Back to the summer slump...

Posted June 29th, 2009 by Bill Kardas. 55 comments

A large storm system will come sweeping in late tonight and Tuesday, and this will lock us back in to a cool, wet weather pattern.  These type of storm systems are slow moving and very stubborn.  The center of the low pressure will stall in Western New York and eventually lift into Canada late in the week. 

A cut off storm system is the last phase of a storm in which the storm is in it's dying phase.  We call these storms cut off storms because they are cut off from the jet stream, causing them to slow down and stall.  Cut off storms have odd behavior, and can oftentimes retrograde, or move in opposite direction to the normal flow (east to west in our case).  These storms are in their dying phase because the storm is also cut off from the stronger temperature gradients found along the boundary of the warm sector. 

The type of weather associated with cut off storms are similar to what we think of when we think spring: clouds and occasional rain showers.  Cut off storms carry with them pockets of cold air aloft, and this cold air is very unstable when strong sunshine is added to the picture.  This is also why afternoons are typically cloudy and more unsettled.  Cut off storms also rotate pieces of energy around them, and this creates pockets of steadier rain showers.  Often, the individual disturbances with cut off storms are most difficult to predict.  Eventually, a cut off storm will weaken and dissipate, but the process from start to finish usually takes several days.

On a side note, temperatures will finish the month below normal, with above normal precipitation.

Tags:

Add a Comment

Comments

  1. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Oh Joy! :-( I hate these types of weather patterns.

    Posted June 29th at 9:11 AM

  2. LM-Whitesboro:

    About a month ago I wrote in and asked if the long term forecast was going to be cool and wet for this summer. That was the forecast that a friend of mine heard from somewhere. Adam, I believe it was you that said you didn’t agree with it. Well here we are a month later and in between the few nice days we get, we are forecasted for rain, rain, rain, chance of rain, scattered showers. Guess who ever called the long term forecast seems to be on the right track.

    Posted June 29th at 9:22 AM

  3. Ken - south utica:

    Its just amazing…everyone is worried or complaing how bad the summer has been,.....we are only in our 2nd full week of summer….give it time.

    Posted June 29th at 1:41 PM

  4. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Storms/heavy showers are developing to the west. Another good set-up for hail with the cold air aloft moving in. SPC just put us in their slight risk area for tomorrow as well..

    Posted June 29th at 1:44 PM

  5. Tina:

    Ken,
    Some of us aren’t complaining simply for something to complain about. Those of us that have farms and gardens and need the good weather for the food harvest to get us through the winter can’t afford to “give it time”. We need some sun and decent temps for crops now.
    And I wish they’d hurry up and get here already!

    Posted June 29th at 2:21 PM

  6. Gordon (Westernville):

    It seems most posts talk about all the rain they keep getting. Well send some my way. I have onlt had .16” since Friday June 19. My garden is very dry and i had to spend 2 hours Saturday watering it. So send some of that rain my way. As usual all the rain skirts by me. As I sat in front of the radar scope for the last two hours controlling air traffic, I saw a large area of rain out over Syracuse heading my way , but once again it is falling apart.

    Posted June 29th at 9:33 PM

  7. Bill Kardas:

    Upcoming weekend looks cool and wet too. Can’t rule out a few showers for the 4th of July and Sunday. We’ll hope for the best for now.

    Posted June 30th at 4:25 AM

  8. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Haven’t had much sun yet here this morning. Sounds like a Watch Box will be issued shortly from Utica eastbound.

    Posted June 30th at 11:05 AM

  9. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    I was just reading that from the SPC too Rob.

    Posted June 30th at 11:29 AM

  10. Rob (Whitesboro):

    It would be nice to get some storms so we can break in your new radar. I just hit 72 here with some sunshine. The dew is 62 so there is at least some instability developing.

    Posted June 30th at 11:44 AM

  11. Jessica:

    Posted June 30th at 11:57 AM

  12. Jessica:

    Bill
    Are we expecting severe weather today? What is the threat?
    Thanks

    Posted June 30th at 11:58 AM

  13. Bill Kardas:

    Jessica,

    A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for areas east of Utica. Low topped thunderstorms may produce some gusty winds and small hail.

    Posted June 30th at 12:14 PM

  14. Bill Kardas:

    Scattered showers and storms will continue to intensifty to the south and east of Utica. Our radar is advertising hail with a few of these cells, especially the one that prompted the warning in Delaware County. Whatever does happen should be soon, as this line continues to spin to the north and east.

    Posted June 30th at 12:27 PM

  15. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Yeah Rob. There is one Sever T’Storm on there now. Still working out the kinks. Sorry if it isnt up all the time as of now.

    Posted June 30th at 12:29 PM

  16. Bill Kardas:

    Watching a storm fire up just northeast of here on Smith Hill. Amazing how quickly this storm developed. Our radar is also flagging some small hail with that one.

    Posted June 30th at 12:40 PM

  17. Bill Kardas:

    The strongest storms will continue to track east of the viewing area today. Right now the line is in Eastern Otsego/Herkimer County and will continue to exit the area. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a warning for Herkimer or Otsego go up soon.

    Posted June 30th at 12:57 PM

  18. Bill Kardas:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK... SOUTHEASTERN HERKIMER COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK... WEST CENTRAL FULTON COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK...

    • UNTIL 200 PM EDT

    • AT 1257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JORDANVILLE...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF HARTWICK...AND MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

    • THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
    6 MILES EAST OF JORDANVILLE BY 110 PM EDT... LITTLE FALLS AND 6 MILES WEST OF ST. JOHNSVILLE BY 135 PM EDT... DOLGEVILLE BY 150 PM EDT...

    Posted June 30th at 1:02 PM

  19. Bill Kardas:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

    • FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
    MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN EASTERN NEW YORK... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…FONDA...CANAJOHARIE...

    • UNTIL 545 PM EDT

    • AT 137 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
    FLASH FLOODING FROM A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA.

    • LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AMES...
    TRIBES HILL...ST. JOHNSVILLE AND FORT PLAIN

    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AROUND TWO AND A
    HALF INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST HOUR. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES
    IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 3 PM. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND STANDING
    WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED. ADDITIONAL RUN
    OFF WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
    ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
    SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

    MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
    AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
    DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
    ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
    ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN

    Posted June 30th at 1:50 PM

  20. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    The Tornado Warning for north central Sullivan and central
    Delaware counties is cancelled…

    The circulations with the thunderstorm have weakened… and therefore
    the Tornado Warning has been canceled. However… a Severe
    Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for this storm for the
    possibility of large hail.

    A funnel cloud was reported in Livingston Manor around 155 PM.

    Posted June 30th at 2:16 PM

  21. Andy Forestport:

    Myabe August and September will be better, lmao

    Posted June 30th at 3:35 PM

  22. kathy:

    How is the weather looking for tonite’s Drums along the Mohawk? Hoping the rain and thunder can hold off long enough for these young people…they put on such a fabulous show

    Posted June 30th at 3:42 PM

  23. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like ENY received a widespread 1-3” of rain today. Everything went around me here. My rain gauge is dry.

    Posted June 30th at 7:15 PM

  24. Tony - CNYWeather.com:

    Same here Rob. Got .04” in my gauge. Was in Cleveland (NY) with the wife for softball last night and it sure was rainy there.

    Posted July 1st at 7:56 AM

  25. Sara:

    Posted July 1st at 8:20 AM

  26. Sara:

    Bill
    Are tornado’s going to be a threat today or tomorrow?

    Posted July 1st at 8:21 AM

  27. Bill Kardas:

    Sara,

    No. Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and they may produce heavy rain, small hail, and gusy winds but not tornadoes.

    Posted July 1st at 8:46 AM

  28. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Storm is rapidly developing over top of me right now. Were getting some good cloud to ground lightning here too.

    Posted July 1st at 4:20 PM

  29. Rob (Whitesboro):

    No action here today…so far. Actually I had quite a bit of sun and even hit 80 degrees. I got to get hit sometime with this system.

    Posted July 1st at 6:18 PM

  30. Adam Musyt:

    Looks like a cell is popping just west of Whitesboro now.

    Posted July 1st at 6:34 PM

  31. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I’m right on the eastern fringe of the storm. Very heavy rain every minute or so then it stops. Couple ground strikes as well. No wind.

    Posted July 1st at 7:13 PM

  32. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    FLOOD ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    705 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

    NYC065-020200-
    /O.NEW.KBGM.FA.Y.0032.090701T2305Z-090702T0200Z/
    /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
    ONEIDA NY-
    705 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED AN

    • URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
    EASTERN ONEIDA COUNTY...

    • UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

    • AT 703 PM EDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING...AND

    WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.

    • LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
    COLEMANS...FRENCHVILLE...GRIFFISS AFB...KIRKLAND...MAYNARD...NORTH WESTERN...WESTERNVILLE AND WHITESBORO.

    A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY HEAVY
    RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 730
    PM. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW THAT NEARLY AN INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
    FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.

    Posted July 1st at 7:22 PM

  33. Adam Musyt:

    Rob,

    Thanks for the report. About five minutes ago i stepped outside and saw quite a thick area of rain off to the southwest contrasted with sunshine on either side of it. It was of those things where your mind can play tricks on you. A couple of calls into the newsroom asked if it was a tornado – but just to be clear – it’s not.

    Posted July 1st at 7:24 PM

  34. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah it was quite intense. Estimates show that around 2” of rain fell in an hour just down the road to my west. I measured .28” here. Sun is coming out now.

    Posted July 1st at 7:40 PM

  35. Tony - CNYWeather.com::

    I was watching that storm Rob while I was mowing. Not A Drop here in Westmoreland. Was watching it with GR Level 3 and looked quite impressive. (Added a storm cell table for your enjoyment also)

    Posted July 1st at 8:12 PM

  36. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Just had a 31mph gust here. Came out of no where. The winds have been calm. Maybe an out flow or something. Tony I just went down into the village for gas and there wasn’t a drop either.

    Posted July 1st at 8:51 PM

  37. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Total rainfall for the day is 0.08” here in town. My CoCoRaHs rain gauge works great! Looks like a good slug of rain is forming down over Pennsylvania and is headed NNE towards us. Heaviest would appear to be east of Utica (again). If I were in the Capital Distict tonight, I would REALLY keep a close eye on this. Colonie and Troy got blasted with some pretty severe flooding earlier, so it won’t take much to cause problems out that way.

    Posted July 1st at 11:15 PM

  38. Ron on Higby (by the FAA Beacon):

    we have had basically nothing up here,talked to my Mom in Schenectady had they have got hit bad the last 2 days,around an inch of rain a day

    Posted July 2nd at 12:24 AM

  39. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    We had nickel and dime stuff this week nothing to write home about. Looks like there is a slug of precip over Otsego and Eastern Chenango Ctys moving north.

    Posted July 2nd at 11:31 AM

  40. Kenny (South utica):

    starting to look like a line of showers and thuderstorms is forming just to our west…and slowly moving east northeast…any thoughts on this…blog is kind of quiet today

    Posted July 2nd at 2:52 PM

  41. Kenny (South utica):

    starting to look like a line of showers and thuderstorms is forming just to our west…and slowly moving east northeast…any thoughts on this…blog is kind of quiet today

    Posted July 2nd at 2:52 PM

  42. Kenny (South utica):

    starting to look like a line of showers and thuderstorms is forming just to our west…and slowly moving east northeast…any thoughts on this…blog is kind of quiet today

    Posted July 2nd at 2:52 PM

  43. Kenny (South utica):

    starting to look like a line of showers and thuderstorms is forming just to our west…and slowly moving east northeast…any thoughts on this…blog is kind of quiet today

    Posted July 2nd at 2:52 PM

  44. Kenny (South utica):

    sorry not sure what happend there only meant to post once

    Posted July 2nd at 2:54 PM

  45. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    FLOOD ADVISORY
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
    409 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

    NYC053-065-022200-
    /O.NEW.KBGM.FA.Y.0035.090702T2009Z-090702T2200Z/
    /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
    MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-
    409 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED AN

    • URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
    MADISON COUNTY... ONEIDA COUNTY...

    • UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

    • AT 404 PM EDT DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING...AND

    WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING.

    • LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
    CANASTOTA...COLEMANS...EATON...GRIFFISS AFB...HAMILTON...HUBBARD CORNERS...HUBBARDSVILLE...KENWOOD...KIRKLAND...LAKEPORT... MORRISVILLE...MUNNSVILLE...NORTH BROOKFIELD...ONEIDA...ONEIDA CASTLE...ORISKANY FALLS...PARIS...PERRYVILLE...ROME...STOCKWELL... SULLIVAN...SYLVAN BEACH...UNION CORNERS...VERNON CENTER...VERONA MILLS...WEST EATON AND WHITESBORO.

    RADAR IS ESTIMATING RAINFALL RATES OF ONE TO ONE AND HALF INCHES OF
    RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW
    MOVING TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. ADDITIONAL RAIN COULD CAUSE AREAS
    OF MINOR FLOODING AND WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

    Posted July 2nd at 4:39 PM

  46. Matt (Utica):

    Nasty clouds coming this way, looks like a nasty storm too, surprised there are no warnings. Getting really dark and starting to rain… I can also hear thunder off in this distance. Finally something to take this humidity away.

    Posted July 2nd at 4:58 PM

  47. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    1.14” inches of rain for the day here.

    Posted July 2nd at 10:00 PM

  48. Bob (Cooperstown):

    I was hoping to see a holiday weekend entry

    Posted July 3rd at 1:46 AM

  49. Bill Kardas:

    Bob,

    Was planning on getting one out there later on today. The rest of the gang is out of town, so I’ll be here morning, evening, and night :)

    Posted July 3rd at 4:24 AM

  50. randy Vitullo :

    We are now in the shrinking days of summer and we can’t get a heat wave, or a day without rain. Summer is closing even though it is a mere two weeks old. With the days getting shorter, there is no make up for lost days without summer’s heat. Does anyone see a major pattern change for the northeast; or, is it more of the same for most of it, with the change finally occurring during last week of August into September?

    Posted July 3rd at 8:04 AM

  51. Sarah:

    Oh, Randy….please don’t remind us the days are getting shorter yet!! :O) I agree, totally , we need some heat and sunshine, but let’s not be so depressed!! Keep the faith…summer HAS to get here. Hopefully not in September! :O)

    Posted July 3rd at 9:09 AM

  52. Rob (Whitesboro):

    CPC has us for below average temps for the whole month of July. It builds a massive ridge in the center part of the country with a sizzling heatwave as well. Have a great holiday weekend!
    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/

    Posted July 3rd at 12:01 PM

  53. Bob ( cooperstown):

    Thanks Bill I understand short staffing

    Posted July 3rd at 7:29 PM

  54. Bob ( cooperstown):

    Thanks Bill I understand short staffing

    Posted July 3rd at 7:29 PM

  55. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Is that an 87 I see for next Friday!!!!! Too bad it won’t last for a the rest of the Summer.

    Posted July 3rd at 9:36 PM

Add a Comment

Name:
Comment:
Verify:

Important! Please find the alphanumeric characters in the image, then type them into the box below. You are asked to do this in order to verify that this comment is not being submitted by an automated process.

↑ Back to Top

Recent Comments on this Entry

Recent Entries

Top 5 Tags