Cold, cold, cold. That's all you can say. This is not the worst air mass we've ever seen. And some people might say it might just be hype. But this is the coldest air mass we've seen here since January 2005. It just looks nasty. Here's the skinny on the cold and Lake effect.
First of all, we have cold to deal with. To the right, you can see forecasted wind chill values for tomorrow morning. That isn't necessarily exactly how it will play out, but that's a forecast at this time. Cold air continues to blast through here, and temperatures will drop with continued blustery conditions tonight. Blowing and drifting snow will be the main story regarding that. Lake snows will develop, but should quickly shift west and then quickly diminish toward morning. Accumulations should be light.
Cold temps will dominate Wednesday. Wind chills may subside a bit. But temperatures will be hard pressed to get much above 5 degrees.
Tomorrow night poses another forecasting challenge. That clipper is now progged to pass way south of here (which makes sense given the depth of the cold), bringing us nothing more than a few clouds and some flurries. The question becomes: When do the clouds get here. If we have a few hours of clear skies after dark, expect temperatures to plummet to -10 or lower in a short time, with most lows in the negative double digits. If the clouds edge in here, we'll see only slightly milder conditions, with most lows above -10 degrees, except in the Adirondacks. Winds should stay light through Thursday morning.
Then on Thursday, a reinforcing shot of cold will arrive right around Midday. There will be a lack of moisture, so while we could see another squall line, conventional wisdom would suggest otherwise. Right now, some flurries and a wind shift are what I expect. Because I'm anticipating a colder night Wednesday night, I took Thursday's high temperature down considerably. That just means we have more to overcome to get to 10 degrees. Model guidance was below 10 and I even undercut that some more to account for model biases. So up through Thursday evening, accumulating snow looks to be at a premium.
Thursday night will be a very tough forecasting challenge. The question becomes Lake Ontario. The parameters are in place for a potentially brief, but nasty LES event (we are at threshold values all the way up 20,000 feet to 500 mb). However, the models are completely bored by this. Why would this be? Well, for one, the air mass is Arctic...and dry. There's a lot of sinking air and a lot of turbulence in the wind directions (the streamlines show a lot of shifts). I'm not sure we can get much going unless the lakes do it themselves. So through mid-overnight Thursday things (at this point) are locked down, except for some occasional flurries and squalls west of here.
Then, the winds shift and things change. They will go westerly Friday. This opens up the length of Lake Ontario. So while the Mohawk Valley and points south may see minimal snow, the Tug Hill may get walloped. I think we're going to see an intense band of snow setup in that area Friday morning and sit for much of the day. This would primarily in Lewis County and northern Herkimer County. This may even be too far north for most of northern Oneida County. That's my gut feeling right now. This could easily change though. More on the lakes below.
Thursday night and Friday will be bitter cold, with some nasty morning wind chills. If lake clouds stay away Thursday night, -15 to -30 will be the average temperature, with -30 to -40 degree wind chills (3-6 mph can hurt a lot in that air). If lake clouds move in, -5 to -15 will be the average, with isolated -15 to -35 readings in the Adirondacks. Wind chills will still be nasty. Highs on Friday will probably not get above zero in most locations, with a potentially colder night in spots Friday night (especially where we will have seen lake clouds Thursday night).
Beyond that, we stay locked in a chilly pattern. I generally followed the European model's forecast heading into next week, with a few chances of snow showers and temperatures a good 5-10 degrees below normal.
Great Lakes Ice
Regarding lake effect, and I posted this in the comments section in the previous entry. To the right is a map of the Great Lakes and their ice cover as of yesterday, January 12th. Red indicates a lot of ice. White indicates no ice. By this time next week, Georgian Bay will be basically iced over. Much of Huron will be iced over, and Lake Erie should have near 100% ice coverage. What does this mean? It doesn't mean the end of lake effect. It means that the amount of lake moisture available for both lake effect and to aid in "juicing up" clippers is going to be cut down dramatically. Thus, lake effect season, as we traditionally know it, may be done for the season by next week. Again, that doesn't mean we can't get snow off the lakes. We will, but the odds of generating mega-bands or major connections is cut down dramatically. Back in February 2007, it was such a long lasting, solid event because the lakes were ridiculously above normal without much ice at all. Click here to view the ice coverage we saw heading into that period. While on Huron and Georgian Bay, it may not look dramatically different, there is a rather significant surface area that was ice free then, compared to now. A few weeks after that cold snap? So we have a ways to go for sure, but you will see some dramatic changes within a week.
Comments
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Jimmy (New Hartford):
Matt: Can I change the range of temps my weather station can accurately recieve. It only goes down to -4. Thanks
Posted January 13th at 9:23 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
I think this lake band tonight will get cranking for awhile. Looks about 270 right now. It‘s definitely a good but brief set-up.
Posted January 13th at 9:25 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Jimmy: I find that weird. I‘m not sure how they would do that to you and how you could fix it honestly. :-/ Keep digging in the manual if you can and playing with the settings on the thermometer.
Posted January 13th at 9:32 PM
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mommyof3boys (ilion):
ok guys its now 24 degrees here in ilion and dropping i was wondering ROB is the lake band that they were talking about on wktv the one that moved through or is it still going to move through my area (the valley) it did snow for a few here nothing big but the winds are NASTY right now!!! ok guys i will keep you up to date on the temps here in ilion as long as they change i will be posting about even 30 to 60 minutes ok STAY WARM EVERYONE
Posted January 13th at 9:34 PM
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Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):
What do you have for a weather station Jimmy?
Was out driving from Sauquoit when the front came through. Not very fun driving.
You may see my site disappear for a bit. My host has moved it to a new server for some reason, and the DNS stuff needs to resolve itself.
Posted January 13th at 9:35 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
I got a cheap 60$ one and it goes to -25 (supposely). Mercury is good to -40 so one of those will work for now.
Posted January 13th at 9:36 PM
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Matt (HP):
Jimmy, I know you werent asking me, but I‘m pretty sure (99%) thats a no. Temperature range was the big thing I was looking for when I bought mine. The only other idea is do you have lithium batteries in it because alkaline dont work well below zero.
Posted January 13th at 9:38 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Mommy the lake band is currently developing off the eastern shore of L. Ontario. The line that just went through was the arctic front. This lake band will be interesting to watch for a few hours.
Posted January 13th at 9:39 PM
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mommyof3boys (ilion):
THANKS ROB so does this mean we might have another chance at some more snow later on tonite!!! ok guys going to go and get something to eat and watch SVU for right now i will be in a little later to update you guys on the temps ok again thanks ROB and STAY WARM
Posted January 13th at 9:46 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Jimmy: Yeah most thermometers do have a range on them. I was shopping around for one and I never ended up buying another one because the lowest most would go was -4 just like yours. I was glad I read the back of the package and found that out before I purchased it. I think you will find that better brands like Oregon Scientific and Lacross will give you a better range. I have a Radio Shack digital thermometer that must be ten years old, but it is extremely accurate. I don‘t know the range on it but I know that it has registered at least -20 below back in Jan of 2004 and as high as 98. They don‘t even make this model anymore, but if I had to go with one I would choose either brand I mentioned above.
Posted January 13th at 9:47 PM
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Amy (Salisbury):
Temp is 24.8 here down about 6 degrees since around 8:00.
Jimmy… I say switch to lithium. The directions for my thermometer said alkaline battery temp range is -4 to 140 but lithium is -22 to 140. Good Luck!
Posted January 13th at 9:47 PM
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Jack Dolgeville:
Wind is fierce in centre of village. I am expecting -25 belowwind chill.
As for thermometer issue, it seems that most products arent made that well. My wind gauge never seems fully accurate, and I use an old mercury thermometer when below 0 is expected.
Needless to say, the depth of this cold front is scary stuff.
Posted January 13th at 9:58 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Rob: Definitely, but there‘s a very aggressive southerly push to it. It won‘t sit over one area for too long, but it could drop 1-2” or so in a short time, especially given the fluff factor.
Posted January 13th at 10:00 PM
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Bob (Cooperstown):
Wicked winds temp 24.8 Barometer 29.77
light snow about an inch on the ground.
Just came back from a class, White out conditions on the hill tops between here and Schenevus. Had pull over and stop a couple of times. I can‘t believe trees have not come down. Night all ..Stay warmPosted January 13th at 10:00 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is 10…...Winds are WNW at 9 mph
Posted January 13th at 10:06 PM
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Heather(Mohawk):
temps went from 33 last time i posted to 27 now traffic moving ok both roads
Posted January 13th at 10:07 PM
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Jimmy (New Hartford):
Thanks to all. I will be getting another one soon but this one was a gift. I need to save up but in the meantime I will get some Lithium batteries. Temp has dropped 10 degrees in 2 hours from 34 to 24
Tony: Its a STX 7500
Its a cheapy but good for my purposes other than the temp range. .Posted January 13th at 10:08 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Becky…you‘re heading below zero by 12-1 AM. Impressive drop there.
Posted January 13th at 10:13 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Jimmy they all have a temp range. My vantage pro 2 has a range of -40° to +150°F
I don‘t believe there is way to change the range. its a firm ware problem.
Posted January 13th at 10:13 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Matt: I can believe that…..I‘ve dropped almost 20 degrees in 4 hours.
Posted January 13th at 10:16 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
LES band is quickly moving south
Posted January 13th at 10:27 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
19 here. LES is on the doorstep.
Posted January 13th at 10:27 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is now 9
Posted January 13th at 10:34 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Moderate snow…big flakes.
Posted January 13th at 10:39 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Yeah…Were still getting light to sometimes moderate snow here too
Posted January 13th at 10:46 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is dropping like a lead balloon….It‘s down to 8 now
Posted January 13th at 10:49 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Mod-Hvy snow here on the Hill!
Posted January 13th at 10:49 PM
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Jimmy (New Hartford):
The band is just north of here, temp down to 22.
Posted January 13th at 10:50 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Jimmy: How much did you get today?
Posted January 13th at 10:53 PM
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Jimmy (New Hartford):
Matt: Not much, no accumulation during the day and about an inch from the front. I will have an official total tommorow after this band drops south. Visibilities dropped very low for a while earlier.
Posted January 13th at 10:58 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
I forgot about the snow measurement. This is an estimation of many spots. My average snow amount is 5.3 inches.
Posted January 13th at 10:59 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Light snow falling here, it seems like a tiny light band has snuck down the valley.
Posted January 13th at 11:26 PM
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heather (Mohawk):
stopped snowing roads are ok again temp 23
Posted January 13th at 11:30 PM
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mike m ( binghamton):
moderate snow here now, 21 degrees. picked up about .75 inches of snow so far today. seems to be some squalls developing to my NW.
Posted January 13th at 11:31 PM
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Barb (LC):
Snowing very heavy here..and the wind is up again. Matt, think I will apply for the job in Australia….don‘t know which I would like more…the money or the beach.
Posted January 13th at 11:33 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
temp is down to 6
Posted January 13th at 11:35 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is down to 5 degrees. The rate of drop is starting to slow down.
Posted January 14th at 12:07 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Clouds are really starting to thin out. I can see the Moon through them very well. Once the thin clouds are gone….how fast and how far the temp drop is anybody‘s guess.
Posted January 14th at 12:15 AM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Wind Chill at Rome down to +4, Watertown‘s WC is down to -12! Old Forge (hedging a bit) to -8 wind chill.
Posted January 14th at 12:15 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is down to 4. The winds are 8-17 mph with gust near 24 mph.
Posted January 14th at 12:19 AM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Heavy snow here with a temp of 17.2 degrees.
Posted January 14th at 12:23 AM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Becky: With the gusts, your wind chill is -18!
Posted January 14th at 12:27 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is now 3.
Matt: I don‘t doubt it. I went out with the dogs…..We all made it a quick trip ;-)
Posted January 14th at 12:37 AM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Ugh…just brutal. I just hope the actual forecast verifies…cold as it is regardless, I just want to make sure it‘s right.
Posted January 14th at 12:44 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is down to 2
Posted January 14th at 12:51 AM
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Heather(Mohawk):
well last post for tonight sister in law just came and took her kids said wind is horrible she said coming west on thruway wind was pulling the car all over traffic moving though i think my thermometer is broken it says 20 outside but i dont know its cold
Posted January 14th at 12:52 AM
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Matt (HP):
Down to 12 here.
Posted January 14th at 1:14 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is now zero
Posted January 14th at 1:16 AM
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Matt (HP):
Lake looks like it shut off, Id imagine this will help temps plummet`
Posted January 14th at 1:16 AM
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mike m ( binghamton) :
drifting snow a problem on the back roads out there, be cautious. looks like another band of snow moving in my direction.
Posted January 14th at 1:17 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
At this time, the station figures the rate of fall is 4.6 degrees per hour.
Posted January 14th at 1:18 AM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
That is steep. Heading to bed, as I‘m on standby if schools close tomorrow. That wind is whipping….love falling asleep on nights like this! Keep the temp posts coming through the night if anyone will be up!
Posted January 14th at 1:30 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
temp is – 1
Posted January 14th at 1:39 AM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
12.4 degrees here
Posted January 14th at 1:41 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
The temp is now -2 . I Just looked outside…The clouds have moved off.
Night allPosted January 14th at 2:02 AM
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Matt (HP):
Just dropped into the 8.0 area
Posted January 14th at 2:06 AM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
I knw we have alot of cold to go threw and little clippers here or there but i just looked at the long range from the euro and around monday looks real intersting..
Posted January 14th at 2:14 AM
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mike m ( binghamton):
10.1 here now. im off to bed
Posted January 14th at 2:55 AM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
4.6 degrees here and dropping steadilly!
Posted January 14th at 3:57 AM
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Clifford (Western Otsego County):
It‘s above zero here. Just checked
, we sit at 3 degree‘s. Since yesterday afternoon, we received 3” of fresh snow. Still some flurry activity outside along with blowing snow.Posted January 14th at 4:14 AM
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WINTER (Forestport):
Zero degrees. … 30° was the hi temp last nite before the big drop. There is about 3’’ of snow from last nite also.
Posted January 14th at 5:01 AM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
-11 right now. It is brutal out there.
Posted January 14th at 5:37 AM
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Heather (Mohawk):
cold cold cold oh my my thermometer is above zero its 9 light cloud cover i traffic is moving on both roads let the dog out and its windy still too these poor little kids have to walk
Posted January 14th at 6:18 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp here is also -11
Posted January 14th at 7:13 AM
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WINTER (Forestport):
It’s down to minus 7°.
Posted January 14th at 7:19 AM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
Looks like the cloud cover down here saved us from going to brutal last night, current temp is the low at 0 degrees. The wind was a bit chilly this morning but it is slowing dying off as well.
Posted January 14th at 7:22 AM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is still going down it is now -12 and winds are 4 mph.
Posted January 14th at 7:26 AM
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Jimmy (New Hartford):
Had an overnight low of .9 degrees. Current temp has been dropping and is at 1.6 degrees.
Posted January 14th at 7:39 AM
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RS (Barneveld):
Had a low of -7 overnight, was -5 when I left for work around 0600. Maybe 1” of new snow, wind blew it all around.
Posted January 14th at 7:57 AM
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Barbara (Laurens - Rt 205):
I don‘t have overnight readings, but at 6:00am it was 3 degrees, fell to Zero by 7:15am when I left the house.
I have a friend in Bemidji MN. Yesterday their low was -36, high was -9. That‘s headed our way!
Posted January 14th at 8:06 AM
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Andy (West Exeter):
I had a temp of 0 degrees when I left this morning.
Posted January 14th at 8:54 AM
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Matt (HP):
Low was -5.3 here, its up to -2.1 now
Posted January 14th at 9:37 AM
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John (Ohio):
minus 10 at 7am this morning, 3 inches of snow last 24 hours
Posted January 14th at 10:08 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Got down to 1 degree last night. Picked up 1.0” of fresh snow.
Posted January 14th at 10:38 AM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
Well it looks absolutely gorgeous outside. Of course I am sitting in the warmth, and with a current temperature of 5 degrees it has got to be bitter out.
Posted January 14th at 10:48 AM
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Brad (Oneonta):
6 degrees for a low this morning and temp right now is 10 degrees. Its cold, but far from brutal here…...
Posted January 14th at 11:08 AM
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Anthony (N.Marcy):
Had -5 this morning … 850’ elevation
Posted January 14th at 11:17 AM
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randy Vitullo :
Friday morning looks absolutely frightening. Clear skies lends an average of -15 to – 30 for CNY? Any wind with that? YIKES!!!!!!
Posted January 14th at 11:24 AM
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Amy (Salisbury):
Overnight low was -9.6 just before sunrise. We might have picked up an inch or so of snow, wind blew it all over!
Posted January 14th at 11:29 AM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Randy: Not too much in the way of wind, but when you‘re talking temperatures that cold, even light winds can be dangerous. Official model guidance tomorrow night is -7 now. -15 or lower will be a challenge to achieve officially, but -10 should be simple as long as lake clouds stay away. That‘s the main wild card.
Posted January 14th at 11:40 AM
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PISECO:
BRRRRR!
Posted January 14th at 12:24 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp up to -3…...Think I will spend the afternoon by the pool :)
Posted January 14th at 12:39 PM
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Andy (West Exeter):
BRRRRR it is 3.9 here.
Posted January 14th at 12:41 PM
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Donna (In the valley):
Becky: Hope that pool is indoors!!!! :)
Posted January 14th at 12:49 PM
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Jan:
Matt I just sent you a beautiful picture my husband took up in Jay New York today. They only have about 8 inches on the ground. Our son lives there.
Posted January 14th at 1:01 PM
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Mike S (Port Leyden - in Turin):
For as far as the BUF WRF can go without actually being in the event, it looks good for LES tomorrow night for Oswego/Lewis counties! (Although too far north for me)
Posted January 14th at 1:53 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is now -1. The overnight low was -12.7 at 8:05 am
Posted January 14th at 2:00 PM
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Jess (Utica):
Hey all,
If the temps tomorrow morning are high negatives (lets say the low teens), will the schools close? I‘m afraid to let my son go out to wait for the bus in weather like that and my car is in the shop. Thanks! **~*warm wishes to you all~*~*~*Posted January 14th at 3:10 PM
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Jeff:
Matt,
Extended forecast models, anything catches your eye on up-coming storms?
Posted January 14th at 3:11 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is 1.
Posted January 14th at 3:19 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Jeff: Nothing too exciting. Slightly warmer weather next week. But no major storms at all on the horizon. Bitter cold = dry usually. Some question marks in the longer range regarding whether we see a return to cold or a bit of a shift in the pattern. Next 7 days should all average below normal though I think.
Posted January 14th at 3:24 PM
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Abner (Holland Patent):
Okay, I‘ll ask. Where are all those people who cry GLOBAL WARMING today? I know we try to keep things serious on this blog….but I had to put this out there.
Posted January 14th at 3:46 PM
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Cindy:
Hi all, I was just reading a weather blog and came across this about the snow tonight and wondered if it really was true. Keep warm!!!
The snow will accumulate faster than normal due to unusually high snow ratios. I am told by the meteorologists on the Operations floor today that snow ratios could be three times higher than normal because of the extremely cold temperatures in the lower atmosphere. This means that if you got 1 inch last time, you‘ll get 2-3 this time, even though the storm‘s strength is the same.
Posted January 14th at 3:51 PM
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Jeff:
Matt,
Thank You
Posted January 14th at 4:05 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Abner: Not to degenerate this into a downward spiral, but there have been a few interesting stories lately…this time by people that are a little too extreme on the anti-global warming bandwagon about many things. Arctic sea ice is doing quite well though right now. Remember though…one or two winters does not a climate make! So take a lot of these stories you hear (on both sides) with a grain of salt. People are too into instant gratification…climate is not something we can figure out based on 20-40 years of data.
Cindy: Most of that moisture will pass to our south. Anyone south of the Thruway could see 1-3” tonight. North of the Thruway, probably not much.
Posted January 14th at 4:07 PM
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Brian (Edmeston Center):
Also not to degenerate the situation, I humbly submit:
Let‘s not forget that Aerosol Cooling has done a great job of masking Global Warming.There is just a lot of aerosol in the air lately.
Anyway, on slightly more serious note, global warming theorists don‘t argue their case upon the odd out oscillations of the jet stream.
What exactly does cause the jet stream to bulge? Actually we saw a lot of that occurring in May 2008 – one cold spring. Too many factors to name.
BTW- A new study out today on 2008 found it was the coolest year on record, since 2000.
Posted January 14th at 4:50 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is heading back into the basement. It‘s currently -1. I have a little light air; the winds are WNW at 1 mph.
Posted January 14th at 4:55 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
I Wanted to post this about wind chill and frostbite. when the windchill is 0°F to -19°F frostbite is very possible. Exposed skin can freeze within 5 minutes.
Windchill in the -20°F to -69°F range makes the possibility of Frostbite very likely. Exposed skin can freeze within 1 minute. Outdoor activity becomes dangerous, So remember to dress in layers and make sure to cover all exposed skin.Posted January 14th at 5:12 PM
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
Matt
I had 2 inches of snow in the driveway again this morning. I plowed the driveway this morning.The temperature here is +5* right now.
Posted January 14th at 5:51 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Jeff: Regarding the longer range, I‘ve had more time to look at things. Beyond the cold, a clipper for Sunday may bring a few inches of snow (nothing major at this point, but a widespread 2-4+ is possible). Things get VERY muddy early next week…some models indicate cold trying plunge back in (not as intense). Others, say, let‘s break down the pattern completely. It‘s entirely possible we‘re talking above normal temperatures by the end of next week, but that‘s a long way off. We need to resolve the pattern first. But that western ridge really wants to break down.
To give you an idea that changes are indeed occurring…. Parts of Alaska, which were dealing with -60 or lower last week, are now in the +30s! That is a sign of bitter cold here, and a sign that the pattern is indeed changing.
Posted January 14th at 6:48 PM
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Heather (Mohawk):
temp 14 with little to no wind I am afraid to go outside and see thats just opening my patio door lol from there it also looks like a cloud cover . got to clean house and get kids ready for bed report again later on
Posted January 14th at 6:52 PM
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Matt (HP):
Matt L,
I‘m a strong believer in Climate Change. The idea that our climates will basically fluctuate over time but Global Warming is the catalyst in the equation causing everything to change more rapidly. I‘ve noticed in the last few years that this has been causing some rather interesting circumstances through the past few years.
Posted January 14th at 7:07 PM
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Jimmy (New Hartford):
14.0 degree high temperature today
7.2 degree current temp
1.4 inches of snow last nightPosted January 14th at 7:24 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is -2
Posted January 14th at 7:28 PM
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WINTER (Forestport):
… +3°…Not that cold. Because of too much cloud cover ???
Posted January 14th at 8:32 PM
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Matt (HP):
3 here as well… Waiting for temps to start failing
Posted January 14th at 8:39 PM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
We‘ve got way to much cloud cover to have temperatures fall like a rock like last night.
Thing is with how cold it‘s going to get by AM, the littlest breeze will make the windchills drop. Just to see how cold it can get and how long frostbite will take, I‘d recommend taking a look at the windchill chart.
Posted January 14th at 8:43 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
You guys aren‘t going to see temps drop tonight. As others have mentioned, and as I described at 5…clouds are going to really cap a drop tonight. We should end up near zero officially by morning. But, it‘s going to be tough to get there. There are some holes in the clouds here and there, and that will dictate who sees the coldest conditions tonight. This will be less of an issue tomorrow night (but still an issue under lake clouds).
Posted January 14th at 8:47 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
temp is down to -3. .....very slow temperature drop.
Posted January 14th at 9:32 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Light snow has developed here.
Posted January 14th at 9:37 PM
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Jimmy (New Hartford):
6.1 degrees here.
Posted January 14th at 9:44 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Nifty effect apparent on Lake Ontario tonight. We have a tea-kettle effect going on, where winds are too light to really generate inland lake snows, but the conditions are still in place for LES. So a band forms in the center of the lake, and is pushed around by local effects. For instance, tonight, we have light easterly flow in advance of our clipper. So that shunts the LE band west. Then the western part of the LE band gets twisted around by light winds blowing off the land into the lake (a land breeze). So you get almost a hook-like feature at the far western edge of the band…it‘s like a mini-area of low pressure that forms (we call this a “mesolow.” A similar feature is apparent on Lake Michigan, and was also seen earlier tonight on Lake Erie. Gotta love the lakes!
Posted January 14th at 9:49 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
To add, it‘s called a tea-kettle effect, because basically the lake is “boiling,” with snow. ;)
Posted January 14th at 9:50 PM
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Heather(Mohawk):
it a chilly 12 here no snow light wind
Posted January 14th at 10:32 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is now -2
Posted January 14th at 10:36 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
I dunt if it just me or what but i actually liked the pattern we where in before this 1 came about.. The zonal flow allowed series of quick moving hard punch storms with seasonal temps.. This pattern just brings in cold air ,alot of week clippers and boots all coastal chances out to sea.
Posted January 14th at 10:40 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Mike I definitely agree. That lake band really hammers the Barnes Corners area Friday. I‘ve never seen the their yardstick go over 4.5’ but I think we will by this weekend. It‘s been stuck at 3 degrees here since 6PM.
Posted January 14th at 10:46 PM
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Rick:
Matt can you tell me if the wind chill will be -19 or more tomorrow morning..
Posted January 14th at 10:48 PM
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
It‘s just starting to snow here now
The temp is 4*
Posted January 14th at 10:50 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Rick: No sir. Not even close. Maybe on Friday morning.
Posted January 14th at 11:00 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Rob/Mike: If you‘re a snow lover, you bet this is frustrating…all the cold in the world, but horrible for storminess. But, fortunately, we have enough snow on the ground to sustain any drought we may have for a few days!
Posted January 14th at 11:02 PM
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Rick:
So like -1 or around there
Posted January 14th at 11:07 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Rick: No more than a couple degrees colder than the air temperature, which at this point is slated to be 0 to -5 in most areas.
Posted January 14th at 11:22 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
2.1 degrees here.
Posted January 15th at 12:10 AM
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Matt (HP):
Finally hit zero, sat at 2 for about 3 hrs
-12 in Saranac Lake right now, -6 for the high tomorrow. NWS forecasts -30 for them tomorrow night.
-22 on Mt Washington. Wind Chill of -56.
Forecasted low tomorrow night….-36.Posted January 15th at 1:59 AM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
-2.4 degrees here.
Posted January 15th at 3:59 AM
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WINTER (Forestport):
… -3°…
Posted January 15th at 5:01 AM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
-4 and dropping still…..
Posted January 15th at 6:59 AM
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piseco:
-14*f light dusting of snow on car. clear skys
Posted January 15th at 7:13 AM
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John (Ohio):
-15 at 7:05 this morning in Town of Ohio. Neat “cloud” over part of the city this morning, viewable coming down Deerfield Hill, due to the snowguns on Val B.
Posted January 15th at 7:51 AM
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Joe:
Matt…...With this low temperatures coming will the wind chill be in effect for the morning for friday.. And -2 degress here in deerfield
Posted January 15th at 7:57 AM
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Amy (Salisbury):
-9.4 this morning
Posted January 15th at 8:22 AM
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randy Vitullo :
Good morning all. What is the WKTV team thinking in terms of wind speed and wind chill for tomorrow morning? I know it will depend a lot on the cloud cover for the actual air temps., but assuming no cloud cover, what are you expecting? And, what are you expecting with cloud cover?
Posted January 15th at 8:34 AM
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randy Vitullo :
With regards to 134, the time frame is between 5 AM and 7AM.
Posted January 15th at 8:40 AM
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Barbara (Laurens - Rt 205):
Temp was -2 at 6:15am, down to -5 by 7:15am.
Posted January 15th at 8:41 AM
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Adam Musyt:
Randy,
-10 to -20 range seems fair for wind chill index through tomorrow morning for the Mohawk Valley, with -12 to -24 for Northern Oneida County.
We‘ll luck out though because it is going to be downright disgusting (WCI values of -30 to -35) on the Tug with locally higher winds in the heart of the lake effect.
Posted January 15th at 8:45 AM
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Adam Musyt:
On cloud cover, probably where you are will be at least partially clear for most of the night. Around daybreak we might begin to see some more clouds as the lake effect that we expect tonight from Onondaga through Madison and far SW Oneida begins to move northward. Those lake clouds (and eventually heavier snows, once they reorganize) will park on the Tug during the day.
Posted January 15th at 8:48 AM
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Andy (West Exeter):
Adam The temp at my house was -1 degrees.
Posted January 15th at 9:00 AM
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Adam Musyt:
Thanks for the reports, Andy and everyone.
Posted January 15th at 9:00 AM
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Gordon (Northwestern):
Not much of a cold snap at my house yet. Was -4.2 this morning, and -5.6 yesterday morning. I had far colder temperatures back in early Dec. with -14.8. Last winter I had a low of -23.7, and the year before ( 2006-2007) of -21.8. When is the real cold temperatures talked about going to get here? Well its time to go out for a snowmobile ride.
Posted January 15th at 9:33 AM
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Randy Vitullo :
Thanks Adam.
Posted January 15th at 10:06 AM
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Laura (Paris Hill):
I have to agree with Gordon, so far it‘s not been that cold. Hit -3 overnight. Not exactly balmy but not as cold as I feared. Maybe tonight will change my mind?
Posted January 15th at 10:53 AM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
We really have “lucked” out with regard to the cold thus far. We‘ve gotten some more cloud cover than was predicted coming in. The big test will be the next two nights. Lake clouds and any other clouds…if we clear out, we know what‘s going to happen. Watertown, for instance on Wednesday morning. Between 6 and 8 AM fell from -8 to -26 degrees. Why? Skies were clear and winds went calm. That‘s the biggest issue we have to overcome here….clouds and wind. If we do, pervasive -10 to -20 readings are likely, with the coldest spots well under that.
Posted January 15th at 11:02 AM
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Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):
Seems as the 6-9am temp drop is pretty large the last few days. My lowest temps have occurred at almost 8 and 9am yesterday and today.
Posted January 15th at 11:34 AM
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Ralph L (New Hartford ( 900 ft )):
Great Visible Satellite view of 75 % Frozen Lake Erie. Lake Ontario Looks to be only 15 % Frozen. If we get a good Nor Easter in the next 2 months I think we can still see some good lake effect from Ontario. We will see.
Posted January 15th at 12:58 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Ralph: Erie‘s done. It‘s probably close to 100% frozen now, and any unfrozen territory will contribute a negligible amount to lake effect. Ontario will be able to sustain itself, as it won‘t freeze over. So it will remain a player, but the question is, how much will the loss of added moisture from Erie (not so much) and Georgian Bay (potentially significant) affect who can get hit hard?
Posted January 15th at 3:43 PM
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Brad (Oneonta):
Did someone say we are expecting snow on Sunday? Is it Sat night/Sun?
Posted January 15th at 4:01 PM
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kathy:
are we gonna get any snow south of the mohawk valley tonight
Posted January 15th at 4:25 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Posted January 15th at 5:14 PM
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Teri (Deerfield):
NO WAY!!!!!!! I am so sad to see you go Matt. You are so talented. I was just screaming at you when you made your announcement! You will be missed dearly. I wish you all the best.
Posted January 15th at 5:27 PM
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Brian:
Hi Matt, do you think there might be a bust with temps? It just looks like the real cold temperatures are not making it to far south.
Posted January 15th at 5:29 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Thank you Teri. In case folks missed at 5… I (sadly, but optimistically) am going to depart Central New York in a week or so. I have been offered an amazing opportunity in Los Angeles to work outside of television as a meteorologist for one of the largest utility companies in the nation. It was a VERY difficult decision, with a ton of personal and professional considerations, and in the end, my fiance and I decided it was for the best. I will be sure to keep in touch with everyone, and obviously until I leave, I won‘t be getting senioritus or slacking. I‘ll save the sappy stuff for another time. But I hope everyone understands, and also realizes they will be left in VERY good hands. I‘ll discuss more later for sure.
Posted January 15th at 5:32 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Brian: I do. This air mass is underachieving on every account. Cold tonight, but I would be surprised to see a -30 anywhere. Temps are much colder than Rome elsewhere though (0 in Boonville currently, -2 in Brookfield).
Posted January 15th at 5:33 PM
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sno-x (westmo):
MATTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!! WTF....that sucks your the best around. what does your new job entail and is wktv hireing a replacement? and this blog will go down the tubes with out you. it was nice while it lasted
Posted January 15th at 5:37 PM
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sno-x (westmo):
Sorry i was writting while you posted some of my answers
Posted January 15th at 5:39 PM
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sno-x (westmo):
Sorry i was writting while you posted some of my answers
Posted January 15th at 5:39 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Snox: It will not go down the tubes…trust me. Everyone realizes the importance of this blog. In fact, we‘re trying to work on NEW things to make the blog even more interactive. We have some ideas we‘ll be pitching in the coming days and weeks ahead. So don‘t despair.
As for the new job…it‘ll be forecasting, just more focused on temperatures, and obviously in California. It‘s going to be a pretty challenging job, even harder than predicting lake snow! But what i‘ve learned since I got here is going to serve me VERY well. I think every meteorologist should spend a couple years here. I don‘t know, nor could I comment much about what is going to occur next as far as the wx team goes. But like I said, rest assured, you will all be in VERY good hands.
Posted January 15th at 5:40 PM
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sno-x(westmo):
Well ill take your word for it but this blog has been your baby since day one. nothing aginst anyone on th wx team but nobody was as active on here as you. Anyways i wish you and your family the best on the west coast! And you have done a fantastic job in the time you have been at wktv.
Posted January 15th at 5:48 PM
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Ryan:
Matt seriously, to tell you the truth.. your the only meteorologist in central NY that knows what there talking about. I hope you have a great job in Cali and best of luck.. We will miss ya here on the blog and on the news.
Posted January 15th at 5:49 PM
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CIndy:
Matt you will be greatly missed, but we all understand when a great thing comes along. You have been so generous with all of us. You were always there to answer questions and sometimes answering “in our backyard questions”. There are not many ppl around like that. I wish you ALL the luck on your new journey. May you achieve all that you can, and be happy! BTW...I was also screaming at my television.
Posted January 15th at 5:55 PM
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Stevo (the weather nut)(ROME):
you will be missed matt!
Posted January 15th at 6:09 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Matt: I echo everyone thoughts. you are a very talented meteorologist, you will be missed. This utility company is very lucky too get you.
By the way when I log into the site it knows who I am however it won‘t let me post with my log in.
Posted January 15th at 6:13 PM
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Matt (HP):
I remember a specific Matt saying he wasn‘t going to leave us….Pffff!
Gonna Miss you Matt.
And you never answered me. Would you ever do the Mt Washington thing?Posted January 15th at 6:16 PM
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Koz (Ilion):
I forgot to add that you will be missed Matt. Good luck in California !!!!
Posted January 15th at 6:17 PM
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John:
Koz,
God I hope not, No offense to Rich as a person. But No.
Nice Guy but don‘t want him on the air.Posted January 15th at 6:20 PM
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Laura (Paris Hill):
Matt: I agree with Ryan, you are about the only meteorologist in this area that gets the job done. This blog has become a wonderful tool while you have been on board. And you have been a great friend to all the local weather fans. Besides what‘s in California besides sun, and sea and more sun ? :)
Posted January 15th at 6:20 PM
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Matt (HP):
I will say I noticed Adam actually put a picture in on his thing this morning. I will say that the people that are succeeding you are the best anyone has left the weather department too.
Posted January 15th at 6:25 PM
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Carol (Albany area):
Matt, I am always lurking to see what forecast you have for the Old Forge area. Best of luck and you will be missed!!! You sure are going from one extreme to another weather wise.
Posted January 15th at 6:30 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Down to negative 1
Posted January 15th at 6:45 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
The temp here is – 11. with these clear skies….it‘s going to go below -20 tonight.
Posted January 15th at 6:54 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Good luck Matt. It‘s not going to be the same on here without you. I wish you the best of luck. Down to -2 here. It was 8 degrees at 5PM.
Posted January 15th at 7:09 PM
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Mike (N. Rome):
For some reason I can‘t stay logged in either. I go to the login screen, login as instructed, I then am taken to the synopsis page, when I click “Read more” it brings me to this blog but logs me out. What gives?
Anyway, Matt, as others have said, you will be sorely missed. You have transformed this blog into a weather classroom. I thank you for that. I wish you well in your new position in Cali (You know you‘re going to miss all the lake effect, microbursts and subzero temps….).
As you mentioned, this blog and the WKTV weather center is in good hands. You‘ve been awesome. Thanks for everything!
Posted January 15th at 7:13 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Wow there‘s a pretty good band of snow over the lake. Becky I would definitely keep an eye on that.
Posted January 15th at 7:16 PM
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Heather(mohawk):
it pretty chilly here 10 right now its not snowing can see the stars so no cloud cover right now what that means for temps ? Matt you will be missed I dont watch the news I dont get local channels the web site is my only link to the local area and when I read it it brought tears to my eyes. no offense to the rest of the news team but the ones we grow to love leave sooner then any of the others maybe because we dont see or hear from the others as much Best of luck to you in California at least you‘ll be warmer there then you would be here You‘ll be in our prayers
Posted January 15th at 7:19 PM
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Jules (Ilion):
Best of luck Matt…thanks for always
answering my questions….Posted January 15th at 7:20 PM
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Brian:
Well Matt I hate to see you go. I wish all the best to you. I hope you get to see at least one more big les event. Whats your thoughts on Friday and Friday nights les event?
Posted January 15th at 7:26 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
All:
1.) Thank you for the kind words!!! I will miss this and all of you as well!
2.) We are having some issues with logins and technical stuff. I will keep you posted.
3.) We‘ll be watching the lake snow closely. I‘ll post some thoughts a little later.Posted January 15th at 7:29 PM
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Matt (HP):
Update to all with the instant snow. Its 0 here and I boiled water for about 3 minutes took it out threw it and had some snow. I think by
5 it would work plenty well enough. It was still pretty cool when I did it at 0. Becky up there is going to be throwing pans of water out the door and her neighbors are gonna think shes on something! ;)Posted January 15th at 7:35 PM
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Matt (HP):
Umm add to the problems with the blog, putting a line through text.
Posted January 15th at 7:36 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Matt: Might be the code…weird. I get what you‘re saying though!
Posted January 15th at 7:42 PM
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Brian(Lairdsville):
Clear skys and -6 degrees right now. The good ones never last long in Utica. It‘s been a stepping stone before. Best of luck Matt.
Posted January 15th at 7:43 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Down to -4 here.
Posted January 15th at 7:48 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Matt: They probability won‘t, they know me to well :-)
Temp is down to -13
Posted January 15th at 7:48 PM
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Matt (HP):
-13 Yup Becky‘s out throwing water in the air
Posted January 15th at 7:51 PM
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Anthony (N.Marcy):
It is -3 here already….. watching to see what happens with the mean LES band that is starting to brew….looks like it is getting plenty of help from Huron right now
Posted January 15th at 7:57 PM
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Matt (cold Brook):
It‘s minus 12 here under clear skies and a slight breeze.The boys and I are gonna try the water thing tonight.Bundle up everyone…
Posted January 15th at 8:00 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
-4 at Rome…Dew is -10…let the free-fall begin. Saranac Lake is at -19!
Posted January 15th at 8:00 PM
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Bill - Exeter Center:
13 below here! Brrr
Posted January 15th at 8:15 PM
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Bets(West Leyden):
Matt(HP) your comments are Pathetic ,..Matt Lanza you are the best with the weather ,when you leave please send us some warm weather ..
Posted January 15th at 8:20 PM
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Ryan( Sauquoit):
Its 7 below, its going to be a VERY VERY cold one today
Posted January 15th at 8:21 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Temp is now down to – 16
Posted January 15th at 8:30 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Down to -7 here. Snowing pretty good in Oswego. Ratios tonight have to be at least 30:1.
Posted January 15th at 8:31 PM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
Windchills are going to be dangerous tomorrow AM. I can‘t believe West Leyden‘s already down to -16. I wouldn‘t be shocked to see you go to -28!
Posted January 15th at 8:34 PM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
Meant to say will be plenty cold enough for the boiling water thing. I‘ve got the lights to make a recording of it around 4am!
Posted January 15th at 8:36 PM
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WINTER (Forestport):
… -12°…
Posted January 15th at 8:47 PM
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Matt (HP):
-7
Posted January 15th at 8:51 PM
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Ryan( Sauquoit):
Hey guys down to -9.2 here
Posted January 15th at 8:52 PM
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T Wboro:
Just did the water trick and it works great. Plenty cold enough in the village
Posted January 15th at 9:00 PM
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Amy (Salisbury):
-14 here. I am boiling water as I type this to try the snow trick.
Matt we will all be very sorry to see you go. You have been the best meteorologist this area has had as long as I can remember. And, this blog is awesome. This is my 2nd winter on it and I am planning on taking the certification course in the Spring so that I can be a weather spotter. I‘m bummed you won‘t be here next winter.
Posted January 15th at 9:01 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
I‘m so happy you guys are trying this! Science in life :)
-8 at Rome… -14 dewpoint with clear skies and calm winds. My -10 low is going to bust too high! We‘re heading for -15 or lower.
Posted January 15th at 9:03 PM
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Jimmy (New Hartford):
Matt: Congratulations on the new job and you will surely be missed by me. You put in a ton of time and brought my weather hobby to a new level. Just wanted to say Thanks and good luck.
I‘ll give a temp once my weather station resets because I just put in the litium batteries. I am also going to try the trick later too.
Posted January 15th at 9:12 PM
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Jan (Rome):
-2 in the city.
Will miss you Matt. I can‘t imagine Newschannel 2 without you. I would have thought you would move back to Jersey! What a shock! I hope the other meteorologists step up to the challenge of filling your shoes. Best of luck!Posted January 15th at 9:17 PM
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Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):
-7 here in Westmo and dropping like a ROCK!
Matt, congratulations on the new gig. You‘ve helped me out a bunch and answered a lot of questions I‘ve had, and I thank you for all that.
:-)
Posted January 15th at 9:20 PM
-
It's cold:
-7 in DeRuyter as of 9:23
Posted January 15th at 9:24 PM
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Heather (Mohawk):
still not below zero we dropped to 3 since my last post I am bummed I wont beable to do the water trick here anytime before bed
Posted January 15th at 9:29 PM
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Cindy (ilion):
-3.5 on my thermometer here. I didn‘t think it would get this cold so fast. I can‘t see a star in the sky outside. I thought it was clear?
Posted January 15th at 9:30 PM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
Down to -17 here. Getting close, might do it before 10!
Posted January 15th at 9:30 PM
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Amy (Salisbury):
Down to -16.
So, I‘ve tried 3 times now and I can‘t get it to work. Am I doing something wrong? I let the water boil a while and I just throw it straight up but it stay waters and I hear it hit the ground. The only thing I see is a lot of steam? Any suggestions?
Posted January 15th at 9:37 PM
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kathy in cedarville:
-17 here i wonder if schools will close because of extreme cold
Posted January 15th at 9:47 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
It‘s -18 The DP is -21
Posted January 15th at 9:49 PM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
Amy: Wait until it gets closer to -25, most likely sometime tomorrow in the early am. -16 is just a bit to warm for it.
I‘ll probably do it around 4-5am.
Posted January 15th at 9:53 PM
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randy Vitullo :
Matt you will be missed. I do have to make a correction for everyone (I think everyone will agree, maybe not). Yes, Matt, you are a very hard working, diligent and super meteorologist. But, let us not forget that the WKTV weather crew works as a team to come up with what they do. Not only is Matt a magnificent meteorologist, so are the rest of the WKTV weather team. Cheers to Matt, Bill, Jill and Adam for the great work at WKTV. TO THE BEST WEATHER TEAM WKTV HAS EVER SEEN... Best of luck Matt. Does this mean you won‘t be judging our science fair? Just kidding…........
Posted January 15th at 9:57 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Amy: Mike is right, The colder the air the better. The last time I did it, the temp was very close to -25. And even at that temp
Most of water turned into a cloud of steam with some of it turning into small pieces of ice.Posted January 15th at 10:03 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Randy: You‘ve got that right. These guys have been awesome to work with, and like I have been saying, this department is being left in very good hands.
Weatherwise, some lake snow is making it inland…light snow, but it will be enough to cap the temp drop in some places. Accumulations will be light. Heavier snow over the east end of the lake is trying to squeeze south and east a bit. This could get into western Oneida County a bit later. We‘ll keep watching.
Posted January 15th at 10:04 PM
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Ralph L (New Hartford ( 900 ft )):
Light drizzle type snow at New Hartford. It was clear 1/2 an hour ago.
Posted January 15th at 10:06 PM
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Amy (Salisbury):
Mike: Thanks, I‘ll try again later. I thought they were talking earlier tonight in this blog about doing it around 0????
Posted January 15th at 10:07 PM
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Ralph L (New Hartford ( 900 ft )):
Oswego cam shows moderate snow.
Posted January 15th at 10:08 PM
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Amy (Salisbury):
Thanks Mike & Becky… I guess I will have to set the alarm early and try it in the morning. Still -16 here but I might make -25 by morning.
Posted January 15th at 10:09 PM
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
Art @ Oriskany Falls
Sorry to hear that you are leaving us Matt.
Good Luck on your new job. I guess maybe WKTV has been the beginning for lots of people.
I had 1/4 inch of Squeaky Snow in the driveway this morning. I didn‘t have to plow.
It is 8* below 0 right now and I think it wants to go lower.
Snow is OK but I hate cold weather.Posted January 15th at 10:12 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
The Temp here has been bouncing between -17 and -18 for the last 20 min. The sky is starting to cloud up. I think the free-fall is over at least up this way. Mike how are the clouds your way?
Posted January 15th at 10:17 PM
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Adirondacks4me:
It is
19 here in Remsen/ Stueben. I just drove home, and that is what the outdoor reading was in my (new) car, so I will assume it is accurate. I wonder if it will get much colder tonightPosted January 15th at 10:20 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
The free fall is done here for now. There‘s a light fine snow falling. Temp is -4.
Posted January 15th at 10:24 PM
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Matt (HP):
Mike, I did it at -8. It worked as well as I‘ve seen it in others videos.
Temp bounced up to -4 for about a half hour, its dropping again and back down to -6.5
Posted January 15th at 10:28 PM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
Clouds are building in, holding at -18
Posted January 15th at 10:35 PM
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Bob ( Cooperstown ):
Temp Here -13 Calm winds
I agree with the group, Matt we will miss you.
So you go from some of the most challangeing weather patterns, to some of the most stable weather in the country. Hope you‘re not bored.Posted January 15th at 10:35 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
NYZ006>008-161145-
/O.UPG.KBUF.LE.A.0001.090116T1200Z-090117T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.LE.W.0002.090116T1400Z-090117T2000Z/
OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE
1033 PM EST THU JAN 15 2009...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 3 PM
EST SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 3 PM EST
SATURDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.A WESTERLY FLOW OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE FULL FETCH OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE TUG HILL PLATEAU FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
WHILE SOME LAKE SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY
OVERNIGHT...THE LAKE SNOW WILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED INTO A
SINGLE IMPRESSIVE PLUME IN THE VICINITY OF THE TUG HILL DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY FRIDAY.THE WELL DEFINED PLUME OF SNOW WILL THEN PRODUCE SNOW AT A RATE OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED OVER THE TUG HILL WHERE A
FOOT OR TWO OF SNOW IS LIKELY BY SATURDAY MORNING.THIS WILL GREATLY IMPACT TRAVEL THROUGHOUT NORTHERN OSWEGO...
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LEWIS AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING
INTERSTATE 81 NORTH OF SYRACUSE.IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.$$
Posted January 15th at 10:42 PM
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Amy (Salisbury):
Temp is holding at -16.
Posted January 15th at 10:43 PM
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Mike W (east herkimer):
Temp of -4 with light snow falling..
Posted January 15th at 10:44 PM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
OMG Matt is leaving :( ....... BEST OF LUCK TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY on this wonderful new endeavor, you will be missed by one and all!!!
Now onto the weather it is absolutely frigid outside and the conditions couldn‘t be much better for the coldest night of the year. Crystal Clear Skies and absolutely no wind, even the smoke from the chimney‘s is stationary
Current Temp -18
Current Dew -34!!!!!!The Temp has been falling since 4pm when it was 10 and I think we could possible get close to -30 if the conditions stay this way.
Posted January 15th at 10:47 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
-8 here. Just saw a report from Speculator of -19.
Posted January 15th at 11:02 PM
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Mike W (East Herkimer):
Looking at some of the models and reading the discussion from the NWS, could this storm on sat/sun be bigger then expected??
Posted January 15th at 11:13 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Mike: Not really. I‘ve been anticipating 3-6” in my mind. So far, I see nothing to disagree with that. It‘s a storm yes, but it lacks the solid area of moisture other clippers have had. This may have a strong disparity between the North Country and the Valley southward.
Posted January 15th at 11:27 PM
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Mike W (East herkimer):
Well Matt its not so much about the clipper im talking, its about the coastal that seems to be trending west.. It looks like western New england and close to the hudson valley have a chance at about .75+ inch of qpf.. And it still has time to trend more west :)
Posted January 15th at 11:32 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Mike, it‘s possible, but given the trend this winter (we really haven‘t seen that), I would guess we end up with a moderate snow event, and S New England gets crushed again. Good pattern for all of us.
Posted January 15th at 11:37 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Just devastated to see you leave Matt!!! It truly has been an honor to have you share your vast knowledge of meteorology with us. Your accomplishments and commitments in the WKTV weather center are insurmountable. Look back to February 2006 when this blog was first established. You (and your team) have very intricately archived every weather event that has affected us in enormous detail since then. WKTV (and in my opinion any other news outlet) has NEVER had a meteorologist that has been as accurate and commited as you have in your time serving us. I really mean that! It is going to hurt not seeing your posts anymore at 2 or 3a.m. 95% of my knowledge of weather has come from this blog. Thank you so much for this learning experience throughout the years and you have no idea how very much you will be missed. I wish you the VERY best of luck in your future endeavors!
Posted January 15th at 11:37 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Michael: That means a lot to me. Thank you! I am glad I could help. I‘ve learned much more than you think too. I definitely didn‘t have as much knowledge as I do now when I started….this blog has forced me to learn a lot more about things than I ever would. I just hope I can maintain this level of intensity in my future. Who knows what the future will bring. Thank you again! :)
Posted January 15th at 11:42 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
And everyone else, thank you too. I really appreciate it. I just see it as doing my job. I‘m glad this has been beneficial to so many folks, and I look forward to hearing of continued success with it for the future. :)
Posted January 15th at 11:43 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
-9 below here with a very fine snow falling.
Posted January 15th at 11:52 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
The temp is -16….I have a litle light snow falling
Posted January 16th at 12:31 AM
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Matt (HP):
-5.5 here, Matt I think you made a good call, I don‘t think Rome made it past -10.
Posted January 16th at 12:41 AM
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Matt (HP):
The “other” Rome, NY did. -20, its in Clinton County near AuSable Forks.
Saranac Lake @ -25
Plattsburgh @ -20
Mt Washington @ -24
Toronto @ 1
Matt how is Toronto @ 1?
Posted January 16th at 12:46 AM
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where's the "other" rome,ny?:
Posted January 16th at 1:37 AM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Heading to bed now, but a warming thought… Clayton Lake, ME is the coldest spot I can find in the lower 48 (East of the Plains)... -40 at this hour.
Posted January 16th at 2:54 AM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
-4.9 degrees currently.
Posted January 16th at 5:09 AM
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WINTER (Forestport):
… -17°… Cold but not that cold. The clouds moved in and that kept the bottom from dropping out. There is even a dusting of snow here.
Posted January 16th at 5:40 AM
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Mike S (Port Leyden):
-21 here. Just did the boiling water thing, and it worked great.
Going to do it again, with someone recording it.
Posted January 16th at 5:42 AM
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piseco:
-22 here with cloud cover!!!
Posted January 16th at 7:11 AM
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Ryan:
Matt: would you still post some comments on how your doing and telling us how your jobs going while your in Cali?? If you could that would be great
Posted January 16th at 7:48 AM
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Chad Forestport:
Are we going to get any significant amount of snowfall for the surrounding Boonville area during this morning into the afternoon.
Posted January 16th at 8:02 AM
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edmeston center:
don‘t know why accuweather had us at-7 when it got to -17, but they were consistently 10 degrees off through the night.
Posted January 16th at 8:04 AM
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MG(PointRock):
Made it down to -17 around 10pm last night when the clouds and light snow moved in, never went any lower than that.
Posted January 16th at 8:20 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Still light snow here with 3/4 mile visibility.
Posted January 16th at 8:21 AM
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Amy (Salisbury):
-16 was the low las night, it continued to rise through the night and was only -9.4 this morning. I was shocked!
The login is still not working.
Posted January 16th at 8:25 AM
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Barbara (Laurens):
Temp was -24 at 6.30am – clear skies, lots of stars. I sent a photo of my thermometer to all the relatives in Florida!
Posted January 16th at 8:30 AM
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Randy Vitullo :
I have a QUESTION about the temperatures last night. How does the following happen with an Arctic air mass in place: The temperature dropped like a rock from 6 PM to 10 PM to a low of -15 in HP. By 2 AM, the temp was -7. I know that cloud cover prevents heat from escaping, thus keeping it warm. How do clouds bring the heat back during the dead of night with an Arctic air mass in place? Not to metion, very little wind. PERPLEXED!!!
Posted January 16th at 8:33 AM
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Matt H Mount Upton:
-18 here at 6 am. up to -12 now. things are COLD
Posted January 16th at 8:35 AM
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Andy Forestport:
Matt
Good luck on your new endeavour… Thanks for answering all my questions over the lest few years, on here as well as eastern weather.
Posted January 16th at 8:37 AM
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Jeff:
Matt,
Thank you for all you have done, yourself & the whole weather team. Wish you & your fiance the best.
Thank YouPosted January 16th at 8:39 AM
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Laura (Paris Hill):
Lowest we got here was -4. Temp is now -2 with light winds.
Posted January 16th at 8:42 AM
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Pat (Smyrna):
-15 deg for the low last night in Smyrna just west of Sherburne
Posted January 16th at 9:30 AM
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Bill Kardas:
Quite an interesting night! Cloud cover rolled in after midnight, haulting and/or reversing our temperature drop. Yes, Randy, it is possible and not unusual for temperatures to rise when clouds roll in despite a lack of wind at the surface. I‘m not sure the scientific explanation behind that….I‘d imagine it may have something to do with the clouds themselves bringing in moisture in the mid levels, reducing or preventing a temperature inversion from forming. If the inversion doesn‘t form or is reduced, it‘s easier to mix air downward at night…even if the winds stay calm it doesn‘t mean it‘s not mixing. Either way, we did escape the -30s that we worried about all week. Tonight may actually be colder than last night if we stay clear.
Posted January 16th at 9:35 AM
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Bill Kardas:
Lake effect is going to be the challenge this afternoon and tonight. Luckily, most of this lake band will miss our viewing area. However, the Tug Hill will get slammed. If winds can bring the band inland, 1-2 feet of snow is a good starting point. So far most of the activity has been close to the lake shore.
Posted January 16th at 9:43 AM
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Brad (Oneonta):
I dont understand how places that are 5 miles away can be 25 degrees colder than here. There is such disparity in what the the NWS lists for temps and what people on here register for temps. i looked at the area temps this morning and lo and behold there was a 17-25 degree difference in temps from what the NWS listed and what others on there list. 24 below zero in Laurens i think your thermometer is broken. I Dont think that Old forge was that cold last night.
Here in the outskirts of Oneonta at 6:30Am it was fluctuating between 0 and +1.
This morning Sherburne was listed at -1 and Jeff reported -17. I would think that the NWS would have a better grasp on temps. I know certain geographical locations are cold spots, but man what a difference between the two. I am not calling any of you liars so please dont take it that way.Posted January 16th at 9:55 AM
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Art (Oriskany Falls):
Last night around 10:00 PM it was almost -9 here
This morning it was -1
Just another coating of Squeakey snow this morning.Posted January 16th at 10:00 AM
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Bill Kardas:
Brad, I understand your concerns and fustrations. This is a very unique situation this time around. Our area on a clear night would have a large disparity in temperature with this kind of air mass…add sporadic cloud cover and that only enhances this effect. It‘s pretty wild if you ask me.
Posted January 16th at 10:07 AM
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Brian:
Old Forge was -22 at 7:00 am this morning.
Posted January 16th at 10:12 AM
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Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):
Brad- You have to look at just where the stations are located. For Sherburne for example, the NWS uses a station that is right in the village (well on outskirts) and as we all know its always warmer in villages and cities. In my case I am in what I would call a sheltered valley in an elevated area. I am sit back in an area surrounded by trees and I have always seen in the 4 years that I have lived here a disparity in temps. Even in the summer we stay cooler then surrounding areas. At first I didn‘t believe it so I went out and bought another thermometer to see if one was off, but they both read almost identical. The geography and just the slightest warmth (from clouds, lights, moisture, etc.) can cause a really amazing difference. I think that it is one of the fascinations, in the weather dept, that out state gives us. Just like LES, or the amazing ice amounts when the good ole east wind kicks into the valley during cold rain storms.
Posted January 16th at 10:23 AM
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Brad (Oneonta):
Bill/Jeff,
Absolutely. I am not complaining that I am 25 degrees warmer near my house. :) I always check other areas around and am amazed that it is that much warmer here. But when it is warm out, we arent the warmest. I know it isnt a “My house is colder than your house” or “we got the most snow out of the storm” etc…..Weather is pretty amazing sometimes and otherwise unpredictable. Thats the cool thing about this blog. you get to read everyones observations although they are backyard and may differ from street to street.
We had pretty clear skies most of the night and still only got to 0. There was a low of -5 in the middle of the night but warmed up to 1 degree by morning. Right now we are at 6 degrees.
Posted January 16th at 10:35 AM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
This sort of thing (the wild temperature disparity) is one reason I will miss CNY for sure!
As an aside, the State of Maine likely set it‘s all time low temperature record last night….
*********POTENTIAL STATEWIDE RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE*************
AT 0730 AM EST THIS MORNING A USGS GAGE AT BIG BLACK RIVER RECORDED A LOW TEMPERATURE OF -50F. THIS EXCEEDS THE CURRENT STATEWIDE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF -48F SET ON JANUARY 19TH…1925 AT VAN BUREN. THIS REPORT IS CONSIDERED UNOFFICIAL UNTIL A REVIEW OF THE EQUIPMENT AND DATA BY THE STATE CLIMATE EXTEREMES COMMITTEE AS TO THE VALIDITY OF THIS REPORT. IF THE COMMITTEE ASCERTAINS THAT THIS IS INDEED A VALID REPORT...A SEPARATE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AT THAT TIME.
Posted January 16th at 10:37 AM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
For those wondering, Feb 18, 1979 in Old Forge, it hit -52, which is currently the all-time lowest temperature in New York and the Northeast.
Posted January 16th at 10:39 AM
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Matt (HP):
Matt or Bill,
How is it that Toronto was at 1 last night and Places like plattsburgh were -20. Wasnt most of the cloud cover coming from the lake. If so, then was Toronto getting it off of Georgian Bay?
Posted January 16th at 10:42 AM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Matt: Meant to answer this last night. Yes I think so…more lake clouds, more urbanized, probably more wind too. They weren‘t going far.
To further the NY State record at Old Forge. The air mass in that instance was about 10 degrees C *warmer* aloft than this one is. In that instance though, we had a rare setup with a 1050 mb (that‘s 31.00 in on your home barometer!) high directly centered over us. Talk about an ideal setup.
Posted January 16th at 10:47 AM
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Truthsayer:
LOL Wktv losing another weather person …how many does this make in the last 5 years…. they get the job…. learn… then POOF they are gone. I have to laugh again and again this happens … funny they way i see it …. wktv has to have the record for most metoroligists that have come and gone of any station i have ever seen… anyways matt good luck …. wonder how long bill kardas will stay before he leaves too …
Posted January 16th at 10:52 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
The low here last night was -7. Had 1/2” of fluff at some point. That lake band doesn‘t want to get past I81 for some reason. Winds are blowing strong in Oswego, looks like they got alot of snow overnight.
Posted January 16th at 11:12 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
NWS BGM discussion debating whether the band will be a little more south than originally progged, per the latest RUC, getting Northern Oneida into the game. I had seen that on another media outlet this morning but had discounted it. Partly sunny here now.
Posted January 16th at 11:18 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Rob,
The radar doesn‘t always pick up low level lake effect. However, in this case the snow is falling very close to the radar, so the returns are probably legit. What‘s most likely happening is that the cold airmass is creating a low temperature inversion, in effect capping the growth of lake clouds. You can get heavy snow out of these scenarios, but as mentioned before it‘s much more difficult to sustain a large band inland. We‘ve seen this happen many times before.
Posted January 16th at 11:20 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Rob – at least on the weather underground radar it is finally making it to the oneida county line. We had real light snow most of the morning until abut an hour ago but the radara were not picking it up.
Posted January 16th at 11:24 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Mel I like WSYR for lake effect events. It works good for Oswego county and down here along the thruway corridor. For some reason, it always has trouble picking up the snow north of Rome though.
Posted January 16th at 11:37 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
I prefer that one as well. All morning as you said it did not show anything past I-81 (still doesn‘t). I can‘t get WKTV on my dish so I watched wsyr this morning and they were calling for to be right on the edge of 6-12 and 12-18.
Posted January 16th at 11:39 AM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
LES Advisory now for N. Oneida untill 6AM.
Posted January 16th at 11:41 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Band is definitely drifting south a little. Looks like Camden should be into some snow shortly.
Posted January 16th at 11:41 AM
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Bill Kardas (WKTV):
Good observation Mel. The band is drifting south and will impact N Oneida. I‘m making some adjustments in the snowfall forecast to account for this shift. Good thing this isn‘t happening in the Mohawk Valley :)
Posted January 16th at 11:55 AM
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Mel (Westernville):
Back to very light snow here – visibility is a mile.
Posted January 16th at 12:33 PM
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Working in Utica:
Matt Lanza: Very sad to see you leave. You have done an outstanding job. Luckily, we still have some great folks (Bill, Jill, etc) that will be around forecasting the weather for us. Still, it won‘t be the same without you. Thanks for everything. Good luck, and may God richly bless you on your new adventure!
Posted January 16th at 12:40 PM
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Working in Utica:
....forgot to mention Adam….SORRY, Adam!
Posted January 16th at 12:41 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Winds off Huron and G-Bay are blowing NW it looks like. I think this band could start to shift even further south for awhile. It almost looks like it‘s doing that right now over the western portion of the lake. The WRF gives Pulaski about 4’ feet of snow!
Posted January 16th at 12:50 PM
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Brad (Oneonta):
ANy thoughts on the sat/sunday snow? Amounts/locations/timing?
Matt, it was only a matter of time before something bigger and better presented itself to a very talented Meteorologist. Your dedication to the weather, this blog, and local communities sets you apart from many before you and many after you. Best of luck man.
Posted January 16th at 12:58 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
Getting light LES. perhaps 3/4 of an inch so far.
Posted January 16th at 1:08 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
After the sun sets, I think the LES band Should greatly intensify. There could be snow fall rates of 7 or 8 inches per hour in spots. places like Barnes Corners, High Market, and Montague Could see Localized 36+
Posted January 16th at 1:34 PM
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Gordon (Northwestern):
Talk about how temperatures can be vary alot in a short distance. When I was growing up in South Trenton, I lived in a valley close to the 9-mile creek. On the really cold mornings in the winter we were always 10-15 degrees colder then some friends who lived only 1/5 of a mile away on a small hill. It was always so hard to beleve there was always such a difference, that I though that one of us had a thermometer that did not work right. One cold morning (I believe I was -34, I took the thermometer from our house and walked up to our friends, and sure enough my thermometer rose up to a reading of -17 at their house. I went back to my house and it went back down to -33. As stated before these houses were less then 1/5 mile apart.
Posted January 16th at 1:35 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Brad: Thinking around 0.40” liquid on average, with isolated 0.50-0.60” amounts. We could see ratios around 12:1 on average. So doing the math, someone will end up close to 8” I think. The question is who? My guess is that it will be Boonville-Dolgeville/Salisbury/N Fulton County/S Hamilton County areas. More on this tonight.
Lake snows are already wicked to our west. We‘ll see how far inland this can get tonight. Should be interesting to watch.
Posted January 16th at 1:43 PM
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josh:
matt is it gonna snow tonight?
Posted January 16th at 2:25 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
10.0” in Pulaski so far.
Posted January 16th at 2:42 PM
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Jmd (Fonda):
Congrats, Matt on your news, and condolences to the rest of us…just be sure to check in with us from time to time, ok? I can‘t offer any additional accolades to you that have not already been expressed…you have taught us all so much! Best of luck.
FYI, Our overnight low was -11.. Elevation about 400’ .... hope it doesn‘t get much worse tonight!
Posted January 16th at 2:50 PM
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Anthony (N.Marcy):
Matt,
How close to our west is the LES band “wicked”...... I think radar is having a very difficult time with the dry air mass. Addtionally, I agree with Becky, after sunset this thing should be pretty insane. It is definately moving south… we need a nice GB hookup tonite to get this thing far enough inland to get into C.Oneida county though….
Matt,...thoughts?
Posted January 16th at 2:54 PM
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Mel (Westernville):
Just off and on light flurries/snow here. Hopefully after dark it cranks up a bit and makes it this far inland.
Posted January 16th at 3:01 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Anthony: Anyone living south of a Camden-Remsen line probably won‘t see much out of this tonight. This band is wicked well organized, and a lot of what you see on radar isn‘t exactly reaching the ground. A lot of times these bands get so well organized, they present a triangular sort of appearance on radar. Because of wind on either side of the band, it‘s snowing aloft in most areas, but the snow is only reaching the ground in the middle of it in most cases. That‘s why if you look at SUNY Oswego‘s Webcam, they aren‘t exactly getting crushed, but Pulaski‘s up over 10” and Redfield is getting wacked too. You go up to Nine Mile Point, and they have close to 15” on the ground from what I‘ve heard.
Posted January 16th at 3:09 PM
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mike m(binghamton):
Suny oswego seems to always get missed. sad to see you go matt, never thought id see the day. i want to thank you for all your time youve put in on this blog to teach us all SOO much about CNY‘s weather. you have been a great mentor, and i wish you the best of luck out in california!! ps. keep checking in with us here in NY( i know you will)
Posted January 16th at 4:11 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
been having a steady light snowfall all day. I measured 1.8 inches of accumulation.
Posted January 16th at 4:44 PM
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mike m (binghamton):
latest 15 utc short range ensembles showing the possibility of a decent coastal storm forming on monday. some of the models show a strong deformation zone forming over central and eastern ny. this could get intertesing!!
Posted January 16th at 4:58 PM
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Jan:
Matt, when is your last day?
Posted January 16th at 5:11 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Jan: Next Friday, the 23rd.
Mike M: The coastal is very, very tricky. The GFS is hammering E NY and W New England. But the Euro and NAM are in agreement that it will not be a big issue. Typically, when both the NAM and Euro agree on something, that‘s solid evidence. Even if the beefiest model (the GFS) verifies, it has little impact on us here…it would be more of an Albany-Springfield, MA thing.
Posted January 16th at 5:27 PM
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mike m(binghamton):
theres always the chance that it shifts further west. right now, as you said matt its not much of a threat. well see what the next few model runs say.
Posted January 16th at 5:50 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
22” reported in Pulaski, 20” at Nine Mile Point.
Posted January 16th at 5:51 PM
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Barbara (Laurens):
I understand there is some question about my temperature readings. I don‘t know what to say – my thermometer is mercury not digital – so no battery problems or whatever. I put another on the porch (the warm side of the house) for a few hours and it reads within a couple of degrees of old faithful on the north side. I live in a known cold valley in the shadow of a big ridge. We get sun later in the morning than people a quarter mile up the road, not that that should matter at night.
Anyway, at 1:00pm this afternoon it was 10 here. At 4:00pm it was 6, at 4:30 it was 4, at 5:00pm it was 2, and a couple of minutes ago I read zero. I‘ll let you know where we stand before I head to sleep. Last night the house made a lot of odd sounds, beams cracking and popping. Not really looking forward to all that again tonight. Sky is absolutely clear.
For what its worth, in the spring our bulbs and shrubs even bloom a couple of weeks behind the city, so it isn‘t just a winter thing. No wonder I can‘t get a watermelon patch going.
Best to you Matt, I‘ll miss reading your words of wisdom!
Posted January 16th at 5:56 PM
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brian(edmeston center):
Thanks Barabara. I believe you. I myself kept seeing Accuweather noting the temps 10 degrees warmer than my own readings. And now this is the real story about this thread.
Often, in December, we heard about snowfall totals being altitude dependent. Where can this be put false? I mean where temperatures can range so randomly, wouldn‘t where you are just as important? But I do note higher snow totals on hill tops after December falls. But where does this kind of yardstick rule break down? When does a valley or a pass play a difference in late Nov or early Dec snowfall events diverge? I am trying to put it together.Posted January 16th at 6:39 PM
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brian(edmeston center):
I heard the pops too btw (at -17) as early as 10 last night. I hate it (my pipes!). It was a head scratcher to see others close by post temps over 10 degrees warmer. I‘m not even on a hill, but a valley flat here.
Right now Accuweather says 4 degrees and I am a -1.
Posted January 16th at 6:44 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Brian: Contrary to snow, valleys, especially elevated valleys are always colder than hilltops on nights like this. Remember, cold air sinks, so if you can drain enough of it into a sheltered area, you can bottom out and be light years different than someone up the road.
Posted January 16th at 6:49 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Sry to say this but anybody that listens to accuwearther is a fool lol They are the worst site on the web for weather. Every snow storm we had this yr, they put me at like 1-2 inches.. If it was up to them my seasonal snowfall would be 10 inches lol.. And last night i was negative like every 1 else and they had me at +5 the whole night..
Posted January 16th at 7:10 PM
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Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmoreland):
Matt, saw this on the BUF NWS Site:
Meso-vortex within a single strong lake band over Eastern Lake Ontario today
Here is the link, Forgot how to link on here
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake0809/mesovort.html
Posted January 16th at 7:14 PM
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brian(edmeston center):
Matt- I get that Accuweather is not gospel. But they don‘t do a bad job for totals where I am. I still tune in here for where analysis is more “attuned” to the specific area and circumstances.
I loved a few weeks back when someone blogged Matt asking how he could call for that 60 degree day on Sunday when all other general sites called for 30-40. Matt blogged “what do we care what other sites are saying?” Great response! and the prediction was spot on.
But my quandry remains. If valleys (elevated valleys) can get colder, why the fall off in snow during snow events? Don‘t get it still
Posted January 16th at 7:28 PM
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brian(edmeston center):
Meant to address “Mike” in my first sentence, not Matt. Great photo, homey.
Posted January 16th at 7:30 PM
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Mike W (EAST HERKIMER):
Well i have accuweather premium and there showing a coating-1 inch for this clipper coming up, but in the mean while the nws service are saying advisorys will have to prob be put up for the mohawk valley north for 3-6 inches of snow..Even people in the accuweather forums make fun of there snowfall predictions…
Posted January 16th at 7:41 PM
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brian(edmeston center):
Mike W.-
Agreed. Accuweather is not good for specific stuff. Maybe stuff where things are a little less dynamic, like California or something.
But this cold valley vs. cold where there‘s elevation thing has me puzzled. Honestly puzzled. Anyone out there got a theory?
Posted January 16th at 7:52 PM
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Rob (Whitesboro):
Tony that‘s pretty neat. It‘s almost like a little snownado. Temp has been steady at 10 degrees here with some on and off light snow.
Posted January 16th at 7:55 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Brian: See my comment in 309.
Posted January 16th at 7:57 PM
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Michael- (Dolgeville):
Lake effect snow is reaching us here in town as well. Roads are coated and some very fine snow is falling.
Posted January 16th at 7:59 PM
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brian(edmeston center):
Matt-
In Cali you‘re going to going to be stellar. No question. Your no hype reports are a total REFRESHMENT from what I get from my hometown news area (Boston) – the total HYPE machine of the head ache century. You‘ll go there with all the skills to kill. You subsisted here. Now you go there. Blessings to you.
I am a dummy. I STILL don‘t get it though.I get why colder here last night. Lowlands – cold air sinks. Soooooo…... why in November don‘t I get as much snow as on the hilltops? I will get the rain?
Orrrrrr. Maybe that‘s just my perception….........
I guess thinking about it – maybe there is a big Virga effect? Maybe the snow peters out and evaporates due to drier, colder air where I am? Higher elevation hits it up? Yeah! That makes sense. Okay. I got it! Thanks.
Posted January 16th at 8:15 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Brian: Two reasons. In those situations where hilltops get snow, it‘s typically in a turbulent storm situation. Typically, as you go up in height in the atmosphere, the temperature cools. In the fall and spring, the coldest air is sometimes cold enough for snow a few thousand feet up, which is obviously closer to the tops of hilltops than the valleys. By the time the precip reaches the valleys, it has melted and falls as rain.
On nights like last night, the atmosphere is VERY calm. There isn‘t much wind. Skies are generally clear. And the valley basically acts as a reservoir. Instead of “water” flowing downhill, it‘s air…there‘s no wind to blow it around or anything, so it just sinks.
The main equalizer in all this is wind. More wind, more mess. Less wind, and then things are very stable. And basically depending on everything, whether your thermometer is in an open field, near a forest, in a slight depression in the terrain, on a hilltop, etc….it all factors in and temperatures behave with little or no rhyme or reason.
I hope this helps! I appreciate your kind words as well :). Thank you.
Posted January 16th at 8:21 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
000
WWUS41 KBGM 170110
WSWBGMURGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
810 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009NYZ009-170915-
/O.UPG.KBGM.LE.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-090117T1100Z/
/O.NEW.KBGM.LE.W.0002.090117T0110Z-090117T1100Z/
/O.CON.KBGM.WC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-090117T1700Z/
NORTHERN ONEIDA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF…BOONVILLE
810 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST
SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST SATURDAY.ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO GRIP THE REGION. SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
AND WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH WILL CREATE WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW
ZERO TONIGHT.A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTH WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN EXTREME NORTHERN
ONEIDA COUNTY...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 15 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY NEAR
FLORENCE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR COULD CONTINUE
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CLOSER TO THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY
INCLUDING ROME AND UTICA SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE 1 TO 3 INCHES.A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TYPICALLY ALIGN THEMSELVES IN
BANDS AND WILL LIKELY BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO DROP 1 TO SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW PER HOUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBILITIES VARY
GREATLY AND CAN DROP TO ZERO WITHIN MINUTES. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN WINDS COMBINE WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR EXPOSED SKIN. THE
WIND CHILL IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE FROSTBITE IN
ABOUT 30 MINUTES OR LESS...AND COULD LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTURE OUTDOORS
SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY...MAKING SURE THAT ALL
EXPOSED SKIN IS COVERED.$$
Posted January 16th at 8:37 PM
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brian(edmeston center):
hmmm…..
I like your answer too. I like yours and mine. Yours for when I get the rain (which is the piece of the puzzle after I wrote you I was trying to puzzle out still). And mine for when I get no water, but the hills get some.
Great. Now I need to store these dual situations in my head and model it out from a common sense perspective.
Thanks again.
Posted January 16th at 8:37 PM
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brian(edmeston center):
Sorry to get so prolific tonight with the questions, but …. the theme here is cold temperature deviations. And someone above asked how clouds rolling in in the middle of the cold night could raise temperatures. Bill answered this a little. And it was good.
But would I be out of line to mental model it that those clouds rolling in had some warm air riding in below it?
I mean, if clouds could insulate warm air in, and they move into a very, cold, cold area….aren‘t they or could they move warm air with it – below it?
Signed – learning A LOT on your final exit…..
Posted January 16th at 9:00 PM
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Becky (West Leyden):
still light snow here
Posted January 16th at 9:01 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
Brian: Sometimes that‘s actually true. In most cases, it‘s not so much that the clouds are bringing warm air with them. But think of clouds as a blanket…this is not a 100% accurate meteorological example, but it‘s good enough for our purposes. If you think of clouds as a blanket…they prevent the heat (or when it‘s 12 out for a high, “heat”) that‘s generated during the daytime from the sun from escaping. As the warm air rises, it hits this “blanket” and is re-radiated back downward. So in a sense, you aren‘t letting heat escape, so temperatures do not cool off nearly as fast.
Using another example…. when warm air surges in after a cold snap, it is often accompanied by cloud cover, as the warm air is forced up and over the cold air…rising air = clouds. That was not the case last night though, but will likely be the case tomorrow night…as temperatures will bottom out early and rise overnight.
Posted January 16th at 9:05 PM
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Mike (N. Rome):
Seems like you‘re cramming for a final Brian ;).
Light snow up on the hill in N. Rome. Nothing major.
Posted January 16th at 9:13 PM
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brian(edmeston center):
Thanks. Looking back, Bill did write it great, but it was just technichal and I was trying to break it down, which this helped. I think in pictures.
One of my favorite mental models is how daylight lessening and extending works. Its like a roller coaster ride. near the solstices, its like a roller car slowing near the top of the coaster ride. Minutes slowing or lengthening are slower as momentum slows down. Then in March or August, watch out! Daylight moves. I love picturing that in my mind.
Posted January 16th at 9:14 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV):
New entry is up!
Posted January 16th at 9:14 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV)
January 16th, 9:14 PM
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brian(edmeston center)
January 16th, 9:14 PM
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Mike (N. Rome)
January 16th, 9:13 PM
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Matt Lanza (WKTV)
January 16th, 9:05 PM
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Becky (West Leyden)
January 16th, 9:01 PM
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brian(edmeston center)
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brian(edmeston center)
January 16th, 8:37 PM
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Becky (West Leyden)
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brian(edmeston center)
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