Hurricane Earl's high impact along the East Coast...

Posted September 2nd, 2010 by Bill Kardas. 46 comments

We've been keeping tabs on the situation in the Atlantic over the past several days.  I wanted to give everyone an update on the situation here this morning, along with some thoughts from the weather center.  Here are some headlines:

-Hurricane Earl now up to a Category 4 storm (wind speed 145mph, gusts to 273mph)

-Will weaken but still have a major impact along the coast

-Track of storm will bring strong winds, heavy rain to coastal regions from North Carolina all the way up to Maine Friday and Saturday

You can read more about the potential impacts in the article I posted on our website by clicking here.

The track of the storm from the NHC has not changed all that much over the past 24 hours.  If anything, the track has slightly shifted to the west...not good news for the coast.  The reason why is that our cold front is slowing down.  We anticipated this happening earlier in the week, and that thought has come to fruition.  Our forecast models tend to have a cold bias with developing troughs, and we're seeing that again this weekend.

It's important to note that even if this hurricane does not technically make landfall, it will still cause damage.  Areas along New England are most vulnerable to heavy damage.  Homes in Long Island and the interior Cape are not built to sustain hurricane force winds, and there could be major damage in these areas if the hurricane bends any farther to the west.  One good thing going on in this scenario is that the left hand side of a hurricane has much weaker wind speeds compared to the right hand side.  This is all with respect to the direction the hurricane is going.  In our case, a northeast track brings the lesser winds to the northwest (top left) and strongest winds to the southeast (bottom right).  This could be the saving grace that could help alleviate the impact of this hurricane.  Not sure how well that will be covered in the national news, but thought it was important to bring that up here.

As for the weather in Central New York, today will be another hot day.  Today will likely be the second 90 degree day.  It won't be an official heat wave yet, as we only hit 86 on Tuesday.  It's possible we could hit 90 on Friday, but we'll have to see.  The cold front will slowly move in to Central New York, but will not have the kind of impact that many may think.  The front loses upper level support as Hurricane Earl gets involved to the east.  The threat for a few showers and thunderstorms exist, but the warm upper levels of the atmosphere will prevent any deep convection and severe weather from forming.

The cold pocket doesn't quite make it all the way into Central New York on Saturday.  It will still be cool and breezy, but the glancing shot of cool air will cause any lake effect rain to fall to the north.  The prevailing upper level winds will come from the west and southwest over the weekend, bringing the bands mainly across the Tug Hill and Western Adirondacks.  Light rain showers will accompany the secondary front here in Central New York.  Plenty of clouds and a very breezy afternoon will accompany all of this.  Welcome to fall.

The weather patterns do improve for Sunday, as the cold pocket begins to lift north.  A little more sunshine and slightly warmer conditions are possible.  Better weather by Labor day as warmer and drier air works into the area.

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Comments

  1. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Here’s a good site right along the NC Coast
    http://www.carolinastormwatch.com/index.php Got some streaming cams too.

    I’ve also noticed, that with this heat, in the 6th year my station has data from,the temps over the past week have been warmer than I’ve recorded so far for those dates. Some days in the end of August, beginning of September have never gotten to 80 or just above that.

    Posted September 2nd at 10:08 AM

  2. Becky (West Leyden):

    Lets see if Earl can get past 75W. It is on a northward trajectory however I still see some westward component to the motion.

    Posted September 2nd at 10:46 AM

  3. Becky (West Leyden):

    Nice link Tony

    Posted September 2nd at 10:47 AM

  4. Becky (West Leyden):

    He made it ..74.8W

    Posted September 2nd at 11:00 AM

  5. Becky (West Leyden):

    Here are live streaming TV stations

    WECT 6 – Wilmington, NC – http://www.wect.com/

    WITN 7 (NBC) – Eastern North Carolina TV – http://www.witn.com/

    WAVY 10 (NBC) – Hampton Roads/VA Beach, VA – http://www.wavy.com/

    Posted September 2nd at 11:11 AM

  6. Becky (West Leyden):

    Bill, when the USAF made its recon pass they showed Earl’s center is at 30.8N 75.1W, which is 18- 20 miles WSW of the NHC position. Is there any reason for this?

    Posted September 2nd at 11:40 AM

  7. Becky (West Leyden):

    Hurricane Earl’s 140 mph winds make him the third strongest Atlantic hurricane on record in U.S. coastal waters this far north. Only Hurricane Esther of 1961 and Hurricane Connie of 1955 made it farther north at a higher strength. Both storms had winds that were 145 mph .

    Posted September 2nd at 12:27 PM

  8. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    It depends on the observations. The eye often fluctuates in the hurricane, especially when it strengthens and weakens.

    Posted September 2nd at 12:29 PM

  9. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Good stat Becky.

    Posted September 2nd at 12:32 PM

  10. Becky (West Leyden):

    Thanks Bill, It just seemed peculiar to me.

    Posted September 2nd at 12:38 PM

  11. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Well it just made it to the 75W line…although the eye wall collapsed at the same time. Still looks like a close call. Getting dark here…almost looks like it wants to pour.

    Posted September 2nd at 1:28 PM

  12. Becky (West Leyden):

    I looked at BUFKIT and western NY could see quite a bit of lake effect rain with embedded thunder the CAPE value look very good small hail is a good bet with any thunderstorms tomorrow.

    Well Earl’s best is behind him. on visible radar his eye wall is all but gone. He put up a good fight with the dry air. We should start to see a rapid expansion of his wind field.

    Posted September 2nd at 3:52 PM

  13. Becky (West Leyden):

    Earl has finally hit the west wall there are indications he is starting his turn toward the east

    Posted September 2nd at 4:08 PM

  14. fairfield:

    high of 90 yesterday and 91 today

    Posted September 2nd at 7:50 PM

  15. Becky (West Leyden):

    Yeah, It looks like Front will be here after 7 pm. bring rain and some thunderstorms. tomorrow we will have breezy conditions winds will be 30-40 mph with some higher gust on the hilltops. BUFKIT shows Lake Effect Rain east of lake Ontario. The cool air will only last over the weekend , as a warm front comes though Monday bringing temps back up to normal.

    Posted September 3rd at 12:01 PM

  16. Becky (West Leyden):

    Looks like the spammers found a new way to get on the blog. I would not click on any links in Gaoyan post. You don’t know where they go.

    Posted September 3rd at 12:08 PM

  17. jessie (ilion):

    ok so it looks like the rain and possiable thunderstorms are on there way into my area cant wait for it to cool down alot this heat is killing me LOL

    Posted September 3rd at 8:13 PM

  18. kari:

    I do not see any rain coming here plus ktv has no weather update on the web since 6: 30 this morning. Look at the radar on weather underground rain is no where near us.

    Posted September 3rd at 8:28 PM

  19. jessie:

    Well there was a lot of raining radar and now not so much can someone let us know what’s going on please thx Jessie also dropped 9 degrees in about 45minutes

    Posted September 3rd at 8:53 PM

  20. Adam Musyt:

    Earl has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm as of the 11:00 NHC advisory.

    The revised track is considerably more to the east than earlier thinking. As a result, all hurricane warnings have been dropped. Tropical Storm warning are in effect for much of Massachusetts and Downeast Maine.

    Posted September 3rd at 10:53 PM

  21. Becky (West Leyden):

    Kari and Jessie, I would expect The showers to be isolated tonight. any rain should be light. AS for tomorrow, Soundings show we have very unstable boundary layer. everything points to a very decent rain event downwind of Lake Ontario. parts of the Tug will see quite a bit of rain, If you’re outside the LER bands the biggest thing you will notice will be strong winds 20-35 mph with higher gust maybe over 40 mph, especially over higher elevations.

    Posted September 3rd at 11:02 PM

  22. Becky (West Leyden):

    Getting a little light rain, temp is 64

    Posted September 3rd at 11:10 PM

  23. Sarah:

    Ok…so….it didn’t rain last night, the sun is out and it is not windy! Confused about what this crazy weather is doing!

    Posted September 4th at 7:21 AM

  24. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Secondary cold front is moving in this morning and behind it, expect winds to pick up between 15-30mph. The best chance of rain today and tomorrow will be the thruway and points north. The lake effect rain band looks to set up in that location.

    Posted September 4th at 9:16 AM

  25. Becky (West Leyden):

    Winds are gusting as high as 41 mph around the Buffalo area this morning. Our winds should increase into the afternoon. I still think gust as high as 45 mph are not out of the question up here on the Tughill. The LER band in Jefferson County is look very impressive considering it’s the 4th of September. The band should move over the Tug by the early afternoon. When I looked at BUFKIT yesterday I thought there would have be some embedded thunder in the band, I guess there is still time Oh well can’t have everything I guess ; )

    Posted September 4th at 10:33 AM

  26. Becky (West Leyden):

    Jill do you think the LLS that’s influencing a lack of lake effect development on Erie will be a factor on the Ontario band later around the 3-4 PM time frame?

    Posted September 4th at 10:41 AM

  27. kelly:

    heading to darien lake 2marrow can anyone tell me what the weather will be like there….

    Posted September 4th at 11:54 AM

  28. Becky (West Leyden):

    Kelly,The weather will be improving tomorrow. However, it will still be cool and breezy with isolated showers. There will be more in the way of sunshine the farther into the afternoon you go.

    Posted September 4th at 3:42 PM

  29. Tony - CNYWeather.com:

    Amazing watching lake effect bands off the lake up north. Quite a difference in temps over the past 24 hours.

    Posted September 4th at 6:14 PM

  30. nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    It’s crazy to look at the current radar; you’d think it was early December with those bands coming right off the lakes.

    Posted September 4th at 8:29 PM

  31. fairfield:

    peak gust of 46 mph, high of 68 today

    Posted September 4th at 9:33 PM

  32. Becky (West Leyden):

    You beat me fairfield, I only had a 40 mph gust. : )

    Posted September 4th at 9:54 PM

  33. Becky (West Leyden):

    I missed this earlier.

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
    644 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

    NYZ006>008-042345-
    OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
    644 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

    ...STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE TUG HILL THIS EVENING...

    WHILE WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE TUG
    HILL PLATEAU THROUGH SUNSET...SHOWERS CROSSING THE TUG BETWEEN
    6:45 AND 7:45 THIS EVENING MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY WINDS AS HIGH AS
    50 MPH. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND SPOTTY
    POWER OUTAGES. THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY
    MORE ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT RAINS LATER TONIGHT THAT WILL INCLUDE
    TIMES OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH THUNDER AND LIGHTNING.

    Posted September 4th at 10:00 PM

  34. Becky (West Leyden):

    Right now, I’m getting moderate rain. temp is 48

    Posted September 4th at 10:03 PM

  35. Jill Reale (Utica):

    This lake effect band will not give up. I was looking at our RainVision on our Radar computer and it is showing 2-3“of rainfall in Oswego County. I will post the image later. If only it was winter….

    Posted September 5th at 7:14 AM

  36. MG(Point Rock):

    The COCORAHS observer in Lacona, Oswego county reported 2.01 inches of rain. Here, I only had 0.20 as of 7 AM, but I have been getting moderate rain since

    Posted September 5th at 8:39 AM

  37. Becky (West Leyden):

    The band looks very Impressive on radar. So far, I have picked up 0.73 of an inch of rain. From what I’ve seen the band will stay parked over the same general area for most of the afternoon.

    Posted September 5th at 10:48 AM

  38. Becky (West Leyden):

    Jill you’re right about that, if this had been December, Redfield would have had one of their classic 40 inches in less than 24 hour events.

    Posted September 5th at 10:53 AM

  39. Becky (West Leyden):

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED AN

    • URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

    OSWEGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

    • UNTIL 115 PM EDT

    • AT 819 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

    BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT RAIN OVER CENTRAL OSWEGO COUNTY. DOPPLER
    RADAR ESTIMATES THAT UP TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVERNIGHT
    ALONG THE ROUTE 104 CORRIDOR FROM OSWEGO AND SCRIBA EAST THROUGH
    MEXICO. THE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
    STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
    NORTH BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
    POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS ALONG ROUTE 104 FROM OSWEGO EAST
    THROUGH MEXICO AND WILLIAMSTOWN.

    EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN RAPID RISES ON
    SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. MINOR FLOODING IS LIKELY IN LOW LYING AND
    POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

    • SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...

    LAKE ONTARIO FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO MEXICO BAY

    • UNTIL 1100 AM EDT

    • AT 853 AM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A WATERSPOUT NEAR OSWEGO.

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A BAND OF LAKE
    EFFECT RAIN A FEW MILES OFFSHORE FROM NEAR HAMLIN BEACH EAST TO
    FAIR HAVEN...THEN EXTENDING ONSHORE NEAR OSWEGO. CONDITIONS ARE
    FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUTS IN AND
    NEAR THIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN THIS MORNING.

    • WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE

    ONTARIO FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO MEXICO BAY THIS MORNING.

    Posted September 5th at 10:54 AM

  40. Becky (West Leyden):

    This event shows just how warm the lakes are, It’s a good indicator of what winter will be like downwind of Ontario

    Posted September 5th at 11:01 AM

  41. Sarah:

    I was kind of thinking what Becky was saying today too. We could have an interesting winter this year. I can only imagine how warm the lakes are with as hot a summer it has been.

    Posted September 5th at 3:09 PM

  42. Tony - CNYWeather.com:

    The lake is still closed to 70 degrees last I knew. Could be a quite eventful winter like Becky said.

    Posted September 5th at 5:56 PM

  43. Jill Reale (Utica):

    As of August 29th, Lake Ontario was at 23°C or 73.4°F.

    Posted September 5th at 6:02 PM

  44. Becky (West Leyden):

    The temp up here is 53 and winds are W at 8 mph. The good thing is the rain has finally stopped. the cool damp air will be replaced by southerly winds tomorrow afternoon. so Monday will be a lot nicer than today. Tuesday is looking warmer still. Unfortunately a cold front will be approaching Tuesday night which will bring showers late Wednesday morning into the afternoon. The ECMWF extended long-range model still shows taken overall that the next 6-8 weeks will be warmer than average. so the Big Lake won’t be cooling off very fast for the foreseeable future.

    Posted September 5th at 6:37 PM

  45. Tony - CNYWeather.com:

    Hope you are ready for lots of snow then Becky if the lake takes a long time to cool this fall.

    Posted September 5th at 7:33 PM

  46. Jill Reale (Utica):

    new entry up

    Posted September 5th at 8:53 PM

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