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I just wanted to post a new entry to focus in entirely on lake snows. The lake effect won't affect everyone, but the cold will. See the previous entry from Jill for the overview on what's about to occur.

First off, here's the snowfall map. This runs through 7 PM Sunday.

Light accumulations are possible from the Thruway south, mostly from the widespread snow this afternoon. Most places in the Tr-3" zone will not get to 3". Snow should begin between Noon and 3 PM, as the Arctic front pushes eastward (Map from 8:30 of current conditions shows the front located just west of Buffalo).

Lake snows will develop in earnest this evening. Judging by how solid the lake effect snow is right now, up the St. Lawrence Valley, I think it's safe to say that once the wind spreads out over the length of Lake Ontario, with 850 mb temperatures 8-10 degrees colder, there is going to be some tremendous snow developing. Snow will be heavy tonight, and I think travel will be next to impossible on the Tug Hill. At times, that heavier snow will waver inland a bit, closer to places like Boonville, Old Forge and into Hamilton County. By sunrise tomorrow, I expect 3-6" in those areas, but 6-12" on the Tug Hill.

Snow will continue all day tomorrow. The major question right now is this: Will the lake snows shift to the south Sunday morning or afternoon? The answer is...we don't know. I do think they will shift south a bit. Not as far south as the GFS is suggesting. But south nonetheless. Heavier snow in this situation would be brought closer to places like Rome, Steuben, Lake Delta and perhaps as far east as Poland or Salisbury/Dolgeville. I do not think that the lake snows will make it all the way to the Mohawk Valley on Sunday, but it does remain an outside, slim possibility. We saw this occur during last February's LES blitz. The Tug Hill was pegged to be the bullseye, but in the first few days of the event, it was also northern and central Oneida County that got into the fun. So I'm keeping that possibility open and out there.

Lake snows would likely settle back up north tomorrow night. By 7 PM I think 16-24" are possible on the Tug Hill, with an additional 1-2 feet possible through Monday evening, before the lake snows lift out. Just for the heck of it, here's a look at our in house Microcast model's interpretation through 7 PM tomorrow evening. We'll see how well it performs under pressure. :)

There are a handful of things working against this being a huge event, but I'm fairly certain those will be overcome entirely. I expect some impressive totals by Tuesday morning for the northern half of CNY. Stay tuned!

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Comments

Dom-Tech:

I hope this is not a repeat of last year, Im sorry to all the snow lovers.

Posted January 19th at 8:54 AM
Brian:

Looks like 3-8 is not near enough for Old Forge area.There is going to be a very high snow to water ratio. I'm thinking more in the 10 to 15 inch range.

Posted January 19th at 8:55 AM
Matt Lanza:

Brian: Old Forge very well may end up with more. I'm concerned that the axis of the band is too far south for them to see the heaviest snow.

Posted January 19th at 8:58 AM
Jules (Ilion):

Matt: Do you you think we will get into some of that great mild weather even a little above next month...Is
La Nina still around :)

Posted January 19th at 9:00 AM
Matt Lanza:

Jules: La Nina is still around for sure. But, there is just so much cold air up north that when you tap it, like we will this weekend, it gets reallll cold. As far as a warm up? The NAO isn't changing much, so we should still not see anything stay in place for too long. The PNA in the Pacific goes negative soon too. This could lend to a brief warm up in the 7-10 day range, followed by a return to seasonably cool toward the start of February.

Posted January 19th at 9:21 AM
Jules (Ilion):

Thanks Matt:... concerning the lakes Superior and Heron ect. I know Ontario doesn't and Erie does but do the first two I mentioned freeze over ??

Posted January 19th at 9:37 AM
James (Sauquoit):

Matt: Welcome back. I would not want to be in your shoes this weekend. What would cause the Heavy snow band to shift south and nail the Utica area? I do not have the expertise that many of the folks here have I am more of a reader than contributor.

Posted January 19th at 9:39 AM
Matt Lanza:

James: It's all in the wind. If the winds come in just a little more northerly than is currently anticipated, then this could happen. I don't think the valley gets it, but I do think at times, it will be messy between Utica and the Tug Hill.

Jules: Yes, both Huron and Superior do freeze, although Superior only freezes over on average every 20 years.

Posted January 19th at 9:54 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Thanks for showing the inhouse model.I was curious on what that was showing.I just can't wait to get this event underway and start watching radar instead of models.Should be a good show.

Posted January 19th at 10:30 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

I'm surprised the western lakes are quiet.Only looks like some weak activity back there.That seems a bit odd giving the cold airmass.

Posted January 19th at 11:07 AM
Matt Lanza:

I'm "signing off" for now. We'll see how this unfolds. Jill is in tonight, tomorrow morning and tomorrow evening. I will be home, but probably in the blog occasionally. Sit back, relax and enjoy the snow if you can!

Posted January 19th at 11:10 AM
Patty:

Matt: I'm new at this so I'm a little confused. I'm sure you can make me understand. What is the difference in thinking between the blog snowfall map and the in house model. The blog map has Herkimer in the trace-3" and the in house model has us in the 3-8". Are you thinking it is not going to shift as south as the model thinks ?

Posted January 19th at 11:12 AM
ken:

another bust for utica.i said earlier utica never really gets in on lake effect and once again it proves to be true.im starting to think we will never get a good shot of heavy snow this year.very frustrating.

Posted January 19th at 12:21 PM
Matt Lanza:

Ken: Utica took in over 30" from the mega LE event last winter followed by 26" on Valentine's Day...there are others who are suffering worse than we are!

Patty: The biggest difference is this. The in-house model is just that...a model. It's a model's forecast. The blog map is THE forecast...what we put together based on multiple models and our experience. I was just showing the model map to illustrate 10-20" totals through tomorrow evening in Oswego County and perhaps the Tug Hill. For your purposes, use my map in the blog or the "snowfall map."

Posted January 19th at 12:56 PM
Patty:

Thanks so much Matt. I'm trying to learn all about this....You are such a great help. In herkimer we are 33 degrees and it is spitting a flake of snow every now and then.

Posted January 19th at 1:25 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Albany is going with a Warning now for S Herkimer County north of the valley.

Posted January 19th at 1:37 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING for both Southern and Northern Herkimer counties!? I think NWS Albany has no clue what is going on here as the band is supposed to be north of the area. They did say 6-12" inches with locally 18 inches in places. Heaviest snows would be between Route 29 and Route 8. I have never seen a LESW verify for town here and most the time they say a foot and we barely get an inch.

Posted January 19th at 1:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

The models continue to slowly edge a bit southward. The Buffalo WRF model is now about 5 miles north of the Valley with the axis of heavy snow. Central Oswego County gets slammed in this run with almost 2" liquid through tomorrow evening. I think 20" is a lock for some parts of that area by tomorrow evening. For Utica it says 2-4" are possible. I think one of the highest impacted areas may be between the Valley and the Tug. This is why I hedged the 3-8 and 8-16" bands a little further south than I would have normally done. This won't be as long lasting as last February's LES, but this will leave its mark.

Posted January 19th at 1:56 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

BGM will probably do the same for S Oneida for north of the thruway.The 12Z did shift a few miles south.

Posted January 19th at 1:57 PM
Matt Lanza:

As an aside, I would consider shifting that 3-8" zone down to at least the top of the word "Little Falls" on the map. After looking at new data, I would consider shifting all the zones on that map south by about 5-8 miles or so. Someone up north will be using a yard stick though by this time tomorrow.

Posted January 19th at 1:59 PM
Alex:

Is the Old Forge area still looking to get hit good or is it drifting to far south now??

Posted January 19th at 2:10 PM
Matt Lanza:

Alex: Old Forge is going to get snow. I don't think that they'll get the real heavy stuff like the Tug or Oswego County or even north-central Oneida County are going to get. But they'll freshen the trails up.

Posted January 19th at 2:15 PM
Mel (Westernville):

What is the mean wind flow looking like now? Sounds like i might be in the target area now. NWS puts Westernville in Northern Oneida County but just barely. I think Rome is the northern most portion of Southern Oneida County for their forecasting purposes. Was supposed to drive to NJ tomorrow for sales meetings this week but sounds like I will wait until things wind down MOnday.

Posted January 19th at 2:23 PM
Jimmy DeFazio(New Hartford):

So now Utica has at least a chance at 3-6 inches?

Posted January 19th at 2:30 PM
jon:

the warning area is just 4 to 5 miles east of utica.is there a good chance that we can get into the warning area in utica south of the thruway?

Posted January 19th at 2:30 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The snowfall as greatly intensifed over the last 15 min. I would say right now the rate is 1-2 inches per hour. Vissibility is under one quarter of a mile.

Matt... I put two yard sticks together for this weekend :)
I expect we will see four feet plus when all is said and done.

Posted January 19th at 2:39 PM
Matt Lanza:

No offense to the NWS on this, but rather than paying such close attention to "warning vs. no warning," focus on the forecast. We know this is going to be a big time event. We just need to focus on where the heaviest is going to fall. Again, if you're in Utica, like I've been saying... I don't think the heavy snow makes it to the Valley. North of the Valley and you're in business I think.

Mel: I think you're in the bullseye area for Oneida County. That Lake Delta-Westernville to Ava over to Camden area is the one I think will see the most personally. We'll see if it unfolds that way.

Posted January 19th at 3:03 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Just picked up in intensity here - visibility less than half a mile.

Posted January 19th at 3:08 PM
Karen ~~Westmoreland:

starting to lightly snow here now...

Posted January 19th at 3:11 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

NAM18 clocks a good for a couple hours before the band settles north.

Posted January 19th at 3:41 PM
Dawn in Forestport:

will this snow be heavy enough to possibly cause any power interruptions in the Forestport area?

Posted January 19th at 3:41 PM
Michelle:

Light snow here in holland patent

Matt or anyone that can answer if matt isnt around lol: We have to go to Rochester tomorrow night around 7 we are leaving what should we expect for weather on the thruway ??

Posted January 19th at 3:41 PM
Dom-Tech:

Just started to snow heavy here(Oriskany Airport)

Posted January 19th at 3:42 PM
Anthony:

Heavy snow has been falling for about 20 min here in N. Marcy..... roads are already covered and becoming slick..... lets hope the band settles a tad further south tonight/tomorrow

Posted January 19th at 3:44 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah it's coming down hard here too.Visability about a half mile or less.

Posted January 19th at 3:44 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Snow has lightened up considerably. Now the LES Band is moving southward. It's now in northern Oswego and Lewis counties.

Posted January 19th at 3:51 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Matt was your thoughts on the latest NAM run.Are we close enough to the storm to put any stock into a 18Z run?

Posted January 19th at 3:54 PM
ken:

snowing very hard in east utica right now.rob is that the band you were talking about for a couple of hours?and what are you seeing in the nam,any good news for utica south of thruway?

Posted January 19th at 4:05 PM
Matt Lanza:

Current snows are courtesy of the Arctic front. No lightning noted at this time.

Dawn: This will be a light, fluffy snow, and I don't think winds are going to be outrageously strong, so you should be okay.

Rob: 18Z model runs are useless for storms. But lake effect isn't a storm. It's so driven by small scale processes that even this close in, it's tough to put much stock into the NAM. I am a heavy user of the local WRF models and the SUNY Stony Brook MM5 at this stage of the game...almost exclusively. That said, the NAM is just latching on to what the NWS WRF models hinted at earlier, with that brief, but notable southern shift. Key tonight will be the 00Z MM5, because it has been steadfast regarding the band staying put up north. Also, Jill may be able to shed some light on what our in-house model is saying. THat was also hinting at the southern shift this morning. It was running the 12Z when I left, and through 2 PM tomorrow, it kept the heavier snow just (barely) north of Rome.

Posted January 19th at 4:10 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Ok thanks...hopefully we'll see some more southern trends tonight.I picked up a 1/2" so far with the front.

Posted January 19th at 4:24 PM
Jill Reale:

I just took a look at our in house model and it has moved the band into northern Oneida county (Rome and points north). That is the area that looks to hit the jackpot....more later

Posted January 19th at 4:25 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Also got a 1/2" with the frontal passage - now just light snow - looks like the band is starting to take shape all the way back west across the lake.

Posted January 19th at 4:39 PM
Shaun:

Is Westernville And Central Oneida County Going To Hit Over 10 Inches Because Snowmobilers and Snowboarders would love this. I hope it hits!

Posted January 19th at 4:39 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The Stony Brook MM5 850mb is showing very cold temperatures.

Matt.... I have a question. The GLIN website is showing Lake Ontario surface temperatures around 39-40. Thats about 2 degrees warmer than it should be this time of year right?

Posted January 19th at 5:03 PM
Barb:

East Winfield just started getting snow about 15 minutes ago. The roads are covered so we already have our "trace"!

Posted January 19th at 5:12 PM
Matt Lanza:

Becky: While not as bad as last year, yes the lake is above normal at this time. You combine that with a classic LES setup and whammo.

As a point of emphasis, please post AND email your totals to us through this event, especially northern Oneida and Central Herkimer Counties. If anyone from Oswego County or points elsewhere reads this, we'll gladly accept your totals too! But it's the updated totals that really helps everyone. Thanks in advance!

Posted January 19th at 5:32 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Some of my family lives In Mexico, Parish and Pulaski. I will to give let you know how much they get.

Posted January 19th at 5:43 PM
Bob (Cooperstown):

Very light fine snow here Temp.25 Pressure 29.83

Posted January 19th at 6:04 PM
Andrea (Utica):

Any reports from Middleville or Salisbury ares? Projections?

Posted January 19th at 7:13 PM
MikeD:

Andrea, looking to go ridin up that way?

Posted January 19th at 7:33 PM
Bill Kardas:

Boy, that lake effect band may come awfully close to the valley. I really like the going WKTV forecast. My friend and I are going to go and take a ride up north tomorrow and check it out.

Posted January 19th at 7:43 PM
Lisa:

I know the focus is on the LES for tonight and tomorrow, but looking ahead to Monday morning commute (will that be a messy one for Utica/Rome area..?? Or should we be done with snow by then?

Posted January 19th at 8:11 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

like bill said that band will certainly verge on coming into the valley if not make it into the valley at times, producing very heavy snow at times. check out my final snow map for this event. http://image60.webshots.com/660/4/52/15/2090452150099650872vKMLKy_fs.jpg

Posted January 19th at 9:01 PM
ken:

i cant get your map.what are you calling for utica?

Posted January 19th at 9:04 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The band is just to my north. just started to snow a little bit.
Snowfall should become much more significant it about 15 min.

Posted January 19th at 9:14 PM
stevo (rome):

bring on my snow!!!!!! i want at least a foot!!!!! Matt do you think we will see that in west rome?

Posted January 19th at 9:20 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

Ken, i have Utica in the 3-8 inch range, probably around 5 inches. rome have in the 8-16 inch range with probably around 10 inches.

Posted January 19th at 9:27 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

i think the bands will get into Utica for a time, but the problem is they wont sit over utica for a prolonged period of time. probably about 2 hrs of lt snow, then 2 hrs of intense snow followed by 2 hrs of light snow, or something like that is my best guess.

Posted January 19th at 9:28 PM
Dan (Herkimer):

To Matt Lanza: Do you think Herkimer will get hard from this snow storm? Because I hope we see a foot or more by tuesday!!!!

Posted January 19th at 9:35 PM
Anthony:

The one factor I have been seeing is that when the trough comes through it should help keep the winds WNW for awhile and should really enhance the LES which could significantly increase the totals where that occurs. I have a feeling it will occur around or just north of the thruway.

Posted January 19th at 9:36 PM
Dan (Herkimer):

I hope there is a snow day on tuesday and wedensday right here in herkimer!!!!

Posted January 19th at 9:36 PM
Dan (Herkimer):

LET IT SNOW REALLY HARD RIGHT HERE IN HERKIMER!!!!

Posted January 19th at 9:41 PM
Jill Reale:

I am waiting for the MM5 and WRF to come in and then I will have my updated forecast on where the heaviest snow will fall. The Lake band is slowly moving into extreme Northern Oneida county.

Posted January 19th at 9:45 PM
Justin(Whitesboro):

The band looks very strong over the tug hill, and oswego county and then seems to lessen in intensity as you head towards eastern lewis and western herkimer counties.

Posted January 19th at 9:49 PM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Hey Jill, Did the cold front make it through yet?

Posted January 19th at 9:53 PM
Jill Reale:

Cold front moved in mid-late this afternoon with a burst of snow. The cold air will begin to filter in throughout the night. Buffalo has dropped to 13. We are sitting at 22º

Posted January 19th at 9:56 PM
Justin(Whitesboro):

ok was not sure because i just took a look at a surface map and it shows the front just passing through sryracuse.

Posted January 19th at 9:58 PM
heather(german flatts):

hey all just a quick note it snowed pretty hard here from @4-5 not alot of accumlation though it has stopped snowing just cold now. well back to the 8 girls i have staying over have a safe night.and keep warm its cold

Posted January 19th at 10:04 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

just wanted to let everybody know that i got my acceptance letter to SUNY Oswego yesterday, and will be attending Oswego starting next fall!!! finally i can join in on the Lake effect fun lol

Posted January 19th at 10:09 PM
Donna(New Hartford):

Where's the snow? Not even a flake in the sky here in NH :(

Posted January 19th at 10:10 PM
Bets`West Leyden:

let it snow! let it snow! let it snow ,,, It is snowing so hard here like blizzard conditions ,,If dont have to travel PLEASE DONT,Temps are at 18*winds are howling and fine grainy snow,comeing down hard roads are very slick,Just a taste of good old' fashion mother nature.

Posted January 19th at 10:15 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Been Snowing here fairly hard for about 40 min. I would say we have picked up about one and a half inches of snow.

Posted January 19th at 10:15 PM
Josh (salisbury/dolgville):

Well looks like more snow for us now, which is a good thing.... NOAA is showing 5-12" bo tomorrow night, WKTV is now showing 5-8", and Mike is showing us in the 8-16".... We shall see what happens (hopefully we will be buried, or at leat i can hope).

Posted January 19th at 10:16 PM
Dr. Ralph Lamberto:

Congratulations Mike, Waiting for s+ snow in New Hartford up on the hill.

Posted January 19th at 10:17 PM
Andrea (utica):

MikeD lookin to ride next weekend. Hoping to layer up on the base thats there.

Posted January 19th at 10:18 PM
stevo (rome):

anyone know what the cape is at? are we gonna see some lightning in this band?

Posted January 19th at 10:18 PM
Stacy (Stratford):

Here's a HUGE Congratulations to you Mike on your acceptance! I'm sure its very well deserved. Hats off to you. Good luck on your road ahead as you persue your career in meteorology.

Posted January 19th at 10:20 PM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Band seems to be falling apart a bit in the last 30 min. Any fronts coming through at this point?

Posted January 19th at 10:21 PM
stevo (rome):

its shifting it is normal to weaken a bit. when it settles you will know it!!!

Posted January 19th at 10:32 PM
Jim in North Uica:

Big Congrats Mike M. I can see it now next year at this time, you won't even go home on breaks and holidays because you might miss the big one, lol! Good luck to you!

Posted January 19th at 10:50 PM
Matt (HP):

Looks like HP may get some accumulations then!
Bill how is the mouth feeling :-P

Posted January 19th at 11:00 PM
Teresa in Utica:

I have been reading this blog for the past two storms. So much info. Thanks for all the great information. Does anyone know when it will start snowing again in Utica area?

Posted January 19th at 11:00 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

18 degrees here with clear skies. Picked up 1.00" inch of snow with the arctic frontal passage. I still find the LESW for Southern Herkimer ridiculous! As much as I want snow, I just don't see how we are going to even come close to those numbers. Lake band just isn't that impressive looking on radar at this time. It does appear to want to go more WNW but it's eastward extent is not impressive at all for S. Herkimer. I'm going for 2-4" inches by Tuesday morning from Route 20 northward to Route 29 for the whole event unless of course this thing really gets cranking.

Posted January 19th at 11:09 PM
Jill Reale:

First off, I would like to congrat Mike M. for getting accepted into college!!! Let me tell you first hand that college is an amazing experience (I miss it from time to time:).

Now on to the weather....I have updated the snowfall map on the weather main page. You will notice that I have cut back accumulations. One element that is hurting the lake effect band is the dry air moving in. Dewpoints have dropped into the lower single digits and with the lack of moisture, the lake effect band has not become as organized as we wished it would. The lake effect band will probably weaken overnight before dropping to the south, coming close to the valley in the morning as a shortwave passes. Then the band lifts back north to Tug and parks itself and gains intensity.

I just would like to remind everyone that I will not be able to answer "in my backyard" snowfall amounts because things are hectic and busy right now with bill out, I can't handle specific questions about places. Remember the blog rules. So please use the map to figure out how much is expected for your town. That is why we put it out there.

I am off to bed to take a "nap" before being back here early tomorrow morning.

Posted January 19th at 11:21 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Mike m, CONGRATS on being accepted to SUNY Oswego! One of my closest friends in High School was accepted to Oswego in September of 2007 and he said he absolutely loves it. You are in for quite a treat regarding lake effect snow as you are going to experience some of the most extreme weather you have ever experienced. Make sure to keep us informed while you are out there!

Posted January 19th at 11:22 PM
stevo (rome):

the band looks to be intensifying again. and it looks to be widening a bit as well.

Posted January 19th at 11:35 PM
stevo (rome):

looks like rome will be in the action in the next couple hours.

Posted January 19th at 11:36 PM
Matt (HP):

Cool,
Im headed back this fall to Brockport to finish up my met degree.

College is fun, but make the most of it because it goes by fast.

Lisa, Yes I went To HP

Let It Snow

Posted January 19th at 11:40 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I had a feeling that the dry air would work against this band.Radar imagery was was not impressive this morning in the western lakes.Hopefully it will start feeding off itself and get help with moisture from the upper lakes.Canadian radar is getting a little more active.

Posted January 19th at 11:44 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Light snow just started here. Was down in Rome and hit snow past the Lake. by the time we hit Quaker Hill the road was covered. 18 degrees.

Posted January 19th at 11:49 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

thanks everybody for the congrats. jim u might be right , ill end up staying on campus during x mas break to experience an epic LES event or something lol. Michael, dont worry ill deffinetly be on this blog all the time while im at oswego!!

Posted January 19th at 11:51 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

yep, unfortunetly dry air may prevent the band from moving too far inland, at least initially, so my amounts on my map may have been too high for inland areas, such as Utica, dogelville, stratford, old forge. but you never know, perhaps the band can gets its act together at some point in time.

Posted January 19th at 11:56 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Mike did you have the link to the WRF?I had a problem with my computer earlier and had to use system recovery.Now I lost all my weather files.What a time for that to happen!

Posted January 20th at 12:04 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

which one, the one on penn state Ewall, or the one through buffalos NWS?

Posted January 20th at 12:08 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

The BUF one

Posted January 20th at 12:10 AM
mike m( binghamton):

yea, it is : http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/mm/wrf/wrfhome.html

Posted January 20th at 12:13 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

you know what would be cool, and automatically refreshing blog.....

Posted January 20th at 12:14 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

to me this looks like a very good event from about Rome North, any where from Rome to the thruway corridor is going to be a very close call, with a very tight gradient in amounts. certainly nothern oneida, oswego, and southern lewis counties will get nailed with more than 20 inches of snow with up to 40 inches in some areas(probably s. lewsis couty)

Posted January 20th at 12:21 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Thanks Mike...I couldn't find it anywhere.I don't know if that will verify east of Oneida county.It's having a hard enough time getting to Rome.It won't take much dbz on radar to produce heavy snow though with 30:1 ratios.

Posted January 20th at 12:23 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

looking at the latest 00z data,a little closer, i would just like to add, it appears that only a 10 mile shift south in the band could still casue some moderate to high amounts for the stratford, Dogelville area. right now the models would indicate about 4.5 inches for dogelville and 7 inches for strtford, however a 10 mile shift south would yield about 8 inches for Dogelville, and 14 inches for stratford; so as usual there are some very tough calls out there, that even the best model combined with the best forecaster are unable to make make.

Posted January 20th at 12:26 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

Rob, according to the WRF model, the band should reorganize soon and head toward utica in decent shape, then lift north again tomorrow, before dropping back south tomorrow night. also tomorrow night the WRF is indicating that the band will make it much further inland( near stratford) than tonight. is the model right...who knows lol?

Posted January 20th at 12:31 AM
stevo (rome):

snow just started falling here in rome about 3 min ago

Posted January 20th at 12:32 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

well im off to bed, good luck to everyone in the snow department!!1

Posted January 20th at 12:35 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Mike we're going to need alot of luck in the valley...say your prayers for us tonight.

Posted January 20th at 12:39 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Agreed Rob. Looks like the dry air is acting like a roadblock regarding its eastward extent. Something drastic would have to occur to get this eastward. The funniest thing is the warning for Southern Herkimer is out until I believe 1p.m. Monday!!! And then a day or two ago, they said that the snowband would make it "AT LEAST" into the capital district! They have way more confidence than I do right now of warning criteria snow verifying for S. herk. NYSDOT reporting severe snow/ice conditions throughout Oswego county. I would estimate snowfall rates of 2-3" inches per hour throughout that area right now.

Posted January 20th at 12:40 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah I was just looking at Oswego webcam.It's coming down hard and they're not even in the heaviest part.

Posted January 20th at 12:52 AM
stevo (rome):

whats going on here? the band is lined up with rome,and its falling apart before it gets here?

Posted January 20th at 1:00 AM
stevo (rome):

thats typical. everything goes right around rome! even thunderstorms in the summer. its like we have a force field over us. Ridiculous!!!!!!

Posted January 20th at 1:03 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Light snow has been falling here the past 30 minutes.Perfect flow but it's just a weak band at this point.

Posted January 20th at 2:04 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

14.5 degrees here with a little "diamond dust" falling. I have to give it credit, that snowband is trying so hard to edge eastward and into the valley. I think if winds were 10mph stronger and temps and dewpoints were a little higher, this band would be much better organized. The dry air is putting a cap on this bands potential. If we had a more moist airmass in place, this thing could have been huge.

Posted January 20th at 2:35 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

This would have been almost perfect right now for the valley. Band looks like it wants to go a little more north westerly as it is aiming right at Onondaga County.

Posted January 20th at 2:42 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

I know this frustrating.This is just what we wanted to happen but it alot more intense form.Picked up 1/2" in the last hour and a half.

Posted January 20th at 3:07 AM
Scott (Holland Patent):

6:00 AM. Snow plow just went by. Doesn't look like we picked up more than 2". The snow band looks weak. BOOOOOOOO

Posted January 20th at 6:05 AM
James (Sauquoit):

Same here. Sander just went by. Lucky if we have 1/2 inch of new snow.

Posted January 20th at 6:15 AM
Scott (Holland Patent:

Can someone provide an update on this snow band? Looks like its pointed in our direction but it has pulled back over the lake. Was this expected??? Is it going to fire up again before it moves away from our area? WKTV Weather Team, WHERE ARE YOU?

Posted January 20th at 6:19 AM
randy Vitullo:

It is snowing moderately in Holland Patent, but the radar is not showing it. I am assuming that there is a problem with the radar. I checked several radar sites and they all show the same, but it is snowing just the same..............

Posted January 20th at 6:58 AM
Jan Sterling:

The radar beam is probably shooting over the top of the precip generating portion of the low clouds. Northern Cayuga and western Oswego counties are getting dumped on now..notice the faint anticyclonic curve of the snow band.

Jan

Posted January 20th at 7:07 AM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

Picked up about 2.5" overnight with moderate snow falling.........looks like the LES is going to crank this afternoon......lets hope the wind direction stays close to what it is right now.......winds should also pick up this afternoon this will also help bring the more intense snows further inland.

Posted January 20th at 7:38 AM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

WIXT out of syracuse wixt.com/weather has best radar for LES if anyone is interested

Posted January 20th at 7:40 AM
stevo (rome):

its snowing moderately here in rome. we picked up about 6 inches overnight.

Posted January 20th at 7:43 AM
Michelle (HP):

Snowing in holland Patent Rt 12 north and south bound are extremly messy ,slippery and unplowed use extreme caution !

Posted January 20th at 7:45 AM
stevo (rome):

why is the band arched like that? i never see that before!

Posted January 20th at 7:47 AM
stevo (rome):

it looks like its getting some help from huron. maybe thats why

Posted January 20th at 7:49 AM
Lisa:

MATT- I went to HP also...... not sure if i should mention when I graduated, it will make me feel old (but i can say I am still in my 20's)....haha

Posted January 20th at 7:51 AM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Anthony: The WIXT/WSYR site DOES seem to show what the other radars are not showing! Thanks.
The band looks huge and well organized just north of Syracuse. Seems to have moved more south that predicted. Gotta love lake effect.

Posted January 20th at 7:52 AM
Jill Reale:

Thanks for the updates everyone!!! Radar is having difficulty picking up the snow north of Utica. It is snowing light/moderate onto Smith Hill and we have picked up 4 inches so far. I have tweaked the snowfall map a bit, moving the blue region (7-14") for the Rome area and points north. Southern Oswego county is getting nailed right now with snow. The trough has pushed the banded into southern Oswego county but after the trough moves through, the band will move back up north and intensify. Southern Tug Hill and northern Oneida county still looks to be the bullseye. (basically areas north of Rome and west of Route 26)

Posted January 20th at 7:53 AM
randy Vitullo:

Syracuse stations radar is showing the entire band. The NWS radar, BUFKIT and our local are not showing the band past oswego. Why our these venues not showing the snow? Maybe its because I am using a Mac................... Is anyone else having this problem?

Posted January 20th at 7:55 AM
Jill Reale:

I would also ask that if you have snowfall amounts (name, location, amount and time measured), to email them to weather@wktv.com. It is much easier to sort through the emails than go through the weather blog.

Posted January 20th at 7:57 AM
Jill Reale:

Hannibal(just north of the Onondaga/Oswego county line) received 18 inches since last night!

Posted January 20th at 7:58 AM
Justin (Little Falls):

Its been snowing here in Little Falls off and on since about 1 AM. Picked up about 1.5" of real fluffy snow, hard to measure it, any wind blows it away. Snow at times gets to a moderate rate coming down, but has backed off to flurries now.

Posted January 20th at 8:15 AM
Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

Very little accumulation so far.

Posted January 20th at 8:18 AM
Jill Reale:

Lake effect band is slowly moving to the north, it is now located in South/Central Oswego County.

Posted January 20th at 8:57 AM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Jill, do you know what is wrong with the models there not showing the band extending any further than oswego county?

Posted January 20th at 9:00 AM
Bests~West leyden:

WHERE"S THE SNOW!!!!!!!WHEN WILL IT BE HERE IN WEST LEYDEN ???????,,,,,,,,

Posted January 20th at 9:01 AM
Jill Reale:

Justin: It's not the models, it is the radar from Montague, that is having difficulty picking up the snow across central Oneida County.

But the snow that has been around, is lightening up has the lake effect band slowly moves north. Snow will be in West Leyden in the afternoon.

Posted January 20th at 9:06 AM
john:

better get out the yardstick to measure the 1 inch of snow in west leyden

Posted January 20th at 9:12 AM
Jack-Dolgeville:

Dolgeville 9:14am 2 inches since 9:00pm last night. Moderate snow falling, 16 degrees, wind very very light

Posted January 20th at 9:15 AM
Betsi~West Leyden:

John i hope when i get the yardstick out and see but 1 inch everytime.. (Id be 1 happy women)...Seeing im on the tugg ...never fails, Think it here sooner then we think ,starting to snow and temp is at 6*

Posted January 20th at 9:27 AM
Matt Lanza:

Hi gang...just kind of assessing the situation from a non-forecast perspective. Snow totals right now are 23" in Hannibal, 14" in Oswego and 26" in Fair Haven (on the Cayuga/Oswego line almost, right on the lake). But as we've seen and read... 1" to 4" on average in our viewing area (those of you from the Thruway south shouldn't be too disappointed...we did make it clear we thought totals would be low there!). But 3-6"+ in western Oneida near the Oswego line. What does this tell us? It says that this band is ridiculous, yes....but it's having a VERY tough time getting too far inland...at least the heavy stuff is. This could be a function of dry air over us. We'll have to see if this continues or if we continue to see struggles. At least many of us are getting some snow. I'll be on here this afternoon while Jill rests up for the Sunday evening shift.

Posted January 20th at 9:31 AM
Bob (Cooperstown):

Less than trace snow overnight Temp 10 dead calm

Posted January 20th at 9:52 AM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Just got an report from Alder Creek and they picked up 1 inch since last night. What is wrong with this Lake Effect snow band?

Posted January 20th at 10:11 AM
Scott (Holland Patent:

Snowing hard in HP. Hope it keeps up. Haven't seen a plow go by since 6:00 AM.

Posted January 20th at 10:18 AM
Jill Reale:

Adam Musyt just called, 9 inches of snow in Rome so far. I am off to go take a nap, Matt will be helping me out on the blog in between my shifts and with snowfall totals. As a reminder, if you have snowfall amounts, PLEASE email weather@wktv.com with the amount, location and time measured. It will help us out greatly if you email the amounts. Thank you so much!! I will be back later this afternoon. Keep warm.

Posted January 20th at 10:19 AM
Lisa:

So here I am 8 miles from Rome in oriskany and we have no where near 9 inches.. we have 2 inches if that.. strange how the weather works

Posted January 20th at 10:28 AM
Gordon (Northwestern):

What happened to the snow forecast for Northern Oneida county? Just got off my midnight shift at Griffiss at 9AM, and had at least 8" of snow at Griffiss, so I thought since the heavier snow amounts were forecast for Northern Oneida County that when I got home just North of Northwestern we would have over a foot, but to my surprise, only 1/2", with the sun poking through the clouds. Are we goping to get any LES up here in Northern Oneida County?

Posted January 20th at 10:38 AM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Hey Matt, any reports from HP, Remsen, Alder Creek Areas?

Posted January 20th at 10:38 AM
Matt(Marcy):

we got 6.9 inches in marcy

Posted January 20th at 10:41 AM
Justin(Whitesboro):

is is still snowing up your way still?

Posted January 20th at 10:43 AM
Tony CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

WOW, that much in Rome and Griffiss? What a weird band. I'm a couple miles from downtown Rome and 2" tops here.

Posted January 20th at 10:45 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Only 2" of new snow here. Has snowed almost continuously but I have never seen snow so light in intensity - the sun is half out. Looking at the radar the band is bullseyed on us but as soon as it hits the Oneida/Oswego line it evaporates. Was hoping it would create enough of its own environment to overcome the dryness but I guess not. Matt do you see any chance in it doing that later today? Trying to decidee wehter it is worth hanging around today or driving to NJ if this will be a non event.

Posted January 20th at 10:53 AM
Michelle (HP):

my mom and grandma live in remsen and they said they got maybe a inch if that so far since last night im here in holland patent getting clobbered with the white stuff and it is sunny in remsen they said with no snow falling :)

Posted January 20th at 11:01 AM
DT:

You might better nowcast this LE event.

Posted January 20th at 11:11 AM
Big Mike (by the falls in Forestport):

Woke up this morning, expecting alot of snow, not even enough to use a broom. Bascially the sun keeps poking through, very light flurries once in a while, but no accumalation.

Posted January 20th at 11:16 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

In West Leyden, we have only picked up 4 inches so far. I talked to my family in Oswego County. Mexico received 20 inches so far and parish has 18 inches. They said it is snowing very hard at this time.

Posted January 20th at 11:22 AM
Lisa:

I see that Southern Herkimer county now has a LES warning issued for parts including Ilion and Herkimer calling for 6 inches or above, so my question is: are we still only expected to see only a trace up through Monday?

Posted January 20th at 11:29 AM
Matt Lanza:

Unfortunately we really can't speak about NWS warnings right now. They're doing the best they can. When you've got 9" in Rome and 2" in Westmoreland/Oriskany (2-4 miles difference)...warnings tend to become a problem since the counties are so much bigger...but this is lake effect...that's how it operates.

That said: We have a tremendous lake band across central Oswego and northern Oneida/southern Lewis right now, with snow rates likely 2-4" per hour or more in parts of it. As an upper level system slowly approaches today, that band is staying put or drifting a bit north. Heaviest snow right now is north and west of Rome. There will be an incredibly sharp cutoff to snow totals with this event. There is little else going on aside from LES, so if you're under the band, you get rocked...if you're not...you may get snow, but not prolific snow like we're seeing right now. This band isn't going to move much this afternoon, so totals by evening are going to be outrageous underneath it. We continue to request totals from northern and central Oneida County.

As an aside, radar is VERY deceiving in this situation. It will be tough to see the lake snows unless they're crazy on NWS radar. The reason for this is that the NWS radar has two flaws. First, it's located on the top of the Tug Hill. Second, the radar sends the beam out at an angle (currently 0.5 degrees above the horizontal). Therefore, the further from the radar site, the higher up the radar is looking. LES is very low topped...so in many instances, the beam overshoots the band. As a result, the radar misses some of it. It's tough. Even having your own radar (like 9 in Syracuse) isn't perfect...but it certainly helps.

Posted January 20th at 11:45 AM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Matt, so your saying that it is snowing pretty hard across northern oneida county, southern lewis right now but the radar is not showing it?

Posted January 20th at 11:53 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Matt wouldn't that disturbance shift the band pretty close to the valley again this evening?

Posted January 20th at 12:00 PM
Matt Lanza:

Justin: It could be. I'm not there and I have not seen reports, so I do not know.

Rob: It could. Last night, I felt it would really crash south and maybe even split into multiple bands. Looking at upstream observations today though, winds are not nearly as NW as they were last night, so I have my doubts it'll get beyond the valley. But, looking at what's happening with the flow in Wisconsin, Michigan, etc, I'm not so sure this thing will come crashing south very far. At the very least, it will certainly come closer though I think.

Posted January 20th at 12:16 PM
Tony CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

Same question here. Lewis County getting slammed then?? Guess we'll be trecking up Rt. 12 through Lowville to Watertown. Daughter came home from Clarkson, and needs to get back. Should be a fun ride this afternoon. Boyfriend shall meet us somewhere I hope. I'll get some picts too :-) And Matt, the NWS can adjust the angle of the doppler, cant they?

Posted January 20th at 12:18 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Still just light snow here - and with the wind whipping it around it is not sticking to my snow boards.

Posted January 20th at 12:21 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I watched radar lastnight till 4am and we had the perfect flow for the valley from 12-4.We should of gotten about 6" if the dry air didn't invade.I received 1" since midnight.Family in Fulton reports 22".

Posted January 20th at 12:23 PM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Will the dry air eventually move out and extend the band father into eastern oneida county?

Posted January 20th at 12:26 PM
Tom:

Up in Remsen we havent seen anything since this whole thing started. Maybe a quarter of an inch last night at 10 or so but nothing since. Just overcast and no sign of snow.

Posted January 20th at 12:31 PM
Matt Lanza:

If anything, as the high builds in, the air may dry further. I mean, I'll be frank with you...I don't know that that is what's causing the snow to not get too far inland. We got 9" in Rome...that doesn't give the dry air theory much weight. It could be just how well developed the band was. Remember last February, we had people under this honking band on radar, but it wasn't snowing. The circulation within the band can sometimes act to keep the snow focused in a very, very narrow area within it. So that could also be an issue.

I've updated snow totals and will continue to through kickoff of the Patriots game...then I will be a little less frequent. Keep posting totals and we'll keep updating. I also have an "out of town scoreboard" up on that link, so any totals from Oswego County or beyond we'll be keeping track of as well. I like to consider our snow totals pages a combined source of all the NWS offices and reports when possible. Thanks!

Posted January 20th at 12:32 PM
Justin(Whitesboro):

The bands looks like its trying to extend farther inland and also moving farther north into tug hill, but as you just said matt the high might build in and disrupt the band again.

Posted January 20th at 12:38 PM
Becky West Leyden):

We are getting moderate snowfall at this time. It has been going from light to moderate for the last hour. It was not to bad during the morning hours. The intensity has slowly been picking up.

Posted January 20th at 12:40 PM
Gary (Schuyler):

Rob,

You're right on. Through the years I've seen many times that the immediate Utica area is in the trajectory for LES when Fulton gets hit. As you mention also in an earlier post also, if the air hadn't dried out, the Utica area would be getting a lot more than what we're seeing. Generally, for LES to hit Utica with any substantial snow, there can't be dry air. Radar shows it well this morning with the band not extending inland very far. My recollection is that the biggest LES events that hit Utica are when the air temperatures are 15/20 degrees or more. 10 degrees and the subsequent lower dew point just aren't the right formula.

Posted January 20th at 12:43 PM
Matt Lanza:

We may actually see this band lift out of the viewing area in a couple hours. Northward drift continues, as the next shortwave approaches. This will place the band firmly on the Tug Hill. Band should remain extremely well developed though.

Posted January 20th at 12:46 PM
Jules (Ilion):

one inch at Ilion at 1:pm

Posted January 20th at 12:59 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I know Gary it's frustrating.It'll happen eventually.Just checked a cam from Parish High School.Visability is about zero.Couldn't even see how much snow they have.

Posted January 20th at 1:05 PM
Big Mike (by the falls in Forestport):

Really no change here, still sun shine on and off, very fine flurries once in a while, no accumulation yet.

Posted January 20th at 1:08 PM
heather(german flatts):

quick input its not snowing here just very cold temp. 22 but windy gusty.and picking up more and more.

Posted January 20th at 1:24 PM
Tim (Salisbury):

So far we have picked up since yesterday 3" very light Fluffy Snow. Very light Flurries falling with temp 11 degrees here in Salisbury.

Posted January 20th at 1:40 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

It is snowing very hard here. I would say the rate is two inches per hour at this time. The visibility is under 500 feet. The roadways are becoming treacherous because of hard packed snow. I expect the band will keep Intensifying through the corse of the afternoon, if it stays over northern Oneida and southern Lewis, it should become very substantial when sun goes down.

Posted January 20th at 1:47 PM
jim (rome):

does anyone think that this band will drop south into rome tonight.its windy and partly sunny where i am in rome right now

Posted January 20th at 1:51 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Jim... I think the LES will say Northern Oneida and Southern Lewis, with NW Oneida and SW Lewis Central Oswego getting hit very hard.

Posted January 20th at 1:58 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jim: I expect this will settle back to the south later. Whether it gets to Rome, I'm not sure, but I would think based on experience it gets in there at times. Canadian radar is showing NW flow off Georgian Bay, WNW flow off Huron and W flow across Ontario...lots of convergence over the lake right now...I expect this band to maintain, if not intensify further.

Posted January 20th at 2:02 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Matt about where is this disturbance to the west of us?I'm trying to find it on water vapor but I can't pick it out.

Posted January 20th at 2:07 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: There is not a significant signature in the winds right now to our west to indicate that this thing makes any major moves. I guess we'll have to wait and see. But right now it's just everyone feeding Ontario with no big movement.

Posted January 20th at 2:14 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

I am so glad the snow is staying in the North. You guys in the Tug can keep it for now!! Its too cold to go out and way to windy to snowplow that fluffy stuff!!

Posted January 20th at 2:15 PM
randy vitullo:

About four inches of new snow in Holland Patent since last night. The skiing was great with the new powder. Surprisingly, two hours of skiing from around 10 till noon didn't feel cold at all. Awesome!!! Bring it on (tonight)!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted January 20th at 2:21 PM
wayne (Marcy):

Here's better view of the Ontario radar showing the flow Matt was talking about http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKR

Posted January 20th at 2:23 PM
Becky West Leyden):

The snowrate is moderate to heavy one to two inches an hour.

Matt.... It looks like the NAM is showing the band moving into Central Oneida and maybe southern Onidea later tonight. do you think The NWS will issue an advisory for southern Oneida?

Posted January 20th at 2:46 PM
Matt Lanza:

Becky: No idea on that. My guess is unless they see it going, they won't. Which in this instance is fine. This is a very tough forecast, as we learned this morning.

Posted January 20th at 2:48 PM
ken:

well no excitement here in east utica and i dont plan there will be.so lets watch some football,new england and green bay will be in superbowl.enjoy games and with any luck maybe some snow will come this way soon.i hope.

Posted January 20th at 3:01 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Matt, like you said in entry 178 does the NW and WNW off the other lakes to the west mean our snow will go NW or WNW, I mean we have only gotten 7 inches from this! and at the live at 9 news Jill said that the snowfall maps would be updated at 6, does she mean less snow or different spots to see the snow

Posted January 20th at 3:27 PM
LIsa(oriskany):

No snow here since this morning.. same 2 inches are on the ground that we got last night.. Hopefully the snow stays north enough that it does not cause travel problems in the morning..

Posted January 20th at 3:29 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: Your backyard's forecast verified close to what we expected. Our snow maps so far have only gone out to 7 PM this evening, so Jill will re-assess and go with a brand new one later.

Posted January 20th at 3:32 PM
Matt (HP):

Seems like the band has shifted south a little bit over the lake, maybe just waivering a little bit but im hoping its moving south.

Posted January 20th at 3:34 PM
Matt(Marcy):

thanks Matt but how far south, if the band moves south, do you think it will go could I, in Marcy, be seeing a 6-8 hour period of moderate to heavy snow bringing the total to over a foot

Posted January 20th at 3:38 PM
Jill Reale:

I just returned from my power nap. It beautiful outside in Utica, with sunny skies. What a difference 40 miles to the north makes, where is it snowing heavy. As Matt said, I am going to go through some data and models and make a snowfall map for tonight into tomorrow morning.

Posted January 20th at 3:40 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Jill I think that you should use whatever model gives Marcy 25 inches hahahaha

Posted January 20th at 3:44 PM
Jill Reale:

How much money will you pay me? :)

Posted January 20th at 3:46 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

The band has remained fairly steady with 1/2 mi. waving to the north/south. Some heavy snows from the South Lewis cam up in Turin.

Storm Total as of 2:30pm, 3". Currently falling at 2"/hr

Posted January 20th at 3:49 PM
Becky West Leyden:

I talk to my sister in Mexico. She said, because of the wind it was hard to tell. But she thinks there is 24 to 30 inches on the ground. Also I 81 North and South from Parish to Mansville is closed because of whiteouts.

Posted January 20th at 3:50 PM
Becky (West Leyen):

Thats Mannville

Posted January 20th at 3:57 PM
ken:

snow advisories out for southern oneida counties from 9pm to 10am tomorrow.3to 5 inhes expected primarily north of thruway which means i get missed again here in east utica.but never know.

Posted January 20th at 3:58 PM
ken:

that is lake effect snow advisory for southern oneida,i sais snow advisory.

Posted January 20th at 4:00 PM
Jill Reale:

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
2 products issued by NWS for: Rome NY
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lake Effect Snow Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
339 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2008

...SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION...

.ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS FRIGID
AIR MASS CROSSES THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO...BANDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.

NYZ018-036-037-210445-
/O.NEW.KBGM.LE.Y.0003.080121T0200Z-080121T1500Z/
ONONDAGA-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
339 PM EST SUN JAN 20 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST MONDAY.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TO BE NEAR THE ADVISORY AREA. WHILE THE HEAVIEST OF THE
SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF AREA...THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE LAKE
BAND WILL DROP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED. THE BAND WILL MOVE NORTH
AND OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS, BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7 INCHES IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD IN MOST
AREAS. THOSE WHO MUST TRAVEL IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD SET
ASIDE EXTRA DRIVING TIME TO REACH THEIR DESTINATIONS

Posted January 20th at 4:00 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Snowfall is has picked up. I would say the Rate is Three to four inch per hour at this time. visibility is less than 100 feet.

Posted January 20th at 4:03 PM
Matt(Marcy):

uhhhhhh would 50 be enough haha but that band looks like the intensification is going to get better over the night-time hours

Posted January 20th at 4:20 PM
Matt Lanza:

For those of you awaiting the Giants game... currently 0 in Green Bay with a wind chill of -17. I saw this morning that Eli was making his fiancee sit in the stands rather than in a luxury box...motivation perhaps?

Posted January 20th at 4:29 PM
Matt (HP):

I wouldnt make my fiancee sit in the stands when its 0 degrees, sounds like a punishment to me? Maybe she took GB in an office pool. :-)

Posted January 20th at 4:41 PM
kelly:

So you all don't think the valley will get any of this snow just wondering thank you.

Posted January 20th at 4:46 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The City of Fulton is under a snow emergency

Posted January 20th at 4:50 PM
Matt(Marcy):

kelly look at entry 200 the valley is under an advisory

Posted January 20th at 4:50 PM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Looks like the band is going to set up right along the thruway

Posted January 20th at 5:03 PM
Jill Reale:

New snowfall map is up on the main weather page.

Posted January 20th at 5:04 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Justin we got a good shot at this.I don't think the dry will overcome this band now...it's too intense.If we can get on the southern fringe of this thing we could do very well.

Posted January 20th at 5:06 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

models are showing the snow getting into utica tonight, and i believe it will. with such high snow ratios i beleieve there will be the CHANCE of 6 inches in utica with possibly much more in rome. the band looks much more organized, and it extends further inland tonight than last night. the band SHOULD move near the valley around midnight and possibly sit over the valley through 6-8 am?

Posted January 20th at 5:07 PM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Rob, yea it is pretty intense now lets hope it stays this intense once it reaches us.

Posted January 20th at 5:08 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, two questions, if u have time. 1) on tuesday the WRF model seems to be hinting at some atlantic moisture surging NE across PA to areas just east of BGM, could this area of enhanced snowfall hit BGM? and 2) the 18z WRF is showing good NW LES signature for wed night into thursday, could BGM get rocked form these bands?

Posted January 20th at 5:09 PM
ken:

mike or rob that is north of thruway right,no chance of anything on south of thruway in utica?

Posted January 20th at 5:11 PM
Tony CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

Well I just got back from driving the daughter to Watertown and back. On the way up around West Leyden got bad but not to bad. On the way home starting on 26 south out of Lowville, WOW! Lucky if you could see 100ft. in front of you. 20mph for miles. Very heavy snow till around West Turin. Very exciting trip pictures too :-)

Posted January 20th at 5:13 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Check out Oswego cam...You can just barely make out the street lights!

Posted January 20th at 5:14 PM
Jill Reale:

Best bet for snow this evening and overnight will be north of the Thurway. Utica may see a few inches.

Posted January 20th at 5:15 PM
Justin (Little Falls):

According to some Syracuse news outlets, I-81 is closed north and south, exit 33 to 39. Also, not to bring in other forecasts sites, but intellicast.com radar shows the band quite well, extending into Hamilton County. Also the loop shows a distinct jog toward the south in the past hour.

Posted January 20th at 5:19 PM
Jill Reale:

The band quickly moved into Northern Oneida county with moderate to heavy sno falling, especially in northwestern parts of the county.

Posted January 20th at 5:47 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

whitesboro and just south of the thruway should get at least a few inches tonight. sharp cutoff to almost nothing probably 10 miles south of utica. with probably 3-6 in the city itself. with 6-12+ near rome tonight and points North and west into parts of southern lewis county. oswego county will probably be the big winner with this one.

Posted January 20th at 5:51 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: I honestly haven't looked at anything in the extended, so I can't answer that for you right now. I'll start later tonight or (obviously) tomorrow looking beyond Tuesday morning.

Posted January 20th at 5:54 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

ok sounds good matt.

Posted January 20th at 6:01 PM
Jan:

Snowing so hard near Stokes School on Turin Rd in Rome that visibility on the road is less than 50 ft.

Posted January 20th at 6:12 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

So far, We have picked up 12 inches of snow. It is still snowing hard. the Visibility is near zero. There are many cars off the road between West Leyden and Constableville.

Posted January 20th at 6:34 PM
heather (german flatts):

still nothing here not a flake but temp dropped to 18 degrees and wind still blowing if you gotta go out dress warm its cold. travel on thruway moving right along must be people want to get home or to their destinations soon. sanders have been up and down salting roads and on thruway too.

Posted January 20th at 6:35 PM
heather(german flatts):

one more note the www.weather.gov has herkimer county listed for advisory till 1pm tom..

Posted January 20th at 6:40 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

It's been snowing lightly here and also very windy.

Posted January 20th at 7:17 PM
Gary (Schuyler):

Rob, The band looks poised to hit us by looking at radar right now, and very light snow here too in Schuyler. I still think the dry factor is coming into play.

Posted January 20th at 7:19 PM
Scott (Holland Patent):

Snowing hard in HP right now. Took the garbage out to the end of the driveway. I regret doing so now. Both wind and snow is blowing hard. Not to mention it is extremely cold out. Oh yeah, visibility was about 40 yards.

Posted January 20th at 7:37 PM
heather (german flatts):

still not a flurry in sight of 5s but golly its nippy.

Posted January 20th at 7:57 PM
Oneida County Resident:

Mike M - Go take your college classes and then come back and make your forecast predictions. You live 70 miles away from an area where 10 miles makes all the difference in the world! We might as well watch the Binghamton TV stations to get out forecast as well as you.

Posted January 20th at 8:03 PM
ken:

mike,i thank you for doing a great job updating us and you will be a great meteorologist.i always look forward to what you think so please keep the updates coming.

Posted January 20th at 8:15 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

It seems like the lighter the snow gets on radar,the heavier the snow gets here.I think the layers are starting to finally moisten up.

Posted January 20th at 8:16 PM
Matt:

Well then Im not sure I followed that comment too well but hey I can ask them what they meant cause they weren't considerate enough to use their actual name.

Posted January 20th at 8:17 PM
Dom-Tech:

Hey (Oneida County Resident)Remember this is a blog, Let Mike M post his thoughts,Without you jumping on him. Go for it mike

Posted January 20th at 8:25 PM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

Hoping for an all night connection to L.Huron......We are getting the whole lake envolved right now with moderate to occasionally heavy snow falling right now. Also very windy here.

Posted January 20th at 8:27 PM
Matt(Marcy):

heavy sno falling barely 50 ft visibility snow all the way over the road about 3 inches deep on route 291 in Marcy I suggest keeping the travel to a minimum up on the hilltops

Posted January 20th at 8:36 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Moderate snow here - 2" since sunset.

Posted January 20th at 8:37 PM
heather (german flatts):

post 231 if you dont like what people say here then dont come posting your thoughts mike is great at answering questions people have as with the wktv crew. when they are busy matt answers questions about how to read charts ect.. and this blog is input and opinion so have a nice night.
anyway some point it will start snowing here although I hope not but it hasnt yet..

Posted January 20th at 8:41 PM
Wayne (Marcy):

What a difference a couple miles can make! I live near the State Police barracks and it's barely snowing here at all. Look'a s if the band is drooping even lower into Madison County and extreme Southern Oneida.

Posted January 20th at 8:45 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Light snow just started falling here. Wasn't sure it would make it this far south! Temp sitting at 12.

Posted January 20th at 8:49 PM
ian(saratoga):

well,-0- snow here in eastern ny of course. anyone have a currebt total/projection for barneveld up towards westernville? I know there are some snow haters around but for us snow lovers this is heaven!
ian

Posted January 20th at 8:50 PM
James (Sauquoit):

Snowing here now. Very windy can't really tell how hard it is coming down because most of the time it is snowing sideways. One thing for sure it is very cold. Wayne: Do you think that Southern Oneida County may see a decent snowfall tonight?

Posted January 20th at 8:52 PM
Matt(Marcy):

anyone who's interested, The News Channel 9 out of Albany shows the lake band real good, it shows it extending down the whole valley

Posted January 20th at 8:56 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Light snow falling here. Wind is blowing/drifting the snow around quite a bit. 2" inches for the day so far.

Posted January 20th at 8:56 PM
Wayne (Marcy):

Well the band has been drifting South for the past few hours, looks like Southern Oneida County may make out pretty good.

Posted January 20th at 8:59 PM
Gary(Vernon Center):

Same as James, whats it looking like for southern oneida, anything decent???

Posted January 20th at 9:00 PM
Matt(Marcy):

snow continues heavily with about 5 inches since 7

Posted January 20th at 9:14 PM
Gary (in Schuyler):

The immediate Utica area proper would be getting some decent snow right now as the band is set up just right (9:15pm). Due to the dryness however, there is only very light snow. NWS radar is correct to show the snow ending basically as it approaches Utica.

Posted January 20th at 9:18 PM
ian (saratoga):

matt,
is LES going to carry into tuesday as well for onieda and lewis counties? I am planning a snowmobile trip for the day this tuesday to either barneveld and head north or just goto central tug hill and ride there. riding/driving in heavy snow is no fun! thanks matt!
ian

Posted January 20th at 9:29 PM
Matt(Marcy):

is it me or is this band almost going NNW

Posted January 20th at 9:30 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Is this a temporary shift??? Thought it was suppossed to stay north of the Thruway and now its venturing its way my way. Just wondering if the Southern shift has ended or if the retreat north is going to happen soon?

Posted January 20th at 9:31 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Jeff based on how much it has moved it should start to retreat but only to about northern Oneida or central oneida

Posted January 20th at 9:58 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

A few good burst of snow here but it has been mainly light.Received 1.5" this evening.Fulton up to 30"!

Posted January 20th at 9:58 PM
Betsi~West Leyden:

Stopped snowing...Whats next on the menu? To good to say that its over,,,IS IT?

Posted January 20th at 9:59 PM
Matt(Marcy):

moderate to Heavy snow continues in Marcy and it has accumulated about 4-6 inches since 7pm

Posted January 20th at 10:01 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Betsi, you might get clipped by the north edge as the band moves north overnight but other than that you could be done but you should just wait until the WKTV news at 11

Posted January 20th at 10:08 PM
Anthony:

Matt, where abouts in Marcy are you? Im on Hayes Road at the top of Hayes road (on top of the hill) its been snowing hard but the wind has been nasty and I can't get a good measurement.

Posted January 20th at 10:17 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Im on Hayes about 200 yd from the train tracks

Posted January 20th at 10:19 PM
Matt Lanza:

If you are south of the Thruway and receiving snow, I would not worry too much. I've been running back and forth between quarters checking radar, and we're seeing the band reorganize a bit. This should continue "status quo" for a bit, with a slow drift back to the north. It's obvious now that the big winners will be in Oswego County. Someone may push 60" by morning there. I think Jill's map nailed the southern push of this thing (the Tr-3" zone). Central (particularly western) and northern Oneida should be back in the game overnight. If we can establish a Huron connection, look out.

Posted January 20th at 10:21 PM
Matt(Marcy):

snow has let up and i dont know why

Posted January 20th at 10:21 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

oneida county resident, i forecast based on what i see on the models, and lake effect is the most difficult weather to forecast, so im bound to be wrong, ill admit it. you should look at wktvs forecast, not my. i only forecast for fun, because like you said i dont have a college degree, yet.

Posted January 20th at 10:27 PM
Gary(Vernon Center):

Sorry to be off topic but............
!!!!!!!!!GIANTS #1#1#1#1!!!!!!!!!!!!!:):):):):):)

Posted January 20th at 10:27 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

utica, seems to be an anti snow magnet. as the band has pushed south now, it extends inland more. maybe utica can get some snow when it drifts back north?

Posted January 20th at 10:29 PM
heather(german flatts):

still no snow here thruway travel normal 5s too. I kinda want some snow so hopefully it will warm up a bit its cold.

Posted January 20th at 10:31 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

gary...yea giants!!!!! you cant blame the kicker for the first miss, remember it is -4 degrees out there!!!

Posted January 20th at 10:31 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: I doubt Utica sees much more snow tonight. I have a feeling this is just going to flat out re-orient itself up north. Fulton's at 36" now. They will push 50-60 by morning.

Posted January 20th at 10:32 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Hey Matt or Jill are you just gonna leave us to do the blogging ourselves i dont mean to be mean or a nag but could we get some professional help over here

Posted January 20th at 10:32 PM
Matt(Marcy):

YAY MATT'S BACK

Posted January 20th at 10:33 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: The blog is a great tool, and we use it as much as we can to receive and deliver information. There are going to be times that no one can get to the blog. Jill's at work, and sometimes things come up. I am not even at work. I'm sitting at home, so I don't even need to be here! So please be patient. We're not purposely ignoring anyone. If we're not active in the blog, there's a reason for it, and you got a post from me 10 minutes before you commented.

Posted January 20th at 10:35 PM
MikeD(S.Utica):

Mike M Keep up the good work. In four years, you can take over for Lanza. His 20 YEAR indentured servant contract with WKTV will FINALLY be over so he can move on to greener pastures(bigger market)-lol.Oh,one more thing-let's go Pats! This morning it was Let's go PACK!

Posted January 20th at 10:36 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Matt if we get a Huron connection could us in Marcy and Deerfield see an amount over 15 inches

Posted January 20th at 10:36 PM
Matt(Marcy):

yea i no my computer only lets you update the entries if you send a entry or hit the back button then the forward button

Posted January 20th at 10:39 PM
Matt Lanza:

MikeD: 20 years!? I'm no Bill Worden. ;)

Matt: I don't know honestly. It all depends on where the thing sets up. Since Jill's got you pegged for 3-7, I would say no. But with LES, the "isolated higher amounts" rule comes into play, so we'll see.

Posted January 20th at 10:40 PM
Gary (Vernon Center):

Mike M...AMEN...they played a good game now lets just hope for a repeat in arizona!!! Last matchup was sooo close,lost by 3 after a tremendous game. better then most can say!! As for mike d... good luck.

Posted January 20th at 10:43 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

mike D, lol. yea i agree matt, this band is not looking so good any more, there are signs it will shift north again soon(looking at buffalos radar out over ontario) but like you said it will probably jump north. i forgot how hard it is to get heavy LES into the valley, it must be downsloping or something?

Posted January 20th at 10:44 PM
MikeD:

Matt, Just kidding about the 20 year deal. Figured the company has a little more leverage than you do come contract time for a new employee-more or less out of college. Anyway, my brother and I were talking one night and he said "I'm surprised this guy(you) hasn't moved on yet b/c he is very good and I said I believe they are under contract....

Posted January 20th at 10:46 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Mike D or Mike M or Matt or everyone else I think that this band needs Tylenol or Robitussin hahahaha but I think that once it moves back north and settles it should reorganize and CRANK BACK UP

Posted January 20th at 10:52 PM
mike m (binghamton):

gary, yea they deffinetly have a decent chance, in the superbowel it all comes down to luck and not folding under pressure.

Posted January 20th at 10:53 PM
Mike(leonardsville):

45-13 NE, Giants will not have a chance with a well prepared NE team. Think of this as the Redsox sweeping the Colorado Rockies in the WS last year.

Posted January 20th at 10:55 PM
Jill Reale:

Sorry that I have been away from the blog, I had to do various things to prepare for the 11pm. As for the snow, band has weaken throughout most the viewing area, so no new changes with the snowfall map. The band will shift to the North overnight.

Posted January 20th at 10:57 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

if i had to take a stab at it, i would say the band redevelops just(5 miles) north of utica sometime around midnight, and sits in that area for a while at least. how heavy will it be, idk lol.Utica may be brused by the southern extent of the band, this is just my guess. based on the wrf models.

Posted January 20th at 10:58 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

This is probably the best flow you get get for the area.I don't think it was dry air effecting us.In my opinion it's just the same ol thing where it just doesn't want to push the heavier snow inland.This band is still intensifying in S. Oswego county.Snowfall rates look like 4-5" per hour now.My uncle in Fulton said he couldn't even see his car in his own driveway.

Posted January 20th at 11:02 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

rob, i think it downsloping or something; in LES there are just those same spots that get nailed every time almost independent of the exact wind flow(northern oneida, tug hill) and there are those spots that almost never get nailed no matter the wind direction( mohawk valley) id have to same with some certainty it is terrain related(downsloping).

Posted January 20th at 11:06 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

i feel really bad for you snow lovers in around utica, 30 miles or so away is just getting pounded with snow :(

Posted January 20th at 11:07 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Were getting pretty close now to an upper lakes connection.I can only imagine what would happen if that occurs.

Posted January 20th at 11:08 PM
randy Vitullo:

Jill, you mentioned that the band has weakened on the 11 o'clock news. I am not sure if you are basing that on the radar or from some other data, but in Holland Patent it is snowing heavily. The LES band seems very intense here in Holland Patent even though the radar shows nothing for here. The past two hours has been moderate to now, very heavy snow.

Posted January 20th at 11:15 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

Rob, that would be sweet!! here is a visual on where i think the band may eventually reform over the next few hrs. http://image50.webshots.com/750/1/10/85/2521110850099650872YZRwjA_ph.jpg

Posted January 20th at 11:15 PM
stevo (rome):

its snowing moderately here in rome as well! it has been for several hours. with a few heavy bursts here and there. GO GIANTS!!!!

Posted January 20th at 11:21 PM
Gary (Vernon Center):

Mike M... so acording to your map southern oneida still has a chance???(:!!!!!GO GIANTS!!!!!:)

Posted January 20th at 11:24 PM
Jill Reale:

Randy, I met the band down in Madison County, sorry I should have been more clear...its been a long weekend. The band will probably intensify even more north of Utica tonight.

Posted January 20th at 11:24 PM
Jill Reale:

And by met, I mean meant.

Posted January 20th at 11:25 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Mike what radar did you take that image from?I had mine zoomed in for specifically Oswego and Onedia.That radar seems to be showing heavy snow in Onondaga and Madison.

Posted January 20th at 11:26 PM
Gary(Vernon Center):

In addition to my last... it is snowing the heaviest of the day so far here.

Posted January 20th at 11:30 PM
Jill Reale:

Well I am off to go home and to bed. Adam will be in in a few hours to take over. Have a good night and don't go out if you don't need to. Stay warm.

Posted January 20th at 11:32 PM
Dean (schuyler hill):

5.0" this morning. Adding on to the total tonight benefiting from orographic effects as radar return is minimal in southern herk. county. Maybe double digit snow total by morning here.

Posted January 20th at 11:53 PM
mike m( binghamton):

Rob, it is from intellicast.com, the nexrad, bgms.

Posted January 20th at 11:57 PM
ken:

the only chance for me to get significant snow would be from a coastal storm if even that gives us a direct hit.any indications in long range forcast for that?

Posted January 20th at 11:57 PM
Matt(HP):

The upper great lakes are starting to kick off some more, I think the connection to Georgian Bay may set up pretty easily.

Posted January 20th at 11:59 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

Gary, i would say mainly just North of utica has the best chance at seeing heavy snow, but you never know. appartly as many people have stated above, radar is not doing justice to this band, so therefore it is very hard to forecast anything.

Posted January 21st at 12:00 AM
mike m (binghamton):

direct linhk to that radar....
http://intellicast.com/National/Nexrad/BaseReflectivity.aspx?location=USNY0850&animate=true

Posted January 21st at 12:04 AM
Dean (schuyler hill):

Mike M. good luck at SUNY Oswego. You will have a great time I'm sure. I graduated with Jill this Spring from Albany with a BS in Atmos. Science. A lot of work, but very interesting field. Best of luck to you and can't wait to see the final snow tallies from oswego county. Should be impressive!

Posted January 21st at 12:07 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

It has been quiet up for a few hours, however the Band should return to Northern Onedia and parts of Southern Lewis in three or four hours. We picked up a total of 14 inches today, it looks like we could see the same tomorrow.

Posted January 21st at 12:09 AM
mike m(binghamton):

thanks dean, i wish i was there tonight!! Ken, there looks to be some shots at coastal storms starting around the 30th, unfortunetly it looks like there is the chance of rain or snow. its way too early for specifics, but i would guess this time period is our next chance at a coastal storm.

Posted January 21st at 12:10 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

beckey, how much has that snow compacted? just curious.

Posted January 21st at 12:12 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

snow band starting to make its shift toward utica.

Posted January 21st at 12:17 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

10 degrees here with very light snow falling. Just about 20 minutes ago we had a burst of moderate to heavy snow move through with reduced visibilities. Picked up 2.25" inches here so far. I agree that radar is not doing justice as it is snowing here albeit lightly, but it is not showing up on NWS radar. Roads are snow covered and slick up here as blowing and drifting snow is keeping the roads covered.

Posted January 21st at 12:21 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Mike m....It has compacted about an inch and a half. When I did the water content earlier this afternoon the ratio was around 28 to 1. Because this snow so fluffy it should compact quite a bit.

Posted January 21st at 12:23 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Still haven't established a connection yet.Everytime I think this band is going to move north it comes back south.Looks like it's weakening slightly and spreading out a little more.Officially there is 29" at Fulton as of 11PM.I'm sure there are higher amounts than that across the city.

Posted January 21st at 12:48 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

It's been snowing hard here for quite awhile.We've had a 290 flow for exactly 8 hours now.Only 2.5" so far since this evening.

Posted January 21st at 2:30 AM
Gary (from Schuyler) at work in Syracuse:

For anybody traveling westward this morning, as of 6:30 this morning, the trek into Syracuse had snow up to just about Verona on the thruway, then nothing. Syracuse (a couple miles west of the airport) has green grass although dark clouds are visible to the north.

Posted January 21st at 7:10 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Snow has ended here.The sun is trying to poke through.Ended up with 4.0" here.LES storm total is 5.0"

Posted January 21st at 9:14 AM
Lisa:

Working in Utica, snow has stopped, looking brighter like the sun wants to come out.. Is there anymore snow planned for this area today?? ALSO MATT later this afternoon like around 2-3pm i am heading towards sylvan beach, Do you think weather will be ok by then?

Posted January 21st at 9:37 AM
Matt Lanza:

Snow totals have been updated on wktv.com.

Posted January 21st at 9:43 AM
Matt Lanza:

Lisa: I think you're ok for this afternoon. Models have suggested that the lake snows would lift out today/tonight, so, heading only to Sylvan Beach should be ok.

Posted January 21st at 9:44 AM
Matt(Marcy):

another 8.6 inches in marcy bringing the total to 15.9

Posted January 21st at 9:52 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

The roof collapsed at the DPW in Fulton.Plows can't even get out on the roads.

Posted January 21st at 10:24 AM
Scott (Holland Patent):

+++SUGGESTION+++ Matt, On the weather homepage the snowfall forecast map says "through 7AM Monday" I don't know what the "start time" is for this map. From when through 7AM Monday? Maybe a beginning and ending window of time could be indicated on these maps? Again, only a suggestion.

Posted January 21st at 10:24 AM
Alicia (New HArtford):

Hi Guys! I usually just read the comments, but I have a question. I know the weekend is a long way out at this point, but I'm thinking about doing a weekend get away to Niagara Falls overnight Sat and I was just wondering if there are any signs of major snow events starting to show up on any of the reports?

Posted January 21st at 10:37 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

I just caught a news conference clip and I guess most of the plows were out of the building.4 people escaped without injury.Mayor reports up to 4 feet in portions of the city.
Just had a moderate burst of snow here again.

Posted January 21st at 10:45 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

In West Leyden, as of now we have no new snow to report. We are starting to get a few flurries, however there is now accumulation on the ground. So far, our total snowfall for this LES event is 14 inches.

Posted January 21st at 10:51 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

I talked to some of my family in Oswego County this morning. My Sister in Mexico said she has received 36 inches of snow so far. And my Uncle in Parish said their snow total was about 44 inches.

Posted January 21st at 11:09 AM
ian (saratoga):

hello all,
any reports on total accumulation in the barneveld/steuben area?
thank you!

Posted January 21st at 12:06 PM
Becky ( West Leyden):

Ian... I have not seen any reports from around there.

It looks like WKTV's in house models did very well during this event.

Posted January 21st at 1:10 PM
mike m(binghamton):

i am actually very pleased with my snowfall map, if you take a look i was actualy very close in all areas except over toward Dolgelville and stratford, i though the band would at some point in time reach that far east, but it didnt. so here is the map i made saturday... http://image60.webshots.com/660/4/52/15/2090452150099650872vKMLKy_fs.jpg

Posted January 21st at 1:18 PM
Andy Forestport:

From Barneveld up to Forestport we recieved a wopping 1-3 inches

Posted January 21st at 2:24 PM
Jeff:

Anything in the near future we need to keep our eyes on, or will the weather pattern be relatively quiet?

Posted January 21st at 2:35 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Jeff... The Tughill could get more LES Wednesday night into Thursday, other than that I don't think there is much going on.

Posted January 21st at 3:33 PM
Alby:

Hey Mike M your 1-3 line was waaayyyyyyy off to the south.

Posted January 21st at 3:37 PM
Jeff:

Becky, Thank you.

Posted January 21st at 3:49 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I'm curious on what the total was in N. Cayuga.I think the Fair Haven area could be the jackpot out of everyone.Haven't seen any updated reports from there though.

Posted January 21st at 3:49 PM
Jeff:

We need a good old-fashioned NE to hit us

Posted January 21st at 3:51 PM
James (Sauquoit):

Agreed, this winter is turning out to be somewhat boring. Only got about an inch and a half here.

Posted January 21st at 3:57 PM
Matt Lanza:

Couple things to point out.

LES is done in our viewing area. Just wasn't an event east of about a Rome to West Leyden line (although we did see some decent reports from Poland, Marcy and even in Deerfield). Temperatures will moderate a bit over the next 24 hours (although tonight we should see a VERY quick drop in many spots into the single digits). Then widespread light snow tomorrow should add up to an inch (or two if you're lucky). Colder air will run back in tomorrow night and the lakes will begin to get active again. At this point, I think the Tug/North Country will be the target early on. Then, as even colder air than what we're just coming out of now digs in on Wednesday night and Thursday, we'll see that lake band push through, and everyone should see at least some snow from this. Thursday and Thursday night will be nasty cold. Then temps begin the haul upward through the weekend, to the point where I'm forced to include some rain on Sunday and Monday, mixing with the snow. Beyond that, we'll see what happens. I'll discuss that more later. But it's not too exciting.

Posted January 21st at 4:02 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

Alby, yea i deffinetly had the snowfall area spread out too far(to the south, North, and east) but my bullseye area was right on.

Posted January 21st at 4:15 PM
mike m(binghamton):

matt, do you think we might start to get into a pattern more favorable for coastal storms around feb 1st?

Posted January 21st at 4:16 PM
Jeff:

I like the snow like everyone else but at this point in the season (somewhat dispointing)its just very frustrating bring on SPRING!
Matt, sometimes it's hard to make out the text, that you need to put in the box to add a comment

Posted January 21st at 4:38 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

looks like some more decent LES wednesday through thursaday night, maybe into friday morning. winds should vary quite abit, starting west then eventually ending up NNW i beleive, matt what are your thoughts on this lake effect?

Posted January 21st at 5:47 PM
ken(utica):

mike,looks like another up north event.i doubt anything down this way.

Posted January 21st at 5:58 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Touched on that in 334. That's the bottom line...north, drifts south, then wobbles north, then crashes south. Heaviest snow will be N & W of Utica, with at least minor accumulations likely S of Utica.

Posted January 21st at 6:01 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, so as it crashes south could the finger lakes get going?

Posted January 21st at 7:17 PM
Matt Lanza:

Finishing up the forecast discussion, and then we'll get down to business with a new entry.

Posted January 21st at 7:34 PM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Matt, how is the LE for Tuesday Night? Do you think we will have the same problem we did with the last event with dry air moving in and not extending the band very far inland such as reaching old forge? Would love to have them get more than 2 inches this time around!

Posted January 21st at 8:45 PM
Matt Lanza:

New entry is up. I got sidetracked, and you'll see why.

Posted January 21st at 8:54 PM

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