Light snows and light icing...

Posted February 18th, 2010 by Bill Kardas. 67 comments

The weather pattern over the next few days will be dominated by a storm in Eastern Canada.  The storm will draw winds into the northwest across Central New York, along with bringing plenty of moisture to the area.  The combination of the stagnant airmass along with an inversion may give us some sleet and freezing drizzle today, tonight, and tomorrow.  This happened earlier in the winter, and I wanted to bring back that article as to why this weather event is happening.  From January 7th:

Freezing drizzle is a lighter form of freezing rain, when tiny water droplets falling from the sky freeze on the surface.  This creates a layer of ice on the ground, cars, trees, anything it can stick to.  Freezing drizzle is different from sleet, which freezes before it hits the ground, creating little balls of ice that "ping" as the hit the ground.

Under "typical" conditions, freezing rain occurs when a layer of warm air is sandwiched between cold air on the ground, and cold air aloft.  Snowflakes falling through the atmosphere melt into raindrops as they move through the warm layer.  The rain then falls to the ground, where temperatures are below freezing, causing the rain to freeze on the ground.

There was no "warm layer" in place last night, as seen in the Buffalo sounding.  Instead, a low layer of cold, moist air is found trapped under a shallow temperature inversion at 900mb (about 3000 feet).  The temperature and dewpoint in this layer are nearly identical, meaning the layer was saturated, or unable to hold any more water.

Cold air can't hold as much water in it as warm air (hence why winters are dry and summers can be humid).  If you cool air that is saturated (can't hold any more water), the excess water has to condense out of the air.  This process produces clouds, and if it happens near or at the surface, it produces fog (which is a cloud at the surface.

Here's where physics kick:  when water droplets condense out of the air, they have to "stick" to something in order to overcome something called the curvature effect.  The best way I think of explaining this is to think of water as being more of a "sticky" substance.  When you touch the side of a glass, you'll notice that the water will stick to your hand as you slowly try to pull it away.  Water molecules are bonded tightly, allowing this to happen.  When condensing water vapor finds something to stick to, such as a dust particle, it turns instantly into liquid water.  The particles in the atmosphere that are needed to be present in order to produce clouds are called cloud condensation nuclei.

When liquid water tries to freeze, it has to overcome the curvature effect.  If it can't it won't freeze.  This is why it's possible to observe water below the freezing point.  This is called supercooled water.  Here's a neat video I found on YouTube that I show to my students:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSPzMva9_CE.  Again, the reason why we're seeing the "instant freeze" is that the water found something to stick to, and the effect was pretty rapid.

Last night and this morning, we observed supercooled water droplets falling out of the moist layer of atmosphere that was in the process of cooling down.  We didn't have the necessary cloud condensation nuclei in the atmosphere for these particles to stick to in order to create fog (the air was too clean...imagine that).  Instead, these droplets were big enough to be seen, and feel as freezing drizzle.  The minute these particles hit the ground, they froze instantly, as the surface was enough to break the curvature effect of those tiny particles.  A pretty neat, rare event here in Central New York.
 

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  1. Andy Forestport:

    How is the storm threat looking for early next week? any chance we break the trend?

    Posted February 18th at 9:10 AM

  2. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Andy,

    Still looks to stay generally south. Can’t rule out some light snow yet again, but the heavy stuff stays south of CNY. Still plenty of time until the event, so that forecast isn’t etched in stone. Unfortunately, we’ve had zero luck getting these storms up the coast. It seems like the question “Can this really happen again?” always seems to be “Yes, it can”.

    Posted February 18th at 11:49 AM

  3. fairfield:

    when was the last time winter went like this. it seems like we have a force field put up around us

    Posted February 18th at 12:14 PM

  4. Mikeherkimer:

    I know we need some snow for the water table, but early tee times are sounding awfully good right now. If we’re noy going to have (real) winter, I say bring on SPRING

    Posted February 18th at 12:27 PM

  5. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Fairfield,

    I don’t remember the last time I’ve seen a weather pattern this persistent. You can make the argument that aside from a few select days here and there, the pattern has been like this since mid December!

    Posted February 18th at 12:34 PM

  6. Nate(little falls):

    season total here is 30.4inches

    Posted February 18th at 1:30 PM

  7. cedarville :

    when is that wind gonna die down

    Posted February 18th at 1:37 PM

  8. SteveH(Tully):

    Any credence to this latest forecast discussion outta Binghamton? The way they are talking sounds like the latest models for the Mon-Tues storm give us snow or rain? What do they mean about Wed “elongated wintry event” That sounds promising!!! All we have is hope…if it hasn’t already been crushed by so many misses this season.

    .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
    THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN IN A MEAN TROF FOR THE NEXT
    SEVERAL DAYS, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FORECAST.

    A SHORT WAVE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE A
    TEMPORARY HEIGHT RISE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE BEGINNING
    OF THE PERIOD. A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
    IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE. THE CYCLONE WILL HEAD INTO THE
    NORTHEASTERN U.S. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS MUCH MODEL
    DISCREPANCY WITH RESPECT TO THE CYCLONE`S RESPONSE. THE LATEST
    EURO RUN SPLITS THE SURFACE CYCLONE WITH ONE AREA SHOOTING OFF TO
    OUR WEST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO, WHILE A SECOND CYCLONE
    DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST.

    THE TWO MAIN SCENARIOS LEAVE IT YET TO BE DETERMINED IF THIS WILL
    BE A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT, OR A SNOW EVENT.

    A SECOND JET WILL DIVE INTO THE MAIN TROF LATE TUESDAY, CAUSING
    FURTHER CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL
    LEAD TO AN ELONGATED WINTRY EVENT, PERHAPS LASTING WELL INTO
    WEDNESDAY.

    Posted February 18th at 3:54 PM

  9. Becky (West Leyden):

    I’m getting a little freezing drizzle.

    Fairfield, I’ve been going through a lot of archives over the last few weeks; some of these records go back as far as 1875. My search has primarily been focused on the Tug Hill. However, I have seen a lot of records for other areas of Central and Northern NY . So far I’ve let to find a year like this one. Different places have seen lean winters, but not the whole region at once.

    Posted February 18th at 4:29 PM

  10. MG(Point Rock):

    I’ve also been having some freezing drizzle this afternoon. Enough to make it a tough job to scrape the car’s windows.
    In reference to the comment from “snow totals” in the last entry, I’d say it is a hallmark of lake-effect snow that there are wide variations in snowfall over short distances. West Leyden is higher in elevation than I am, and they are also better aligned with the long axis of Lake Ontario. So, I’m not at all surprised that Becky has quite a bit more snow than I do.

    Posted February 18th at 5:13 PM

  11. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Precip finally changed to lgt snow here. The ice added up this evening. There’s a solid coating on my car.

    Posted February 18th at 9:43 PM

  12. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    This morning there was another inch in the driveway, I plowed what was there off this afternoon.
    We had quite a mixture of different snow and some freezing drizzle. At one point the snow was so fine. Almost like it wasn’t snow but it wasn’t freezing drizzle.
    The temperature is 27* and my weather station is picking up a +5*-+10* Wind Chill. Gusts of wind here 15 MPH and over.
    I think there should be enough snow in the driveway in the morning for a measurment.

    Posted February 18th at 9:46 PM

  13. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    Thanks Becky for the information on the Dew Point, and telling me my dew point Weather Station reading is ok.

    By the way, do you have any records on the cold week we had at this time in 1979??
    I think today Feb 18th was the last day of the very cold weather.
    I’m glad this past week wasn’t like that one.
    Valentines day Feb 14th was on a Wednesday that week.

    Posted February 18th at 9:57 PM

  14. fairfield:

    thanks for the info Becky, this winter truly stinks all over. has been freezing something since early evening, kept my mother in law from going to her prayermeeting, car covered with ice. temp now 25, winds down to avg teen’s

    Posted February 18th at 10:04 PM

  15. Becky (West Leyden):

    Getting a few snowflakes and the temp is 21

    Art, Yes I do, That was the year that the record coldest temperature is -52° at Stillwater Reservoir (northern Herkimer County) on February 9, 1934, was tied in Old Forge on February 18, 1979. during that week over 30 communities recorded temperatures of -40° or colder, most of them occurring in the northern one-half of the state and the remainder in the Western Plateau Division and in localities just south of the Mohawk Valley. Syracuse also recorded its coldest temp of -26F on February 18, 1979.

    Fairfield, you’re right about the winter.

    Posted February 18th at 11:16 PM

  16. fairfield:

    maybe i jinxed the state by buying a snowmobile 15 yrs ago, really seems like we aren’t getting the consistant snow anymore like when i was a kid, i told my daughter how we used to have to climb small snow banks to go trick/treating, she was shocked

    Posted February 18th at 11:27 PM

  17. fairfield:

    just visited the first blog entry from “06” postings were made about the same time that year, very earie…....sounds like about the same pattern 4 years later

    Posted February 19th at 12:04 AM

  18. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    0.9” overnight. Freezing Drizzle currently

    Posted February 19th at 7:43 AM

  19. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    Another big inch of snow in the driveway this morning (Friday). The snow seems to be about the same quality as the snow was in the Blizzard of “66”

    The temp is__29*__ and the wind blew all night last night and is still blowing.
    I notice the barometric pressure is rising.

    Posted February 19th at 9:06 AM

  20. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    Thank you Becky,
    For looking up the cold temps for Valentines Daw week in 1979.
    The temps here were -26* one morning and 32 the next. The temp never got up above 0* until the 16th( which was on Friday) The temp went up to +15* that morning and did it ever feel warm. :)

    I was schocked when the temp went to
    -32* again on Saturday morning. THANKS AGAIN

    Posted February 19th at 9:12 AM

  21. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    I don’t know how that line got through my last 3 lines above. I didn’t do that intentionaly.

    Posted February 19th at 9:15 AM

  22. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Picked up 0.4” lastnight.

    Posted February 19th at 11:51 AM

  23. Becky (West Leyden):

    Picked up half an inch yesterday. Right now I’m getting light flurries. The winds are WNW at 15-25 mph with higher gust.

    Posted February 19th at 1:00 PM

  24. Scott (HP):

    I have to laugh at us weather bloggers (me included) All “winter” everytime a storm was 7-10 days out it got all hyped up on here because we’re all hoping that we were going to get blasted with snow. From everything I’m reading (and I’m no expert) it looks like this Monday-Wednesday event has real potential to hit us. AND NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT IT ON HERE. No matter what, I say it will miss us south and go out to sea…but what do you pros think about this one?

    Posted February 19th at 3:27 PM

  25. fairfield:

    i’m not holding my breath either for any more storms, very depressing winter

    Posted February 19th at 3:48 PM

  26. tommy lf:

    Hey scott thats the key if nobody on here talks about “it” then it Will hit us

    Posted February 19th at 3:50 PM

  27. Becky (West Leyden):

    The Monday storm will pass us to the south. Monday’s storm won’t be a blockbuster due to the lack of a lot of cold air. yet. However, it will set the stage for the storm later in the week. depending on its track the first storm could pull down air that is a little colder than what is over us now. How far north will the second storm get? It’s too early to tell. However, with the block is still in place, so I think we all know the answer.

    Posted February 19th at 5:36 PM

  28. Matt:

    Scott,

    Thanks for jinxing us. We’ll blame you if it goes south :)

    Posted February 19th at 5:50 PM

  29. Rob (Whitesboro):

    There’s certainly alot on the map next week. The ingredients are definitely there for something big in the east. This happened on the models early February of last year with all types of energy coming together. Lets hope we get a different result this time.

    Posted February 19th at 9:21 PM

  30. Scott (HP):

    @Matt. I’ve been here all winter. I’ve pretty much posted one liners that say… “OUT TO SEA”. Trust me, I want a blast of snow like the rest of us. I don’t live here all year long because I expect no snow. The last REAL snow ….I mean real snow I can remember is the Valentine Storm a few years ago. I’m thinking about moving south to enjoy warmer weather all year long.

    Posted February 19th at 9:40 PM

  31. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    Some snow here this evening.. spotty in area’s where it’s all snow or a little frz. drizzle and snow mix. had a coating of ice on the car this morning. Coming from rome to here it was like a switch was turned on when i got to stittville the snow picked up alot. Roads around here were snow covered. Will measure up in the morning. 55 inches for the season…

    Posted February 19th at 9:44 PM

  32. Adam Musyt:

    Our temperature as of 10 PM has warmed to 33 degrees at Griffiss in Rome. This is the warmest temperature so far for the month of February – and the highest reading since January 26th.

    Posted February 19th at 10:10 PM

  33. randy Vitullo :

    The 0z of the GFS really nails us with 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitation for the 23rd and 24th. This MUST mean that most of the PRECIP WILL BE RAIN, OR A MIXED BAG OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN CHANGING TO ALL RAIN, little or no snow accumulation….

    Posted February 20th at 6:47 AM

  34. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Tuesday’s forecast looks to be tricky, especially with CNY flirting with the 0 degree line. I think we will see some rain/sleet/freezing rain change over to snow by Tuesday night. We are keeping a close eye on next week, it looks to be a busy one.

    Posted February 20th at 9:52 AM

  35. fairfield:

    anyone have more info on the weather contest. do the pics or vids have to be recent or can they be older, not much “wild” weather around lately

    Posted February 20th at 12:15 PM

  36. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Very interesting models out there right now, but then again we are 3 days away!!!

    What is the possibility of the storm just stalling in New England?

    Posted February 20th at 7:09 PM

  37. Jill Reale:

    Jeff: Not good. Storm #1 (Monday night-Tuesday) is going to move along the southern jet stream (thanks to El Nino) so we will see milder air during that storm. Meaning, snow mixing in with rain then back to snow. As of right now, it doesnt look like a blockbuster storm. As for stalling, it doesnt look likely since we will potentially see Storm # arrive Thurs-Fri. This storm has caught my eye (even though it is 6 days out) because there is potential to tap into the northern jetstream, bringing in the better chance for snow.

    Posted February 20th at 8:20 PM

  38. MG(Point Rock):

    Wih all the small snow accumulations, my snow depth has gradually built up to 15”. I thought that was pretty good, until I checked my records for one year ago today — the snow depth was 49”

    Posted February 20th at 10:18 PM

  39. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Last year at this time we had a big LES storm. I got 20-30” marked down for N. Oneida. My seasonal total was 97” at this point last year as well.

    Posted February 20th at 10:26 PM

  40. Anthony (N.Marcy):

    Rob,

    I see the LES event from last year on my records as well. I noticed in a two day event last year for 19-20 Feb 09 I picked up 12”. Snowfall this year at this time is a little more than half of what I have in my records for this same total seasonal last year on this date. Maybe with the minimal snow last March/April last year we can do some “catching up” at the end of this month and March this year. The law of averages will eventually win out.

    Posted February 20th at 10:36 PM

  41. randy Vitullo :

    The GFS 0z and 6z show the blue line staying south of CNY. Will it be a lack of surface cold air that causes mixed precip for Monday through Tuesday night? Elevation snow event?

    Posted February 21st at 7:08 AM

  42. randy Vitullo :

    The NAM shows the 0 line a lot further south, with a lot less precipitation for us for the same time frame; Monday through Wednesday morning at 6.

    Posted February 21st at 7:13 AM

  43. Jill Reale (Utica):

    While the 0 line is just to the south, we need to keep an eye on warming air at the surface on Tuesday, which will cause frozen precipitation to melt as it falls.

    Posted February 21st at 9:09 AM

  44. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Randy you can check surface temps by using the 10 meter charts on both the NAM/GFS. Pretty soon we’ll be using the +3 line for the rain/snow line…especially as we get closer to March.

    Posted February 21st at 9:18 AM

  45. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Actually they’re called the 2 meter charts….not 10.

    Posted February 21st at 9:23 AM

  46. Mel (Westernville):

    Out of curiosity I looked at last year and had a snow depth of 36”, and picked up over 20” in a 3 day period a year ago today. Was in Dallas this past week and it was neat to see all their snowbanks in 50 degree weather.

    Posted February 21st at 11:33 AM

  47. snowball78:

    Hope we get hit this week we are due. does any one know a good site to get model forcast? thanks

    Posted February 21st at 11:50 AM

  48. Becky (West Leyden):

    Seasonal snowfall stands at 118.825, last year on this date total was 249.375. I picked up 21.25 inches of snow last year on Feb 20th

    Snowball78, this is a good place to start.

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

    Posted February 21st at 12:23 PM

  49. Justin (Whitesboro):

    The 12z CMC model shows a real good storm! I hope it is right we are due!!

    Posted February 21st at 12:50 PM

  50. Rob (Whitesboro):

    The one thing we got going for us is that regardless of the track…we still get snow thanks to the trough. It’s good to see the NAM & SREFS on board with that idea now too. I just wish we had more cold air to tap into…it would make things ALOT more interesting.

    Posted February 21st at 1:25 PM

  51. Dave (Lairdsville):

    Rob, Beckey, Randy, Mel, WKTV, Anyone,

    If you had to take an educated guess, How much snow do you think the MV & Thruway corridor will get from Mon – Wed? Also any chance of LES on the backside for Wed night into Sat?

    Posted February 21st at 1:39 PM

  52. Anthony (N.Marcy):

    Dave,

    too early to pinpoint accums yet…but looking good right now (this can change). Also there is the potential for another storm Friday into Saturday.

    Posted February 21st at 2:26 PM

  53. Sandy:

    Does anyone know why there are so many helicopters flying around in the Deerfield area?

    Posted February 21st at 2:42 PM

  54. Dave (Lairdsville):

    Thanks Anthony,

    Posted February 21st at 2:48 PM

  55. Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

    Latest thoughts from the NWS in BGM

    THE UPCOMING WEEK APPEARS TO BE VERY UNSETTLED WITH A POTENTIAL
    FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION
    BY WEEKS END.

    LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY
    MONDAY EVENING. UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
    POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SLEET TO
    MIX WITH THE SNOW BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
    THE 30S ON TUESDAY WITH PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUING. EVEN SOME
    RAIN MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW IN OUR DEEPEST VALLEY LOCATIONS...WHICH
    WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

    A SECOND STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE
    NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF
    MAINLY SNOW INTO THE REGION...WITH POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
    AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN CONCENTRATION FOR ANY HEAVY SNOW LOOKS TO
    BE EAST OF I-81…BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
    COULD CHANGE THE AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA.

    A THIRD SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH COULD
    BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE REGION...AGAIN
    MOST LIKELY TO THE EAST OF I-81…ALTHOUGH ANY SHIFT IN TRACK TO
    THE WEST WOULD SPREAD HEAVIER SNOWS BACK INTO WEST CENTRAL NEW
    YORK AND NORTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.

    Posted February 21st at 2:56 PM

  56. Becky (West Leyden):

    Dave, Like Jill said this is a very tricky forecast. (The 0 line is just too our south) The QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) is showing CNY and parts of Northern NY with moderate precipitation around one half of an inch for day 1 and 2. QPF is the expected amount of melted precipitation accumulated over a specified time period over a specified area. like Rob said, the lack of real cold air will hamper snow totals. to put it into perspective, the Mid Atlantic just south of NYC is showing more than twice the amount of QP. However they will see a lot more in the way of rain. (which will cause flooding concerns down there) I would be more excited if this were December. This won’t be a blockbuster event. However, it’s the best we’ve seen in two months.

    Posted February 21st at 3:53 PM

  57. Justin (Whitesboro):

    The first storm will not be the best in the way for snow, but as the cold air is rushing in the second one could become a good snow event!

    Posted February 21st at 4:14 PM

  58. Dave(Lairdsville):

    Thank You Becky… Very helpfull.

    As this storm exit off to the east on Wednesday, wouldn’t it pull much colder air down from Canada and give us some LES for Thurs- Fri?

    Posted February 21st at 4:15 PM

  59. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Check out the HPC’s day three probabilities for snow. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

    Posted February 21st at 4:30 PM

  60. Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

    Yea HPC favors the ECM/UK

    Posted February 21st at 5:21 PM

  61. Becky (West Leyden):

    Dave, The models continue to have problems with both storms. The track and timing will determine what we get. The basic set-up is this, after the first storm moves into New England and weakens, a strong low will then move across the Great Lakes into Ohio and NE PA, this storm will turn into a strong storm Thursday night, after the storm forms it will become cut off from the main flow. This is important because it will allow for the system to hang around this will allow for unsettled conditions through the weekend. The second storm looks to be much better than the first. As stated above, this all comes down the track and timing. As for LES there will be some, it’s too early to say how much. The air in Canada is colder than what’s over us at this time. However, it’s not super cold. Also, The sun angle has to be taken into consideration. If this were December this would be a huge event. However, it’s now late February.

    Posted February 21st at 6:29 PM

  62. Anthony (N.Marcy):

    Becky,

    check out feb 26-27 2008 we had a very similar setup …turned out to be a decent event. However I think we will do well and the event for Thursday through Saturday looks even more interesting

    Posted February 21st at 6:39 PM

  63. Dave (Lairdsville):

    Thanks Again Becky…

    Friday I was pretty much figuring on an early Spring and driving range would be open soon, so I went and bought a new set of drvers. Now! we are going to get some decent now…I wonder what would happen if I bought a new set of wedges too? LMAO!

    Posted February 21st at 6:57 PM

  64. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    I think you’ll be using your new drivers clearing snow from your driveway Dave. We might actually be cashing in on some decent snows. FINALLY!!!!

    Posted February 21st at 7:11 PM

  65. Dave(Lairdsville):

    Tony,

    That’s fine by me!!!!!!! If it means we are going to get a lot more snow then I will stand in the front yard and practice with snowballs instead of golfballs…. Spring can wait! LET IT SNOW!

    Posted February 21st at 7:35 PM

  66. Dave(Lairdsville):

    I should have bought the damn things 2 months ago! Maybe we’d have 4’ of snow on the ground by now! :)

    Posted February 21st at 7:38 PM

  67. Jill Reale (Utica):

    new entry up

    Posted February 21st at 8:23 PM

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