Another lake effect event almost in the books...
Posted February 21st, 2013 by Bill Kardas. 67 comments
As expected, several inches of snow fell across CNY last night. As with just about all lake effect events, some places saw A LOT more than others. The norm seems to be between 2-5", which was last night's forecast. There were a few higher amounts in the mix too. Here's a look at the list:
A big thank you to those that took the time to measure snow this morning. It was not easy with blowing and drifting. If for some reason you didn't make the list - I apologize - feel free to share your report in the comments section. That brings me to the next topic of discussion - today's forecast. The lake snows will continue today, but will fall much lighter than last night. Flurries and light snow may bring an additional inch or two of accumulation. The bigger story will be the wind. Wind gusts over 30mph will likely bring poor visibility and create snow drifts. Be careful in areas exposed to the wind - it could be quite nasty this afternoon.
The lakes eventually shut off locally tonight as dry air, a lowering inversion, and a north wind take over. Any flurry activity will be confined to the west. It will be another chilly night too - single digits.
We are heading into the tail end of winter in Upstate New York. However, as we finish out winter over the next several weeks, we will be vulnerable to bigger storms as the transition from winter to spring begins. The first shot of this happening takes place this weekend. The prevailing jet stream pattern favors 2 potential storms over the next 7 days. Whether or not they actually hit Upstate New York is a different question.
Double low this weekend
Two storms will be part of the picture over the weekend - an inland storm & a coastal storm. Both systems are far enough apart from each other to prevent any major interaction (often the inland storm gets sucked into the developing coastal). Our focus therefore is on the coastal track. So far, the models are keeping CNY on the fringe of the heavy snow - any swing closer or farther would majorly impact a snowfall forecast. In our opinon, it's too early to make a call on this one today. We will have a better idea on the track by tomorrow afternoon - we strive for consistency especially when making snowfall maps.
Another storm shows up on the maps for next week. The setup look similar, but this time the inland low looks stronger. If that's the case, the storm will likely go through all 4 stages and turn into a cutoff low over the midwest or east. It's a favorable setup for additional snowfall. Whether or not it turns out to be a nuisance or a shovel event is to be determined. Remember, there's a reason why we handle one event at a time here in CNY. The storm this weekend will help carve the path for the one next week. We'll keep you posted on all of this of course as new information becomes available.
Recent Comments on this Entry
- cainiao198806 (newyork) April 24th, 9:24 PM
- Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo) February 24th, 6:32 PM
- nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.) February 24th, 6:02 PM
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