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Thanks to a viewer in West Edmeston for this beautiful sunrise photo, with sun pillar!

Well, I have to be honest. I am disappointed that some areas up north did not even come close to where they should have. That said, I am happy that a lot of other areas that have been relatively snow starved this season cashed in big time on this event. For most of us, this storm overachieved. In fact, it will go down as a record February storm. Some stats...

First, the verification map. Not as good as I would have liked, but it is what it is.

So far... 13.0" in Knappville, Fulton County takes in the cake in our viewing area, with us here on Smith Hill a close 2nd for once, at 12.9".

11.0" in Utica as of 9:30 this morning for the storm, which ties it as the 9th biggest snowstorm in February history.

9.0" yesterday, is a daily record for February 26th.

2.0" so far today ties the daily record for February 27th.

For the month, we now sit at 28.8". This puts us only 1.9" below the 10th all time snowiest February. Assuming we can sneak a little lake effect tonight and some clipper snow Friday, we'll be able to make that list.

For the season, we're now at 78.8", which actually puts us 0.8" ABOVE normal for the season to this point! Like I said in the winter outlook, sometimes all it takes is one storm to even the playing field. This was that storm. Will we end up above normal at the end of the season....possibly, but we don't know.

Lake Effect

Lake snows may try to develop tonight. Current indications (to me at least) based on a blend of our in-house model (which admittedly bit the dust with this past storm, but has been solid in LES situations), the new NAM and the NWS Buffalo WRF from 00Z points to winds being too northerly for much LES tonight. Any LES would be confined well to our west in the Finger Lakes (Mike M, it is possible that FLES develops, but I haven't had any time to look into that...though admittedly, I'd like to see winds further NNW...they're in between NNW and NW).

That said, wind direction becomes very favorable mid Thursday afternoon. The only drawback then, is the sun angle...as LES this time of year has a much more difficult time developing because of the sun angle. But, we lose the sun at 5:30 and as winds continue to lift into the WNW and eventually W, that lake band will go with it and become better organized. By Friday morning, the band ends up in the St. Lawrence Valley, but, tomorrow night there is the distinct possibility that a few more inches get squeezed out in the Mohawk Valley and points north.

So snow amounts this afternoon and tonight won't be prolific, though we've been averaging an inch every two hours here in Deerfield on less than exciting light snow. Our snow board has had an inch or more on it almost every time I go out to check!

Cold Weather

Perhaps the biggest story today is the temperature. I didn't give the models enough credit when I forecasted temperatures today. I went above them and for the most part so far, we've ended up below them. As I write this, it's 13 in Cold Brook, 10 in Old Forge and 6 in Lowville. Temperatures will not rise today. They will hold steady or fall further tonight to near or below zero. Winds will be 10-20 mph at times, so wind chills will be a serious factor. Bundle up for sure.

Thursday night could be a prolfic cold night, depending on how the LES behaves. As long as that lifts north of the Mohawk Valley by 10-12 at night, skies should clear out, winds will go light and temperatures will nosedive. I've kept the -8 we've had out there since this weekend because I think, despite the fact that the average model low temperatures are around +5, we are going to go into the freezer. Nights like Thursday night can see your temp go from 10 to -5 in an hour....fresh, deep snow, clear skies, light winds. Perfect recipie, and it may be the coldest night of our winter so far.

Friday

Friday's clipper looks nasty. It's not going to be so much that we're going to get a lot of snow with it, because at this point, 1-4" seems like a reasonable guess. But it may fall in a short period of time Friday afternoon and evening, creating some travel troubles again. This needs to be watched closely. Thunder is also a distinct possibility as this will have a ton of dynamics to work with.

Warm Up

Behind this storm, temperatures will briefly cool Saturday and then rise up on Sunday into the low 30s and Monday. Monday, with sunshine could be 50 degrees. I don't think we'll see much sunshine, so I'm keeping us in the low to mid 40s for now. But there is much potential.

Then we have to watch an extrordinarily complex setup next week that could bring us rain, snow or a mix, as an upper level system and frontal boundary wreak havoc on the East. Potential for a serious severe weather outbreak in Southeast US too. We'll see.

Thank you

Just a quick thank you to all those who have reported and continue to report totals. We really appreciate it. It helps us tremendously with nowcasting and figuring the whole puzzle out. It does not go unnoticed. Please keep sending us totals when you have them. Thank you so much again!

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Comments

laurah:

Matt: I just wanted you to know: The school closing link on the top, to the left of page still shows the February 1st school closing list. I have to go to the WKTV home page and look at the school closing list from there to get the right list. Thanks!

Posted February 27th at 10:57 AM
Bev Holland Patent:

Great post Matt! You all did a great job of covering the storm! How long have you been awake for now?!

Posted February 27th at 11:03 AM
Bev Holland Patent:

Has anyone been on the Thurway today? I have to travel to Rochester this afternoon and I was just wondering if anyone can give me an update on the road conditions. I guess the schools didn't close out in western New York today...hardly any delays.

Posted February 27th at 11:05 AM
MG(PointRock):

Just a note on your verification map -- you have 6.5 inches up in my location (NCentral Oneida), which was the number I called in to BGM at 6:00 last night. Counting the snow that's fallen since then, we're up to 8.0 for the storm, so you're not as far off as the map makes it appear.

Posted February 27th at 11:05 AM
Matt(Marcy):

Marcy got a total of 14 inches for this storm(along with 4-5 foot drifts)and another 4 inches under that from what was left of the snow before this storm bringing my season total to 83.5 inches currently moderate snow falling with a temperature of 23 and sustained winds of 15 mph

Posted February 27th at 11:12 AM
Matt(Marcy):

wind chill is 17 and gusts are up to 25mph. Matt, for the places that see the lake effect tonight how much could they see maybe 2-4 inches?

Posted February 27th at 11:15 AM
roady:

We hit 10" total this morning. Not a bad storm as alot of it melted on the treated surfaces for the first 4 hours or so.

Posted February 27th at 11:19 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

What a beautiful day for pictures here. Bright sun and fresh snow caked on everything. Its a good thing the wind has been pretty much non existant down here in my area or those branches might be dropping! Anyway another congratulations for the WKTV crew. Even the updated map last night after 6pm was spot on down here. Thanks again for you guys keeping up on the storm and getting us the best information possible. Also a pat on the back for the bloggers!! You guys on here are the best! Now, how bout some warm weather!!! (No March blizzard either!!)

Posted February 27th at 11:21 AM
Vin:

Bev in Holland Patent you might want to try the following website https://www.nysdot.gov/portal/page/portal/transportation-partners/nys-transportation-federation/travel-info-ny/winter-travel-advisory

Posted February 27th at 11:34 AM
Matt cold brook:

I had 10 inches in driveway last night where I didn't snow blow and 4 inches this morning where i did snow blow,I have 11 inches all total after the settelong.
Temp was 23 at 5 am,dropped to 18 by 9am and was 19 at 11.after spending 5 hrs behind a snowblower between last night and today,I am ready for spring

Posted February 27th at 11:35 AM
Matt HP:

The roads on 365 heading towards Rome werent very good at all this morning. Rome was just about as bad. Id assume they will stay the same.

Posted February 27th at 11:44 AM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: Tonight, less than 2-4 I think. Very tough conditions right now for LES.

MG: That 6.5" is actually a nearby neighbor of yours in Glenmore. I know you're a touch further south so you getting more makes sense...as the borderlands with Lewis and NW Oneida did not do so well in that area.

Posted February 27th at 11:50 AM
Mel (Westernville)
http://Snowpack is 27", and season to date total is 127.2":

Posted February 27th at 12:20 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Snowpack is 27" and the season to date total is 127.2"

Posted February 27th at 12:22 PM
Matt(Marcy):

thanks Matt and can we expect lake effect behind the Alberta clipper

Posted February 27th at 12:23 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: Limited...air mass will not be cold enough for significant LES...and it's going to be in and out of here over about 18 hours...fast.

Posted February 27th at 12:30 PM
Matt Lanza:

Boy, the 12Z GFS is wicked with next week's storm. A nasty severe weather event in the south, followed by possible snow and then it bowling balls up the East Coast and hits us by Wednesday. Why do I get the feeling we're going to have no shortage of weather to track over the next few days?

That said, I'm out! I'm heading home and I'll try and check in later tonight. Thanks again for all the help and updates!! Keep em coming if possible.

Posted February 27th at 12:41 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Light snow still coming down.It was moderate for a time awhile ago.A foot of snow has fallen here from the storm.

Posted February 27th at 1:48 PM
Jan:

Just talked to my son up in Jay (near Whiteface). They were calling for 15" and he only got 6".

Posted February 27th at 1:58 PM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

Have 15" now here in N.Marcy. Had to go to Waterville this morning, very surprised of the snow shortage south of New Hartford.

Posted February 27th at 2:38 PM
Matt HP:

13 inches in HP total.

Posted February 27th at 3:34 PM
Hermiker:

Matt L. - going to Myrtle Beach next week. I was looking at your post 17 - should I be concerned about golf rainout?

Posted February 27th at 3:48 PM
Ken ( South Utica -Hillcrest manor):

moderate snow again here in south utica.....big flakes, with wind....almost looks worse than yesterday out, radar does not really seem to be picking up any much of this today.

Posted February 27th at 3:54 PM
mike m (binghamton):

about 5 inches total down here, not too impressive, it was just a bit too warm down here to have impressive snowfall rates during the day yesterday, however it was almost all snow!! matt, the FLES, doesnt look to be too impressive, esp down here in bgm, i think cortland and chenango coutnies will take the brunt of it tonight, with 2-4 inches possible. and finally, the 12z gfs does indeed hit us with some good snow next tues/weds, but it is another borderline event(temp wise).......sigh

Posted February 27th at 4:10 PM
Maureen:

We have over 15 inches from this storm on Paris Hill and it is still coming down. Anthony in Marcy, how did you drive to Waterville and not notice the snow on Paris Hill?

Posted February 27th at 4:12 PM
Ken ( South Utica -Hillcrest manor):

Just wanted to update snowfall totals....as of midnight we had 11 inches and have picked up another 5.5 inches today bringing total to 16 plus here in south utica

Posted February 27th at 4:16 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Anybody following radar should use WSYR radar.Most radars aren't catching the snow since it's very low topped.This looks to be turning more into a LES event now as most of Mad/Ono/S.Ond are covered in snow.Moderate snow is falling here.

Posted February 27th at 4:23 PM
Ken ( South Utica -Hillcrest manor):

good call rob....still getting my new laptop up and running completely forget about that radar...looks like southern oneida is in for it for a while.

Posted February 27th at 4:46 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Gotta agree with comment #25, we have well over a foot (hard to measure with some blowing snow). Clinton also had 11-12 inches this morning. A squall just went through here bringing moderate snow. Temp at 13.5.

Posted February 27th at 4:51 PM
kelly:

Does anyone know how long this snow that we are getting now is going to last? or is there a radar that is picking this up? I looked at the wktv radar and there is nothing around the Mohawk area and there definatly snow coming down..

Posted February 27th at 4:55 PM
Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

About 10-12 inches here, still coming down lightly to moderately now though so ill have a storm total later.

Posted February 27th at 5:01 PM
Becky(West Leyden):

We picked up another inch today for a storm total of 11.8 inches. This brings our seasonal total 178.6 inches. The temperature right now is 9 degrees.

Posted February 27th at 5:19 PM
roady:

it could have been worse mikem. trout creek to you NE usually a snowy area went over to all rain for hours yesterday.

Posted February 27th at 6:41 PM
Matt Lanza:

Hermiker: Yeah...keep an eye on the forecast down there. The model agreement that something big is going to occur down there is excellent. The devil is in the details, as usual.

Posted February 27th at 8:51 PM
Piseco:

We ended up with 13.2 inches all together. Very cold up here tonight...7 degrees and windy

Posted February 27th at 9:07 PM
Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

Finished off with a storm total of 12.2 inches bringing our seasonal total to 81.70 inches.

Posted February 27th at 9:34 PM
Lori from Herkimer:

Matt, could you clarify the Herkimer statement please? Thanks. Also, great job with this blog and the forecast. We truly are lucky that you are in this area.

Posted February 27th at 9:41 PM
snox (westmo):

Lori i think he was answering hermikers ? on post 22

Posted February 27th at 9:54 PM
James:

Lori: I think that Matt was answering post #22. I was wondering that my self so I scrolled up.

Posted February 27th at 9:54 PM
Lori from Herkimer:

Matt, please ignore my question. I missed Hermiker's post. Sorry.

Posted February 27th at 9:55 PM
James:

Snox: you beat me to it. I guess great minds think alike! LOL

Posted February 27th at 9:56 PM
Matt Lanza:

Latest on the clipper for Friday continues to look good for 1-4" or so across the area. Best chance for 3-4" would be N/C Oneida/C Herkimer...those areas typically do well in clipper systems. 1-2" elsewhere, but snow could be very heavy for a short time...almost like a squall line. And actually, upon looking at the latest info, LES could be interesting up north Saturday...won't be tremendously heavy, but several inches for the Tug/N Country seems plausible. We'll see. Just so folks know, we'll be back to normal in the Wx Department Friday. Adam has your morning tomorrow, I'll do Noon, 5 and 6 and Adam will be back for the 11, with Jill on the 10. Main focus tomorrow will be on overnight lows outside lake clouds/snow, lake snow itself (probably not a huge deal, but worth watching) and on the clipper, with secondary focus on next week's storm.

As an aside, on Friday night, I plan to put a preliminary March-May outlook up on the blog, so look for that too! Have a great night!

Posted February 27th at 10:49 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

single band of light les hitting me now, nothing great though, and its wekening, other than that there is nothing coming off the finger lakes...kind odd?

Posted February 27th at 10:54 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

Roady, theres no doubt it could have been worse,im glad i stayed all snow, unlike trout creek. matt, the 00z gfs puts bgm and utica on the western side of incoming atlantic moisture friday night. it now shows qpf reaching .5 inches near bgm and utica, and higher east of us. this could get a little interesting, perhaps 3-6 inches by the time were all done, with 6 inches being most likely in the catskills.

Posted February 27th at 11:05 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Total QPF will be under 1/2" on Friday afternoon/night, with approximately 10:1 ratios. I would find it tough to see 6" anywhere from this. 1-4" is reasonable at this point. Trusting the NAM/historical precedence with clippers (Heavier snows north of Utica usually with this track). We'll reassess tomorrow.

00Z GFS also brings next week's storm about 300 miles further inland...it'd be rain/snow here...but at this point, just seeing it continued to be advertised is enough to keep my interest.

Posted February 27th at 11:31 PM
Stacy ( Stratford ):

Matt, Phewwwwww what a massive amount of snow yesterday! It was nice to see it come for a change, but terrible to shovel. I dont know an exact amount, but easily a foot here. Great job on your predictions with this storm. As always, thanks for all you do here, to make this blog a great place.

Posted February 27th at 11:39 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, 21z SREFS are also indicating some atlantic moisture trying to surge into utica and bgm...this is still a low probability, but i believe its possible utica and bgm get on the extreme western side of a developing deformation zone and it ends ups snowing light to moderately most of friday night and saturday morning. this is starting to look like a decent storm from ALbany east into northern mass and vermont/NH. i think the models are trying to indicate a secondary low starting to form a little faster. for example earlier today they started forming the secondary low at boston's lattitude, while now some are trying to form it at about nyc's. like you said 1-4 is deffinetly an appropriate call for now...but it needs to be monitored.

Posted February 27th at 11:51 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

(whistle....lol) the euro nails us next tues/weds. it has the barclonic zone set up right over us, then shift east. the storm tracks into eastern NC and then right up the coast, keeping us all snow;and probably alot of snow.

Posted February 28th at 1:54 AM
Pat (Fort PLain):

It's a balmy 2 degrees in good ole Fort Plain this morning.
It looks like March will be coming in like a lion.

Posted February 28th at 6:41 AM
John from cold brook:

I looked at the models and while I think they do look impressive I think it is important to keep an open mind about the possible outcome from these storms. I say this because it is still a week away and like most of the storms this winter, they have bombed out at the last minute. Just my $0.02

Posted February 28th at 6:57 AM
Matt= Cold Brook:

Here is a question for all.Why is it that this morning at 5:30 I had zero and as the sun rose,the temp dropped? It only droppe 2 degrees but i have in the past seen it drop by almost 10.The sun is out and feels great.Now if we had graas instead of snow,we would warm up nice.Have a great day.

Posted February 28th at 7:49 AM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: There is always a lag in the temperature with regard to sunrise. So you cool all night long, but just because the sun comes up, does not mean you'll instantly begin to feel its effects. So there's a pretty solid one hour additional period where temperatures can cool, even after the sun cracks the horizon. It's after about this hour that the sun begins to exert its influence on the daily weather. Conditions around sunrise are often as calm as they've been all night. Temperatures fall faster when it's clear and calm, so this would be why the temp drop can be impressive. It's no coincidence that our record lows get "warmer" each day as we get more sunlight each day.

Posted February 28th at 8:36 AM
Lisa:

When is the clipper on friday supposed to arrive into Utica area?? Evening commute time?

Posted February 28th at 12:52 PM
blog observer:

Yes Lisa, Im sure it will be right when u have to leave work. You shoud just bring your toothbrush n jammies and sit it out till saturday, thereby avoiding the every 4 second question on the weather blog "Whats this Rd like?" "How that road?" "DOT sucks"

Posted February 28th at 1:18 PM
Lisa:

Hey now, I never said anything about DOT

Posted February 28th at 1:23 PM
blog observer:

lol. someone will soon enough ;)!

Posted February 28th at 1:27 PM
Lisa:

Sometimes people are really helpful if they know road conditions

Posted February 28th at 1:38 PM
Lisa:

Blog Observer: You sound like someone I know :)

Posted February 28th at 1:39 PM
Matt Lanza:

I'm looking over the data now and doing the forecast. I'll post some thoughts on tomorrow and beyond soon.

I've updated seasonal snowfall totals. If you have an update or want to be added to the list, post here or email me at "mlanza at wktv.com"

Posted February 28th at 2:13 PM
blog observer:

Lisa: Probably not. I just read the weather blog every now and then to amuse myself. Plus I dont know any lisas. Unless thats just your alias. haha :)

Posted February 28th at 2:13 PM
Lisa:

You never know these days blog, ya never know

Anyways lets hope this clipper does not cause too much of a problem

Posted February 28th at 2:18 PM
Matt Lanza:

My initial impressions are that the start time is going to be between 3-6 PM..unfortunately right around rush hour. The saving grace in all this may be temperatures being mild. This may not accumulate on the roads much, but in many cases, unlike the Tuesday storm, we're going to go from flurries to heavy snow rather fast. The other interesting tidbit is that a few of our models give absolutely ZIP to the Valley points south (except a stripe from Cortland and Chenango Counties through the Catskills). On the other hand, all the models wallop northern Oneida and central Herkimer with almost warning criteria snows.

My feeling? I'm probably going 1-4" everywhere, but 4-8" in the N Country with this. I may back to 1-2" for the Mohawk Valley and 2-5" south of the Valley, but...I'm undecided. I'll post a map soon.

Posted February 28th at 3:04 PM
blog observer:

There is no "I" in blog observer. But there is "loser"

Posted February 28th at 3:21 PM
Debbie:

hoa Lisa I guess the "blog observer" got after you. lol. I did get a chuckle out of it. Did you think it was me. I agree with you when it is nasty it is nice to know what some of the road conditions are like.

Posted February 28th at 3:22 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Hey Matt sent you a quick email with seasonal total. Also what is up with the new poster, did he not read the rules as to being nice here?

Posted February 28th at 3:30 PM
Jim:

I dont get #63. But yes it is nice to know if there is a better route to take sometimes in this area.

Posted February 28th at 3:37 PM
Matt Lanza:

Tonight is going to be near record cold. The record tomorrow morning is -10 (from the smaller sample of Feb 29 records). I am forecasting -10 officially, but I do suspect -20 to -30 is possible up north tonight, as long as winds go calm, as forecasted.

Posted February 28th at 3:41 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Seasonal Snowfall 80.5"

Posted February 28th at 3:43 PM
Matt Lanza:

Snow forecast for tomorrow evening through Saturday morning.

Posted February 28th at 4:15 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, what are the models seeing that leads them to beleive there will be a precip minimum from rochester to bgm, they have been very persitent in its placemet, but i dont understand why they are thinking the snow just falls apart as it approaches BGM?

Posted February 28th at 4:43 PM
Matt Lanza:

Downsloping from your south. Flow is not exactly ideal for heavy snow...some models even give areas north and west of Syracuse 0 precipitation! Coupled with the fact that this is a very fast moving clipper. Plus, the best lift isn't located within the snow growth zone, so...you're not going to max out. The story gets better as you head north.

Posted February 28th at 4:53 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt,so a southerly wind of pa mtns?

Posted February 28th at 5:00 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

the NAM is indicating it alot more than the gfs, the gfs gives us a good .4 inches of qpf.

Posted February 28th at 5:01 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Basically. Large scale version of it.

Posted February 28th at 5:02 PM
Matt Lanza:

Models are likely overdoing QPF a bit. I could have gone 8-12 up north, but I'm only going 3-7 because I think it's overdone. Plus the models are probably too slow with the system...so it'll be out sooner than they think.

Posted February 28th at 5:04 PM
jon:

matt,next weeks storm could that become a major storm and is there a possibility of an all snow event?

Posted February 28th at 6:01 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jon: Definitely. It bears watching. It's going to be an especially big storm south of here I think, in terms of severe weather and impact. But it may be significant all the way up here. Just a wait and see game at this point, looking at trends and such.

Posted February 28th at 6:23 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Hmm Very Large Storm, Large Severe Outbreak, Storm riding up Coast from way done South, March time,.......Remind anyone of anything????? Hint Hint 15 years ago!!! I definately don't want that.....

Posted February 28th at 6:28 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: True! But...this is nowhere near as strong or powerful as March '93! But it could be a decent storm for someone.

Posted February 28th at 6:33 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

LOL.......I know, but it makes you wonder. Everything I have looked at still shows a West runner, but I guess there is still lots of time.

Posted February 28th at 6:39 PM
Jodi ~ (Ilion):

I hate asking this and annoying people but I have to. So I apologize ahead of time. I have to be at an appointment in Latham at 2:30, I don't know how long it will take, nor do I like driving in snow because of all the people with 4 wheel drive zipping around. Should I be OK on the way home or would it be better if I reschedule?

Posted February 28th at 6:45 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Wow someone pulled the plug out of the heater!!!!! Temperature already down to -5. Its gonna be brutal tonight.

Posted February 28th at 8:59 PM
Dana - NH:

This was a while back - looked like there were a stray LES band tried to form back off toward north of Syracuse and around Oswego, but they diminished but possibly was just an "actual" snow shower, rather than LES band. There also was a Lake Huron LES band, which was North to South but with a North and West tilt in it, but that long diminished itself. The Arctic clipper doesn't seem as impressive.

Posted February 28th at 9:50 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Been snowing lightly here for 3 hours - probab;y .25" so far. Too cold to go out and get an actual measurement.

Posted February 28th at 10:25 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

5.2 degrees here. Seasonal snow total is at 100.41" inches to date. I'll email this total as well. What a tight gradient in the snowfall map for Southern Herkimer county. It almost looks like this storm is going to be elevation dependent with higher totals on either side of the valley. I don't think snow will have any trouble sticking to roadways, as with Tuesdays storm the second it started snowing, it stuck to roads with ease up here. Who knows, maybe this clipper will surprise us and out do itself.

Posted February 28th at 10:28 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

It is weird that the meso models are giving the valley less precip.Seems like there is enough energy to give everyone 3-4".The GFS hits eastern NY pretty good.Borderline warning criteria just east of Utica.

Posted February 28th at 10:58 PM
mike m (binghamton):

down to 1.6 here, down from 2.8 just 15 mins ago....this could end up being the coldest night so far here, i beleive we have only hit -2.8 so far this winter, or something like that. i wouldnt be surprised to be at -5 or colder tomorrow morning.

Posted February 28th at 11:05 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Long Lake -15
Saranac Lake -14
Old Forge -13

Posted February 28th at 11:15 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

rob, wow that is cold lol. as for tomorrows storm i agree, there could be 6+ amounts east of utica and bgm, esp the closer one heads toward the capital district. also in a band just north of utica there could be 6+ amounts. and as matt indicated on his map perhaps some amounts approaching 6 inches in the mtns south of the valley. should be an interesting litte storm.

Posted February 28th at 11:22 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

whats even more impressive, in my opinion at least is the fact that ithaca is at -7!!! none of the models went anywhere near that cold for them...elmira is also at -2. jeff be sure to report your low tomorrow morning, im interested to see how low you can go lol

Posted February 28th at 11:25 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

West Leyden is down to -11. I was outside and saw a lot of beautiful ice pillars.

Posted February 28th at 11:29 PM
vinny(utica):

mike,any new model info on next weeks storm?i know a way away but what are latest models saying?

Posted February 28th at 11:35 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Light snow falling here. Probably why my temperature isn't dropping fast as i'm still sitting at 5 degrees. Alot of other sources seem to think widespread 3-6" inch amounts for all of NY State. NWS Albany specifically states widespread advisory level accumulations of 3-7" inches. I even found one that had the Mohawk Valley in a 6-9" inch range, lol! I'm saying 3-5" inches area wide.

Posted February 28th at 11:37 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

vinny, 00z gfs is indicating a slight shift to the east compared to the 12z run. it tracks the storm right up the appalachins into eastern ohio then into western ny...this would not be a good track for us to recieve heavy snow(we'd still get some,but a lot of rain 1st). the cmc, or ecmwf are not out yet. i wouldnt count this storm out yet...it may try to go east of the appalachins, then up the coast.

Posted February 28th at 11:42 PM
vinny(utica):

thanks mike.lets hope for a major snowstorm!

Posted February 28th at 11:47 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Michael I wouldn't be surprised if a warning was issued for Herkimer.It's a close call.Otsego county is borderline as well.I'm not waiting up to find out though.Off to bed at -1

Posted February 28th at 11:57 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

vinny, lets hope!!!

Posted February 29th at 12:00 AM
Matt Lanza:

Off to bed...latest data doesn't have me thinking any differently regarding tomorrow. Michael...I'm curious and email me if you can...who on earth is saying 6-9 for the MV? I still can't see anyone in the Valley getting more than 2"...maybe a 3" report. We'll find out tomorrow!

Posted February 29th at 12:05 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

i agree matt, i was reading bgm forecast discussion and they explained(mentioned) the Low Level SE downsloping flow(of course you told me about it first!!). i think this will be a close call for BGM, we might actually be upsloped by a SE flow. but for utica there certainly are no mtns to the NW of town.

Posted February 29th at 12:16 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Matt, I emailed you that link along with a few others I thought you would get a good laugh out of. Trust me, in no way do I think we are going to have 6-9" inches of snow. I just put that forecast out there for entertainment purposes only. I just thought it was really bizzare and wonder what their thinking is behind that forecast. What concerns me a little bit is that Rob also see's something pointing to significant accumulations east of Utica in my area according to comment#96. I guess we will have to wait until this evening to find out, but sometimes these clippers can really crank out more snow than forecasted, so I guess there is always the potential.

Posted February 29th at 12:50 AM
Becky (West Leyden):

Temperature is falling like a rock. its now down to -16

Posted February 29th at 12:51 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

3.9 degrees here with very light snow/flurries still falling. Unless skies clear completely, I don't think temps are going to plummet like they should have if it wasn't snowing. Off to bed.

Posted February 29th at 1:27 AM
Matt HP:

Matt

Can you put something together, something small on the 15th anny of the Blizzard of 93 :-)

Posted February 29th at 1:37 AM
Pat (Fort Plain):

1 degree here in the Valley. Just got back from a structure fire between Nelliston and St. Johnsville on Rt. 5. Got called out at 2:22. Will make for a long day. For the upcoming storm, he Albany stations are calling for higher snow totals for my area.
We'll see what happens.

Posted February 29th at 6:02 AM
Matt (CB):

Twas minus 5.2 at 4:30am and is now at minus 8.7 at 6:30am.We are usually the unfortunate one's that are in the bouble digits below on nights like this.Have to wait and see what happens over next hr or so.

Posted February 29th at 6:40 AM
MJ (Trenton):

-13.1 at 0630

Posted February 29th at 7:25 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

-4.2 here, iwould ahve to say this is the coldest morning yet here. bgm issued snow advisorys fro broome county, and oneida. but not for cortland county??? idk about that. well see.

Posted February 29th at 7:27 AM
Brad (Oneonta):

Advisory calling for 4-7 here in Western Catskills, just over the county border into Schoharie Cty they are calling for 6-12 with a Heavy snow warning....Heavy snow warnings posted all over the place east of here.

Posted February 29th at 8:06 AM
Abner (Holland Patent):

Was -10 in Trenton Falls this morning according to the thermometer in my car which is normally pretty accurate. By the time I drove over Deerfield Hill into North Utica it was zero (0). Think this is our last below zero degree night of the winter?

Posted February 29th at 8:19 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Saranac made it down to -29 and Long Lake bottomed out at -25.It was -7 here for a short time.

Posted February 29th at 8:35 AM
Piseco Lake:

-20 below zero early in the morning, -15 below zero at 8:00 a.m.

Posted February 29th at 8:38 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

BRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!

-16.3 degrees last night. When I went out to the car at 11pm out of work the car was just darn right frozen.

Posted February 29th at 9:26 AM
Matt Lanza:

Some AM official lows from Mesonet sites and elsewhere:

Rome: -9 (1 short of -10 record as it stands right now)
Saranac Lake: -30
Sheburne: -16
Old Forge: -24
Inlet: -21
Stillwater Res: -25
Long Lake: -25 or -26 (2 sites)
Mt. Vanhoevenberg: -23
Paradox (Near MESCAT Base): -21
Indian Lake: -23

Posted February 29th at 9:40 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

GFS gives the valley 6" of snow now.Seems pretty potent for a clipper.

Posted February 29th at 10:57 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

The NAM has even gone up a little on QPF.This is going to be interesting.Ratios should be around 12:1.

Posted February 29th at 11:15 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

You wouldn't know from just looking outdoors that we are going to get a storm. I can't find a cloud in the sky. But Snow Advisories are in place for Oneida County and points east. Temperature did not make it below zero here this morning. At my other location a mile away, I had 4 degrees at 5a.m., but when I went to bed at 2a.m., it was 3 degrees. I almost 100% sure it didn't go below zero here, but I am headed out to check my other thermometer to confirm it.

Posted February 29th at 11:23 AM
Matt Lanza:

While the models do look better for a bit more snow in the Mohawk Valley this morning, the GFS is 3-6" and the NAM is no more than 2-4" through tomorrow morning, I think Bill's snowfall map is still great at this point.

Posted February 29th at 11:26 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Only got down to zero here as well up on the hill. Been a beautiful bright sunny morning but the high clouds are starting to work their way in.

Posted February 29th at 12:01 PM
Stacy (Stratford):

I received a weather alert in my email from the new service (Storm Tracker) offered through WKTV, stating Fulton County was under a Heavy Snow Warning. When I clicked the link for additional information it too states Expect total accumulations for the day of 6-8 inches. I live in Northern Fulton County, maybe thats where the indifference lies. Any information would be helpful. Thank you.

Posted February 29th at 12:03 PM
Matt Lanza:

Stacy: That's the NWS forecast, not ours. The reason you're getting that is because you are under a warning put out by the NWS. There will always be some differences in what we're forecasting and what NWS says. But you are indeed under that warning, which is going to be expanded to the rest of Valley (Herkimer, Montgomery, S Fulton) today. We'll see what happens.

Posted February 29th at 12:20 PM

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