has come down significantly since earlier today. So now just minor flooding as opposed to moderate. Still, anyone in that area should keep this in mind.

Posted January 11th at 10:49 PM
Matt Lanza:

It's still not a hit for us, but it's a lot closer than 12Z. This run crushes NYC though. Trends right now....we still have model runs to watch tomorrow.

Posted January 11th at 10:56 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

agreed matt. the storm center has shifted NW, but the models keep the heavy precip wrapped very close to the storm, ibeleive they should spread moderate precip much further west...anyways at least it is looking better. hope for snow!!!ps. did you see the WRF track it was right up the jersy coast that would deffinetly be a slam dunk for cny, the models are not handling the westward extent of precip good.

Posted January 11th at 10:59 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Traditionally, if you look at the 850 mb low and go about 100 mi west of the center of it, that's where the heaviest snow will fall. Taking the GFS verbatum...Long Island, Central Connecticut and Central/E Massachusetts would receive the heaviest snow. So I don't really think the model is too far off in that regard. But again, focus on the trend, as you are. Because it is much further N & W than it was 12 hours ago.

Posted January 11th at 11:05 PM
Will R. (Albany):

I could be wrong, but I don't really see a very deep costal system in the models and I think what we may be seeing more is the interaction between the moisture moving up the coast and the upper air system moving across the lakes, which is why all the moderate to heavy precip (the NAM is overdone) is in Eastern New York and points east, as the upper air system pushes the moisture east, it never gets a chance to go much further west.

Posted January 11th at 11:26 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah that system is definetly playing a roll with this storm.If it does happen to slow down or even weaken,the snow will be heading this way.

Posted January 11th at 11:38 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Check out the GFS about 180 hrs out.That'll give us something to watch!

Posted January 11th at 11:46 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

I really don't think this system is going to be strong enough to force the coastal out to sea. If anything, I would think the great lakes low would pull the coastal low and moisture closer to us, especially if it slows down a little bit. Lows rotate counter clockwise, so that would mean moisture is forced/pulled further inland. If this low does track right along the favored track for us to get hit, the clipper would just enhance the snowfall, right?

Posted January 11th at 11:53 PM
Matt Lanza:

There are multiple "what ifs" right now regarding this storm. First, where does it ultimately track. That will determine who gets the heavy stuff and whether it's rain or snow for I-95. Second, how does the inverted trough extending out from the coastal low impact us here in CNY...can we funnel some of that moisture from the storm into CNY? THe upper level storm wouldn't help us here in CNY. What it does is inhibit the moisture from the nor'easter to extend back inland...and it forces it east toward New England. Does this happen or not? You want a slower, weaker clipper. The 12Z run tomorrow will tell us more, the 00Z will allow us to make a call and the Sunday 12Z will ice it, whatever it is.

Rob: You bet...most of the ensembles this morning had some type of system in that timeframe. One thing about this winter...there's been no shortage of excitement...even if it hasn't been all snow-related.

Posted January 12th at 1:14 AM
Bill Kardas:

Anyone have any cool weather photos they want to share? I'm working all weekend and the weather is quiet. I'd like to put some on the news. Send them to weather@wktv.com Thanks.

Posted January 12th at 7:40 AM
mike(leonardsville):

6Z GFS kills the storm on sunday-monday as well as the one that was 180 hours out.

Posted January 12th at 8:28 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

The latest NAM only gives a 1-3" snow.Mike I find 6Z runs totally useless past 36hrs.

Posted January 12th at 9:40 AM
Andy (Forestport):

It looks like chances of snow all next week so Hopefully we can nickel and dime some accumulation back.

Posted January 12th at 10:35 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

It looks like a 2-3" storm on average per 12z runs.
That flizzard drops quite a bit of snow over a couple days in WNY.Hopefully we won't get stuck inbetween.

Posted January 12th at 12:01 PM
ken:

rob,does that mean we have no shot anymore at a big snowstorm for our area monday.is it to late in the game to shift more west?it is getting very dissappointing missing these storms.

Posted January 12th at 12:31 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Ken we still have a few runs left but I highly doubt we get into the significant snows.Advisory criteria snows are still in reach and that's what I'm hoping for.

Posted January 12th at 1:01 PM
mike m(binghamton):

all we need is a 45 mile shift west for advisory snowfall(4 in) and a 75-100 mile shift west for a warning criteria snowfall(7in), i know this sounds like a lot, but it really isnt in the grand scheme of things.

Posted January 12th at 2:39 PM
ken:

mike,i hope you are right.possible snowstorm for next thursday and friday also.did you notice that?first things first lets hope for a nice shift west with this one.

Posted January 12th at 2:44 PM
mike m(binghamton):

ken, yea i saw that one for thurs/fri it is way too early to even speculate on that one, although it does look to come up the east coast somehwere. id be happy with advisory snow with tomorrow nights storm....something to whiten the ground.

Posted January 12th at 2:52 PM
Andy (Forestport):

One of the sites I go to has us right on edge of 6-10 inches, so it must be a very close call, what time is the next model runs?.

Posted January 12th at 3:52 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

GFS gives us 3-5" on the 18Z run.So we made a little progress from this morning.

Posted January 12th at 5:18 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

I'll take 3-5" inches, gladly! It would be nice to get more, but that amount would definitely whiten everything up and give me some work. It is just so dirty looking outside, that i'd take anything frozen at this point.

Posted January 12th at 5:35 PM
Andy (Forestport):

I agree it is depressing to look out the window, especially since it is only January.

Posted January 12th at 5:49 PM
Jeff (Deerfield):

It is very sad.

What I love is folks that dislike the snow but stay in anyway when we do not have any.

Make sense? :)

Please snow!

Posted January 12th at 7:01 PM
randy Vitullo:

I agree Jeff. I love all types of weather as long as the weather agrees with the season. I am outdoors constantly, spring, summer, autumn and winter. When it doesn't snow in the winter, you have an extended mud season, which is not condusive to anything outdoors (skiing, snowshoeing, snowmobiling and the nature paintbrush thing, white on trees, etc) , except getting dirty. So, the track is trending westward? I hope it moves a bit further west, giving us a 4 to 7 inch shot. Anything would be good. ANDY, DID YOU GET THE EMAIL?

Posted January 12th at 7:35 PM
Andy Forestport:

yes i sent you a second one but you did not reply

Posted January 12th at 7:39 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

in my opinion the models seem to have a fairly good handle on the track of the low, but they do not have a good handle on how far west the precip will extend. i think the 18z gfs is beginning to correct that error. any precip that develops over eastern PA, should strengthen as it heads due north, then eventually it should pivot over us as we should be on the western edge of the deformation zone. lets put it this way areas that were on the western edge of the valentines day storm saw over a foot of snow. now im not calling for those kinds of amounts(unless low center shifts west 100 miles or so) but as rob said 3-5 inches does seem a possibility.

Posted January 12th at 8:37 PM
Bill Kardas:

Randy and Jeff,

I hear ya. Some people complain about snow just to complain about something. I think most people around here don't mind the snow, but come March and April it does get old. It's the same idea when it comes to the summer...people complain about the heat a lot more in August and September.

Posted January 12th at 8:40 PM
Bill Kardas:

I'm hoping we can get at least a couple of inches with this next system moving through. I got a pair of snow shoes for Christmas that I haven't been able to use yet. I got the cabin fever out of me this week too...ran 13 miles in 2 days! It's never too early to start thinking about the Boilermaker!

Posted January 12th at 8:45 PM
Jeff (Deerfield):

If there's no snow, at least we have the NFL Playoffs to distract... and now in HD! :)

BK, any changes in the weather pattern soon?

Posted January 12th at 9:01 PM
Kate:

Haha yeah I kind of want a little snow too.

Bill, are you running the Boilermaker again this year?

Posted January 12th at 9:32 PM
Bill Kardas:

Jeff, yes! The pattern changes to way below normal for next weekend. Looks like temperatures will be teens at best, with some below zero nights. The cold snap doesn't last for very long though...just like the warmup didn't last for very long.

Posted January 12th at 9:43 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Jeff the Green Bay game was great.Visability was about a 1/4 mile at times.They just now issued an advisory for that area.They were only calling for lgt snow with up to an inch accumalation.It was snowing at the rate of 1-2" an hour for several hours and still is!

Posted January 12th at 9:50 PM
Jules (Ilion):

Concerning the snow lovers...I respect their love for snow and I know that many people enjoy it...but there are many people that do not like it or the bitter cold ect.and they also should be entitled to their preferences ps... the wktv weather team are great and I enjoy the blog very much...

Posted January 12th at 9:55 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

ooz NAM has shifted west. will be interested to see the gfs soon.if it is further west than the 18z then we are in bussiness.

Posted January 12th at 10:08 PM
Jeff (Deerfield):

I agree with you Jules :) I would just prefer to have January look/feel like winter. The more I see the grass the more I realize how much I hate to mow it, lol.
I'd love to see Jacksonville win here!

Posted January 12th at 10:09 PM
Randy Vitullo:

Bill, I broke down today and ran 7 miles (in lieu of xc skiing), but I would rather ski this time of year for a workout. Jules; not many people like the bitter cold; including me. I still want winter when its winter......In any event, we have no control of what we are going to get, be it rain, snow, heat or bitter cold. We all have to take what we get it and deal with in our own way. Have a good evening to all.

Posted January 12th at 10:12 PM
ken:

mike,how much west did it shift and if that holds true what can we expect?

Posted January 12th at 10:13 PM
Jules (Ilion):

Randy....Right..Ill take mild temps all winter and deal with it just fine....think spring

Posted January 13th at 7:37 AM
Brad (Oneonta):

Snow advisory here now just over the border into Delaware County. Calling for 4-7 inches by Monday afternoon. Calling for 6-12" about 1/2 hour east of here. Hope it shifts more west. C'mon baby!

Posted January 13th at 7:46 AM
Bill Kardas:

Snowfall map if anyone else is interested. A couple of inches for most of us.

Posted January 13th at 8:07 AM
Bill Kardas:

Randy,

Well said. If we do the best with what mother nature dishes us, we probably would respect and enjoy every kind of weather.

Posted January 13th at 8:09 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

I am not seeing the shift west. If anything it looks solid or even moved back out to sea some. It appears to me that this is going to be a I95 snowstorm, with us getting snow from the clipper. But its ok, I am sure we will have our share of snow in the next 3 months.

Posted January 13th at 8:10 AM
Bill Kardas:

And if anyone is wondering, I leaned about as high as I realistically could with the new data this morning. The trend has been snowier, so no reason to be conservative at this point.

Posted January 13th at 8:11 AM
Bill Kardas:

Jeff,

You are right. The storm track itself hasn't changed a great deal. The interaction between the upper level low is what will give us some snow...and it hard to get a whallop of a snowstorm just based on that.

Posted January 13th at 8:18 AM
Stacy (Stratford ):

Anyone have a round about idea what time the snow should start falling? My husband commutes to schenectady every morning, and I heard it would be worse travel wise there than here..

Posted January 13th at 12:17 PM
melissa:

I was just wondering if Jill is still with WKTV?

Posted January 13th at 4:36 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Stacy, I would say after about midnight. If he is traveling towards the Albany area he will have worse travel conditions than here in our area. Of course remember that it only takes a very small amount of snow to create trecherous travel. The worst part is that it is going to be snowing pretty steady during the morning commute, which with the traffic will make it a more difficult and a longer commute. Tell him to allow for plenty of extra time Monday, and also for the Friday morning commute as another potentially more widespread snowstorm could affect the entire area.

Posted January 13th at 4:37 PM
Bill Kardas:

Folks,

I'm looking at the 12z data and I smell something I don't like at all. There are subtle hints that neither the parent or coastal storm will impact Central New York. The high resolution models (NAM & WRF) are picking up on this idea. This is scarry. The grids paint 0.10-0.20" of QPF. 1-2" tops.

Posted January 13th at 5:09 PM
Bill Kardas:

Stacy,

Your husband's commute should be fine. Snow will be light, and I'm sure he knows, they take great care of the Thruway.

Posted January 13th at 5:11 PM
Bill Kardas:

With the coastal storm tracking a bit farther east, even the Capital District should miss the heavy snow.

Posted January 13th at 5:12 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

I noticed earlier that the clipper storm seemed to have stalled almost over the Great Lakes. Thought at first that maybe that would help pull the storm or moisture in but now like you said it looks like we are definately going to be in between the rock and a hard place when it comes to precip.

Posted January 13th at 5:22 PM
Matt Lanza:

Hi all...and even to further what Bill's been saying, I'm beginning to wonder if there are going to be some unhappy snow lovers in the I-95 corridor tomorrow morning too. This storm does not look impressive at all right now.

Posted January 13th at 7:00 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I can't see that warning in NYC lasting much longer.Temps around NYC are in the lower 40's.Looks like only an inch or two down there to me.

Posted January 13th at 8:15 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Looks like that area of precip near NYC is moving NNE and areas east of a Sullivan, Otsego, Herkimer County line stand the best shot at anything steady. It's going to be a VERY close call for those of you in extreme eastern Oneida County (Utica), as there is a very sharp cutoff in precip the further west you are.

Posted January 13th at 8:39 PM
ken:

this storm is a bust,lets concentrate on thursday and friday storm which as of right now looks like the coastal low is going to hug the coast which means great news for us.of course it is way to early but we do have another chance.we hope.

Posted January 13th at 9:07 PM
patty:

very light snow here in the village of herkimer @10:45pm

Posted January 13th at 10:44 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt,bill; is the inverted trough going to setup over binghamton tomorrow and tomorrow night, some of the latest models would suggest so? if so , how much snow could i get down here? ken, latest 00z gfs would hit us pretty hard thurs/friday. but once again it has a very sharp gradient to the precip, we are right on the western edge of the 8-12 inch snow while albany would get nailed. we still have a long time to go however.

Posted January 13th at 11:17 PM
Matt(HP):

Question? As the Valentine's Day storm from last year is suppose to be a 1 in 100? year storm. What was the ice storm 10 years ago? 1 in 250?

Posted January 13th at 11:17 PM
Ilion:

Moderate snow here in Ilion. Roads & grass are covered once again.

Posted January 13th at 11:54 PM
ken:

mike,know doubt it is way to early but one of these have to finally get us.lets hope its this one.by the way does that look to be a stronger storm?

Posted January 14th at 12:08 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

ken, at this early vantage point id say it does look to be stronger, and have the potential to bring heavy snow to our area(1'+?), however it all depends on the track, to far west and we get sleet, too far east and we get brushed with light snow again.

Posted January 14th at 1:35 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

2" inches here so far. Very light snow still falling. Hopefully the Thursday/Friday storm will be a much better hit for us, but again the models will probably flip flop all over the place as they have with most storms this winter. I would like a solid blockbuster storm (a few feet) here before this winter is out.

Posted January 14th at 2:24 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Just looked at BGM's long term discussion. I know we aren't suppose to do this, but I think it is important/exciting enough to mention. Here is the disc.
"THE SECOND IS A POTENTIAL ELONGATED LAKE EVENT. PROGGED WINDS INDICATE A 270 FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A BAND INTO ONEIDA COUNTY AND PERIPHERAL ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN NY STATE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO FORECAST ACCUMS, BUT IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT IF THIS PATTERN VERIFIES WE WILL REBUILD THE SNOWPACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY."

Posted January 14th at 2:36 AM
Kurt (Miami, FL):

How much accum is in Cooperstown so far? About how much is expected for there from this current storm? (I know this storm is a bit of a bust, but I am still hopeful for something measurable.)

Also, about how much should Cooperstown get from the one this weekend??

Thanx...

Posted January 14th at 3:11 AM
Kurt (Miami, FL):

PS...I'm gonna be there in about 36 hrs. and I'm hoping for good wintry things to happen.

Posted January 14th at 3:14 AM
Patty:

2" of snow in the village of Herkimer.

Posted January 14th at 5:58 AM
lisa:

What happend to this this mornings snow event wasnt going to muchn of an event.. We have snow this morning in oriskany and it continues on snowing.. Is traveling going to be an issue after work?.. Hopefully 49 is in good shape.

Posted January 14th at 6:58 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Picked up 2" here during the overninght.Kurt Richfield Springs had about 2" so probably not much more than that.NYC only came in with a trace.

Posted January 14th at 9:16 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Solid 2" here in Sherburne. Still light snow falling right now.

Off Topic- Well after much debate on what I need an what I can afford I ended up going with the OS WMR968 weather station and after the software and mounting equipment I still kept it under $400 so I am really happy with the deal I got. I will hopefully be able to get it up before the storm and will probably register it under weather underground site.

Posted January 14th at 9:25 AM
Kurt (Miami, FL):

Rob...thanx. How much do u think the Cooperstown area will have over the next 36 hrs?
And what's your feeling about the Thurs/Fri one?

Posted January 14th at 9:45 AM
Gordon (Northwestern):

As of 9 AM. I have picked up 3.4" of new snow, and still snowing very lightly. Current temperature is 30.4 F. Total snow pack is now a whopping 7.8" for the middle of January, LOL!

Posted January 14th at 9:50 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Maybe another inch or two before you get here.Late week storm looks good so far.It would be a significant storm if it stays on track.

Posted January 14th at 9:51 AM
kurt (Miami, FL):

Cool...thanx for the info.
I'll take whatever I can get...but I'm looking forward to a good shot, hopefully.

Posted January 14th at 9:58 AM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Jeff or anyone else that could help: also off topic but I too obtained a weather station (actually a gift). It's a RainWise wireless station with computer interface. Was wondering what the specs are for installing it properly to get the most accurate info? It also has a solar panel.

Posted January 14th at 10:37 AM
Matt Lanza:

Hi all....just to answer a question from above, yes, Jill is still with us.

Watching the 12Z GFS comes in now, so we'll see what it says about the late week event. I have multiple reservations about a "big" LES event for the weekend....in that, I don't think it will happen in CNY to be honest. At this point, to me at least, it looks like a Finger Lakes event. Now, that said, you can't forecast LES this far out with much accuracy, so, we'll leave it at that. I am, however, growing interested in what happens if and when we get a polar vortex down closer to the lakes, say, next week. That could make life very interesting.

Posted January 14th at 10:50 AM
Mel (Westernville):

I know it takes a 285 flow for me to get the big LES events. Sunny and 65 in Monterey, CA today.

Posted January 14th at 11:02 AM
kurt (Miami, FL):

70, sunny, and fairly miserable here right now.

Posted January 14th at 11:10 AM
Bob ( Cooperstown Village):

Hi Kurt, 33 degrees light snow falling We recieved about 1.5" to 2" to date Enough to cover the ground.

Posted January 14th at 12:38 PM
Kurt (Miami, FL):

Hello Bob...Thanx for the info. That sounds like a fairly good start. Hopefully, we can get that doubled (or more) by the end of the week! (I'm looking forward to it!)

Posted January 14th at 1:12 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

31 degrees with light snow still falling. We picked up about 3" inches of snow so far.

Posted January 14th at 1:23 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

So far I only found a few 6" reports in Massachusets but there is widespread tree damage across the state.Must of been a real heavy wet snow.

Posted January 14th at 1:45 PM
Andy Forestport:

What did 11am models show for thursday?

Posted January 14th at 1:49 PM
Brad (Oneonta):

We received hardly anything from this system and we were under a 4-7" advisory....Lucky to get 1". Only stuck to the grass and not to the roads. Ground is nowhere near frozen and it is gobbling up this piddly snow as it falls from the sky. Temps are above freezing all day long here. Bring on the next one....

Posted January 14th at 3:58 PM
Matt Lanza:

Brad: Otsego was never under an advisory, unless you're right across the border in Delaware County, which was under an advisory.

As for the Thursday night/Friday storm, it looks interesting, but it does not look big. I'm not expecting a foot out of this, but I do expect widespread accumulating snow that will be enough to make the snow lovers happy. As for the LES, upon further review, we could be in the ballgame Saturday and Sunday. Whether or not we are, we'll see, but the 12Z GFS was good looking.

Posted January 14th at 4:33 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Temps don't look that cold with the storm.I hope it's not a sloppy snow like today.Lgt snow all day here but it didn't add up to much.Received 2.5" since lastnight.

Posted January 14th at 4:44 PM
Andy Forestport:

Matt

does it still look like a 270-280 flow?

Posted January 14th at 4:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

Andy: Looks to me like a 250ish flow on Friday night/Saturday morning, before the shortwave kicks in the Arctic air and we go 270-280-295 or so. Could stick there through Sunday morning or afternoon.

Posted January 14th at 4:49 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Matt, above you mentioned something about a polar vortex. Is that what we had in place during last February's big lake effect event? Just curious. At least the extended portion of the forecast looks more winter like. Hopefully we can put this cold air to use and get some good snows at some point between now and next week.

Posted January 14th at 4:49 PM
ken:

matt,i thought this thursday and friday storm was going to be bigger than this one.what is the reason for not as big as maybe expected?can it get bigger through time?

Posted January 14th at 4:57 PM
Matt Lanza:

Ken: It will be bigger than this one for us I think. The total liquid precip forecasted right now is around 0.60". You will only get 4-8" or so from that, especially given that temps look marginal (upper 20s/low 30s). It's just not a major storm...just your typical, garden variety winter storm it appears. Still, we'll be getting a fair amount of snow I think.

Michael: Yes, it was. But, it was near/over us and it sat over us for over a week. The pattern this time around appears more progressive. There isn't much Atlantic blocking to lock it in. So while it could move through and glance us, I don't think it locks in, quite like we saw last year. Lots of ups and downs this year, and there's no reason why this wouldn't continue.

Posted January 14th at 5:12 PM
randy Vitullo:

We had three inches in Holland Patent this morning at 7 AM. Despite the fact that it snowed of and off all day, the snow total dropped to 2.5 inches upon remeasurement at 4 PM. The ground is still very warm and the temperatures (air) were marginal.

Posted January 14th at 5:34 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Thanks Matt. I'd take 4-8" inches without a complaint. Heck even if it were only 2-4" inches I think we would all take it gladly over the rain. Lets hope for more though!

Posted January 14th at 5:37 PM
Tony CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

Laura, check this site for some god siting tips: http://www.carterlake.org/stationsetup.php Mett, whats the codegain for inserting a link plase?

Posted January 14th at 7:31 PM
Tony CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

yeah I should look before I send. I did pass 3rd grade LOL

Posted January 14th at 7:32 PM
Brad (Oneonta):

Matt, That is exactly where I am at. It is easier to say Oneonta so you have the general vicinity. Glad to keep you on your toes :)

Posted January 14th at 7:47 PM
Matt Lanza:

Tony: It's ok. Wrap whatever you want to link in quotes, followed by a colon and then the link. So if you want to link "Good Siting Tips" : http://www.carterlake.org/stationsetup.php (no spaces, all one phrase. And for convenience:

Good Siting Tips

Posted January 14th at 7:57 PM
Matt Lanza:

New entry is up for you!

Posted January 14th at 8:53 PM

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