Heat Wave, Hurricanes, Lake Effect-Oh My!

Posted August 29th, 2010 by Jill Reale. 56 comments

This weekend weather was fantastic with plenty of sunshine, low humidity and comfortable temperatures. Temperatures are going to start going back up into the upper 80s to near 90s degrees into Thursday. High pressure is located just to our south and will park itself there until late Thursday. Winds will turn southwesterly by Tuesday into Wednesday, helping 850s climb to 18-20 °C. If it was July, we would have no problem getting into the low 90s but since it is the end of August into September, the sun angle is not as strong and the daylight hours are decreasing. I still think we have a good chance of getting close to 90 degrees for Tuesday, Wednesday and maybe even Thursday, depending on the timing of a cold front.

While the weather here has been ridiculously quiet, the tropics are now becoming very active. Danielle is now barely a Cat 1 Hurricane with max sustained winds of 70mph. While Danielle is pushing farther east, all eyes are now on Earl and a tropical wave behind that that looks to become "Fiona" soon. The current track for Earl is to edge the East Coast but as it comes close to New England, the front that is going to bring us showers and thunderstorms will be pushing Earl out to sea. But that front is continuing to stall across the Great Lakes and is now projected to move through the region on Friday instead of Thursday. If this front continues to stall, then Earl could edge closer to the New England Coast. "Fiona" looks to take more of the southerly track, crossing Cuba then potentially moving into the Gulf of Mexico and gain strength. Again, these are all projections and nothing is close to being set in stone. Regardless, the tropics will be very active over the next several weeks.

That cold front that I mentioned above is going to usher in some very fall-like weather just in time for the Labor Day Weekend. How cool? Temperatures are not going to get out of the upper 60s on Saturday with the potential for lake effect rain during the day. Sunday looks drier but still cool, with highs near 70 degrees. We will keep you updated as we get closer to the holiday weekend.

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  1. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I only hit 79 here for a high today. Seems odd as westmo/rome hit 83/85. Never really had that much of a depature from them for a high on a full sunny day. Weird.

    Posted August 29th at 9:30 PM

  2. Rob (Whitesboro):

    The Euro has two landfalls now. Globals are much faster and beating the front. The east coast is in trouble this week…landfall or not.

    Posted August 30th at 3:27 AM

  3. Becky (West Leyden):

    The Low here was 49 this morning.

    The 8:00AM run this morning had Earl’s winds at 110 mph. Have to wait and see if his winds are stronger on the 11:00AM run. A few of the ensemble models show Earl having a first landfall on the Outer Banks of the Carolina’s. However, the vast majority have him just off the coast. This is just speculation on my part but I think Earl will stay off the coast and not make any East Coast landfall. However, a jog to the east of a 100-150 miles would bring Earl into the Carolina’s and possibility into eastern Long Island. we have to remember that the models show the projected path of the eye wall not the storm itself, so the east coast will see the effects of Earl regardless of him staying off shore. Another thing to keep in mind is the further north Hurricane’s go, their forward speed increases and larger in size they become. Earl will have to be watched very closely, if anyone things upper NYS can’t be impacted by Hurricanes just remember the 1938 Long Island Express which caused lots of damage in Eastern NYS.

    Posted August 30th at 10:45 AM

  4. Becky (West Leyden):

    That should say a jog to the west not east.

    Posted August 30th at 10:47 AM

  5. Becky (West Leyden):

    Earl is now a Cat3 with winds of 120 MPH.

    Posted August 30th at 10:59 AM

  6. Mikerkimer:

    When should we expect rain fro Friday?
    was planning a nice long weekend….....

    Posted August 30th at 11:19 AM

  7. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    It’s hard to envision Earl making landfall in New England with the current forecast. A strong cold front will kick the storm out to sea. Unless the front slows down (which many of them have done in the past) most areas outside of the coast have little to worry about. Things can change though, so we’ll keep on top of it.

    Posted August 30th at 11:24 AM

  8. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The cold front on Friday looks dry on the models, but I don’t buy it. I’d imagine that tropical moisture will get wrapped into the picture, but probably after the front pushes to our east. We’ll run the risk for showers and thunderstorms, but as long as that front moves along as it’s showing on the models it should not be a washout.

    Posted August 30th at 11:25 AM

  9. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Already 80/66 here. A bit more humid than yesterday.

    Posted August 30th at 12:38 PM

  10. Becky (West Leyden):

    Earl’s winds are now up to 125 MPH. His Position is 19.1N 64.4W. Earl is moving
    toward the west-northwest near 15 mph. He is forecasted to reach Cat 4 tonight or early tomorrow morning.

    Posted August 30th at 3:34 PM

  11. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Awesome link of Earl: http://i35.tinypic.com/2ufg2er.gif

    Posted August 30th at 3:56 PM

  12. Jill Reale (Utica):

    We now have Tropical Storm Fiona with winds up to 40mph

    Posted August 30th at 5:03 PM

  13. Becky (West Leyden):

    Thanks for the link Jill, the picture is very cool

    Earl is now a Cat 4 storm with winds of 135 MPH

    Posted August 30th at 5:33 PM

  14. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Hurricane Earl is still a Cat 4 as of 11PM and its track is still edging westward. As of right now OBX may feel some of the hurricane effects on Thursday night. As for TS Fiona, it looks to make a WNW track as well but looks significantly weaker than Earl.

    Posted August 30th at 11:03 PM

  15. Becky (West Leyden):

    Could be an interesting Thursday night in Nags Head.

    Posted August 30th at 11:23 PM

  16. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Becky: NWS forecast for them:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=mhx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&site=MHX&map.x=310&map.y=43

    Posted August 30th at 11:30 PM

  17. Becky (West Leyden):

    Thanks Jill

    Posted August 30th at 11:32 PM

  18. Becky (West Leyden):

    Here is a webcam link for Nags Head. Might be interesting to watch

    http://205.244.118.49/view/view.shtml

    Posted August 30th at 11:56 PM

  19. Becky (West Leyden):

    I thought I would post the latest on Earl before I go to bed. Earl’s winds are still 135 MPH. However His pressure is down to 933mb, so he is still gaining strength. I suspect Earl’s wind field will be stronger by the next advisory. Earl is forecasted to be a strong Cat 4 or even a weak Cat 5 sometime tomorrow. He is still moving to the WNW at around 14 MPH. The NHC has moved the track a little further west. Earl making a East Cost landfall will depend on timing. There are several factors steering the Hurricane, there is a High pressure system behind him and a dome of High pressure over the Eastern US, then we have the Cold front moving in from the West. The CF is the key, it will move the High out of the way and allow Earl an opportunity to move more to the North. If the approaching trough gets here in time it will push Earl out to sea, if it slows down we could see Earl making Landfall on the OBX Thursday Night and maybe Eastern Long Island Friday Night. Time will tell

    Posted August 31st at 2:40 AM

  20. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Barring a major shift in the track of Earl, there will be little if any impact of it here in Upstate New York. The main driver of our weather on the day it brushes the coast will be a cold front coming in from the west. Tropical storm force winds are a good bet along New England, potentially as far west as Western New England.

    Posted August 31st at 7:34 AM

  21. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    What is of interest here in Central New York is the potential for a heat wave over the next three days. I think we may come up just shy here of 90 this afternoon, but if we do get there then there’s a good shot we could get a heat wave. Remember, a heat wave is three consecutive days where the temperature is at or above 90 degrees.

    Posted August 31st at 10:11 AM

  22. Becky (West Leyden):

    Temp here is 79 dewpoint is 71

    No big change in Earl, he is still a Cat 4 with winds of 135.

    The thing that will really get noticed will be the temporary influx of cooler air over the weekend. It will be our first real taste of Autumn.

    Posted August 31st at 11:35 AM

  23. Becky (West Leyden):

    Looking at the satellite Earls eye wall is looking a little ragged. This does not necessary mean he is losing steam. It could be a eye wall replacement cycle. These cycles are Something powerful hurricanes sometimes go through; when the cycle finishes and the new eye wall forms the hurricane is often more powerful than before.

    Posted August 31st at 12:25 PM

  24. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    It would be interesting to see how much stronger Earl could pulse before starting to weaken as it heads north. NHC discussion isn’t thinking Cat 5….we’ll know by this evening for sure.

    Posted August 31st at 12:34 PM

  25. deb in hartwick:

    Will the weekend be wet? If so, can you give us an idea of which day(s) will be wet ..? Thank you.

    Posted August 31st at 12:34 PM

  26. Becky (West Leyden):

    Bill, I’m thinking around 150 mph.

    Posted August 31st at 12:55 PM

  27. Becky (West Leyden):

    deb, Saturday we will have gusty winds behind Earl, the winds will introduce much cooler air out of Canada into the area, both Saturday and Sunday will feature off and on showers. the rain shouldn’t get real heavy and neither day will be a washout.

    Posted August 31st at 1:05 PM

  28. Rob (Whitesboro):

    12Z Euro has a direct hit on the outerbanks and the Cape. Getting oppressive outside here. I got 87/70 right now.

    Posted August 31st at 2:23 PM

  29. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I bet the 5PM NHC track shifts further west again. The Euro model has had this track before as well. Hurricane Watch with probably be issued for NC coast in the next few hours.

    Posted August 31st at 2:33 PM

  30. Becky (West Leyden):

    It’s 82/69 here

    The air NW of Earl is a little dry that will give him some problems.

    Rob, I agree, I think they will shift it another 20 or 30 miles to the west.

    Posted August 31st at 4:28 PM

  31. Becky (West Leyden):

    Here a links formore Outer Banks beach cams near Kill Devil Hills.
    .

    http://visitob.com/outer_banks/trip/outer_banks_webcams.htm

    Posted August 31st at 4:33 PM

  32. Chris (hp weather observer):

    Wow talking about our first taste of autumm possible and lake-effect rain showers this weekend. never would have thought that after this heat wave. any chance that we could see severe weather on friday ?? or to early to say yet? that hurricane is looking strong out there.. watches posted for the outer banks of NC

    Posted August 31st at 9:52 PM

  33. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    It’s not going to be a heat wave this time around. Yesterday’s high was 86.

    Posted September 1st at 4:18 AM

  34. Becky (West Leyden):

    Earl is looking very impressive on satellite this morning. So far, Earl is doing a good job of fighting the dry air and keeping it out of his core.

    Here are a few links on Earl.

    Water Vapor image

    http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/g8/latest_g8wv.gif

    Infrared Water Vapor

    http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=atlantic&prod=irn&sat=g8

    This is a link of the animated Water Vapor , you can see the race between Earl and the approaching Trough is underway

    http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/animation/goeseastwv.html

    Satellite Visible

    http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=atlantic/extended_nh&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=conus&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=conus.cgi&CURRENT=20100901.1345.goes13.ir.x.extended_nh.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

    Posted September 1st at 10:42 AM

  35. Becky (West Leyden):

    Earl is a strong Cat 3 with winds around 125 mph. The shear and dry air are giving him a little trouble. We will have to see if he can gain a little strength this afternoon. I did notice that the 12Z had him a little closer to Cape Cod.

    Posted September 1st at 11:33 AM

  36. Becky (West Leyden):

    The tropics are busy, behind Earl is Tropical Storm Fiona with winds of 60 MPH ,Tropical depression Nine with winds of 35 MPH, and invest 98.

    Posted September 1st at 11:39 AM

  37. Sara:

    Weather team—Will we have severe weather friday?

    Posted September 1st at 12:17 PM

  38. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Sara,

    The probablilty of severe weather is very low on Friday. The front doesn’t have strong upper level support, so there’s no reason to worry on Friday. I think we’ll see plain old thunderstorms by the afternoon.

    Posted September 1st at 12:55 PM

  39. Becky (West Leyden):

    We now have TS Gaston, his winds are 40 mph Gaston’s position is 12.9N 37.0W moving west at 15 mph

    Posted September 1st at 5:32 PM

  40. Becky (West Leyden):

    As of 5:00 pm advisory Earl winds are back up to 135 mph his position is 26.3N 73.3W moving to the northwest at 17mph. Earl could fluctuate in intensity during the next 12 to 24 hours before he starts to slowly weaken as he moves into cooler water and a little more in the way of shear.

    Posted September 1st at 5:42 PM

  41. Rob (Whitesboro):

    That eye is getting huge. Looks like it’s just started turning a little more north. We’ll see if it crosses the 75W line the next 12 hours or so. Looks to be on track for a near miss so far.

    Posted September 1st at 7:14 PM

  42. Rob (Whitesboro):

    This is the best I’ve seen the storm look so far. Just over the past hour this thing has really started cranking. We’re talking pretty close to a Cat 5 right now.

    Posted September 1st at 8:21 PM

  43. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Pressure just dropped 9mb since 8PM. Down to 932mb.

    Posted September 1st at 8:43 PM

  44. Becky (West Leyden):

    Yeah, he is a monster now

    Posted September 1st at 10:04 PM

  45. Becky (West Leyden):

    Yeah, he is a monster now

    Posted September 1st at 10:04 PM

  46. Becky (West Leyden):

    Rob, as of now the pressure is down to 929

    Posted September 1st at 10:05 PM

  47. Rob (Whitesboro):

    This storm reminds me of Hugo. I can’t get over how perfect the eye is. It’s a perfect 360 degrees. It’s about 40 miles wide as well.

    Posted September 1st at 10:30 PM

  48. Michael- (Dolgeville)/Port St. John:

    Hey Guys! I’m about 4 miles away from the coast near Cape Canaveral on vacation. I’ll keep you updated on the waves here.

    Posted September 1st at 10:37 PM

  49. Becky (West Leyden):

    Thanks Michael

    Posted September 1st at 10:39 PM

  50. Becky (West Leyden):

    Earl’s winds are up to 140 MPH with a pressure of 932 mb. Earl is moving NNW at 18 MPH

    Posted September 1st at 11:01 PM

  51. Becky (West Leyden):

    Rob, Looking out to 24 hours the 00z GFS has Earl a little more to the West..

    Posted September 1st at 11:55 PM

  52. Becky (West Leyden):

    Waiting on the EURO to see if it goes along with the GFS

    Posted September 2nd at 1:35 AM

  53. Becky (West Leyden):

    Bill, unless I’m seeing things, it looks like the trough has slowed down a tad. I was wonder if you see that too?

    Posted September 2nd at 1:37 AM

  54. Becky (West Leyden):

    USAF Recon had a Extrapolated
    Surface Pressure reading of 926.4 mb and winds 125 knots/143.8 mph.

    Posted September 2nd at 1:43 AM

  55. Becky (West Leyden):

    here is the recon web link

    http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/

    Posted September 2nd at 1:44 AM

  56. Becky (West Leyden):

    125kts SE quadrant and 113kts on the NW quadrant the dropsonde reading should come out soon.

    Posted September 2nd at 2:04 AM

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