Weather Blog | January Thaw in Its Final Days...

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We continue to be in this thaw pattern across the East. Even though it's not 50s and 60s, we've seen above freezing high temperatures since January 5th. Typically, the thaw only lasts a week or so, but in this instance, with record warmth, we're going a little longer. The last day of the thaw should be Thursday (although a midnight high could keep it going through Friday).

So even though we've lost almost our entire snowpack, chew on this one. The 1.5" of snow today brings us to 40.7" for the season, which is normal for January 8th. So technically we're right on schedule for where we should be in the snow department, even though it hasn't exactly happened like it should. That said, today won't be the only day this week we add snow to our total. Now some details...

Through Tuesday Evening

Light snow will continue across the area. Bill Kardas is in with me tonight and he did just point out that on radar, we could be seeing a lake response, and indeed I think that's happening. Albeit a limited one, but one nonetheless. So while a coating to 2" or so is possible across the area, I could see a few areas in western Oneida County maybe picking up a smidge more. That said, snow will wind down Tuesday throughout the day. Generally a half inch or so up to 5" of total snow (from last night through tomorrow) will be possible.

Thursday Night/Friday

This will help us transition back to winter. Is this going to be a big storm? As we saw with the last one, a lot can change, but there are two consistencies that have been on the models with this system. Number one: It has been well modeled for days. Unlike the last storm, there has not been much waffling back and forth with this storm. Number two: It has been modeled as a modest storm, with the potential for both a primary and coastal low. What does this mean? Remember December? We got caught up between the two storms, and while the end of the storm was fun, we could have done significantly better. This storm will not be nearly as large. Therefore, if we get caught up in between the two systems, we could end up with only an inch or two of snow. At this point, with a fair amount of confidence, I will say that this will not be a big storm for CNY. At worst, this would bring advisory level accumulations to the area. But this storm isn't too terribly exciting. Still it's snow, right?

Weekend

Snow will rapidly end on Friday, as this storm will be in a hurry. Then, colder air will begin arriving on WSW winds. Lake Ontario should begin responding by Friday afternoon.

The following images are from a program we use called BUFKIT. What you want to pay attention to is the left half of the image, with the map. Let's walk through the weekend.

Let's start at Friday 4 PM. Here's the map.

What you notice are winds from the WSW. At the bottom, you'll note that our 850 temps have tumbled to -14 and the word "Conditional" is indicating that LES could begin (and probably will) developing.

By 1 AM, you'll notice that instability has gone to Moderate. You'll also notice no wind shift. So whatever has developed stays put. This does indicate that some heavy snow is likely on WSW winds. 850 mb temps are only down to -15 though, so the core of the first shot of cold is over us and it's only slowly deepening further.

By 7 AM Saturday, winds shift more to a SW direction, a response from an approaching shortwave trough that will usher in "the motherload" of cold. Instability stays moderate and 850s actually begin to rise a bit.

By 1 PM, you will notice that winds are back to the WSW, a sign that the shortwave trough is crossing the area. Notice that lake induced CAPE values jump from 600 at 7 AM to almost 1,100 by 1 PM. I'm not going to go making predictions, but it is possible that the lake effect way up north may begin to significantly intensity late Saturday morning and early afternoon, with the possibility of thunder very much real. In fact, another index we use for measuring the potential for thunderstorms, especially in winter, called the total totals index, is up to 58. Traditionally, anything over 50 indicates at least a chance of thunder...so seeing a number that high is certainly enough to raise an eyebrow.

By hour 132, Saturday evening, winds have clearly shifted into the northwest. Instability goes to extreme. 850 mb temps drop to -16 Celsius. The difference between 700 mb temperatures and lake increases to over 30 degrees as well, which is a good sign that something very well organized should be going. Mean wind direction at this time is between 295 and 300, but I don't want to get specific this far out with that. Let's generalize with a NW wind.

By 1 AM Sunday morning, instability is still there, and we're likely dealing with a well-organized band. But then, check out 7 AM Sunday and 1 PM Sunday as well. The wind direction essentially doesn't change.

So what does this all mean? What I think now is this:

- Lake effect develops in the North Country on Friday morning and afternoon, likely across Lewis, extreme northern Oswego and specifically Jefferson Counties. Heavy snow will be possible in this area through about Midnight or so. Significant accumulation is possible.

- Lake snows will shift further north, clearing our viewing area after Midnight and through Saturday at sunrise. Lake snows will impact Watertown and perhaps St. Lawrence County.

- A shortwave trough will plow through on Saturday morning and afternoon, invigorating the lake effect and dropping it south, while also delivering widespread light to moderate and locally heavy snow to the rest of the viewing area. The lake snows will drop through the North Country and eventually into or south of the Mohawk Valley Saturday afternoon.

- Between Saturday afternoon and Sunday evening, the lake snows will continue, and could be very heavy at times, especially from Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Whoever sees this band will see significant accumulation, as it does not appear to be a transient band at this point. Whether this is the Thruway corridor, Route 20 corridor or elsewhere remains to be seen. Lake snows will slowly diminish throughout the day Sunday as high pressure noses in and provides drier air.

That's just a rough outline of what I think will go down right now. Stay tuned throughout the week, as obviously, this could get really interesting.

Beyond the weekend, we'll see a slow moderation, followed by potentially another reinforcing shot of cold. I do not see any potential for more than a 24-48 hour period of continuous lake effect though, as the NAO remains neutral/positive....thus blocking is just not there. No blocking means that cold shots will come in, but also move out quickly. That doesn't mean you can't have good cold, snow and lake effect. It just limits the time any one event can impact you. We'll keep you posted.

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Comments

James (Sauquoit):

Matt, its snowing like mad here. its a strange type of snow coming down fast looks like a downpour only with snow?

Posted January 14th at 9:11 PM
Matt Lanza:

James: You may be in a squall. Quiet as could be here on the hill. Not even a flake at the moment.

Posted January 14th at 9:15 PM
James (Sauquoit):

Thanks. Great entry above. It will be interesting to watch the developments from Thursday - Sunday. One interesting thing, the farmers almanac predicts snowstorm on the 17th, how do they forecast? Do they use magic beans or something? It seems impossible to me that they can predict the weather several months in advance. I am sure sometimes they get lucky once in awhile, i just wondered if you knew what method they used.

Posted January 14th at 9:23 PM
Matt Lanza:

James: I honestly have no idea how they do that, but, as much as I don't want to degrade it because it has been used for years, I think it's useless. You forecast the same thing enough times, it'll work out.

Posted January 14th at 9:37 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

The windmill company sent me a copy last year. All I wanted to know was the cattle report!

Posted January 14th at 9:50 PM
Jimmy DeFazio(New Hartford):

Matt should I not be taking my snowfall measurements on a wooden deck surface?

Posted January 14th at 10:00 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jimmy: In most cases, no. You'd rather do it on a snowboard, a white painted board of wood, in an open area. But, for our purposes right now, a deck is probably fine.

Posted January 14th at 10:12 PM
Matt Lanza:

Looks like a solid 4-12" in Massachusetts and inland Connecticut. 7" total in Boston from the storm. Not at all a bad event for them.

Posted January 14th at 10:25 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Quite a few 12-20" reports in Maine.Portland got a foot.They have well over 50" this year.They usually get rain with these systems.NAM is onboard with the storm...barely.You can tell it's a direct hit though.

Posted January 14th at 10:48 PM
mike m(binghamton):

hovered around freezing with light snow all day here. no accumulation in the valleys(through sunset) but about an inch on the hilltops(trough sunset) then the temp dropped slightly below freezing after sunset and most place picked up another 1-2 inches after sunset. so thats .5-1" in the valleys with 2-3 across the highest elevations( above 1600, and especially south of binghamton).

Posted January 14th at 11:13 PM
Matt Lanza:

GFS also in and showing similar scenario to earlier runs, with us getting caught in between. The NAM would be a good hit...but you would be sacrificing cold air for more liquid precip. So snow amounts, while certainly higher, would be around a 10:1 ratio or potentially lower.

Posted January 14th at 11:13 PM
mike m(binghamton):

Rob, yea he NAM/WRF hits us pretty good(maybe sleet though?) but the gfs just does not want to develop the coastal storm at all; leaving us in that dry slot. its hard to tell which model is correct as of now, we will know in about a day or two for sure.matt, is is there the potential for the lake effect to hit binghamton next weekend? with at least a few inches of snow?

Posted January 14th at 11:16 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Sure there is...I thought you guys would take the brunt of it yesterday when I caught myself up with the models. But today I think you guys will miss the big party...although you should get some snow.

Posted January 14th at 11:23 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah the GFS is bad news.The Euro is rather wimpy with the storm.Usually when you get a storm forming in the Gulf and track up the coast it tends to deepen pretty good.Don't really see any signs of that.

Posted January 14th at 11:24 PM
Matt Lanza:

But the GFS looks excellent for LES lovers on WNW winds!

Posted January 14th at 11:36 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

thanks matt, and im still keeping my fingers crossed for the 00z nam to verify!!!!

Posted January 14th at 11:47 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Well that's good to hear.It's been awhile since we could put arctic air and a good flow together.

Posted January 14th at 11:48 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

28 degrees with some very fine snow grains falling. Snow total so far is at 4.0" inches here. Remember guys, all the parts or components to this storm have not yet come together, so I wouldn't start putting much stock in them until this thing actually forms in the gulf.

Posted January 15th at 12:06 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

michael...i believe it is suppose to form by tomorrow in the gulf then move rather slowly ENE, toward florida panhandle by wednesday.

Posted January 15th at 12:12 AM
randy Vitullo:

Matt or Bill: The LES looks to be too far north for Holland Patent (initially) and too far south for HP on Sunday. Am I correct with my assumptions (at this point in time)? Also, the red dot on your map appears to be too far north to be Utica. Is it supposed to be Utica? On the thaw issue; we have basically been in a thaw pattern since just before Xmas (it didn't happen in Jan., but....) with the exception of a couple of cold days right after New Years. In my mind, this thaw has persisted for about 3 weeks. What is your take on that Matt?

Posted January 15th at 5:42 AM
snowman:

I guess you forgot about December 27th through January 6th when the Adirondacks picked up a foot-and-a-half of snow ;)

Posted January 15th at 8:04 AM
Matt Lanza:

Randy: There was certainly a bit of a warmup for many between Dec. 19 and and January 1st. But, since temps in that timeframe occasionally strayed to near normal or even close to below normal, it was too broken up to be considered a true thaw. Plus that major cold snap after New Years was too significant to keep it continuous. So the "warmth" in December was more a function of particular storm tracks than of a full pattern change like we've seen this month. As far as your LE concerns, yes, technically if this were to verify verbatum, that would be the case, but it's way too early in the game to call anyone's chances off. The red dot on those maps indicates Rome (I didn't put it there...it automatically shows up). :)

Posted January 15th at 9:17 AM
Holly - atop Roberts Rd:

It was thundering at my house around 6:00am........

Posted January 15th at 9:26 AM
Matt Lanza:

12Z NAM is in and I think a bit more realistic than last night's run. Showing a bit of a hole in the precip as it lifts north, and has cut back on total precip. Still showing about an inch for the North Country, but around or under a half inch elsewhere. It also continues to show VERY marginal temperatures throughout the event, meaning, again, a wet snow, with low ratios. The Adirondacks may be able to do 10:1 or better, but anywhere south and west of Boonville would be doing 10:1 or less, with some surface temps well into the 30s. We'll have a look at the GFS a bit later.

Posted January 15th at 10:14 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

3.0" here from our little flizzard so far.Lake band dropped 10" just south of BUF.

Posted January 15th at 10:56 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Matt when you look at streamline winds for LES,which is the best to go by?Like off the millibar charts.

Posted January 15th at 11:21 AM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: Nice refresh timing on my part haha. Usually you like to look at a handful of parameters. This far out, I use overall 500 mb flow to help gauge what kind of dominant flow pattern we're looking at. As you get closer, 850 mb streamlines are a great tool. Also, 925 streamlines work too...along with 925 mb vertical velocities. Those are the best for general placement. As an aside, the GFS looks great from the 12Z run regarding LES. I am continuing to feel confident that someone in our viewing area is going to be quite happy by Monday morning.

Posted January 15th at 11:24 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Thanks!Yeah I'm starting to focus more on the LES than the synoptic storm.Just doesn't look good.

Posted January 15th at 11:28 AM
Jeff (Southern hills):

I love the new term "Flizzard" It is so what is happening out there today. We are up to 3.5" of snow now.

Also off topic but if anyone has information, I just heard that there is a helicopter crash near the windmills on Peterboro Rd. in Fenner? Any info?????

Posted January 15th at 12:17 PM
Bob (Cooperstown):

Heard Helicopter down 04 persons on board, 01 injury. They had cell phone contact with one of the passengers on the ground

Posted January 15th at 12:24 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: Flizzard is a great term. We used this in college a few times. Flizzard and snizzle are my two favorite non-technical terms I think.

Posted January 15th at 12:28 PM
Bob (Cooperstown):

I always liked "SNAIN" Half rain Half snow

Posted January 15th at 12:32 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

On the crash: Any idea what company, I have a paramedic friend that works for Stat Medivac (not that I think they would fly today), but I cant reach him by phone.

Posted January 15th at 12:35 PM
Dave:

From WSYR website
Town of Fenner, Madison County (WSYR-TV) - News is Breaking in the Madison County Town of Fenner where a helicopter has crashed. The crash is located near the windmills, at the corner of Peterboro Road and Bellinger Road.

Posted January 15th at 1:01 PM
Jeff:

Matt,
I watched the weather channel @ noon, they mentioned that another storm will be developing in the Gulf early next week, do you have any indications on that?

Posted January 15th at 1:38 PM
Gina (Trenton Falls):

This is from NOAA's website

THE SECOND IS A POTENTIAL ELONGATED LAKE EVENT. PROGGED WINDS
INDICATE A 250 TO 270 FLOW FOR LATE FRIDAY AND MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A BAND INTO ONEIDA COUNTY AND AREAS
NORTHWARD. IT IS TOO EARLY TO FORECAST ACCUMS, BUT IT IS SAFE TO
SAY THAT IF THIS PATTERN VERIFIES WE WILL REBUILD THE SNOWPACK
OVER THE SOUTHERN TUG HILL.-- End Changed Discussion --

Posted January 15th at 1:41 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

jeff, its been snowing all day here also. 1.5 inches so far at my house with around 3 inches in the highest elevations. matt, does it still look like binghamton could get some decent LES on sunday?

Posted January 15th at 3:04 PM
relax:

A helicopter made an emergency landing in the Madison County town of Fenner around noon Tuesday, according to 911 dispatchers and state police.

The private craft went down in foggy conditions near the Fenner Wind Farm at Bellinger and Peterboro roads, about four miles northeast of Cazenovia. There were four people on board the helicopter and all of them walked away from the crash, apparently with only minor injuries, state police said.

Look for the full story and photos Wednesday in The Post-Standard.

Posted January 15th at 3:10 PM
Ken ( South Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

Just a thought....maybe wktv could start a news blog....for stories and info like the helicopter incident or recent fires....rather than the info taking up space here in the weather blog. also bring on the lake effect this weekend, and lots of it....would not mind having to miss work on sunday to watch the giants game.

Posted January 15th at 3:40 PM
Matt Lanza:

Ken: We'll pitch it, but there's more downtime for us in weather than those in news, so I don't know how realistic it is.

Mike M: Not entirely sure...everyone's still in play for LES, but right now, WNW/NW flow would favor N & E of your area.

Jeff: I see no signs of a significant storm right now, but we'll see.

Posted January 15th at 3:50 PM
Matt Lanza:

Looks like a reinforcing shot of cold toward the middle or end of next week, followed by a steady warm up heading toward February. Doubtful it gets even close to where we were last week though.

Posted January 15th at 4:39 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I was just curious about the Green Bay game Sunday.850 temps look around -25.What could that translate to for being a night game?

Posted January 15th at 4:51 PM
Rick (yorkville):

As for the warm up you are talking about toward Feb, would we be looking at a complete loss of the snow pack again? I really wish winter would just stay winter!!!!!

Posted January 15th at 5:07 PM
Matt Lanza:

I'm going +3 for a kickoff temperature Sunday. Hopefully Eli can get rid of the cold weather monkey while he's at it. Although, I'm not sure what would be more entertaining: Favre vs. Brady or a rematch of the Giants/Pats. We'll see.

Rick: Nah. It looks warmer, but not too much warmer. And I think we'll have enough snow on the ground after this weekend to last awhile.

Posted January 15th at 5:29 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Wow that's cold.Especially if there is any wind.

Posted January 15th at 5:41 PM
ken:

matt,it never seems like utica ever gets any big lake snows at least in east utica where i am.it it possible we can get nailed in our area with this lake effect event?if so can we be talking significant snow meaning a 6 inch or more snowfall?

Posted January 15th at 5:54 PM
Matt Lanza:

Ken: 6" might be an understatement if this thing can pan out right. We'll see, but it's certainly possible that more than 6" falls.

Posted January 15th at 6:15 PM
ken:

thanks matt,i am so into storms thats why i ask these questions.thank god for you guys,you do an awesome job keeping us up to date on the weather.thanks again.

Posted January 15th at 6:23 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Matt, what would it take for areas from a Little Falls, Dolgeville, Stratford line to get heavy lake effect snow totals? I am not asking about this upcoming event specifically, just in general with any lake effect event. I know that it would have to be a pretty extreme event, but what wind flow would you need and how wide of a band would you need? We have had some very intense snow here from lake effect, but 90% of the time the band was so narrow and moving to the south so quickly that it only lasted about a half an hour.

Posted January 15th at 6:25 PM
Matt Lanza:

Michael: You would probably need a 280-290 flow, with pretty strong winds to get the lake snows over the terrain west of your area. If you had that, a steady band, and upper lakes connections, Dolgeville/Stratford would do well. Little Falls would need about 295 or so to get into the fun.

Posted January 15th at 6:39 PM
randy Vitullo:

Matt, are the chances for HP inproving? What wind flow would I need In HP?

Posted January 15th at 6:57 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Thanks alot Matt! I forgot a little about Lake Effect, since we haven't had hardly any this winter to watch, so your info got me back on track again.

Posted January 15th at 7:13 PM
Stacy ( Stratford):

Wishful thinking eh Michael? Saw your post, and had to comment! I'm content with the snow we have. I'm wishing for a significant warm up. Ready for old man winter to move on out of here...

Posted January 15th at 7:27 PM
Matt Lanza:

Randy: You guys are still in the game, as is everyone. Although I think the heaviest snow may end up in southern Oneida/northern Madison. For you, you want about a 295 flow also. One day I'll try and set up a table with wind values for LES. I believe that has been done before, but for the life of me, I can't find the paperwork.

Posted January 15th at 7:29 PM
Matt Lanza:

My periodic APB for seasonal snow totals. Post them if you have them. West Leyden, Redfield, Utica and Syracuse are updated on the list.

Posted January 15th at 7:32 PM
Brad (Oneonta):

Matt: So while you are at it for your predictions of LES on sunday, what about Otsego County.....any thoughts? Thanks

Posted January 15th at 7:37 PM
Matt Lanza:

Brad: I think north of you stands a better chance than south, but...and this is a big but...if the winds do shift anymore northwesterly, you would be in business.

To summarize this for everyone, since I won't be able to answer all IMBY questions: My current thinking with regard to LES is that on Friday night and Saturday, people not in our viewing area cash in. This could be a hit for Watertown and Buffalo.

Then, from Saturday night through Monday, I would say that the North Country is the least likely to see the major lake snows. Everyone else stands an equal chance at this point. We can start slowly narrowing things down, and this is the start.

Posted January 15th at 7:45 PM
Stacy ( Stratford ):

what does IMBY stand for? LOL Sorry, not good with abbreviations.

Posted January 15th at 8:22 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Port Leyden has added 3" to the total, whatever that might be (I'm to lazy to add right now).

IMBY = In my backyard.

Posted January 15th at 8:25 PM
Stacy (Stratford):

Thanks Mike! I've never seen that abbreviation used. Still learning!

Posted January 15th at 8:27 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

42.5" for me.I get nervous once in awhile with these arctic air masses because once in awhile you get some really dry air that come with it.I guessing there is no chance of than at this point?

Posted January 15th at 8:28 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

58.46" inches for the seasonal snow total here. Stacy, how much snow is on the ground up in your area?

Posted January 15th at 8:31 PM
Matt (HP):

Matt,

Eli in Green Bay, no offense to Giants fans. But Eli has gotten better but not that good!
I think a very entertainting Super Bowl will be a showdown of quarterbacks.

NOW back to weather....I got nothing

Posted January 15th at 8:57 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: I'm a Titans fan, so it matters none to me. The fiancee is a Giants fan though, so I feel morally obliged to root for them.

Thanks for the totals all!

Rob: I'm a bit concerned about there not being enough moisture for a honking band. But, I think the setup is enough to overcome that. So at this point...I'm not worried.

Posted January 15th at 9:09 PM
Jimmy DeFazio(New Hartford):

Seasonal total here now at 53.15 inches.

Posted January 15th at 9:33 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Matt...it looks like anywhere the LES band sit for awhile will be measuring in feet when all is said and done. From what i'm seeing it looks like southern Lewis County will see less snow than areas in the northern and central tug. also Utica and areas west will do well in the snow department. It seems that oswego and NW Oneida counties are going to be the jackpot winners. is that how your seeing it?

Posted January 15th at 9:58 PM
Matt Lanza:

Becky: Right now I'm pinning western Oneida and probably somewhere within 15 miles of the Thruway...my gut thinks south, but we'll see. Someone should be happy when this is over.

Posted January 15th at 10:08 PM
Matt Lanza:

I think the one other thing that needs to be mentioned is that, while it appears that we're talking about constant, steady flow from Sat night through Monday, it won't be that way when it verifies. There will be numerous smaller shortwave troughs that swing through and disrupt the flow during the LES. THose are just impossible to "see" this far out in time.

Posted January 15th at 10:15 PM
randy Vitullo:

Thanks Matt. What about the actual storm on Friday? Is that going to produce the 4 to 7 or 3 to 5 inch snowfall or less?

Posted January 15th at 10:23 PM
Matt Lanza:

NAM really hoses us on Thursday night/Friday now...keeping most precip totals probably under a quarter inch! That wouldn't mean much of any snow. Big change from last night's 00Z, but well supported by the other models. I think the game is off Thursday night/Friday.

Posted January 15th at 10:24 PM
Matt Lanza:

Randy: Looks like maybe 1-3" from the Mohawk Valley south and west and perhaps 2-4" north and east.

Posted January 15th at 10:27 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

My theory is any snow is better than no snow (although more is always better). I'll take 2-4" inches and be satisfied. Hopefully i'll be able to get another 2-4" (or more) from the lake effect maybe.

Posted January 15th at 10:42 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Well we all know what happened last winter after Jan 15th.
Hopefully this year will be the same.We're starting out in the right direction at least.

Posted January 15th at 11:02 PM
Matt Lanza:

GFS is even more paltry with total precipitation from the storm. I will go with that call above in post 71 for now.

Posted January 15th at 11:03 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Looks like we even get to -25 for 850 temps for awhile.That's some cold stuff.

Posted January 15th at 11:25 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: I write down 850 temps every day when I get in for the next 180 hours to help forecast temps. I had a -27 today. Brrr.

Posted January 15th at 11:27 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

thursday night storm is almost a complete miss now!! it could be a repeat of sunday night. i cant believe that we had what seemed to be a perfect gulf storm and we are going to end up with almost nothing!!!matt, and others plz take a look at my snowfall map(LES only) and see what you think. thanks.
http://image50.webshots.com/650/1/94/33/2097194330099650872YtDwVi_fs.jpg

Posted January 15th at 11:28 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: I couldn't get away with making a call this far out. We'll see what happens, but as I've said, someone is going to be pleased come Monday morning. I just don't know who yet...and I couldn't tell you if this is going to be widespread, with lots of high amounts or isolated with a few high amounts and lots of smaller amounts. We'll see.

Posted January 15th at 11:32 PM
ken:

mike,i cant get that site you have for les snow map.what does it say for utica?and your right we are missing what could of been a big storm.will we ever get one that goes our way?

Posted January 15th at 11:41 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Rob... We do love winter up here. However, last year's big LES event was a monster. 100 plus inches of snow over a week to ten days is just to much snow to deal with. Everyone from West Leyden too Redfield and parish too Mexico ran out of places to put the snow. My wish is more smaller storms that drop steady LES.

Posted January 15th at 11:46 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Nice map Mike! Now if we can only get that "heaviest" area right down the Mohawk Valley, lol! I think this map represents most of the lake effect snows that we have dealt with very well in that there always seems to be a "shadowing effect" in southern Herkimer county right along the valley. I think Matt discussed this issue a few times before also.

Posted January 15th at 11:52 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

WOW! Redfield is at 106.0" inches for the season. I think they might add a little bit to that total this weekend, hahaha! What is even more impressive with that total is we haven't really had any eye popping lake effect yet this season. Must have been some upslope influence there. Becky, you have no clue what some of us would do to have that kind of snowfall in one week. I envy you guys up there!

Posted January 16th at 12:17 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

michael, that area of heaviest snow which i put on the map which extends south of the mohawk valley still does have the potential to set up right through the valley( utica,Dolgeville, herkimer etc...) if the wind direction is perfect. as matt said it is still a bit early for details i just wanted to throw a map out there to see if we were all on the same page..and to spark some discusion.Ken, right in utica i have them down for a PRELIMINARY call of 8-12 inches. with more possible outside the usual shadowed areas.

Posted January 16th at 12:26 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, i wont hold you to a forecast yet lol. i would guess we wont know what wil happen for sure until that sorry excuse for a coastal storm goes by, along with that clipper in the midwest. of course that is what should spark the lake effect.

Posted January 16th at 12:28 AM
Josh (salisbury):

I could handle the amounts shown on the map as i'm in the same boat a michael "the more the merrier, but any is better than none!"

Posted January 16th at 12:46 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

That would be perfect Mike, but I know how far out this event still is and how hard lake effect is to predict hours in advance let alone 4+ days. Again, I think you have a very good map for this point in time that has a very real probability of happening.

Posted January 16th at 12:47 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

Josh, ....agreed!!! michael, i agree, and thank you for the comp on the map. iwill continue to post updated maps as we draw closer to the even. i am concerned that any real LES may not start until sunday due to another coastal clipper combo coming up the coast. this would not( i believe) alow cold enough air for lake effect until it passes satuday night. this might cutoff the LES potential for areas that were suppose to get it on a SW to west flow friday night through saturday night.

Posted January 16th at 1:00 AM
Kurt (Cooperstown/Miami):

(I just made this big ol' post, but, for some reason, the computer ditched it and it was lost...oh well). But, the jist of it was that I like what I see here, so far...and hopefully, we can build onto it this weekend w/ the LES. Already this is way way better than when I was here for Christmas last winter!

Posted January 16th at 2:31 AM
Matt ( CB ):

Was 12 degrees with a slight east wind as the sun came up this morning.Almost 3 inches of new snow from last two days.How long and deep is the Arctic Blast gonna be?Come on April !!!

Posted January 16th at 8:26 AM
SteveH (Tully):

snow total so far this year is 72.6" in Tully, NY

Posted January 16th at 9:00 AM
MG (Point Rock):

Snow total in Point Rock is 77.5 inches

Posted January 16th at 9:25 AM
Gary
http://Vernon:

What does the weekend LES look like right now for southern oneida.

Posted January 16th at 9:50 AM
mark (new hartford):

THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE AND FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ALONG WITH LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES...WILL BRING DAILY
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THIS PATTERN. A GENERAL WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY SHOULD BRING THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE
SNOWS FROM THE SYRACUSE/ROME/UTICA AREAS UP INTO THE SOUTHERN TUG
HILL REGION...MORE DIRECTLY DOWNWIND FROM LAKE ONTARIO.

Posted January 16th at 10:41 AM
Matt Lanza:

Mark: While that will probably end up being right, I'm not 100% sold that this event does not impact areas south of the Mohawk Valley significantly. We need a few more runs before we can really start to pin things down and eliminate certain areas from the mix.

Posted January 16th at 10:50 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

NAM has been consistant giving northern sections 6-8" for Friday.Is this from lake enhancement or just being in the right spot?

Posted January 16th at 11:42 AM
Granny J(Floyd):

I am suppose to go to Oswego for the weekend. Leaving Friday and returning Monday. How does Friday look to leave and do you think Oswego will get hit pretty good over the weekend with lake effect.

Posted January 16th at 11:43 AM
James (Sauquoit):

Does anybody know approx. what time it will start snowing on Sunday?

Posted January 16th at 11:48 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Granny I would prepare for the worst.This is looking like a big event for Oswego county.I'm sure there will be several reports of 2-4' out that way by late Monday.

Posted January 16th at 12:49 PM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Can anyone let me know were i can look at the upcoming LES event through models because i tried downloading bufkit from noaa.gov
and it does not update. Thanks

Posted January 16th at 12:54 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Justin it won't be on the NAM untill 12Z tomorrow.I'm just going by streamline winds and the amount of instability.

Posted January 16th at 1:02 PM
John(Amsterdam):

Matt, or anyone else, what do you see happening tomorrow night into Friday morning from Amsterdam to Albany? Do you think we will get any snow? How is the morning commute looking? Any help would be greatly appreciated. BTW- Great site Matt!

Posted January 16th at 1:27 PM
Matt Lanza:

Granny: You should be fine Friday, but you may have issues Monday, as somewhere between Oswego and Floyd will be some very heavy snow I think.

James: Snow will start Saturday evening. The timing of the heavy snow depends on where the band sets up, which is impossible to determine at this time.

John: Thank you! I think you'll get a few inches in Amsterdam. But, I think the commute, while perhaps a bit slushy, won't be all that bad. In fact, snow may change to rain for a time Friday morning/afternoon before it ends. So. We'll see.

Posted January 16th at 1:34 PM
James (Sauquoit):

Thanks Matt I appreciate the reply.

Posted January 16th at 1:54 PM
Lisa:

Matt you had stated that the thurs-fri storm was going to be a miss, Does that still stand? I hate when weather ruins plans.. Lets hope it doesnt amt to much and that Sunday it clears out real fast.

Posted January 16th at 1:57 PM
Matt(Marcy):

hey does anyone have an estimate as to the lake-snow storm/blizzard sno totals

Posted January 16th at 4:45 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

My estimation from now until monday - 1'-15". The tug hill'ness should help.

Posted January 16th at 5:48 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

From what I have been reading, this event could be BIG! Everything looks ideal for a big snow and I don't see what could mess this up. Winds are not too strong and not too weak, we have a good potential for an upper lakes connection, plenty of cold air, a steady WNW wind flow, and LI Capes over 1000. I would like to see this band extend inland to at least western Fulton and Montgomery counties, and have it about 25 miles wide before I went off the deep end with accumulations. I want to see a 280-290 degree flow for my area to get in on anything.

Posted January 16th at 6:50 PM
SteveH (Tully):

What wind direction favors my area; Tully, NY (Southern Onondaga county). I want to say 310 degree is what I always notice give us the big accumulations. Any validity to this?

I noticed the BUFKIT shows a nice swath painted out Saturday night for what appears to be my area. WE are going to have some "Southerners" (Southeast PA :-) family in for the weekend and we were hoping to show them some real Lake Effect!

Posted January 16th at 9:02 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

steve,300-320 degrees for both of us id say. like you said 310 is probably the best for you. im impressed by your 72 inch total so far...not bad at all. how much you got on the ground?

Posted January 16th at 9:11 PM
SNO X (WESTMO):

If i remember correctly Matt said he was going to the "Cuse" Rugters B-ball game tonight. So Matt did you enjoy watching your boys get pounded haha go orange. Sorry I'm off topic but i had to get some payback from football season

Posted January 16th at 9:51 PM
Stacy (Stratford):

Mike in Binghamton...Are you a meteorologist? how do you guys all know exactly how to read these weather maps? I have no clue what I am looking at. I'd love to learn if someone actually had the patience. Even to be able to understand all the terminology would be great. I guess this is why I settled for nursing!

Posted January 16th at 10:01 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Stacy I've learned most everything right out of this blog.When you get bored someday just go back through the archives and you can pick up on alot of things.Matt has some great posts that are very educational.That's how I learned.

Posted January 16th at 10:20 PM
ken:

mike or rob what are you seeing for utica right now for les event.i know its early but any early amount indications yet?

Posted January 16th at 10:24 PM
Bob Jones:

Matt, what happened to the global warming freaks? Shouldn't we start blowing the whistle about global cooling with this shot of cold air and snow? Seems to be the way it works.

Posted January 16th at 10:30 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Stacy, reading the models and maps is more of a skill that you learn through experience. It takes time and at least a basic understanding of weather terms. No body knows everything about the maps and models, but us regulars do have a fairly good understanding of what is going on when you see all that "technical lingo". Just because Matt and Bill are meteorolgists doesn't mean they know everything about the models either. For example, both will admit that BUFKIT (state of the art computer model) has so many capabilities that even they haven't discovered them all yet. So don't feel bad if you don't know what you are looking at, as myself and many others on here are in the same situation at times.

Posted January 16th at 10:31 PM
Bill Kardas:

Folks,

Sorry about the lack of attention given to the blog today. My wisdom teeth are coming out tomorrow and I'm going to be out of commission for the weekend. Lake effect forecasting is stressful. I'll be happily sitting this one out with a cup of hot chocolate and a bottle of painkillers.

Posted January 16th at 10:40 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

Stacy... i wish i were a meteorologist lol maybe in a few years...but as Michael and Rob have said ive learned everything just by surfing the web, looking at the models daily, and mostly from this blog. matt has in the past posted info on how to read many models. are you looking for sites with models on them or are u just looking for how to read these models. also about the terminology...there are still many words i dont know for sure, the best way to find out what they mean is to either asked on here or look them up online.

Posted January 16th at 10:52 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

Ken... no i dont really see any differences since yerterday in the LES for utica. i wont really know what is going on until the NAM can forecast for that time frame bc the gfs is of little use(too low resolution) once the NAM and WRF start to show precip for the sunday monday time period we can see just how significant this may be. perhaps Rob knows more already??? he is really good with LES!!!

Posted January 16th at 10:55 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Sorry to hear that Bill. Now we have two Meteorlogists out of commission, as Matt will be gone from tonight through Friday night, and Bill is going to be hurting too much to even think about the weather. It's all up to Adam and Jill!

Posted January 16th at 10:58 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

The NAM is on board with about a 300 flow to start.Where it goes from there I don't know.Central Oswego and the thruway corridor would be my guess.

Posted January 16th at 10:59 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

All I know for sure is that someone in Oswego County will have about 2-4' of snow by Monday night.

Posted January 16th at 11:05 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

Rob,i somewhat concur...im not too sure about the duration of this event, i think it may end up only being 24-36 hrs instead of 2-3 days as i had originally pictured it. also as the artic front blows by you can almost always count on winds shifting to NW or NNW for a time; this would do two things; one lower amounts across southern tug hill,oswego county and thruway corridor, and two increase amounts south of route 20 in central NY. i think it may end up being a more widspread 6-15 inch event from lewis,oswego,herkimer(esp north and central) oneida,onondaga,norhern wayne,madison,cortland, chenango(central/northern),and otsego(cen/northern) counties. there will of course probably be those 2' amounts on the favored areas of the tug hill, and isolated to scattered 2' amounts would not be out of the question for all the areas stated above.these are just early estimates. but once again the reason why i dont think we see 3-4' amounts anywhere is one duration, and two changing wind directions. of course i could be completely wrong...well have to wait and see.

Posted January 16th at 11:19 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

True but it doesn't take much to add up snow in Oswego county.They can easily get 2-4"/hr rates.And with 30:1 ratios that adds up quicker than you think.It'll be fun to watch unfold.I hate waiting!

Posted January 16th at 11:26 PM
ken:

rob lets just hope were you are and i am in utica we get pounded.im dying for big snow event.mike hope you get in on action also.

Posted January 16th at 11:32 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

thanks ken..i hope everybody gets exactly how much snow they want lol wouldnt that be nice. check out this updated snowfall map.Rob i leaned a little toward what you were thinking with higher amounts ,see what you think.
http://image65.webshots.com/765/3/2/72/2754302720099650872YuIGaa_fs.jpg

Posted January 16th at 11:48 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

btw just want to throw this out there. this is evidence that the heavy snow will set up along and south of route 20 for while, then it appears as if the snow may shift back north again before ending..again the details are still quite skecthy...as always.

Posted January 16th at 11:50 PM
SteveH (Tully):

MikeM, Tully seems to reap the benefits of having terrain at ~1300' elevation with the hills going up to 2K. It also seems that when the lake effect sets up with the right NW flow, a cooridor from Lafayette-Preble get more measurable snow squeezed out than Syracuse, maybe just due to the orographic lift??
I commute to Syracuse everyday and frequently see a wide disparity in accumulations only 18 miles north and 800 feet lower. Of course when a band fails to meander south Syracuse can be the lucky ones and we see nearly nothing. Right now we only have about 3-4" on the ground, but I'm looking forward to rebuilding the snowpack...gotta get out XC-skiing!

Posted January 17th at 12:00 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Mike that's a neat map.There are lots of other parameters to consider such as inversion heights,snow growth zone...etc.
Some of these can't be looked at untill 36-48hrs out.Dry air is what always worries me the most with arctic air masses.

Posted January 17th at 12:06 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

steve, tully definetly benefits from oragraphic lift. Rob, i agree we wont know until probably 24hrs out.

Posted January 17th at 12:37 AM
Randy Vitullo:

I am thinking a 300 flow will nip Holland Patent. Our trail system for xc skiing is still intact even after the thaw. We have 50 % of our trails still holding a scant base. The ground has finally frozen, which will help with keeping the next snow pack...........What is the latest on the synoptic storm?

Posted January 17th at 7:02 AM
Andy Forestport:

How come there is no mention of it by the NWS anymore?

Posted January 17th at 7:13 AM
Josh (Salisbury):

I am with michael in hoping for a 280-290 flow for some snow in my area. Salisbury seems to do good from lake effect because it is suck hign elevation (highest area in herkimer county). I would like to see a nice 8"+ to get witer time activities fully back into swing... Hopefully with the small snow friday and the lake effect we will be in business.... If not Tug Hill is pretty close to home..

Posted January 17th at 7:50 AM
Josh (Salisbury):

Exact elevation of Salisbury is 1,742' according to Google... Little higher than even i thought..

Posted January 17th at 7:54 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Hey guys. Mike Very great ideas for us to get some heavy snow!!! Hope your forecast comes true......

My question is that another source (national source I know not supposed to talk about it here) shows a map where the snow from the Coastal starts here late Thursday and lasts through Friday. Is the Coastal coming further north now or are we still a miss on that storm?

Posted January 17th at 9:44 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Still looks like a couple inches to me Jeff.This doesn't concern us but the last two runs of the NAM hammer parts of the south with snow and the beaches of the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday.
This would give Birmingham,AL a foot of snow!

Posted January 17th at 9:49 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Back from California hopefully just in time for a decent LE event. I know in the past when Mexico gets hammered I seem to do pretty good up here. A couple of years ago when they got 4-5' ended up with 2+ here. At that time Matt or Adam told me it was a 285 flow so I use that as my benchmark for heavy snow from Point Rock over to here, Steuben, Remsen etc. With the 4.5" this week my seasonal total is up to 68.1".

Posted January 17th at 10:02 AM
Justina (Marcy, NY - WHS):

Adam; is that storm off the coast of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland a upper low? Would that be able to hit us, if winds shift off the ocean at a angle? Isnt there a chance for LES coming up in the next few days? Also isn�t there snow showing on radar, but its dissipating before it touches the ground, because I see no snow falling from the sky here at school. Anyone where are you getting the source of a possible foot to hit in Birmingham, Alabama? Though I can't look up the information at the moment. Currently 22 degrees and partly cloudy, here at WHS, in Marcy.

Posted January 17th at 10:22 AM
Lisa:

Is travel going to be an issue tomorrow in Rome/Utica areas...work commutes and going home??

Posted January 17th at 10:43 AM
sno-x (westmo):

How come the NWS isnt saying anything about the lake effect? is that gonna be a bust not also beacause of the costal stom?

Posted January 17th at 10:43 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Snox they usually don't untill they can get a good look at parameters.To me it looks like this band will hit areas just SW of Utica and then slowly lift north through Monday.

Posted January 17th at 11:18 AM
sno x (westmo):

Thanks Rob

Posted January 17th at 11:28 AM
Andy Forestport:

I am going to go out on a limb here and say this was over-hyped and will be a bust.

Posted January 17th at 11:39 AM
sno-x (westmo):

I just read the NWS weather discussion and they are just saying lake enhanced snow showers and flurries for the weekend after the front passes no real organized lake bands!

Posted January 17th at 12:17 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Can't get WKTV on my dish so I watch syracuse news at lunch - they are leaning towards Oneida County to get a little more tonite - calling for 4-6". Was wondering if Adam or Jill are seeing that trend?

Posted January 17th at 12:30 PM
Jeff:

wwa's posted for eastern ny

Posted January 17th at 1:05 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

From everything i've looked this event will impact western Oneida and Oswego counties the most. I think were talking 12-15 inches with a few places getting 18-20 inches.

Posted January 17th at 2:10 PM
ken:

becky,does that include utica,if not how much can we expect

Posted January 17th at 2:40 PM
mark (new hartford):

ken-no one really knos exactly where the band will set up, but we do kno that it will be a wnw or nw oreintation

Posted January 17th at 2:46 PM
ken:

thanks mark,at least that should help us.i hope.

Posted January 17th at 2:53 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

It is a little early to tell exactly how the bands will line up. NW winds will put the LES over western Oneida Oswego and northern Onondaga Counties. WNW it will be the southern Tug and Northern Oneida County. I think the winds will start out coming out of the NW then start shifting toward the W over time. The question is will the bands shift oscillate back and forth, or if they move slowly? If the bands stay over one area for a while the snow will pile up quite a bit. Utica will see get a least a few inches; the question is how much.

Posted January 17th at 3:10 PM
Becky ( West Leyden):

I have the wrong Direction; the band will shift E over time not W

Posted January 17th at 3:17 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

jeff, moderate snow down here now, working its way toward you shortly. looking at rar trends id say 3-5 inches is a possibility east of 81, with up to 6-7 inches in the catskills.

Posted January 17th at 3:27 PM
randy Vitullo:

Where is the input from Matt Lanza? He must be putting together another post.....

Posted January 17th at 3:32 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Mel: Do you have DirecTV? I just switched and they won't give me Syracuse with Boonville's zip.

Regardless, I'm hoping on the higher end for tonight.

Posted January 17th at 3:36 PM
Snow Fan:

Matt is away Randy ...it's up to Adam and Jill.....got that from post 119

Posted January 17th at 3:37 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Randy, Matt is out of town until tomorrow night, and Bill will be out through the weekend, hence the reason for no updates.

Posted January 17th at 3:39 PM
Ken ( South Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

all this speculation on the weekend, and not a though from a meterologist.....with matt away, and bill out for the weekend, i guess we wait for jill hopefully later today or tomorrow....we dont generally get much from adam it seems...I am suprised though that the nws is not even hinting at a major lake event while it has been talked up here for a week now.....seems a bit odd.

Posted January 17th at 3:41 PM
Jill Reale:

Hey guys, sorry for not updating everyone, I was on vacation in Florida until yesterday, so I am trying to play catch up with the weather. I'll probably update after the news.

Posted January 17th at 3:50 PM
Ken ( South Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

Welcome back Jill, any chance you brought some warmth home with u....LOL, I think by sunday morning u will wish u had. Looking forward to the updates.

Posted January 17th at 3:56 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The NWS likes to have its ducks in a row.sometimes they like to wait for a while before they issue anything. Forecasting LES is hard. first You need to figure out if conditions are likely for lake effect. after that look at temperatures on the 850 millibar chart and subtract that from and temperature of the lake. If the difference between the air and water temperature is 13 degrees of larger, conditions are ripe for lake effect snow. You also need to look at wind speed at different levels of the atmosphere, starting near the surface and going up to around 700 mb. it some directional wind shear before you can get a large lake snow event.

Posted January 17th at 4:23 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

Becky...and everyone else. here is an excerpt from the NWS forecast discussion...looks like they are calling for some decent LES..."Saturday night...Arctic front builds over the region with flow
favorable for les across northern County Warning Area. Went likely probability of precipitation here and chance
elsewhere.
Sunday...northwest flow with abundant low level moisture and
cap well above 700 mb will lead to widespread snow showers across
much of central New York. Many areas will pick up several inches
of snow.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
long term period has the forecast area in a broad long WV trough with very
cold air in place. Wide Open Lakes will provide plenty of moisture
and deep westerly flow will bring multiple fetches together over the
lakes. So...while forecast band position/S at this range is impossible...
there will be les through much of the period. Enhancing the les will be a
weak open short WV. This WV will bring widespread light snows
begining late Monday and continue into Tuesday.

Posted January 17th at 4:26 PM
Mel (Westernville):

I saw in the NWS forecast discussion that there is still a lot of uncertainty as to timing and location of LES, and a lot of time until things start so they are not raising any headlines yet.

Mike S- I do have Direct TV. Have had it for about 3 years now. Before that I had Dish Network for 6 years. Back then I dad the networks all out of NYC. Just had to tell them I could not pick up clear signals with an antenna - which was true. As soon as the local stations became available I got the Syracuse ones. I have always wondered if there was ever a chance the Utica stations would be available.

Posted January 17th at 4:30 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Let it snow!!!! The snow has begun here and it is in earnest......Snows like this for long and we will definately get more than 1-3 inches here!

Posted January 17th at 4:40 PM
Larry on Military Road:

Actually, there is no point in the Town of Salisbury that is the highest in Herkimer County. That honor goes to Ice Cave Mountain located on the Honnedaga Lake Quand (topo map). Summit is 2680'. It is good to remember that there is the Town of Salisbury, Salisbury @ 1220', and Salisbury Center @ 1073'. Obviously the Town of Salisbury has many various elevations;for example Boyer Lake @ 2001', Poplar Knoll @ 1607', Jerseyfield Mountain @ 2286' the aforementioned villages etc.
Josh, I'm wondering if you live in that area not far from Hedgehog Mountain ( James Rd ) Oak Mountain area? Just curious and you're right about much of Salisbury - Town of - being higher in elevation and geographically and topographically a snow magnet.

By the way, total snowfall measured at my location from 10/1/07 - 1/17/08 is 57.8". I'm located at 1020'. Regards.

Posted January 17th at 4:47 PM
ken:

i have a feeling this les event will be a bust.lately everything seems to be a bust.where i live in utica we never seem to get a good les event.who knows but i doubt it.

Posted January 17th at 5:42 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

This from the NWS forecast discussion

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUE TO BE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS
WHICH WILL USHER IN ARCTIC AIR...LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND WIND CHILL.
THE COLDEST AIRMASS SINCE JANUARY 2ND AND 3RD WILL DESCEND ON FA
FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

WIND CHILL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOME
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS RESULTING IN VERY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. WHILE
IT IS TOO FAR INTO THE FUTURE FOR HEADLINES...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION WIND CHILL IN THE HWO. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND ACTIVITY SHOULD STRETCH AT LEAST AS FAR EAST
AS THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NIGHT TIME LOWS IF THEY RISE AT
ALL.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS FA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SOME BREAKING UP OF CLOUD COVER AND
DIMINISHING WINDS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE VERY
COLD WITH MANY AREAS ZERO TO 15 BELOW ZERO. HIGHS ON MONDAY EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE THOSE ON SUNDAY BUT NOT BY MUCH...GENERALLY 3
TO 5 DEGREES WARMER.

ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO REINFORCE THE ARCTIC AIR.

BEST CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WILL BE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. FLOW MAY BE SUCH THAT SINGLE BAND LIFTS
NORTHWARD FROM MOHAWK VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MORE STEADY STATE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. TOO EARLY TO TRY TO FORECAST AMOUNTS AND INCLUDE IN HWO
AS ANY SLIGHT CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS.

Posted January 17th at 7:38 PM
Kate:

Bill, GOOD LUCK WITH YOUR WISDOM TEETH! Everyone's getting theirs out lately...did you go to an oral surgeon for yours? It sucked when I got mine out...okay okay sorry this is off topic haha but hope you feel better. and welcome back from Fla. Jill!

ANYWAYS, (sorry again)...Here in utica it's snowing a little and it gotten colder...hopefully we'll see some more snow!

Posted January 17th at 7:48 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

It's starting to snow a little harder, also winds are starting to get a little gusty SE 14-20 mph.

Posted January 17th at 8:23 PM
Jill Reale:

Moderate snow falling across northern Oneida county right now. Expect 3"-5" for those who live north of Utica (northern Oneida, north/central Herkimer, Southern Lewis), 1-3" for everyone else.

As far as the lake effect, still too far out to lay out any definate details, but the scenario is still looking pretty good. Organization will probably not start until after sunset on Saturday. Its going to be a long weekend for me.

Posted January 17th at 8:32 PM
LM (Whitesboro):

For post 154. Mike, did you ask DirecTV for a waiver? I asked last year and received one for CBS...to receive the national feeds. They don't always do it but CBS granted it because the CBS feed IS in Syracuse. I had them resubmit again because HD channels are not available yet from time-warner but you can possibly get them through DirecTV.

Posted January 17th at 8:59 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Some Dish Info: Dish Network can't provide long distance channels from NYC or LA anymore due to them breaking the law for so long, and not getting any waivers. I had a relative give Dish Network the Boonville zip, and Oneida is in Syracuse DMA. DirecTV is currently not accepting requests for waivers for channels due to the holiday crush. In my area, all I need is one from WWNY-TV, Watertown for CBS. WKTV and WUTR are not considered to be at least a class-b in this area, although they come in miles better. Hopefully they'll have Syracuse stations again soon. If Time Warner would provide the channels to the dish companies, they'd be able to provide WKTV, WUTR, WFXV, WKTV-DT2, and Watertown. I get every Watertown, Syracuse, and Utica station (except WSTM and WKTV-DT2). Kinda neat that I have 2 CBS and 2 ABC. I used to watch WUTR for ABC, but now I prefer WSYR-TV.

Posted January 17th at 9:09 PM
Jill Reale:

Anyone have any snowfall amounts/conditions?

Posted January 17th at 9:11 PM
Matt(Marcy):

pretty good sneet(snow/sleet pellets) in Marcy about 1/4 of an inch so far

Posted January 17th at 9:12 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Snowing at about 1/2"/hr here.

Posted January 17th at 9:35 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

light flurries here one inch on the ground. It's the wind thats the problem Currently SE 16 mph gusting as high as 22 mph. Roadways are starting to drift in.

Posted January 17th at 9:48 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Snowing lightly with about 1/4" so far.Just started sticking to the roads.

Posted January 17th at 9:52 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

I've got steady light snow here that is starting to cover the roads a little. Just a dusting of snow so far. Regarding the Lake Effect, I just haven't seen/heard anything today that gets me excited about a big snow for any of us, and specifically the Mohawk Valley. Basically I haven't got any new information since yesterday that would sway me one way or the other. Maybe somebody could enlighten me as to what the current thinking is along with their own opinions on the event.

Posted January 17th at 9:58 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

The latest NAM would be a good hit from the thruway north.It's now showing a more 270-290 flow as opposed to a 300 flow on its 12Z run.

Posted January 17th at 10:02 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Mike in Port Leyden - can u get cable there? That might be the difference - cable is not offered here. 1" of snow so far tonite.

Posted January 17th at 10:13 PM
LM (Whitesboro):

Mike that's wrong. I just had waivers resubmitted less than a week ago for ABC, NBC and Fox. Time -Warner doesn't offer HD channels because its the local affiliates that make that determination. I was denied by WUTR,k and WKTV about 18 months ago, but now its a different story that HD channels are available on the big networks IF waivers are granted. I know that 18 months ago the argument was that their reception was excellent and therefore the FCC gives them the right to deny waivers. For me now, this isn't the case. I want my HD channels.

Posted January 17th at 10:15 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

OK since we are off topic. I live in an area where I am not in the market for Networks through Dish TV. And Mike is correct Dish network longer lets any subscribers (if they give the correct address) waivers for any distant or local networks. I know because my brother works for them and I just went through this whole mess. After fighting with them I did get Fox and CBS through a sub company called All-American Direct for $2.99 a month each. I have a major fight with them because they took away my networks, so they came out and installed (free of charge) an over the air antennae. I am now wondering what the satellite companies are going to do when the analog gets shut off. Are they going to provide networks then since no one will be able to get them off an antennae? Even my brother is not sure.

Back to the weather......1.5 inches of snow here roads are still clear though!

Posted January 17th at 10:22 PM
JOSH (SALISBURY):

Lary on military rd, I believe oak mt. is in hamilton county, i was refering to the "salisbury center" area located on rt. 29 in herkimer county... The highest point in herkimer county is barto hill which is located just outside of salisbury center heading west towards middleville...

Posted January 17th at 10:24 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Any reports from the north?Wasn't sure if sleet was mixing in or if that was all heavy snow.Snow has ended here with only 1/2".I sure did like the 00Z run tonight in regards to LES.This would give the thruway some decent snows but would crush areas just north of town back into Oswego County.We also would be talking close to 30:1 ratios.

Posted January 17th at 11:35 PM
Bob ( Cooperstown):

@1" or so Roads are a little slippery Light snow falling

Posted January 17th at 11:51 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

26 degrees here with flurries. Picked up 0.50" so far. Looks to be a little more heading up from down towards the city. Rob, finally some news regarding the LES! I did read in Albany's forecast discussion that the lake snows could make it AT LEAST into the Capital Region! So I would assume that this band will have no problem penetrating east into my area, and Southern Herkimer county especially if it is able to reach to Albany. As the NAM showed, a 270-290 flow would nail a good section of the viewing area with at least a light to moderate snowfall I would think.

Posted January 18th at 12:08 AM
Becky(West Leyden):

We have picked up three inches of snow. So far no sleet has mix in. The snow has started to lighten up.

Posted January 18th at 12:28 AM
Josh (salisbury):

In regards to how far east the lake effect can make it.... I was on vacation in Killington, VT 2 years ago and they got 6" from lake effect off ontario during one of the nights... It actually salvaged the trip because the week before the trip it was warm with rain.. I guess what i'm saying is that it can, in some instances, make it much farther east than one would think...

Posted January 18th at 4:31 AM
Kurt (Cooperstown/Miami):

Jill...where in FL did you go? I have lived in FL my whole life (mainly in Miami). I have always hated the weather there, but I am up here now, for a while, and I love the current CNY weather! It is a very welcome change for me.

Posted January 18th at 5:54 AM
TOM (WEST WINFEILD):

What are the chances of southern Oneida and Herkimer county's getting a decent amount of lake effect saturday through sunday.

Posted January 18th at 6:50 AM
Andy Forestport:

Looks like 3 inches or so , NWS still not mentioning LES

Posted January 18th at 7:22 AM
Gina ( Trenton Falls):

Looks like we got about 2 inches of the white puffy stuff overnight....was snowing lightly a little while ago...but that has stopped....actually quite nice out there this morning.

Posted January 18th at 8:51 AM
Becky West Leyden):

We picked up Picked up 6 inches of snow yesterday and thru the overnight.

Posted January 18th at 9:30 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Nothing during the overnight here.Picked up 1/2" total.LES does not look good this morning.This is now looking like a Tug event.Maybe portions of N. Oneida county.So that's bad news for us.

Posted January 18th at 9:44 AM
B (Herkimer):

What does it look like for Saturday afternoon from Syracuse to Herkimer? Sounds like the LES threat is diminishing, is that the case?

Posted January 18th at 9:47 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Doesn't look good for anyone in the valley.Things could change but this looks like a "Becky Storm".

Posted January 18th at 9:49 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Hence the reason I was so skeptic. The South never gets Lake Effect (even with multiple bands) in the amounts that have been talked about. We picked up another 2 inches last night bringing this week up to almost 6 inches.

Posted January 18th at 9:50 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Any LES Saturday afternoon should be in Oswego, Lewis and southern Jefferson counties

Posted January 18th at 9:54 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Rob... "Becky Storm" I like that. ;)

Posted January 18th at 9:56 AM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Becky, then i noticed that the band should shift a little farther south late saturday night into Oswego, Southern Lewis, and northern Oneida counties!! You seeing the same thing?

Posted January 18th at 9:57 AM
Mel (Westernville):

I see in the NWS BGM discussion they are targeting NW Oneida County and extreme Northern Onondaga for the LES.

Posted January 18th at 9:58 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Justin.... That sounds about right. I Think areas like Redfield, West Leyden and Camden will see the bulk of it

Posted January 18th at 10:05 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Mel I saw the same thing. It looks like their won't be to much moisture, for any substantial LES to set up. I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Here is part of the Binghamton forecast disussion

A LONG TERM LAKE EFFECT EVENT SETS UP BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE
MODELS ARE NOW PROJECTING WINDS TO REMAIN MORE STEADY STATE, SO
INSTEAD OF DRAGGING THE BAND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, WE WILL PRETTY MUCH STICK TO
ONEIDA/MADISON/ONONDAGA.

THE LAPSE RATES ARE STRONG, AND THE EL IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR SUCH A
COLD/DRY EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO A STRONG "INVERTED V"
SIGNATURE ON THE T/TD PROFILE INDICATING VERY DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THIS IS GENERALLY A NEGATIVE FACTOR ON TOTAL ACCUMS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS FROM NORTHWESTERN
ONEIDA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTIES, BUT WITH SUCH A
LOW MOISTURE CONTENT FROM SFC TO BL I DON`T SEE A MAJOR EVENT YET.

Posted January 18th at 10:13 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

This for sure would crush Orwell/Redfield/Osceola...big time!There would be some 3-4' numbers up that way if the 270 flow stays as is.

Posted January 18th at 10:17 AM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Rob, can you please let me kno what model you are looking at that tells you the 270 flow. Thanks

Posted January 18th at 10:27 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Becky that discussion is based on 00Z guidance.The 12Z run clearly shows a 270 flow.This would easily warrant an LES Watch later today for Lewis/Oswego and possibly N.Oneida.This would also clobber the Old Forge area as well.I hope we see a more WNW flow later tonight but that's how it looks now.

Posted January 18th at 10:30 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Rob... your right, I just look at the 12Z. This could be a major event up here.

Posted January 18th at 10:36 AM
B (Herkimer):

Rob, Good to me is no snow so I guess it does look good for me. thanks

Posted January 18th at 10:42 AM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

I've been looking at the WRF-NMM model from PSU. It turns out some good news to me. If you click "here:http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/etaloop.html, you'll see that on Sunday it's saying that in the morning the band will be only making it's way into West Leyden or so, but by 1pm, it'll be all the way to Old Forge!

It doesn't show that much southward movement.

Posted January 18th at 12:12 PM
Andy Forestport:

NWS has no watches at, all makes me wonder on the BUST word...

Posted January 18th at 12:40 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

What a surprise, another opportunity for snow down the Mohawk Valley GONE! Although, NWS Albany still states "WINDS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE OF A PROFILE THAT SUPPORTS LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO EXTEND WELL EAST...THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY...INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT." PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MAY REQUIRE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS IN WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. So this is what still confuses me is that one NWS office is saying one thing while another is saying something different. If the winds changed that much in less than 12hrs, i'm sure they could shift right back. We need Matt back!!!

Posted January 18th at 12:48 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

If the LES would track through the Mohoawk Valley, it'd end up in Mass. figuring it's straight enough to get anything done. Makes me wonder if Albany knows where the valley is.

I'm glad the models seem to be putting the snow right on me.

Posted January 18th at 1:34 PM
MG (Point Rock):

The Berkshires are in Massachusetts.

Posted January 18th at 1:37 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

I Think the LES advisories will go up late tonight or early tomorrow morning, Some of the Models are still not in agreement as to where the bands will set up. However it still looks like a 270 flow is the best bet. if that happens the whole west to east lake is open. Oswego, N Oneida, Lewis and Herkimer Counties will get it hard. The inch per hour rate in those areas could be high ( 3-6 per hour) if the Winds stay out of the west.

Posted January 18th at 2:02 PM
Andrea (Utica):

Michael...i think you're right. Just doesnt seem the same with Matt gone. No updates! :( We need snow and we need it yesterday! Doesnt have to be 18-20". A simple 6-9" would be great! Any thoughts on the coming week for snow potential?

Posted January 18th at 2:31 PM
Jill Reale:

Hey everyone, I just got into work and have started to look at the data. LES looks very good for sat night and into sunday for areas directly east of Lake Ontario (270 wind flow). These areas would include N. Oneida, Southern Lewis, and Central/Northern Herkimer. I will have more updates as I investigate more. As for snowfall amounts, like with any other LES event, its still too early to pinpoint exactly how much, thus I do not feel confident yet to post a snowfall map. For those who are wishing for Matt to be back, he is covering my shift tomorrow morning.

Posted January 18th at 3:00 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Lake SNow Watch issued for Northern Oneida County

Posted January 18th at 3:00 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Yeah Andrea, I'd take 6-9" with a smile! There are several shots at snow right through next weekend, but it is just nuisance type stuff (1-3" maybe) as of right now. Lake Snow Watches should be issued for Northern Oneida County shortly. Lake Snow Advisories may be needed tomorrow for Southern Oneida and Onondaga according to NWS. All we need is a shift of about 10-15 degrees to get that band further south.

Posted January 18th at 3:05 PM
Andrea (Utica):

Ok so at least its not a definite no. I can live with a "maybe". Need to get the sled back out, trailering is getting old already!

Posted January 18th at 3:13 PM
Jill Reale:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
326 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2008

...AN ARCTIC BLAST WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CENTRAL NEW YORK...

.AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY AND BRING IN
SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR THIS SEASON INTO THE REGION. THIS FRIGID
AIR WILL PASS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO AND DEVELOP
BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO MONDAY.

NYZ009-190430-
/O.NEW.KBGM.LE.A.0001.080119T2100Z-080121T1200Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-
326 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN NORTH TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING AND SETTLE IN OVER
NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THIS MOVEMENT OF THE BAND SHOULD CAUSE THE
SNOW TO BE INTERMITTENT AT FIRST...THEN BECOME STEADIER AS THE BAND
SETTLES IN.

THE SNOW WILL BE VERY HEAVY AT TIMES...AND WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING...THE VISIBILITY WILL DROP NEAR ZERO MAKING DRIVING VERY
DIFFICULT. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE WATCH PERIOD.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS TO PRODUCE 7 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW IN 12 HOURS OR
LESS...WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TRAVEL.I F YOU ARE
PLANNING TRAVEL IN THE WATCH AREA, STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO ALL-HAZARDS OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...OR
VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BINGHAMTON.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

Posted January 18th at 3:28 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

There looks to be a good connection with the upper lakes Sunday night into Monday morning.This would connect Lake Superior into Georgian Bay right into the North Country.There could be some incredible snowfall rates during this time of 3-5"/hr!

Posted January 18th at 4:06 PM
Jeff:

I hope we can squeeze this band alittle more to the south, lets pray to the snow gods, nothing else worked out this winter

Posted January 18th at 4:09 PM
Alex(Old Forge):

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Watches, Warnings & Advisories
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
One product issued by NWS for: Old Forge NY
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lake Effect Snow Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
349 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2008

...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS..

NYZ032-033-190500-
/O.NEW.KALY.LE.A.0001.080119T2100Z-080121T1100Z/
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATWELL...BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...
MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD...OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR
349 PM EST FRI JAN 18 2008

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WATCH FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY
USHERING IN VERY COLD AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AS
THE VERY COLD AIR MOVES ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE
ONTARIO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 9 INCHES OR
MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF ROUTE 8.

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE
AMOUNT OF SNOW IN ONLY A FEW HOURS. VISIBILITIES AND DEPTH OF
SNOW CAN VARY GREATLY...IMPACTING TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. CONTINUE

Posted January 18th at 4:10 PM
ken:

of course we here in utica get missed again.am i right.we do not get hit at all or maybe a couple of inches?

Posted January 18th at 4:46 PM
Andy Forestport:

Ken all you have to do is move 25 miles north....

Posted January 18th at 5:07 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Ken there looks like there is some shortwave coming through late Sunday.This would intensify the snowband like I said above.
The GFS would indicate this band making it down here.But the NAM keeps it north of us.We'll just have to wait a few more runs to see.

Posted January 18th at 5:23 PM
Matt (HP):

Jill,

Im sure people wishing Matt back isnt anything against you. We definitely Like you too!!! :-)

Posted January 18th at 6:51 PM
Bob Jones:

Jill,

Don't listen to these idiots.

-Bob

Posted January 18th at 7:36 PM
Karen ~~Westmoreland:

Thanks for the update Jill...glad to see you back... !!

Posted January 18th at 7:41 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Jill, I did not mean to imply anything against you at all. Matt just really gets into the discussions about the lake effect and seems to know alot more than the NWS, lol! You guys are all a great help to all of us on the blog!

Posted January 18th at 8:41 PM
Jill Reale:

No offense taken guys:) New entry is up

Posted January 18th at 9:10 PM

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