Is Trend Your Friend?

Posted February 7th, 2010 by Jill Reale. 64 comments

Just a quick update on a potential "storm" on Wednesday. I put storm in quotation marks because as we have seen time after time this year, a low pressure system looks to hit Central NY 5 days out, totally misses us to the South or out to sea. Low pressure is developing in the Midwest and will travel to the east on Monday and Tuesday, ending up in the Ohio Valley. At the same time, a secondary low will form near the coast, causing the 1st low to weaken. The question is, where will this storm track? The latest models are trending a glancing blow for Central NY, with the heaviest snow in our area to be in Chenango and Otsego Counties, but even they might not see major snowfall. Washington D.C. area already has Winter Storm Watches issued for Tuesday/Wednesday, as the models have them and points north (Philadelphia and possibly NYC) with the heaviest qpf.  We have a couple things going for us.  1. The high pressure that will be over us on Tuesday  will not be as strong come Wednesday, compared to the high pressure on Friday/Saturday that completly kept the "Snowmaggedon" well to our south. 2. The Euro keeps the track further north (Low off of New Jersey Coast) while the GFS stays to the south and east (Low off the coast of Delaware). Yet we always say "trend is your friend". The jet stream is still to the south and has been staying to the south for quite some time. Storm after storm has missed Central NY to the south or out to sea. In addition, with the combination of negative NAO and negative AO (Arctic Oscillation) we are in a cold, dry long range pattern with the storms continuing to be pushed to the south. I am not going to put out any numbers right now, but we will be keeping an eye on the storm for the next several days.

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  1. Jim (Whitesboro):

    If this one does not hit us then I am just ready for a nice thaw and warm up. Starting to get the outside home improvement and golfing itch. Jill, when will we have a good idea as to how this will turn out, I commute 77 miles each way every day so i like to plan ahead. Thanks.

    Posted February 7th at 9:06 PM

  2. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    48 inches so far for the season.. Some light snow flurries here today and occuring now. Wednesday storm is intresting to watch but remains to be seen.. Have had alot of close calls this year

    Posted February 7th at 9:57 PM

  3. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Watches are spreading across PA. Looks like The GFS made a minor shift to the NW. Too close for comfort!

    Posted February 7th at 11:01 PM

  4. Justin (Whitesboro):

    GFS did make a trend further NW! I hope this trend continues for tomorrows run, we are getting closer!

    Posted February 7th at 11:16 PM

  5. Rob (Whitesboro):

    We’ll see. It gives BGM about 10”. It spits out 1.75” for Philadelphia. They’re under the upper level low too, whith much lower thickness values. That would probably mean 20:1 ratios for them. That’s big time snow…on top of the 28.5” that just fell on them the other day!

    Posted February 7th at 11:23 PM

  6. vinny:

    rob or justin do we have any chance at this storm?yrdt

    Posted February 7th at 11:36 PM

  7. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Seasonal Snowfall at 37.03” inches.

    Posted February 8th at 12:08 AM

  8. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Vinny: If we do get a chance, it will not be blockbuster snow’s…if the trend comes more NW we could maybe deal with 5-10 in…but the chances are slim as of now, we will see!

    Posted February 8th at 12:09 AM

  9. Becky (West Leyden):

    Seasonal total 114.325

    Posted February 8th at 12:42 AM

  10. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    It’s Monday! Post your season snowfall totals and I’ll have an update by 11am. Thanks.

    Posted February 8th at 4:21 AM

  11. Hahaha:

    Justin I thought you assured us on Friday that we were getting a foot???

    FAIL

    Posted February 8th at 4:50 AM

  12. randy Vitullo :

    The NAM gives us a qpf of .5 or so, but pulls the brunt of the precipitation east of Philly, NYC. The GFS crushes Philly and the rest of the southern gang, leaves us with around .1 to .25 or so qpf. What about the Euro?

    Posted February 8th at 6:12 AM

  13. Clifford (Garrattsville, Otsego):

    As of this morning.

    12Z EURO...00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS ALL SHOW AN AXIS OF HIGHER QPF
    ALONG I-81 FROM BGM S THRU AVP...THEN DOWN THRU ERN PA TO PHL AND
    SRN NJ COICIDING WITH THE ORIENTATION OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE.
    QPF/S IN NE PA/SC NY RANGE FROM .75 TO 1.4 ON THE GFS...TO BETWEEN
    .5 AND .75 ON THE NAM TO ARND 1 INCH ON THE 12Z EURO. THE HIGHEST
    QPF IS IN NE PA AND THUS I CUD SEE UP TO 12 INCHES OR SO IN NE PA
    AND ARND 7 INCHES IN SC NY. HPC WWD GRAPHICS SHOW 6-8 INCHES IN SC
    NY AND FROM 8 TO 14 INCHES IN NE PA. HENCE WILL ISSUE A WINTER
    STORM WATCH FOR NE PA AND SC NY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 7 INCHES OR
    MORE OF SNOW FROM 21Z TUE TIL 03Z THU.

    FARTHER N INTO NC NY…CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAT WARNING SNOW
    AMNTS WILL OCCUR. THERE WILL BE A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MENTIONED
    ABV...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT ENUF MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
    REACH FAR ENUF N INTO NC NY FOR A LONG ENUF TIME TO LEAD TO WRNG
    CRIT SNOWS. THERE STILL IS TIME FOR THE DAY SHIFT TODAY TO
    REEVALUATE AND POTENTIALLY EXPAND THE WATCH NORTHWARD IF NEEDED.

    Posted February 8th at 6:25 AM

  14. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The winter storm watch zone posted by the NWS give you a great idea where the heaviest snow could potentially fall. Another look at probablilities of heavy snow (12”+) from HPC . Notice that the big cities (NYC, Boston) are under the gun for midweek. Hard to believe this could happen three times in a row!

    Posted February 8th at 6:45 AM

  15. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    46.2” for Westmo seasonal snowfall.

    Posted February 8th at 7:51 AM

  16. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    59.5” so far for the winter in Richfield

    Posted February 8th at 7:53 AM

  17. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    59.4” for the season, another fluffy 1.5” last night from LES. Looking more and more like we might get some snow finally from a synoptic system this week!

    Posted February 8th at 8:10 AM

  18. Barbara (Laurens):

    Nickel and dime stuff down here mostly for the past weeks, with a little more snow last night… seasonal total now 34”

    Posted February 8th at 8:23 AM

  19. MG(Point Rock):

    Season total = 85.0”

    Posted February 8th at 8:24 AM

  20. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Lake effect has a large “fluff” factor this morning. Looking to pick up perhaps an inch or two of the white stuff today.

    Posted February 8th at 8:34 AM

  21. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Seasonal total is 52.2” here. Light snow falling right now with just a dusting last night.

    Posted February 8th at 8:50 AM

  22. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    We already got a little over 2” of the fluffy stuff here this morning. I think that is the fluffieist snow that I have ever seen.

    I don’t think you are picking this up on your radar, but that’s a maybe. it’s still snowing here too.

    It seems to be a bit warmer here today__18*__. I don’t have a total snow fall for ya.

    Posted February 8th at 9:20 AM

  23. Amy (Salisbury):

    Seasonal Snowfall is up to 57.75”. Thanks to all the nickel and dime snow! Crossing my fingers for the big one!!!! lol!

    Posted February 8th at 9:25 AM

  24. Brian (Lairdsville):

    Season snow total 50.5 in.

    Posted February 8th at 9:37 AM

  25. Becky (West Leyden):

    Well it looks like NYC and Long Island will get the worse of this one. The big difference from the wed storm and this one will be the snow ratios around 25-1 . NYC up through southern Mass. could see 24-30 inches. Because of the high winds this storm will be a bigger mess. It looks like we could see 1-3 inches for the Valley

    Posted February 8th at 10:14 AM

  26. Becky (West Leyden):

    That should say the weekend storm not the Wed storm

    Posted February 8th at 10:16 AM

  27. Mel (Westernville):

    Season total at 64.2”

    Posted February 8th at 10:28 AM

  28. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    It’s still snowing here, that fluff snow.

    I notice the GRIFFISS RADAR isn’t picking it up either.
    I will measure again latter

    Posted February 8th at 10:56 AM

  29. Rob (Whitesboro):

    It’s been snowing steadily here too. Looks like the GFS and NAM traded positions on this run. Doesn’t look like we’ll solve anythinig today.

    Posted February 8th at 11:00 AM

  30. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Looking at the model runs as of recent…I do notice a trend in the evolution of the storm systems. This is a complex storm, with one parent storm (the upper level low) and the coastal storm (secondary low). In my experience, the secondary low typically outperforms the upper low unless the upper low is quite deep (strong). It’s not clear how this transfer of power will take place. If the upper low holds on just a little longer, then that heavy snow line will edge just north enough where parts of our area (Route 20 south) will get a period of heavy snow. If this doesn’t happen, the storm runs out to sea and we get very little.

    The other thing that really bothers me is the actual storm track. Ignoring the QPF on the models, the center of the coastal storm crosses near the “benchmark” (a name given to the point 40°N lat 70°W long). That’s not going to do it for heavy snow here in CNY. We have to rely on the upper low, to get our snowfall here…which is not going to produce the kind of storm to bring us “back to average”.

    Posted February 8th at 11:48 AM

  31. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    It’s still about 48 hours out, and I suppose things can change and shift around, so the next few model runs will be important to see how this storm plays out. I don’t see any reason why the watch boxes would change at this point. The worst still looks south.

    Posted February 8th at 11:51 AM

  32. Scott (HP):

    Look at all the models you want. My uneducated guess says. “OUT TO SEA!”

    Posted February 8th at 12:25 PM

  33. Scott (HP):

    Look at all the models you want. My uneducated guess says. “OUT TO SEA!”

    Posted February 8th at 12:25 PM

  34. Scott (HP):

    Look at all the models you want. My uneducated guess says. “OUT TO SEA!”

    Posted February 8th at 12:25 PM

  35. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Scott,

    I’d imagine the odds of three storms in a row hitting the Mid Atlantic and not CNY are very low (yet here we go again). At some point, our luck has to change. Unfortunately the weather patterns aren’t going to budge anytime soon.

    Posted February 8th at 12:30 PM

  36. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Bill, why is this storm having such a problem making it farther north. The last storm was obvious, with strong high pressure and a screaming polar jet. I don’t see that with this system. Is it just bad luck?

    Posted February 8th at 12:31 PM

  37. randy Vitullo :

    The NAM is being slightly generous with the QPF for us; .5 to .75?

    Posted February 8th at 12:36 PM

  38. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Randy,

    What the NAM gives, the GFS takes away. Call it a wash.

    Rob,

    It’s all about that coastal low. It’s robbing the energy of the upper low as both move east.

    Posted February 8th at 12:41 PM

  39. Deb in Hartwick:

    Season total = 41”

    Posted February 8th at 12:50 PM

  40. Deb in Hartwick:

    Season total = 41”

    Posted February 8th at 12:50 PM

  41. Becky (West Leyden):

    it would help if the block in Canada would go away. Does anyone know of any years the Mid Atlantic states have seen this many blizzards in one season?

    It’s too early for any predictions, but, It’s beginning to look like the SE seaboard might be getting the next winter storm.

    Posted February 8th at 12:56 PM

  42. Regis (Utica):

    Will any warning or watches be issued for us? Looks like only for the South?

    Posted February 8th at 1:16 PM

  43. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Total snowfall to date: 62.1”

    Posted February 8th at 1:23 PM

  44. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Regis we’re not going to see any Watches up this way. You need d evidence of 7” or more to qualify for a Watch. The models give us .20”-.50” liquid…. which only results to 3-6” of snow at best.

    Posted February 8th at 1:35 PM

  45. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    NWS extends watch box slightly farther north…to Otsego and Chenango County. Must be putting more stock in the NAM rather than GFS.

    Posted February 8th at 3:29 PM

  46. Adam Musyt:

    18z run of the WRF/NAM is just off the presses and it has completely backed off on what the 12z run showed. Canadian, UK, GFS all show just a bare graze on their 12z incarnations from the storm.

    Right now it still looks like most of CNY will only see a glancing blow from this. We’ll wait and see what the 00z runs show later tonight. But right now I wouldn’t bet on much more than a few inches of snow for the Valley.

    Posted February 8th at 4:12 PM

  47. Dave(Lairdsville):

    I’ll settle for a few inches of snow…It’s better than nothing… What does that do for the lake effect senario on the backside?

    Posted February 8th at 5:40 PM

  48. Adam Musyt:

    Becky,

    1995-96 was a banner year for snow in the Mid-Atlantic. DC had 40”+ that year, although they have already eclipsed that amount this year. I can’t remember a year where so many large storms passed Upstate NY to the south, though.

    This storm was particularly nasty across Pennsylvania.

    Posted February 8th at 6:31 PM

  49. Vin:

    Are luck is not going to change. If it does its going 2 be 2 late and its not going 2 matter anyway. Bring on warmer temps now.

    Posted February 8th at 6:58 PM

  50. Becky (West Leyden):

    Thanks Adam, I’ve been looking back through old records, I can’t find any winters were we missed so many big storms.

    Posted February 8th at 7:28 PM

  51. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah this is getting rediculous. Even if we get our NW trend tonight, I doubt we get into warning criteria. I can never remember a winter without having a winter storm warning. We haven’t even had one for mixed precip yet! I’d be very happy with 5” of snow from this. That would be a record for me this season.

    Posted February 8th at 8:20 PM

  52. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    I second that Rob! We are well into February and the sun angle is getting higher by the day so while we still have a month and a half of winter left, time is running out and anything that does fall will compact/melt alot quicker than it would a month ago.
    Now lets move on to Spring and Summer. Here is my prediction: Frequent cutoff lows will plague the northeastern US for much of the spring and summer months with well below normal temps and record amounts of rain, mud, tomato blight, mosquitos, frost well into June, etc. Even though i’m making this all up, how many of you want to bet thats how things will play out, lol!

    Posted February 8th at 8:49 PM

  53. randy Vitullo :

    Michael, you are probably right about that. The trend for spring and summer during the past 7 or 8 years (exception being 2005) has been wet and below normal for temperatures. I wouldn’t doubt that plays out. I would be shocked if it didn’t. THERE IS ONE THING AGAINST THAT: With our pattern for cold and dry persisting for most of the winter, a warm shot has to occur. I would say that spring will be warmer than normal, with a wet summer to follow.

    Posted February 8th at 9:29 PM

  54. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    Now that it has stopped snowing I am calling the total for the day 3.5 inches.

    That last half inch of snow we got was a bit heavier than fluff and it settled the fluff snow right down.

    The temp here right now is__20*__

    Posted February 8th at 10:10 PM

  55. Justin (Whitesboro):

    NAM in and again just some light snow…Lets hope the GFS has something different, very unlikely :(

    Posted February 8th at 10:23 PM

  56. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Usually the RSM is somewhat similiar to the GFS...and it’s not looking good. It’ll be interesting to see how much DC/ Balt get tomorrow night. They were still having big time problems there today…with about 50,000 still without power.

    Posted February 8th at 10:29 PM

  57. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Any thoughts on possible LES after the storm departs, especially this weekend? It appears the 850mb Temps will be cold enough for some activity…

    Posted February 8th at 11:09 PM

  58. Adam Musyt:

    00z runs of both GFS and NAM/WRF are both in and neither look good for snow enthusiasts in CNY. The NAM model actually shows very little precipitation in our area with the GFS just painting 0.06” liquid equivalent for Utica between Tuesday evening and Wednesday evening. NAM/WRF model shows 0.04.”

    Model interpolations for Binghamton for the same 24-hour time period are 0.39” and 0.32” – so there will be a sharp gradient between no snow and a few inches of accumulation. We’re going to continue to watch for any changes – but for now it still appears that significant snow will be south of Central New York.

    Posted February 8th at 11:17 PM

  59. Adam Musyt:

    57,

    Probable that we see some LES. Unfortunately it may be a case of feast or famine. 850 mb temps are cold enough for the lake effect – but remember that the same cold dry air mass that is going to give us the shaft, so to speak, with the synoptic snow…is going to be around as the storm departs. LES would have a much easier time getting going with some lowlevel moisture.

    If the meat and potatoes of the synoptic event does indeed stay south as current model solutions suggest, we’re not going to have much lowlevel moisture to begin with. One thing going for it is that the wind flow looks to be northwesterly for a considerable amount of time after the storm departs – and it’s only going to take one little short wave trough, or mini front, to kick off something. It’s too early to pinpoint when or how much though, at this point.

    Posted February 8th at 11:30 PM

  60. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    This is just amazing! I can’t remember a winter with so little snow. Heck, when we had the warm spell we couldn’t even get significant rain!!! Can it get any worse??? Can any of you guys remember anything worse than this winter?

    Posted February 8th at 11:37 PM

  61. Matt (CB):

    Once again this new storm looks HUGE and it looks like it is imposible to miss us.Time will tell.I don’t mind winter but I do hate extreme cold with no or very little snow. If memory serves me,the winter of 79/80 was something like this.could be wrong but don’t remember much snow that yr.

    Posted February 9th at 5:35 AM

  62. Farmers Almanac for Feb:

    February 2010
    8th-11th. Light snows/flurries. 12th-15th. Very stormy. Blizzard New England, 1 to 2 feet snow possible. Snow also to Mid-Atlantic Coast, with 6”-12”. 16th-19th. Fair. 20th-23rd. Snowstorm sweeps in from west; heaviest accumulations in upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire. 24th-28th. Fair, then unsettled.

    Posted February 9th at 5:41 AM

  63. randy Vitullo :

    Looking ahead to next week, the GFS shows CNY receiving more snow than we have in awhile. Checking the 60 hr precip on day 6, day 8 day 11, day 13 ( I think) each show light green to dark green; no yellow. So, maybe three inches here, four inches there, 2 , 4, etc.,........... Maybe we will get it that way. The current fluff stuff just isn’t doing it for everyone. It looks more organized next week and the week after. Nothing big though. What is your take WKTV on the long range GFS precip maps?

    Posted February 9th at 6:14 AM

  64. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Randy,

    Looks like a cold, light lake effect type pattern for the end of the week. It’s a pattern similar to yesterday, with a pretty good bet we’ll see a few inches each day. Unfortunately it’s the kind of snow that may look good on paper, but will not be significantly meaningful to the snowpack across the area.

    What do I mean by that? Yesterday we picked up 0.8” of lake effect snow, but you wouldn’t know that by looking outside this morning.

    Posted February 9th at 7:31 AM

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