It's been that kind of winter. Another opportunity for precipitation...not entirely in the form of snow. In fact, many areas will see rain with our next weather maker. Here are the details...
Rest of today & tonight
Snowflakes and raindrops today will linger into the early afternoon with a thick deck of clouds. Skies will partially clear out overnight, allowing temperatures to fall into the 20s.
Thursday
The next weather maker will curve to our west. All storm systems churn air in a counter clockwise fashion. This will allow for warmer air to build in ahead of the next storm. In a typical mid winter scenario, low level cold air helps to delay this warm air.
Many times, a scenario like this would produce sleet and freezing rain. This time around, the odds of that happening look very slim. First, there's little snowpack in our area to help lock in the cold. Second, the air in place now isn't very cold. Finally, the mechanism (high pressure) that helps drive an east wind looks very weak. So, instead of sleet/freezing rain, our bigger concern will be rain and snow.
How can it rain if the 540 line is south?
For those of you who've been studying up on your meteorology, you're familiar with the 540 'rain snow' line on the weather maps. This gives us a rough idea which areas will see rain vs snow. It doesn't always work out that way though, and tomorrow will be a perfect example.
All about surface temperatures
Surface temperatures tomorrow will likely climb into the upper 30s before the precipitation begins. With that in mind, it will likely start out as rain. Some of the rain will help to cool off the column of atmosphere, but without heavy precipitation, it will have a hard time switching over to snow in the lower elevations. Higher elevations will not have this problem, and should be able to squeeze out a mostly snow event. We'll have a snowfall forecast ready for the noon broadcast...
Storm to watch for the weekend
The GFS is showing signs of a potential storm for Sunday. The GFS is the only model so far that's on board with bringing the system far enough north. With the event several days away, it's something we intend to watch closely, but understand the scenario will likely change several times over. We'll keep you posted.
Comments
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Snowfall map for tomorrow:
http://wktv.bimedia.net/snowfall.jpg
Posted February 15th at 12:47 PM
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Randy HP (Holland Patent):
The 850 blue 0 line stays just south of us for the entire event Thursday through Friday. Maybe we will get hit on Thursday night to Friday morning.
The GFS is really moving Sunday’s storm closer to us. If it panned out as is we could stand to get at least a foot out it. I will believe it when I actually see this thing unfold. HOPE>>>>
Posted February 15th at 1:45 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Then back to above normal temperatures Tuesday so it will be melted by weeks end – been our “luck” all this winter.
Posted February 15th at 1:56 PM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
Here’s a big jinx for winter, the GFS trend is winters friend….only model right now showing a possible coastal “phased” storm this weekend!
Posted February 15th at 3:40 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Even if the GFS is right it’s no big storm. Still not alot of cold air to wrap in unless it totally bombs. Looks like 3-6” of slop to me.
Posted February 15th at 4:15 PM
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Anthony (Oriskany [Elevation 565 ft.]):
HPC says No to the GFS....
Posted February 15th at 6:45 PM
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Denys (East Winfield):
21 degrees, some clouds (I can see a few stars!) and a light wind.
Posted February 16th at 5:01 AM
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Tom (Richfield Springs):
18 degrees, calm, few high clouds.
Posted February 16th at 5:02 AM
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Randy HP (Holland Patent):
Models: Back out to sea. Boo….
Posted February 16th at 6:14 AM
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Nick (West Winfield,NY):
23 degrees here.
Posted February 16th at 6:28 AM
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Norm (Floyd, NY):
30* here this morning.
Red sky in the morning…
Posted February 16th at 7:33 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Bit of sleet mixing in with rain at the bottom of Smith Hill. Roads are wet but not slippery.
Posted February 16th at 10:28 AM
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MG (Point Rock):
A little light snow falling in Boonville
Posted February 16th at 11:18 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Light snow falling here as well.
Posted February 16th at 11:37 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Been snowing the past hour here. Coming down pretty good right now. Little slush on the car. Temp at 35.
Posted February 16th at 11:37 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Intensity picked up a little and temp dropped a degree to 33
Posted February 16th at 12:11 PM
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nugfin (South Utica - Genesee St.):
That’s weird to hear you guys are getting some snow. Nothing but some very light sprinkles out here in Oneida all morning.
Posted February 16th at 12:29 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
0.2” here and still snowing. Looks like some heavy precip is heading this way for a bit.
Posted February 16th at 12:30 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Down to 32 and finally starting t o stick here.
Posted February 16th at 1:34 PM
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sue (fairfield):
has been here since before noon but nothing is sticking….temp 33
Posted February 16th at 2:05 PM
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Denys (East Winfield):
raining in the village of New Hartford. It started off as snow, then went to sleet and then to plain rain.
Posted February 16th at 2:19 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Still snowing here but what fell earlier has melted. Temp at 35 right now.
Posted February 16th at 2:35 PM
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Jimmy (New Hartford):
All plain rain here.
Posted February 16th at 2:40 PM
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sue (fairfield):
still snowing here….starting to stick on the grass and driveway….just don’t walk or breathe on it ; )
temp holding at 33
Posted February 16th at 2:52 PM
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Tom (Richfield Springs):
Just a light rain/snow mix here, nothing sticking to the ground yet.
Posted February 16th at 2:56 PM
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Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):
Rain up on the hill here on Seneca Turnpike.
Posted February 16th at 3:34 PM
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Gordon (Northwestern):
Just got back inside after about 1 hr. of cross country skiing. For the most part there has not been enough snow at my house to snowmobile, but there has been plenty for cross country skiing. CC skiing is not as good as snowmobiling, but at least it gets me outside. Started to snow about 11:30 AM, but did not stick to anything till about 2PM. Have 1/4” of new snow so far since 2PM. Current temp. at 3:45 PM is 32 F.
Posted February 16th at 3:45 PM
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mike w (HERKIMER):
Rain changed to snow imby ,3 miles NE of the village..Grass is getting lightly covered..
Posted February 16th at 4:43 PM
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sue (fairfield):
still snowing up here…..coating on the ground….temp down to 32
Posted February 16th at 5:23 PM
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MG (Point Rock):
only about a half inch up here, but back roads are getting surprisingly bad
Posted February 16th at 5:29 PM
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Denys (East Winfield):
31 degrees, light wind, light to moderate snow falling. A coating of new snow on the ground so far.
Posted February 16th at 5:53 PM
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Adam Musyt:
0.8” snow at our studios. Parking lot, roadway are covered. Steady light snow still falling.
Posted February 16th at 5:59 PM
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Tim (Salisbury):
It has been snowing at a pretty good clip here on Dairy Hill in Salisbury just about all Day!Roads are very slippery! Estimation at least 4”’ & still coming! We had about a foot of snowpack already.
Posted February 16th at 7:24 PM
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