Weather Blog | From Frosty to Fabulous in 48 hours

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The Canadian air mass that built into the region following Saturday's scattering of thunderstorms will continue to exert its influence on our weather through the overnight. The official low this morning at Griffiss Park registered 32 degrees. Our skywatcher George in Glenmore, Northwest Oneida County checked in with 21 degrees and a hard frost. Brrrr!

We're getting to the time of year where frosts and freezes in the Mohawk Valley are becoming less and less common (though as late as Memorial Day is still fair game in the normally colder and rural spots for a frost or freeze). Still, tonight will be another chilly one. Temperatures are expected to bottom out again in the 30-35 degree range for the Valley with 20's for the North Country and Adirondacks. Frost advisories are in effect for all of CNY - excluding elevated and rural areas where frosts are still common for this time of year. A freeze warning is in effect tonight for Oswego County.

The chill should begin to subside by midweek. An area of high pressure will dominate our weather through at least Wednesday. This high pressure ridge should squash most of the moisture associated with a mid-level disturbance to the southeast of the viewing area for our Tuesday. The feature will likely be close enough to cause some partial cloudiness - but we still expect a good bit of sunshine in the mix as well.

As the center of this area of high pressure slides to the east on Wednesday, it will allow for a southwesterfly flow of air to push warmer temperatures into the region. As 850 mb temperature recover to 4 degrees or so, our surface temperatures should make it well into the 60's at the very least. Wednesday looks to be the nicest day out of the next several. A cold front will move in from the west on Thursday with a good chance of more showers and thunderstorms. How much of a punch these thunderstorms produce will depend upon the time of day the cold front makes its move across New York and how much sunshine we see during the day. We'll continue to monitor the trends and keep you up to speed here on the blog.

In the meantime enjoy the sun during the day and keep the sweatshirts handy over the next couple of nights.

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Rob (Whitesboro):

That cold front must be packing quite a punch for mid week out in the Plains. It’s very rare to see a moderate risk area in the SPC Day 3 outlook. I talked to someone from Tupper Lake today and they said there were alot of trees down from Saturdays storms. He also said he had snow and sleet yesterday but it didn’t accumalate.

Posted May 11th at 8:04 PM
Adam Musyt:

No question about it. SPC is usually quite conservative with their outlooks and they are talking up the chance of a widespread severe event.

Check out the Lifted Index progs from the WRF model for 00z Thursday (Wednesday evening at 8 PM). Some of those values in Missouri are at -7! Very unstable air for Wednesday afternoon over Missouri and Illinois.

Posted May 11th at 8:22 PM
Adam Musyt:

Lifted Index forecast for Wednesday 8 PM

Wikipedia entry for Lifted Index

Posted May 11th at 8:27 PM
MG(Point Rock):

28 here this morning, one degree colder than yesterday.

Posted May 12th at 8:02 AM
TO MG WHITESBORO:

I would imagine when there are so FEW comments being made that the WKTV weather team think that no one is reading this. I would assume that. I check all the time and most times there are little if NO comments. We have to make regular comments too to make it interesting. Comment on what it is like in your backyard. ASK for an article on what you would like to see during the slow times. You know what they say – ask and you shall receive. There are VERY few comments being made by people who used to be frequent posters. That adds to it too. If we act indifferent then that is what we get. Come on people – interact!!

Posted May 12th at 8:16 AM
Bill Kardas:

Widespread frost again this morning. Most areas, aside from a few hilltops went near or below freezing. Expect the same tonight. After tonight, we should be clear of frost for at least the rest of the week (and hopefully beyond).

Posted May 12th at 10:45 AM
Bill Kardas:

By the way, our overnight low was officially 30 degrees. Surprisingly, that’s 2 degrees shy of tying the record low for the date, 28, set back on May 12th, 1963.

Posted May 12th at 11:00 AM
Working in Utica:

I think it would be interested to see some kind of summer weather prediction. Last year it seemed like we had hail storm after hail storm after hail storm. Are we setting up for a similar trend this summer? Wetter than normal? Below average precip? I’m not implying that the folks at WKTV have nothing to do, but rather I’m just curious as to what kind of summer we might have. I’m hoping for temps around 78 degrees every day, with sunny skies and a few passing clouds, not much humidity, and a light breeze! :)

Posted May 12th at 1:13 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

I was down to 31 degrees here this morning. The airmass next Sunday is looking colder than the previous one on the GFS. I’m glad I planted the garden early this year!

Posted May 12th at 1:18 PM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

I post here all the time. This is the same as most spring time without storms. Just because there is no posters doesn’t mean there is no interest. I have seen many times where there was almost a week or more without a new article. I am very pleased with the coverage lately. Especially when we had storms rolling through.

Posted May 12th at 3:56 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Adam is it possible for the temp to fall back toward the dewpoint even if 850 temps are at or above zero? I was just wondering because I have a dew of 22 degrees which is 7 degrees colder than last night at this time.

Posted May 12th at 8:28 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Temperature this morning got down to 33.8 degrees. Currently 52 degrees here.

Posted May 12th at 8:38 PM
Adam Musyt:

Rob,

Absolutely. With light winds, dry air and clear skies the temperatures at the surface often get below what they are at the 850 mb pressure level. That’s what we call a temperature inversion. Sometimes you can actually see these with the naked eye. Have you ever driven by a smokestack on a cold winter night and watched the smoke rise a few tens of feet into the air and then see it just spread out horizontally? Where the smoke stops rising is where the temperature begins to increase with height in this peculiar setup.

We need to have colder air over warmer air for air parcels to rise, expand, cool and condense into clouds and rain, but if there is a warmer layer above colder temperatures near the ground, the air stops rising.

In fact, this morning that very thing happened. Our low temperature (Celsius) earlier this morning was -1, but the 850 mb temperature was actually +2.

Posted May 12th at 9:51 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Ok I think I understand now. This sounds similiar to why we can’t get storms sometimes when we have good parameters. My dew has gone up quite a bit the last few hours. It’s 30 now.

Posted May 12th at 10:21 PM
jessie:

hello guys i am supose to be movine this weekend what day is the best of the two to move thanks guys

Posted May 13th at 10:31 AM
Bill Kardas:

Rob,

Exactly right. Oftentimes, a temperature inversion will set up a few thousand feet above the surface of the earth on a warm, sunny day. If this inversion prevents severe weather from happening, we call it a ‘capping inversion’. You often see this out in the midwest. If the inversion were to break (if temperatures warmed up enough near the surface), the cap breaks, and there’s often a violent rush of air upwards. This can create severe weather in a moments notice. It’s been known to go from clear, sunny skies to supercell storms in 30 minutes or less, given the right setup.

Posted May 13th at 10:33 AM
Jessie:

Well, if you can get a head start, Saturday morning/afternoon may be your best bet. Storms will develop later in the day. Sunday will be quite chilly but quite windy…not a day I’d want to move.

Posted May 13th at 10:35 AM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Severe weather outbreak now in the midwest. Kirksville Missouri just got hit by a large tornado. Here is a link to all the action.
http://www.severestudios.com/

Posted May 13th at 8:34 PM

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