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Happy Friday folks! Winter has been very much winter over the past several days, with bitter cold temperatures and more than plenty of snow. Check out some of the overnight lows on our website by the way. This was the coldest night of the year by far for the Adirondacks (average temps up there -20 to almost -30 below). With -6 as the low, that surprisingly was not our coldest night (it was -11 on January 3rd). However, this was the 5th day this winter going below zero in town.

Today-Saturday snow event:
Our next snow maker is almost certainly going to be an overachiever. First of all, clipper systems are very challenging to forecast. Frequently, clippers tend to be stronger and wetter than the forecast models suggest. Part of that has to do with the lake influence. This time around though, the models have been very poor in predicting the strength of today's system. Check out the difference between the 00z and 12z NAM and you'll see what I'm talking about. The NAM may be overdoing the QPF, but it's the trend that we're concerned about.

How much snow will we get and why?
The current thinking is that a heavy band will develop and park itself across the north country. Snow/liquid ratios will probably range from 12:1 to 15:1 in the valleys to 15:1 to 18:1 in the higher elevations. With that in mind, the Southern Adirondacks should have no problem achieving 0.5-0.8" of liquid tonight and tomorrow, meaning a forecast of 7"-14" isn't unreasonable. The Mohawk valley and points south clock in 0.3-0.5" of QPF, giving a forecast of 5"-9".

Should be interesting to see how this unfolds.

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Comments

Fran:

I'm liking the lack of the word "rain"!

Posted February 29th at 12:30 PM
MikeD:

Bill/Matt, what about mon/tue/wed's mess? I'm in Tampa(upper60's)til mon and I'm wondering if I will have any snow to come back to to go snowmobiling on(south of I-90)? Thanks.

Posted February 29th at 12:34 PM
Matt (CB):

I like the term"sytem" rather than storm.This past week we had snow.Didn't qualify as a storm to me because it basically snowed.
Storm just sounds-scary and everyone blows it out of proporttion.Anyway,how is that "sytem" looking for next week?Temp up to 20 now.Very good recovery from this morning

Posted February 29th at 12:38 PM
Bill Kardas:

MikeD,

We have a very healthy snowpack here in CNY. Even with this warmup, the snowpack will be safe.

Posted February 29th at 12:51 PM
James:

Bill: Is the current thinking still a 3-6pm start to the snow in our area?

Posted February 29th at 2:01 PM
John from cold brook:

This stinks....I can't wait for any type of warmup to occur.

Posted February 29th at 2:24 PM
Jeff:

Where is all the moisture coming from? It appears that the moisture is all down in PA moving East. Is that going to come into NY or wrap around?

Posted February 29th at 2:49 PM
Ken (south utica -Hillcrest manor):

its amazing how yesterday this was a couple of inches of nuisance snow now we are talking 4-8 in the mohawk valley.....will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Posted February 29th at 2:51 PM
Anthony:

L.Ontaio will be helping out the clipper. This is very typical with this type of setup.

Posted February 29th at 3:14 PM
Matt Lanza:

I'm still not sold on this thing being prolific...granted all the model data points to that, but there are a few things I am concerned with.

First, winds are going to be from a southerly direction this evening. You can't tap Lake Ontario with a south wind. One positive thing I see is a slight southeasterly component, which means Atlantic moisture can get infused into the system, which would be a help. Second, the air right now is dry, so you're talking a solid 30-90 minutes of "virga snow," snow falling aloft, radar showing snow, but it evaporates before it reaches the ground. Rome is currently 24, with a dewpoint of 7. This will take some coaxing. That doesn't help, but it's not a dire feature. Third, there is quite a dry slot showing up right now across Michigan and Indiana. Not a grave concern either, but worth noting.

Radar presentation looks modest right now across W NY, with certainly some heavy snow showing up in spots. Watching this cautiously right now and I'll continue to update this evening.

Posted February 29th at 3:33 PM
Matt Lanza:

I will be tweaking the snow map for this evening, but keeping the general spirit of Bill's forecast in the image. Map coming around 4:30.

Posted February 29th at 3:44 PM
Matt HP:

Matt are you thinking lower amounts across the board as a general idea?

Posted February 29th at 3:52 PM
Brad (Oneonta):

Gotta give Mike M some credit on his forecast discussion. He grasps at straws once in awhile, but he was looking at this scenario with Atlantic moisture and more snow for a couple of days now. Everyone was saying no and he stuck to it. Good job man.

Posted February 29th at 3:52 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: Only in the Mohawk Valley. 2-5". You go about 5 miles north of the Valley floor (Utica, Herkimer, etc.) and that could double. It's going to be one of those tight snowfall gradient storms. And this will be spread out over tonight and tomorrow.

Posted February 29th at 3:56 PM
MikeD(Tampa):

Matt, rain on Mon or a mix. How much liquid precip.? Thanks

Posted February 29th at 3:59 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: I'll get to all that later, I promise. Too much short term stuff to keep track of right now.

Posted February 29th at 4:07 PM
Matt HP:

Matt, So you think that once you get north of the thruway accumulations will be greater?

Posted February 29th at 4:37 PM
Matt (CB):

We had a high of 24.7 around 2:30pm.The winds were steady out of the East and the temp has dropped to 21.Was just talking to a friend from Rochester,no snow there yet

Posted February 29th at 4:47 PM
Matt Lanza:

Updated snow map here.

I do believe there is going to be a VERY tight snowfall gradient between the Mohawk Valley and especially 5-10 miles north. It's conceivable that Utica gets 3-4", while Poland receives 7-8".

Posted February 29th at 4:49 PM
Dan(Herkimer):

Matt,Do you think Herkimer will get hit hard? Cause I hope so!!!!

Posted February 29th at 4:50 PM
Matt (CB):

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 PM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

NYZ032-033-038-042-043-064-065-011200-
NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-SOUTHERN HERKIMER-NORTHERN WARREN-
NORTHERN WASHINGTON-EASTERN ULSTER-WESTERN DUTCHESS-
445 PM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...
UPPER HUDSON VALLEY AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

SNOW ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

SNOW ADVISORY.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY...
INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

Posted February 29th at 4:50 PM
Matt Lanza:

Dan: Not really: I don't expect more than 4-5" really.

I have to concede here that I am not comfortable even tossing out numbers as high as we have out there right now. I honestly think that, yes, this will overachieve, but I am really struggling to see this be a rocking storm.

Matt: Big concern in the extended is possible icing Monday morning up your way. Could be interesting.

Mike: Precip on Monday will fall partially frozen, partially liquid...should not cause major snowpack damage, but a quarter inch or so is possible.

Posted February 29th at 5:00 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Snow has already begun down here. Very fine flakes at this time.

Posted February 29th at 5:03 PM
JIM:

fine flakes in new hartford too. rather sad looking really.

Posted February 29th at 5:22 PM
kelly:

Matt your saying that the Mohawk Valley is only going to get 2-5 you think just wondering have places to go tonight? I just heard of alot more for the Mohawk Ilion and Herkimer area...Just wondering your thoughts thanks

Posted February 29th at 5:23 PM
Matt Lanza:

Kelly: Map says 3-6".

Posted February 29th at 5:23 PM
kelly:

thanks

Posted February 29th at 5:25 PM
Barb (E. Winfield):

Fine flakes just started here. You can see the snow in the southern hills coming this way!

Posted February 29th at 5:36 PM
Matt Lanza:

Fine flakes aren't great news either. These add up much slower than the ginormous ones we had the other day. Can you tell I'm skeptical? I hate being this way once an event starts, but I have to say, it is a tough one.

Posted February 29th at 5:39 PM
Matt Lanza:

A band of extremely heavy snow is lifting into southern Madison County right now and will arrive in southern Oneida within the next 45-90 minutes. This may do a number on area roadways, so be prepared.

Posted February 29th at 6:14 PM
Richard:

Matt, I am traveling to Clinton from central Virginia. Any thoughts on what I might encounter in the mountains of Pa. from about mid-AM on. Thanks.

Posted February 29th at 6:40 PM
Matt (CB):

Well it has arrived right on time.The temp has dropped down to 17 and the winds are gusting at times out of the north east.The roads are getting a covering on them already.Can't wait for my 4 am drive into work tomorrow morning.Yeah !! No school= no plows

Posted February 29th at 6:44 PM
Brad (Oneonta):

Been snowing steadily for awhile now. Got about an 3/4 inch so far.

Posted February 29th at 7:05 PM
roady:

A quick 3" here now we're in the dreaded dry socket.

Posted February 29th at 7:22 PM
Matt Lanza:

Thanks, roady for the total!

Posted February 29th at 7:27 PM
Jim in North Utica near Schuyler Line:

Snow looking much healthier now, bugger, and coming down moderate to heavy.

Posted February 29th at 7:38 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Only 1/4" here so far.Snowflake size has increased during the past 10 minutes.

Posted February 29th at 7:39 PM
Jim in North Utica near Schuyler Line:

LOL, bigger now, not bugger.....

Posted February 29th at 7:39 PM
stevo (rome):

snowing and blowing pretty well here in Rome.we got a solid inch at least here. hard to measure its blowing too much.

Posted February 29th at 7:53 PM
John:

3" where are you roady??? very light snow here in madison with just a coating of snow.

Posted February 29th at 8:00 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

The snow here is falling lightly. We have about one inch on the ground. The winds have been gusting to 30 mph The wind is causing quite a bit of drifting, with the snow banks up this way being five to seven feet high, its the drifting that will cause driving problems tonight.

Posted February 29th at 8:00 PM
Matt Lanza:

Only about a half inch here on Smith Hill, but significant blowing/drifting beginning to develop. As Becky said, this will be the main issue, especially in elevated areas. Not ridiculously windy tonight, but enough of a breeze to cause issues.

Posted February 29th at 8:07 PM
roady (another man from Plymouth :-):

17* w/ lt snow now.

Posted February 29th at 8:29 PM
Heather (german flatts):

been snowing here since about 7pm roads are covered thruway travel 45-50 5s travel slower hubbys in work in saint johnsville said its snowing pretty hard been there 2 hrs and has to brush off truck with snowbrush Hes going to measure out there and let me know so ill keep you posted on here and st.johnsville areas

Posted February 29th at 9:12 PM
MJ(Trenton):

18^, quite gusty, decent moderate snow. Finally coming down as good as it looks on radar. Had 1" when I was out an hour ago, tracks covered, must be getting close to 2" now.

Posted February 29th at 9:16 PM
Matt Lanza:

New entry is up!

Posted February 29th at 9:18 PM

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