From Arctic Freeze to Tropical Warmth....

Posted January 2nd, 2008 by Matt Lanza. 128 comments

Wild swings in the weather here over the next 5 days. This is probably one of the most incredible pattern turnarounds you'll ever see. We will be going from a true Arctic air mass and the "dead of winter," to potentially near record warmth for the month of January.

Let's explain. Here's a look at a 500 mb forecast map for this evening. This gives you an idea of what the upper level conditions are like over us. Notice, in the east, a tremendously sharp trough is carved out, extending all the way into South Florida! This explains the freeze concerns in that area. 850 mb temperatures tonight are forecasted to plunge to -21 degrees Celsius. This supports below zero temperatures tonight and bitter cold tomorrow.

Let's fast forward 24 hours to tomorrow evening. Here's a look at the forecasted 500 mb map. Notice, that the trough is now well east of our area. So at this point the deepest cold is out of the area. Temperatures will still fall off tomorrow night rapidly, but that drop will be halted at some point during the night by warming temperatures aloft. In fact, by Friday morning, our 850 mb temperatures recover all the way to -11 degrees. That's just about normal for this time of year!

By Saturday evening, the weather pattern over the US begins shifting. Here's a look at the 500 mb map for Saturday evening. Notice over the Pacific Ocean, a major trough is beginning to get carved out. This is forcing 500 mb heights (the solid black lines) to rise over the eastern part of the US and Canada. Warming is continuing at this time. The little "X" over Indiana indicates a weak disturbance in the upper atmosphere, a shortwave trough, that will bring us the chance of some light precipitation on Sunday. 850 mb temps at this time are up to 0 degrees!

Let's move forward. Here is Monday evening. Now you see the pattern shift. A major ridge builds over the East...with a strong trough out west. With 500 mb heights getting this high, temperatures should easily exceed 50 degrees. On top of that, the evidence is furthered by looking at 850 mb temperatures, which are up to 6.5 degrees.

By Tuesday evening, here's the 500 mb map. 850 mb temperatures also rise to almost +10 degrees!

So I went back and looked at 1995, when we hit 65 degrees on the 14th of January. 850 mb temperatures were around +10 and 500 mb heights were around 573 or so. That is very comparable to what we're seeing next week. Model forecast temperatures are in the upper 30s to low 40s. As I said in a comment in the previous entry, these model forecast temperature products are built with algorithms that say "it's winter." So when it warms up, the computer products want to stick to the fact that it's winter, so they run colder than they should. Next week's record highs?

Monday: 60 degrees (1930)
Tuesday: 59 degrees (1930)
Wednesday: 54 degrees (1965)

The potential exists for both Tuesday and Wednesday's high temperatures to push or exceed records.

And while a storm system may change things up a bit Wednesday night and into Thursday, we do not look to really cool off. So enjoy the cold and snow while we have it, because I have a bad feeling about the next 10 days.

Tags:

Add a Comment

Comments

  1. Becky (West Leyden):

    Temperature is up one degree to -4. Wind is out of the NNW at 7 mph
    Nice night to sit by the fire.

    Posted January 2nd at 8:32 PM

  2. mike m ( binghamton):

    matt couldnt the extensive snowpack across the midwest and Northeast take the edge off this warm air; with temps say only pushing 50 for a day or two instead of the upper 50s?

    Posted January 2nd at 8:33 PM

  3. Matt Lanza:

    Mike: Not with this kind of warm up. I have hedged temperatures lower in the Friday through Sunday timeframe than I would have normally gone, because I think the cold is going to hold on...and the snowpack will also help that. But you're basically taking a Bermuda high and planting it in the middle of winter. There's almost no way the warm air is going to be held back.

    Posted January 2nd at 8:36 PM

  4. Mel (Westernville):

    Here is the link to an article in Florida that talks about the potential for Ocean Effect snow in Daytona Beach: http://www.local6.com/weather/14959516/detail.html

    Posted January 2nd at 9:05 PM

  5. mike m ( binghamton):

    well this sounds really bad for the snowpack.

    Posted January 2nd at 9:06 PM

  6. mike m ( binghamton):

    matt, why is bgm cutting way back on snow potential tonight? do you see any evidence of that shortwave coming through soon?

    Posted January 2nd at 9:09 PM

  7. Lauren (Frankfort):

    Snow in central Florida is that possible? I know with this freeze but is that likely, I know up in the Mountains, of Georgia, Tennessee...etc states does; but with Florida?!

    Posted January 2nd at 9:10 PM

  8. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    Mel: Just pickin, but ewww, channel 6? Why not WESH? I like them miles better and at least it'll be another NBC channel.

    WESH-2 Weather Plus
    Speaking of that, I'm shocked WKTV went with Storm Tracker instead of Weather Plus.

    Posted January 2nd at 9:14 PM

  9. Rob(whitesboro):

    Temps warming a little here.Up to 4 now from zero a few hours ago.

    Posted January 2nd at 9:29 PM

  10. Matt Lanza:

    Mike M: It's very dry out, so I'm guessing that's why they're being gun shy. It's tough with this type of air mass.

    Rome went from -3 to +1 over the last couple hours.

    Posted January 2nd at 9:44 PM

  11. Rob(whitesboro):

    Looks like the cold spot is -14 in Long Lake.
    Mike your Finger lake snows are finally showing up.

    Posted January 2nd at 9:54 PM

  12. mike m (binghamton):

    Rob, yea they are just starting to blossom, i hope they extend far enough off the lakes to get me here. we could use a little more snoe, bc it will all be gone soon(here at least).

    Posted January 2nd at 10:03 PM

  13. Becky (West Leyden):

    Our temp here went went up to -3 for a little while. Now it has falling back to -5

    Posted January 2nd at 10:12 PM

  14. Kurt (Miami, FL):

    Thanx to Bob from Cooperstown for the info. I don't have my exact dates worked out just yet, but looks like around the 15th for me. I've been to your area a few times, over the years, in Jan and/or Dec...and I love it! I just may move there some day. I love the snow and decorations and everything..and looking forward to more!
    To Matt from Dolgeville and Mike from Port Leyden...Believe me, I hear you..and some people, including my girlfriend (who is from W PA, near Pitt) thinks I'm a bit nuts. But, living in FL my whole life has made me have a surprisingly high level of appreciation for snow and cold. Being in Miami isn't that much fun. Often, the heat is almost unbearable and other times, it is literally unbearable. Plus he have the hurricanes. It's just not fun, believe me. I have some relatives up north, not too far from there...and I know what it's like. I've shoveled my share of snow (considering I'm from Miami) and I have even driven in whiteout conditions. I've been there when it was 15 below ( w/o the windchill.) My girlfriend bet me I couldn't stand outside in that for more than 10 minutes, but I did for almost an hour...just for fun. It's hard to explain, but, for me, even the worst winter conditions up there are far more enjoyable than the "best' down here. There is absolutely nothing I like about the weather here...except maybe for days like today. Plus my cooling bills....OMG...I could go on and on. I'm sure some people would gladly trade places with me (and vice versa), which, I guess, just goes to prove the "grass is always greener on the other side" theory. But, anyway, the only thing I can add, is that I am very much looking forward to being up there. It is always the highlight of my year. I love everything about it.

    Posted January 2nd at 10:18 PM

  15. Rob(whitesboro):

    Mt Wash,NH is at -11 with winds gusting to 76mph.That's about as bad as it gets.

    Posted January 2nd at 10:20 PM

  16. Matt Lanza:

    Just got a -10 report from Alder Creek!

    Posted January 2nd at 10:43 PM

  17. randy Vitullo:

    Kurt, I hope that you will be up here for awhile. If we receive the forecasted temps for next Mon. through Wed., most of the snow will be gone. We probably will return to white by he 20th or so. I hope you are here for that. For me, the thaw is not good. I love all four seasons for what they are. I love winter when its white. Think snow Kurt.

    Posted January 2nd at 10:53 PM

  18. mike m ( binghamton):

    kurt, i completly understand, there is something about a fresh fallen snow that is so exciting. living in miami would probably be quite boring after a while. it is practically the same everday from may through september." today expect sun in the morning followed by increasing afternoon clouds with scattered thunderstorms likely this afternoon, highs in the mid 80s heat index in the mid to uppper 90s....and just the same everyday, until A) a hurricane comes then the forecast looks more like this" today expect heavy rain and wind, winds will be NE at 60-80 mph with gusts as high as 100 mph. high near 75" or B) you get a heatwave where the forecast might look more like this "over the next 5 days expect hazy hot and humid conditions with highs near 93 everyday, heat index may approach 110." anyways you get my point the weather is either boring or bad.cny offers quite a nice mix of weather.

    Posted January 2nd at 10:54 PM

  19. Matt (HP):

    Off Topic:

    Im digging Conan's beard.

    Jay Leno is funnier when he writes his own jokes. Maybe its time for new writers.

    Posted January 2nd at 11:40 PM

  20. mike m ( binghamton):

    moderate "diamond dust" (i love that phrase) falling down here now, visibilites are running around a mile, but the flakes are tiny.

    Posted January 2nd at 11:43 PM

  21. mike m ( binghamton):

    snow becoming heavier still, visibilites under 1 mile now.

    Posted January 3rd at 12:06 AM

  22. Becky (West Leyden):

    Temperature is down to -8. Winds are 4 mph out of the NNW.

    Posted January 3rd at 1:54 AM

  23. kurt (Miami, FL):

    To Randy...Yes, I am pretty sure I will be there for that. I am very hopeful that it will be a winter wonderland for at least half the time I am there. I am cautiously optimistic.

    To Mike M...Yep...you pretty much hit the nail right on the head!

    Posted January 3rd at 2:02 AM

  24. Kurt (Miami, FL):

    To Lauren...Yes, snow in FL, especially N. FL, isn't terribly as rare as one might think...and could happen tonight. Also, I am old enough to remember when it last snowed in Miami. It was in Jan of 77 (the 19th, I believe). We got about a half an inch, or so, in the S. Miami area. (Plus a whole bunch of icicles.) At the time, I just thought it was just frost, because it fell at about 4am, while I was asleep. But, I found out later, that is was, indeed, snow. I kept one of the icicles in the freezer for a while, as a souvenir, cuz I had never seen one before that.

    Posted January 3rd at 2:11 AM

  25. mike m( binghamton):

    well the bottom dropped out, we are down to 1 degree here, and rome is at -9. im sure other areas are much colder.

    Posted January 3rd at 7:09 AM

  26. Linnette in Waterville:

    -10 here this morning. Had to wait inside for the school bus with my son. Way to cold to stand outside and wait.

    Posted January 3rd at 8:02 AM

  27. Rob(whitesboro):

    Woke up to -11 here.

    Posted January 3rd at 8:10 AM

  28. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    I got one lower for you Matt. First off we had nothing but clear starlit skies and absolutely no wind last night here. From 7pm to 10p last night the temperature dropped from 16 degrees to -5 in 3 hours!!! My wife said that it was -10 when she took the kids to the bus at 7am, But when I got up just a shade before 8AM it was a whooping -14!!!! Its 10AM now and still just under the 0 degree mark at -1.4. But the sun is shining now and I am sure it will heat things up a bit!! I have a question Matt. With 4 or 5 days with 40-50 degrees will that have enough heat and sunlight to get rid of the snow/ice pack on my driveway????

    Posted January 3rd at 10:08 AM

  29. Mel (Westernville):

    Jeff - I am with you. I know it won't melt the snowpack which is at 21", but it would be nice to get my driveway back - it is very icy. Had trouble plowing the other day just kept spinning the tire in the truck. When it snowed back on Sunday night it must have melted a little on contact at first, since the driveway was partially bare then. When I went out Monday to plow it was a slippery mess. Up to 1 degree here - only made it down to -6 last night. Total Snowfall Season to date at 63.10". Looks like Woods Valley's snow guns are firing away!

    Posted January 3rd at 10:21 AM

  30. Rob(whitesboro):

    I feel that my snowpack is in jeporady.Dews with this airmass could sore well into the 40's along with a strong SW wind.Ideal conditions for a rapid snowmelt.
    Seasonal snowfall-39.5"
    Snow on ground-11"

    Posted January 3rd at 10:28 AM

  31. Jeff (Southern Hills):

    Yes the driveway is not nice esp. since it is about 300 feet long and uphill!!! I see Matt you have the Seasonal thing up and running so here is mine.

    Seasonal snowfall- 42"
    Snow on ground- 13"

    Posted January 3rd at 10:41 AM

  32. Mel (Westernville):

    Yeah mine is full of hills and about 1,000' off of the main road. Takes 20 minutes to plow on a good day.

    Posted January 3rd at 11:15 AM

  33. Becky (West Leyden):

    We got down to -13 overnight.

    Seasonal snowfall- 77.8"
    snow on the ground- is 25-30 inches

    Posted January 3rd at 11:41 AM

  34. Mel (Westernville):

    With this warmup getting under way it is interesting that the NWS BGM is still calling for a wintry mix and freezing rain Saturday Night & Sunday in their graphic forecast.

    Posted January 3rd at 11:52 AM

  35. Rob(whitesboro):

    Yeah it looks like a light mix for some.GFS still showing a wild storm in the long range.At least we'll have something to watch for as next week seems very boring.

    Posted January 3rd at 12:02 PM

  36. Bob (Cooperstown):

    Woke to -5 in the Village at 7am went to work 3 miles down the road at 8am was -17 big change temp now 7 above

    Posted January 3rd at 1:01 PM

  37. Matt Lanza:

    Mel: With this strength of cold air, sometimes it takes a lot longer to erode than the models will suggest. So even though whatever does fall Sat night and Sunday will be very light, it will likely fall as a mix of freezing rain and plain rain.

    Forecasted model low temps for tonight are around 8-10 degrees. I have a feeling temperatures are going to free fall for the next several hours and some locations do stand a shot at going under this morning's low temps by midnight. Then, as cloud cover, a little wind and warmer air wins out, I do suspect temps will slowly rise toward daybreak. But be ready tonight because it could get really cold, really fast.

    Posted January 3rd at 3:11 PM

  38. Lauren (Frankfort):

    By the end of this week, should the NWS put flood watches out? for the melting snow!
    Thanks Kurt, I actually would never expect that Florida got snow; but now I do.

    Posted January 3rd at 3:40 PM

  39. Matt Lanza:

    Lauren: Snowpack isn't ripe or deep enough in most places and we're not anticipating significant rainfall through next Tuesday, so we should be fine.

    Posted January 3rd at 4:25 PM

  40. mike m ( binghamton):

    matt, are you stariting to get confident enough to maybe throw a number out there of how much snow u expect to melt?...this is very approximate of course. i know my snow will be gone, only 6 inches out there,it may have a fighting chance in the woods though.

    Posted January 3rd at 4:34 PM

  41. Matt Lanza:

    Mike: I honestly don't know how to forecast snowmelt. But, when I'm tossing a 56 with some sunshine out there, I think most snow from the Mohawk Valley southward (except large piles and also sheltered/shaded areas) will be gone by this time next week....especially if we get some rain.

    Posted January 3rd at 4:53 PM

  42. Becky (West Leyden):

    Were at -1 in West Leyden. The wind is 3 mph from the W. we also have some clouds building in.

    Posted January 3rd at 4:57 PM

  43. Matt Lanza:

    The battle over the next few hours will be falling temps vs. cloud cover. We'll see who wins out.

    Posted January 3rd at 5:00 PM

  44. Becky(West Leyden):

    Temperatures are dropping like a rock. were at -5 now.

    Posted January 3rd at 5:31 PM

  45. mike m (binghamton):

    matt, yea i didnt know if u could forecast that lol, 6 degrees here and falling rapidly.

    Posted January 3rd at 5:34 PM

  46. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    Down to -4 here.

    Posted January 3rd at 5:57 PM

  47. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    -0.4 degrees here. Temp this morning got down to -8F. I can just about guarantee that the snowpack up here will just compact, not totally melt. There is just way too much snow on the ground for a total meltdown. I just went out and took a measurement of snow on the ground and averaged about 18 inches. My guess is that it will compact down to between 6-12" inches here.

    Posted January 3rd at 6:02 PM

  48. Becky (West Leyden):

    Were down to -8 now.

    Posted January 3rd at 6:30 PM

  49. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Down to -5F here!

    Posted January 3rd at 7:15 PM

  50. randy Vitullo:

    Shaded north facing slopes will fair the best with keeping any snow. A thaw of 4 or 5 days with 30s and 40s would not take all of the snow. A thaw of 4 or 5 days with a couple of 50s and possible 60 thrown in will take most of the snow; even here in Holland Patent. I will be surprised if the 8 to 14 inch base survives this horrible up coming thaw. Warm temperatures at the end of March; great. Warm temperatures now; a disaster for winter businesses and for winter sport's enthusiasts. The upcoming thaw is like getting a week of 40 degree temperatures in June..............with a little snow thrown in. Nice hey?

    Posted January 3rd at 7:29 PM

  51. Becky(West Leyden):

    Temperature is now -10. RH is 89% making our Dew point is -12.

    Posted January 3rd at 7:40 PM

  52. Jules (Ilion):

    Cant wait for the mild weather.....welcome break from the miserable cold....lovin it....

    Posted January 3rd at 7:42 PM

  53. Mike (N. Rome, West of Lake Delta):

    On a different topic, will we be able to see the meteor shower around these parts tonight?

    Posted January 3rd at 8:19 PM

  54. Matt Lanza:

    Best time to view the Quadrantids tonight will be between 9 PM and 2 AM. Cloud cover isn't far away though, so you'll have a shot at seeing it...clouds are still back by Rochester, so we have a little time. If you can bear the cold, then by all means, go ahead outside. Look due east. This is rare for CNY to be able to have a shot to see these....usually, we get hosed by cloud cover.

    Posted January 3rd at 8:25 PM

  55. Becky(West Leyden):

    The thermometer just went to -11. dew point is -13

    Posted January 3rd at 8:30 PM

  56. Matt(Marcy):

    -9 here in marcy

    Posted January 3rd at 9:16 PM

  57. Mel (Westernville):

    I see NWS BGM is only calling for highs in the mid 40's Mon-Wed up this way and lows around freezing so would be surprised if we even lose half our snowpack (21")- saw the snowmobile groomer out tonite! Only down to zero here as of 10:00.

    Posted January 3rd at 10:21 PM

  58. Rob(whitesboro):

    Made a trip to the Fulton area today.Snow there was actually scarce.I found a pocket of probably 2 feet just south of C.Square..Mexico maybe..but it was only for a few miles...cool though as it just came out of nowheres and it faded just as quick as it came.

    Posted January 3rd at 10:22 PM

  59. Becky (West Leyden):

    were down to -12 Our dew point is -13. I think this is as far as were dropping.

    Posted January 3rd at 10:39 PM

  60. Becky (West Leyden):

    Rob... up this way our snowpack is around 28 inches

    Posted January 3rd at 10:42 PM

  61. Wayne (Marcy):

    Temps are starting to rise a little here...up to -1.5

    Posted January 3rd at 10:45 PM

  62. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    -6F degrees here. If anybody is bored go outside and try the boiling water trick. Really cool!

    Posted January 3rd at 11:04 PM

  63. Matt(HP):

    I forgot what the boiling water trick was!
    I got the lacrosse weather station today.
    Temp has been off it seems, but that maybe a couple things.

    Posted January 3rd at 11:31 PM

  64. Becky (West Leyden):

    temp is up to -8 now. Were having a heat wave!

    Posted January 3rd at 11:46 PM

  65. Becky (West Leyden):

    Matt...The boiling water trick... is take a cup of boiling water and toss it in the sub zero air then you will hear a loud snap.

    Posted January 3rd at 11:52 PM

  66. Matt (HP):

    Sweet!!!!!

    Posted January 3rd at 11:57 PM

  67. Kurt (Miami, FL):

    We tied two and broke three record lows last night/this morning in the SoFL area. (Technically yesterday, since I see it's now after midnight.) Key West even broke their record low from 1898. There was even some....drumroll......ocean effect snow (with a tad of accumulation) about 2 1/2 hours N of Miami. To my knowledge, every town in the Miami area got into the 30's...and some sub-freezing, just to the N and W. The only holdout was Miami Beach, which held at 40. On TV, we saw people playing in the snow, right on the beach. It kind of just looked like some surf foam, but it wasn't. But, I still haven't personally witnessed snow in FL in almost 21 years, but I would sure like to , again one day.

    Posted January 4th at 12:32 AM

  68. Andrea (Utica):

    Checking the weather channel for temps in Piseco and Salisbury areas for the 10 day forecast doesnt look as bad as originally thought. Only one day over 40 and two over 45 with snow Thursday and Friday. Hoping to keep a snowpack for snowmobiling. Maybe all is not lost. Of course that rain may not help matters any. :(

    Posted January 4th at 3:51 PM

  69. Rob(whitesboro):

    Monster 956mb storm is crushing Califonia.A wind gust of 165mph was just reported in the Sierra.Storm could dump 5-8 ft of snow there.

    Posted January 4th at 5:13 PM

  70. Matt Lanza:

    Rob: You bet...this thing is a monster. Big news out there.

    Posted January 4th at 6:02 PM

  71. heather(germaNn flatts):

    still chilly here temp.. is 22 degrees when are we gonna get this stormand are you serious 5-8 ft of snow?

    Posted January 4th at 7:29 PM

  72. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    16 degrees here. Temp maxed out at 24 degrees today. Heather, I heard some numbers going around from some other sources of 6-12 feet!!! Pretty cool, just too bad that wasn't us.

    Posted January 4th at 7:40 PM

  73. heather(german flatts):

    No offence Michael but personally I think I've had enough snow.. Does anyone remember the website wktv show during the commercials of the 11 pm news for the site where people give things they dont need away. I know its not weather related but I kinda thought since we all watch wktv news someone might remember. And I think theyshould put a link to that page on the main page..

    Posted January 4th at 8:20 PM

  74. Matt Lanza:

    Heather: Not sure which site your talking about. I guess it's not an in house thing..must be an advertiser. Otherwise, I think it would be somewhere on our page.

    I just threw together a map of wind gusts across the Sierra Nevada. I may show it at 11 if I have time (and if it shows anything fun). I have like 8 places on the map, but only five are reporting anything and those gusts are under 40 mph. Oh well. There's not much to add about our forecast. A quiet weekend, followed by a warm early week. Models show a return to cool, not cold, by the end of the week and into the weekend. Maybe this will be a normal January thaw when all is said and done, despite the ridiculous early warmth. We'll see.

    Posted January 4th at 8:25 PM

  75. heather(german flatts):

    thanks matt I'll look for it tonight its community something or other.

    Posted January 4th at 8:31 PM

  76. Mel (Westernville):

    And I am flying to Monterey, CA NEXT Saturday - luckily it is not tomorrow :-)

    Posted January 4th at 8:47 PM

  77. Matt (HP):

    Monterey, Take me with you!!
    My aunt lives in SJ and was going up into the mountains this weekend.
    Hopefully she'll be okay.

    Posted January 4th at 10:02 PM

  78. mike m ( binghamton):

    yea this california storm is a monster...i heard 7-10 feet of snow above 6000 feet in the mountains, with wind gusts to 120( or 165 as rob reported). after the thaw it looks to be marginally cold with chnaes for some big snows. however these storms could go either way rain or snow. after that (1/20?) it COULD get much colder as artic air may try to make a run at as.

    Posted January 4th at 10:40 PM

  79. Lauren (Frankfort):

    Is that storm out in California, going into Nevada...is a front? or a possible La Nina or El Nino factoring? sounds significant out there...possible 3/4 of Nevada are under a winter storm warning.

    Posted January 4th at 10:54 PM

  80. Matt (HP):

    Yea, Snow in Florida.
    A Storm resembling a hurricane/tropical storm is hitting the west coast.
    And we're expecting near record temps this week.

    Apparently someone angered the big guy!

    Where are we with temps for this week and should we expect any kind of flooding from snow melt?

    Posted January 4th at 11:01 PM

  81. Matt Lanza:

    Mike: The one hope I have is that the PNA index is progged to go positive around the 10th. We're not going to clean the mess up in the Atlantic Ocean for blocking, but just getting the Pacific back open would be huge. You can see this reflected in the fact that, while not truly cold, it will turn cooler by next weekend.

    Posted January 4th at 11:02 PM

  82. Matt Lanza:

    Matt: It depends on how much rain falls Wednesday. At this point, the snow melt alone will not cause problems. But, if we get some significant rain, we'll need to watch.

    Posted January 4th at 11:06 PM

  83. Jules (Ilion):

    yuk...10f here in Ilion at 6:40am

    Posted January 5th at 6:43 AM

  84. randy Vitullo:

    A gorgeous 16 F in Holland Patent. Thaw isn't looking as vicious at this point. Hopefully, we will keep some of the snowpack. Matt, do you really think that upper 50s is possible on Tuesday?

    Posted January 5th at 9:06 AM

  85. lisa:

    Is the potential freezing rain this evening going to pose a hazard of any typ? or will it be minimal enough not to pose any problems?

    Posted January 5th at 9:51 AM

  86. Matt Lanza:

    Randy: If I didn't think it were possible, I wouldn't be forecasting it ;). Short lived, but intense. In fact...MOS values...the actual computer model output for Tuesday, which started at 34 back on New Year's Day, are now up to 54 degrees. And MOS tends to underdo the strength of the warmth in this situation, especially when you're dealing with near-record warmth. So I feel comfortable with the 58 out there.

    Lisa: Any freezing rain poses a hazard...the good news? The roads are caked in salt, so it shouldn't create much more than a few icy patches on area roadways. This would be a nuisance icing, so I wouldn't cancel any plans...just give yourself a few extra minutes tonight to get where you need to be.

    Posted January 5th at 10:35 AM

  87. randy Vitullo:

    Thanks Matt.

    Posted January 5th at 12:06 PM

  88. Mark in Williamson Sodus area wayne county:

    big heavy wet snow happening here now, heading your way. half dollar size flakes. I hope it lasts a while. temps at. 33

    Posted January 5th at 3:08 PM

  89. mike m ( binghamton):

    we had sleet and snow mixed then as the temp dropped it changed to rain...weird, we are sitting at 33.1 degrees so if the temp keeps falling we could get some freezing rain.

    Posted January 5th at 5:21 PM

  90. Matt (HP):

    I assume there is only going to be a "11 o Clock" news tonight

    Posted January 5th at 5:33 PM

  91. Bill Kardas:

    Matt...yes, just an 11. We're taping a 6pm webcast since we can't go on.

    Posted January 5th at 6:13 PM

  92. Bill Kardas:

    900mb mixing layer on Tuesday yields 71 degrees!!! If this was April I'd wing it out in a heart beat, but what snow we have left will help to keep that 71 to more like 61. The front is far enough to the north on Tuesday that we should see plenty of sunshine. Should be a terrific day!

    Posted January 5th at 6:16 PM

  93. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    Heck, as much as I love snow, I love heat, why not just wing out a 81? Not in January.

    Anybody else want to have another "winter in a week," week-long les, or whatever you call it.

    Posted January 5th at 9:21 PM

  94. randy Vitullo:

    I will have to fire up the grill on Tuesday......Did that tonight. I have to comment on snowfall totals. Syracuse always has a high snowfall total. Currently they are showing somewhere in the 55 inch range. I was in Syracuse on December 27. It rained all day and there was virtually no snow on the ground, not even at the airport. This seems to be a constant with Syracuse. Every year they report massive amounts of snow and when you go to Syracuse there is very little to be seen on the ground. Sounds fishy to me. I doubt that we (in Holland Patent) have had that much snow (55 inch range), but we have at least a foot on the ground and we never lost our base. I think Syracuse has skewed snowfall totals every year (trying to win the snowiest city event). Just a thought. Seventy-one Bill? Yikes!!!!!!!!!!!! Sixty-one? Yikes!!!!! I hope not.......

    Posted January 5th at 9:29 PM

  95. Mike S (Port Leyden):

    I'd laugh if the totals actually came out of Mexico, NY or something. Sounds fishy that I have at least 2' of snow on the ground, being in the 50"'s.

    Posted January 5th at 9:43 PM

  96. Matt Lanza:

    Randy: You can bet Syracuse's snow totals are skewed. The airport, where the official measurements are taken, is located about 8 miles or so north of Downtown, which makes a HUGE difference in the LES belts. Just think of how much difference 8 miles makes anywhere in CNY! This I think is especially true as the borderline between where you can have a single band of LES and weaker multiple bands occurs around Syracuse. So while the airport can get railed with a single band...it's all the more difficult for the city to get it. Syracuse officially is the snowiest large city in the US I believe, but in theory, it really isn't as snowy as it can claim to be.

    Posted January 5th at 11:59 PM

  97. mike m (binghamton):

    yea just imagine if uticas snowfall totals came from 8 miles north of rome, there woul dprobably be 30-40+ inch difference from what the city of utica actually sees.

    Posted January 6th at 4:06 AM

  98. randy Vitullo:

    Matt, the airport was also green. Figure that one out..... Maybe they do measure it at Mexico, NY.

    Posted January 6th at 6:50 AM

  99. Jules (Ilion):

    Wow....60s 70s....think Spring :)

    Posted January 6th at 7:04 AM

  100. Gary (Schuyler, work in Syracuse):

    I've worked in Syracuse upwards of 15 years now, doing the commute from Schuyler daily. I've mentioned several times on this blog that the snowfall Syracuse officially reports is higher than I actually see there, and I'm roughly 2 miles due west of the airport there. Additionally, they get a lot of fluffy lake effect that when it falls may be 6 inches with the method they use to measure it, but compacts on the ground to 2 inches. One day around 40 degrees and they're down to grass. Also as many know here, they're situated where the warm air moves in quickly as opposed to this area where the hills and valleys retain the cold air longer.

    One instance of overblown Syracuse snow stats that really comes to mind is when I was traveling on company business to Loiusville, KY a few years back and the day I was supposed to travel back to Syracuse the morning national news show touted Syracuse receiving 25 inches of snow during the night. I had envisioned my car buried in snow in the outside airport parking lot when I got back, but to my surprise I had no problem. As a matter of fact, grass was showing in many areas - and that was at the airport!! I think perhaps 6 inches of windblown snow may have fallen.

    Posted January 6th at 10:45 AM

  101. heather(german flatts):

    loving that the temp. keeps rising now were up to 61 for tuesday you can keep rising it I love it heat awsome. I can't wait till spring and summer my national grid bill was 800 for december gimmie some sun and warmth..

    Posted January 6th at 1:12 PM

  102. Mel (Westernville):

    MIke M you are 1% correct. I am 10 miles North of Rome and at the end of last year when Rob & I compared totals I was way above his in Whitesboro. The cutoff for me is right at the Delta Dam - snow really starts to add up when you get North of there. I always wondered about Syracuse's totals also as I travel out there frequently and once past Canastota you tend to start seeing grass even in the middle of winter.

    Posted January 6th at 1:21 PM

  103. Mel (Westernville):

    was supposed to say 100%

    Posted January 6th at 1:23 PM

  104. Rob(whitesboro):

    Snowpack down to 3" here.52 degrees already with upper 50's in WNY.

    Posted January 7th at 11:14 AM

  105. Andy (Forestport):

    Gonna be interesting to see how ight the temp climbs tomorrow...

    Posted January 7th at 11:14 AM

  106. Matt Lanza:

    Not sure how serious a situation this ends up being, but it's worth a mention. There are now Flood Watches up for ice jam flooding on a lot of the tributaries of the Mohawk, through Herkimer, Fulton and Montgomery Counties. Any reports from those areas would be great.

    Posted January 7th at 11:15 AM

  107. Matt (HP):

    This is quite interesting. At 11:15 Rob was at 52 degrees
    The temp was 40 at the airport at 11

    Thats an impressive increase in temp. :-P

    Posted January 7th at 11:22 AM

  108. Matt Lanza:

    Matt: Actually the airport jumped to 50 at 11!

    Posted January 7th at 11:29 AM

  109. Matt Lanza:

    As an aside, I think the record of 60 for today is probably safe, although we'll come close. Tomorrow's record of 59 is all but gone. There are certain weather events you just see coming days in advance and this is why we constantly were advertising temperatures warmer than the models. You don't get this kind of pattern in January and not see something incredible

    Posted January 7th at 11:34 AM

  110. Matt (HP):

    Hmm, sorry about that then something must be messed up online. Cause its saying 39

    Posted January 7th at 11:48 AM

  111. Rick:

    Have a question, with the models, what is the NAM?

    Posted January 7th at 11:54 AM

  112. Matt Lanza:

    Rick: The NAM stands for North American Mesoscale model. It's basically a fairly good resolution computer model that forecasts out 84 hours in time. It has a lot of quirks though and there are some situations we don't particularly trust it in.

    Posted January 7th at 12:00 PM

  113. Bob (Cooperstown):

    Temp. 50 degrees snow pack @3-4" overcast

    Posted January 7th at 12:29 PM

  114. Mel (Westernville):

    42 degrees here as of 12:30. Snowpack down to 10" and some ground fog.

    Posted January 7th at 12:59 PM

  115. Jeff:

    Any systems that bears watching in the near future to replenish our snow pack?

    Posted January 7th at 1:06 PM

  116. Matt Lanza:

    Jeff: We're in full thaw mode right now...maybe...maybe the weekend system or the one early next week delivers us a little snow. And maybe a little lake effect somewhere in there too. But nothing to get us back to where we were last week.

    Posted January 7th at 1:22 PM

  117. Jeff:

    Thank's Matt

    Posted January 7th at 1:43 PM

  118. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    40 degrees here. Still a considerable amount of snow still on the ground, 10-12" inches! Matt, I live less than 1500' feet from the East Canada Creek so I will keep you updated on any problems that develop. I took a glance at it when I went down Main Street this morning, and there is a large amount of ice behind the dam, but nothing is jamming up and obstucting the flow of water to my knowledge. We need to increase the flow of water in order to get any problems here. We have had problems here in the past but nothing within the last 8 years or so. The trouble spots are Van Buren Street, Dolge Ave, and North Main Street. I'm going to take a walk later on and go over and check things out.

    Posted January 7th at 2:34 PM

  119. heather(german flatts):

    matt i will be taking a trip into the village of mohawk shortly and also crossing the river in herkimer where it always floods by south washington st. also my husband will be going to st.johnsville later so i'll let you know asap. hey guys just think this will get the sap running for maple syrup..

    Posted January 7th at 2:41 PM

  120. Rob(whitesboro):

    Was up to 59 about a half hour ago with some sunshine.There was some sign of a possible storm next Monday but the latest Euro just burned us.I'm sick of this weather already.

    Posted January 7th at 3:13 PM

  121. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Just went for a walk and the East Canada Creek is fine with no problems above the dam. Water is pretty shallow (enough to see rocks and the bottom) and 95% ice free. Was in much better shape than I thought it would be! It is going to take alot more snowmelt/ rain to cause any problems here. Temperature is steady at 40 degrees.

    Posted January 7th at 3:25 PM

  122. Matt Lanza:

    According to our in-house model, things should begin to accelerate tonight with a temp drop through 9 PM and then steadily rising temps straight through tomorrow afternoon. I'm a little concerned that we may not get as warm as forecasted by some models due to clouds/fog, but this may end up not being a problem. Studying it now and I'll post more later.

    Posted January 7th at 3:33 PM

  123. Vin:

    Are temps going to get back to normal or below normal in the beginning of next week or are temps going to be all over the place?

    Posted January 7th at 3:49 PM

  124. Jeff:

    Tornado watches out for Ill, Ind.

    Posted January 7th at 3:53 PM

  125. Mel (Westernville):

    Still holding at 42 2degrees here - finally starting to be able to see spots of blacktop on my driveway.

    Posted January 7th at 3:53 PM

  126. mike m ( binghamton):

    was it just me or was the blog broke yesterday...there was no verification symbol on the bottom. anyways snow pack is all but gone here except for deep in the woods where 3-6 inches remains( took a nice hike today) but it will almost certainly be reduced to patches of snow by tomorrow and probably gone with wednesdays rain.

    Posted January 7th at 5:27 PM

  127. Randy Vitullo:

    Heather, how did you achieve an 800 dollar heating bill? We have a 4000 square foot house. Our grid bill is usually less than 200 a month with a max during winter of 350. What the heck are you doing to attain an 800 dollar bill for a month that was maybe a degree or two below normal? On another note, I love heat too. Only in the spring, summer and fall..............

    Posted January 7th at 6:18 PM

  128. Matt Lanza:

    New entry is up. A little something to make both the warm lovers and cold lovers smile together. ;)

    Posted January 7th at 6:44 PM

Add a Comment

Only registered accounts may post comments to the blog. To register a new account or login, select the appropriate link in the header and follow the instructions. (note: all accounts are subject to approval by WKTV.)

↑ Back to Top

Recent Comments on this Entry

Recent Entries

Top 5 Tags