Everything Except for the Kitchen Sink

Posted February 24th, 2013 by Jill Reale. 40 comments

The snowpack took a beating this weekend thanks to temperatures in the upper 30s and rain Saturday afternoon. There are several opportunities this week for some snow, starting late Tuesday into Wednesday. Outside of a few snow showers Monday morning, the weather starts off quiet this week with something we have not seen in several days, the sun. The lack of sunshine makes it feel more like November than end of February.

Potential Storm Tuesday Night into Wednesday

As many of you know, the models have not been the best this year in dealing with storm systems several days out. This case is not out of the ordinary. We are about 48 hours out before the low pressure system begins to impact Central NY and there still are a lot of question marks.

Track

Both the GFS and NAM take a westerly track, or what we call, a western runner, bringing the low to the west of Central NY. When this happens, we are on the warm side of the storm, with a greater potential for mixed precipitation changing over to rain. The Euro has been steady with developing a coastal low that would bring wrap around cold temperatures and snow. When will we know the track? We will be keeping an eye on the development of the low pressure system tomorrow and should have a better idea of a track based on how the storm forms by Monday night into Tuesday morning. Regardless of the track, precipitation looks to be between 0.5”-1.5” of liquid.

Timing

If the precipitation arrives Tuesday night, temperatures will be at or below the freezing mark to start out, creating a better chance for snow or freezing rain, with potential ice accumulation. Once  a southwesterly flow brings in warmer air to the surface, it will change the precipitation to rain before the cold front.  If the precipitation has a hard time moving in due to dry air and low dew points, it will allow the surface to warm up into the upper 30s, making the precipitation mainly rain. One thing to point out, winds a loft are quite strong, creating lift, which cools the temperatures, making for a better chance for snow/sleet.

Hopefully we will have a better handle on the situation as we get closer to Tuesday Night/Wednesday. Stay tuned!

Tags:

Add a Comment

Comments

  1. Chris (HP CoCoRahs) (Holland Patent):

    Seasonal totals now at 90 inches. We had a busy week with lake effect and Saturdays slop. Looks to be another busy week weather it’s rain or snow or both. Watch n c

    Posted February 24th at 10:10 PM

  2. Rob (Whitesboro):

    NAM model still looks nasty with 3/4” of ice. HPC is going with the Euro model.

    Posted February 24th at 10:11 PM

  3. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Seasonal Total: 70.8 inches

    Posted February 24th at 10:32 PM

  4. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Season total now at 101.9”. Had .4” today. 14.4” for the week.

    Posted February 24th at 10:34 PM

  5. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Seasonal total is actually 103.4”. I forgot to add in the 1.5” of snow I got yesterday

    Posted February 24th at 10:39 PM

  6. mike w (HERKIMER):

    Euro not backing down, still much colder then the gfs..Over and inch of precip for kuca..

    Posted February 25th at 1:58 AM

  7. Denys (East Winfield):

    27 degrees, light snow and fog. .8” of new snow since yesterday morning.

    Posted February 25th at 4:55 AM

  8. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    28 degrees, calm, overcast, a little fog, 0.1” of new snow last night.

    Posted February 25th at 4:57 AM

  9. Bill Rockhill (Woodgate):

    Good morning from the north country it’s a balmy 25 degrees ….snowing lightly….very little wind…Bear Creek Road , Woodgate, New York….have a great day..

    Posted February 25th at 5:15 AM

  10. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Two quiet days of weather to enjoy before the next storm rolls in. It’s disheartening to see yet another major split in the computer models less than 48 hours out. I know a lot of you are itching for a big snowstorm, but as a forecaster I can’t justify biting on the Euro if it’s at odds against the NAM and GFS. The Euro is a better model, but give credit where credit is due – the GFS picked up on this scenario last week. Hopefully the 12z solutions shed more light on the situation.

    Posted February 25th at 5:29 AM

  11. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    HPC pushing potential of icing – makes sense if the GFS is right.

    Posted February 25th at 5:51 AM

  12. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Im excited to see 12z..for sure….

    Posted February 25th at 7:40 AM

  13. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Me too. Euro has support form the UK/Canadian also. What ever happens it’s going to be a major winter storm with the east wind involved.

    Posted February 25th at 8:13 AM

  14. Rob (Whitesboro):

    NAM looks a little colder but the GFS is still warm. Lots of downsloping too. Models over did that last time though.

    Posted February 25th at 11:14 AM

  15. Rob (Whitesboro):

    NAM looks a little colder but the GFS is still warm. Lots of downsloping too. Models over did that last time though.

    Posted February 25th at 11:14 AM

  16. Mel (Westernville):

    Little late but 104.7” for my seasonal snowfall.

    Posted February 25th at 11:24 AM

  17. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    More mixed data coming in – but there’s a bit more light shed upon the situation. The NAM and GFS are bent on keeping the western runner – so the Euro looks to be the outlier on the storm track. However, both NAM and GFS models are showing a weak secondary low forming along the Appalachians – enough to suppress the flow of warm air aloft. It is still warm enough to mix sleet with snow…no way to tell what the ratios would be at this point with any confidence – anyone claiming they know how much snow is going to fall in our area with this storm is jumping the gun.

    Some food for thought – most storms – secondary or primary – do not track right along the mountain spine.

    Posted February 25th at 11:38 AM

  18. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Please do not post information about other weather outlets aside from the NWS – we have found in the past that it confuses folks that are reading the blog.

    Posted February 25th at 11:39 AM

  19. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    12z runs really backed off on QPF for KRME – 0.4” on NAM, 0.3” on GFS on front end precip through 7am Wednesday.

    Posted February 25th at 12:18 PM

  20. CJ (Little Falls):

    Any new developments on tomorrow evening’s storm?

    Posted February 25th at 3:31 PM

  21. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Is it just me or is the NAM really wet????

    Is it sleet bumping the numbers? I hope so, because snow or Freezing Rain at even half the amount of qpf its showing for me will be quite troublesome. Especially with the temps not showing much more then a max of 34 degrees.

    Posted February 25th at 4:27 PM

  22. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    18z NAM Backed of in downsloping quite a bit…so thats some good news :)

    Posted February 25th at 4:45 PM

  23. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I like 3-6” on the front end and 3-6” on the back. This is a long drawn out event. Starts tomorrow evening and lasts about 48 hours.

    Posted February 25th at 5:20 PM

  24. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Rob,

    From my past experiences these long events tend to overachieve …especially on hilltops when temp is borderline

    Posted February 25th at 5:30 PM

  25. Adam Musyt:

    Little change to the overall thinking. Much will hinge on how quickly the secondary storm develops and how deep it gets and precisely where it tracks.

    Model forecast soundings basically are exactly at zero degrees at some point aloft right on through Tuesday Night. We may have a situation where we see a burst of snow during the heavier precipitation as the entire column of air cools just below freezing…with a better chance of ice pellets or even some freezing rain or drizzle mixing in during times when the precipitation is lighter in intensity.

    The whole thing still looks very marginal but the basic spirit of the forecast hasn’t changed since this morning. We’ll continue to monitor the latest trends.

    Posted February 25th at 5:33 PM

  26. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    this definitely looks like a tricky forcasting situation for the whole event!

    Posted February 25th at 5:57 PM

  27. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    35 degrees & a brief shot of sunshine is enough to chop off another 1” of snow in my yard. Grassy spots are poking through yet again. Pretty soon our average temperatures will be pushing 40

    Posted February 25th at 6:00 PM

  28. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Wasn’t the storm in 2010 or 11 in March similiar to this but stronger? I remember the forecast calling for Mixed to Rain and it stayed snow the whole time and up my way we were well over 20”, I don’t remember if it was a western runner like this one….just remember the surprise when I woke up.

    Posted February 25th at 8:23 PM

  29. Adam Musyt:

    Jeff – The synoptic setup was a bit different in the Mar 6-7, 2011 case. A well defined strong cold front and associated trough approaching from the Upper Midwest became negatively tilted and spun up a surface low that rapidly intensified as it moved up the I-95 corridor.

    In this week’s case, there are some questions as to the intensity and track of the secondary low, but we don’t see anything like the explosive development like the setup two years ago.

    Posted February 25th at 8:43 PM

  30. Adam Musyt:

    In case you’re interested, a look at the reanalysis of Mar 6, 2011.

    Posted February 25th at 8:45 PM

  31. Adam Musyt:

    And here is Mar 7.

    Posted February 25th at 8:46 PM

  32. Rob (Whitesboro):

    NAM still has the warm nose. It doesn’t really get in here though untill the heaviest precip is over with.

    Posted February 25th at 9:34 PM

  33. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Adam,

    I am pretty sure that Jeff is referring to February 25-26, 2010. That storm was very elevation dependant especially on the 25th. The March 2011 storm P-type was not a question. Just my two cents (had to peak back at my records, I’ve got some pretty awesome photos from the Feb 2010 storm).

    Posted February 25th at 9:37 PM

  34. Adam Musyt:

    33 – Not sure. But the ’11 storm actually started out as rain on Mar 6th before the cold front swung through.

    Posted February 25th at 9:46 PM

  35. mike w (HERKIMER):

    Feb 2010 storm (aka snowicane) dumped over 20” in nyc..I also saw around 20” Pretty sure that storm retrograded in..The march storm was forecast to be mostly rain if i remember correctly..

    Posted February 25th at 10:23 PM

  36. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    I am not sure…I will look at it after I get out of work to verify which storm I was thinking. Am I mistaken with the QPF for this storm. Even the NAM is showing still showing 1” close to the area but not quite here.

    Posted February 25th at 10:46 PM

  37. Adam Musyt:

    36 – NAM QPF has come down some. In fact the 00z shows just a tad over a half inch of liquid equivalent by Wednesday morning at 7 AM. There’s some additional light precipitation during the day Wednesday but they may very well fall as some drizzle in the lower elevations, especially from late morning on.

    GFS is showing about a half inch of liquid by Wednesday at 7 AM and an additional tenth during the day when surface temperatures are likely to be above freezing.

    Posted February 25th at 11:07 PM

  38. Rob (Whitesboro):

    GFS is cold enough for snow at the height of the storm too. Just can’t trust the ratios though in this type of set-up. If we can stay away from that grainy snow we’ll do decent.

    Posted February 25th at 11:21 PM

  39. Adam Musyt:

    Rob – Take a look at the 00z GFS Forecast sounding for 6z (1 AM) Wednesday.


    That looks like a sleet sounding. From 800 to 880 mbar the column of air is progged to be above freezing for almost a kilometer aloft in the vertical. So that begs the question, does the dynamic cooling shift the entire column a few degrees cooler? If it does then it’s a heavy wet snow. If not, then the ratio is not going to be 10:1.

    Posted February 25th at 11:39 PM

  40. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah it’s too close for comfort. Seems very strange BGM didn’t include us in their Advisory.

    Posted February 25th at 11:50 PM

Add a Comment

Only registered accounts may post comments to the blog. To register a new account or login, select the appropriate link in the header and follow the instructions. (note: all accounts are subject to approval by WKTV.)

↑ Back to Top

Recent Comments on this Entry

Recent Entries

Top 5 Tags