Weather Blog | Ice Storm For Some... Snoozer for Others...

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Before we go anywhere, just keep in mind that we cannot predict school closings and we can't tell you what it's going to do in your backyard.

Rather than regurgitate the details of the forecast, I just want to go over a couple issues with the storm.

First, click here for the snow/ice map.

Second, for the intricate details of the forecast, click here to read the discussion. I strongly recommend you watch the video clip included with the forecast, as I take you region by region, explaining what's up.

Obviously, it's an intricate map. That's because this is an intricate storm. I will caution you... there is no more difficult forecast than this. So there is the potential we bust on the high side of things here. I will lay that out there right now.

What you might want to know....

Start time: 7-10 AM...probably closer to 9 AM.

Now, here is why I am concerned. Temperatures south and west of Utica have been painfully slow to drop tonight. We went mid teens, and we're not going to get there. The temp is stuck at 25 right now and is going nowhere fast. With clouds thickening up, this will only help slow the temperature drop. North and east of Utica, I have higher confidence in our forecast verifying. I do think snow amounts will be on the lighter side, but the ice is the big story with this storm. So while everyone should see some freezing rain, it may be quicker to change to plain rain than we think south and west of Utica. But, north and east, I really think the forecast for 1/4" to 1/2" is in tact.

Just for informational purposes....

1/4" ice doesn't cause significant problems. It creates messy roads, primarily on the backroads. 1/3" begins to cause more significant problems. 1/2" is when you get the serious problems with trees and powerlines.

So just some thoughts on this. I'll post more in the comments as I can.

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Comments

Gina Trenton Falls:

Hey Matt,
Looks like the weather team has its hands full on this one. Now your saying in my area could be up to half of inch of ice.
...will it also be windy with the projected ice accumulation, which we all know would knock out power, in other words should I start filling water bottles, no power no water in this neck of the woods/.

Posted January 31st at 9:03 PM
Justin (Little Falls):

Wish we could have just an old-fashioned snow storm, its the end of January for crying out loud!

Posted January 31st at 9:07 PM
Kevin (whitesboro):

Wind shouldn't really be an issue with this storm.

Posted January 31st at 9:07 PM
Kevin (whitesboro):

Yes! We really need an old fasioned storm!

Posted January 31st at 9:09 PM
Matt Lanza:

There is a period of very strong winds coming through a bit off the ground tomorrow evening, but I really think they will get locked up aloft. I would suspect 10-20 mph winds with a few 30 mph gusts, primarily on hilltops. But the winds do not worry me right now.

Posted January 31st at 9:10 PM
AMY(Piseco):

They have started to close schools already in Fulton County. I am in Hamilton County, and I guess we are supposed to get alot of ice. I guess I can assume no school tomorow for the kids.

Posted January 31st at 9:21 PM
ERIC:

MATT FOR SCHOOL CLOSINGS. I KNOW THE STORM MAY COME IN 8-9AM IF THERE IS SCHOOL WHAT DOES THE AFTERNOON LOOK LIKE 2PM UNTIL 430PM.

Posted January 31st at 9:25 PM
Bailey:

Hi Matt - What should we expect in the way of snow/ice accumulation directly south of Utica more precisely the West Winfield/Bridgewater area?

I�d also like to mention what a great job youre doing. I�ve been watching this station for more than 20 years and your forecasts have been the most accurate Ive seen.

Posted January 31st at 9:32 PM
Matt Lanza:

Eric: That depends on where you live, which I laid out in the 2nd link in the entry.

Bailey: Thank you. I have you pegged on the map for around 1/4"...looks like more of a nuisance in S Oneida, SW Herkimer, Otsego, Madison and Chenango than anything.

Posted January 31st at 9:44 PM
Pat: (South Utica):

I've been reading this blog for over a year but have been hesitant to comment since I am a untutored in terms of knowledge about meteorology. As a teacher in the Whitesboro district, however, I believe I am able to recognize brilliance in others, and Matt Lanza ia the best thing to happen to WKTV in a long time. He has enviable ability to take a complex subject matter and make it understandable to others who are not experts in this area. He generates an interest in the forces and sheer wonder inherent in nature, yet others dare to criticize him for not being perfect. I can only hope that the management of WKTV recognizes the jewel they possess and reward him according for the increased viewship and interest in this blog. What happened to the post of Chief Meteorologist vacated by Amanda Gabeler? Now that Matt is engaged to a New Jersey girl, he may decide to seek a position closer to his and his fiancee's roots with a bigger market share and a greater salary. Think about that before you take your cheap shots. Do you really believe the greater Utica area will get someone of Matt's caliber again?

Posted January 31st at 9:52 PM
Cindy (ilion):

BRAVO Pat for that piece. You echo the words that most of us here think of Matt. He has been a wonderful asset to all of us on this blog,and WKTV, and we hope to never lose him!!! We have learned to ignore the people that are nasty. I think you are a coward when you can't even sign the comment with your name.

Posted January 31st at 9:57 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The temperature here is 7. with the temp this low already, it looks like were in for significant ice. I hope don't get over a half inch. That would be dreadful. At lease it will not stick around like the Great Ice Storm of 1998 or the 2003 ice storm did. the ice storm of 1998 was in a strong El Nino year. Ice Storms in my opinion, sit near the top of the list for weather events that show how vulnerable our society and infrastructure are to natural disruptions.

Posted January 31st at 9:58 PM
Jenn:

You guys, please refrain from talking about school closings....Matt or the rest of the weather team have no control over that...

Posted January 31st at 10:09 PM
Matt Lanza:

Pat and Cindy: Thank you. I sincerely appreciate that.

Becky: That concerns me that you're so cold. We're doing great from Rome-Utica south...with mid 20s...less ground that we have to make up tomorrow. But the Adirondacks and N Country are cold tonight, colder than expected, and that could create some issues tomorrow with you changing over, if at all.

Posted January 31st at 10:21 PM
Cindy:

At 25 here, I guess that is around where you figured we'd be right Matt?

Posted January 31st at 10:27 PM
Sarah:

Jenn-As for the last few school closing entries, it doesn't say they were asking about the closing itself. They are asking about specific weather conditions in the afternoon hours.

Posted January 31st at 10:31 PM
Jimmy DeFazio(New Hartford):

Glad to see that you swithched Utica into the up to a half an inch of ice area, I would appreciate a snow day and a good storm.

Posted January 31st at 10:42 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

22 degrees here.Dewpoints are still in the lower teens down this way.Actually in Glenhaven the dew is at 7.I'd imagine we would fall several degrees once the precip starts.

Posted January 31st at 10:42 PM
Donnie (Milford):

Pat and Cindy: I agree with both your comments. Matt IS everything you say....and more! The rest of the weather team deserves credit, too.

Posted January 31st at 10:43 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Matt... I think were in real trouble up this way and the Adirondacks. This is setting up to be very significant.

Posted January 31st at 10:43 PM
Brian:

Temperature at Old Forge is five degrees. It is going to be hard for the temperature to rise above freezing.

Posted January 31st at 10:47 PM
Cindy (ilion):

Donnie...You are right the whole WKTV weather team is great, I think we all think of Matt right off the bat as he seems to blog more often, or maybe it just seems to be more often when I am on.

Matt....I think the schools are going to have a tough call tomorrow with the storm starting after they get there. I'm just hoping that all lets up and the roads can be clear for the ride home.

Posted January 31st at 10:52 PM
Matt Lanza:

The one saving grace might be that precipitation does not look too terribly impressive right now on radar, and the NAM has subsequently backed down a bit and gotten stronger with the dry slot. It only dumps about a half inch liquid before the back end of the storm. This is a bit lower and could be a good sign if the GFS follows suit. We'll see.

Posted January 31st at 10:52 PM
Gina ( Trenton Falls):

Bravo to matt and the rest of the weather staff...this blog is a must when upstate NY weather gets cranking.

I know i check it first thing in the morning and last place at night..and in between also.

thanks for all the hard work!

Posted January 31st at 11:00 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

GFS has been hitting ROC hard the last several runs.Big difference from the NAM.Colder too.

Posted January 31st at 11:05 PM
Matt Lanza:

GFS also nailing a dry slot over us. This will be interesting to see pan out. This could be very similar to the December storm...heavy precip for a few hours early, then a break, then a heavy back end...but in this case it will be rain and a little snow.

Posted January 31st at 11:06 PM
DF:

Traveling to Oswego late tomorrow afternoon. Does anyone know what to expect up that way?

Posted January 31st at 11:35 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

21.7 degrees here. 24 degrees in Herkimer with a dewpoint of 15. Matt, I think what you have on the map above for us and the Adirondacks is perfect. You also have backing from NWS and a few other media outlets as well. Even the Mohawk valley area looks good. VERY good map! Actually, I should say a very bad map,lol because if we get over 0.30" inch, I can almost gurantee I won't have power. What I would like to point out is that it could take less amounts of ice to cause significant problems, because we could have a few inches of snow before the changeover. That snow would stick to trees (pines and spruces especially) and add a little more weight to the limbs before the changeover to ice, therefore what normally would take a half inch of ice to cause sig. tree damge would only take a quarter to a third of an inch, from what I was told by a national grid worker this evening in the grocery store. He said he was planning on a long day tomorrow, lol!

Posted January 31st at 11:36 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

i would bet money binghamton gets downsloped again off the catkills ,cutting back significantly on our qpf.

Posted January 31st at 11:47 PM
mike m( binghamton):

latest cmc would give us several inches of snow on backside of storm, gfs alos indicating this potential, to a slightly lesser extent.

Posted January 31st at 11:57 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I know that backside sure does look good.Hopefully we can get a few inches out of this mess.If not we got two storms to monitor.Theres one on Wednesday that looks to be close and another bigger system around day 9.

Posted February 1st at 12:03 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Fulton County already has 5 school closings. I think they are closing because they don't want people to be stuck out on the roads during the onset of precipitation. Ice is just nothing to take a chance with, and given the fact that most schools have only used 1 snow day so far, I think it would be well worth it to close tomorrow, and I honestly would be shocked if any in the valley and points north stayed open given the potential.

Posted February 1st at 12:07 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

The temperature is starting to go up. Were up to 9

Posted February 1st at 12:29 AM
Matt Lanza:

Storm Accelerating?

Couple considerations as I head to bed. The start time on this is sped up...unquestionably. Precip is racing northeast, and frankly, I wouldn't be shocked if we squeak out most of the nasty stuff before Noon tomorrow. I would bank on a much earlier start time than the 8-10 AM originally forecasted (should have gone with my gut on that one from yesterday). I would say between 6-8 AM. Dry slot is absolutely flying north as well, and I think we may get into that for much of the afternoon. Bill will have the latest in the AM, but I think this is something to watch overnight.

Posted February 1st at 1:14 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Did anyone see the Sun pillar this morning.

Posted February 1st at 1:51 AM
Matt ( C B ):

Was 21.3 at 11:00 pm and now up to 24.1 at 4:30 am with a steady easterly wind.Went out to see what it was like and couldn't beleive how cold it felt.Hope my ride to Clinton goes well.
Matt L, you need to get the others on yor team to post and take part in this blog more often.History with the weather team at Wktv shows that it is likely you will be leaving us to go off and get Married and move on to bigger and better.When is the Wedding date so we can all start planning now...LOL
Great forcasting from the team and some of the Bloggers appear to be very talented also.
Have a safe friday everyone..

Posted February 1st at 4:35 AM
Laurie-Westmoreland:

Well, I woke up about 4:00 am to nothing. It is now about 4:40 and the wind is picking up. No rain or snow yet. I was beginning to think it was going to pass

Posted February 1st at 4:40 AM
Tom ( Richfield Springs):

5:00 AM East wind but no precip. Hope it all stays rain, we don't need the ice.

Posted February 1st at 5:28 AM
Bill Kardas:

Depsite the radar showing snow, it's already transitioning over to sleet and freezing rain in southern NY.

Posted February 1st at 6:29 AM
Gina ( Trenton Falls):

Nothing yet here.....wind is picking up nicely.

What is a Sun Pillar?

Posted February 1st at 6:34 AM
Bill Kardas:

That dry slot moving in the Ohio River Valley will be an issue to contend with as we head into this afternoon. If this slot doesn't fill in, the precip will shut off this afternoon for a period of time. This could potentially lower the ice accumulation.

Posted February 1st at 6:35 AM
Gina ( Trenton Falls):

Binghamton has just issued a Ice Storm warning....better get where u are going or stay home....not looking good.
Glad I have the day off today...filled my water jugs for the dogs just in case of heavy icing and power lines down...wood stove is cranking...ready for the worst up here.

Most important everyone drive safe, Slow down, the life you save may be your own!!!

Posted February 1st at 6:49 AM
Dan:

Way to keep the school closings posted on your website...Have to go to syracuse stations or od to find out

Posted February 1st at 7:04 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Well Good morning all. It has begun and just about everything down here is shut down. Good call. The Southern part of the county is all ready a mess according to work (911) and Ice Storm Warnings are now issued. The rain/sleet has just began to pick up in intensity here. Doesnt look like too much of a snoozwer here now considering the amount of precip on the radar and the fact that the northern portion of the dry slot has already filled in. I am home today so as long as I have power and satellite (internet) I will keep you up to date.

Posted February 1st at 7:11 AM
ella:

BRING IT ON! NO SCHOOL! NO SCHOOL!

Posted February 1st at 7:16 AM
Brad (Oneonta):

Ice storm warning here now. Sleeting for about 1/2 hour now. Looks like fun today.

Posted February 1st at 7:19 AM
John from cold brook:

Why is there no current list of school closings??? It is 7:30 and the radio stations seem to know what is closed and what is not, so why the delay at wktv?

Posted February 1st at 7:22 AM
Jeff- West frankfort:

It's getting pretty darn cold and nasty here this morning. Kinda glad the kids don't have school! I'm also secretly hoping that we get some serious ice, considering I've been laid off from a certain telephone company since September! Lots of outages means I get back to work sooner and considering I've been working the overnight shift at a local convienience store, I can't wait to get back on those telephone poles! Hope everyone makes it through this safe and sound.

Posted February 1st at 7:33 AM
Bob Jones:

How hard is it to turn on the TV and watch for the closings? You seem to have the mental capacity to write on this blog, should be able to figure that one out too.

Posted February 1st at 7:38 AM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Got some moderate freezing rain here at 7:30 am. Windows are already glazing over. Temp sitting at 24.7.

Posted February 1st at 7:39 AM
Tony CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):

7:30am and nothing here as of yet.

Posted February 1st at 7:43 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

We have actually transitioned over to large snowflakes (figured it must be evaporational cooling considering the low dew) mixing in with the freezing rain. Roads still ok, but things are glazing here already.

Posted February 1st at 7:45 AM
Vin:

Just look a little bit before you complain and you can find the school closings on line
http://www.wktv.com/weather/schoolclosings

Posted February 1st at 7:46 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

24 degrees here with a dew point of 10.Just started to frz rain/sleet.This looks ugly.Dry slot looks like it's slowly filling in.

Posted February 1st at 7:49 AM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Now a "hard rain" of freezing precip with some odd snow flakes floating around. Temp fell almost one degree in 10-15 minutes.Roads are quickly becoming glazed with ice.

Posted February 1st at 7:53 AM
Jim in North Utica near Schuyler Line:

Hard sleet and wind with a few flurries mixed in here now.

Posted February 1st at 7:55 AM
randy Vitullo:

The radar has shown snow all morning for Holland Patent. So far, however, nothing has fallen from the sky. It is currently 8 AM. On another note, did I see Matt Dinardo in a commercial for a local business or does he have a twin?

Posted February 1st at 7:56 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Going to go get my car work done now. will give you an update when I return on current conditions and the roadway conditions.

Posted February 1st at 7:59 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Changed over to all snow now.Getting breezy as well.

Posted February 1st at 8:02 AM
Patty:

Started with sleet about 10 mins ago in the Village of Herkimer now it is just snowing 28 degrees here

Posted February 1st at 8:05 AM
Bruce:

Windy and snow flurries in Floyd. Has been for past 20 min.

Posted February 1st at 8:05 AM
Karen ~Westmoreland:

Some very gusty winds here and snowing....

Posted February 1st at 8:06 AM
Wayne (Marcy):

Mixture of snow, sleet & ice pellets falling here in Marcy with a temp of 27.

Posted February 1st at 8:08 AM
Karen ~Westmoreland:

getting a snow/sleet mix here now....

Posted February 1st at 8:10 AM
Jim in North Utica near Schuyler Line:

Very windy now with heavy mix of sleet and snow coming in sideways.

Posted February 1st at 8:16 AM
Debbie:

Light snow falling in rome

Posted February 1st at 8:18 AM
Jeff- West Frankfort:

Steady sleet/ freezing rain now

Posted February 1st at 8:19 AM
Josh (at work next to Culver Ave in Utica):

Moderate snow showers falling with some sleet mixed in. Looks like all snow right now. Coming down pretty good. Looks messy out there!

Posted February 1st at 8:29 AM
jamie:

complete white-out here in oriskany. can't even see out the window!!!

Posted February 1st at 8:32 AM
Gina ( Trenton Falls):

Snow and wind started about 10 minutes ago here. Looks like the roads are getting slick fast here.

Stay safe all!

Posted February 1st at 8:37 AM
Gary (in Schuyler):

To Randy,

Matt Dinardo wrote in this blog sometime in December that he came up here to do the TV ad.

I went as far as Westmoreland on my daily trek to work in Syracuse then turned around and came back. I know well the Mohawk Valley is prone to ice storms. I've fought too many bad conditions over the long tenure of my commute and decided to sit this one out from the comfort of my home.

I don't have statistics to back me up and again most of my "data" is empirically derived, but thinking back over the years, ice storms are more typical in December. This December was a little different, with January type weather. Now it's more like December weather.

Posted February 1st at 8:44 AM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Back to icy mix after a quick burst of moderate snow. Traffic is very slow on SR 12.

Posted February 1st at 8:46 AM
Sarah:

It's snowing and blowing here in N Utica. Concerned the wind could cause problems later. As for school closings....all you need to do is turn on the TV! Funny how something so simple could be so difficult for some!

Posted February 1st at 8:54 AM
Jan Sterling:

As of 0855 local. Westernville reporting 1/4 mi in heavy snow.

Posted February 1st at 8:58 AM
Jeff:

Snowing hard & very windy here up on Trenton Rd.
Matt, nice comments about you keep up the good work

Posted February 1st at 9:01 AM
Matt Lanza:

Alright, let's key in on a few things. I'll be helping the crew out a bit from home and we'll do some short-term forecasting/nowcasting in here.

What to watch? Radar...let's see if any drying can begin to develop anywhere about 3-5 hours from now. Temps... obviously this will be the limiting factor in whether or not we have nuisance problems or major problems. Right now we're in the low to mid 20s. We'll keep an eye on that.

Keep the reports coming...snow/ice accumulation reports would be helpful as well as any road conditions you notice. Stay safe and try not to be out if you don't have to.

Posted February 1st at 9:17 AM
Walt:

Still a moderate to heavy freezing rain in Norwich, temp getting towards 30. Trees are icing over.

Posted February 1st at 9:20 AM
Matt ( C B ):

Went to Utica and back.Roads were fine on the way in but ice and snow cover on way home.Slow driving but ok.It's winter in CNY.
Snow is drifting in the usual spots but on the opposite side of roads due to the East winds.The temp has fallen to 22 now from 24 at 6:30 this morning.
Big snow flakes and steady snow now..

Posted February 1st at 9:29 AM
Piseco Lake:

Moderate snow began at 9:10 a.m.

Posted February 1st at 9:32 AM
Jim in North Utica near Schuyler Line:

Still snowing but not as hard, the bouncy stuff is starting to mix in moderately.

Posted February 1st at 9:40 AM
Barb (Lee Center):

Hi all...just the monthly post from Lee...we don't talk much here. Snowing pretty good. Wind is blowing, white out conditions. No evidence of sleeting, ice, or anything. Just started snowing like heck. It does look wet and heavy, though. It only takes one good gust for the cable to go out, so we will see. My son is commuting one day a week from Rochester. He left yesterday, and is coming back today with my truck. I think I am going to call him and tell him to stay, since he has the fiancee and the kids. It figures my day off from MVCC that the schools close...LOL. Oh well...crack open the wine (after noon of course). Great job Matt et al. Love the blog...always will.

Posted February 1st at 9:42 AM
Lisa:

Is the afternoon 4:30 commute still looking ok to drive??

Posted February 1st at 9:52 AM
Lisa:

Snow is very light now here in Utica

Posted February 1st at 9:54 AM
Bruce (NH):

Anyone know if its bad in Albany right now? Im supposed to head that way in an hour or so-trying to decide. Thanks!

Posted February 1st at 9:54 AM
Matt Lanza:

Lisa: It depends on how fast we warm up and how much rain falls. I would anticipate a very slow go right now.

Posted February 1st at 9:57 AM
Ann (Deerfield/Poland area):

brutal wind up this way....just horrible. we had drifting snow up until about 10 minutes ago...now I can hear sleet or ice pellets hitting the window.

Posted February 1st at 9:59 AM
Lisa:

Thanks Matt!

Posted February 1st at 9:59 AM
Matt Lanza:

Bruce: From what I understand it's fine in Albany now. They will see freezing rain too, just not as bad as us. But getting from New Hartford to there may be tricky...unless you're from New Hampshire...but that would also be tricky.

Posted February 1st at 10:01 AM
Debbie:

Lisa: It is only lightly snowing in Utica right now. Have you seen any freezing rain yet.

Posted February 1st at 10:05 AM
MJ (Trenton):

Here we go........in Utica, off and on sleet last hour, now seeing some frz. rain mixing in.

Posted February 1st at 10:05 AM
Jim:

Snow has turned to all sleet in Little Falls, traffic moving very slow on RT5. Gusty winds.

Posted February 1st at 10:07 AM
MJ (trenton):

.......but still primarily sleet

Posted February 1st at 10:07 AM
Mike(Little Falls):

Heavy Sleet and Snow continues in Little Falls...

Posted February 1st at 10:08 AM
Jeff:

Matt,
There seems to be alot of precip.yet to come.Looked on NWS radar looks like it extends all the way down to S. Carolina

Posted February 1st at 10:08 AM
randy Vitullo:

Thanks GARY for the DiNardo answer. To the person who could not find school closings on WKTV: They were posted right from 5 AM until I last looked at 8 AM. Are you sure you were on WKTV?
Three inches of snow new in Holland Patent. Currently a mix of Sleet / Snow; I'd say 50:50. Keep the snow and sleet coming.

Posted February 1st at 10:14 AM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: There is plenty of it...like we said yesterday, it's juiced up from the Gulf. But it will be moving north and east, so not all of what extends to SC will get here. We should also see some drying occur this afternoon before the rest of the rain lifts through.

Posted February 1st at 10:15 AM
Debbie:

Looks like freezing rain may have started falling in Downtown Rome. It is very fine and doesn't appear to be snow. Haven't gone outside to check to see what it is.

Posted February 1st at 10:15 AM
Jules (Ilion):

Light to moderate sleet ...temp at 24f

Posted February 1st at 10:42 AM
Trista Bartl Fly creek sky watcher:

Its horrible out there. Been sleet snow and freezing rain since 7 this morning. The winds are picking up a lot also. The roads are very slick so please use caution.

Posted February 1st at 10:43 AM
Jim in North Utica near Schuyler Line:

Pretty much zero precip right now in North Utica, BUT, I can see it coming on the radar, we are just in a tiny dry slot right now it seems. Very blustery, just shoveled out maybe 2 to 3 inches.

Posted February 1st at 10:44 AM
Jim in North Utica near Schuyler Line:

Actually, I was starting to have miserable thoughts about how I was going to get rid of those couple of inches of snow once a half inch of ice crusted onto it, lol. 10 AM and I was already stir crazy staying home with my 6 yr old on a closed day.

Posted February 1st at 10:47 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Received 1.0" of snow so far here.Snow has ended for now.

Posted February 1st at 10:52 AM
Jim:

Sleet has turned to freezing rain in Little Falls. Still very windy.

Posted February 1st at 10:53 AM
Lisa(oriskany):

Debbie, I havent noticed any freezing rain yet.Just realy windy..Are you the Debbie Im thinking that you are???

Posted February 1st at 11:05 AM
Lisa:

I am just hoping the commute home is much better than the commute in this morning...Bring on some warmer temps and rain

Posted February 1st at 11:07 AM
Matt Lanza:

Snow is done south of Rome for the most part. Sleet should be over with soon as the warm air continues to expand a few thousand feet up. So we will go over the freezing rain. Precipitation looks to come in waves. An uptick in the rain should occur over Oneida and Herkimer Counties over the next 30-45 minutes. Temperature trends are good... Norwich is up to 30, Sherburne and Oneonta are also up to 30. Rome has jumped to 28. Slow, but sort of steady. Finger Lakes and Binghamton area temps are near 32 now, so plain rain should slowly be working into New York State.

Posted February 1st at 11:09 AM
Lisa:

Thats wonderful news Matt!

Posted February 1st at 11:14 AM
mike m(binghamton):

ahh, just woke up after seeing we had a ice day today. well i think it is going to get pretty bad here. right now i beleive it is sleeting since i can here pellets on the window, but frz rain may be mixing in. we have about a half inch of ice pellets and we must of already had periods of frz rain because you can see it on the tree braches. the most important thing to note is the temperature. last night at midnight it was 25.2 degrees, then at 4 am it was 27.0 degrees, then at 6:30 am after the precip started falling it was 24.2 degrees, and now it is still 27.0 degrees...i dont think we go above freezing here untill at least 2pm, but maybe at late as 4 or 5 pm!!! and with the radar looking quite impressive another .25-.33 inches of frz rain may occur( or some sig sleet) matt, any thoughts about my area??

Posted February 1st at 11:14 AM
Gordon (Northwestern):

About 2" of snow through 10 AM, then the precipitation stopped and as 11:10 it is still not doing anything outside, except very windy. By far the strongest winds I have had at my house this Winter. Temperature is 26 F.

Posted February 1st at 11:17 AM
Barb (E.Winfield):

Freezing rain, big wind gusts, wind howling! Roads sloppy - they were treated hours ago... traffic slow. No accumulation on the trees yet...but the walks have over an inch of snow, ice, etc.

Posted February 1st at 11:19 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Heavy sleet now falling...very windy.

Posted February 1st at 11:27 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

after further obs it appears that it is a wind driven sleet out there right now the temp is up to 27.5 i think i actually saw a few snowflakes mixed in too.

Posted February 1st at 11:30 AM
matt hp:

its 25 here and sleeting winds are at 15 with gusts in the 20's

Posted February 1st at 11:31 AM
Ken (S.Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

Heavy sleet here as well, wind is really howling....roads were crap about a hour ago....oneida st did not look like a plow had touched it....just lanes from the cars.

Posted February 1st at 11:35 AM
Karen~Westmoreland:

Sleet and looks as if it is mixed with freezing rain here and very gusty winds...

Posted February 1st at 11:38 AM
Mike (Little Falls):

Sleet continues here...heavy at times...winds are a concern if there is frz rain....power outages will be twice as likely if these gusts persist...

Posted February 1st at 11:40 AM
Debbie:

Lisa: Yup its me.

Posted February 1st at 11:40 AM
Cindy (ilion):

I just can't get over how much sleet we are getting. It seems like the last couple hours we are just getting HAMMERED with sleet. The winds are also howling. It is only 29 degrees here, so I guess we will have a while more of this. Any ideas as to when we will warm up enough to turn this to rain?

Posted February 1st at 11:42 AM
Patty:

Still sleeting in the village of Herkimer @ 27 degrees.

Posted February 1st at 11:43 AM
Lisa:

Debbie: Thats funny!! Do you have email?

Posted February 1st at 11:44 AM
Debbie:

Lisa: Yes. Can you get text messages on your cell phone. If so, I will send it to you.

Posted February 1st at 11:50 AM
Tony (CNYWeather.com - Westmoreland):

Looks like a couple more weeks and the webcam flag shall be gone. Got windy at home once again.

Posted February 1st at 11:50 AM
Lisa:

My phone is dead.....and it I think I have to add minutes.. Email it to me Lihugh3@aol.com

Posted February 1st at 11:51 AM
Debbie:

Does it look like the worst is over for Utica/Rome area or will there still be alot of freezing rain like they predicted. How does it look for driving around 3:30 this afternoon. It still looks like a light freezing rain in Rome. Has anyone else been out in Rome? How are Rome roads? Thanks for any input anyone has.

Lisa: are you out driving in this today. If so, be careful and drive slow. stacey said it was little nasty out in utica.

Posted February 1st at 11:53 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

This is more like a hailstorm!There has been pea sized sleet falling here heavily.I would consider ourselves lucky so far as the freezing rain has stayed away so far.

Posted February 1st at 11:56 AM
Lisa-oriskany:

Yes I did drive into work this morning, it didnt really get nasty until after I got home.. But the weather keeps saying its gonna all change to rain this afternoon, so I am hoping that it does and the drive home isnt so bad. I hate this weather! Looking out the door, the roads look like a big slushy mess

Posted February 1st at 11:57 AM
Lisa:

I MEAN it didnt get nasty until after i got to work

Posted February 1st at 11:57 AM
Barb (E. Winfield):

Now it is starting to stick to the evergreen branches... Vehicles are going MUCH SLOWER! Sleeting sideways. 29 degrees in sheltered area.

Posted February 1st at 12:00 PM
Josh (Utica):

White out conditions on 5s. The wind, snow, and sleet made it very difficult driving (obviously). Be sure to take your time! Some snow/sleet drifts starting to build up. Aweful out there! Hopefully we will catch that break that the ktv guys have been predicting....

Posted February 1st at 12:00 PM
heather (german flatts):

heavy sleet just went through roads are horrible. I went to Fort Plain at 8 am didnt get home till 10 am not a plow in sight the whole way home couldn't see the road. 5s bad thruway traffic is moving about 45 or so plows been up and down that alot. still sleeting pretty hard. Kids have snow day so when ever I can break them away from comp ill keep you posted on 5s and thruway conditions between herkimer and little falls.

Posted February 1st at 12:04 PM
Scott (Holland Patent):

Police and Fire radio frequencies are busy on the scanner. Stay put!

Posted February 1st at 12:11 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

heavy sleet here. the powerline that goes into the ground snapped outside my house(the one that doesnt really do anything) but we are deffinetly luckey this is not freezing rain. id say we have had about .1 inches of frz rain so far. temp is up to 28.4 . BTW somehow the airport is reporting snow now!!!

Posted February 1st at 12:12 PM
MJ (trenton):

Still sleet here in Utica, occasional wet streaks on the window. No pea size here, actually quite fine, 1/16" or so.
Anyone ever wonder why thruway is so much better shape than 5 or 5S?

Posted February 1st at 12:17 PM
Justin (Little Falls):

Could it be that toll hike? LOL. Mostly because thats all those trucks spend time on is going up and down the thruway, while the other state trucks hve to concentrate on the other state roads, RT 5, 5s, 12, 167, 28 etc.

Posted February 1st at 12:20 PM
Matt(Marcy):

sleet and freezing rain continue started at around 6 this morning .25 inch of ice so far

Posted February 1st at 12:22 PM
matt hp:

MJ
i have no proof why but id imagine ny try's harder to keep traffic moving on the thruway because the farther people can travel on the thruway the more revenue the state makes. if the thruway was bad people would probably stay put

Posted February 1st at 12:25 PM
Alex (little falls):

Heavy snow and sleet this morning and now it is all sleet. The roads are in bad condtion to. Also broken tree limbs with the strong winds here with about 2 inches of snow.

Posted February 1st at 12:36 PM
Serena:

stuck here at work in New Hartford- seems everyone on rte 5 corridor reporting no /little freezing rain but pretty bad sleet/visibility. I have to make it back to Stratford and am considering making a run for it now before it changes to all frezing rain and 167 is closed. I've been stuck before overnight. Also want to leave Utica beofre dark. Anyone traveling betw Stratford and Little Falls on 167? How is it?

Posted February 1st at 12:37 PM
Josh (@ work in Utica):

Serena: I can't imagine that any kind of travel in the viewing area is good. I would bet that it would be pretty rough going. If you do want to make a break for it, you might want to consider waiting for the "dry spot" that the ktv guys are predicting will move through later this afternoon. Just a thought. At any rate, take your time and be careful. Good luck!

Posted February 1st at 12:43 PM
Scott (Westmoreland):

The difference between the Thruway and the other state roads is the type of traveler that might be using them. The percentage of local travelers on the state roads is higher than the Thruway. As such, those people have more of an opportunity to avoid traveling during the worst weather periods.

On the other hand, those traveling across or through the state have less options for stopping should the weather get bad. The Thruway authority has more dedicated trucks that cover smaller sections of road, so they are able to cover the same stretch more during a given period of time than those plowing the other state roads.

Posted February 1st at 12:48 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

I would estimate we picked up around two and a half inches of snow this morning. At this time were getting heavy sleet. Winds are SE at 22 mph gusting to 34 mph, todays highest gust was 45 mph at 11:18 AM. The winds a causing a lot of drifting. The Roads are covered with hard packed snow and ice, also the blowing snow is causing Localized near white-out conditions.

Posted February 1st at 12:49 PM
Gary (in Schuyler):

Scott, The thruway had it's own maintenance crews, they only do the thruway and they've got the routine down well. But, during precipitation events, they too have a hard time keeping up and the thruway can get very nasty. Give them an hour or two after a precipitation event is over however, and they have the road conditions usually to bare (albeit wet) pavement.

Posted February 1st at 12:58 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

up to 30.9 degrees here with frz rain now.

Posted February 1st at 12:59 PM
Scott (Westmoreland):

Gary, that's basically what I was trying to say in my overly wordy post. I commuted to Fonda from Westmoreland for almost 6 years and there were very few times that the Thruway was too messy for safe travel, even during some of our 24+ inch snowstorms. I used to prepare taxes for several Thruway authority plow drivers and they took great pride in keeping the Thruway clear during even the toughest weather. And you're right, given a couple of hours after a storm ends, the road is virtually bare. They have more resources than the rest of the State DOT crews.

Posted February 1st at 1:08 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Ok back from repairs (darn car is getting expensive). IT is pretty nasty here in the hills outside of the village of Sherburne and away from the City of Norwich. The Village and City roads are just slushy. We are still getting heavy sleet here with the snowpack pretty much solid now. There was some really bad freezing rain in Norwich with icicles hanging off of signs and lights. Our temperature is slowly rising like Matt said with us up to almost 30 now. Still looks like a lot of precip on the radar!!

Posted February 1st at 1:10 PM
Shawn from Sherburne:

Snoozer huuuuuhhhh?
And Sherburne and Norwich are far from 30. More like 27.

Posted February 1st at 1:15 PM
MJ (Trenton):

I dont know who has more trucks or who covers less miles per truck. All I know is that 99% of the time when state roads are crap, thruway is fine. Today spots between Court ST and Walmart were drifted over! Couldn't see any sign where anything had plowed off the side of road, except a couple cars. I'd be curious to see a comparison of trucks vs. miles covered. Maybe WKTV could investigate? How out it Matt, twist some arms up there. Maybe state would do a better job if they got some bad press. Maybe they need to hire some more plow drivers, plenty of people looking for work.

Posted February 1st at 1:31 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

imagine if this was snow!!! jeff and shawn expect a bit of a temp surge within the hr, as we went from 27.9 to 31.1 as the little dry slot moved in, we are now steady at 31.1 with frz rain.

Posted February 1st at 1:31 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

I figure as much Mike since Norwich shot up last hour. This would have been huge if it was snow. I figure we have had at least 2 solid inches of sleet and about 1/4 of ice right now.

Posted February 1st at 1:34 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

jeff, also the winds are really picking up down here as the precip redevlops, we have had a few gusts to 30 mph, especially in the tree tops. the tree tops sway and crack(ice cracks) precariously under the weight of the ice.

Posted February 1st at 1:39 PM
Matt(Marcy):

i went out to get a sleet measurement and got a touch of frostbite by being blasted by that sleet and wind 4 inches of sleet so far and its geeting harder

Posted February 1st at 1:39 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

27.1 degrees with heavy sleet. Roads are horrible! RT 167 and 29 haven't been plowed in at least an hour and a half and both have a lot of sleet and slush buildup on them. If this changes over to freezing rain I think travel could be impossible up this way this evening.

Posted February 1st at 1:40 PM
Bruce (NH):

MJ: Thats the most ridiculous comment Ive ever read on this blog. Maybe you should stay put and off the roads-dont worry Wal Mart will still be there tomorrow. There are ample plow crews for the state-but also a lot of territory to cover. More drivers would mean your taxes would go up to cover their pay. Less money for you to spend at Wal Mart.;)

Posted February 1st at 1:40 PM
~jamie:

does anyone have any updates about rt46 from rome to westernville?

Posted February 1st at 1:45 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Looks like the dry slot is going to miss Utica just to the east.If we can keep the heavy precip going it's going to be hard for many areas to switch over to plain rain.

Posted February 1st at 1:49 PM
Sandy:

Comment 153 was rather harsh. Everyone should feel comfortable on this blog. Let's keep it nice and stick to the weather, not bashing people's comments. Thank you.

Posted February 1st at 1:49 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Dewpoints are in the upper teens/lower 20's in and around the valley.Freezing rain has just started to mix in now.Temp is at 27 here.

Posted February 1st at 1:52 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

well the thermometer says 31.3 here, and melting has begun, it is rain/ frz raining but it no longer is cold enough for it to really frz solid so the dripping is begining.

Posted February 1st at 1:53 PM
Tony (CNYWeather.com - Westmoreland):

Light freezing rain here now in NH. Genesee Street in the village has almost no traffic on it.

Posted February 1st at 1:58 PM
MJ (Trenton):

Michael, be careful you don't offend Bruce, think he might work for the state. Your roads sound similar to what I saw.
Bruce, that was the most ridiculous assumption I've ever read. I simply referred to Walmart as a geographic reference, a place that I thought people would recognize. Don't recall last time I shopped there. Since you seem so well informed, exactly how many plow crews do they have? Can you tell us how many miles each crew has to cover? I would just like to see a comparison of State vs. Thruway, as there seems to be quite a difference in road conditions.
To all others: sorry for the distraction, I could have posed my observation another day.

Posted February 1st at 2:00 PM
Scott (Westmoreland):

MJ:

I have a feeling that they are intentionally leaving snow/sleet on the roads because of the upcoming freezing rain. If they plowed off all the snow, the freezing rain would make the roads a skating rink. By at least leaving some snow/sleet, there is something gritty on the road for your tires to grip on.

I know the Thruway guys I spoke of earlier used to intentionally leave some snow on the road at times and chew up it up with a salt/sand mixture to leave something to grip with tires. Completely clearing the roads of all precipitation isn't always the best course of action.

Posted February 1st at 2:04 PM
Lisa:

How is Oriskany Blvd? and how is Rte 49?

Posted February 1st at 2:16 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

I strongly agree with you Scott! I have an assumption that is why all the roads are still heavilly covered. I am still hesitant to even shovel my sidewalks and driveway, but there is 6 inches of snow at the end of my driveway, and this sleet is incredibly HEAVY! At least with some snow and sleet on the roads, you have a little more traction than if it was just ice bonded to the pavement. State DOT just went up through 167 and 29. Side streets actually look better than the main roads!

Posted February 1st at 2:19 PM
lb:

where are the channel 2 meterologists. haven't seen a post from them in awhile as to updates on the weahter situation. are we still going to experience ice, sleet and snow since the dry spot is going to miss us. havn't seen much ice mainly snow and a little sleet. when you get a chance and have time post an update as to what is going on. it sounds like most of it stayed south of utica.

Posted February 1st at 2:20 PM
Lisa:

Hoping for that dry slot please!!!!!!!!

Posted February 1st at 2:22 PM
Matt Lanza:

Just got in...assessing things. We appear to be transitioning from sleet to freezing rain. Travel anywhere is not recommended. Please refrain from too much political/governmental jargon...I'd like to keep this focused on reports and conditions only...it'll make our job a lot easier. Thank you!

Posted February 1st at 2:32 PM
~jamie:

has anyone traveled thru rome and up rt46 lately?

Posted February 1st at 2:36 PM
Sam:

Has anyone driven through schuyler recently? I usually get off Dyke Rd exit, and zoom over the hill to the other side, wondering if I should rethink that route for this afternoon? thanks

Posted February 1st at 2:39 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Winter Storm warnings and ice storm warnings remain in effect for the entire viewing area. It looks as though areas east of Utica may get into the dry slot, but there still looks to be a ton of precipitation approaching from the SSW. This look like it will last well into tonight, so I don't think we are anywhere near being in the clear. I think however up to this point we dodged a bullet in that sleet has been the predominant precipitation type. National Grid is reporting VERY minimal power outages (only a few hundred statewide). This would have been crippling if this came as all freezing rain though. We have quite a ways to go guys!

Posted February 1st at 2:40 PM
MJ (Trenton):

Guess what, state just plowed that section, much, much better. But still not bare like the thruway because traffic has packed it all down. At least they finally got rid of slush.
Scott, the Thruway still uses sand? Always thought they just used tons of salt?
Back to the weather: Any chance freezing rain will spare us? Still looks like mostly sleet, end of storm supposed to be plain rain? Will be messy but hopefully less ice.

Posted February 1st at 2:42 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Completely agree with that Michael. This would have been absolutely crippling if the upper air was just a bit warmer!!

Posted February 1st at 2:42 PM
Matt Lanza:

Temperatures continue to slowly rise across the area. We're near 32 south of Route 20 in most cases. In the Valley and north, temps are 28-30 everywhere. As we continue to see moisture stream north, we will continue to slowly rise. Freezing rain will become the predominant precipitation type across the area and sleet will dissipate. Dry slot is going to miss us to the east, so rain will persist into the evening commute. Rain may be heavy at times. Ice accumulation between now and 4:30 PM should be around 1/4". Will we get above 32? I don't know. We should be able to at some point. But I would be prepared for heavy freezing rain through 5 PM, winds E 10-20, gusting to 30 (40-45 on hilltops). Sporadic power outages.

Posted February 1st at 2:44 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

We have picked up over one inch of sleet is afternoon.
The roads are still treacherous due to hard packed snow and ice. The winds are SSE at 19 mph gusting to 30 mph.Lewis County has a travel advisory in effect, and is recommending no unnecessary driving.

Posted February 1st at 2:46 PM
Dan stokes hill lee center:

31 degrees with moderate rain roads in poor shape Good job on the forcast matt you were extremly accurate

Posted February 1st at 2:58 PM
Gordon (Northwestern):

My Wife just got home from her part time job in Whiteboro. She said roads were not that bad, and she does not have a 4-wheel drive, just a Chevy Impala.

Posted February 1st at 3:02 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Winds have picked back up gusting 30+ MPH. Still sleet and freezing rain here. Temp at 31.7. Road are messy.

Posted February 1st at 3:02 PM
~jamie:

Gordon: thank you. i am getting ready to leave work in oriskany to head to westernville. i drive a pontiac grand am, so wish me luck!!!

Posted February 1st at 3:06 PM
Matt Lanza:

Interesting....Rome is over to plain rain and 33 now...temperatures have skyrocketed since I got in! We're up to 28.2 now here on Smith Hill. Maybe we're getting lucky?

Posted February 1st at 3:13 PM
Jackson:

Freezing rain started here in Little Falls at 2:50 pm.

Posted February 1st at 3:15 PM
Lisa:

What does "not that bad" mean? I know the roads here in Utica are a mess.. Maybe the main rds are better

Posted February 1st at 3:15 PM
Ann (Deerfield/Poland area):

Freezing rain and wind here in Deerfield/Poland area. Temp says 30 degrees on our weather system. I hope we get lucky.....come on 33! :)

Posted February 1st at 3:18 PM
Matt Lanza:

My question to anyone... since the transition to freezing rain, are the trees getting caked in ice at all... any ice accumulation numbers would be extremely helpful if possible...because it's a guessing game for me as to how much ice is accruing out there.

Posted February 1st at 3:21 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Just a light glaze on everything here.There is still some sleet mixing in.

Posted February 1st at 3:24 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

More than a glaze but it's hard to measure when the winds are so strong. My smaller trees are starting to get weighted down...more so in the last 1/2 hour. Not a good sign with the winds as they are. Temp just jumped to 32.1.

Posted February 1st at 3:29 PM
Matt Lanza:

I'll be issuing a snow forecast in a bit. Looks like back end snow could deliver a fair amount to some parts of the area, especially N & W of the Mohawk Valley.

Thanks Laura and Rob...anyone else, please keep the ice reports coming if possible.

Posted February 1st at 3:33 PM
mike m(binghamton):

matt, im at 31.5 here. ice is no longer forming though as it is too close to freezing and raining too "hard". we have about .2 inches of ice on trees and wires. about 1 inch of sleet. also winds are quite gusty here, 25-30 mph gusts.

Posted February 1st at 3:35 PM
Karen~Westmoreland:

Just a light glaze here where I am at in Westmoreland as well.

Posted February 1st at 3:36 PM
Betsi West leyden:

Seems strange that the temps are at 30 degress here and now went from snow this morning to sleet/frz rain all afternoon,,now a switch over to PLAIN RAIN up here ,,,winds are howling and very nasty out there,,,very bitter cold,,,,,,Why not snow,? if its 30*outside?and winds a ripping Is there a wind chill? totally strange,weather id say!!

Posted February 1st at 3:37 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, was just gonna ask about snow potential and you beat me to it lol looks like coastal low is strengthening faster than models thought and will track a bit further east near Albnay instead of near Utica. the 18z WRF is now showing .3-.5 inches of QPF over utica that could fall as snow, so 2-5 inches maybe

Posted February 1st at 3:38 PM
Donna:

My daugher is traveling to Oswego tonight around 6pm. Does anyone have a Thruway status? or I81N?

Posted February 1st at 3:40 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I've been hearing I81 around SYR is a disaster.It's also closed in a few spots.Several accidents.That was about an hour ago.

Posted February 1st at 3:43 PM
Matt Lanza:

Dry slot has worked in to areas S & E of Utica...so that's good news...but W and N of Utica still seeing freezing rain.

Donna: Google search "NY winter travel advisory" for the latest road conditions statewide.

Posted February 1st at 3:44 PM
Barbara (Laurens):

I have at least .25 inches ice on trees, power lines, etc. close to the house. I looks heavier down in the orchard but it's solid ice on the ground and I'm not crazy enough to slide down there and measure! Tree branches are bent down, many touching the ground, especially the pines. I can see that one of my apple trees is broken, with big limbs laying on the ground. Route 205 looks good; they've been salting all day. Temp just raised to 31 a little while ago. There is really no wind here - good thing!

Posted February 1st at 3:45 PM
Matt Lanza:

Winds are going to stay up through about 9 PM then quickly die off. Then later tonight we should see wind pick back up, gusting to 20-40 mph.

Posted February 1st at 3:53 PM
Lisa:

Please if anyone has been on RTE 49 between utica and ROME or Oriskany Blvd, how are the road conditions? I am trying to debate which one to take

Posted February 1st at 3:55 PM
dan Stokes hill lee center:

Matt light icing on trees extremly windy 31 degrees

Posted February 1st at 3:55 PM
Barb (E. Winfield):

Some ice on the tree branches now, about .1 to .2 tenths of an inch. The evergreens have more, but it breaks up easily, so we are right on the edge. Still raining, wind gusts! Temp about 31. And the plow went by twice about half an hour ago. Route 20 is slush with wet tire paths, so it is MUCH BETTER now, & vehicles moving faster.

Posted February 1st at 3:59 PM
Barb (Lee Center):

At least .25 inch ice on our back deck. A little bit of everything up here...rain, ice....couple flakes now and then. Tree is bending down in the front yard. Little wind...not much. At least the plow just went by. I think because we are near Stokes Hill that we are sticking in the ice situation due to the elevation. Icicles look nice....we will be going out to dinner soon...will let you know how the roads are when we get back.

Posted February 1st at 4:00 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

We have picked up one eighth of an inch of freezing rain. at this time were getting light freezing rain. temperature is 31 degrees. winds are SE at 16 mph.

Posted February 1st at 4:02 PM
Andy forestport:

This storm looks huge on the national loop radar

Posted February 1st at 4:06 PM
Andy Forestport:

Matt

It stayed primarily sleet here, it piled up probably 3 inches, I do see a light coating of ice on my bird feeders but not on trees that I could tell. I wonder how much snow would have fallen if it was all snow.

Posted February 1st at 4:10 PM
Wayne (Marcy):

Just hit 32 here

Posted February 1st at 4:10 PM
randy Vitullo:

Hard to measure with all of the wind today, but I am looking at somewhere between 5 and 7 inches of snow / sleet / ice accumulation since this morning in Holland Patent. It is currently 90 to 95 % freezing rain with a few sleet pellets thrown in. This very much resembles the 16 December storm with the snow / sleet accum. in the beginning. The 16 Dec. storm packed around 5 to 7 nches of snow to HP on the backend. I don't see that much, but I would bet at least 3 inches on the back end tonight.

Posted February 1st at 4:28 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, rochester buffalo wellsville over to snow, how much longer before BGM and SRY go over to snow, and could we see some decent snow?

Posted February 1st at 4:40 PM
Matt Lanza:

Snow map is out.... Click here

Posted February 1st at 4:48 PM
Jim:

My drivers have been running from Oneida to Sherburne to Boonville and Dolgeville. The roads seem to be better around the City of Utica as would be expected, the worst conditions I have heard of so far seem to be out toward Dolgeville. I have heard of accidents on route 5 out in Vernon. Take your time and go slow. It is what it is.

Posted February 1st at 4:48 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

30 degrees with very light freezing drizzle. Trees just have a very thin un-measurable amount of ice on them, nothing to worry about at this point. Roads are horrible! Lots of slush and slop on both main and seconday roads. NYSDOT reporting VERY bad road conditions throughout Oswego County along I-81 and in the Watertown area, and also around the Saratoga Region in eastern NY along I-87N and Rt 29. RT5 in Vernon/Verona area is very nasty as well. Winter Storm Warning for Herkimer county has been extended until 7a.m. to account for the snow at the end. For those of you from Utica eastward, precip appears to be filling back in again and could be heavy.

Posted February 1st at 4:48 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

We have picked up between an eighth and a quarter inches of freezing rain. At this time were still getting a light freezing rain. The temperature is 31 degrees, and the winds are SE at 21 mph. We picked up two and a half inches of snow this morning, and about an inch and a half of sleet this afternoon before we switched over to freezing rain.

Posted February 1st at 4:49 PM
Amy - Remsen:

We got pounded with sleet today, easily 3 inches. The winds were ferocious today with major sleet drifts in open areas. Just plain nasty. Temp is 31 and it's freezing rain now. The "snow" is terribly heavy to shovel and everything is covered in ice now. I just saw the snow map, 2-5" on top of this mess...ewww.

Posted February 1st at 4:55 PM
mike m( binghamton):

matt, do you know when the change to snow will occur?

Posted February 1st at 5:00 PM
Dave (Fairfield):

This link may help - Covers all road conditions in NYS https://www.nysdot.gov/portal/page/portal/transportation-partners/nys-transportation-federation/travel-info-ny/winter-travel-advisory

Posted February 1st at 5:02 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Just went out to measure...now up to 1/4+ inch on trees that had a good glazing 1 1/2 hours ago. Winds still very strong 35+ and SR 12 is getting slippery again.

Posted February 1st at 5:03 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Gradually as the night goes on...probably after 8-10 PM.

Posted February 1st at 5:10 PM
Bob(Cooperstown):

Temp.34 Pressure 29.74 Light Rain

Posted February 1st at 5:38 PM
Matt Lanza:

Television is incredible. I'm tracking an ice storm right now, and Elmo is dancing in the studio. There are some days where I love my job.

Posted February 1st at 5:50 PM
ken:

matt,i see snowfall map and utica seems to be in between the 2 to 5 and trace to 2.stupid question but which one is it for utica?

Posted February 1st at 5:52 PM
Matt Lanza:

Ken: I did that purposely. I'm not expecting much more than 2". We'll see. The back side of these storms can surprise on either end...less than expected or more than expected. I'll update the map later tonight of course, but for now...approximately 2" for Utica (1-3" on average within 5 miles of the city).

Posted February 1st at 6:04 PM
heather (german flatts):

went to herkimer 2xs around 5pm road was a bit slushy but not bad traffic on thruway going good. its still a light freezing rain here . hubby took off to go to work around 6 pm to be there by 7 in saint johnsville will let you know how 5s is from here to mindenville and then saint johnsville if anyone wants to know.

Posted February 1st at 6:19 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The temp is above 32 now. The wind is 6 mph out of the ESE

Posted February 1st at 6:30 PM
Ken ( S Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

Wow is it windy out, and the rain is making parking lots like ice rinks.....roads in the city are very slushy and slow going with lots of standing water on them as well. Also based on scanner transmissions rt 12 is closed in the waterville are due to power lines down, across the roadway and on vehichles....stated they have people trapped in cars as well.

Posted February 1st at 6:48 PM
Matt Lanza:

Looking for reports from southern Oneida, Otsego and Herkimer Counties please...any temp/precip updates and any ice totals. Thank you.

Posted February 1st at 6:52 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Temp is 32 here.It's raining so hard that it's not really freezing.About 1/8" of ice on the car but it's not solid.

Posted February 1st at 6:59 PM
Matt ( C B ):

We stayed at around 28 most of the day.Got well over two inches of sleet.Very thin coating of Ice.Temp now up to 33 and raining with gusty east winds.
Went to Utica at 7:30 am and again at 11:30,roads were typical wind driven snow and sleet but not impassable.Snow blowing wasn't fun this afternoon.
Looks like my 3:30 am drive into work might not be too good.Yuck !!!

Posted February 1st at 7:01 PM
John (Ohio, NY):

From Central Herkimer County - 33 degrees, heavy rain. Main roads fair to poor, 2.5" of snow/sleet prior to rain

Posted February 1st at 7:03 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Matt is that snow over Buffalo?If it is that has to be coming down at an incredible rate!

Posted February 1st at 7:06 PM
Lisa:

Sooooo i chose to take Oriskany Blvd home.. It was all mainly wet roads.. No problems what so ever...still raining here in oriskany! Matt is the weather looking quiet tomorrow?

Posted February 1st at 7:14 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Rain is still freezing on contact here. Just went out in the dark to measure up to 1/2 inch of ice on the trees. The power lines are starting to sag. Temp stuck at 33.8.

Posted February 1st at 7:26 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

rob, yep that is snow in buffalo. i think we are about to change over here in bgm. also cars still having trouble making it up my road(which is a main road) and the plows were all over it early this afternoon, it must still be slush covered. deformation zone will set up in the next several hrs bring periods of mod to heavy snow; it should be snow west of I-81 by 8, and near utica by 9, and out towad startford and herkimer by 930 or 10 id say....this is my best guess.

Posted February 1st at 7:30 PM
rosie:

have a minor gripe about something...i get the WKTV forcasts emailed to me...it gives forcasts for north of utica, west of utica, east of utica and south of utica, what about plain old utica??? which are we supposed to go with, i know we have NSEW utica, but i don't think the forcast is that different for our small area, our city is not all that big....and i mean really is new hartford really that much south of utica or whitesboro that much west of utica?? Not being negative, but if you read the forcast it is hard to tell what is really going to happen in utica. I know WKTV services a large area, but a little more specificity regarding utica would be great!

Posted February 1st at 7:33 PM
Roger ( Springfield Center):

temp currently 35 with a nice steady rain. Seemed like mostly a freezing rain event then rain,very light accumulation of ice on trees here. However the ice in my driveway is nasty figures right.

Posted February 1st at 7:33 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rosie: There are quite a lot of differences in and around Utica. What happens here in Deerfield is another world from the city, and the same can be said for some other areas. I usually take pains to write "From Utica north and east" or something similar. Usually what happens in Utica is similar to what happens south and west, so using that logic, either situation applies to you. Email forecasts are great, but I can only write so much. That's why I'd consider that sort of thing as a supplement to actually watching the weathercast on-air or online.

Rob: Buffalo is reporting light snow right now. Looks like some heavier snows are pinwheeling north of there.

Generally light, but occasionally moderate snow will break out across the area after 9 PM. With temperatures at or above freezing in most spots it won't be quick to stick.

Posted February 1st at 7:38 PM
rosie:

thanks....i will try to figure out where i am as to what you are writing

Posted February 1st at 7:48 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

31.3 degrees here with heavy rain/freezing rain. LOTS of standing/ flowing water and slush on roadways! My street looks more like a river. Trees are fine with little to no ice accumulation. Roads both main and secondary are my main concern right now as they are absolute slop and slush in spots. Picked up 3.00" inches of snow and a half an inch of sleet today. I'm trying to keep everyone updated, but I do snow removal when we get snow so i'm in and out during the worst of it, hence the reason for no updates at times.

Posted February 1st at 7:50 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

This was for sure a major storm.If this was all frz rain or all snow we would be crippled.Looks like most areas along and south of I90 in the county will end up with around 2" of precip.

Posted February 1st at 7:53 PM
Matt Lanza:

As Michael sort of hinted at, all of this rain is beginning to cause problems. A lot of smaller towns have snow basins filled up from the winter's snow, so the water has nowhere to go since the snow didn't melt. Use caution in flood prone areas as there could be some locally deep water.

Posted February 1st at 8:02 PM
mike m( binghamton):

matt, as the precip has tapered off to driizle here it is actually frz drizzle. i thought my thermometer was off earlier today when melting began at 31.3, well now i know that was due to precip intensity, now it says 31.8 with light frz rain falling. this is how i can tell it is frz rain....i can literally ice skate down my main road which was fine earlier this evening...the road just keeps getting worse and i dont beleive the town is aware of the problem (havent sent a salter around since 1 pm)because the NWS took the ice storm warning down. so if my thermometer is right we have not made it to freezing all day here!!!

Posted February 1st at 8:02 PM
Barb (E. Winfield):

Rosie - you'd be amazed at the difference a few miles makes! I drive to Utica every day. Sometimes one mile on Mohawk St. goes from sunny and clear roads to snow covered, to white out. Same for Route 8 - clear near Rt. 12, white out by Washington Mills. The usual spot that goes from no snow to accumulated is near Cassville - right where it blows and drifts that snow like crazy. The ride from Herkimer has the same quirks, just south of Mohawk at Ward and Warren Rds - the middle of the farmer's field used to be the difference of night and day, summer or winter! You could see the rain or snow line. I guess that has to do with altitude and prevailing winds... I'm used to starting with lousy roads on Rt 20, bad on Rt 8 to dry to lousy in Utica and vise versa!

Posted February 1st at 8:21 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The rain is starting to mix with sleet. The temperature here is 32. The major roadways are ok, however, The secondary roads are in bad shape.

Posted February 1st at 8:42 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

well we are officially over to big wet snow flakes the temp is 31.3 degrees. once again the roads across the higher elevations of broome county are in bad shape, looking out my window i see cars spinning everywhere. people are just not being cautious!!!

Posted February 1st at 8:44 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

just took a look at the radar and BGM is deffinetly in the deformation zone, as precip(snow) is developing nicely...the only thing keeping accumulations down will be the temps...if they can fall into the upper 20s soon we could make out decently.

Posted February 1st at 8:46 PM
Barb (E. Winfield):

Just checked, ice is melting here. Temp is about 34.

Posted February 1st at 8:46 PM
George (Ilion):

I know at this time of year the NYC area tends to run 5-10 degrees warmer in the day and stay at or above freezing.However I took notice at this hour (almost 9pm) they are sitting at 55 degrees!! When I looked at the northeast as a whole it was just a warm pocket at the coast with 30's once you get maybe 50 miles inland.Why such a drastic difference? more mind bending since it is nighttime??

Posted February 1st at 8:55 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah Mike the southern tier seems to be filling in nicely.It's 33 here so it's going to have to come down pretty hard to stick.

Posted February 1st at 8:59 PM
dan in lee center:

temp 32 now snow mixing in roads route 26 ok

Posted February 1st at 9:00 PM
Matt Lanza:

George: This happens frequently in these storms. Atlantic Ocean air is always warmer and once you establish a breeze off the water, it makes it impossible to cool off. In this case though, I think you've got warmth surging up from the Gulf, so it's an almost tropical type air mass for this time of year. Makes it very mild. I witnessed this first hand during the Christmas 2002 storm. At the height of it, it was snowing heavily inland by 50 miles or so with temps in the 20s. At my house 4 miles from the ocean in NJ, it was 65 and sunny.

Posted February 1st at 9:04 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

We are getting a snow sleet mix.

Posted February 1st at 9:10 PM
Dan stokes hill lee center:

All snow now roads getting bad again

Posted February 1st at 9:21 PM
Matt Lanza:

Hey, guess what? I updated the snowfall map again! I had some time to digest radar and temperature trends and look at the latest model guidance, so I broadbrushed most areas with 1-3", but a Trace-1" south and east of about West Winfield. Click here to view.

Posted February 1st at 9:38 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, it is having a hard time snowing here, we are back over to a mix of snow and frz rain.

Posted February 1st at 9:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

Gotta love the borderline temps. Up this way at least, this will likely be mostly rain or snow...at times moderate, but generally light. Still use caution out and about.

Posted February 1st at 9:49 PM
Jules (Ilion):

About 2 inches snow,sleet on ground temp 30 degrees at 10:10 pm

Posted February 1st at 10:11 PM
Jules (Ilion):

forgot to mention....light to moderate wet snow

Posted February 1st at 10:14 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Getting light snow..... very little accumulation.

Posted February 1st at 10:24 PM
Kevin (whitesboro):

HUGE, heavy, and wet flakes here.

Posted February 1st at 10:28 PM
Matt Lanza:

Looks to be about a quarter to a half inch of snow outside right now here on the hill! Coming down good too.

Posted February 1st at 10:51 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

ha its still raining here...looks like we get 0 snow...what else is new!!!

Posted February 1st at 11:24 PM
judy:

Does anyone know if route 5 in kirkland is flooding?

Posted February 1st at 11:40 PM
Steve (Vernon):

Judy....Just came through Kirkland on Route 5 around 11:30 and it was not flooding.

Posted February 1st at 11:58 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

We have about one inch of snow.

Posted February 2nd at 12:04 AM
JUDY:

STEVE - THANKS -JUDY

Posted February 2nd at 12:18 AM
Gina ( Trenton Falls):

came up from Utica, i am about 10 miles up on off Rt 12, about a half an hour ago, big, huge flakes...i would guess about a half an inch of heavy, wet snow....now just moisture falling out of the sky...don't know if its raining/light snow or snow melt off the trees....

Can't say we don't have interesting weather here in upstate NY!

Posted February 2nd at 12:29 AM
randy Vitullo:

To Matt or Bill: Question one: THis week's storm was filled with uncertainty right from day one all the way until the morning of the storm. Next Tuesday's storm has been on the map as rain since last week. Why the difference? QUESTION TWO: I recently heard (whether true or not) that the arctic ice cap could be gone by as early as the summer of 2013. I highly doubt that one, but, what effect would that have on winter in NY State?

Posted February 2nd at 8:40 AM
Jim (Whitesboro):

Punxsutawney Phil says "Six more weeks of winter"

Posted February 2nd at 8:48 AM
Matt Lanza:

I have to say... they pulled Phil out with hardly any daylight! I think it was rigged. ;) We pulled Bill Kardas out of bed this morning and he also didn't see his shadow...so I guess we are in for six more weeks of winter, but as residents of CNY, you already knew this! :)

Randy: It's all in the track. This week's storm initially started out as a coastal nor'easter on the models...so we knew we'd be dealing with a cold storm...then it shifted west on the heels of a brief shot of Arctic air...so we knew it could be messy. The Tuesday storm has been progged to pass well west, 850 mb temps have consistently been +4 or better, so we knew it would be quite warm, and there has not been the shiftiness we saw with this week's storm. Plus, we knew that behind yesterday's storm, there would not be any Arctic air. High confidence in different outcomes. Let's get to Tuesday before we declare victory, but I think we're ok.

As far as the Polar ice caps being gone by 2013, it's not going to happen. Secondly, if the Arctic ice cap melted, one thing that would not happen would be the overly dramatic rise in sea level that's been predicted. Remember, the Arctic isn't a continent, it's ice floating on water. If you have a glass of water with ice cubes and the ice cubes melt, your glass of water won't overflow. Now that said, if something like the Antarctic ice were to melt (which is not floating, since it's on a continent), we'd have issues. But assuming that won't happen....it's extremely tough to say how something so large scale as a Polar ice cap melt would impact us in NY. Climate change to a warmer climate may lead to more snow for us because of more atmospheric moisture (warm air holds more moisture) and, assuming we get warmer summers, warmer Great Lakes..more lake snows. The bottom line is...we have ideas, but we don't know for sure what's happening. Thirty years ago, people thought we were coming into a new ice age. It's no coincidence that eastern US winters in the 70s were spectacular. If meteorology and weather forecasting had been a big deal in the 1930s, global warming would have been the hot topic then too. The only thing natural about weather and climate is variability....just keep that in mind.

Posted February 2nd at 10:42 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, any long range ideas, as the gfs is not showing any big storms or real cold air in the next 15 days...when is winter going to start again?

Posted February 2nd at 11:55 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Another blown opportunity for snow again today.We've had a perfect 290 flow this morning.Where's the arctic air!

Posted February 2nd at 11:57 AM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Through Feb 20 it looks milder than normal. Again, the PNA is forecasted to briefly go positive around the 10th, and we're seeing reflections of that in the GFS ensembles with a little cool shot sneaking in. But the NAO stays positive and the AO stays ridiculously positive, with no sign of coming down. So I would guess that other than a few shots of rain to snow through mid-Feb (and maybe some lES around the 10th), we're not looking good in the snow dept. Remember when we laid out the numbers in La Nina years, it was either top 10 or nothing...we went with top 10, mostly because of the Lake temperature and warm fall. Unfortunately it just hasn't gone our way. We're over 50" for the season, which isn't ridiculously below normal, and all it would take is one storm, but this is increasingly looking like the "nothing," rather than the top 10. Just remember, low expectations can lead to high value reward eventually! Hopefully we'll eek something out before spring.

Posted February 2nd at 12:28 PM
randy Vitullo:

Thanks Matt. I am still somewhat perplexed on the ice thing (even though I know it is not happening anytime soon). Wouldn't the lack of ice have an effect on the AO and the NAO? I was thinking if there were more open water, there would be a better chance for low pressure to develop. Wouldn't that lead to a positive AO and NAO?

Posted February 2nd at 1:49 PM
mike m(binghamton):

thanks matt for your insight....hopefully after the 20th we can get lined up into a pattern that could produce a few nor easters in a row or something...

Posted February 2nd at 2:19 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

There's been a persistant snizzle here since early this morning.The Euro and GFS shows a storm lurking off the coast next Saturday.But the way things have been going this season...that's probably where it will stay.

Posted February 2nd at 2:36 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

Rob, agreed ;)

Posted February 2nd at 3:14 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Good Afternoon all. Sorry couldnt get back on last night as I drove to Utica to spend the tax money. The roads at 5-7pm were not really that bad except for the normal Paris Hill 12 area. It surely was pouring though most the evening. We had abut 3 inches total in the storm with most of that being sleet. Everything began the big thaw last night and then refroze today so now I have ruts of ice going up my driveway :( . I am hoping the next storm stays warm and wet long enough to clean the driveway!

Posted February 2nd at 3:25 PM
randy Vitullo:

I agree Rob. It will either miss us completely to the east or shift drastically to the west and hammer us with what we just had or worse. Then, the winds will align for Boonville north or for the Fingerlakes region; or not at all.................Then it will warm up again. We will probably start to get hammered at the beginning of March right on through the middle of April.

Posted February 2nd at 5:33 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

My forecast is that we are going to get pounded with snow when we don't want it which would be late March or April. By that time we won't be excited because we know it won't stay around long enough for anyone to enjoy it, and plus who wants snow during spring. March 20th Spring Arrives. Couldn't we have a nice Valentines Day Blizzard repeat, lol!

Posted February 2nd at 6:46 PM
Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

Michael: This is the first time that im saying this but i really dont want it to snow on valentines day!!!??? Im going to Jamaica that day;)

Posted February 2nd at 7:46 PM
Matt Lanza:

Randy: The AO is complex. Water does not necessarily equal certain pressures. What fuels pressure is far more complex than just water temperature or coverage (you could have widespread 90 degree ocean temperatures, but if there's a raging El Nino and a strong subtropical jet stream, you won't get many hurricanes). Additionally, the AO is interesting in that what occurs in the stratosphere. I'll be completely honest with you..I'm just beginning to study the relationship between the stratosphere and the troposphere (where weather occurs). But, there was just a significant stratospheric warming event that occurred from what I've read. That may eventually trickle down and force the AO negative. So it's far less a function of sea ice coverage than it is a function of the large scale pattern, what's occurring even higher up than we can imagine, etc. As you can tell it's extremely complex, and even I struggle sometimes to fully grasp the relationship. But I'm continuously studying and learning tid-bits about it, and I'll share them as I find them out!

Posted February 2nd at 8:57 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, so wait the AO may go negative soon? i think maybe after the 15th of february we might get into a colder snowier pattern.

Posted February 2nd at 9:19 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

the SREF mean now tracks tuesday low pressure center right over BGM and Utica, however it is going to take another few hundred mile shift east before we have to worry about NE thing frozen, due to the fact that there is no cold air in place.

Posted February 2nd at 10:16 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: No, the AO will probably stay solidly positive for awhile. I'm not hopeful for anything legitimately cold and snowy at least before 2/20. It's the drawback of a La Nina winter...it's not going to be that cold. As for the Tuesday storm...it's rain, solidly, and there's almost no chance of this shifting so far to the east that we get cold enough for frozen. The SREF is a rather significant outlier right now.

Posted February 2nd at 11:40 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, what about the stratospheric warming, wont that make the AO go negative eventually? is there any correlation between stratospheric warming and th AO going negative a certain period of time later?

Posted February 2nd at 11:48 PM
Cindy (ilion):

I've heard some talk about a possible storm for the 9-10 of Feb. seeing that I'm totally not 1 that knows anything about weather I wouldn't know, but that is just something I heard and wondered if you had any thoughts on that Matt??

Posted February 3rd at 12:21 AM
Matt Lanza:

Cindy: My thoughts are in #267.

Mike: I honestly don't know. That's not something we're taught in college, but I've started reading up a bit on that in my free time.

Posted February 3rd at 1:10 AM
Mike(Leonardsville):

Nothing wrong with a warm winter, it helps most of us on fuel costs.

Posted February 3rd at 7:44 AM
Bill Kardas:

Links to our weather archive

Posted February 3rd at 8:41 AM
heather (german flatts):

I just hope we don't get another Valentines Day storm my daughter has to have surgery the 13th in Cooperstown Last year my nephew had to have his out the same day and we got that huge storm please predict good things for the 13-14

Posted February 3rd at 9:01 AM
Jules (Ilion):

Mike concerning post 283....bring on the warm weather Ill take mild any day

Posted February 3rd at 9:22 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, todays forcast for the indicies seems to point to the Ao, NAO and PNA all getting close to neutral between feb 10th and 16th, now all we need is for the NAo and AO to go Negative and maybe we can get something.

Posted February 3rd at 10:50 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

am i just mistaken or are teh 12z gfs ensembles giving CNY some decent snow at 84 hrs?

Posted February 3rd at 1:14 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Looks like maybe a 1-3" type situation on the backside...nothing impressive. Regarding the neutrality of the the teleconnections... I'm doubtful this comes to fruition. The AO is staying positive for the foreseeable future. The PNA is staying neutral-negative and the NAO is staying neutral-positive. A lot of times you might want to search the models...all of them..to find some sort of hopeful sign. Unfortunately, unless we see a LOT of those signs, serious winter isn't visiting anytime soon (except maybe that brief shot on Feb 10-11).

Posted February 3rd at 1:41 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

yea this winter sucks....for snow lovers at least

Posted February 3rd at 2:22 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

the low pressure system that is going to hit us tuesday night and wednesday looks to be shifting SE on the models, with a track right up the ohio river and to a position near NYC advertised by the ETA model, if this were to take place some decent snow could fall NW of a Bradford to syracuse to glens falls line. this is something that bears watching to see if the GFS and WRF models trend SE also.

Posted February 3rd at 3:23 PM
Dain from cold brook:

I will take this "warmer" weather anytime. It means lower heating bills and more money in my pocket. Just as a side note I find it funny that the snow lovers dig through every model hoping for another Valentines Day storm....

Posted February 3rd at 4:07 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

ha yea it is kinda funny..." my name is mike and im a snow lover..." lol
in the winter it is suppose to be cold and snow alot, that is why all the anti-snow lovers have summer...you dont see us snow lovers hoping for snow in the summer do u( well most of us dont at least lol)

Posted February 3rd at 4:10 PM
Dain from Cold Brook:

Mike, there is no problem with being a snow lover. It does, however, see quite obvious that you are nitpicking at every model, even if it is not what you want. My point is to enjoy the weather no matter what he or she decides to throw at us. If it is warm, go out and have fun or if it is cold and snowy then get out the sled and have some fun. Just my $0.02

Posted February 3rd at 4:48 PM
randy Vitullo:

Despite the warmer winter, the cross country skiing has been nonstop in Holland Patent since 2 December. Our base is fine and we have only missed 5 total days of skiing since 2 December. Skiing has been relatively good too. A little bit colder (3 or 4 degrees) to keep powder on the trails would be nice, but, we are still skiing and it looks like we will for the foreseeable future. I feel badly for winter enthusiasts living south of me, especially in Binghamton. On another note, most winter / cold weather haters that I know, stay indoors during the winter whether it is cold or warm. Why snow on the ground is an issue for them is a big question to me. Most aren't out in it whether its white or brown.... There is still time for snow. March might be the big time. Just in time to delay the arrival of spring.

Posted February 3rd at 4:48 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

i hope march is snowy Randy, and you are right there is no way i could ski down here right now. Dain i certainly do enjoy all weather, but my point is there is only one time of the year it can snow, that is approx december through march and if it doesnt snow much during these months you have to wait nearly a year to enjoy winter activities such as skiing. but as you hinted at you cant change mother nature and if she wants CNY to have a warm rainy winter, that is exactly what will happen. as for the models, sure i may be a nip picker but take a look at what buffalo did, they are now calling for all snow wednesday( 100 percent chance) across the central finger lakes, and rain and snow changing to snow wednesday in lewis county.

Posted February 3rd at 5:22 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Mike your right about the 18Z runs.The GFS especially is showing an icy scenerio to snow.Wish something would pop up for Saturday.

Posted February 3rd at 5:22 PM
mike m (binghamton):

Rob, yea just saw the 18z gfs and if the 00gfs trends any colder we could have some significant snow form esp Utica North.

Posted February 3rd at 5:28 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Mike I was wonder about classes at Suny/Oswego.I was looking for a course specifically for LES.I heard they had alot of stuff about that.But when I e-mailed them for a catelog on all there classes,I didn't receive anything pertaining to that.I thought maybe you would know more?

Posted February 3rd at 5:34 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

Rob, i dont really know too much because i havent met with a course advisor or anyting, but i went up there for orientation and i remember them talking about a mesoscale class and a synoptic scale class or something like that so im sure the mesoscale class would cover LES, thats about all i know.

Posted February 3rd at 5:56 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

Rob, check this website out, maybe you can find something, http://www.oswego.edu/news_weather/weather/

Posted February 3rd at 5:58 PM
Kevin (Kirkland):

If you major in meteorology at SUNY Oswego then the Synoptic Meteorology course (2 semesters) is required. The Mesoscale course is an elective that you can take (1 semester). I hope you like math, meteorology uses alot of calculus and physics. The professors in the met department are great. I graduated from the Met program there in 2005. As far as I know there is not a course specific to lake effect snow, but they do organize a lake effect snow conference for the past few years.

Posted February 3rd at 6:15 PM
Jules (Ilion):

Most people I know dont stay inside whether there is snow or no snow...
they just have to get to work..I prefer
clear roads as to hazardous conditons....

Posted February 3rd at 7:06 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Thanks guys for the info!

Posted February 3rd at 7:53 PM
matt hpst:

at brockport you had to take calc 1-3 and differential equations also synoptic and dynamic met i honestly believe brockport has one of the most difficult programs

Posted February 3rd at 8:13 PM
Gary (vernon Center):

Where is my buddy Mike M. The giants proved to be the best and finally(excuse my language) shut those cocky S.O.B's up once and for all!!! GO GIANTS!!!!!!!

Posted February 3rd at 10:23 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

One of the Greatest moments in football history.....watching that sleak, cheat walk off the field with his tail between his legs....

OK back to weather.....New models still showing the SE trend with the second low???

Posted February 3rd at 10:26 PM
Matt Lanza:

I definitely think the play where Eli was sacked but ended up breaking free and Tyree made that ridiculous catch was quite possibly the best play I've ever watched.

Matt: At Rutgers I had Calc 1-4 (diff eq), synoptic I-II, weather systems, dynamics, thermodynamics, remote sensing and what equated to an atmospheric physics class. We also were required to take Physics I-II, Chem I-II and Bio I-II. I think the calc, synoptic, dynamics and thermo are basic requirements for any met. degree. I think everyone should realize that what we do on-air and even here is absolutely nothing compared to what you learn in college. It is heavy on math (calculus).

Posted February 3rd at 10:55 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Those are some tough courses.I really don't want to get that involved.Looking for something a little lighter.NAM still looks way warm and the GFS just isn't cold enough.Maybe some back end snows.

Posted February 3rd at 11:26 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

That warm front seems to be moving pretty good.Advisories already out for frz rain in WNY.

Posted February 3rd at 11:30 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

well i better step up my game....just like the giants did tonight, go giants!!!.....because im taking AP Calc in high school right now and all i can manage is 70s, it seems like the math we are learning now is pretty hard, cant wait for calc 2, and 3 in college. Matt, were you naturally good at math or did you have to actually study alot.....?

Posted February 4th at 12:03 AM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: I took AP Calc in high school too...and I managed to pull off 70s as well. But I was lucky enough to have a brilliant Calc I professor in college and I aced it...set me off. Calc 3 isn't that bad...but Calc 2 and Calc 4 (Diff Eq) are nasty...lots of studying for all of them, but especially those.

Off to bed...more tomorrow...don't hesitate to ask any questions about the learning process ever...we'll always be glad to share tips and advice.

Posted February 4th at 12:11 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, do you feel that you really understand and use Calc in weather....or was it just something you learn to pass the tests and now have forgotten( like the Diff EQ), just wondering? im off to bed also ill be back on in the morning.

Posted February 4th at 12:21 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

btw it is good to know that yes i can get 70s in AP high school calc and still be a meteorologist!!! thanks for all you time matt... you really do, do a good service for the community with this blog, keep up the good work!!!

Posted February 4th at 12:28 AM
Andrew (Whitesboro):

Went down to Punxsutawney to see Phil - it was definitely a good time; bigger crowd than usual because it was on a Saturday morning. (The organizers claimed 20,000 people; probably more like 6-8,000 were actually there.) Glad Whitesboro schools were closed Friday because the drive down was a little rough in spots and at least we got to do it in daylight!

Posted February 4th at 10:25 AM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: I've forgotten a lot. We don't use calculus on a day to day basis. In fact, since I've graduated, I haven't used it at all! They teach you it in college so that you can gain a complete physical and mathematical understanding of how the atmosphere works...which is great. If you decide to pursue research, you will need to retain the mathematics. If you want to do forecasting, be it on TV or elsewhere, you won't necessarily need to retain it, but you will still need to learn it. It took me a few classes to understand why I was suffering through so much calculus. But eventually the links were made in my met. classes...and it was kind of cool.

Posted February 4th at 10:45 AM
Tony (CNYWeather.com - Westmoreland):

I've updated my homepage. Lots less clutter I believe you all will like it better. CNYWeather.com

Posted February 4th at 10:56 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

I was never great in Math.Basically a C- student in that category.But when you mix math and weather,it becomes more interesting and I would probably do alot better.Tony nice job on your site!Looks like some heavy rain the next few days.Good thing we don't have much of a snow pack.About a 2" base here.

Posted February 4th at 12:01 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Since we are looking at rain this week might as well update seasonal totals. Up to 90.80 inches thus far this winter, with a snow pack of 13.5" on the ground. Quite a drive back from Nashua, NH on Friday afternoon from the Bershires back to here!

Posted February 4th at 1:38 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Seasonal Total 55.0"

Posted February 4th at 1:57 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

i agree with Rob math + weather = fun lol thanks matt for the great info, so at least i know what im in for over the next 4 yrs lol

Posted February 4th at 2:47 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Mike you can take classes right online too from PSU.I just found that out.You can get your degree and everything right from home.That's good for me because I work at home during the winter season.We'll have to keep a close eye on where this front sets up exactly late tomororw.NAM was a little cooler again.

Posted February 4th at 3:53 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

Rob, thats pretty sweet(online classes) and may be something to think about. as for the weather, the 18z NAM has again gone cold on us, and it tries to develop a coastal low wednesday and wed night. im going to wait to see the 00z tonight before i get tricked by the 18z run again like last night.

Posted February 4th at 4:18 PM
Matt Lanza:

Sorry guys, this is (still) a 90% rain event. Rain showers tonight (with freezing drizzle north and east of Utica, where temps are still in the upper 20s to low 30s). Showers develop after midnight. I'm including a chance of thunder as well. Rain throughout the day on Tuesday, with a few showers possible tomorrow night. Temps should hit the mid 40s during the evening. Temps won't drop much tomorrow night. Then on Wednesday, rain will re-develop and mix with and change to snow. A wet 1-3" is possible on Wednesday late afternoon/evening. I am also including the chance of a t'storm on Wednesday as well with the cold front. Then quiet weather until Saturday. More later.

Posted February 4th at 4:30 PM
randy Vitullo:

How much rain are expecting; one inch, two inches? I hope not..........flooding...........

Posted February 4th at 5:38 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY in effect for Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton, and Montgomery counties until 5a.m. Temperature is currently at 30.4 degrees with light snizzle and sleet. I'm still chipping the ice off the driveway from Friday's event.

Posted February 4th at 5:39 PM
Matt Lanza:

Randy: With the lack of serious snow pack, 1-2" will cause rises on area rivers and maybe some minor nuisance flooding, but nothing major.

The below freezing situation is interesting. We are doing better than we were last week with the freezing rain that hung on forever (Tues or Wed). But I think you'll get above freezing tomorrow...we're already ahead of the game. So we'll see. This is a tricky forecast, and while I do think this will be 90% rain for our area, I have to keep an eye on this, or we're going to see ice...again.

Posted February 4th at 6:15 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

there seems to be a decent clipper/coastal low on the 18z gfs for next saturday, then we would proabbyl get LES to follow. so we ahve some snow to look forward to.

Posted February 4th at 6:18 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Arctic cold blast, possible thundersnow with the cold front on Saturday night and then bitter cold with lake snows Sunday and Monday. Not anticipating a coastal storm...just your typical mid-winter cold shot.

Posted February 4th at 6:33 PM
Brian:

Matt, do you think Old Forge will hold onto its snow pack? Hopefully the rain and warm temperatures won't melt it all.

Posted February 4th at 6:40 PM
Matt Lanza:

Brian: Even with this warm up it will be tough to melt most of the pack in Old Forge. It certainly won't make it appealing on the eyes, but...it won't melt it. And with cold air to follow suit this week with some light snow...you'll be ok.

Posted February 4th at 6:43 PM
Big Mike by the falls in Forestport:

Drizzling here, right at the freezing mark, making local side roads slick.

Posted February 4th at 7:10 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Drizzle is freezing on the car...roads wet here.

Posted February 4th at 7:15 PM
Matt Lanza:

New entry is up.

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