Another lake effect event almost in the books...

Posted February 21st, 2013 by Bill Kardas. 67 comments

As expected, several inches of snow fell across CNY last night.  As with just about all lake effect events, some places saw A LOT more than others. The norm seems to be between 2-5", which was last night's forecast.  There were a few higher amounts in the mix too.  Here's a look at the list:

 

Location Amount
Westdale 20
Holland Patent 8
Glenmore 7
North Bay 6
WKTV 5.5
Kayuta Lake 5
Newport 5
Fairfield 3.6
Oriskany Falls 3.5
Munnsville 3
Laurens 3
Bridgeport 3
Little Falls 3
Whitesboro 3
Norway 3
New Hartford 2.7
West Winfield 2.5
East Winfield 2.2
Cedarville 2
Richfield Springs 1.7
Roseboom 1.5

A big thank you to those that took the time to measure snow this morning.  It was not easy with blowing and drifting.  If for some reason you didn't make the list - I apologize - feel free to share your report in the comments section.  That brings me to the next topic of discussion - today's forecast.  The lake snows will continue today, but will fall much lighter than last night.  Flurries and light snow may bring an additional inch or two of accumulation.  The bigger story will be the wind.  Wind gusts over 30mph will likely bring poor visibility and create snow drifts.  Be careful in areas exposed to the wind - it could be quite nasty this afternoon.

The lakes eventually shut off locally tonight as dry air, a lowering inversion, and a north wind take over.  Any flurry activity will be confined to the west.  It will be another chilly night too - single digits.

Active pattern

We are heading into the tail end of winter in Upstate New York.  However, as we finish out winter over the next several weeks, we will be vulnerable to bigger storms as the transition from winter to spring begins.  The first shot of this happening takes place this weekend.  The prevailing jet stream pattern favors 2 potential storms over the next 7 days.  Whether or not they actually hit Upstate New York is a different question. 

Double low this weekend

Two storms will be part of the picture over the weekend - an inland storm & a coastal storm.  Both systems are far enough apart from each other to prevent any major interaction (often the inland storm gets sucked into the developing coastal).  Our focus therefore is on the coastal track.  So far, the models are keeping CNY on the fringe of the heavy snow - any swing closer or farther would majorly impact a snowfall forecast.  In our opinon, it's too early to make a call on this one today.  We will have a better idea on the track by tomorrow afternoon - we strive for consistency especially when making snowfall maps.

Next week

Another storm shows up on the maps for next week.  The setup look similar, but this time the inland low looks stronger.  If that's the case, the storm will likely go through all 4 stages and turn into a cutoff low over the midwest or east.  It's a favorable setup for additional snowfall.  Whether or not it turns out to be a nuisance or a shovel event is to be determined.  Remember, there's a reason why we handle one event at a time here in CNY.  The storm this weekend will help carve the path for the one next week.  We'll keep you posted on all of this of course as new information becomes available.

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  1. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Another shield of light snow is pivoting across Northern NY. This should drop in over the next few hours and continue to bring light snow to the area. Bonus snow as I like to think of it.

    Posted February 21st at 8:48 AM

  2. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    wow up to 4 icnhes here now of fluff.

    Posted February 21st at 9:08 AM

  3. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Lots of drifting here but at least 6-7”... Impossible to get a good reading on top if the hill …town park area

    Posted February 21st at 9:42 AM

  4. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Swing & a miss on both 12z NAM and GFS. Looks like we’re on the outer fringe of the snow. It’s still more than 48 hours out, so we’ll need to keep an eye on any last minute trends. A further jog east would keep us quiet this weekend. A further jog west would bring in heavy snow.

    Posted February 21st at 11:15 AM

  5. Robert (Rome):

    A good solid 6 inches of snow total from LES for Rome. How do I become a weather spotter or just report totals for you guys. Thanks.

    Posted February 21st at 11:58 AM

  6. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Robert – keep doing what your doing – post information on the blog . Tom & Denys check in on the blog every morning. You can also send an email to weather@wktv.com about 30 minutes before the broadcast.

    Posted February 21st at 12:20 PM

  7. DomTech (Oriskany):

    I just wanted to thank the WKTV weather team
    Bill, Matt & Jill, You guys are doing a great job, And all the people that blog here are so helpful.
    Im a plow contractor and Im lurking on here all the time and you all are dead on with your snow amounts..Makes my job easy..
    Thank You

    Posted February 21st at 2:22 PM

  8. Doug G (mayfield):

    Why is it every storm is tricky or complicated? with all the high tech equipment now days i would think the forecast would be a lot easier, not harder. One minute were getting a storm, next were not !! then snow or rain or mix, just seems like forecasts were a lot more accurate years ago than now. The newer and fancier the equipment the worst the forecasting gets. This seems to be worse in the winter than summer? nobody seems to have a problem in the summer. WKTV seems to do a lot better job than my local channels out of Albany. CBS, NBC and WNYT. those guys change the forecast hourly. Yesterday getting significant snow Saturday And today its going south?

    Posted February 21st at 5:37 PM

  9. Randyc12072 (Fultonville):

    I agree Doug I live in Montgomery county and I find WKTV much more accurate. It seems the European models are doing a much better job than the American models in forecasting storms.

    Posted February 21st at 7:44 PM

  10. Randyc12072 (Fultonville):

    I agree Doug I live in Montgomery county and I find WKTV much more accurate. It seems the European models are doing a much better job than the American models in forecasting storms.

    Posted February 21st at 7:44 PM

  11. Justin (Rome):

    0Z NAM in and seems a bit of a trend west, maybe wktv weather team can comment on this, waiting now on the new GFS run.

    Posted February 21st at 9:54 PM

  12. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Just got home at 10 PM, with light freezing drizzle falling here. What is causing that? Temp is 15 degrees.

    Posted February 21st at 10:08 PM

  13. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Getting freezing drizzle up here on the hill also.

    Posted February 21st at 10:25 PM

  14. Adam Musyt:

    Gordon,


    We see this when moist low-level cold air is trapped underneath a layer of drier and warmer air.


    The drier and warmer air aloft is stable, and when this particular weather situation (it happens usually once or twice a year) sets up, cloud condensation nuclei ‘CCN’ (think dust particles) are lacking.


    The water droplets have no CCN on which to "fuse" to form snowflakes.  So the droplets fall to earth as "supercooled" water droplets, making for freezing drizzle.


    About an hour ago this freezing drizzle was also observed at Syracuse airport, so it’s happening in a few places tonight.


    Tomorrow, once temperatures at the surface warm, the low level inversion will disappear and so will the threat for freezing drizzle. Still, everyone should be aware that there could be a few odd icy patches from the precipitation through daybreak.

    Posted February 21st at 10:42 PM

  15. Adam Musyt:

    Here’s a classic freezing drizzle sounding. Check out how the temperature plot at ground level (at the bottom of the chart) meets the dew point plot. When the temperature and dew point are the same temperature the air is saturated. Also check out the drier and warmer air aloft. The tiny water droplets are basically stuck close to ground level.

    Posted February 21st at 10:45 PM

  16. Matt (Rochester):

    GFS is a bust. No storm this time.

    Posted February 21st at 11:03 PM

  17. Adam Musyt:

    GFS is a bust, but the NAM is only a “near miss” for most of our area with heavy snow not far to the east. It still looks more likely than not that the steadiest and heaviest precip stays east, but I’d want to see one more model run, the 12z, to be more confident.

    Posted February 21st at 11:08 PM

  18. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Adam Thanks for the information on what is causing the freezing drizzle. Did 275 miles snowmobiling today, and had some freezing drizzle up in the Cranberry Lake area about 4PM, when we were riding across the lake.

    Posted February 21st at 11:13 PM

  19. Adam Musyt:

    18 – No problem. Glad to hear you’re enjoying the wintry weather. The folks at Price Chopper earlier today have been asking me to put in a good word to Mother Nature for Spring to arrive soon :)

    Posted February 21st at 11:21 PM

  20. Rob (Whitesboro):

    17 degrees here. Looks like the clouds hung around. Snowpack this morning is 7.5”

    Posted February 22nd at 4:57 AM

  21. Denys (East Winfield):

    13 degrees, overcast….and dare I say….calm? Glad that wind has stopped! We got another inch of snow yesterday during the day.

    Posted February 22nd at 4:59 AM

  22. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    8 degrees, clear,calm, cold, 2.6” more snow since my last report.

    Posted February 22nd at 5:00 AM

  23. Bill Rockhill (Woodgate):

    It’s 12 degrees….clear….no snow overnight….Bear Creek Road ,Woodgate, New York…...

    Posted February 22nd at 5:49 AM

  24. Bill Rockhill (Woodgate):

    It’s 12 degrees….clear….no snow overnight….Bear Creek Road ,Woodgate, New York…...

    Posted February 22nd at 5:49 AM

  25. Bill Rockhill (Woodgate):

    It’s 12 degrees….clear….no snow overnight….Bear Creek Road ,Woodgate, New York…...

    Posted February 22nd at 5:49 AM

  26. Bill Kardas:

    The window of change is closing – we’re less than 48 hours away from the coastal low & all indications are that it glances our region. 00z NAM is the outlier – 06z NAM has fallen in line with the GFS runs. Agree with Adam here – 12z is important.

    Posted February 22nd at 6:13 AM

  27. Dliddle50 (Forestport):

    Glad to be back, forgot password. You guys, and gal do a great job of forcasting, and with the number of “contacts” in a large area, make for the best place to get “what’s happening” in the real world. Keep it up.

    Posted February 22nd at 8:24 AM

  28. Matt (Rochester):

    GFS takes it to SEA.

    Posted February 22nd at 10:49 AM

  29. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    12z runs on GFS and NAM keep the heavy snow out of our viewing area associated with the coastal low.

    With that said, we have to be careful on how we communicate this information. We will get some snow out of this event. Both computer models show wrap around moisture in place Saturday evening. NAM brings 0.26” of QPF while 00z GFS spits out 0.16”. It’s not a lot, but it still needs to be addressed. Also, the high resolution WRF model shows considerably higher amounts north of the valley (more than double the numbers posted here for Rome). Based on the wind direction, the models are hinting at yet another potential upslope event. We saw a dramatic upslope event on Tuesday – & we learned our lesson. This needs to be watched closely. It’s not the same setup as Tuesday though, so don’t read too much between the lines.

    Posted February 22nd at 11:07 AM

  30. HerkimerCo. CoCoRaHS (West Neighborhood - Fairfield):

    Not sure of the forecast. I think we will have a glancing blow but I have a feeling we may take a hit! The air feels and smells like SNOW!
    Copy of todays report from 0.92 mi. NW of WKTV transmitter.:
    ipitation Report
    Station Number: NY-HR-6
    Station Name: Little Falls 7.5 NW
    Observation Date 2/22/2013 6:00 AM
    Submitted 2/22/2013 10:39 AM
    Total Precip Amount
    0.01 inches
    Notes
    Overcast, 0.2” of snow fell over the reporting period yielding 0.01” Water Equivalent (WE). Bp:30.30“hg, falling; T:15.1ºF; RH:50%; Wd:SW bearing 237º; Ws:3.6 mph; Wg:8.9 mph.
    Taken at registered location Yes
    Snow Information
    New Snow Depth
    0.2 inches
    New Snow Water Equivalent 0.01 inches
    Total Snow Depth 8.0 inches
    Total Snow Water Equivalent NA

    Posted February 22nd at 11:09 AM

  31. HerkimerCo. CoCoRaHS (West Neighborhood - Fairfield):

    Not sure of the forecast. I think we will have a glancing blow but I have a feeling we may take a hit! The air feels and smells like SNOW!
    Copy of todays report from 0.92 mi. NW of WKTV transmitter.:
    ipitation Report
    Station Number: NY-HR-6
    Station Name: Little Falls 7.5 NW
    Observation Date 2/22/2013 6:00 AM
    Submitted 2/22/2013 10:39 AM
    Total Precip Amount
    0.01 inches
    Notes
    Overcast, 0.2” of snow fell over the reporting period yielding 0.01” Water Equivalent (WE). Bp:30.30“hg, falling; T:15.1ºF; RH:50%; Wd:SW bearing 237º; Ws:3.6 mph; Wg:8.9 mph.
    Taken at registered location Yes
    Snow Information
    New Snow Depth
    0.2 inches
    New Snow Water Equivalent 0.01 inches
    Total Snow Depth 8.0 inches
    Total Snow Water Equivalent NA

    Posted February 22nd at 11:09 AM

  32. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Looking further into the data – upslope snow is much less of an issue if the 12z GFS track is correct. The coastal is too far removed to have that kind of effect.

    Posted February 22nd at 11:15 AM

  33. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Next week looks really fun :) Although 12z GFS is more west than 6z…Def. looking interesting. :)

    Posted February 22nd at 11:53 AM

  34. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Well at least the snowpack will stay for a few weeks. All the models keep us well below average. I don’t see any 70’s as we go into March this year. That was rediculous.

    Posted February 22nd at 12:44 PM

  35. Mel (Westernville):

    I hope you are right Rob- this is what the NWS BGM had on their facebook page this morning:

    Warmer than normal March temperatures forecasted…

    The Climate Prediction Center issued their new outlooks yesterday for the month of March and 3 month periods into next year. For March they give the eastern half of the CONUS a better chance of above normal temperatures. Precipitation has equal chances to be above, below, or near normal. We are not expected to be record warm like last March (+12F), but in an average March temperatures gain 10 degrees and 85 minutes of daylight between the 1st and 31st. Average monthly temperatures go back above freezing. For all the outlooks go to; (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions//multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php)

    Posted February 22nd at 1:45 PM

  36. Rob (Whitesboro):

    We’re good through the first week of March. Looks like 35/25 pretty much every day. Perhaps record cold in the south as their airmass is identical to ours.

    Posted February 22nd at 5:40 PM

  37. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    31 degrees, calm, overcast, no new snow overnight, a warm March won’t bother me at all.

    Posted February 23rd at 6:15 AM

  38. Denys (East Winfield):

    30 degrees, overcast and calm. Me either Tom! I am itching to get into my gardens! I know…. I have to wait until Memorial Day to plant….3 more months!!

    Posted February 23rd at 6:43 AM

  39. HerkimerCo. CoCoRaHS (West Neighborhood - Fairfield):

    Good morning everyone! Here is todays report: Daily Precipitation Report Edit
    Station Number: NY-HR-6
    Station Name: Little Falls 7.5 NW
    Observation Date 2/23/2013 6:00 AM
    Submitted 2/23/2013 7:49 AM
    Total Precip Amount
    T
    Notes
    Flurries, A trace of snow has fallen over the reporting period yielding a Trace of W.E.; Snowpack is 7.5”. Bp:30.00“hg; T:31.0ºF; RH:41%; Wd:W bearing 267º; Ws:3.6 mph; Wg:6.7 mph.
    Taken at registered location Yes
    Snow Information
    New Snow Depth
    T
    New Snow Water Equivalent T
    Total Snow Depth 7.5 inches
    Total Snow Water Equivalent NA Hope everyone has a great weekend!

    Posted February 23rd at 7:57 AM

  40. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    In the midst of a little burst here out of nowhere, pouring little white pellets and frizzle, making all sorts of noise!

    Posted February 23rd at 8:10 AM

  41. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    Lasted 5 minutes, tapered a bit, now pounding down again, bouncing off the cars, roads completely coated.

    Posted February 23rd at 8:29 AM

  42. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Good morning,

    Just had a brief period of heavy rain on Smith Hill with numerous reports of sleet in the valley. Expect on and off showers this morning into the afternoon as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 30s. Rain changes back to snow tonight but not expecting much in the way of accumulation.

    Posted February 23rd at 8:37 AM

  43. Anthony (Oriskany 565 ft.):

    I.m sure most of you have visited wundergound.com. For some time now, the forecasts are completely automated. It is pretty comical to see a forecast such as this, which is Sunday March 3rd:

    Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm. Fog early. High of 32F with a windchill as low as 16F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

    Posted February 23rd at 9:04 AM

  44. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Graupeling here at 33*

    Posted February 23rd at 9:16 AM

  45. Lori (Bridgeport):

    had graupel earlier at 33 degrees …temp just jumped to 36 to give me a snow / rain mix.

    Posted February 23rd at 9:50 AM

  46. Mel (Westernville):

    Light snow and 30 degrees. Truck is covered.

    Posted February 23rd at 10:01 AM

  47. sue (fairfield):

    just had a brief snow shower…..lasted maybe a min….temp 31

    Posted February 23rd at 10:08 AM

  48. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Been snowing on and off all morning with a few heavy bursts …plows been by a couple times already

    Posted February 23rd at 11:11 AM

  49. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Been snowing here but not adding up. Picked up 0.4” so far. Temp has been at 32

    Posted February 23rd at 12:07 PM

  50. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Drizzle here…temp 33 degrees.

    Posted February 23rd at 2:15 PM

  51. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Massive trough still on the long range. This is a freezer for the south. Doesn’t really effect our weather but this is epic for the south this time of year.

    Posted February 23rd at 2:21 PM

  52. Gordon (Northwestern):

    1.5” of snow today before it changed to light rain about 2 PM. Still light rain at 5 PM, with a temp. of 34.

    Posted February 23rd at 5:14 PM

  53. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    27 degrees, calm, overcast, just a trace of mist froze on the ground during the night, 0.1” of rain during the day yesterday.

    Posted February 24th at 5:58 AM

  54. Denys (East Winfield):

    27 degrees, calm and overcast. 66.7” total snowfall for the season so far.

    Posted February 24th at 6:16 AM

  55. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    28 degrees here this morning.
    6z NAM is a bit colder for this weeks storm…but still has the aweful warm nose aloft with a very strong LLJ...GFS and NAM have like 70 KTS in the 850s…I wonder if they are overdoing it…wonder if that would help a weaaker warm nose if the LLJ isnt as strong.
    Im a=off the NJ and the Philly again later this morning for Doctors…will be down there for the storm :( :( :( :(

    Posted February 24th at 6:23 AM

  56. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    Snow totals; 6.7” for the week, 25.6” so far for the month of February, and 74.6” for the season.

    Posted February 24th at 7:22 AM

  57. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Keeping an eye on some snow squalls in Western NY. The brief burst of snow will arrive this afternoon with a quick accumulation around an inch

    Posted February 24th at 8:35 AM

  58. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Seasonal total here is 73.3”. We could be in big trouble Tuesday night as boundary layer temps are cold enough for an ice storm.

    Posted February 24th at 12:00 PM

  59. Rob (Whitesboro):

    12Z Euro and Canadian are colder than the NAM and GFS. Both models dump a foot of snow on us. This is getting interesting now.

    Posted February 24th at 1:18 PM

  60. Deb (Hartwick):

    seasonal snowfall total a mere 44.75 inches.. but we still had enough on the ground to xcountry ski yesterday before the rain.. flurries in the air right now and 33 degrees. Hoping for a good snowfall later in the week.

    Posted February 24th at 1:21 PM

  61. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Interested to see if the GFS and NAM follow..given the GFS hasn’t done great this year so far. :)

    Posted February 24th at 2:30 PM

  62. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Seasonal Snowfall- 72.4”

    Posted February 24th at 3:42 PM

  63. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    46 degrees down here in NJ.

    Posted February 24th at 3:56 PM

  64. Michael (Dolgeville):

    Seasonal Snowfall Total: 49.91” inches

    Posted February 24th at 3:58 PM

  65. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Seasonal Total: 65.3”

    Posted February 24th at 6:02 PM

  66. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Seasonal total 64.5”

    Snow took a while but started to accumulate late this afternoon.

    Posted February 24th at 6:32 PM

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