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Severe weather in the mid west continues this morning. The same system is now moving into Central New York today, but it will produce much different weather. We only expect mainly rain, wind, and an isolated thunderstorm out of this. Why so different?

Severe weather is caused by instability in the atmosphere and strong wind shear. Instability is what we think of when we think of hot, humid summer afternoons. The warm temperatures and moisture near the surface are a major source of energy for thunderstorms. Wind shear is necesary to grow and sustain thunderstorms. Wind shear helps to separate the updraft and downdraft in a thunderstorm. Without this separation, the downdraft eventually overpowers and supresses the updraft. Without wind shear, storms are much weaker and don't last for more than an hour.

Everything lined up perfectly out in the mid west yesterday and last night for a major severe weather outbreak. This same system though will be running into a very different scenario as it heads into Central New York. The major difference is the stability factor. Clouds and showers ahead of this system will keep temperatures cool here this morning. That wasn't the case in the midwest yesterday. Dewpoints, a measure of the amount of moisture in the air, are going to be much lower here too. Also, vorticity, a measure of lifting air, will not be anywhere near as strong here. The jet stream setup has a lot to do with that.

One thing we will see this afternoon will be the wind. Winds will rip out of the south/southeast 15-25mph, with gusts well into the 30s. It's unusual to see winds this strong without a major temperature gradient. Showers will continue this morning, with maybe a letup in the precipitation this afternoon. The front will be accompanied by heavier rain showers, and maybe a rumble of thunder.

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Bill Kardas:

As expected, very windy today. Latest wind gust in buffalo up to 43mph. Syracuse gusted to 39mph in the last hour! Winds are going to worsen as the front approaches. We could see gusts over 40mph in spots this afternoon as the front crosses!

Posted May 14th at 10:47 AM
Kenny (South utica):

Scanner is going crazy with trees and wires down all over the county…have been hearing fuses pop on area poles for the past hour…...wife said lots of debris in the roadways on her way into work….nasty nasty day.

Posted May 14th at 11:04 AM
Kenny (South utica):

how is it there is not a wind advisory or warning up today.

Posted May 14th at 11:10 AM
sn (forestport):

geez I should have stayed on vacation a little longer – got back tuesday night and it was cold in comparrison to where I was (in the poconos) and now we have wind and rain and its kinda cold and damp today.

Posted May 14th at 11:13 AM
Debbie (between Waterville & Clinton):

It is so windy here that I just had to move all my deck furniture in side my house. Im not finding any info on this wind anywhere, especially not on the 40+ gusts outside my house.

Posted May 14th at 11:15 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Half a tree down in my neighbors yard. 50+ mph winds here!

Posted May 14th at 11:19 AM
Matt (Utica):

The gusts here have to be at least 35+ mph… the trees are swaying and blowing around and when the wind hit my house it sounded like a freight train… crazy stuff… why IS there no warning or advisory out? Weird.

Posted May 14th at 11:21 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

11,000+ without power in Onondaga/Madison counties.

Posted May 14th at 11:25 AM
Kenny (South utica):

there has got to be alot without power in oneida county now too…scanner is almost non stop

Posted May 14th at 11:29 AM
Kenny (South utica):

close to 1200 without power in oneida now

Posted May 14th at 11:35 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Albany just issued a Warning for high winds in S. Herekimer county for winds up to 60mph.

Posted May 14th at 11:42 AM
Kenny (South utica):

National grid is now showing 5700 plus in oneida county with no power and some estimatated time of returning power is 11pm

Posted May 14th at 11:46 AM
Matt (Utica):

Wow it is crazy out there! this was out of the blue… ive heard things breaking and crashing for the past 20 min. I went outside to watch and i almost got blown off my feet at one point and i just came in (for the fear of a tree falling on me).

Thats a LOT without power… Im guessing im probably going to lose power sooner or later… the storm is nasty. Seriously like a small hurricane… anyone with me? Seems to have calmed down a little on my end…

Hey isnt this like one of those Derecho’s they talk about? Just a mini version?

Posted May 14th at 11:49 AM
Kenny (South utica):

it is nasty out…and seems to be getting worse if you listen to the scanner…..Im suprised actually that i still have power…..willowvale is out to a tree on a house on oneida st with severe damage to the structure even.

Posted May 14th at 11:53 AM
Matt (Utica):

Doesnt surprise me about the tree, there are probably a ton of them down, i was worried about the huge pine next to my house toppling over. Nothing like look out your window (or to your right in my case, i was outside…) and seeing a 50ft tall pine tree starting to bend over. Calmed down for the most part here tho… still a little windy, but nothing like earlier…

Posted May 14th at 11:55 AM
Bill Kardas:

The worst of the winds have been concentrated in the valley…at least the majority of the damage reports have been gathered there. The hardest places hit include Clinton, New Hartford, and Kirkland. From what I gather, with the size of the limbs that have been coming down winds had to have gusted 40+mph. Worst wind I’ve seen here on Smith Hill. Our anemometer is not working, but I’d estimate gusts up to 40mph up here. Winds are expected to remain strong for the next few hours, but gradually ease back as we head into the afternoon and evening.

Posted May 14th at 12:04 PM
Bill Kardas:

High wind warning for Southern Herkimer County until 7 PM

Posted May 14th at 12:09 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Highest wind report I’ve seen so far was 47mph in Westmo.

Posted May 14th at 12:21 PM
bets west leyden:

When the front passes are we under any bad thunderstorms we have to worry about? up on the hill winds are gusting at the max trees bent over also ,, stopped raining for a hour now but still very dark out 58*

Posted May 14th at 12:42 PM
Bill Kardas:

The pressure gradient will weak this afternoon. It’s very impressive to see winds mix down to the surface in a setup like this. In the colder season, this typically doesn’t happen, as an inversion usually caps wind to higher elevations only. A very unsual event indeed.

Posted May 14th at 12:48 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

60 mph wind gust in Dunkirk a few hours ago.

Posted May 14th at 12:56 PM
jessie:

so guys the winds are blowing good here in ilion very dark clouds down towards utica area looked on radar and it does not show any rain that way but still very dark out that way any idea if rain will be moving in or any thunder storms about 230ish so i know if i should pick up the kids or let them walk home

Posted May 14th at 1:29 PM
Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

Well 47 was the last reported. The power has been out since around 11 and Nat. Grid says we’ll get it back by 11pm tonight, so now wind reports till then

Posted May 14th at 2:49 PM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Pretty steady wind all day long with numerous reports of trees down and wires down. A pretty good heavy downpour at this time as well.

Posted May 14th at 3:30 PM
Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

Power back on now.

47mph it is for peak gust. I only saw 30mph for Griffiss??

So Adam and gang, was some of the jet winds mixing down with the rain this morning?

Posted May 14th at 4:29 PM
Adam Musyt:

Tony,

There definitely was some mixing down of higher winds aloft to the surface. Bill and I were discussing this earlier and we’ve come to the conclusion that it probably was a combination of factors.

It appears that terrain played a part. Areas in the valley saw particularly high winds. Perhaps this could be explained by the wind having an easier time mixing down in this area due to downsloping from the higher terrain further south.

Also of note is that on last night’s 00z run of the WRF, the Atlantic high pressure ridge instensifed from 1032 mb to about 1038 mb this morning and only slowly edged east. At the same time, that cold front was getting closer and closer to CNY. The pressure gradient intensified quite a bit over the large scale. So no doubt, synoptics favored increased winds during the day today as well.

Posted May 14th at 6:58 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Looks like the models are already showing a tropical wave/depression next week in the southeast. Hurricane season is approaching fast!

Posted May 14th at 7:43 PM
NATE(little falls):

there was a tree that fell in my down in my yard yesterday with a few branches down

Posted May 15th at 10:26 AM
Bill Kardas:

Tomorrow’s threat of severe weather has gone up a bit…our high temperatures are likely to be in the upper 70s with dewpoints in the upper 50s to near 60. The timing of the cold front is also a bit slower, now progged to move in late in the day. Anything that fires out ahead of the front has the potential to turn severe, especially if we bust out into sunshine in the morning and afternoon. We’ll keep monitoring the situation.

Posted May 15th at 10:45 AM
JESSIE:

JUST WONDERING NOW THAT IS CLOSER TO TOMORROW WHEN DO YOU THINK THE STORMS MIGHT START FIRING TOMORROW SO I KNOW WHEN TO TELL EVERYONE TO BE AT MY HOUSE TO HELP ME MOVE THANKS GUYS

Posted May 15th at 11:13 AM
Bill Kardas:

Jessie,

The main line will roll in late in the day, but in this sort of setup, isolated storms can fire up at any point in the afternoon.

Posted May 15th at 12:26 PM
Adam Musyt:

SPC has the area in "slight risk" for severe thunderstorms tomorrow.

Any thunderstorms that fire could have gusty winds, heavy rain, hail, lots of lightning. We’re going to keep a close eye on the weather for tomorrow. I’ll have a new blog entry later this evening.

Posted May 15th at 3:04 PM
Matt S. (Deerfield):

I love thunderstorms. I hope we see something here in Deerfield tomorrow.

Posted May 15th at 3:34 PM

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