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We've received some emails and the tone of some of the bloggers are also to that effect. Folks, what you're seeing is a January thaw. This is normal. It's a little earlier than we usually see, but the only thing abnormal about it is how strong it is (I think Mother Nature took performance enhancers or something). Basically, you're seeing the same damage that would be done in a normal January thaw, just over a much shorter period (hence the Flood Watches).

Regarding the Warmth

First off, tomorrow's record of 59 degrees is likely going to fall. Tonight's record maximum low temperature of 37 degrees is probably going to be demolished as well. The greatest damage to snowpack is done when the combination of nighttime and daytime temperatures is above 40 degrees. In most instances, this should be the case tonight and tomorrow, into tomorrow night. This is why a Flood Watch is in effect for Herkimer and Fulton Counties especially. Specifically on the West Canada, East Canada, Fulmer, Steele and Moyer Creeks, we need to be aware of the potential for ice jams. You need to treat this like a springtime situation, as opposed to a wintertime one.

Then Comes the Rain

A strong cold front will move through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. With it will be some rain, and I am keeping the chance of thunderstorms in as well. Rainfall amounts should be under 3/4" everywhere, so in terms of flooding concerns, there really are none. Even with the snow/ice melt, we should be able to handle that much rain.

And the Wind!

That front will blow through here Wednesday morning. Behind it, we feel the effects of what was once the major west coast storm. Winds will increase Wednesday afternoon. We could see gusts of 30-40 mph at times, so while it shouldn't be as serious as the pre-Christmas wind event, it does look to be a bit noticeable.

Thursday-Friday

A quiet day is expected. While Wednesday's rain may end as some snow flurries, we're keeping snow out of the forecast. Temperatures will only be 40 or so on Thursday, as we turn cooler...still above normal though. Another storm will pass by to our west. I really didn't want to include snow in the forecast Friday, because with a storm track to our west, we usually never see snow...and given what kind of warmup we're coming out of, I'm even less inclined to believe we see snow. Still, we see enough cool air on the models to have to include the chance of rain beginning as snow, especially in the Adirondacks. Should we see significant rain Friday, minor flooding problems could creep up on us, so stay tuned.

Weekend

Colder air begins to build back in over the weekend. There are some questions as to exactly how much cooler it gets, but we should get temperatures back very close to normal by Sunday. With that, we should see cold enough air and a somewhat favorable flow for some limited lake effect snows. Nothing significant right now, but it's worth watching.

Then, next week, things could get a little more interesting. The NAO, which measures blocking in the Atlantic Ocean, goes neutral. This is a good sign. Should that have stayed positive, as it is now, the threat for cold air would be severely limited. The other good thing is that the PNA, which measures blocking in the Pacific, goes positive...which means warmer weather should return to the west, along with colder weather to the east. At the same time, the active La Nina pattern will continue, with another storm forecast to develop in the Southeast. There is a lot of conflicting data as to where this one could end up. Our current thinking is that it will be far enough south and east of us to prevent anything significant. This would mean chilly, but dry conditions. However, should it shift a little further north, we would have a chance of at least an accumulating light snow, if not a bit more, and temperatures closer to normal (upper 20s). We'll see though.

Beyond that...just looking at the GFS ensembles, it appears that while significant cold is not likely...significant warmth is definitely not likely. I would suspect temperatures to stay within a few degrees of normal. This is great news I think for winter lovers, because we're continuing to build lots of cold air in Siberia and the Arctic (temperatures of -20 to -60 degrees!). At some point, a chunk of this will likely end up sneaking into the northern part of the country..obviously not as cold. But you have to think that we have definitely not seen the last of winter.

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Comments

Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah this is quite depressing for going into the second week of January.Hard to believe I was -11 Thursday morning and then hit 59 degrees today.That's a 70 degree swing!So far 11 twisters have touched down over the last several hours in the midwest.

Posted January 7th at 6:55 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

This is a massive outbreak of severe weather for January.Interesting as these storms are holding after daylight hours.Just saw some aerial shots from Wisconsin where there was some big time damage.Webster county MO just got hit very hard as well.

Posted January 7th at 8:43 PM
Matt Lanza:

Looking for seasonal snow totals. If you posted in the last entry, repost if possible. I'm updating those this evening.

Posted January 7th at 8:47 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I have 39.5" for the season here.Still have a very light snowpack.Matt could we expect dews in the mid 50's tomorrow.Just wondering as I saw Michigan within that range.

Posted January 7th at 9:02 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Matt - 63.6" here - still at 42 degrees - been stationary all afternoon & evening

Posted January 7th at 9:09 PM
heather(german flatts):

Matt went to Herkimer about 6pm and the river still has ice on it no flooding near the South Washinton St. bridge the small water source next to the river where they have the banks..
Randy my national grid bill came the other day 800.00 we found our addition has no insulation beings we just bought the house.One more note Matt I don't know who to report this to but there was a stabbing in Herkimer tonight my nephew was stabbed a couple hrs ago and is in Saint E,s having surgery..

Posted January 7th at 9:16 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rome just spiked from 38 to 43 with a southeast wind and the advance of fog.

I could see dews pushing 50 tomorrow Rob...definitely. Anything is possible, especially with sunshine.

Posted January 7th at 9:18 PM
Matt Lanza:

Heather: I hope your nephew is okay. I passed it on to our newsroom. Thank you for the report too.

Posted January 7th at 9:20 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Hey Matt- Seasonal Snowfall here stands at 47.5" As of right now the temperature is now at a whooping 46 degrees. The snowpack is all but gone except for banks and in the woods. Should be a great spring like day tommorrow which is good because I have about 6 errands to run!!!

Posted January 7th at 9:26 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

52" inches so far this winter. Not a bit of grass is even close to showing up this way. Heavy snowpack remains and is holding its own against the warmth. 35 degrees here.

Posted January 7th at 9:33 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Temps are soaring now.I'm up to 53!

Posted January 7th at 9:36 PM
anthony:

Matt, we still have about 4-5" on the ground here in N.Marcy, unfotunately I do not have a running snow total.....my laptop with all my data crashed a couple weeks ago......however Randy in HP and I always have very very close numbers.....(kinda makes sense, HP is just up the street).....

Just looking at some patterns......looks like a cold and mid-end of Jan with a cold Feb......hopefully the lake will respond.... something it hasnt had much of a chance to do yet this year with the wind shifting to almost due N everytime we get a good cold streak.

Posted January 7th at 9:36 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: Syracuse is at 59 after hitting 64 (previous record was 50 degrees!).

Anthony: The end of the month does indeed look cooler than I think we were thinking coming into this week. So some good news there. Whether the lake responds or not, we'll see. Unfortunately, it seems like once you get a year going where the lake can't respond (winds are too due N), it tends to happen almost all winter. We'll see though.

Posted January 7th at 9:41 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Just hit 56

Posted January 7th at 9:50 PM
Mike(Little Falls):

I noticed the tornado watches in Michigan....are we expecting anything like that tomorrow?

Posted January 7th at 10:09 PM
Bob (Cooperstown):

Temp here 40 degrees. Could have sworn we heard 2-3 rumbles of thunder about 15 minutes ago enough so that my son got out of bed. Matt, is that possible?

Posted January 7th at 10:11 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I was wondering if there was going to be any left overs from this squall line approaching Detroit for the overnight.Seems to be moving pretty fast.Up to 58 degrees now.

Posted January 7th at 10:11 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

wow it is warm out there...if i didnt know better id swear it was a september night. im so used to coming out of work to a frozen car encased in frost and ice, it was weird to just have dew on it tonight. im sure all the snow will be gone here tomorrow, lets hope for a fast rebuilding of the snowpack!!!

Posted January 7th at 10:24 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

NAM is showing the cold air catching up to the storm in the North country.I wonder if it will be enough for a period of heavy snow up there.

Posted January 7th at 10:26 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: Really not thinking that we're going to see snow that fast on Wednesday. Possible, sure, but I'm not putting any money on it.

Bob: No thunder in our area. Radar is silent.

Mike: Not thinking we'll see much severe weather. The squall line tonight should turn right and drop southward...leftover showers will lift through Ontario and may clip the North Country by morning. As for severe weather tomorrow, I'm not too concerned at this point. Conditions for favorable severe are dropping south toward the Ohio Valley.

Posted January 7th at 10:35 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

how is the snow potential looking for fridays storm, are the models trending east at all?

Posted January 7th at 10:41 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Just tied my high of 59 degrees.Mike the NAM is showing a coastal low maybe.Hope to see the same with the GFS.I think the CMC was hinting at this a few days ago.

Posted January 7th at 10:43 PM
Matt Lanza:

Friday's storm is not snow. Models have been rather consistent with this one all along, and if anything they look a smidge warmer. GFS certainly came in warm. I'm not anticipating much, if any, snow on Friday...but by Monday...that's the storm I'm interested in seeing if it trends further north and west to get us into the snow.

Posted January 7th at 11:13 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

One thing I noticed with any of the coastal lows this winter is that early on, the models always had the storm further out to sea not affecting us, but as we got closer to each event, they always seemed to trend back north and west to give us a good shot of snow. Lets hope this plays out the rest of the winter. One good thing with this warm up is that some of the snowbanks will melt down a little so we have more room for some more snow. Last week I was running out of places to pile snow. I know that what we lost we will replenish within the next few months.

Posted January 7th at 11:26 PM
Matt Lanza:

Temperatures are absolutely ridiculous right now. 60s west of Utica. It's even 51 degrees in Lake Placid right now. The eastern Mohawk Valley has been spared for the most part. I honestly couldn't tell you why temperatures are so out of whack right now...we have 30s in Canajoharie, but 50s in Little Falls. Usually with east winds, we see both those spots cooler. I think a lot of this is localized. Areas with stronger winds are warming up and mixing the warmer air down. Areas with light winds have seen temps cool off dramatically. It's going to be an interesting night.

Posted January 7th at 11:27 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Snowpack is gone here.I can actually here it melting.Lots of big snowbanks left though.60 degrees at 11:30.

Posted January 7th at 11:30 PM
Matt (HP):

Heather,

This may not be the place for it but when you find out how your nephew is doing please post.
My families best wishes are with your family. Hopefully everything will be okay!

Matt,
I have a weather station up now, I dont have the rain gauge out but I may try too.
I do have the anamometer out though. So Ill try to get you updates from HP!

Posted January 7th at 11:45 PM
Ted(Ilion):

54.7 here in Ilion

Posted January 8th at 12:28 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

167 reports of severe weather so far.35 reports of tornados(2 fatal).This is the biggest outbreak in January since 1999.61 degrees at 12:45.

Posted January 8th at 12:46 AM
Matt Lanza:

Temperatures continue to be all over the place and a function of wind. South and west of Rome, just about everyone is 55+. North and east...if winds are calm, mid 30s to mid 40s. If winds are light, mid 40s to low 50s. Incredible.

As an aside, the 00Z GFS showed our Monday storm basically in the same spot...far enough away to prevent much. But I still don't trust that system. Much more tomorrow.

Posted January 8th at 1:17 AM
matt (hp):

winds calm and 51 degrees

Posted January 8th at 2:37 AM
MG (Point Rock):

Season snow total here 72.5 inches.
10.5 inches on the ground Tues AM.
In reference to the comments about the snow at Syracuse airport in the last thread, it's interesting to note that at 8 AM this morning, Syracuse is 60 degrees, while Rome is 40. Yesterday's high temp in Point Rock (Northern Oneida Co.) was only 44.

Posted January 8th at 9:03 AM
Matt Lanza:

Since last night, the temp at Rome has been bouncing all over the place. I'm not sure if the automated sensor is working properly to be honest. There were times with overcast conditions and light winds that the temp plunged to 40. Then there were times with fair skies and calm winds that the temperature went up to 50. Something is a little off there. At any rate, Syracuse is at 60 still. Temps should begin to crank up over the next few hours.

Posted January 8th at 9:35 AM
Jules (Ilion):

61 degrees here in Ilion at 9:45 am

Posted January 8th at 9:47 AM
Jodi:

61 degrees in Remsen!!! 10:00 a.m.

Posted January 8th at 9:56 AM
Andy (Forestport):

I wonder if 70 is possible?

Posted January 8th at 9:58 AM
Matt Lanza:

Utica's all-time record high temperature in January is 68 degrees, set back in 1930 I think. I don't know if we can officially get there, but we can certainly make a run for it.

Posted January 8th at 10:09 AM
Mel (Westernville):

50 here and steadily climbing with sunshine and blue skies!

Posted January 8th at 10:18 AM
Andy (Forestport):

time and temp says 68, I don't know how accurate that is

Posted January 8th at 10:24 AM
Matt Lanza:

Rome has spiked to 62 degrees. Our record for the day is gone. Now we set our sights on the all-time January record of 68. In addition, the Flood Watch has been expanded to include Oneida County, for the potential for minor flooding.

Posted January 8th at 11:02 AM
Matt (HP):

Yea mine says 66, I think because of the angle of the sun. Its just catching my thermometer.

Posted January 8th at 11:43 AM
Gary (Schuyler) at work in Syracuse:

Andy, the "time & temperature" is taken in downtown Utica. I find that subtracting 3 degrees from that makes it more accurate for the general Utica and suburban area. This emperical result has come from years of bumping it against other area temperatures and various other indicators. WRVO in Oswego (translator WRVN Utica) used it back in the early 1990s until I made them aware of the inaccuracy. They switched then to the Oneida County airport. When the airport moved last year, they started using it again, and again I contacted them about the inaccuracy. They again switched and use weatherunderground now, and whichever local weather station used, has to be more accurate than the bank's reading. I've used it too on my own radio show (and still do), even when we used to broadcast from the Mayro Bldg which is just across the street from the "gold dome", but of course subtracted the 3 degrees.

Posted January 8th at 11:51 AM
Matt Lanza:

Up to 64 now!

Posted January 8th at 11:59 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Been going back and forth between 51 & 53 degrees the past few hours.

Posted January 8th at 12:55 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rome is up to 65 degrees now, clearly cementing this as one of the warmest January days on record.

Posted January 8th at 1:00 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I have 68 degrees here at 1PM.Still a few piles of snow around.

Posted January 8th at 1:01 PM
Matt Lanza:

Syracuse is up to 69 degrees now. The all-time January record there is 70 degrees, set in 1967 and 1950.

Posted January 8th at 1:03 PM
Jules (Ilion):

69 degrees in Ilion at 1:11pm

Posted January 8th at 1:12 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Shot up to 58 here the last hour - neat to watch on the graphing thermometer.

Posted January 8th at 1:54 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Talk about a difference in temperature, i'm sitting at 49 degrees here at 2:45 p.m.! Last night around midnight I was between 34 and 38 degrees. I was wondering if there was a problem with my thermometer, but I just stepped outside and it sure doesn't feel any warmer than what the thermometer is saying. This thermometer I have has always been VERY accurate. There is no snow below it and it is placed on the north side of my house about 6.5' feet off the ground. Not a bit of sun hits it all day. About an hour and a half ago when the sun was out, I hit 55 degrees. The only thing I can think of that is causing such a difference across the area is that I still have a fairly good snowpack on the ground where I am. Again, no grass is showing so the snowpack may be preventing us from seeing higher temps. As a very rough guess, I would say we still have around 6" inches on the ground.

Posted January 8th at 3:08 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

I just got off the phone with my mother in Little Falls and she said that everybody was arguing about what the temperature was. I guess that some were saying 57 while others 67! I'm fluctuating between 44 and 47 degrees here in town. It is just unbeliveable the difference in temperatures across the area, just ridiculous! My weather bug for Herkimer says 64 degrees. That is a difference of almost 20 degrees in just 15 miles!

Posted January 8th at 3:24 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

WIND ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT for everyone except Herkimer County eastward. 30-35mph winds with frequent gusts to 55mph.

Posted January 8th at 3:29 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Don't think it is your snowpack - you have about the same as here. I had the same thing yesterday - stayed at 40-42 degrees most of the day into the night. Rose a little this morning to 50 and stayed there for several hours and then spiked up between 12:30 and 1:00 to 58. Must just be the way the wind and sun are affecting you for mixing. Down to 5" of snowpack here. Still snow on the roof etc. but the drireway only has a few patches of ice left.

Posted January 8th at 3:29 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mohawk Valley areas, especially north and east of Little Falls are having issues getting the warmth in. Temperatures are in the 40s and 50s toward Albany, but 60s to near 70 west of Little Falls/Herkimer.

Posted January 8th at 3:33 PM
randy vitullo:

I attempted to post this earlier, but couldn't. Temperature in Holland Patent (with the snow pack) was 53 at around 1. At the same time, Utica was at 64. What a difference a snow pack makes.

Posted January 8th at 3:41 PM
Mike(Little Falls):

A few hours ago it was about 70....I was walking out in a tank top!...It feels like May...just weird seeing ppl in shorts when there's still snow on the ground....

Posted January 8th at 4:52 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

we made it to 60 here today. were now down to 49. our snowpack is around 14 to 16 inches.

Posted January 8th at 6:11 PM
Matt Lanza:

If anyone has high temperatures on their home thermometers, we'll be making a map for 11 showing today's highs. Post them by 8 PM if possible. Thanks! We already have the ones posted so far.

Posted January 8th at 6:22 PM
Wayne (Marcy):

Hit 66 here along the canal at 1:30PM

Posted January 8th at 6:32 PM
Karen ~Westmoreland:

at about 2:30 this afternoon our thermometer showed 68 degrees.

Posted January 8th at 6:58 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

hit 63 here. it was intersting to note that on my way to school this morning i noticed an area which can be describe as a hollow or sheltered valley, and this area(.5 square miles in size with about 10 house in it) actually had 100 percent snow coverage with 3-5 inches of snow still on the ground!! this was at a time when all but the highest elevation and most sheltered woods had zero snow. the only explanation i could think of was that it got much colder at night in this sheltered valley while it stayed in the upper 40s to 50s on the hilltops.

Posted January 8th at 7:26 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, any new thinking on mondays eastcoast storm?

Posted January 8th at 7:27 PM
Justin (Little Falls):

While I was driving today, the temp. on my vehicle said 67 while I was in Herkimer, while in Little Falls, it was only about 55, I know its not accurate, but you could definitly tell a difference walking around however in both places.

Posted January 8th at 7:48 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike/Others: New entry is up.

Posted January 8th at 8:32 PM

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