Weather Blog | Hard to Believe Summer is 2 Weeks Away

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It is hard to believe that the summer solstice is only 2 weeks away. That is probably because we havent had a long stretch of summer or seasonable weather across the region in quite some time. There may be a light an the end of the tunnel by next weekend. As for the beginning of the week, the weather looks to be on the unsettled side once again, which is okay, since we are back to being 3 inches below normal for rainfall. I was playing soccer in between my shifts today and noticed how hard and dry the ground is. We desperately need the rain and we will get it by Monday night.

Monday looks to start off great as a weak area of high pressure pushes a frontal boundary that is just to our south, even further south tomorrow, taking the clouds that were around today, with it. As we go into the afternoon, sun will fade behind clouds as the frontal boundary that was just to our south, connects with a large area of high pressure in the midwest. This boundary will form into a warm front Monday as it advances back north and east. Rain doesn't look to arrive into the Mohawk Valley until Monday night, but areas to the south may see some shower activity during the late afternoon/evening. Once this warm front moves through, showers, perhaps heavy at times, develop throughout Monday night and into Tuesday morning. As of right now, the heaviest rain looks to be just north of Utica. The WRF seems to be overdoing qpf once again, with the model spitting out over an inch of rainfall by Tuesday morning. The big question is, once this warm front moves to the north, how fast can the clouds break while we are in the warm sector. The air in the warm sector looks to be some what juicy and if we get enough sun with daytime heating, strong thunderstorms could develop Tuesday afternoon and evening. CAPES look quite impressive, up to 2000, so if we can ignite some engery, we may be rocking and rolling Tuesday. Wind shear doesn't look impressive at this time.

After the pass of the cold front, Wednesday looks cool but dry before another shot of rain returns on Thursday. As of right now, high pressure builds back in by the weekend with seasonable temperatures. Here is to wishful thinking:)

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Bill Kardas:

No sign of summer yet…though it is still early June. Long term patterns suggest another trough will develop and drop in from Canada heading into the weekend. That means a wet week, and not a warm weekend. We’re getting this out of the way early, so when July and August comes, we have no where to go but up.

Posted June 8th at 12:34 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

SPC just (barely) put us in their slight risk area for tomorrow. So just about anyone along and south of the thruway stands a chance for some severe weather tomorrow. It’s been very boring around here the last few weeks. We need some excitement soon. A good shot of rain would help as well.

Posted June 8th at 1:43 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Any ideas for tomorrow? Michigan did fairly well today despite the lack of sunshine. There was a impressive couplet several hours ago but nothing confirmed. Few t-showers popping now to our west.

Posted June 8th at 10:05 PM
Bill Kardas:

My first thoughts were that the clouds would significantly reduce our shot of severe weather today. It will be tough to get sunshine today, but if we do, then we could see some isolated severe storms. Models have been struggling lately in general, so will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Posted June 9th at 5:41 AM
Bill Kardas:

The same area of rain and storms this morning is now bringing thunderstorms to NYC. I wonder if we’ll see any lightning on the Today Show.

Posted June 9th at 8:13 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Yeah there seems to be quite a bit of clearing out ahead of the cold front in WNY. SPC just took us out of their risk area though. That’s never a good sign. It seems we should get Capes to at least 1000 with any sunshine. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

Posted June 9th at 8:36 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

There’s a decent cell trucking down the thruway now. I don’t hear any thunder with it though. Maybe it’ll set up a boundary for us later on.

Posted June 9th at 8:40 AM
Amanda:

Bill,
Are we expecting any severe weather for the W’boro area? Are tornados going to be a threat?

Posted June 9th at 10:10 AM
Bill Kardas:

The sun has broken out across Western New York. While it may seem as if we’ll clear out today, this place always seems to find a way to keep clouds around. I’d imagine we’ll see at least some sunshine, but it may be limited and probably not enough to change the current thinking.

Posted June 9th at 10:11 AM
Bill Kardas:

Amanda,

Doubtful. We’ll need to get a lot of sunshine this morning and afternoon…and I’m not sure we’ll get enough.

Posted June 9th at 10:12 AM
LeraJenkins:

The authoritative point of view, it is tempting

Posted June 22nd at 5:58 PM

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