Weather Blog | Lake Effect, Lunar Eclipses, Low Pressure, Oh My!

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Lots to get to tonight. It's not that there's so much going on in the weather department, but it's a lot of little things.

Climo Update

We hit 51 degrees this morning, falling well short of the record of 57 degrees. Nevertheless, it was 19 degrees above normal. Believe it or not, this was our first 50 degree day since we hit 60 on January 9th. Precip-wise, we're up to 3.85", which is only about 3/4" short of cracking the top 10 for wettest Februaries. Snowfall wise, we're at 15.2" for the month, which is actually about 3" more than we typically receive in the first 18 days of February. We're less than 6" below normal for the season. We're running about 4 degrees above normal for the month.

Squalls Tomorrow?

The Arctic cold front, ushering in some much colder air, will arrive toward tomorrow morning. With some upper level energy to work off of, I could see there being a few squalls tomorrow. I doubt it'll be anything like we saw last weekend, but we could see some whitening back up of the ground across the region. But judging by what is occurring to our west (a lot of convective type squalls), we'll have to keep an eye on this. Otherwise, just flurries or a few snow showers seem plausble for tomorrow, with up to an inch possible, but most places seeing a dusting at most.

Lake Effect: North Country Jackpot

Checking on the LES situation for tomorrow night and Wednesday...it appears that Lake Ontario is going to be active. Moderate to extreme instability should develop. The only issue is...winds are going to remain due west or even west-southwest through late tomorrow night. This will keep most of, if not all of the lake snows bottled up north, toward Central Lewis County. At times, the southern fringe of the band may extend as far south as Turin, the Oneida/Lewis line and Old Forge, but I think the "best" action will be further north.

I would not rule out a secondary band developing along the Oswego County shoreline and extending into Northern Oneida or northern Herkimer Counties though. This would likely not have the intensity of the main band further north, but could still dump a few inches of snow.

The other wild card is Lake Erie. Satellite pictures from a couple days ago suggested that most of the lake was ice covered. Remember, you can still get lake snow from an ice covered lake...it just reduces the amount of moisture that it can generate significantly. That said, some of our models have hinted at a Lake Erie band extending well inland toward the Route 20 corridor of southern Oneida, Madison and southern Herkimer Counties. I'm not ruling this out. But this is very much a wait and see situation.

The lake snows will likely come further south, toward the Mohawk Valley or even points south, once a disturbance swings through on Wednesday. Wednesday night could feature a little accumulating LES for some folks. This isn't exactly great news....

Total Lunar Eclipse!

....Because Wednesday night is our last chance to observe a total lunar eclipse until December 2010! For a great read up on the eclipse, check out Sky and Telescope magazine's page on it. Another look can be found at NASA's page.

I've attached a graphical representation of the timing here in CNY. We need clear skies though to be able to see this occur. And I think some of us will get that...and others may not. We'll keep an eye on this in depth over the next couple days and post more as we know more.

Friday System

After hopefully a nice, sun filled Thursday, after some morning flurries, another storm system is going to creep up the East Coast. Looking at this morning's model runs, the Euro scores a big hit for us, the GFS a modest one and the Canadian no hit.

Here's the issue. The Euro brings a well developed storm up the coast and just off to our east...close enough to maybe mix us with some sleet, but likely keep it mainly snow. The GFS is a less developed storm, but more of an overrunning event...where warm air tries to flood in, and as it does so, it creates precipitation. Again, a mostly/all snow event. The Canadian is in the same camp as the GFS, except it slants the storm off the coast and out to sea and prevents any of that overrunning moisture to work into New England or Upstate NY. If I had to place bets, I would lean on the GFS/Canadian idea right now. But...given how this winter has gone, I wouldn't be surprised to see this solution trend toward a stronger storm, closer to the coast and potentially forcing us to mix with sleet or freezing rain at the height of it. It's a precarious situation right now because a lot could happen, so stay tuned.

After a bit of a warm up early next week, I see the potential for another storm in the middle of next week, that would likely be an ice/rain to rain to snow situation. Then, it's back to another dose of some winter. We'll see how things go, but for this week, our main focus is Wednesday night's LES situation, Friday's storm and the lunar eclipse. Stay tuned!

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Matt HP:

Thanks Matt :-)

Posted February 18th at 8:49 PM
Ryan Utica:

Lanza your the best, keep up the good work, pray for snow!!!

Posted February 18th at 8:56 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

i suspect there will be some intense squalls later tonight and tomorrow, proabbly not dropping anymore than 2 inches in anyone location(maybe 3-4 inches in highest elevations of cortland county) fridays storm is starting to become much more interesting, we could be in for a good 4-8+ inch snowfall, as even the 18z gfs is coming around now, lets hope the 00z gfs is good too!!!

Posted February 18th at 9:25 PM
Matt HP:

Mike considering how things are going why dont we just look at that friday storm as a guaranteed sleet and ice storm with maybe a trace of snow :-P we dont wanna get our hopes up again considering the models love snow until 6 hours before the storm gets here.

Posted February 18th at 9:33 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

agreed matt, fridays storm will be ice, it will be ice; lets just keep telling ourselves that so we dont get disappointed lol ,and if a miracle happens and it is snow we will be really excited lol

Posted February 18th at 9:46 PM
randy Vitullo:

Great job again Matt. The models are fickle.................................Hopefully you will be dead on so as not to arouse the critics.... I am hoping for the 4 to 8 inch solution on Friday.

Posted February 18th at 9:46 PM
Matt Lanza:

Looks like some of those squalls from earlier today have survived the trip across NY and will move through Chenango, Otsego and Delaware Counties here over the next couple hours.

Posted February 18th at 10:08 PM
vinny:

fridays storm may look ok now but it will be one of those storms that start with snow and sleet,then transition to fr rain.a trace to 2 inches.does that about sound right.i am also trying to use reverse pyshcology.lol.that being said we will get one huge storm.i dont know when but we are due to get hit!

Posted February 18th at 11:07 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

00z gfs keeps it all snow, but rather light amounts now. however,this is only one model run.

Posted February 18th at 11:11 PM
Matt Lanza:

00Z GFS does indeed show a wimper of a storm...but there is an awful lot of moisture in the south which keeps me a bit on the nervous side because we're 4 days out and it won't take much. Definitely need to keep an eye on it.

Posted February 18th at 11:16 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

84.66" inches of snow for the season here as of 2/18/2008. Just had a chance to add up the numbers this evening. Still have plenty of snow up this way even with the rain. We have around a foot of snow on the ground, except much more where drifting has occured which is everywhere up this area. I am counting on sleet and freezing rain for the Friday storm, since the models are saying snow right now (just like they did every other storm), so lets just bet on ice. It has been ice 9.99 times out of ten this winter, so why break the pattern. I have ice 2" inches thick still on my driveway! I'll take 60 degrees over this terrible ice. It just gets sickening after a while having to chop, chop, and still chop and then when you get it all cleaned off, another ice storm comes along. Wish it would just PLAIN SNOW!

Posted February 19th at 1:23 AM
Matt HP:

MIKE ....ICE dont do that to yourself.. Stop using the "S" word. It was kinda like snowdays in school. We mentioned them and they never happenend!

Posted February 19th at 2:47 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, my school has had 4 snowdays so far, not bad for a "mild" winter

Posted February 19th at 3:31 AM
randy Vitullo:

We have had only two snowdays in the Utica City School District. Saving the other two for March........In like a Lion, Out like a lion....that was several years ago; in like a lion, out like a lamb.

Posted February 19th at 6:29 AM
Barb East Winfield:

We are getting a burst of snow. So far big flakes and a quick 1/2 to 3/4 inch of snow. The roads are now snow covered. I just heard the snow plow and then another one spreading sand on the road. My driveway is a skating rink, and I'm on a slight incline, so all I have to do is slide into the road! Right now I prefer good old snow!

Posted February 19th at 7:30 AM
Sarah:

Any idea when we will know a little more about this "storm?" We need to travel to Poconos this weekend for a wedding. Should I be thinking we need to travel Thursday instead of Friday? I know how fickle storms have been this year...thanks for any thoughts you may have.
Sarah

Posted February 19th at 8:56 AM
Donna (in Alder Creek):

I too will be traveling on Friday to Long Lake for an event. Will the storm be this far north (Old Forge, Blue Mtn, Long Lake)? Or is this just a valley storm?

Posted February 19th at 9:08 AM
Matt Lanza:

Donna/Sarah: We'll know more each evening this week. Keep checking back in...you'll definitely see the latest.

Posted February 19th at 10:12 AM
Gary(Vernon):

Weather.com is calling for 2-4" tonight and 2-4" tomarrow for here.Why so "generous"?

Posted February 19th at 10:37 AM
Matt Lanza:

Gary: We can't explain why other forecast outlets forecast what they do. I will say this...from a completely objective standpoint...mass sites like weather.com do a horrific job forecast for our area, so I would honestly stick to our forecast...or if you want a second opinion check the NWS. But the best forecast for CNY will come from us.

Posted February 19th at 10:44 AM
Andy (Forestport):

Is Fridays storm another Grab-Bag of precipitation?

Posted February 19th at 10:58 AM
Matt Lanza:

Andy: Unless this thing shifts drastically north..it's straight snow...and light snow at that. Latest GFS indicating a light event...almost a "flizzard" (significant amount of flurries).

Posted February 19th at 11:08 AM
Gary(Vernon):

Thanks Matt, I'll stick with wktv then. Although the snow would be nice. Have not been able to put to many miles on the sled locally.

Posted February 19th at 11:14 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Seems like the models are trying to phase the jets but just not enough yet for a big storm.Barnes Corners started the day with 26" so we'll see how much they end up with total.Actually now it looks like the band might even get into a good chunk of N. Oneida.Just some flurries here so far this morning.

Posted February 19th at 11:15 AM
Gary (Schuyler) at work in Syracuse:

Just spent a couple days in Gananoque/Kingston, ON. On the way down via T. 12 to Utica yesterday, generally a foot to 2 ft of snow most of the way. Even went by way of Barnes Corners on Rt.177, not nearly as much snow as usually there. Typically on this trek the snow thins out north of Watertown, being out of the main LES prone area, but this year about a foot or two of snow even into Ontario. The deepest snow seemed to be in the Alder Creek/Remsen area.

Gananoque never warmed up that much over Sunday and Monday with the warm front. I think they barely made it to 40 while Watertown just 25 or so miles away as the crow flies warmed to 50. Perhaps the air was cooled by the southerly's off of Lake Ontario.

Besides snow banks from snow being plowed off of parking lots, no snow on the ground here in Syracuse, and they had 5 inches of low density LES that fell on Saturday

Posted February 19th at 12:28 PM
Jules (Ilion):

Matt: do you think sunspots have any influence on our weather ...especially when there is active period of them?

Posted February 19th at 12:37 PM
Bill Kardas:

Jules,

Sunspots are cool regions on the sun that appear darker than the surrounding surface. It's been known that sunspot activity usually runs through an 11 year cycle. The idea though is that the higher the number of sunspots, the more intense the solar radiation. The simple answer to your question is yes, but we aren't sure in exactly what way. It's very difficult to apply the variation of solar intensity to the change in weather, mostly because it's complicated and difficult to measure. Ex: A sharp rise in solar raditation may be offset by a volcanic erruption. Good question though.

Posted February 19th at 1:01 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jules: Bill pretty much gave you the answer. There is a lot involving the sun that we just don't know right now. Some have tried to hypothesize that the sun may be the main cause of global warming. It's certainly possible, but again...we don't know. I think the future of research in meteorology is going to be heavily focused on the sun and to some degree the stratosphere, because it too has been hypothesized to influence weather over time (sig. stratospheric warming may be linked to eventual cold snaps). There's much to consider beyond the models and day to day weather... a lot!

Posted February 19th at 1:13 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

once again the models are messing with us. the gfs gives us a flizzard, the NAM looks to be almost nothing, the euro looks like a decent storm, and the latest cmc gives us plenty of precip, but warms us up quite abit at the 850 mb level, sigh.

Posted February 19th at 1:20 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

this lake effect is going to be interesting to watch onthe barnes corners cam, wouldnt be surpised to see them near the 4 foot mark by late tomorrow. that means that penguin will be nearly gone.

Posted February 19th at 3:04 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Intense squall here.Visability about 1/2 mile.

Posted February 19th at 3:40 PM
Matt Lanza:

Arctic front coming through. Temps will drop considerably over the next little while.

Posted February 19th at 3:42 PM
Patty:

WOW village of Herkimer is getting some pretty good snow right now.

Posted February 19th at 4:20 PM
Jodi ~ (Ilion):

Some pretty good snow is falling in Ilion as well=)

Posted February 19th at 4:32 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

snow squall here as well

Posted February 19th at 4:50 PM
Cindy (ilion):

I don't know what is happening anywhere else, but it is snowing SO hard here right now it is unbelievable. I can't even see the street sign across the street from me. I wasn't prepared for this, but WOW what a nice surprise. Where did this come from?????

Posted February 19th at 4:53 PM
Matt Lanza:

Cindy: Post 32 ;) This is basically what we figured would happen today, but honestly, I was not anticipating a squall line like this. Very impressive.

Posted February 19th at 5:13 PM
Cindy:

Posted February 19th at 5:24 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

We ended up with about 2 inches of snow the last 2 days. The upcoming storm should be interesting. I am hoping for a big sn....oh wait, lots of ice!!!! (dont want to jinx it)

Posted February 19th at 5:25 PM
Cindy:

Not sure what happened to my post. MATT just wanted to say I'm not complaining about the snow by any means. I've been busy lastnight and today and just hadn't gotten a chance to see the weather.

Posted February 19th at 5:26 PM
Matt HP:

Is that band across the lake; Lake Effect or is it part of the front pushing south. Just wondering how far south it will push.

Posted February 19th at 5:27 PM
mike m(binghamton):

fridays storm is not looking good as of now; hopefully the models will continue the trend theyve had all winter, and move the storm further NW, so we can get more sn..i mean ice ;)

Posted February 19th at 5:29 PM
Alex(little falls):

Snowing really heavy for about 30min now. picked up about an inch as of now

Posted February 19th at 5:33 PM
Matt Lanza:

Cindy: Don't worry...no need to apologize if you love snow or if you hate it.

Matt: Yes...this is going to be a mean LES band, but (un)fortunately it's going to stay well to our north I think. A secondary band may try and wobble into northern Oneida or even Central Oneida, but...I'm not optimistic for too many big surprises here.

Posted February 19th at 5:34 PM
Matt Lanza:

Also, my snow map is here. Just FYI, I made this in haste this afternoon, so while I like it for our viewing area, I do think the 6-12" area is more like a 12-24". I'll post an updated map soon.

Posted February 19th at 5:41 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, is there decent potential for fles tomorrow night, nws bgm seems to think so?

Posted February 19th at 5:49 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike...I suppose if the winds can shift NNW enough then sure...there will be ample conditions for it otherwise.

Right now I'm watching this lake band sink south and it will be moving into Old Forge shortly. Very heavy snow is likely as this happens. I'm guessing snow rates are a solid 1-3" per hour if not higher. It's only about a 5 mile wide band of tremendously heavy stuff. Turin should get into the act as well shortly. Any reports from the Old Forge/Turin/surrounding areas would be much appreciated tonight.

Posted February 19th at 6:56 PM
Justin (Whitesboro):

Matt, what is the latest on the upcoming storm for friday saturday?

Posted February 19th at 7:03 PM
Matt Lanza:

Justin: Right now, most models are in good agreement that the moisture from this storm is going to come close to our area, but probably not through. In other words, we're likely not going to see heavy snow, but a light to occasional moderate snow is likely Friday, with several inches possible...but likely nothing too significant. The further south you are, the better your chances at something.

Posted February 19th at 7:39 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I don't think we've seen a lake band this intense all year.This thing is cranking!Looks like heavy snow in Buffalo too.

Posted February 19th at 7:45 PM
naomi (smith hill)
http://deerfield:

weather tx-, did I hear some thunder on the hill about 7:00pm tonight ? I wasn't sure if it was thunder or my furnace groaning. It was very odd. I'm looking forward to an opportunity to view the eclipse wed night, are we going to be in an advantagous spot for viewing? does the eclipse have anything to do with the outcome of the fri-sat storm. Any info now on what will transpire? Bill-- do you have any more information on the migration of the Robins you spoke about a few weeks ago after posting the photo of a Robin sitting on a snow drift. You mentioned then that Robins don't fly south for the winter. Can you tell us more about that phenomenon/theory? I wrote to the team on monday about a hugh flock of robins that landed in my backyard mon am. I have never seen anything like it before. Just wondered if it was normal or a weather related fluke? Thanks.

Posted February 19th at 7:46 PM
Matt Lanza:

Naomi: I doubt it...maybe a salt truck went by? But it's quiet here tonight. I am hopeful that the lake bands set up far enough away from us tomorrow night to allow the skies to clear in our area to view the eclipse. If not, it may be worth a trip north and east. I'll be hitting that hard tomorrow on the Live at Five.

As for robins. They don't fly south for winter in most cases. They spend their winters where they breed. They just spend less time in your yard, so when one pops up, people can assume that it's a sign of spring. And actually, the fact that you saw a bunch of them together is rather normal too. In winter, they will either spend more time in shelter or in large groups. They band together (I think we see this with deer too in winter..yarding). Here's a link to a very interesting website that has observers count what birds they see in their backyards. Interestingly enough (and probably obvious), the number of robins you see, correlates to the snow depth (more snow, less birds).

Posted February 19th at 7:57 PM
Matt Lanza:

Doing a little looking at our snow totals this year. 66.2" now for the season (I will eventually get back on the seasonal snow totals page, don't worry). We've only had 11.6" of lake effect snow this winter. So unlike last year when 56% of our snow was courtesy of the Great Lakes, this year, only 17% of our snow so far has been off the lakes! Very impressive to notice. I'm sure that percentage varies in the North Country. But it is quite a change here.

Posted February 19th at 8:32 PM
Matt Lanza:

Trying not to go too technical on anyone here, but one thing that is very interesting is a storm potential for the middle of next week...and the potential that it could be a biggie...unsure if it's rain or snow. But, this far out at least, the European model is forecasting a pattern not too dissimilar from March 1993, which was of course the Superstorm in the East. By no means is this likely at all...but the potential for some sort of important storm is showing up on the models around the middle of next week and it's worth a look. If you want to see how the forecasted 500 mb pattern on the Euro matches up to some other times in the past, go here. Worth keeping an eye over the coming days, so stay tuned.

Posted February 19th at 8:47 PM
Mike(leonardsville):

It will probably become a west runner or go way off the coast. Though that storm does show up on the 18z, I wonder how the 0Z will turn up.

Posted February 19th at 8:51 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike... there's pretty solid agreement that a storm will happen. Like we know..the details are far too uncertain, but...usually when the models get into this kind of agreement, something happens. It wouldn't be an epic storm...but a storm nonetheless.

Posted February 19th at 8:55 PM
Matt Lanza:

Fun to look at the long range, but some heavy snow has moved solidly into Northern Oneida County. Not quite to Boonville, but from Ava west through Westdale/Camden, we're seeing some heavy snowfall. Also, some very heavy snow toward Old Forge still. Again, any totals will be much appreciated from the north.

Posted February 19th at 9:04 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

There should be absoulutely no reason why a lake band this strong can't make it past Rte 12.I still can't figure out why this happens everytime the flow veers to 285 or so.I can see the NE part of the county due to shadowing but this band should be going strong in places like Remsen and Hinckley.

Posted February 19th at 9:59 PM
MJ (Trenton):

Your teling me, very frustrating having that band pointed right at me, like now showing some light blues over me, but no snow.
Getting used to it though. I'm 1/2 mi. w of rt 12. In my opinion, happens quite a bit lately, all year.

Posted February 19th at 10:06 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Just drove back from playing cards in Rome - hit snow right around the Delta Dam - roads are covered but just snowing lightly.

Posted February 19th at 10:16 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Looks like major changes with 00Z NAM for late week.That would drop about 6"+ on us.It would be nice to see that on the other models tonight.

Posted February 19th at 10:20 PM
MJ (Trenton):

Now that radar shows clear, I'm getting light snow, about 20 min. now.

Posted February 19th at 10:24 PM
Matt Lanza:

I'm looking at the Operational NAM and it is an outlier. I've also begun looking at a much improved (allegedly) experimental NAM. And that is well in line with the other models keeping it suppressed. That said, neither is trustworthy right now...but it will be interesting to see if the new NAM is indeed improved or if it's been messed up even more (as if that were possible).

Posted February 19th at 10:27 PM
MJ (Trenton):

Light blues just barely reaching me, but getting light to moderate LES. Have to imagine Camden is getting pounded.

Posted February 19th at 10:42 PM
Matt Lanza:

See for yourself, MJ! It's tough to tell, but I think normally you can see more than is visible at the moment.

Posted February 19th at 10:45 PM
sno-x (westmo):

check out suny oswego's web cam too!!!

Posted February 19th at 11:03 PM
Matt Lanza:

Latest GFS a little lighter on the precip than the Op NAM was...but still would be a solid 1-3/3-6 type of deal. Long way off still.

Posted February 19th at 11:07 PM
Matt HP:

Matt, Not sure if youve noticed but you cant see anything on Camden's Web cam at dark. Its not pointed at fasttrac anymore like it use to be.

Posted February 19th at 11:25 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Lake effect snow is traveling well inland and reaching us here in town, albeit light snow though. I'm guessing we picked up about 1.5" inches so far for the day. I'll have to go out and measure in a bit.

Posted February 19th at 11:29 PM
Matt HP:

This band is really moving into Central Oneida. Atleast north of the thruway. How long is it going to stick around? Also should it be intensifying and moving inland?

Posted February 19th at 11:36 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

wow, so much going on tonight!!! matt,srry i had to go to work earlier, but nws BGM was talking about pretty favorable conditions for fles, including 320-330 flow. but that is a different story, we have to get through tonight still. that LES band is getting close to utica, but as usual not extending inland very far. do u have a snow map up for tonight?

Posted February 19th at 11:45 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

the key to fridays storm ,is how strong the ohio valley low is; we want it to be strong enough to transport ample moisture north; but not so strong it overrides us with warm air. the 00z NAM is almost the perfect solution!!! for snowlovers that is.

Posted February 19th at 11:48 PM
Matt Lanza:

One of the reasons I love (hate) lake effect is because every time you think you've got it nailed down, it does something you don't expect. Take tonight for instance. As I write this, we have a band extending the length of Lake Ontario. But, in the eastern half, it's oriented WNW-ESE...so the band is at times coming close to the Utica area. But over the western half, it's oriented WSW-ENE...which would normally mean the Tug Hill is getting hammered...not so right now. It's almost like there's a 90 degree angle being formed in the center of the lake. Very peculiar, but goes to show you how much LES is dependent on wind. Incredible.

Posted February 20th at 1:13 AM
Matt (CB):

We picked up just over an inch of fresh powder last night as of 5:30 this morning.Temp is at 15 degrees with a slight westerly wind.
I watched the band almost make it here but peter out just to the west.Hard to believe with the winds so strong all night.Can't figure that one out.
Our roads are snow covered and slick here as our plow crew comes out of Herkimer and if it isn't snowing in Herk,they don't think it is here.
Only 30 days till sring.What are the chances of clear skies tonight for the Lunar Eclips?

Posted February 20th at 5:41 AM
MJ (Trenton):

Picked up 3" LES overnight, still falling albeit fairly light at 0600.

Matt in CB, I have the same problem. Plows come from Utica, never the same conditions north of Deerfield Hill that they have down there.

Posted February 20th at 7:25 AM
randy Vitullo:

Of course the system on Tuesday of next week will be larger. Of course that system will bring the mix to rain to possible snow scenario.............. We have a shot at all snow on Friday and it is still not looking to a large one for us.....sigh.. The forecast model shows the lake band shifting south and snowing most of today. The forecast discussion calls for the LES to diminish this morning. Which is correct?

Posted February 20th at 7:41 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Picked up 2.5" with the brief southward migration overnight.

Posted February 20th at 8:10 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Just a dusting here.Pulaski up to 25".

Posted February 20th at 9:28 AM
Jeff (Southern hills):

Bright and Sunny here!! How is the storm looking for Friday???? I havent had a chance to go look at the models. There is a nice cloud bank north of us right now, figuring someone up there is getting some snow!

Posted February 20th at 9:43 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Look at the NAM shows a big stripe through our area (Southern) that shows right about an inch of QPF. What kind of ratio would we be looking at with the cold air in place??

Posted February 20th at 9:48 AM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: The NAM is still an outlier...but I have a feeling the GFS may come around toward it...I think the Euro wasn't too far off from what the NAM was saying last night. But the GFS, new NAM and Canadian were all in a lighter QPF/further south camp. That said, if the NAM did verify this would be a significant hit south of Route 20, a decent hit in the Thruway corridor and a light snow up north. Watch the GFS for trends over the next couple hours. Ratios with this event will be 12-15:1 or so.

Posted February 20th at 10:05 AM
JmD-Fonda:

Quick question for anyone: can someone briefly explain the following excerpt, taken from NWS Alb forecast discussion?

"with..... anomalies of 1-2 Standard deviations below
normal over southern New York and southern New England." I have seen this phrase "anomalies....below normal, anomalies...above normal". Does this apply to the windfields? And Matt,thanks for your post on the robins migration myth. I found that site very interesting!

Posted February 20th at 10:21 AM
Matt Lanza:

JmD...I figured a lot of people would. I couldn't tell you how many times we get questions or shocked emails from people wondering why robins were out in winter!

As for the anomalies. The NWS Albany specifically has done a lot of research into wind anomalies at the 850 mb level and I think jet stream level. Basically...are the winds stronger or lighter than normal. There's actually a website that plots all this....it can be useful. But this can occasionally provide insight as to where/how heavy precip may set up during coastal storms. During last Valentine's Day, this was extremely useful in giving us confidence to forecast 30-36" east of Utica and them actually getting 35-45"! The anomalies then were outrageous.

Posted February 20th at 10:37 AM
Matt Lanza:

GFS holds on to keeping the suppressed solution. One thing I think is at issue is the position of the high pressure system to our north. The GFS has it near Ottawa, whereas the NAM positions it much further east. Drier air is locked in with the GFS, so less precip makes it in. I am inclined to lean on the GFS at the moment, considering how much more support it has. But we'll see.

Posted February 20th at 11:00 AM
Matt HP:

How far is that band going to continue to push south?

Posted February 20th at 11:14 AM
mike(leonardville):

hey I just looked at the 12z models and it looks like were going to have west runner for next week. So this looks more like the same as it has been all winter. Ice to start, then rain, then a dusting to end it. Might be time to hope the 70 and 80 degree temperatures get here early this year.

Posted February 20th at 1:31 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

40" of snow and still falling heavily in Pulaski.Most of this has fallen since midnight.

Posted February 20th at 3:15 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

wow 40 inches of snow, pulaski has been getting nailed this year!! matt, fridays storm is looking more and more like a prolonged snow event, perhaps 24-36 hrs in duration, and maybe 3 waves of snow. it would affect bgm much more than utica according to the WRF at least.

Posted February 20th at 4:07 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Just a little further north right mike!!!! We deserve some snow for a change.

Posted February 20th at 4:27 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Just a few brief little bursts of snow this afternoon - 19" on the ground for snowpack and a seasonal total of 114.9" this winter. Lots of snowmobile on the trails and the groomers have been out in full force.

Posted February 20th at 4:35 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

jeff, yep we deffinetly deserve some snow.

Posted February 20th at 4:57 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Models averaging about 0.5"-1.5" total snow for the event up here...but definitely higher chances the further south you are. Tonight might be fun in your area, Jeff. Thinking 2-4", with iso. 6" for N Chenango, Madison and Southern Oneida. Click here for map.

Posted February 20th at 5:11 PM
Matt Lanza`:

Ok...so maybe not so much northern Chenango...amounts will be isolated, but a few 2-3" amounts are possible.

Posted February 20th at 5:12 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Nah, we never get LES. Especially not when its forcasted!!! My sister lives in Bridgewater and she gets snow from LES once and a while. Looks like they might get some tonight!

Posted February 20th at 5:32 PM
tim (mohawk):

What is wrong with the rader. Also there is no 5 day forecast.

Posted February 20th at 5:41 PM
Matt Lanza:

Tim: Not sure what you're not seeing. On wktv.com, if you click "Weather" at the top, you can see our radar and the 7-day easily.

Posted February 20th at 5:47 PM
vinny(utica):

who would have ever thought.snow always for the most part is north and east of utica and what do you know now the eclipse will be better seen north and east of us.what a shock but about the norm.lol

Posted February 20th at 5:50 PM
Matt Lanza:

Email scam alert: Don't open any attachments in emails entitled "Cool photo of Lunar Eclipse!" It's a virus and won't be good at all. Just a head's up.

Posted February 20th at 5:53 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

The pictures from Pulaski are something else!

Posted February 20th at 6:05 PM
Matt Lanza:

Washington State's DOT has some amazing pictures from Snoqualmie Pass, where I-90 punches through the Cascades. The only other places you'll see snow like this are north of here. Incredible photos.

Posted February 20th at 6:26 PM
Brad (Oneonta):

Jeff, what do you reference in Southern Hills? I have been trying to figure it out, but give up.

Matt, awesome job here man.

Posted February 20th at 7:06 PM
Greg(Vernon):

9wsyr is calling for 2-12" in the same area as your 2-6". What do you think for southern oneida?

Posted February 20th at 7:52 PM
Matt Lanza:

Greg, see my map in #92 for our forecast. 2-4", isolated 5-6" on hilltops.

Posted February 20th at 7:58 PM
stevo (rome):

cool pics matt.i haven seen snowbanks that high here since i was a kid!whats going on where has all the snow gone? :0(

Posted February 20th at 8:00 PM
Roger:

When I am at this web address http://wktv.linkjam.com/weather/main.php The radar is dated dec 10 and the 5 day forecast is no longer there. I have been able to get to the radar from wktv.coms home page. Maybe this is what tim is referring too.

Anyway I am not complaining you all are doing an awesome job with the weather here.

Posted February 20th at 8:01 PM
Matt (CB):

Took a trip to syracuse today.How depressing to see all that beautifull grass from just west of Rome all the way out.Was sad to have to come back to this desolate snow bearing contry.
Anyway,13 degrees with light westerly winds amd mostly clear skies.Good for lunar eclips right now.Hope the clouds stay away

Posted February 20th at 8:04 PM
Matt Lanza:

New entry up. Enjoy the eclipse!

Posted February 20th at 8:45 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

The moon was out here for several hours.Now that it's time for the eclipse it's gone!

Posted February 20th at 8:45 PM
Matt (CB):

Good show of the first half of the eclips.Took just over an hour for total eclips.Should start to see it reappear around eleven.

Posted February 20th at 10:08 PM

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