From Widespread Back To Lake Effect

Posted January 21st, 2013 by Adam Musyt. 84 comments

After a snowy start to the work week, Mother Nature didn’t offer much of a reprieve.  A storm system quickly intensified over Pennsylvania and New Jersey and interacted with an old frontal boundary in our area to bring another round of accumulating snow.

 

Here’s a look at new snowfall totals from Monday Evening:

 

Location

Amount(in.)

South Utica

3.0

WKTV Deerfield

3.0

Marcy

3.0

Whitesboro

2.8

Richfield Springs

2.6

Holland Patent

2.5

New Hartford

2.5

North Utica

2.5

Fairfield

2.0

West Winfield

1.5

 

That area of low pressure has now moved out to sea, taking the widespread snow along with it.  In its wake, winds are now aligning over Lake Ontario on a west to east orientation.  The atmosphere is very unstable with sub minus 20-degree air at the 850 mbar pressure level moving over a lake surface with temperatures just above freezing.  Model forecast soundings indicate an inversion at the 700 mbar pressure level, or about 3 km in altitude.  This coupled with impressive unidirectional shear from ground level to 3 km aloft means that a strong single band is likely to develop and persist through the morning.  With the initial west to east wind orientation the North Country and Tug Hill Plateau will be favored for the most focused lake effect snow through the morning, but that’s not the entire story.

 

During the day Tuesday an area of high pressure building from NW to Central Ontario in Canada will likely cause our winds to back just a bit to the north and west.  This subtle wind shift will likely cause the snow band to push southward through Oneida County and into the Mohawk Valley for the afternoon and evening.  At this time it appears that the band will hover across the North Country the longest, giving that area the highest accumulations.  Still, as the Canadian High approaches and the band drops southward during the day, some areas in and near the Mohawk Valley will likely be impacted with some heavy squalls for a time as well.  We’ll continue to monitor this situation as it develops and the latest forecasts can be found on the weather page of wktv.com.

 

Once the snow winds down, the big story will be the bitterly cold temperatures with several days of highs in the single digits and teens and overnight lows below zero.  Bundle up and exercise caution on the wintry roads!

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  1. Ralph L (New Hartford ( 900 ft )):

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    953 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013

    NYZ037-230300-
    /O.EXB.KBGM.LE.W.0002.130122T0600Z-130123T1200Z/
    SOUTHERN ONEIDA-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…UTICA...ROME
    953 PM EST MON JAN 21 2013

    ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM
    EST WEDNESDAY...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE
    EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO
    7 AM EST WEDNESDAY.

    • LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY.
    • HAZARDS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.
    • ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.

    • TIMING...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
    AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF DAY ON TUESDAY.

    • TEMPERATURES...SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
    • WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

    • IMPACTS...DRIVING CONDITIONS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT WITH SNOW
    COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE
    EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
    IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES
    IN BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL
    INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY
    GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
    DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
    TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
    VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

    PLEASE REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
    CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT
    BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

    Posted January 21st at 10:49 PM

  2. Rob (Whitesboro):

    This shortwave looks intense on radar. Might see some 2”/hr rates if it holds together.

    Posted January 21st at 10:55 PM

  3. Justin (North Utica):

    is a coating-3 inches still the forecase for utica or has the forecast changed since then?

    Posted January 21st at 11:14 PM

  4. Adam Musyt:

    Justin – Our map runs through 5 PM Tuesday. Latest data does show the band lingering for a time through the evening.

    I want to focus first on tonight and the morning commute, then on what’s likely to transpire during the day tomorrow to avoid confusion.

    We’ll have tomorrow night’s snowfall forecast during the morning show.

    Posted January 21st at 11:32 PM

  5. Justin (North Utica):

    Adam – thank you. i mis-read that the warning was for tomorrow into wednesday.

    Posted January 21st at 11:38 PM

  6. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I just saw a report of 3” in 45mins in Syracuse. Just started snowing here.

    Posted January 22nd at 12:10 AM

  7. Allen (Sauquoit):

    Rob,
    I’m not sure if you saw this but I was just on my way home from Rome to Sauquoit. On Rt. 8 South right near the Sauquoit exit, the sky just lit up, and I saw a bolt of lightning shoot across the sky to the south. The absolute most surreal thing that I’ve ever seen…

    Posted January 22nd at 12:13 AM

  8. Rob (Whitesboro):

    It’s defenitely possible if you saw it to your west. This band is cranking. I’m getting moderate snow right now and it’s not even showing up on radar.

    Posted January 22nd at 12:19 AM

  9. Allen (Sauquoit):

    It would be south and west I was looking. It was crazy, and like I said, completely surreal. Gave me chills. To see snow falling, 9 degrees on the car thermometer and lightning?!

    Posted January 22nd at 12:25 AM

  10. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Wind Chill Advisory for Chenango & Otsego Counties until 10:00 AM

    Posted January 22nd at 3:55 AM

  11. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Wind Chill Warning for Lewis County until 09:00 AM

    Posted January 22nd at 4:05 AM

  12. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    9 degrees here with 2 new inches overnight.

    Posted January 22nd at 4:56 AM

  13. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    9 degrees here also, overcast, windy, 3.1” snow since this time yesterday.

    Posted January 22nd at 5:05 AM

  14. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    One of the toughest calls I’ve had to make in a long time here. The band looks like it will drop just north of Utica this afternoon, and linger in Central Oneida County for most of the day. The band eventually drops southward tonight into Madison County. The wobble will be caused by a stalled frontal boundary to the north…where exactly this boundary sets up is key.

    Snow maps are being updated…will post the links shortly.

    Posted January 22nd at 5:21 AM

  15. Denys (East Winfield):

    6 degrees, overcast and windy. I have 1.5” of snow since this time yesterday. I had one of the worst drives home last night. White out conditions on Rte. 8. Very scary until we got to Babcock Hill on Stone Rd. in Bridgewater. Then it was light snow and smooth sailing all the way down to Rte 20 and heading east. Looks like I will have the same kind of ride home tonight!

    Posted January 22nd at 5:32 AM

  16. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Subtle shift in the front on the 06z runs…pointing the bands a bit farther south. We are monitoring the band closely and will make adjustments to the forecast if necessary.

    Here is the snowfall map: http://wktv.bimedia.net/snowfall.jpg

    Posted January 22nd at 5:48 AM

  17. Winter (Forestport):

    ... 10° .... Less than one inch of “...s“NO“w…” fell last nite ….

    Posted January 22nd at 6:03 AM

  18. Chris (HP Weather) (Holland Patent):

    up early to check if schools have made decisions to open or not. Snow has started here in Holland Patent in the last 10 minutes. Band looks to be just north of me at this point. very cold here as well only 8 degrees out

    Posted January 22nd at 6:04 AM

  19. Mel (Westernville):

    Have been n the edge of the band for a little while now. 3” since yesterday morning. Just cleared the board off for today. With Regents this week it looks like even schools over in Oswego County where they have been getting hammered (Fulton, APW, Mexico) are reluctant to close.

    Posted January 22nd at 6:23 AM

  20. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    0z SUNY MM5 is interesting with today LES.
    http://www.stanford.edu/~tenhoeve/weather/00zMM53hrPrecip.htm

    Posted January 22nd at 6:29 AM

  21. sue (fairfield):

    10* overnight…...now down to 8…..quite windy

    Posted January 22nd at 7:02 AM

  22. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The frontal boundary to the north could help curb totals across the area. North of the front, winds are NNW. South of the front, winds are W. At the present moment, the abrupt change in wind direction is preventing a Georgian Bay connection, limiting the inland extent of the heavy snow band.

    This could change later today as the front drops a bit farther south, so we’ll have to watch things closely.

    Posted January 22nd at 7:32 AM

  23. Mel (Westernville):

    At the 8:00 observation Rome reported just overcast but it has been snowing lightly here all morning. Lightened up and visibility increased for a little bit but back down to about a mile. Looking at the western end of Lake Ontario the band may be about to jog south.

    Posted January 22nd at 8:15 AM

  24. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
    822 AM EST TUE JAN 22 2013

    ...VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE OFF LAKE ONTARIO
    THIS MORNING...

    A BAND OF VERY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
    OSWEGO...SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES
    THIS MORNING.

    SNOWFALL RATES OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES PER HOUR...WITH SOME
    ISOLATED SPOTS POSSIBLY SEEING RATES UP TO 5 INCHES PER
    HOUR...WILL IMPACT THE SANDY
    CREEK...REDFIELD...OSCEOLA...ALTMAR...PARISH...PULASKI AND
    WILLIAMSTOWN AREAS THROUGH 10 AM.

    THE LAKE BAND WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH STATIONARY THROUGH 10 AM
    THIS MORNING...ALLOWING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO PILE UP OVER THE SAME
    AREAS.

    TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL BE EXTREMELY
    DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 81 AND
    ROUTE 11 BETWEEN MANNSVILLE AND PARISH. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED TO
    USE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING THROUGH THIS AREA...AS
    VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE
    IN HEAVY SNOW. DEEP SNOW COVER WILL LIKELY BE ON AREA ROADWAYS.
    GUSTY WINDS MAY PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS TIMES.

    Posted January 22nd at 8:30 AM

  25. sue:

    another 1.25” from last night for 2.25” from the storm

    Posted January 22nd at 8:39 AM

  26. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Lake Effect Snow Warning for Southern Oneida County until 07:00 AM

    Posted January 22nd at 8:50 AM

  27. MG (Point Rock):

    I picked up 1.6” yesterday afternoon, and another 3.0” overnight. Had intermittent very heavy snow – I’m right at the eastern edge of the band.

    Posted January 22nd at 8:51 AM

  28. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Seems like I just can’t get into any of the heavier snow this week. On Sunday from the first Lake effect I only received 1.5” of snow. With the upper ait disturbance yesterday, I only got .5” of snow. With the band early this morning I only have 2” so far. Just light snow here. the heavier lake effect is just West of me.

    Posted January 22nd at 9:14 AM

  29. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    That sure is a classic lake effect band. It’s traversing the entire length of the lake.

    Posted January 22nd at 9:21 AM

  30. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    12z NAM Hi-res has looks like it has the connection…hope it can happen. :)

    Posted January 22nd at 9:26 AM

  31. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Route 12 looks like a good cut-off for the lake band. 12Z run doesn’t look great for eastern Oneida County.

    Posted January 22nd at 9:26 AM

  32. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Yeah 12z brings it even further south than 0z did too….lol dont know if that will happen though that far south.

    Posted January 22nd at 9:33 AM

  33. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Defenitely moving south now. Oswego is about to get hit hard.
    http://www.oswego.edu/webcam/index.html

    Posted January 22nd at 9:47 AM

  34. Mel (Westernville):

    Wunderground radar showing the drop nicely. Now the million $ question is how far south does it go!

    Posted January 22nd at 10:25 AM

  35. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    My question is does it even reach the Utica/Rome area? It seems to show no inclination to so far.

    Posted January 22nd at 10:29 AM

  36. Rob (Whitesboro):

    18” already in Camden with up to 2 feet near Florence.

    Posted January 22nd at 10:32 AM

  37. Mel (Westernville):

    Camden reports must be further West out of the village – this webcam on Main St. doesn’t show much: http://www.camdenbudgetstorage.com/EyeOnCamden/

    Posted January 22nd at 10:36 AM

  38. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Wow I guess so. That report was from the DPW.

    Posted January 22nd at 10:42 AM

  39. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Not very excited about this anymore. Dry air is defenitely winning the battle even though the mid-levels are very moist. Might not even see a flake.

    Posted January 22nd at 10:50 AM

  40. MG (Point Rock):

    The band is definitely contracting toward the lake as it drops southward.

    Posted January 22nd at 10:55 AM

  41. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Oswego cam is totally white. Can’t even see ths school.

    Posted January 22nd at 10:56 AM

  42. Robert (Rome):

    11am and its bright and sunny in Rome

    Posted January 22nd at 11:00 AM

  43. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Jill and I are monitoring the situation this morning. The lack of a connection combined with dry air (dew point is -4°F at 10am) is significantly reducing the extent of the band. Heavy snow continues to fall in the western part of Oneida County, but we don’t believe the REALLY heavy stuff makes it to Rome.

    In addition, the band is rapidly dropping south, and will likely set up shop near or south of the valley. There will still be snow, blowing snow, and slick spots, but it’s not going to be as big of a deal as last night across the majority of the viewing area.

    Posted January 22nd at 11:01 AM

  44. Rob (Whitesboro):

    19” in Pulaski at 9AM

    Posted January 22nd at 11:25 AM

  45. Jill Reale (Utica):

    27” and counting in Altmar, NY

    Posted January 22nd at 11:30 AM

  46. Mel (Westernville):

    Light Snow started back up here about 11:30am. 3/4 of a mile visibility right now.

    Posted January 22nd at 12:08 PM

  47. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    DP has icreased from -3 to 0 here now. Temp is at 10 degrees.

    Posted January 22nd at 12:23 PM

  48. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Just started snowing here. Flakes are very small.

    Posted January 22nd at 12:23 PM

  49. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Cut back on the numbers for the afternoon based on observations and trends we talked about earlier. Light snow is going to be in the cards for many still, but totals don’t look as impressive locally. Different story near the lake shore: http://wktv.bimedia.net/snowfall.jpg

    Posted January 22nd at 12:25 PM

  50. Rob (Whitesboro):

    1 mile visability here. Flake size increasing. Figures I got to go to work now.

    Posted January 22nd at 1:07 PM

  51. Robert (Rome):

    Snowing pretty good here in Rome now

    Posted January 22nd at 1:49 PM

  52. Karen (Westmoreland):

    OK..dumb question of the day… I live in Westmoreland..where do we fall on the snow map?

    Posted January 22nd at 1:57 PM

  53. Edward (Chadwicks):

    @52 Karen, You are about where the dot of the “i” in Utica is.

    On another note, Downtown Utica has about 1/10 mile visibility as of right now. Genesee St is snow covered.

    Posted January 22nd at 2:28 PM

  54. Karen (Westmoreland):

    Thanks Ed…much appreciated :)

    Posted January 22nd at 2:40 PM

  55. Ralph L (New Hartford ( 900 ft )):

    In North Utica near River Road. Snow has let up at the moment. Looks like snowband is getting wider to the Northwest and moving slowly South.

    Posted January 22nd at 3:05 PM

  56. Chris (HP Weather) (Holland Patent):

    about an inch of new snow but snow is at a premium. snow here comes in bursts but not to bad, reports just west and south of me, rome and whitesboro have moderate snow coming down. So again we missed out for the most part of this event. Hopefully this flow will back off and hit us up here later on.

    Posted January 22nd at 3:09 PM

  57. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The radar is doing a lousy job showing the snow bursts. Please post conditions and snowfall this afternoon to help us fill in the gaps. Thank you in advance!

    Posted January 22nd at 3:14 PM

  58. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    Moderate snow falling here in the village, visibility is becoming lesser, roads are very slick and covered. Maybe half an inch so far.

    Posted January 22nd at 3:33 PM

  59. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    We have been having moderate snow here for a good hour now.

    Posted January 22nd at 3:35 PM

  60. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Been getting moderate snow here too.

    Posted January 22nd at 3:43 PM

  61. CJ (Little Falls):

    I am in Herkimer right now, and about an hour ago it was snowing moderately (and it was windy too). Now its just snowing lightly and wind has died down

    Posted January 22nd at 3:55 PM

  62. Lori (Bridgeport):

    Been snowing pretty good here for about 3 hrs now. Visibility not good….

    Posted January 22nd at 3:57 PM

  63. Adam Musyt:

    I’d estimate slightly less than an inch of new snow on the way into work between Rome and Utica…but that’s a bit deceptive. With small flakes and a temperature of only 13 degrees, the snow is easily sticking to the roadways. Rte 49 is in rough shape, about 40 mph between Rome and Utica.

    Exercise caution this evening on the roads!

    Posted January 22nd at 4:05 PM

  64. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    LES is intensifying over the lake…wow.
    Looks like almost a lake Huron connection too.

    Posted January 22nd at 4:06 PM

  65. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    My temp is at degrees with a DP of 4 now.

    Posted January 22nd at 4:16 PM

  66. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Oops.make that a DP of 1…4 is way off. My station was acting up.

    Posted January 22nd at 4:48 PM

  67. sue (fairfield):

    it’s probably frost bit like the rest of us Nick ; )

    high of 10* whoo hoooo…..that was before noon…..back down to 7…...been snowing moderatly here as well but only about a half inch has accumulated

    Posted January 22nd at 5:12 PM

  68. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Shocking difference between Oneida, Utica, and home. Drove all over today and saw some of the heaviest snow I have ever witnessed in Rome around 2pm. No snow fell today at my house, wife said sun was out all day.

    Posted January 22nd at 5:27 PM

  69. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Steady light snow here. Just drove home from Oneida on Rte. 5 and it was a little slick. The heaviest snow was falling in the Vernon-Westmoreland corridor (the usual spot).

    Posted January 22nd at 5:32 PM

  70. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Between 1-2 inches here, although conditions outside are terrible. Roads are very poor and the wind makes it really nasty. Still snowing lighty

    Posted January 22nd at 5:33 PM

  71. Robert (Rome):

    Just brushed off the car. About 4 inches since the snow started here in Rome this afternoon. Coming down at a pretty good clip right now.

    Posted January 22nd at 6:22 PM

  72. Robert (Rome):

    Just brushed off the car. About 4 inches since the snow started here in Rome this afternoon. Coming down at a pretty good clip right now.

    Posted January 22nd at 6:22 PM

  73. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Funny, when the lake effect band was up by my house earlier today, it barely made as Far East as my house and the snow was real light. Now that it has moved South, it is stretching all the way to Albany. Only 1/2” of new snow at my house since 11 AM, and it has been snowing almost none stop nice then.

    Posted January 22nd at 7:13 PM

  74. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Snow has let up here, just went out and measured 1.5” for the day so far. Band looks like it’s really starting to shift to the south. Wonder if it’ll break apart for awhile?

    Posted January 22nd at 7:19 PM

  75. Brian (Lairdsville):

    In and out of moderate snow (small flakes). The band seems to have shifted just north of my house over the last 10 minutes. 3.5 inches of new snow from this event. Current temp 6 deg.

    Posted January 22nd at 7:23 PM

  76. Brian (Lairdsville):

    In and out of moderate snow (small flakes). The band seems to have shifted just north of my house over the last 10 minutes. 3.5 inches of new snow from this event. Current temp 6 deg.

    Posted January 22nd at 7:23 PM

  77. Brian (Lairdsville):

    In and out of moderate snow (small flakes). The band seems to have shifted just north of my house over the last 10 minutes. 3.5 inches of new snow from this event. Current temp 6 deg.

    Posted January 22nd at 7:24 PM

  78. Brian (Lairdsville):

    In and out of moderate snow (small flakes). The band seems to have shifted just north of my house over the last 10 minutes. 3.5 inches of new snow from this event. Current temp 6 deg.

    Posted January 22nd at 7:24 PM

  79. Brian (Lairdsville):

    In and out of moderate snow (small flakes). The band seems to have shifted just north of my house over the last 10 minutes. 3.5 inches of new snow from this event. Current temp 6 deg.

    Posted January 22nd at 7:24 PM

  80. Mel (Westernville):

    Went down to Rome for dinner tonight and about the same as here – maybe 1.5” of new snow. All the cars coming off of the Griff looked the same.

    Posted January 22nd at 8:02 PM

  81. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Steady moderate to occassionally heavy snow up here on the hill since about 3pm. About 3” of new snow since this morning. Watching the western lakes, looks like they are intensifying and making more of a westerly wind type movement. It will be interesting to see what LES does overnight.

    Posted January 22nd at 8:33 PM

  82. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    We got hardly any Snow at all here again today, but we went to the Vernon Downs Casino for the buffet tonight and when we got to Vernon Center we were in a different world. Kind of slick roads.
    The temp. here right now is 6*

    Posted January 22nd at 9:26 PM

  83. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Main roads are all snow packed and pretty bad around here. Only 2” fell at my house though.

    Posted January 22nd at 10:24 PM

  84. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Radar isn’t doing a great job tonight. I’m getting a steady light snow here right now with nothing showing on the radar. The main band seems to be re-organizing a bit and starting to move back to the north.

    Posted January 22nd at 10:48 PM

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