From Slush To Lake Effect

Posted February 19th, 2013 by Adam Musyt. 58 comments

Old Man Winter fought the good fight again today across much of Central New York.  Low level cold air stubbornly clung into place across our area, thanks to a persistent (and under modeled) east wind.  As an occluded front approached (this is a situation where a cold front approaches a warm front, moves more quickly and eventually overtakes the warm front), the low level cold air was joined by a replenished supply of cold air aloft and heavy snow was the result as the boundary crossed the Empire State.

 

Here’s a look at snowfall reports into the Weather Center by 10 PM:

 

Location

amount (in.)

Holland Patent

6.0

Northwestern

5.3

Westernville

5.0

Glenmore

4.5

Marcy

4.0

Whitesboro

3.9

Dolgeville

3.0

Boonville

3.0

WKTV Deerfield

2.75

Herkimer

2.0

Cassville

1.0

South Utica

Dusting

Bridgeport

Dusting

Oneida

Dusting

 

The frontal boundary has pushed to the east and now cooler air aloft is working in from the west.  As the colder air crosses the warmer waters of Lake Ontario some lake effect snow still looks likely to develop into the early morning hours of Wednesday, mostly on a west to east orientation.  Several inches of snow accumulation are likely with Lake Effect Snow Warnings in place for Lewis and Oswego Counties and a Lake Effect Snow Advisory for Northern Oneida County through Wednesday.

 

Late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening a wind shift is slated to arrive and this should bring the band southward toward the NYS Thruway corridor.  This is our best chance of a burst of snow and *perhaps* a quick couple or few inches of accumulation for Utica/Rome.  The band should be steady state through the morning across the North Country, but by the time it gets close to the Valley it will likely be on the move.  This would limit accumulations to amounts less than what is expected farther north.  Still, some slippery travel is possible for a time in and near the Valley Wednesday evening and Wednesday Night.

 

By Thursday the low level environment begins to dry out and the winds aloft start to change direction.  This should cause whatever is left of the lake effect to gradually dissipate.  Dry and seasonably cold weather is expected for Friday.  A weakening storm system approaching from the Great Plains could kick off some light snow for Friday Night and Saturday.

 

Be careful on the roads tonight as there still could be some residual slippery spots from today’s snowfall.  Also, icy patches are possible as temperatures fall back to near 20 by daybreak and the breeze kicks up out of the west at 20 miles per hour.

 

Latest video forecasts can be found by clicking the weather tab on the wktv.com homepage and check out WKTV Weather on Facebook for frequent updates.

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Comments

  1. Michael (Dolgeville):

    4.25” inches for a storm total here.

    Posted February 19th at 11:23 PM

  2. Rob (Whitesboro):

    That was some heavy snow. 0.34 liquid at Rome. That would of been a foot if it was lake effect. Redfield picked up 9.0” today. They have exactly 30” on the ground and LES is just starting there. Nice storm for the weekend on GFS/Euro. Heaviest is just to our east right now.

    Posted February 20th at 1:56 AM

  3. Rob (Whitesboro):

    NAM brings the band into the valley now shortly after noon. Flow already looks 290ish on the west side of the lake.

    Posted February 20th at 4:19 AM

  4. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    19 degrees, windy, overcast, 1.6” of snow yesterday and last night , some of it heavy wet snow that settled or melted.

    Posted February 20th at 5:02 AM

  5. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    There was definitely an upslope component to yesterday’s event – particularly on south facing slopes.

    Posted February 20th at 5:20 AM

  6. Denys (East Winfield):

    18 degrees, overcast and windy. 1.5” of snow yesterday and last night.

    Posted February 20th at 5:26 AM

  7. Bill Kardas:

    Winds look strong enough to carry the Lake Erie band into the route 20 corridor. Added another 1-3” zone of snow to account for this effect.

    Posted February 20th at 5:54 AM

  8. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    It stayed all rain here for me until the bitter end. Had .10” of rain and 0.3” of snow.

    Posted February 20th at 5:55 AM

  9. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    BUFKIT mean wind keeps the band ~ 270 for the majority of the day. The band gradually crawls south this afternoon. Thinking the snow starts around the evening rush in the valley. Snow bands intensify after dark overnight, with a widespread couple of inches on the ground by tomorrow morning.

    Here’s the map for today: http://wktv.bimedia.net/snowfall.jpg

    And tonight:
    http://wktv.bimedia.net/snowfall2.jpg

    Posted February 20th at 5:59 AM

  10. Chris (HP CoCoRahs) (Holland Patent):

    Picked up another 1/2 inch over night as a more gentle snow fell. 6.5 inches so far and will be adding to it today it looks like. I really didn’t expect to see that much snow out of the system. I did a liquid equivalent and came up with .39 inches from the snow fall, which when shoveling last night was heavy and good snowball making snow!!

    Posted February 20th at 6:18 AM

  11. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Only 0.8” here yesterday

    Posted February 20th at 7:26 AM

  12. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Final measurement this morning was 6.0”... 900’ elevation…town park area.

    Got back to snowshoeing in the woods in back of my house yesterday… was great.. snowpack back up to 12”

    Really hoping the LES tonight/tomorrow and noreaster this weekend materialize. GFS has been giving areas east of 81 a solid hit…... time will tell

    Posted February 20th at 9:11 AM

  13. madmax (Turin):

    14.5 inches since yesterday afternoon up here in Turin.

    Posted February 20th at 9:44 AM

  14. Mel (Westernville):

    Looks like the band has been slowly drifting South and is in far Northern Oneida County. Been getting some occasional flurries here and it has clouded up.

    Posted February 20th at 10:29 AM

  15. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    We’re going to have a busy week again – models all converge on a heavy snow event over the weekend. We’re in the sweat spot this time around – we’ll see if the data stays consistent.

    Posted February 20th at 11:03 AM

  16. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Heavy Snow? My weekend off. Daytona. Bring it on.

    Posted February 20th at 11:07 AM

  17. Mel (Westernville):

    Light snow just started here. Bill – sweet spot or sweat spot LOL.

    Posted February 20th at 11:11 AM

  18. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    we got about 4” from yesterdays storm and another dusting today…..looking ahead to a busy end to the month and a wild beginning to March!

    Posted February 20th at 11:33 AM

  19. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Just .2 here yesterday, had snow most of the day but was just too warm out to accumulate.

    Posted February 20th at 11:39 AM

  20. Deb (Hartwick):

    ended up w/ 3 inches of snow from yesterday and overnight..
    28 degrees with some sunshine and windy this afternoon.
    I would LOVE to see a good snowstorm! season total here in Hartwick is only at 43.25 inches… not too impressive :(

    Posted February 20th at 11:48 AM

  21. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Today’s band is starting it’s march to the south. BUFKIT stalls the band for a few hours before dropping into the valley this evening.

    Posted February 20th at 11:52 AM

  22. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    Yowsah, the Cobb Data Table on Bufkit has the GFS 00z/12z giving us 17 inches, most of it from midnight Saturday thru 9 A.M. Sunday.

    Posted February 20th at 12:49 PM

  23. sue (fairfield):

    2” for me from yesterday…..blowing and blowing and blowing….hasn’t stopped

    Posted February 20th at 2:09 PM

  24. Mel (Westernville):

    Coming down pretty good now. visibility only 1/2 mile.

    Posted February 20th at 2:38 PM

  25. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Up to 15” in Redfield with 45” on the ground. 12” in Altmar too.

    Posted February 20th at 3:02 PM

  26. Mel (Westernville):

    Yeah rob – looks like the band stalled right at the North shore on Oneida lake for a while.

    Posted February 20th at 3:09 PM

  27. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I got a band aiming right for me. Seems to be getting a little better organized. Snowing pretty good here with the sun out.

    Posted February 20th at 3:12 PM

  28. Mel (Westernville):

    Snowing as hard now as it has all day.

    Posted February 20th at 4:09 PM

  29. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Lots of squalls here but nothing seems to be accumalating.

    Posted February 20th at 4:11 PM

  30. Deb (Hartwick):

    21 degrees…winds are still blustery…

    Posted February 20th at 4:51 PM

  31. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Snow is sticking now. Car and road is coated with snow.

    Posted February 20th at 5:14 PM

  32. Adam Musyt:

    Lake effect snow is arriving on schedule this evening. We’re into a steady light snow here at the station with a fresh light coating of accumulation within the last hour.


    Visibility is down to one mile in steady snow at RME and the temperature is now down to 22 degrees, the lowest it has been all day.


    Be alert for slippery roads through the evening and overnight.

    Posted February 20th at 6:05 PM

  33. Mel (Westernville):

    Left my hill at 4:30 and needed 4×4 until I got to the state park entrance and then the roads were just wet. Snowing in Rome as well with a little accumulation. 4” here so far today.

    Posted February 20th at 7:35 PM

  34. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Just got back from snowmobiling on Tug Hill. Some places just North of Swancotts Mills, must have 30+ inches of snow since yesterday morning.

    Posted February 20th at 9:43 PM

  35. Adam Musyt:

    Still a steady light snow here at the station. The band dropped southward to the Thruway just briefly but has since retreated to the north. Steadiest snows have been along and north of a line from Sylvan Beach to Rome to about Holland Patent.

    So far about a half inch of snow has accumulated here this evening, but its blowing around quite a bit. Incidentally, as of the top of the hour the wind has gusted to 35 miles per hour at Griffiss. The technical definition of a blizzard includes “sustained or frequent gusts to or above 35.” While the 35 mile per hour stuff has been decidedly infrequent, it’s still rather impressive. Watch out for blowing and drifting in addition to falling snow, in and north of Rome late this evening.

    Posted February 20th at 9:56 PM

  36. Mel (Westernville):

    Just measured and a little over 6” here today. Will post a pic on your website. And still snowing.

    Posted February 20th at 10:01 PM

  37. Adam Musyt:

    Mel – thanks for the report.

    Posted February 20th at 10:12 PM

  38. Adam Musyt:

    About one inch of snow has fallen so far tonight at our studios. Lots of blowing and drifting snow and occasional whiteouts.

    Posted February 20th at 11:11 PM

  39. Robert (Rome):

    Still snowing pretty nicely here in Rome. Estimate about 3 inches.

    Posted February 20th at 11:20 PM

  40. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Just drove back from Syracuse and it was pretty bad visability wise on the thruway. Only 1.0” here with moderate snow.

    Posted February 21st at 12:09 AM

  41. Chris (HP CoCoRahs) (Holland Patent):

    Round 2 results so far a nice new 8 inches as of 4am as we got hit good. Snow started 2:00 pm Wednesday afternoon and have had numerous bursts of moderate to heavy snow. Light snow is falling still and the winds are blowing the snow around a lot. Whiteouts are common around the area. Will update more in a few hours

    Posted February 21st at 4:05 AM

  42. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    15 degrees, windy, still snowing,1.7” of new snow.

    Posted February 21st at 4:51 AM

  43. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Snowing mod to heavy here.

    Posted February 21st at 5:12 AM

  44. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    2.5 inches here of fluff and 14 degrees.

    Posted February 21st at 5:24 AM

  45. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Looking for snowfall reports this morning. I measured 3.0” in North Utica before heading up the hill. There’s at least another inch up here on the hill, but the wind has drifted the snow all over the place.

    Winds today are concerning. Winds gust over 30mph again this afternoon. With the fresh snowfall, there could be localized whiteouts and intense snow drifts.

    Posted February 21st at 5:25 AM

  46. Denys (East Winfield):

    13 degrees, and still snowing here too! 2.2” of new snow….

    Posted February 21st at 5:26 AM

  47. Rob (Whitesboro):

    3.0” of snow here with a few flurries falling.

    Posted February 21st at 6:19 AM

  48. Lori (Bridgeport):

    snowing and blowing pretty hard here …blowing especally ….still no plow down my road….

    Posted February 21st at 7:17 AM

  49. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    2.7 inches here, still some light snow.

    Posted February 21st at 7:23 AM

  50. Lori (Bridgeport):

    arent we usually done with lake effect snow this late in the year ?

    Posted February 21st at 7:33 AM

  51. Stephen Smith:

    CoCoRaHS Station # NY-HR-6 location: 0.92 miles NW of the WKTV transmitter.
    Notification:
    The Daily Precipitation Report was saved. View on Map ( New | Classic )
    Daily Precipitation Report Edit
    Station Number: NY-HR-6
    Station Name: Little Falls 7.5 NW
    Observation Date 2/21/2013 6:00 AM
    Submitted 2/21/2013 7:06 AM
    Total Precip Amount
    0.18 inches
    Notes
    Flurries, 3.6” of New Snow fell over the reporting period yielding 0.18” of W.E. (water equivalent). Snowpack is now 10.5”. Bp:29.92“hg; T:13.4ºF; RH:52%; Wd:N bearing 356º; Ws:3.8 mph; Wg:12.8 mph.
    Taken at registered location Yes
    Snow Information
    New Snow Depth
    3.6 inches
    New Snow Water Equivalent 0.18 inches
    Total Snow Depth 10.5 inches
    Total Snow Water Equivalent NA

    CoCoRaHS New York is looking for volunteer precipitation observers . We provide the NWS, NOAA, NASA, and Federal/State Climate centers with accurate on the ground precipitation data used to quantify the accuracy of weather instruments and forecast models. To find out how you can help go to: http//www.cocorahs.org
    Local e-mail: cocorahshrny@gmail.com
    Herkimer County CoCoRaHS Coordinator
    Steve Smith

    Posted February 21st at 7:43 AM

  52. sue (fairfield):

    currently at my overnight low of 7…...still windy and have a wind chill of -teens…..will try to get a snow total but it was so windy….

    Posted February 21st at 7:57 AM

  53. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    We got 3.5 inches of fluff snow so far and it is still
    Snowing.
    I just checked out the AccuWeather radar, both
    Griffiss and Binghamton and it looks like the snow will be stopping soon.
    Wonder if some of the blast we just got didn’t show
    on radar??
    Temp. is 13* right now.

    Posted February 21st at 8:10 AM

  54. Chris (HP CoCoRahs) (Holland Patent):

    8 inches was the final tally from round 2 of the lake effect machine. Still some flurries falling here and cold out. Good thing is that the winds have slacked up some.

    Posted February 21st at 8:26 AM

  55. Bill Rockhill (Woodgate):

    It’s 9 degrees…...we had approx. 12” new snow with this storm…Bear Creek Road , Woodgate, New York…....it is still snowing …...lightly…...

    Posted February 21st at 8:40 AM

  56. Bill Rockhill (Woodgate):

    It’s 9 degrees…...we had approx. 12” new snow with this storm…Bear Creek Road , Woodgate, New York…....it is still snowing …...lightly…...

    Posted February 21st at 8:40 AM

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