Everything Except for the Kitchen Sink
Posted February 24th, 2013 by Jill Reale. 40 comments
The snowpack took a beating this weekend thanks to temperatures in the upper 30s and rain Saturday afternoon. There are several opportunities this week for some snow, starting late Tuesday into Wednesday. Outside of a few snow showers Monday morning, the weather starts off quiet this week with something we have not seen in several days, the sun. The lack of sunshine makes it feel more like November than end of February.
Potential Storm Tuesday Night into Wednesday
As many of you know, the models have not been the best this year in dealing with storm systems several days out. This case is not out of the ordinary. We are about 48 hours out before the low pressure system begins to impact Central NY and there still are a lot of question marks.
Both the GFS and NAM take a westerly track, or what we call, a western runner, bringing the low to the west of Central NY. When this happens, we are on the warm side of the storm, with a greater potential for mixed precipitation changing over to rain. The Euro has been steady with developing a coastal low that would bring wrap around cold temperatures and snow. When will we know the track? We will be keeping an eye on the development of the low pressure system tomorrow and should have a better idea of a track based on how the storm forms by Monday night into Tuesday morning. Regardless of the track, precipitation looks to be between 0.5”-1.5” of liquid.
If the precipitation arrives Tuesday night, temperatures will be at or below the freezing mark to start out, creating a better chance for snow or freezing rain, with potential ice accumulation. Once a southwesterly flow brings in warmer air to the surface, it will change the precipitation to rain before the cold front. If the precipitation has a hard time moving in due to dry air and low dew points, it will allow the surface to warm up into the upper 30s, making the precipitation mainly rain. One thing to point out, winds a loft are quite strong, creating lift, which cools the temperatures, making for a better chance for snow/sleet.
Hopefully we will have a better handle on the situation as we get closer to Tuesday Night/Wednesday. Stay tuned!
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