Late summer slump...
Posted August 12th, 2014 by Bill Kardas. 25 comments
After enjoying several days of dry, seasonably warm weather, our weather has turned wet and cool. A slow moving storm system will bring heavy rain and cool temperatures to Central New York today, tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday. Here are the details:
Flash flood watch...
As of 10am Tuesday, the Mohawk Valley is under a flash flood watch. This could be expanded westward, but we'll let the National Weather Service make that call - they are responsible for issuing watches and warnings (and they do a heck of a job). Our primary concern here is not the main bodies of water. The recent dry stretch of weather means even a soaking rain can happen without any major problems. We have to watch the typical flood prone spots for flash flooding.
In general, 1-2" of rain is expected across the area. As with any storm system, higher amounts are possible. According to the NRFC, it will take about 1-2" of rain in an hour or less to cause widespread flash flooding. We think the majority of our rain accumulation will take about 12 hours. Bottom line - the flooding threat looks localized.
Timing of rain
Rain will continue this morning and could temporarily taper off this afternoon. In general, the dynamics that are driving this system ramp up tonight. We think rain will fill in from the west over the next 12 hours and pick up in intensity tonight. The rain comes to an end after the passage of a cold front tomorrow morning. This front brings cooler, drier air to the region later in the day. Wednesday looks cool and breezy, with some sunshine and highs near or above 70.
Thursday and Friday, a pocket of much cooler air drops in from the northwest. This upper level system typically brings widespread diurnal (daytime) showers. Our models don't showcase much activity during the day, but the cool pocket of air usually ends up producing more than the models show. If that's the case, we aren't getting out of the 60s Thursday and Friday.
The good news is that the weather does improve over the weekend. The cool pool of air departs CNY and will be replaced by more seasonable air. Long term patterns even point to a substantial warming period next week. Don't write off summer just yet!
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