Heavy lake effect snow moving into region...

Posted February 10th, 2008 by Bill Kardas. 89 comments

Now that we have our blog back on track, it's time to get into something we like to talk about around here: lake effect. A heavy band is already set up across the Tug Hill and is slowly making progress southward. The strong winds have allowed the band to extend over 80 miles inland. We will continue to see this band drift south throughout the night and eventually park itself over the Mohawk Valley by tomorrow morning. The setup is great: ample cold air (temperatures are already in the single digits at the surface and -20 at 850) high inversion, and low shear. The best conditions for lake effect will remain locked in place for the remainder of the night.

Tomorrow morning, things start to change. The inversion drops greatly, wind shear increases, and daytime heating begins. All three of these elements will weaken the lake band. However, I still think that some areas, especially closer to the lakes, will score some decent snow out of this regardless.

A few things to watch tonight: winds & temperature. The winds have created sub zero wind chills across the region, prompting the NWS to issue wind chill advisories. The winds have also created a mess on the roadways with blowing and drifting snow just about everywhere. Look for this to continue tonight as well. As for the lake effect, any areas under the gun tonight should experience near blizzard like conditions with heavy snow, whiteouts due to the snow and wind, and blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures will get cold, especially outside of the lake bands. Clear skies and a cold airmass will allow temperatures to fall near or below zero in some locations.

As far as the total snowfall forecast, we did not play this one conservative. The totals you see on the board are about as high as we would go with the data we have in hand. If this plays out like we think it should, it's possible that the Tug Hill folks could walk away with over 2 feet. Most of the significant accumulations will stay across NW Oneida county, but the strong winds will spread heavy snow into most of Oneida County (from Rome north). The Mohawk Valley should get a modest snowfall out of this one, but it wouldn't take much at all (a wind shift) for the valley to tap or not into this snow. That's where all the volitility to this forecast happens to be.

Those of you living south of route 20 are probably not going to walk away with much out of this one. There's plenty of winter left though.

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  1. Gina ( Trenton Falls):

    It has been lightly snowing and blowing for a while now....just took the pups, I must say this is the coldest I think it has been all winter...wind has been picking up and snow getting a little heavier now...

    Stay safe all....give the plows a chance out there.

    Have an appointment in syracuse in the morning...should be a fun ride!

    Posted February 10th at 10:07 PM

  2. Cindy (ilion):

    Bill, I'm always confused about the Mohawk Valley. I'm in ilion and am considered the Mohawk Valley, but very close to the thruway so does that mean ilion is "probaly not going to walk away with much" or are we part of the "The Mohawk Valley should get a modest snowfall out of this one"?

    Posted February 10th at 10:11 PM

  3. Bill Kardas:

    Cindy,

    I meant route 20 not the Thruway. Sorry.

    Posted February 10th at 10:14 PM

  4. stevo (rome):

    Bring on the snow!!!!!!! woooohoooo!!!!!!!!

    Posted February 10th at 10:18 PM

  5. Bill Kardas:

    Steveo,

    Keep me in the loop with how much you get. Rome could do well....5-9"

    Posted February 10th at 10:20 PM

  6. ken:

    bill,with a little shift of wind can utica get into the heavy action.

    Posted February 10th at 10:21 PM

  7. R. Kubecka Mohawk:

    I Like SNOW!! HAHA!!

    Posted February 10th at 10:21 PM

  8. Bill Kardas:

    Ken,

    Certainly, but keep in mind it could go equally the other way. Utica's the hardest spot to forecast for this time around. The band probably will set up just north. With lake effect it's typically all or nothing.

    Posted February 10th at 10:27 PM

  9. Matt HP:

    Im assuming anyone that lives near the 365 corridor should do well?

    Posted February 10th at 10:42 PM

  10. RJL :

    It looks like a short wave is interacting with snowband. It also has widened the band of snow. The axis of the band seems to be moving north again, but upstream radar is more NW in wind patterns. Also clouds are rotating in from canada. I drove in from Lake Placid today almost - 3 feet of snow on the ground.

    Posted February 10th at 10:43 PM

  11. stevo (rome):

    no problem bill ill let you know. Hey Bill? Are we gonna be able to get looping radar back on the page?

    Posted February 10th at 10:48 PM

  12. Becky (West Leyden):

    The LES is still falling hard. it has been one to three plus inches per hour from 5 thru now. we have picked up 13 inches of snow from one O'clock, that added to the 6 inches over night and this morning gives us a storm total of 19 inches. The winds are 20 mph from the NW. Route 26 is still closed. the state pulled the plows about four hours ago. making driving impossible. winds are causing White out conditions

    Posted February 10th at 10:51 PM

  13. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    3.9 degrees here with flurries and blowing snow. Picked up 2" inches of snow since this morning. I know we have our hand full with the lake effect, but I also wanted to throw out what NWS Albany said in their HWO. "A storm could bring a significant snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday". Sounds interesting!

    Posted February 10th at 10:58 PM

  14. Cindy (ilion):

    From the radar it looks like the band doesn't extend as far east as it was just some time ago. What happened?

    Posted February 10th at 10:59 PM

  15. Rob(whitesboro):

    Just starting to see an upper lakes connection now.Between that and the wave hopefully this band will start to crank and shift a few miles more south.Theres nothing worse then being on the fringes of a lake band.Just when it starts to snow here it stops.

    Posted February 10th at 11:09 PM

  16. Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

    Between last night and tonight we have only picked up 1.75 inches so im really hoping for at least 4 or 5 inches more tonight and tommorow.

    Posted February 10th at 11:15 PM

  17. Bill Kardas:

    Michael,

    Tuesday's storm looks pretty sweet too. Not a heavy snowfall, but certainly a moderate, widespread snowfall. One thing at a time though.

    Posted February 10th at 11:28 PM

  18. Becky(West Leyden):

    Were still having ground blizzard conditions, winds are just howling. The Temperate here is -1. with these blustery winds its making an impressive wind chill. I Went outside and the driveway has Three and four foot drifts.

    Posted February 10th at 11:41 PM

  19. Becky (West Leyden):

    That should say the temperature is -1

    Posted February 10th at 11:43 PM

  20. Matt HP:

    Its just lightly flurring here. And Im at 7 degrees. I sit here just thinking COMEON SNOW DANG IT!!!!

    Posted February 11th at 12:01 AM

  21. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Down to 1 degree down here. Looks like we stay out of the fun from this storm! picked up a solid 3 inches in the last 2 days. Herees hopin that Tuesday/Wednesday storm doesnt go East....

    Posted February 11th at 12:08 AM

  22. Rob(whitesboro):

    Well at least the band intensified...but it didn't make its move south.I guess we just got to be patient.

    Posted February 11th at 12:10 AM

  23. Matt Lanza:

    I think the Tuesday night system will be a decent one...one we haven't had in awhile, where a lot of the area gets in on something like 3-6". As Bill said...not a big one, but certainly a decent one. Lake snow is showing some signs of edging south, but at a snail's pace. But by morning, I would suspect it's closer than it is now.

    Posted February 11th at 12:11 AM

  24. Josh (Salisbury):

    The way this winter has been going, all we can do is be happy with and take advantage of what comes our way. Ill take any snow we can get to salvage this winter for the adirondacks and CNY.. I'd like to say thanks to Michael for updating snow totals for my area as im often in the valley or out of town so it is hard sometimes to know what the higher elevations got as opposed to "the valley".

    Posted February 11th at 12:36 AM

  25. Rhea:

    It is close to 2 a.m. and we, in the Steuben area are getting bombed with snow, and it is bitter cold. It has been snowing heavily here for a couple of hours. That one foot of snow does not seem to be far fetched at this point, unless it stops soon.
    Josh, I hope you are getting this for your sake, but I can live without it, lol.

    Posted February 11th at 1:57 AM

  26. Matt HP:

    Seems like im stuck on the outside, not snowing enough to get excited about, just seems like light squalls, maybe a half inch an hour.

    Posted February 11th at 3:33 AM

  27. Karen:

    Woodgate has a solid 10 inches of snow so far. Its clear at the moment but temps are dropping -2 now and on the fall. Still a bit windy as well!

    Posted February 11th at 4:53 AM

  28. Matt HP:

    Roads are really bad and emergency vehicles are complaining about the drifts.

    Posted February 11th at 5:11 AM

  29. Kevin (Seneca County):

    Winter Storm Watches are now up across the area for Tuesday and Tuesday night's storm.

    Posted February 11th at 6:48 AM

  30. stevo (rome):

    Bill, we didnt get much in Rome. so far about 4". Hard to measure with the drifting.Some spots are almost bare and others have 1 foot drifts. its crazy!!!!

    Posted February 11th at 8:15 AM

  31. Jim in North Utica:

    I am unable to get to WKTV's web site. Is it down? I have no problem getting to any other sites. I had to google Linkjam to find this page, I was panicking, lol, I am addicted to the weather and this blog! Now I have bookmarked it. Cold and a little blustery here, very little overnight accum and I'm off to take my son to school.

    Posted February 11th at 8:45 AM

  32. Lisa:

    I am unable to reach WKTV's site also, but had the blog bookmarked. Blue skies in Frankfort with very fast moving clouds. Light wind with stronger gusts. Visibility seems fine, but I wonder about up on the hills!

    Posted February 11th at 9:06 AM

  33. Mel (Westernville):

    7" of new snow overnight - still snowing lightly

    Posted February 11th at 9:14 AM

  34. Rob(whitesboro):

    Not a happy camper this morning.I peaked at radar at about 3AM and figured this would probably be the outcome for me.Only 1/2" has fallen here from the LES.Only other report I could find was in Point Rock where they picked up 9".

    Posted February 11th at 9:17 AM

  35. Gary (Schuyler) at work in Syracuse:

    Rob, We were right in line with the trajectory for LES to hit Utica, but again, it fizzles at our door step. I know I sound like a broken record (remember those?) but through the many years (most that blog here are young enough to by my child) this has been the case when the temperature/dewpoint are near 0. I would venture to say, if the temperature were up in the teens or so, the band would have extended inland further. If you remember last year, the biggest LES to hit Utica was when the temperature/dewpoint were higher. I remember 14 inches in Schuyler on that one.

    Posted February 11th at 9:37 AM

  36. Mel (Westernville):

    Rob - I honestly thought we would have ended up with more. Left the floodlights on overnight and everytime I peeked it was coming down fast and furious. Little disappointed in the total this morning.

    Posted February 11th at 9:41 AM

  37. Matt Lanza:

    Very interesting how this thing just completely retracted to the lakeshore. It's tough this year it seems. South Redfield is reporting 3 feet of new snow.

    Just caught the new regional WRF, it shows significant banding potential (heavy snow) immediately north and east of Utica tomorrow night, potentially very close to the Mohawk Valley. I would venture to say that Warnings will be issued for the Valley and points north, with advisories west (Onondaga). It's a toss up south of here, but total precip being advertised in Otsego County is 0.50-0.75". In this cold air, that would probably be warning over advisory.

    The one monkey wrench in all this? Sleet. Extremely warm air a few thousand feet up is going to rush in overnight, around or just after the height of the storm. While I think places from the Valley points north will not change over during the heaviest precipitation, I do think south of Utica, there stands a good chance of a period of sleet mixing in (specifically south of Rt 20). This would drastically cut back snow totals there. Much more on this tonight.

    Posted February 11th at 9:56 AM

  38. MJ (Trenton):

    Well.....sounds nice. I'll wait till Wed. before I get too excited.
    The realist in me says to prepare for disappointment, probably 1" snow followed by 1/2" sleet, finish it off with some plain rain.
    Hard to be an optimist when you continually "just miss".
    Another LES event that didn't quite make it.
    When's the next warmup?

    Posted February 11th at 10:50 AM

  39. Lisa-oriskany:

    Matt- The drive home this afternoon should be a little better than this morning right? Utica area isnt expecting much more snow right? As far as the snow stuff tomorrow night, will it be worse than last night?

    Posted February 11th at 10:52 AM

  40. Matt Lanza:

    Lisa: I would imagine so. Lake snow may try and lift back north later (unsure on the time), but when that happens, the band will briefly lift through our area. As for tomorrow night, I think so. This appear to be a widespread significant snow. This will likely be our biggest snow certainly since New Years and potentially since the mid December storm.

    Latest GFS is in and has quite a bit of precip with this event. This will be very interesting.

    Posted February 11th at 11:03 AM

  41. Rose (Utica):

    Matt... So the totals on the map are no longer correct?

    Posted February 11th at 11:18 AM

  42. Rob(whitesboro):

    Mel radar looked pretty good up there lastnight.I thought you would of had at least a foot myself.Snow ratios are usually close to 40:1 when you have temps in the single digits.GFS sure does look interesting.Would like to see it a little cooler though.If QPF was all snow we would be looking at close to a foot of snow.

    Posted February 11th at 11:44 AM

  43. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Matt, after taking a look at the latest models where would you say the heaviest snow would fall? Hopefully northern oneida and herkimer county!

    Posted February 11th at 11:45 AM

  44. Matt Lanza:

    Rose: No, the totals on that map were for lake effect. Nothing has been issued regarding the upcoming storm. That comes tonight.

    Posted February 11th at 11:45 AM

  45. Matt Lanza:

    Justin: You bet. Looks like a southern Adirondack special right now. We'll see.

    Posted February 11th at 11:46 AM

  46. Tim(Salisbury):

    We picked up about 10" of Snow since Saturday. Only 9 degrees.

    Posted February 11th at 11:49 AM

  47. James:

    Matt: Thanks for cleaning up the blog yesterday, it was greatly appreciated by many I am sure. Lets hope that tomorrow will be the one that we have been waiting for. Any idea what time the snow is expected to arrive.

    Posted February 11th at 11:55 AM

  48. Ann:

    Matt, What do you think the amount of snow for the Little Falls/Dolgeville area will look like?

    Posted February 11th at 12:04 PM

  49. Matt Lanza:

    James: No problem. Looking like a mid afternoon start time, with the brunt of the storm occurring between sunset and sunrise.

    Posted February 11th at 12:05 PM

  50. Sarah:

    Anyone know why we can't get into the main WKTV website?

    Posted February 11th at 12:12 PM

  51. Donna (Alder Creek):

    I have no problems getting into the WKTV website. Have you done a refresh on the page sometimes that helps.

    Posted February 11th at 12:29 PM

  52. Rhea (Steuben):

    We did get a lot of snow overnight, but hard to measure due to snow drifts. We have an old car sitting side of the barn, and it is buried, lol.
    Matt, do we know much about the weather for thursday night-friday morning? My daughter and I are taking a flight from syracuse, to Pittsburgh, to Phoenix to Mexico, and I am hoping and praying we don't run into any bad weather, and have our flight cancelled, or not be able to make it to the airport!!

    Posted February 11th at 12:29 PM

  53. Rich:

    I've tried to get into the WKTV web site all morning. Still can't get in. I'm tring to sign up for the weather email service. I can get to the blog but can't go to any other pages.

    Posted February 11th at 12:44 PM

  54. lisa (Rome):

    Up here on base, pretty windy but not much snow. Is that going to change? Rather have the snow than those biting windchills.

    Posted February 11th at 12:49 PM

  55. Karen ~Westmoreland:

    I am also having a problem signing on to the WKTV website...I have tried all morning and finally was able to get through using my AOL browser instead of my usual one....

    Posted February 11th at 12:52 PM

  56. Mel (Westernville):

    Snow just picked back up in intensity here.

    Posted February 11th at 1:07 PM

  57. Jim:

    I work in Oneida and live in Lee Center. Almost no snow here at work. Sun shining. Windy though.

    Posted February 11th at 1:09 PM

  58. Rob(whitesboro):

    Light to moderate bursts here as well the past 15 minutes.Lake band is trying to push inland again.Springfield Missouri has had thunderstorms for the past 5 hours that are dropping freezing rain.Major icing occuring there.

    Posted February 11th at 1:22 PM

  59. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Just took a look at the latest gfs and i noticed a possible nor' easter next sunday or monday. Matt is there a possibility that this could develop?

    Posted February 11th at 2:55 PM

  60. mike m ( binghamton):

    im sure NWS BGM will issue warnings momentarily, now thw only question is the mid level warm layer, and how quickly it gets where? this looks like a 6 incher followed by sleet for BGM as of right now and a 8-10 inch storm with some periods of sleet for utica.

    Posted February 11th at 3:31 PM

  61. Barb (Lee Center):

    OK...what's the deal here. The radar does not show that the clouds are even close to us...and it is snowing like crazy here...really. It is snowing so hard here that you cannot even see across the road. Am I missing something?????

    Posted February 11th at 3:43 PM

  62. Rob(whitesboro):

    Mike if we can keep sleet out of this storm we will be very happy.It's been snowing on and off here too.A lake band has set-up on a Camden-Rome-WKTV line.

    Posted February 11th at 3:46 PM

  63. Dom Tech (Oriskany):

    No snow here, dusting this morning, sun is out now.

    Posted February 11th at 3:47 PM

  64. Barb (Lee Center):

    Rob...it looks like a sliver...geesh. It is really coming down here.

    Posted February 11th at 3:50 PM

  65. Matt Lanza:

    NWS Binghamton will not be issuing warnings this afternoon. There are serious questions as to a.) enough snow falls to warrant a warning and b.) how much sleet mixes. I'm not sure if Albany will upgrade, but Oneida, Madison, Otsego and Chenango will not be under warnings this evening.

    Posted February 11th at 3:52 PM

  66. mike m ( binghamton):

    wow that is a surprise!!! and a bad one at that.

    Posted February 11th at 4:00 PM

  67. Cindy (ilion(:

    There is already a winter storm watch up for Tues evening through Weds. evening for my area. I hope we get some good snow out of this one. I am really sick of getting ripped off out of every other snow event.

    Posted February 11th at 4:03 PM

  68. Jim:

    Barb how much is piling up in Lee Center? Still sunny here in Oneida.

    Posted February 11th at 4:11 PM

  69. Barb (Lee Center):

    Jim...looks like at least three to four inches since I got home at 2:30. I have to go back to work in another half hour in Rome...I am interested to see if it is snowing in the city. When I left it wasn't snowing at all in the city...then right before Potter Road it hit. Gotta' love CNY!!!

    Posted February 11th at 4:21 PM

  70. Barb (Lee Center):

    Jim....also hard to tell though (snow amount)...it is very windy up here...

    Posted February 11th at 4:22 PM

  71. stevo (rome):

    this lake effect is really weird. im in rome and all we have here is light to moderate snow showers. nothing heavy. not even enough to be considered light snow.oh and the sn is shining.

    Posted February 11th at 4:25 PM

  72. stevo (rome):

    we only got about 5" here since last night. i dont even know why they closed school. Its really killing my paycheck though considering im a schoolbus driver.

    Posted February 11th at 4:28 PM

  73. stevo (rome):

    potter road is only about 4 miles from me. crazy!!!

    Posted February 11th at 4:32 PM

  74. Jim:

    Thanks Barb. I am stuck here at work until 8. Wonder how the drive will be by then. Good part is I am off tomorrow so I can play with my snowblower.

    Posted February 11th at 4:34 PM

  75. Chris:

    What is the weather like in Utica? Any snow yet?

    Posted February 11th at 4:38 PM

  76. tom:

    they are still thinking all snow from mohawk valley and north.but they think qpf will be lighter.matt,are we still looking like 4 to 8 inches,if not more or less?

    Posted February 11th at 5:08 PM

  77. Jeff Moore (port Leyden):

    Becky, how much snow did you end up with with yesterdays snow? I can't seem to find any totals. Thanks

    Posted February 11th at 5:20 PM

  78. Barb (Lee Center):

    As soon as you get past Sleepy Hollow Road (going south) it lets up..Rome is not that bad...moderate snow. It just amazes me how that works. I live near Stokes Corners, and there is that dividing line between snow and no snow where the Colonial Inn is...never ceases to put me in awe. I wish I liked snow..I am from Buffalo way, and I think after all these years of living here and there I am all snowed out...no politics PLEASE..just a personal choice...

    Good luck Jim....hope my drive home at 10:00 is OK...drive safe!!!! (My husband loves his snowblower too...must be a guy thing...I hate running the thing myself..it's bigger than me)

    Posted February 11th at 5:47 PM

  79. Matt Lanza:

    Sorry folks...lots of stuff to accomplish this evening. I'm becoming a little more concerned about the forecast for tomorrow night...a healthy shot of snow followed by a healthy shot of sleet. We could be talking about a mess Wednesday morning.

    Posted February 11th at 5:59 PM

  80. Rhea:

    Ah man, I hate snow, but I hate sleet even more!!

    Posted February 11th at 6:08 PM

  81. Kate:

    Sorry if this was already asked...but do you think it is possible that Utica will be seeing some significant snowfall/sleet tues and wednesday?

    Posted February 11th at 6:16 PM

  82. Mike(Leonardsville):

    Binghamton and Albany are in disagreement of the sleet and snow potential here. Binghamton doesn't think the sleet will make it here yet Albany thinks that Herkimer county is going over to freezing rain and sleet 4 AM on Wednesday morning. Either way they are both showing 6-10 inches of snow by Wednesday morning. This looks like a mess and probably our biggest storm so far this year. There is also something showing up for the end of this week that could be significant.

    Posted February 11th at 6:52 PM

  83. Matt Lanza:

    Mike: Actually, BGM does think sleet will interfere and that's partially why they have not issued warnings. As for the late week, I don't see anything worse than light snow right now. The Sunday-Monday storm is more interesting.

    Posted February 11th at 7:14 PM

  84. Mike(Leonardsville):

    Actually I just read Binghamton new report that was issued a half hour ago and they said sleet as far north as the southern tier and finger lakes. I think the southern tier would be Oneonta, Norwich, and Binghamton, is that correct? They said nothing about sleet making it to the Mohawk Valley, and the report said it would be all snow for the northern finger lakes, mohawk valley, and the tug hill. I wouldn't be shocked it becomes ice though since it has been an icy winter.

    Posted February 11th at 7:22 PM

  85. Brian:

    Matt, are the latest models showing all snow in Old Forge?

    Posted February 11th at 7:24 PM

  86. Mel (Westernville):

    Barb I have to call you on your totals - I was over in Lee Center plowing from 3:00 this afternoon and nobody picked up more than an inch or two - I plow a lot of driveways right at stokes corners - then I did go to rome to hit a couple off of potter road - I wish you were accurate - I could charge more $$. It was snowing pretty good but not accumulating that fast/

    Posted February 11th at 7:45 PM

  87. Matt Lanza:

    New entry up!

    Posted February 11th at 7:56 PM

  88. mike m ( binghamton):

    mike, yea bgm seems to think all snow north of route 20. the 18z gfs is showing quite a bit more qpf, now if we can just get most of it to be snow wed be all set. lets hope for some good news on the 00z gfs tonight

    Posted February 11th at 7:57 PM

  89. Period:

    Man, I would absolutely love to be where you guys are now...

    Posted February 21st at 6:15 PM

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