Weather Blog | Friday's Storm: Why It Won't Be Just Snow Anywhere...

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Friday's storm is giving me fits, but after looking at the data today I feel confident in a couple things.

First, I'm about 90% sure this will not be an all snow event for anyone in CNY...from the Adirondacks on down.

Second, this has the potential to be a quick, but hard hitting mess from the Adirondacks down through the Poconos.

I mentioned several days ago that my big concern was ice...not so much because of the track as it was because of the setup. Here's what's at issue.

Temperatures Tonight

Tonight, temps are tumbling. We're in the low 20s at Rome, on our way to at least the mid-teens. We're already in the upper teens south of Utica and in the low to mid teens north of Utica. This is Arctic air. Arctic air is very difficult to erode. I tweaked temps down for Thursday and I'm expecting mid to upper 20s (with teens in the cold spots) for highs.

Then, tomorrow night, even if there is some high cloud cover in the evening, temperatures will free fall even faster than tonight, because winds tomorrow night will be calm. So even though aloft we'll be a bit warmer, at the surface, we could get as cold as we are tonight, before cloud cover moves in after midnight and ends that temp drop.

So you have the basic recipie in place... cold air at the surface. Winds tomorrow night will take on the dreaded easterly component, and even as they strengthen overnight, the temperature rise should be slow.

So the storm moves in and we see snow to begin. Snow will begin to mix with sleet and changeover to either sleet or freezing rain (thinking potentially freezing rain) by late morning or early afternoon.

Here's the issue. We have cold air at the ground...all the way to about 850 mb (5,000 feet up). But you go a little above this, and check out what happens at 1 PM Friday...

Here's a look at the NAM's forecast of 850 mb temperatures. The star indicates Utica. You look north of there and you say "Ahh...below 0...they'll be getting oodles of snow!"

Not so fast....

Here's a look a little above that, at 775 mb temperatures. Notice how the above 0 line goes almost to Watertown and Blue Mountain Lake!

According to the NAM at least, this corresponds with the heaviest precipitation moving in. Should that be the case, there are two ways our situation goes. Either we warm up enough at the ground to get plain rain in the Mohawk Valley. Or, we keep a portion of the cold air locked in and we go over to freezing rain.

No offense to snow lovers out there, but I am rooting for a much warmer outcome to this storm right now. There is a very real chance we end up with an ice storm situation somewhere in CNY. An all-snow event will take a major model shift in the next 24 hours to become reality, and that rarely happens.

I don't want to get too far ahead of myself, but if we do end up with some decent icing in some areas, we'll have to monitor wind potential as well. While this storm won't pack the wind punch like today's storm, there is the potential for decent wind gusts. If we end up icy, that would be a major problem. We'll have to wait and see, so stay tuned.

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mike m( binghamton):

great post matt, good to see those 775mb temps,now i understand the situation better. in order for temps not to rise above o at the 775mb level we'd probably need the parent low to track much further east like over or just east of the Appalachins right?

Posted January 30th at 8:54 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike M: Yeah...we'd need a lot of things to change that I just don't think will. This storm is going to be one big mess I think.

Posted January 30th at 9:14 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

i hope we manage to get some decent front end snow at least, then some mixing then maybe another few inches in the wrap around, that would be fine with me.

Posted January 30th at 9:36 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

The NAM definetly looks warmer.If any cold air gets trapped in the valley it looks we'll be spinning our wheels.Good shot of snow though on the back side...I hope?

Posted January 30th at 9:36 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I don't know Mike...It sort of looks like frz rain right from the start now.I'm not sure on boundry temps..but you know the valleys will be cold.

Posted January 30th at 9:47 PM
Matt Lanza:

Latest NAM really honing in on a couple things.

First: A big ole dry slot. This could really screw things up if it moves in. The second thing is the back end precip...very strong. BUT...this would likely be rain, changing to some snow. Could see some sort of squall line potential with this...whether or not it's this far north remains to be seen, but worth watching.

Posted January 30th at 10:25 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

19.2 degrees here. Quick note, this morning at about 8:30 my temperature was only at 32.6 degrees. So whatever fell after 3am was more than likely freezing. Unless of course the cold coming off the snowpack was messing with my thermometer. I estimated between 0.15" and 0.20" inch of ice build up occured through this morning. Shockingly, we still have a good snowpack that was not even touched by the FZR rain.

Posted January 30th at 10:46 PM
Donnie (Milford):

Seems we're not getting the snow amount we should be getting this time of year. I hear forecasts from NWS for FRZ and rain off and on thru next week. Not that I want snow, but the up and down with the temps I think is making people sicker than usual. Then you see the mid west and west getting hammered with real winter like we used to get. What's going on?? Global warming??

Posted January 30th at 10:55 PM
Matt Lanza:

Donnie: Nope, this isn't global warming...this is a La Nina winter. Warmer than normal. We haven't cashed in on lake snows like I hoped we would, so snow is below normal. La Nina winters typically have stronger late Februaries and early Marches, so we'll see what happens, but the La Nina isn't giving up...going strong.

Posted January 30th at 11:02 PM
Bill Kardas:

I agree with Matt's assessment so far. Matt and I worked together yesterday and were amazed how difficult it was to scour out the cold air in the Mohawk Valley. Friday's event has something that many of our 'almost ice' events didn't have...a strong high to the north and east.

Posted January 30th at 11:04 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

What I find intriguing about Thursday night/Friday is that NWS's point forecast for town has us at 14 degrees for a low Thursday night and 31 degrees for a high Friday. Friday night they have us down to 19 degrees. This worries me in that freezing rain could and likely would be a major problem for the Mohawk Valley and points north and east as the forecasted east wind would lock in sub freezing temps at the ground. When we have that east wind, it is extremely difficult to scour out this cold air especially when you have a good snowpack on the ground like us and points northeast and northwest do. Look at last night with a southwesterly wind the trouble we had getting above 32. The other problem is that with a low temp of 19 Friday night, another flash freeze could be possible? At this point since snow is basically out of the picture for the whole event, the next best situation would be for a prolonged period of sleet. This storm looks nasty and could have a lot of tricks up its sleeve between now and Friday.

Posted January 30th at 11:05 PM
Bob Jones:

Global warming? Why do people use that term so liberally? Just because something changes or is unusual doesn't mean it's global warming. It's weather! It's supposed to change and be strange!

Posted January 30th at 11:06 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I'm with you guys.If we don't get into this dry slot we are in for a significant ice storm here in the valley.Even with the dry slot we would pick up 1/4" or slightly more of ice.

Posted January 30th at 11:11 PM
Matt Lanza:

Got another look at the NAM and it's very interesting in that it warms us up considerably now and makes rain the predominate precipitation type. This will be a different scenario than the one that locked in the cold air yesterday. While it will still be difficult to scour it out, I think it'll be easier than it was yesterday. Still, it will be a pain to forecast. I think part of the reason temps are warmer on the NAM is the dry slot...and the lack of evaporative or dynamic cooling, as the precip will come in waves. We'll see.

Posted January 30th at 11:16 PM
Matt Lanza:

After digesting the 00Z data...this is NOT our forecast, but a few thoughts....

Precip moves in between 5 and 8 AM Friday. It will quickly go from flurries to heavy snow/sleet. Precip will change over to freezing rain and/or sleet late in the morning and early afternoon, but it will taper off after Noon as dry slot works in. Things stay quiet through late afternoon, before round 2 moves around or after sunset. This will either fall as rain and sleet or rain/sleet changing to heavy wet snow. If the NAM is right, don't expect too much accumulation. But we should see at least some accumulation by Midnight.

Needless to say, this might be useless by the time we wake up tomorrow morning, but those are my thoughts for now.

Posted January 31st at 1:21 AM
Sarah:

How are things looking this morning? I caught a little bit of the forecast this morning, but not all. It sounded as if precip would not move in until mid-late morning. Thoughts?

Posted January 31st at 8:34 AM
Tim (Dolgeville):

Matt:
You mentioned that this has been a mild winter, but I have been looking through average temps per month and comparing them to last year and we seem to be having a colder winter than last years. Was last years winter even more so mild? Also looks like it is going to be a mess for the morning commute.

Posted January 31st at 8:42 AM
Andrea (Utica):

Are any of these conditions subject to change to enable more of a mainly snow event? Or is that beyond the realm of wishful thinking?

Posted January 31st at 8:45 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Since it definately appears that we are going to get little snow out of this storm, I want temps above 32 degrees!!! I do not want to deal with the nasty ice situation that it appears is coming. Esp considering the little valley I live in we are allmost always 2-3 degrees cooler then the surrounding. Thanks for the updates Matt!

Posted January 31st at 9:18 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

It's been snowing lightly here this morning.Looks like LES off Oneida Lake per WSYR.

Posted January 31st at 9:20 AM
Matt Lanza:

Sarah: Looks like a little earlier than that right now. We'll fine tune and have more on that tonight. We're going a couple hours ahead of the model's start time because we see that happen very often.

Time: You bet. This winter has been much more tepid than last winter was. Last year at this time, we had 34.0" of snow too. This year we have about 50". The difference is that last winter will go down as a "good" one because of the late season comeback.

Andrea: Not really. It's too late in the game for this to become a mainly snow event. Some snow to a mix and then probably rain. Again though, I'm almost certain there's going to be a decent sized lull in this storm around or after midday.

Rob: Neat little feature this morning. It's not as impressive as Finger Lake snow would be, but it's basically the same setup, except on a west wind.

Posted January 31st at 10:04 AM
Jeff:

Matt,
Have you had a chance to look at the next couple of weeks to see if we will be able to pull some of that cold air down here?
And to have winter return around here

Posted January 31st at 10:04 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

In my opinion I think we might see a snowstorm next week somewheres in the east.Nothing on the models but the pattern would definetly support one.After that the NAO takes off on us.

Posted January 31st at 10:41 AM
DT:

After tomorrows now cast and Tuesdays meltdown we will resume to a more normal pattern.

Posted January 31st at 10:55 AM
B (Herkimer):

Rob, forgive my ignorance, what do you mean by "the NAO takes off on us."
Thanks

Posted January 31st at 11:36 AM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: As for the long range.... there is the potential that we get some cold in here around the 10th or so... looks like the PNA (Pacific blocking) becomes favorable for a short time. But, the NAO stays positive (B... that's blocking in the Atlantic...a positive NAO means no blocking, so cold shots likely aren't going to stay for more than a day or two). But, all along, the AO is raging positive....Arctic Oscillation. Meaningful cold does not seem likely through Feb 15. We should stay a few degrees above normal heading into mid-month. Lake snow threats are minimal and unlikely through the 15th, with the exception of maybe that Feb 10th brief shot of cool weather. Widespread synoptic snow threats are possible, but probably nothing meaningful. GFS ensembles appear to be latching on to a number of weaker storms...but they're coming right from the mild Pacific...so rain/snow mix seems to be the best bet this far out. We'll see how things go. With the La Nina raging, we won't be seeing anything drastically different than we've seen in January.

Remember though, climatologically, late Feb/March in La Nina years is below normal, so the chance of another late season rebound in the snow department is possible. We'll see.

Regarding tomorrow's storm... still looking like an icy mess right now for the morning. Snow and sleet in the Adirondacks. There will be very little snow at the onset of this storm. We'll have a mid to late afternoon lull, followed by a shot of heavy precip after sunset. Unfortunately this looks like rain, maybe ending as some wet snow. All in all, accumulation wise, I'm not very excited for much more than ice. I'd bank on some significant problems tomorrow morning, with improving road conditions by evening.

Posted January 31st at 11:47 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

That basically means conditions are non favorable for an eastcoast snowstorm.Actually theres alot more to it than that but that's what I use it for.

Posted January 31st at 11:48 AM
Matt Lanza:

Just to clarify on timing... we will likely stay dry through at least 7 AM, but probably through 9 AM. But conditions will likely deteriorate rapidly after Noon.

Posted January 31st at 12:02 PM
Ken (S.Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

what are the chances we see ice storm warning when the watches are upgraded....also what are you thinking in terms of ice accumulation.

Posted January 31st at 12:26 PM
DCG:

So we're looking at easy commute during school bussing hours??
I think that may be a tough call as some school bus routes start
before 7:00am others start later.
Matt, do school officials ever call you directly to find out
about forcast timing etc.??

Posted January 31st at 12:27 PM
Tim (Dolgeville):

Matt:
I think you got confused by what I posted earlier. You stated that the winter has been warmer than normal, yet when I compare stats from last year on a month by month basis we are having a colder winter by average than last winter. The data I am taking from wktv's site. I understand we may have some warm up's here and there but overall we have been colder. Was last winter that MUCH WARMER than normal?

So what you are saying is the morning commute will not be that bad afterall?

Thanks

Posted January 31st at 12:54 PM
Jeff:

Matt,
Thank you

Posted January 31st at 1:00 PM
Matt Lanza:

Ken: Very low. NWS doesn't pull the trigger on Ice Storm Warnings easily at all. They need to have superior high confidence, and frankly that doesn't exist right now.

DCG: At this point, yes. I will examine things later, but given everything I've looked at this morning and heard from Adam, we're looking at a post-7 AM start...closer to 9 AM or even a little later. Sometimes they call us, but it's very rare.

Tim: No I know what you said...I probably just went of on a tangent :). Thanks mostly to December, the first half of this winter has been, yes, much colder than the first half of last winter. Last winter was very warm if I recall correctly, especially compared to normal through about Feb 1. This winter has been only a wee bit warm, and the first part was extremely cold.

Posted January 31st at 1:02 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The storm for Friday is going to be dreadful. It's looking to me that areas north and east of the Mohawk Valley. (Areas of the Tug and Adirondacks) could see at least a half inch of ice. I hope that is not the case. The power grid could be in big trouble. (especially if we get any winds at all) It looks like the best we can hope for is a lot of sleet. I will take sleet of freezing rain anyday.

Posted January 31st at 1:27 PM
NGB:

Have to leave for Rochester Friday afternoon about 3:30. What should things look like then? What about heading west on the Thruway - all rain?

Posted January 31st at 2:16 PM
Sue (Marcy):

Thanks for the great info on the upcoming weather events. Are we expecting the wind that has been with us to continue into Friday and the weekend?

Posted January 31st at 2:27 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

WINTER STORM WARNINGS now in effect for Herkimer, Hamilton, Fulton, and Montgomery counties. 1/2"-3/4" of an inch of ice are possible with the highest amounts at elevations above 1500 feet. Looks like National Grid crews will be busy once again. Erie county still has over 2,000 people without power.

Posted January 31st at 2:42 PM
Truthsayer:

Hey whatever wktv did with the website very nice .. MUCH faster ... nice job guys ... anyways as for the weather i think its funny that the people posting give better information than matt lanza and post warnings up ...

Posted January 31st at 3:01 PM
Lisa:

So hopefully the morning 8:00am commute will be ok for driving in Utica area and its looking like the afternoon 4:30 commute should be ok as well?

Posted January 31st at 3:02 PM
Matt Lanza:

Truthsayer...I'm sorry did you miss the dozens of posts I normally put up? Sorry I can't be on here 24/7 for you.

Lisa: The 8 AM commute will be ok..and if luck works our way, so will the evening commute. North and east of Utica will be another story entirely. Working on the forecast and a map obviously. More coming.

Posted January 31st at 3:22 PM
Chris:

Any chance we won't get ice?

Posted January 31st at 3:22 PM
Matt Lanza:

Chris: Everyone should see at least some ice. From Utica south though, the ice may only be a nuisance and not a big deal, other than some minor travel inconveniences.

Posted January 31st at 3:24 PM
Chris:

Thanks Matt. My last question: do you think it is possible this event won't produce widespread treachurous conditions?

Posted January 31st at 3:29 PM
Matt Lanza:

Chris: This will be a good sized storm...not the biggest we've seen, but for the Adirondacks, this will be significant. South of the Mohawk Valley, this may end up being a snoozer.

Posted January 31st at 3:30 PM
DCG - Rome:

So it still looks as though everyone will get to school/work o.k.??
I'm more concerned about kids waiting for busses/driving on busses
and teenagers driving to school. It'll be interesting to see how the school officials decide on this one. So many different start times & bussing schedules.

Posted January 31st at 3:40 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY

...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY. FREEZING RAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE HALF INCH.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL-HAZARDS OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...OR VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/BINGHAMTON.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW OR ICE AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

Posted January 31st at 3:46 PM
DCG - Rome:

Matt, By the way, what are we looking at for Rome?
I know sometimes we can be right
on the cusp of things.

Posted January 31st at 3:50 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Now I am a bit concerned (confused) about why the NOAA put out WSWarnings in the adirondacks and in the Northern and Central Portions of PA. We are sandwiched in between. Even with the Warning in PA states that the Southern Part of the state MAY turn to to Rain with the Northern areas staying sleet and freezing rain.

Posted January 31st at 4:01 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

PS Still very chilly down here sitting at 25 degrees.

Posted January 31st at 4:04 PM
Andy Forestport:

I wish it were April showers bringing May flowers, I think it is fair to say that the second half of winter is going to be toast....

Posted January 31st at 4:11 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Looks like the NOAA is thinking not much on the above freezing side of things. Here is a little of the discussion:

THINKING WE WILL START OFF AS SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING.
A WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL SPEED THROUGH THE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
FLOW, PUSHING A ZR/R/IP MIXTURE PAST AVP AND TOWARD ELM AND BGM BY
MID MORNING. THIS MIX WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES BY MID
AFTERNOON, WHILE THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL HOLD ONTO
MAINLY SNOW. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
OVER THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND POSSIBLY EASTERN MADISON COUNTY.

It also states that the mix will be there but a change over to rain only in the far SE portions of the Forecast Area.

Posted January 31st at 4:31 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Jeff that statement was based on lastnights data.The warning in N. Oneida is based on an easterly flow.You would think they would issue one for the valley if that was the case.

Posted January 31st at 4:44 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Matt does an easterly wind lock in cold air for N. Oneida??

Posted January 31st at 4:48 PM
Matt Lanza:

Warnings were issued in PA because criteria for snow and ice are less than they are here. Most areas up here will not hit the 1/2" ice required for a warning, but NWS had to pull the trigger on N Oneida anyway. I don't have time to get into things right now. Here is the VERY basic map. At 5:30 tonight on NC 2, I will be breaking this thing down region by region, so you'll want to tune in to that. I will post a video clip of that online after 6:30 if you cannot tune in.

Posted January 31st at 4:57 PM
Trista (Fly creek Valley):

Seems like a another doozer for our area. What should we expect down here near cooperstown. South of rt 20?

Posted January 31st at 5:25 PM
Kevin (whitesboro):

Trista: Looks to be plain rain pretty much the whole storm for you.

Posted January 31st at 5:30 PM
Matt Lanza:

Kevin/Trista: That area holds on to cold a little longer than the rest of us, so I would not rule out some decent ice down your way. Watch the video when I put it up later for more details.

Posted January 31st at 5:40 PM
Andy Forestport:

Matt

Quite the map on the news, this storm must be a pain in the neck to forecast.

Posted January 31st at 5:52 PM
Matt Lanza:

Andy: Not fun at all! I'll take 2 feet of snow over 1/4" ice any day.

I will be updating the static map online a bit later as well. I just didn't have time to do it before the news.

Posted January 31st at 5:55 PM
Matt Lanza:

Here's the map in more specific form. I apologize if the text is smaller than normal, but that was the only way to fit the information on one map without creating 5 separate ones.

Posted January 31st at 6:10 PM
Matt Lanza:

Video's up now on the wktv.com homepage. I am doing a cub scout tour and then I'll update the discussion.

Posted January 31st at 6:36 PM
Brad (Oneonta):

I am not quite sure why some of you people give Matt Lanza such a hard time. He puts in alot of hours to give everyone the data that he is reading. Weather is not 100%predictable so get over yourself and lay off the guy. This is just a blog. His job is to give the determine forecasts for TV and not sit behind a computer all day long typing in here. You are fortunate enough to even have this tool and I think he does an excellent job keeping this thing updated.

Posted January 31st at 7:20 PM
Donnie (Milford):

Brad. Thanks for giving those guys (such as Truthsayer) a piece of your mind!! I agree with you 100%. Matt is a great meteorologist and spends much more time with this blog than I'm sure is expected of him. He's not anyone's personal servant, as some of those guys would make him out to be.

Matt.. Just continue with your excellent reports, postings and replys, as you do. These "hecklers" aren't appreciative of you and don't deserve your time. You have a very nice way of speaking in here and on TV, so that people like me can understand what you mean. Keep up the great work!!

Posted January 31st at 7:57 PM
Tony P. (east utica):

Just wondering if this storm will cause schools to close in anticipation of ice problems? Looks like the worst will hit AFTER kids are already in school, this could be a dangerous situation. ICE DAY????

Posted January 31st at 7:59 PM
dcg - rome:

That's what I'm wondering.
Maybe just a delay???

Posted January 31st at 8:21 PM
sleighldy:

Sounds like a tricky forcast for the area...looks like we'll just have to wait and see what really happens...as for school closings...I certainly hope those w/the powers that be...look very carefully at not WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE CURRENT MOMENT...BUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN LATER IN THE DAY...we just might get the kids to school okay...but how about getting them home safely??? Besides...the last thing everyone needs is to be worrying about school buses on those nasty roads..Hopefully they will heed the warnings and close..Most of the area schools haven't even used 1 DAY YET!!

Posted January 31st at 8:25 PM
Matt Lanza:

Thanks for the props guys! New entry up.

Posted January 31st at 8:30 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The temperature here is 7. with the temp this low already, it looks like were in for significant ice. I hope don't get over a half inch. That would be dreadful. At lease it will not stick around like the Great Ice Storm of 1998 or the 2003 ice storm did. the ice storm of 1998 was in a strong El Nio year.

Posted January 31st at 9:52 PM
Kelly Steele:

Thanks for you do to keep all of us in central New York Safe!!!!!!!!

Posted February 1st at 11:43 AM

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