Weather Blog | Blame Canada for the early spring...

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The weather for March has been unbelievably mild and unusually sunny. This change has been even more dramatic thanks to our cool, cloudy, wet February. So far this month, every day has been above freezing, with an average temperature about 5 degrees above normal. Sunshine as also been above average, with 8 days of partly to mostly sunny skies. We only had three of these days for all of February.

High pressure parked over the northeast has been responsible for the sunshine and dry weather this month. More importantly, the higher angle of the sun combined with the warming temeperatures are key to keeping us sunny. If this same weather pattern was here in December, lake clouds would have likely limited our chances for sunshine.

Moving forward, there's little hope for winter lovers here over the next seven days. The next weather maker will bring rain to the area this weekend. Most of Saturday looks to stay dry but cloudy. It's possible that a few renegade sprinkles could show up at any point on Saturday, but the steady rain won't arrive until Saturday night.

The winds will pick up quite a bit over the next few days as well. The east wind will start out today between 6-12mph this morning, increasing to 10-20mph tonight. By tomorrow, that would could be sustained as high as 25mph with gusts over 35mph possible.

Any flooding concerns will stay south, as the lions share of the precipitation will fall in southern PA/NJ/NYC. We don't expect more than 0.5" of rain at most with this upcoming event.

The weather patterns will switch back to dry, sunny, but still mild. Despite the northwesterly breeze next week, temperatures will likely stay in the 50s! The lack of cold air in Canada is having a significant impact on our weather.

Canada has been warm most of the winter. According to Environment Canada, the average temperature nationally was 4°C above normal (very significant!). In fact, this is the warmest winter on record for Canada looking on a national scale (records go back to 1948). Combine this with below normal precipitation, and there's not anywhere near as much snow cover on the ground than should be for this time of year. Canada's cold weather is needed in order to maintain winter here in Central New York in March. With the lack of significant cold, the rest of March will likely stay mild and finish well above normal here in Central New York. Our El Nino records suggested this was a strong possibility. Every El Nino year saw below normal snowfall in March, and there's a very good chance this will happen again this year (see our winter outlook for the complete discussion).

While Canada was the warmest on record, here in the US it was a very different story. The majority of the US was cold this winter. About 63% of the country experienced below normal temperatures (NOAA). You can read more about this article here.

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fairfield:

this must be due to global warming, i mean global cooling, no, climate change…...what will they call it now ?!!! :)

Posted March 12th at 9:02 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Fairfield,

I know that question isn’t meant to be answered :). Still, just to put this out there….it’s actually neither. We’re looking at short term patterns here, and that doesn’t qualify as climate change.

Posted March 12th at 10:37 AM
MG(Point Rock):

A couple of the NWS discussions today mention the relationship between dewpoint and snowmelt. Can anyone explain that? I understand why wind can speed up snowmelt, but I’m not sure why a higher dewpoint would.

Posted March 12th at 12:13 PM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

MG,

I know it has to do with latent heat release, but I’m not sure if this explanation is correct. Latent heat is when energy is being released or consumed during a phase change. A warm airmass cools as it passing over a cold snowpack. When the air temperature reaches the dew point, the water in the air will condense, creating dew. Condensation will occur on the snowack. As this condensation takes place, energy is being released as water vapor turns into liquid water. This energy enhances snowmelt.

So, for example, if the air temperature is 50 degrees, with a dewpoint of 45, as it moves over the snow, the temperature will cool off. Once the temperature reaches 45 degrees, if it continues to cool the water in the air will condense onto the snowpack. As this condensation takes place, energy is released causing the snow to melt faster.

If the air temperature was 50 degrees, and the dewpoint was 20, the air still cools off as it passes over the snow, but no condensation takes place, and no latent heat energy is released.

Posted March 12th at 12:54 PM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

I also believe higher dew point does more damage to the snowpack than rainfall.

Posted March 12th at 12:55 PM
MG(Point Rock):

Thanks, Bill.
So I guess it would make a bigger difference when the dewpoint rises to over 32 degrees, which is presumably the temperature of the melting snowpack.

Posted March 12th at 1:18 PM
randy Vitullo :

For sublimation to occur, which is common during this time of year as snow banks disappear without leaving any trace of water, dry air is needed with a warm sun. Sublimation, for those that have forgotten, is a solid (snow, ice) changing directly to a gas, by passing the liquid state. Sublimation of snow banks is amazing. They shrink by 1/2 or more each day. No signs of melting (water running down the street) because they haven’t melted; they have sublimated.

Posted March 12th at 1:56 PM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Randy,

Absolutely. In order for that to happen, the air has to be quite dry. This happens even when temperatures are below freezing (seen on very dry, very cold days immediately after a snowfall).

Posted March 12th at 2:53 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

I don’t know if this is completely right. However, the way I see it , the higher absolute humidity would greatly increase the warming effect of the air because of the increased absorption of long wave radiation which would enhance melting.

Posted March 12th at 3:34 PM
nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

Winter Storm Watches now posted for elevations above 1500’ in the Catskills and Adirondacks including Otsego County

Posted March 12th at 4:32 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

They’re afraid upsloping could cause enough vertical lift to cool temps enough for a mixture of snow and freezing rain in the Berkshires , Catskills, and Adirondacks.

Posted March 12th at 4:58 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Getting a few sprinkles.

Posted March 12th at 5:02 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Looks like we might miss out on the brunt of the rain with this storm. The NAM has been shadowing out our area with just some light rain. That’s a good thing, because the Oriskany creek over this way is very high.

Posted March 12th at 10:12 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

The East Canada Creek is below normal for this time of year. Very little water is going over the dam and a channel has broke through any remaining ice all the way to the hydro plant. We really lucked out in that this has been a slow melt with no rain (so far). Thankfully we wont have to worry about another ice jam mess like back in January.

Posted March 12th at 11:13 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Long range is looking interesting. There’s signs of a pattern change. Canada’s mild spell looks to be coming to an end…and ours too. Winter could be making a return.

Posted March 13th at 12:20 AM
Clifford (Garrattsville, Otsego):

Looks like there are some major changes to the forecast. Snow and freezing rain now forecast for Otsego county with winter weather advisories posted along with flood watches. Calling for ice and snow accumulations tonight. I dont like this one bit ! How can we from an all week forecast rain event to this crap !

Posted March 13th at 5:33 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Wow the radar is really filling in in SE NY. Looks like it might be a long night and day tomorrow!

Posted March 13th at 12:25 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

These winds are really starting to pick-up. I’ve had several gusts of 40mph or more over the past hour. Not used to seeing leaves flying around.

Posted March 13th at 2:54 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Winds are 20-30 mph Highest gust was 49 mph at 3:05 PM.

Mt Washington is reporting winds of 45 mph and gusting to near 70 mph at the summit . For them, that’s nice weather. :)

Posted March 13th at 5:38 PM
Jill Reale (Utica):

Our highest wind gust at Rome was 37mph. Precipitation is now beginning to fill in across the Southern Valleys and in the Mohawk Valley. We have reports of rain mixing with snow on Albany Hill but besides that, just plain rain.

Posted March 13th at 6:21 PM
Jill Reale:

It is sleeting on top of Smith Hill.

Posted March 13th at 6:47 PM
Piseco Lake (Hamilton County):

Freezing rain, sleet and snow mixing in. Temperature is 32 degrees and slowly dropping, precipitation is starting to accumulate on the roadways.

Posted March 13th at 7:34 PM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

Not sure if the radar is down or if we are being shadowed by the catskills, but it appears to not be raining here in the Southern Hills. It is really odd to look at the radar and see the big hole in the precipitation for most the night!

Posted March 13th at 8:11 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Rain, Sleet, and snow here. Side roads have a coating mainly on the shoulders. DOT is out salting.

Posted March 13th at 8:22 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Same here Jeff, I haven’t had a drop of rain all day. My highest gust was 44mph. The wind seems to be dying down now.

Posted March 13th at 8:40 PM
Ted:

I just came over Higby Hill outside of Frankfort and it was snowing moderately up there.

Posted March 13th at 10:04 PM
fairfiled:

gust of 56 shortly before power went out first time. then about half our later went out again, been out for 45 min now. but luckily we have a gen

Posted March 13th at 10:09 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Potter Hollow in Albany County was reporting 4” inches of snow as of 10:20p.m.

Posted March 14th at 1:40 AM
Clifford (Garrattsville, Otsego):

Had power outages last night in my area. Snowing moderately now with 2” of accumulation. Winds still gusty.

Posted March 14th at 3:41 AM
Jill Reale (Utica):

Our signal over the air is down this morning due to the wind but will hopefully be back shortly. This wind will continue into the afternoon but most precipitation will stay out of our neck of the woods, outside of a few sprinkles. Our lowest high temperatures this month has been 37 degrees, which is impressive for March. Weather looks quiet once again as we go into next week with perhaps a cool down by next Sunday.

Posted March 14th at 9:53 AM
Anthony (Oriskany):

Hey Jill when is the Spring Forecast coming out?

Posted March 14th at 10:49 AM
nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

Can’t believe we didn’t get a drop of rain here from that system – we really need it with all the dust and dried leaves blowing around

Posted March 14th at 11:41 AM
deb in hartwick:

(1500 ‘) Had about an inch of slush on the ground this morning..didn’t get much rain at all yesterday. no rain today ..so far.
come on sunshine…melt this snow..and dry up this MUD!

Posted March 14th at 3:01 PM
Jill Reale (Utica):

Something I saw on Channel 9’s website that I thought was very interesting: The biggest seasonal winters in Baltimore and Washington since 1983 are 1986-76, 1995-96 and 2002-03 which are all season’s that Syracuse went to the Final Four.

Posted March 14th at 10:13 PM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Anthony,

We do not issue outlooks for spring, summer, or fall.

Posted March 15th at 9:06 AM
lilbabs:

Hey I am not complaining one bit this weather can stay until June I wouldn’t care one bit

Posted March 18th at 8:37 AM
lilbabs:

Hey I am not complaining one bit this weather can stay until June I wouldn’t care one bit

Posted March 18th at 8:37 AM
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