From Fall Back to Summer

Posted September 5th, 2010 by Jill Reale. 31 comments

It was quite the dramatic change in seasons this week. We first had our second heat wave of the year with temperatures reaching 90 on both Wednesday and Thursday and 91 on Friday. We went from 91 on Friday to a high temperature of 69 on Saturday. Air aloft was so cold that we saw our first lake effect event this "fall". Officially, fall does not begin until September 22 but meteorologically speaking, summer is June-August and fall is September-November. All you need it a 13 degree difference between 850mb tempertures and Lake Ontario temperatures. Currently, Lake Ontario has a temperature of 73°, which is considerably warm, especially compared to last year. I posted an image of our RainVision, which captures rainfall amount for 24 hours. Some areas of Oswego County saw more that 3 inches of rainfall. If this was winter, lake effect snow amounts could be well over 4 feet! Summer looks to return for Labor Day into Tuesday as high pressure from the Ohio and Missouri Valley moves east, switching our winds to the southwest. Temperatures on Tuesday will once again return into the mid to upper 80s. Just by glancing at the 7 day forecast, you can tell fall is approaching. Fall is a transition period so we will have days of warm weather followed by a quick cool down.

Since Labor Day is upon us, I decided to do a quick summer 2010 recap:

Month Avg High Avg Low Avg Precip
June 74.7 (-1.1) 56.6 (+1.5) 65.6 (+0.1) 6.83" (+2.78")
July 82.9 (+2.5) 61.8 (+1.8) 72.3 (+2.1) 3.55" (-0.25")
Aug 78.8 (+0.5) 60.1 (+1.5) 69.5 (+1.0) 5.33" (+1.7")

Overall, the summer was 3.2 degrees above normal and 4.23" above normal int he precipitation department. The warmest day of the year occurred on July 8th, with a temperature of 94 degrees. Our lowest high temperature was 64 degrees on June 12th.  The lowest temperature occurred on both June 7 and 9 with a temperature of 45 degrees. The warmest low temperature was 72 degrees on August 4. 54 out of the 91 days had at least partial sunshine. We hit 90°+  5 days (all in July) and 80°+ 44 times. We only saw multiple severe storms 6 times during the summer, so it was quite quiet. Personally, I think it was one of the best summers we had in a long time.

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  1. MG(Point Rock):

    I agree, Jill — a good summer it was.
    I wound up with 0.65” from the lake effect band last night and today.

    Posted September 5th at 9:32 PM

  2. Becky:

    I’m still having a few light showers, so far my rain total is 1.34 inches.

    Yeah, we had a great Summer, I think it was one of the warmest we’ve had in years. The current water temp in Lake Ontario is one of the warmest on record. So The tug will most likely get slammed this winter. But no complaints from me, like Jill said, it was a great summer. To add to what Jill said about Water Temps, along with Ontario’s 73 degree temp… Lake Erie is at 72 degrees. These numbers are 3-4 degrees off their ALL time highs and way above average.. The bigger picture is this: Since upwelling and mixing has slowed dramatically these numbers have stabilized over the past few weeks. The mixing from the bottom of the lakes would alter these temperatures normally however, the depth of the temperatures go much further beneath the surface then normal years. This means it will take much longer to cool the lakes into the heart of winter, so they will supply plenty of support for BIG time Lake Effect snows! This is why I think we’re going to have one of those so called “old fashion winters” time will tell

    Posted September 6th at 12:24 AM

  3. Becky (West Leyden):

    Tony, to ans your previous post, hope to have everything ready. However, I’m normally still finishing up a few things just before the snow flies. : )

    Posted September 6th at 1:10 AM

  4. Tony - CNYWeather.com:

    Hope its an old fashioned winter Becky!!

    Here, 0.05 over the last 3 days.Overnight low ow 43 degrees.

    Posted September 6th at 9:41 AM

  5. Anthony (Oriskany):

    It is not very nice today. I expected at least partial sun.

    Posted September 6th at 1:16 PM

  6. Becky (West Leyden):

    Tropical Storm Hermine will be bringing flooding rain into parts of southern Texas.

    Anthony, I was hoping for a little more in the way of sunshine this afternoon too . But, take my word for it, high pressure is building. So the warm front will bring in warmer air tonight on a southerly flow. it will be fairly mild tonight . Tomorrow should be a nicer day with a lot more in the way of sun with temps in the Valley possibly in the low to mid 80’s and the North Country in the mid to high 70’s. It will be short lived as a Strong cold front is moving in late Tuesday. this will bring the chance for showers Tuesday night , there also could be a lone thunderstorm or two Tuesday . BUFKIT shows Wednesday will have showers and should be fairly breezy with winds 10-25 mph with gust as high as 35-40 mph to the lee of Ontario. The temps Wednesday will be in the 60’s and maybe little lower that.

    Posted September 6th at 3:52 PM

  7. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Looks like we might have another round of lake effect rain Wed afternoon into Thursday, once the cold front passes through. 850s drop to around 6°C.

    Tomorrow marks the 12th anniversary of the infamous Labor Day storm

    Posted September 6th at 5:26 PM

  8. MG(Point Rock):

    Do you think the remnants of tropical storm Hermine will affect our weather this coming weekend?

    Posted September 6th at 7:20 PM

  9. Anthony (Oriskany):

    Becky – Too bad I have to work tomorrow ;-( oh well. No complaints, this summer was exceptional.

    Posted September 6th at 10:00 PM

  10. fairfield:

    can anyone tell me what happened to the text part of the weather forecast that comes up on the weather page

    Posted September 7th at 10:07 AM

  11. Becky (West Leyden):

    MG, Moisture from Hermine is working its way north. It’s too early to tell how much moisture from what’s left of Hermine interacts with the weekend frontal system.

    fairfield, the text seems to be OK, at least on my computer

    Posted September 7th at 11:06 AM

  12. Becky (West Leyden):

    Models and BUFKIT are showing little change from earlier thoughts, showers and maybe a few t-storms move in tonight. tomorrow and Thur. will be windy with a WNW-NW flow over Ontario, this will cause LER to form downwind of the lake.

    Posted September 7th at 11:16 AM

  13. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Lake effect is the going trend over the next few days. Enjoy the summer warmth one more time…it could be a while before we make it this far into the 80s. As for the website, I can’t find anything wrong with the text…it’s been working all morning on my end. Let me know if this is still an issue.

    Posted September 7th at 11:31 AM

  14. fairfield:

    very weird because from my screen i see, from the main weather page….the seven day forecast icon, the today icon and the radar then underneathe where the text is usually …..mohawk valley and then north country and southern teer, it instead goes to the box below where the younews photos, web cam, weather blog icons are…..must be my lucky day for computer mess ups!

    Posted September 7th at 11:55 AM

  15. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Now that summer is unofficially over, a lot of folks are going to start thinking about winter. Just a reminder, our winter outlook will be released in early November, as it has over the past several years.

    Posted September 7th at 12:39 PM

  16. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    sounds like a style sheet issue fairfield. Maybe clear your cookies or your internet cache.

    Posted September 7th at 12:39 PM

  17. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Fairfield,

    Don’t know how that happened. We added a .jpg file to the weather page. Perhaps that’s where your issues are coming from?

    Posted September 7th at 12:39 PM

  18. Becky (West Leyden):

    fairfield, to add to what Tony said, also clearing your internet history can sometimes help. however, deleting the temporary internet files/cache and cookies should do the trick. If that doesn’t work, if you don’t have Firefox or Chrome on your PC, download the newest version of them and see they display OK.

    Posted September 7th at 12:55 PM

  19. sara:

    bill—are the thunderstorms going to be garden variety?

    Posted September 7th at 6:06 PM

  20. Rob (Whitesboro):

    There’s some good storms ahead of the front out west. Last time we had a setup like this the lift indices held right through the overnight just ahead of the front. There’s just enough shear to keep things going too. The high here was 85 today.

    Posted September 7th at 6:50 PM

  21. fairfield:

    whatever i may have done i think finally fixed it….although i didn’t go back to check things right away but yipee, i can see it again, funny part is i just got firefox a about a couple of months ago and took your advice becky and updated

    Posted September 7th at 7:19 PM

  22. Becky (West Leyden):

    fairfield, computers can be a pain sometimes.

    I’m getting a fairly good lightshow from the line that will be coming onshore in a few min in Jefferson and Oswego Counties. a few of the cells are flagging small hail.

    Posted September 7th at 9:24 PM

  23. Becky (West Leyden):

    Getting quite a bit of lightning along with some light to moderate rain

    Posted September 7th at 10:03 PM

  24. Mike(Rome):

    Becky, I am also seeing some very bright lightning as well. Anything severe expected tonight or are these just run of the mill storms?

    Posted September 7th at 10:04 PM

  25. Adam Musyt:

    Some distant lightning can be seen off to our northwest.

    Severe thunderstorms are not likely tonight. There were a few beefier cells in Western NY earlier but they’ve since weakened. Local CAPE values are very low.

    Posted September 7th at 10:09 PM

  26. jessie (ilion):

    Just a simple question wahts the weather look like for tomorrow morning say around 8 i have to walk my son to his first day of kindergarden and dont want to take the chance of it raining while walking him with my 2 year old to school… And how about them storms anything to worry about or just everyday storms

    Posted September 7th at 10:14 PM

  27. Becky (West Leyden):

    Mike, Nothing severe is expected, I guess we could have an isolated strong cell but I think it is doubtful However, some of the cells could have a little wind with them.

    Posted September 7th at 10:15 PM

  28. Becky (West Leyden):

    The LER will start up in the North Country and then move into the Valley later in the day.

    Posted September 7th at 10:22 PM

  29. Adam Musyt:

    Still 81 degrees in Syracuse as of 10 PM. That’s getting to be unusual now that we are approaching mid-September.

    The cold front is now east of Cleveland. Dew point fell from 66 to 49 in the last hour there.

    Posted September 7th at 10:46 PM

  30. Becky (West Leyden):

    That’s amazing

    Posted September 7th at 10:59 PM

  31. James:

    Hearing a good deal of Thunder right now in Herkimer and the rain is starting to pick up.

    Posted September 8th at 12:28 AM

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