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Why has it been a warm winter?

The jet stream position is responsible for weather patterns throughout the year. In an average winter, the jet stream position is over or south of Central New York. Our average winter is filled with snowfall events including coastal storms, clippers, and lake effect producing cold fronts.

This year, the jet stream is much farther north. This keeps the cold air to the north, and prevents the formation of lake effect. Any storms that do pass by usually pass by to our west, bringing rain, sleet, and freezing rain and little snow.

Will it change?

Yes, the weather will inevitably change. Will it change before winter is over? Odds are it will. Weather patterns typically last several weeks. The one we've seen has lasted most of the winter, so history says we're nearing the end.

Will the lack of snowfall cause a drought in the spring?

This question is a bit premature. We have all of February and early March to build a snowpack before spring. To answer the question, no, the lack of snowfall will not be the reason for a drought. Despite the lack of snowfall, it has been a wet winter. Rivers and streams are running near or above normal. A drought in the spring will come from the lack of rain in March, April, and May.

Believe it or not, the lack of snowfall is a good thing for flooding issues. Heavy rain in the spring combined with melting snow triggers annual flooding along area streams and creeks. This year, the threat for flooding will be smaller.

Will the mild winter bring a cold/wet spring/summer?

No, the mild winter alone will not play a role in spring/summer weather. Past seasonal weather is not a good predictor of future seasonal weather.

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Randy HP (Holland Patent):

Am I seeing yet another monster rain storm near Valentine’s day next week? I checked yesterday on the GFS and it shows a whopper of a storm tracking to our west. I hope that scenario does not play out.

Posted February 7th at 6:24 AM
Randy HP (Holland Patent):

The Valentine’s Day event looks a lot different today. Of course it does. That is what computer models do; flip flop. I hate that term. And, I hate computer models.

Posted February 7th at 6:31 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Randy- Save yourself the grief and don’t take them seriously after 5 days. You’ll sleep better at night :)

Posted February 7th at 6:34 AM
Anthony (Oriskany [Elevation 565 ft.]):

The CPC has above avg temps in the 8-14 day outlook. which takes us almost to the end of February. They have been uncharacteristically accurate this winter.

Posted February 7th at 7:42 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Anthony- big fan of the CPC. We put more weight into what they have to say than many of the forecast models.

Posted February 7th at 7:58 AM
MG (Point Rock):

Just a few grains of snow in the air this morning. Still holding on to a 4” snowpack (really, icepack) at home. It’s all bare in Boonville.

Posted February 7th at 9:13 AM
MG (Point Rock):

Bill,
I’m a little surprised to hear your opinion of the CPC’s long range forecast. Although I agree with Anthony that they’ve been on the mark this winter, that’s not been my usual experience

Posted February 7th at 9:16 AM
Lori (Bridgeport):

I am seeing these strange little white things floating in the air outside my window …...wonder what they could be ??

Posted February 7th at 10:14 AM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

MG- It’s a different animal when you’re looking at long range forecasting. It’s not individual models that you focus on. Instead, it’s a combination of several models, trends, and most importantly, climatology.

I really like the technique used by the CPC in the sense that they don’t mislead folks into a day by day 8-14 day forecast. We know the dangers in trying to predict the weather beyond 7 days…seen many a good storm disappear or nice weather turn sour. The trend forecast beyond 7 days is the way to go. It’s not perfect, but it is much more helpful than the day by day method.

Posted February 7th at 11:10 AM
Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

I didn’t have enough to change my seasonal snowfall total, but here it is late but better then never!

Weekly Snowfall- 0.4”
Seasonal Snowfall- 36.6”

Posted February 7th at 3:51 PM
Tom (Richfield Springs):

12 degrees, calm, overcast, not as cold as I had expected.

Posted February 8th at 4:58 AM
Denys (East Winfield):

14 degrees, partly cloudy and mild. I had expected to be around 0 this morning as the forcast predicted 9 and we are always colder.
It’s kind of sad when you get excited about it being 14 degrees! lol

Posted February 8th at 5:27 AM
Nick (West Winfield,NY):

14 degrees here also…...been sleeping in tryong to recover from that loss Sunday.

Posted February 8th at 6:14 AM
madmax (Turin):

5 degrees up here…

Posted February 8th at 6:17 AM
Lori (Bridgeport):

18 degrees here …still feels awfully chilly….

Posted February 8th at 6:21 AM
Randy HP (Holland Patent):

I wish there were a storm to get this blog going. It is too dull with no weather to talk about.

Anything on the horizon for Valentine’s Day and beyond (possibilities)?

Posted February 8th at 12:08 PM
Rob (Whitesboro):

Cold front and an arctic front on the GFS this weekend. Probably some heavy squalls with both and a brief shot of LES as well.

Posted February 8th at 12:38 PM
Bill Kardas (WKTV):

Randy- Rob is right. The best chance of snow looks to be with that front late Friday. Nothing big, but enough to remind us that it’s still winter.

Posted February 8th at 12:47 PM
nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):

And then comes the next western runner with temps back in the 40’s later on next week. Haven’t we had this same discussion every week since November? I’m done with winter, bring on the severe storms.

Posted February 8th at 12:56 PM
Tom (Richfield Springs):

23 degrees, overcast, light wind.

Posted February 9th at 4:59 AM
Nick (West Winfield,NY):

23 degrees here also with a light wind and cloudy.

Posted February 9th at 5:08 AM
Denys (East Winfield):

22 degress, mostly cloudy with a light wind.

Posted February 9th at 5:17 AM
Winter (Forestport):

...Zzzzzzzzzzzz…............................

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