Late summer slump...

Posted August 12th, 2014 by Bill Kardas. 21 comments

After enjoying several days of dry, seasonably warm weather, our weather has turned wet and cool.  A slow moving storm system will bring heavy rain and cool temperatures to Central New York today, tomorrow, Thursday, and Friday.  Here are the details:

Flash flood watch...

As of 10am Tuesday, the Mohawk Valley is under a flash flood watch.  This could be expanded westward, but we'll let the National Weather Service make that call - they are responsible for issuing watches and warnings (and they do a heck of a job).  Our primary concern here is not the main bodies of water.  The recent dry stretch of weather means even a soaking rain can happen without any major problems.  We have to watch the typical flood prone spots for flash flooding. 

In general, 1-2" of rain is expected across the area.  As with any storm system, higher amounts are possible.  According to the NRFC, it will take about 1-2" of rain in an hour or less to cause widespread flash flooding.  We think the majority of our rain accumulation will take about 12 hours.  Bottom line - the flooding threat looks localized.

Timing of rain

Rain will continue this morning and could temporarily taper off this afternoon.  In general, the dynamics that are driving this system ramp up tonight.  We think rain will fill in from the west over the next 12 hours and pick up in intensity tonight.  The rain comes to an end after the passage of a cold front tomorrow morning.  This front brings cooler, drier air to the region later in the day.  Wednesday looks cool and breezy, with some sunshine and highs near or above 70.

Outlook

Thursday and Friday, a pocket of much cooler air drops in from the northwest.  This upper level system typically brings widespread diurnal (daytime) showers.  Our models don't showcase much activity during the day, but the cool pocket of air usually ends up producing more than the models show.  If that's the case, we aren't getting out of the 60s Thursday and Friday.

The good news is that the weather does improve over the weekend.  The cool pool of air departs CNY and will be replaced by more seasonable air.  Long term patterns even point to a substantial warming period next week.  Don't write off summer just yet!

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Comments

  1. Bill Kardas:

    Another thing to add – 850mb temperatures drop to +6 on Thursday and Friday – enough to cause lake effect clouds and rain!

    Posted August 12th at 10:58 AM

  2. sue:

    at 11:55
    temperature: 64
    rainfall: .19”

    Posted August 12th at 11:57 AM

  3. Gordon (Northwestern):

    .58” of rain through 1:30 PM. Currently 62°. Had a high of 79° yesterday, which is my high so far for the month of August.

    Posted August 12th at 1:48 PM

  4. sue (fairfield):

    temp of 68 right now…..37” of rain so far and a nasty east south east wind for most of the day….pressure is still dropping slightly as well

    Posted August 12th at 4:34 PM

  5. sue (fairfield):

    winds are still out of the east…...what’s up with that

    Posted August 12th at 10:11 PM

  6. Holly (litchfield):

    Super windy and warm atop Roberts Rd in town of Litchfield, no rain yet.

    Posted August 12th at 10:24 PM

  7. sue (fairfield):

    know what you mean holly…..still holding at 67* here….with a whopping high of 68 for the day…..and only .38” of rain

    Posted August 12th at 10:35 PM

  8. Louis (Barneveld):

    Only .43” of rain for me so far…I guess we’ll see what happens.

    Posted August 13th at 12:04 AM

  9. Denys (East Winfield):

    62 degrees, heavy rain.

    Posted August 13th at 5:21 AM

  10. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    61 degrees, moderate rain, only .35” so far from this storm.

    Posted August 13th at 5:26 AM

  11. Neil (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    68* here with exactly 1.00” since this time yesterday.

    Posted August 13th at 7:36 AM

  12. sue (fairfield):

    only .54” of rain here for this morning….63* and still breezy from the east

    Posted August 13th at 8:03 AM

  13. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Ended up with .71” of rain up to 11 PM yesterday, and .95” overnight, for a total of 1.66” for the storm. I heard parts of Long Island had 10” of rain.

    Posted August 13th at 8:13 AM

  14. Louis (Barneveld):

    .51” of rain from 12:00AM until now gives me what appears to be my storm total of 0.94” of rain.

    Posted August 13th at 8:25 AM

  15. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    We lucked out this time around. The inflow off the Atlantic brought ridiculous amounts of rain to Long Island. The radar returns just north of Islip show over 18” of rain!

    Granted, this is doppler estimated, but the estimates today are running pretty close to the amounts measured.

    Posted August 13th at 8:52 AM

  16. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    We got 1 inch of rain last night including a shower this morning.

    Posted August 13th at 9:39 AM

  17. Neil (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Another .25” here in the past 15 minutes.

    Posted August 13th at 9:41 AM

  18. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    13.2” of rain in Islip since midnight! That’s insane!

    Posted August 13th at 10:17 AM

  19. sue (fairfield):

    quite the little down pour right now…..up to .7”

    Posted August 13th at 11:12 AM

  20. sue (fairfield):

    getting mighty close to an inch already… .83” and climbing fast

    Posted August 13th at 11:31 AM

  21. sue (fairfield):

    .89” of rainfall since midnight…..temp is 65 and winds are finally switched back to coming from the west

    Posted August 13th at 11:48 AM

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