Is it Finally Our Turn?

Posted February 14th, 2010 by Jill Reale. 44 comments

While we are dealing with some light lake effect snow (as well as some sneak attack freezing drizzle), many of us are focusing on what could be our first "snowstorm" in quite some time. Our last significant snowfall was on January 3rd, when we received 8" of snow in Utica. Like most of the time, tracking of the storm is still up in the air. There are basically two tracks that this storm could take between Monday night into Tuesday. The first track (NAM) has the low go from the southern portion of the Ohio Valley to the Delaware Bay and up towards Cape Cod and eventually Maine. This scenario would bring the heaviest snow to the interior areas of NJ, CT and MA.  The second track (GFS) has the low developing in the Ohio Valley then tracking to NYC-->Connecticut-->Massachusetts. This track is closer and more west than the first track, so the heaviest snow would be in the Catskills, Poconos and Berkshires as well as the Southern Valleys. The Euro, which is an outlier right now, brings the low to New Jersey to the Atlantic Ocean, basically leaving us with little to no snow. So what is going to happen? Well snow will arrive to areas to the south of Utica Monday night and continue to fill into the region Monday night into Tuesday. As of right now, the heaviest snow looks to be just southeast of our viewing area, down in the Catskills, where 6"-12" could fall. While there is a Winter Storm Watch for Chenango and Otsego Counties, snowfall amounts (as of right now) don't look to be part of the warning criteria, with the possibility of some accumulating snow (ballpark 3-6") As for the Mohawk Valley, the farther you get from the low, the less snow. We will see widespread snow, but it will be on the light side. Again this information can change, especially due to the uncertainty of the tracking of the storm. As we have said before, trend is your friend and the trend this winter is for storms to track to the south.

On an interesting note, from the National Weather Service:

February 12 marked a very rare event in the US as all 50 states documented having snow on the ground at the same time. The latest winter storm to push across the southern portion of the US brought up to 20 inches of snow from Texas eastward to South Carolina. Hawaii was the last state to report evidence of snow on the ground, and it wasn’t much, but a few patches of snow remained on a steep north facing slope of Mauna Kea, the highest mountain peak in the state.  This snow was left from an event back in November, but will likely be gone within the next few days. 

It is not clear if this has ever happened before in the US, though it likely has.  Detailed snowfall records for many areas only go back around 30 years. According to the Associated Press, The Global Snow Lab at Rutgers University is researching to find if this has ever happened before.

 

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  1. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    I noticed in the Utica OD the Low record temp was Feb.14th 1979 recorded as
    -18*. Here in O.Falls on that date it was probably -26* We were right in the middle of a very cold week. This might have been the day that Old Forge had -52* and their power was out.

    Posted February 14th at 9:44 PM

  2. Rick Tamland:

    Any LE on the back side of the storm Jill?

    Posted February 14th at 9:49 PM

  3. Deb in Hartwick:

    season snowfall total = 44”
    (1500’)

    Posted February 14th at 9:54 PM

  4. Scott( HP):

    Out to sea…...

    Posted February 14th at 9:56 PM

  5. Chris ( HP Weather Oberserver ):

    Had a total of 2.25 inches of snow total for today.. 3/4 inch since last measurement.. 52.25 inches for the season so far.. maybe more fluff tonight with LES band? have to see in the morning

    Posted February 14th at 10:30 PM

  6. Mrboom:

    3-6 inches isnt a big storm .. nothing major it will be to our south yet again … close ..but no cigar… Sigh..

    Posted February 14th at 11:46 PM

  7. Matt:

    Just so were clear there is snow on the mountains in Hawaii? I tried to find a snow cover map for there and couldn’t.

    Posted February 15th at 12:23 AM

  8. Matt:

    Crap, nevermind, missed that part.

    Posted February 15th at 12:24 AM

  9. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like the GFS let us down again. Getting moderate snow right now. Looks like maybe 2” fell here during the overnight.

    Posted February 15th at 4:49 AM

  10. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    It’s Monday morning. Post your snowfall totals and I’ll update the last today at 11am. Thanks!

    Posted February 15th at 5:27 AM

  11. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Looks like the Euro was onto something here. Pay attention to the track of the low on the forecast models. The storm tracks from Long Island to the Cape. The best places to see heavy snow from this would be Albany to Western New England (especially the Berkshires, a mountain range in Western MA).

    In order for CNY to get the brunt of a storm, the storm needs to track near or across the Connecticut River Valley. This storm looks a bit too far east (at least according to the latest model runs). There’s still some time for things to change, but it’s not looking good for a big storm here. We will get something out of it this time though.

    Posted February 15th at 5:43 AM

  12. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    1500’ 65.1” snow for the year

    Posted February 15th at 7:04 AM

  13. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Seasonal Snowfall 49.8”

    Posted February 15th at 7:31 AM

  14. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    64.5” for the year

    Posted February 15th at 8:10 AM

  15. Barbara (Laurens):

    Seasonal snowfall is 39”

    Posted February 15th at 8:32 AM

  16. MG(Point Rock):

    Season total is 89.0” as of 7:30 this morning. It’s been snowing moderately since then. 1.5 inches new overnight, it seems much denser than usual lake-effect.

    Posted February 15th at 8:50 AM

  17. Mel (Westernville):

    Picked up 2” of new snow. Seasonal total at 67.9”

    Posted February 15th at 9:00 AM

  18. Amy (Salisbury):

    Seasonal Snowfall to date: 61.75

    This one is accurate.
    (My last total off by 5 inches? Sorry!)

    Posted February 15th at 9:29 AM

  19. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    We got__1.75___ inches of fluff snow in the driveway this morning. I guess maybe it was LES.

    It seemed good to see the Sun again for a couple minutes.
    The temp. here is__33*__ right now.

    Posted February 15th at 10:01 AM

  20. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    Me, of all people don’t have a total snowfall.
    Wish I did though.

    Posted February 15th at 10:02 AM

  21. Becky (West Leyden):

    Picked up three inches of LES from yesterday and the overnight. Seasonal Snowfall stands at 117.325

    Posted February 15th at 10:09 AM

  22. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Seasonal total is 57.2”

    Posted February 15th at 10:24 AM

  23. Mike:

    Bill or Adam or Jill. My wife and kids will be going down to the Binghamton area. When would be the best time for them to make the trip. This afternoon or Tuesday Morning?

    Thank you

    Posted February 15th at 10:34 AM

  24. Chris ( HP Weather observer ):

    Picked up another 1.25 inches overnight and this morning. some flurries around still. 53.5 inches for the season and counting thanks !!

    Posted February 15th at 10:45 AM

  25. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Latest GFS still keeps the storm away with only .25 of liquid…3-5 inch storm my call…

    Posted February 15th at 10:50 AM

  26. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I don’t think it even gives us that. We might end up with flurries. What else is new.

    Posted February 15th at 10:56 AM

  27. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Seasonal snowfall list updated For getting 10.5” in February, we really don’t have much to show for it in the snowpack.

    Posted February 15th at 11:10 AM

  28. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Mike,

    It’s probably better for them to travel today if she wants to avoid snow. Tomorrow will feature light snow on her drive…not enough to be a problem on the main roads and highways.

    Posted February 15th at 11:20 AM

  29. cedarville :

    so how much snow are we gonna get tonight and tomorrow

    Posted February 15th at 11:21 AM

  30. Becky (West Leyden):

    WRF shows the snow into southern NY and northern PA tomorrow morning and getting up here early to mid afternoon. The GFS and the NAM are very similar with the track. However the GFS is showing more precipitation of the two. All the models are showing a NW flow on the backside of the systems. So there will be two or three days of LES flurries. The flow will also pull down fairly cold air out of Canada; so it looks to stay fairly cold for the rest of February. Looking out it looks like the Carolinas could see something over the weekend. The models are hinting at two Big storms one around the last part of February and the other first part of March. both would impact the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast.

    Posted February 15th at 11:25 AM

  31. Becky (West Leyden):

    Bill, nice touch showing Baltimore and Washington DC. It really puts this winter into perspective

    Posted February 15th at 11:30 AM

  32. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Cedarville

    Snowfall forecast for tonight and tomorrow Hot off the press.

    Posted February 15th at 11:30 AM

  33. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Thanks Becky. It’s been quite an amazing winter in other spots of the country. You are right about the pattern over the next few weeks. I can’t remember the last time a pattern stayed like this for this long.

    Posted February 15th at 11:33 AM

  34. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The lake snows this morning really don’t want to quit. Picked up a very fluffy inch of snow so far today. The bands should shift north over the next few hours.

    Posted February 15th at 11:40 AM

  35. roady:

    86.5” here in the hills of Plymouth for the season.

    Posted February 15th at 11:41 AM

  36. Mike:

    Thank you Bill

    Posted February 15th at 12:37 PM

  37. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    LOL! I’m dead last in snowfall on the list, but we have a much deeper snowpack than most other areas. I’ll have an updated snowfall total in a minute.

    Posted February 15th at 2:54 PM

  38. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    41.3” inches for the seasonal total. 1.75” inches since midnight here.

    Posted February 15th at 3:04 PM

  39. Rick Tamland:

    Any updates on the “storm”? Blog has been very quiet tonight.

    Posted February 15th at 11:27 PM

  40. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Forecast looks on schedule, with very very light snow moving into Southern Chenango and Otsego Counties. While the storm looks wimpy right now, it is projected to strengthen tomorrow. But don’t look for anything that spectacular around here, just light snow Tuesday morning and early afternoon.

    Posted February 16th at 12:05 AM

  41. Mrboom:

    Wait lemme be the first to say it …. south of us then out to sea right? can we please earse those words …. :)

    Posted February 16th at 1:02 AM

  42. mrboom:

    ok too late .. spell correction .. ERASE.. thank you

    Posted February 16th at 1:04 AM

  43. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Dry air is killing us this morning. Light snow is finally starting to fall. Snowfall totals likely to be between 1-3” for most of CNY. Updating the snowfall map now.

    Mrboom, I prefer the term “wide to the right” for this one. It’s not actually heading out to sea for a change (New England gets a good storm today).

    Posted February 16th at 4:25 AM

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    Posted January 6th at 8:15 PM

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