Biggest storm of the season (so far) misses CNY...

Posted February 5th, 2010 by Bill Kardas. 65 comments

Our weather patterns are looking quiet here for the weekend.  Aside from a few morning flurries in the north country, it will be dry through the weekend here in Central New York.

The weather is going to be a very, very different story to the south.  The largest storm of this winter is going to dump more than a foot of snow across a large chunk of real estate.  Check out the graphic above.  This is our in house computer model and the snowfall forecast through the weekend.  Northern Virginia, Maryland, West Virginia, Delaware, and Southern New Jersey are all in the red.  That means more than 12" of snow is expected to fall in these areas.  To put this all into perspective, many areas down here see between 15-20" of snow...for the season!  If that isn't enough to unleash your inner "weather weenie", check out this stat:

Baltimore's seasonal snowfall total as of this morning is 35.6".  If the weekend storm drops more than 14" of snow here, they will pass OUR season's snowfall (Utica's number...49.3") to date.  What makes that stat so remarkable is that if this were a "normal year", Balitmore would have about 10" at this point, and we'd have over 60"!  Probably the only time we'll ever be able to say "if you want more snow, head to Maryland".

As for our prospects of snow, there isn't much to talk about even into early next week.  Perhaps some light snow will try to drop in from the north on Monday.  The next storm that shows up over 140 hours into the future (next Wednesday).  That storm looks to be a double low, with the northern, weaker storm looking to impact the northeast. The overall weather patterns still favor southern storms, so we don't expect heavy snow anytime soon.  At least the snow we do have will be hanging around though, with temperatures staying below freezing for the next seven days.

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  1. Dale:

    what snow?This has been a lowsy winter. bring on spring.

    Posted February 5th at 9:30 AM

  2. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Heavy snow now entering Virginia. Virginia’s governor already declaring state of emergency (before storm hits). Zone forecast for DC calls for “2 feet or more”. GFS has 2.83” of QPF, NAM has 1.98”.

    Posted February 5th at 11:04 AM

  3. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Those values on the models remind me of the Christmas Day storm of ’02. A general rule is to multiply those numbers by 10 (assuming a 10:1 ratio) for an Atlantic storm. So, a rough idea for the snowfall totals would be 20-28”. The ratios may not be quite that high though. An 8:1 ratio would bring 16”-22”.

    Posted February 5th at 11:39 AM

  4. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I think it will average out to be a 10-12” ratio.
    It gets pretty chilly on the back side of the storm. They might even upgrade to a blizzard warning. SREFs spit out 3”+ for the metro area.

    Posted February 5th at 11:58 AM

  5. Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

    Waiting for the snow as we speak down here in ocean county nj, most locals are callin for 1-2 feet with lolipops of 30” (where banding sets up) ..The NAM, gfs and gfs esm all have between 1.25-1.5“IMBY here in jersey..Mount holly calling for 12-1 ratios for most of the area, so im expecting to see atleast a foot..That storm wed also looks pretty interesting in this area.. :-0

    Posted February 5th at 1:04 PM

  6. Scott (HP):

    Man! This mid atlantic storm is so close yet so far away. It looks stalled over that area right now.

    Posted February 5th at 2:15 PM

  7. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I know. Just looking at the big screen radar and it seems almost impossible for this storm to miss us. You would think we would at least see something…but we’re not! The Euro has a big storm hitting us next week. It’s gotta be our turn.

    Posted February 5th at 2:22 PM

  8. Becky (West Leyden):

    This system is going to be historic I won’t be surprised to see some areas in Virginia getting 34 to 36 inches. The models are spitting out a lot of QPF However, this is only part of the calculation The other half is the amount of easterly flow. and there’s a ton of it with this system.

    We still have a lot of time for winter. looking at the latest European Weekly Climate Forecast, this stormy weather pattern is locked in through the end of February into early March The laws of average say we have to get a least one or two storms hitting Central New York

    Posted February 5th at 2:50 PM

  9. Andy Forestport:

    We have spent more time talking about the weather in the Mid Atlantic all winter season, than our own weather, crappy rainy summer, to a snow storm deprived winter… It doesn’t get any better than this!!! lol

    Posted February 5th at 4:16 PM

  10. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Rob i agree, i think this is our storm for wed. GFS will catch up to what the europe is seeing…

    Posted February 5th at 5:52 PM

  11. Marjorie:

    Greetings from Fairfax, Virginia. At least 6 inches on the ground and it is coming down fast! It is a heavy wet snow. We will be stuck inside at least until Monday. No plow on my street yet.

    Posted February 5th at 8:08 PM

  12. Amanda:

    How is that storm looking for next week?

    Posted February 5th at 9:05 PM

  13. Adam Musyt:

    Still too early to tell. Could be another miss to the south. We’ll have a much better idea by later in the weekend.

    Posted February 5th at 9:25 PM

  14. Rob (Whitesboro):

    That storm is really starting to bomb now off the coast. big time snowfall rates heading into DC. Already 9” at Dulles.

    Posted February 5th at 9:28 PM

  15. Rob (Whitesboro):

    That should say 10”

    Posted February 5th at 9:29 PM

  16. Adam Musyt:

    Myrtle Beach is down to 997 mb too, with a t-storm. This thing is starting to crank now.

    Posted February 5th at 9:54 PM

  17. Justin (Whitesboro):

    O really liking the latest gfs 0z run for wed…!!

    Posted February 5th at 11:12 PM

  18. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah it’s trending more towards the Euro. It’s not showing a tremendous amount of precip though. That seems strange when you have a 980 storm with tons of upper level energy to work with.

    Posted February 5th at 11:28 PM

  19. Justin (Whitesboro):

    The GFS will catch up, always has this error of leaving energy behind…i know it is way too early for this but i predict a foot or more for cny out of this one!! fingers crossed lol…

    Posted February 5th at 11:33 PM

  20. tommy:

    fingers and toes need a storm like valentine s day 07 i think it was?? com on wed

    Posted February 6th at 12:03 AM

  21. Matt (CB):

    Interesting webcam on penn ave.http://www.trafficland.com/city/WAS/camera/9087/index.html They are getting what we should be getting

    Posted February 6th at 6:04 AM

  22. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Impressive conditions in Baltimore with thundersnow being reported. So far they have receieved 20” of snow from this storm, surpassing Utica in season snowfall totals

    Posted February 6th at 6:19 AM

  23. Amanda:

    Is there a noreaster brewing up for CNY on Wednesday?

    Posted February 6th at 7:41 AM

  24. Matt:

    Justin you’ve been saying this for every storm this year. I will LMAO if it misses us to the SOUTH yet again!!!!!!!

    Posted February 6th at 8:06 AM

  25. Jan:

    How ironic is it that they are trucking in snow for the Olympics in Vancouver! They could have had them in Washington DC with no problem!!

    Posted February 6th at 8:18 AM

  26. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Have a weather friend in Baltimore. 8:15am he’s got 26” and still snowing. I hate being an observer to these storms.

    Posted February 6th at 9:15 AM

  27. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Baltimore Season Total: 57.6” and counting
    Utica: 49.3”

    Posted February 6th at 9:18 AM

  28. randy Vitullo :

    The GFS is showing about .75 inches precip for CNY next Tuesday / Wednesday. It is looking more impressive with each passing day. It may finally be our turn…..

    Posted February 6th at 9:45 AM

  29. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Wow what a storm. Here is an update on totals from HPC.
    http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html

    Posted February 6th at 10:15 AM

  30. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Latest models=another miss for cny!! Can i have my WHY answered please?? This is BS…

    Posted February 6th at 12:32 PM

  31. cedarville:

    justin are you talking about wednesday storm

    Posted February 6th at 12:37 PM

  32. Justin (Whitesboro):

    #31: Certainly am…

    Posted February 6th at 12:38 PM

  33. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Justin I think we’re in good shape. The ensembles give us decent snow on average. Baltimore is up to 29” now and counting!

    Posted February 6th at 12:49 PM

  34. Matt:

    Holy moly! 29”??? According to the weather records on your website that’s BIGGER than the Valentines day storm of 2007! Two more inches and it would tie the largest storm on record for Utica. What do you think about that?

    Posted February 6th at 5:38 PM

  35. Jill Reale (Utica):

    A mile from Dulles International has 32” of snow! Baltimore seasonal snowfall is now at 61.6”! The Wednesday storm is still to our south but trending north. We will keep an eye on it, but don’t get your hopes up just yet, it is still 5 days out.

    Posted February 6th at 6:02 PM

  36. Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):

    Picked up 20+ here in ocean county nj..2nd 20+ storm of the yr over here..Funny thing is the 12zgfs wants to throw almost another 20” here on tue/wed..Historic season to say the least..

    Posted February 6th at 6:11 PM

  37. Brick Tamland:

    Team, what was the date of that devastating warmup? Trying to figure out how long my snowmobile has sat in the trailer and how long it will be before I go riding again(thurs maybe?). Thanks.

    Posted February 6th at 7:26 PM

  38. Jill Reale (Utica):

    We hit 49 degrees on January 25th (thats when we had the major flooding/icejam)

    Posted February 6th at 10:52 PM

  39. Jill Reale (Utica):

    GFS keeps Wed’s storm to our south, hitting DC/Baltimore yet again.

    Posted February 6th at 11:23 PM

  40. Brick Tamland:

    Thanks Jill

    Posted February 6th at 11:32 PM

  41. randy Vitullo :

    Unreal. For three days the trend was towards CNY. Suddenly; out to sea…...

    Posted February 7th at 5:57 AM

  42. cedarville:

    its really disapointing now

    Posted February 7th at 7:14 AM

  43. Justin (Whitesboro):

    The gfs ensembles look good for a direct hit…still some time yet..

    Posted February 7th at 7:46 AM

  44. Amanda:

    Is the Wednesday storm going to hit CNY or go to the south yet again?

    Posted February 7th at 7:50 AM

  45. Amanda:

    COME ON SNOW STORM WE ARE OVER DUE !!!

    Posted February 7th at 7:51 AM

  46. randy Vitullo :

    Why are we surprised?

    Posted February 7th at 9:04 AM

  47. Rob (Whitesboro):

    40” of snow in Colesville Maryland. That’s just a few miles north of DC. Got down to -1 here last night.

    Posted February 7th at 9:22 AM

  48. John (Utica):

    I need to hear more snowmobile sob stories…lol

    Posted February 7th at 10:02 AM

  49. Joe:

    Hopefully thie wed. storm misses us and for the next 6 weeks we get no snow, loving this winter.

    Posted February 7th at 10:26 AM

  50. Andrea (Utica):

    WKTV weather team….. Will this lack of snow bring about any drought conditions for spring/summer with the lack of snowfall this season? Is there any historical data linking low snowfall to dry summer conditions? As much as i love snow id gladly give up the snowmobiling season for a dry summer, vs last summer. Any thoughts anyone?

    Posted February 7th at 10:45 AM

  51. Jim:

    Is the next storm heading south again?

    Posted February 7th at 12:16 PM

  52. Mel (Westernville):

    You don’t have to go far to snowmobile – had a benefit poker run up this way yesterday. From here north there is plenty of snow.

    Posted February 7th at 12:19 PM

  53. Becky (West Leyden):

    Low here was -6. currently it’s 12 with a few snowflakes in the air.

    51 Right now the next storm looks to be a near miss. However a lot can happen in two days. The ensembles today and tomorrow morning will show where it’s headed.

    Posted February 7th at 12:28 PM

  54. Becky (West Leyden):

    Season total is at 114.325

    Posted February 7th at 12:37 PM

  55. Justin (Whitesboro):

    Tonights 18z and 0z runs should be interesting…hoping for a more NW trend out of the GFS!

    Posted February 7th at 1:47 PM

  56. Justin (Whitesboro):

    18z NAM gives cny .75 by 6z thursday..

    Posted February 7th at 3:59 PM

  57. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Winter Storm Watch already up in DC/Balt. I’m sure they’re glad to hear that!

    Posted February 7th at 4:17 PM

  58. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Sorry I have been quiet today, been very busy. I will be writing up a quick blog tonight on Wed “storm” during the super bowl.

    Posted February 7th at 4:46 PM

  59. Jill Reale (Utica):

    new entry up!

    Posted February 7th at 8:39 PM

  60. Roger:

    This morning Bill Kardas said he thought it was hilarious these storms missing us. I bet some of your advertisers that depend on snow dont think its hilarious!! Very poor comment!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Posted February 10th at 10:49 AM

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