From Summer back to Fall...

Posted September 8th, 2010 by Bill Kardas. 39 comments

Yesterday's high of 86 was not anywhere close to record breaking for early September, but it was a reminder that early fall weather can be warm and beautiful.  That kind of weather is behind us for now, as we don't expect temperatures in the 80s anytime soon.  Thunderstorms rolled through the region last night, with some briefly heavy rainfall.  Most areas picked up a general 0.25"-0.50".  Those thunderstorms were part of a cold front that will bring big changes to our weather here today and tomorrow.

Cold air behind the front drains in this afternoon.  Upper level (850mb) temperatures drop to +6 later today, cold enough to produce some lake effect rain.  Remember, lake effect rain develops when the difference between the 850mb temperatures and lake temperatures exceeds 13°C.  According to NWS Buffalo, the current temperature of the lake is about 21°C (70°F).  Putting this all together, our lake/air differential is 15°C, enough to generate lake effect. 

Winds will be quite gusty this afternoon.  Even though the center of today's storm will be well to our north, the pressure gradient, or change in pressure over distance, will strengthen over the northeast.  The pressure gradient is the force that creates wind.  We'll see plenty of wind today, with gusts over 25mph in the Mohawk Valley.

The wind direction will be important later today when lake effect bands begin to develop.  Per BUFKIT, the initial winds will be from the west this afternoon, keeping any formed bands across the Adirondacks and Tug Hill.  The going idea behind the forecast is that winds will shift from the west to the northwest tonight.  This will shift the band southward between 7-10pm this evening.  Lake effect rain showers be situated across the Mohawk Valley for the majority of tonight.  Winds shift to the north tomorrow morning, bringing the bands farther to the west and out of the valley.

Outside of the lake bands, it will be cloudy and cool for the majority of the next two days.  The upper level storm exits Friday night, bringing nicer weather to the area by Saturday.

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  1. marlin-----otter lake:

    Bill, when you said this morning, “ summer is over,”—-no-no-no-, not by a long shot,......we are here until the last of Oct…..looking forward to a beautiful fall to come, the reason being of enjoying the greenery & then the colors of the Adirondacks, before heading to SW Florida…......please see what you can do to prolong summer,,,,,,,,thanks

    Posted September 8th at 10:43 AM

  2. Mikerkimer:

    What time should we expect rain on Sunday?

    Posted September 8th at 11:40 AM

  3. Becky (West Leyden):

    getting light to sometimes heavy rain this morning.

    Posted September 8th at 11:55 AM

  4. Becky (West Leyden):

    Saturday will be nice and seasonable. However, there is a chance rain could move in Saturday during the overnight and go through Sunday. Binghamton thinks it will be dry through Sunday Morning…I not sure where their seeing that. However, I would count on rain showers sometime Sunday morniing through Sunday night.

    Posted September 8th at 12:05 PM

  5. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Marlin,

    Summer is over at least for now. As mentioned in the blog and tv, we don’t expect 80s for at least the next week. You are right though, it’s not unheard of for temperatures to climb into the 80s even into early October. Plenty of time to see warm weather before winter sets in.

    Posted September 8th at 12:17 PM

  6. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Mike,

    According to our forecast models, light rain rain showers arrive early Sunday and last for several hours. We don’t anticipate a washout at this point.

    Posted September 8th at 12:25 PM

  7. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I thought that cold front would of swept all the mosquitos away. Ever since the holiday weekend they have been in full force around here.

    Posted September 8th at 4:30 PM

  8. kelly Mohwak:

    Where is the rain? I just looked at the radar and no rain in sight. Will we get anymore later?

    Posted September 9th at 8:55 AM

  9. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Kelly,

    Showers will continue to move across the area today. We’re seeing on and off sprinkles here in Utica as expected. I’d imagine the wettest part of the area would be closer to the lake shore, as we are dealing with a combination of lake effect and synoptic showers.

    Posted September 9th at 10:12 AM

  10. Jmd (Fonda):

    Rob-I ditto your thoughts on the mosquitoes…it is worse now than throughout the whole summer!Can’t enjoy these nice cool nights outside without major protection…..

    Posted September 9th at 12:06 PM

  11. kelly:

    thanks Bill

    Posted September 9th at 12:50 PM

  12. kelly:

    thanks Bill

    Posted September 9th at 12:50 PM

  13. kelly:

    thanks Bill

    Posted September 9th at 12:50 PM

  14. Blackjack:

    Mosquitoe populations tend to build until the first frost, then they are gone.

    Posted September 9th at 1:12 PM

  15. Becky (West Leyden):

    It’s a damp and dreary 53.

    I know what you mean about the mosquitoes, I went outside a few nights ago and had to comeback in right away to but on some spray.

    Posted September 9th at 4:13 PM

  16. Becky (West Leyden):

    That’s put on.

    Posted September 9th at 4:14 PM

  17. kelly:

    Srry about the multiple posts

    Posted September 9th at 8:06 PM

  18. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Drier air has made a huge push over the area this afternoon. We’ll continue to see more sunshine and less clouds as we continue into the afternoon.

    Posted September 10th at 12:08 PM

  19. Anthony (Oriskany):

    Bill – What happened? It looked like it was clearing then the clouds built back in later in the afternoon.

    Posted September 10th at 8:35 PM

  20. Anthony (Oriskany):

    There has been discussion here about warmer than average Lake Ontario temps and the LES potential. This link show the profile:
    http://www.9wsyr.com/Photo.aspx?content_id=654fbaef-0c80-4c84-a468-f6e7ff2bd811&i=1

    The temps don’t seem much above average (1992-2009). It will be interesting to see how the fall turns out in terms of temps.

    Posted September 10th at 8:43 PM

  21. Becky (West Leyden):

    Anthony nice link, Your link shows that the water temps were way above normal during the Summer. You’re right the current water temps are just a few degrees above normal. However, the temp’s that are showing are only surface temperatures. The bigger picture is under the surface, because of the very warm Summer the depth of the warm temperatures is deeper than normal. The water temps have pretty much stabilized over the last three weeks because the water has dramatically slowed its upwelling and mixing. To me this is a big deal because the mixing from cooler water at the bottom normally would alter these temperatures; Therefore it will take a lot longer for the lakes to cool down. Given that NOAA is forecasting warmer than average temps over the next few months. (this week’s cooler temps not withstanding) This forecast is supported by the ECMWF extended long-range model. I think that The NOAA fall forecast is based at least in part on this being a La Nina year. Going back it’s hard to find supporting evidence on what happens in La Nina years. Because of some conflicting data, That said, the way La Nina is suppose to work is when we’re in an La Nina the Polar Jet dips south of the Great Lakes which allows more cold polar air to infiltrate the region. During La Nina the overall circulation looks more like normal, it’s just normal on steroids, So the normal conditions we would normally have become more intense. One other thing, NOAA had the La Nina Winter of 1999-2000, December through February as the warmest on record (since 1900) for the United States. I don’t know if you remember, but back in Nov 2000 Erie dumped a ton of snow on Buffalo. Looking back, this year has been very similar, so the 2010-2011 season could pan out the same. The things I’ve outlined and a few I didn’t; I did not want to put everyone to sleep ; ) show to me at least, that the Tug and perhaps parts of the Mohawk Valley could see quite a bit of LES this winter season. Time will tell.

    Posted September 10th at 11:36 PM

  22. Jill Reale (Utica):

    KRME has fallen back to 43 degrees for an overnight low. We have reports of lows in the upper 30s from last night/early this morning!

    Posted September 11th at 7:45 AM

  23. Anthony (Oriskany):

    Becky – great writeup! thanks for the info.

    Posted September 11th at 7:57 AM

  24. Rob (Whitesboro):

    The low here was 42 degrees this morning.

    Posted September 11th at 8:49 AM

  25. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Sounds like we have a severe potential on Monday with a significant cold pool aloft along with some decent shear. It’ll be interesting to see how cold we end up behind this system. We could be talking about our first frost in the higher elevations. Saranac Lake was close to frost this morning with a low of 35.

    Posted September 11th at 10:05 AM

  26. Becky (West Leyden):

    Rob, I’ve been watching that as well. you’re right Monday is looking promising for the possibility of some convection developing. It will be interesting to see how focused the Theta-e ridge becomes.

    Posted September 11th at 5:35 PM

  27. Rob (Whitesboro):

    We’ll see. Definitely some 40-50mph gusts and some hail are possible. Lapse rates on the GFS are 8.5…something we needed wayyyy to long ago. I’ll take anything this time of year. I hate the fall!

    Posted September 12th at 12:28 AM

  28. Jill Reale (Utica):

    The timing does look good for the potential for strong storms on Monday afternoon. The question is how much sunshine we see for Monday morning but as of right now, it does look like we clear out for a short while. As Rob and Becky said, our biggest threat will be large hail and gusty winds.

    Posted September 12th at 9:55 AM

  29. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like we’ll have to keep an eye on Igor later this week. Models are cranking this up to a Cat 4. The Euro has it coming towards the coast in the long range.

    Posted September 12th at 10:34 AM

  30. Becky (West Leyden):

    The temp is 54 with light showers. So far, my highest wind gust has been 19 mph. I’ve picked up 0.11 of an inch in the rain dept

    Posted September 12th at 12:07 PM

  31. Becky (West Leyden):

    Current temp is 52, my rain total is at 0.23 inches and my highest wind gust was 24 MPH.

    Looks like more LER after the FROPA tomorrow.

    Posted September 12th at 4:07 PM

  32. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Wow….Igor just totally exploded since this morning. It jumped from a Cat 1 to a 4 in like not even 12 hours!

    Posted September 12th at 4:15 PM

  33. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Rob,
    Igor is a beast now with a well defined eye. As for its track, euro is pretty much on its own with a more westerly track. Most models are hinting at a similar track to Danielle.

    Posted September 12th at 5:51 PM

  34. Becky (West Leyden):

    Yeah, Igor looks great on satellite, inflow and outflow look classic. thankfully it should have no impact on the US. The one I’m keeping an eye on is invest 92.; it’s forecast to become a strong TS in a few days.

    Posted September 12th at 6:02 PM

  35. Becky (West Leyden):

    looks like there’s a good chance for frost in the North Country Wednesday night.

    Posted September 13th at 1:17 AM

  36. Becky (West Leyden):

    Igor is now a extremely strong CAT 4 with winds of 150 MPH, the pressure is down to 935 mb. the hurricane’s location is17.6n 47.8w moving to the W at 12 mph. It looks like he will be the first CAT 5 of the season sometime today.

    Posted September 13th at 1:24 AM

  37. Jill Reale (Utica):

    SPC has us under slight risk for this afternoon. If we see as much sun as I think we will, looks like we may see some strong thunderstorms after the noon hour.

    Posted September 13th at 3:51 AM

  38. sar:

    Jill are tornados a concer for today

    Posted September 13th at 8:03 AM

  39. Jill Reale (Utica):

    New entry up.

    Sara,
    No, just hail and gusty winds.

    Posted September 13th at 8:32 AM

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