Weather Blog | Local weather station biases (part one)...

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As a forecaster for this area since '06, I have a good feel for how temperatures typically behave across the area, but I wanted to find a way to quantify this information. The purpose of this project is to compare the average high and low temperatures of local weather stations to Rome, NY.

Methodology

Weather data from 23 weather stations was collected during the period of July 5th through July 8th (the heat wave). This time period was used due to the persisent, dry, uniform weather conditions across all of Central New York. Sky conditions were 90-100% clear through this time period, with no rainfall in any of the locations studied. The average of the high and low temperatures of each station was compared to Rome.

Results:

Average temperatures (high + low divided by 2) vs Rome during the heat wave:

	Avg
Albany	4.5
Downtown Syr	4.0
Syracuse	2.5
Milford	2.0
North Utica	1.6
Cooperstown	1.3
Oneonta	0.7
Binghamton	0.5
Rome	0
Westmoreland	-0.5
Lakeport	-0.8
Roseboom	-1.0
Hurricane	-1.3
Hamilton	-1.5
Sherburne	-1.6
Holland Patent	-1.7
Fairfield	-2.3
Inlet	-2.7
Saranac Lake	-2.8
Schenevus	-3.7
Cold Brook	-4.2
West Leyden	-5.2
Old Forge	-5.5

High temperatures vs Rome

	High
Oneonta	4.7
Albany	3.7
Cooperstown	3.7
Downtown Syr	3.3
Milford	3
Syracuse	2.3
Westmoreland	2
North Utica	1.7
Hurricane	0.5
Sherburne	0.5
Holland Patent	0.3
Rome	0
Hamilton	-0.3
Binghamton	-1
Saranac Lake	-1.3
Inlet	-2
Lakeport	-2.7
Fairfield	-3.5
Roseboom	-3.7
Schenevus	-3.7
Cold Brook	-4.7
Old Forge	-4.7
West Leyden	-5.3

Low Temperatures vs Rome

	Low
Albany	5.3
Downtown Syr	4.7
Syracuse	2.7
Binghamton	2
Roseboom	1.7
North Utica	1.5
Lakeport	1
Milford	1
Rome	0
Fairfield	-1
Cooperstown	-1
Hamilton	-2.7
Hurricane	-3
Westmoreland	-3
Oneonta	-3.3
Inlet	-3.3
Cold Brook	-3.7
Sherburne	-3.7
Holland Patent	-3.7
Schenevus	-3.7
Saranac Lake	-4.3
West Leyden	-5
Old Forge	-6.3

Results:

The average temperature of most (14 of our 22) local weather stations run colder than Rome. The biggest cold bias occurs at night, with 11 stations running an average 3 degrees or more colder than Rome. Many area weather stations run warmer during the day, with an even split (11 warmer, 11 cooler) of high temperatures vs Rome.

Conclusion:

In the next blog about this topic, I'll explain how climate factors such as elevation, aspect, bodies of water, and surface type explain the different tendencies in temperature. Look for that early next week.

If you want to see how your weather station ranks on this list, send me the high and low temperatures from July 5th-8th along with your elevation.

Tags: climate, local weather, central new york

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Comments

fairfield:

.29” from last evenings rain, just wish it had lasted longer, felt wonderful. Very interesting information

Posted July 15th at 9:39 AM
fairfield:

still cloudy up here with no complaints, maybe that will hold some of the heat at bay

Posted July 15th at 11:11 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

I’ve noticed my daytime highs are pretty similiar to Rome’s. Maybe a degree or so off. But my nighttime lows are always 2-3+ degrees cooler at night…especially during the wintertime. Yeah these low level clouds are hard to bust up today. Usually we have no problem getting rid of these clouds in mid July.

Posted July 15th at 11:26 AM
Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

Nice job on that Bill.

Could a little bit of “Heat Island” effect the nighttime temps at Griffiss with all the paved area around there?

From looking at the GPS coordinates of the ASOS on Weatherunderground, is it really near the runways?

Posted July 15th at 12:46 PM
CJ:

About what time does the rain look to arrive tomorrow?

Posted July 15th at 1:29 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Tony that makes sense. I bet you that has something to do with it. That front tomorrow really doesn’t clear things out. Models are showing plenty of instability for storms on Saturday now too.

Posted July 15th at 1:34 PM
fairfield:

CJ, just peaked at national weather service and they are calling for storms to start after noon…..obviously not set in stone yet…....better to keep check back

Posted July 15th at 3:00 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Great job Bill!

Looks like the hot air will be sticking around for a while, looking at the upper air flows for the next couple of weeks, the pattern looks hot and basically dry; I think everyone should see some rain tomorrow afternoon. However amounts will vary greatly. because the threat exist for a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop around the mid afternoon timeframe. the MLCAPE values look very decent around 1500 J/kg. We would see a large severe outbreak If we had a little less shear overhead. There will be some short waves coming through in the 2nd half of next week, hopefully the area gets some rain during that timeframe as well. Because, we could be in another heat wave in a few weeks.

Posted July 15th at 4:00 PM
Anthony (Oriskany):

Rob/Tony,
As far a lows, I think a factor is the cool drainage we get from the east late at night and early morning. It does not make it as far as Rome.

Posted July 15th at 6:13 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Yeah that’s definitely a factor in the winter time…I’m not sure on how much of an effect that has during the summer. Especially with a stale varible wind. Speaking of winter, these Great lakes are already approaching the mid 70’s. If we can hold on to this pattern for another month or so…the LES machine will be cranking this December!!

Posted July 15th at 7:52 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

An active day in Michigan this afternoon. Lots of reportsof wind damage. Looks like they were basically instability driven. Maybe we can get something going tomorrow.

Posted July 15th at 7:58 PM
MG(Point Rock):

Here are my numbers, Bill:
July 5 max 90 min 53
July 6 max 92 min 64
July 7 max 92 min 61
July 8 max 93 min 64
My elevation is 1100 feet.

Posted July 15th at 9:16 PM
Michelle (prospect ):

Goin to be camping with my little boys up near inlet tomorrow thru sunday. what do these storms look like for tomorrow ???

thanks so much

Posted July 15th at 10:53 PM

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