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Aside from lake effect, the last 10 days have been extremely boring, weather-wise here in Central New York. Still, some parts of the North Country have received 18-40" or more of snow since about the 15th. Redfield, for instance, has received about 80-120" depending on where you'd be. For the season, they're close to, or over, 200", which probably isn't too far off normal.

Here in Utica, we should be at 57.0" for the season. Instead, we're at 49.0". Despite the fast start to December's snow, we've actually kept within 5-10" of normal since snow began, which is pretty interesting. Unlike the last two or three winters, where we either had feast or famine...mainly famine (except for late Jan-March last year).

There won't be much snow to add through Thursday. Tuesday's high of around 40 degrees, followed by cloud cover should ensure that through Wednesday morning, we stay liquid here in CNY. The GFS is a bit faster than the NAM with the onset of precip. We'll lean on that for now, given the NAM's less than stellar track record so far this winter. So showers are possible anytime on Tuesday. The steady rain arrives Tuesday night. The strong cold front will pass through between 1-4 AM Wednesday morning. A squall line of sorts is possible with this front. There is a rather sharp temperature drop following the passage of the front. Combine this with 50-80 mph winds a few thousand feet above the ground, and you have the potential for 20-40 mph winds early Wednesday morning and into Wednesday afternoon. I don't know if this hits warning criteria, but the wind should be the main story Wednesday.

Rain will end as wet snow on Wednesday morning, but I'm not anticipating more than 1-2" of accumulation. Temperatures should hover in the mid 30s on Wednesday morning and early afternoon, so I'm also not too worried about a flash freeze or anything like that.

Lake effect would be destroyed by the strong winds on Wednesday afternoon, so while we'll probably see some activity off the lake, it's going to be very broken.

So let's jump to the late week storm. Here's a quick summary of the models and tracks....

GFS Operational: Near us or just north and west (snow to mix to rain to snow)
European: Well north and west (Mix to rain)
Canadian: Near us or just north and west (snow to mix to rain to snow)
GFS ensembles: Some south and east, some north and west (all solutions possible)

The trend over the last few runs have been to shift this storm north and west. For instance, in the European's case, it's well north and west...mostly rain. The trend is your friend...or in this case, your enemy. A lot can change over the next four days, but there is a fundamental problem in place that I've been saying for awhile will plague us into Mid-February....

We don't have blocking.

Yes, you can get shots of cold air. Yes, you can get brief periods where good storm tracks can set up. But without blocking, nothing is going to stay in place, nothing is going to be around long enough to nail us and you likely won't see much lake effect.

Here's the problem. The biggest I think is the AO....the Arctic Oscillation. Basically, you look at this to look at atmospheric pressure in the Arctic. Higher than normal pressure allows for weaker westerly winds across the continent and thus allows Arctic or Polar air to drop south. If you flip to lower atmospheric pressure in the Arctic, you're dealing with stronger westerlies and any cold stays bottled up in the Arctic.

Here is a look at the AO forecast. That is raging positive...which means that we're out of luck.

In fact, if you look at the GFS ensemble means for the next two weeks, you can literally see the problem.

Look at the Atlantic. You see no blocking...no ridging. The NAO is essentially neutral for the next two weeks, so your hope for an Atlantic block is squashed. Then, there's the PNA, the Pacific block. You can see from the ensembles that there is no ridging there either. There is superior model agreement that the PNA is staying negative.

You want a positive PNA, a negative AO and a negative NAO. We have none of those in place.

So as far as I'm concerned, even though as a meteorologist I can't rule snow out for any of the upcoming storms, I have to be honest with you and say that it doesn't look good. If there's one minor bit of consolation in all this, it's that we're not going to turn screaming warm. A few 40s seem possible in the next two weeks, but blowtorch like warmth like we saw in early January isn't showing up. So while snow melt will occur, it'll be slow. While I'm fairly confident we see limited warmth, it's certainly not impossible to get warm with this kind of pattern...especially if you really wind a storm up over the Midwest. We'll see.

So, let's just sit back with low expectations for the next weeks, and hopefully something good will come of them.

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Comments

Anne (Sauquoit):

I think I am going to move to Redfield. I hate this lack of snow! I hope we can get something in mid-February like we did last year!

I have a couple of questions...Is this year typical of other La Nina years? And when will we know if next year is a La Nina or an El Nino? Does it have to be either one or the other?

Posted January 27th at 9:34 PM
Jimmy DeFazio (New Hartford):

Sorry for it being late but now at 58.50 inches in New Hartford.

Posted January 27th at 9:59 PM
Matt Lanza:

Anne: This year has behaved to some degree like a typical La Nina. We usually see warmer than normal conditions in moderate to strong La Ninas, especially from late December through mid February. Snowfall, we're halfway to a normal season at the halfway point of winter. We found that snowfall either was ridiculously high or ridiculously low in most La Nina years. We aimed high, given the warm lakes earlier this fall. That has not really been a factor so far. In the end, we'll probably end up at or a hair on either side of normal, barring anything extreme, but we've seen a lot of La Nina-esque things this year so.

Now, will we know whether or not next year will feature a La Nina? ENSO is an incredibly difficult thing to predict. But, that said, I went back and looked at an index called the ONI, Oceanic Nino Index. The latest figure from the end of December, was a three month number of 1.1...indicating a pretty decent La Nina. Looking back in time, just about all the times the ONI hit 1.1, the La Nina lasted longer than one winter cycle. The question will become...does the Nina strengthen further as we go into spring? Or does it slowly back down toward more neutral conditions by next winter. That'll take some time to figure out.

Posted January 27th at 10:08 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Since the weather is slow.........Here is something to chat about.

Matt- what is your take outside of global warming as too why the world is seeing such extreme weather. Things like the amazing drought in the Southeast and Southwest (LA had a total of 3.27 inches of rain all last year about 30% of normal) To the snow in China and Baghdad (100 years since last). Is there something other then global warming to blame or are we just in a typical cyclical pattern that has been seen in the past??

Posted January 27th at 10:36 PM
Matt Lanza:

Well, if we can't enjoy it, might as well check out someone who is enjoying it! Heavy snow and blizzard conditions in Provincetown, MA

Posted January 27th at 10:39 PM
Matt Lanza:

Jeff: I'll see if I can go into that during the week. That's a topic that could go in a million directions. The weekend is too light for such a heavy topic ;)

Posted January 27th at 11:13 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

16 degrees here. Took some measurements this afternoon of our snowpack (10 to be exact) all at different locations within a 4 mile radius of town, and they averaged out to around 11" inches. Hopefully with a nice snowpack like we currently have, it will keep temps just cool enough for any precipitation to fall as sleet and snow. I just hate rain during winter!

Posted January 27th at 11:21 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Easily blizzard criteria out that way.Can't believe NWS didn't go with one.Winds are gusting over 40mph with heavy snow.Barnstable county has up to 11" already.

Posted January 27th at 11:37 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Matt what is the GFS showing in WNY for the storm.Is that all snow or a big mess?Looks like 850 temps stay below freezing for most of the storm.

Posted January 27th at 11:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: Snow to mix to rain to snow...just as it is here. Keep in mind that 850s below 0 don't always equal snow. Often times, yes, but not always. We'll talk more about this tomorrow.

Posted January 28th at 1:11 AM
Brad (Oneonta):

Solid snow pack of about 1/2" here :) Sled is still in the garage.

Posted January 28th at 8:09 AM
Bob (Utica):

Hi, Matt. Any idea what is happening to the sunrise / sunset webpage? You had mentioned checking on it last week and it still looks like it is down. Any idea what's going on? Thanks for checking!

Posted January 28th at 11:36 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

euro shifted significantly east and about 6 out of 12 of the 12z gfs ensembles show snow and or a favorable track for snow in cny. canadian and operational gfs still show a mix bag as of 12z. also just to note, the dgex model, which i beleive is associated with the gfs model in some way or another shifted to a coastal track as of its 6z run(only comes out at 6z and 18z) this is going to be a close call on rain snow or mix.

Posted January 28th at 3:54 PM
ken:

will this be a big storm?do you think as of what you seen so far that we will see snow over rain,and if snow can we get dumped on?i know its well early but albany disscusion thinks rain,snow mix.

Posted January 28th at 4:11 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Mike the Euro sure does look better.At least we're not looking at a plain rain event.High Wind Watches up for all of CNY.

Posted January 28th at 4:21 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: Yeah, we've seen a slight shift east (almost painfully slight...the Euro's snow to mix to snow, but the GFS is snow/mix to rain to mix to snow). But, the DGEX, is nearly useless to be honest. It has yet to prove itself worthy as a model. So I don't buy that. I'm banking on this not being a snow producer for CNY, but I am concerned with ice right now. This is going to be a perilously close call for us I think...because right now we're on the edge on rain, snow and mix. Right now, I see mix being a big concern. Trends are going to be extremely important over the next 2-3 days. I'll post some more thoughts later.

Posted January 28th at 4:23 PM
mike m( binghamton):

matt,deffinetly agree about this being a close call. if we dont see a shift SE over the next day or 2 it will probably end up being a snow to mix to rain then snow showers type of storm.

Posted January 28th at 4:26 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

I think we had a similiar event like this back in December.The front end snows were very intense as mesoscale banding set-up along the thruway.The snow was grainy though and only added up to 4".Then we got hit pretty good on the back side after the mixing.

Posted January 28th at 4:34 PM
Dan Seymore:

Found this interesting time lapse loop of the 40 hour lake effect snow storm we had last week. This is from Accuweather. http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=community

Posted January 28th at 4:40 PM
Matt Lanza:

Bob: Actually, the page is working. You need to click and drag from the top left to the bottom and you'll see the text appear. I will work on getting darker text there...should be an easy fix.

Posted January 28th at 5:10 PM
Matt Lanza:

Fixed the sunset page I think! Let me know if you have any more problems.

Posted January 28th at 5:54 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

18z gfs shifted slightly SE, lets see if the 00z gfs will do the same. also 18z NAM,WRF and ETA seem to ininialized the storm further SE that the gfs at 84 hrs, so will be interesting to see what they say on there 00z runs tonight.

Posted January 28th at 6:08 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike...very true...that may be a good sign, but only if the 00Z GFS does the same, and 18Z model runs again are almost useless (can you tell I have a few biases?). We'll see what it says!

Posted January 28th at 6:22 PM
Matt Lanza:

No new blog tonight, but some thoughts...

- Chance for thunderstorms exists tomorrow night. I'm seeing some trends that point to that. This looks somewhat similar to the earlier in the month event that brought the powerful wind gusts to WNY. Whether or not this is severe, we'll see. The parameters for thunder have come up though since I was in yesterday.

- Winds will gust to 30-40 mph or more on Wednesday. Rain will change to snow and temps will plummet Wednesday afternoon and evening. Expecting an end of the event snow of 1-2" or so...slush. Sunshine is likely Wednesday afternoon in the wake of the storm. Lake effect will develop as well, but SW winds will keep it well north.

- 850 mb temperatures go from +6 to -15 to -2 over about 60 hours....volatile. Wild swings in temperature.

- The Friday storm is going to give us fits this week. The track right now is right over us...and this is problematic because a swing in either direction that will inevitably happen means drastically different outcomes. The trend today has been to shift it, slowly, south and east. That's a colder solution, which means less rain and more mix. Snowfall in the current scenarios on all the models would be held down significant because of sleet mixing in. Even if it looks cold, it isn't entirely. We need this thing to track another 100-200 miles south and east to get in the snow. But as of this time, I am concerned for a messy mix on Friday, with about everything but the kitchen sink. We'll see how it all unfolds. 00Z models tonight will be interesting to see if the S & E trend continues.

Posted January 28th at 6:50 PM
Matt Lanza:

GFS is clearly developing a coastal storm now. But, this still screams sleet/freezing rain and some snow. This has a lot of similarities to the mid December storm, especially in terms of precipitation type. There probably won't be that rocking snow at the tail end, as this storm will be trucking...fast. Precip starts Friday morning and ends around midnight. 12-16 hours. Not a long lived storm.

Posted January 28th at 11:23 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

well 00z gfs is in and it is at least slightly further SE again. this time it transfer energy to coastal storm faster so we would get some back end snow as well.points north of utica could be all snow according to this run. also the SREF ensembles deffinetly show a further east tracking stor, they put it right on the NC, GA border and it looks like they would track it upp the appalachins with secondary development occuring quickly somewhere in the coastal plain. overall the situation has gotten alot more interesting, and if we can shift the track 60-100 miles east of the 00z gfs we could really get alot of snow.

Posted January 28th at 11:24 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Well I hope it goes further south and east.But even if it doesn't we could still do fairly well.Figure 3-4" on both sides of the storm on average.That wouldn't be bad at all.

Posted January 28th at 11:40 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Latest CMC has gone further east as well.That would drop some decent snow on us.

Posted January 29th at 12:05 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

Rob, yea the cmc would nail us with heavy snow!!!

Posted January 29th at 12:29 AM
Josh (salisbury center):

It just wont be a good winter without a solid storm for all of CNY... We need a good foot or two to really make this winter turn out to be decent in the recreation department.. Hope this one doesn't dissapoint like all the others so far... Lets keep our fingers crossed!

Posted January 29th at 12:38 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

i hope so too josh, if we dont get good snow from this one it will probably be another 10 days at least untill our next chance.

Posted January 29th at 12:41 AM
randy Vitullo:

Let us all hope that tonight's rain doesn't wash away what little snow we have. Utica has next to nothing at this point (2 inch base). In Holland Patent we probably have a six inch base in the woods and shaded areas, with 2 or 3 inches of base in the sunny areas. A quick changeover is needed tonight (from rain to snow).

Posted January 29th at 6:01 AM
DT:

This storm in Friday is just another tease as next week we will see record high temperatures again. Do I see some 60's on Tuesday????

Posted January 29th at 6:52 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Moderate freezing rain is falling here at 21 degrees.

Posted January 29th at 8:20 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Roads are pure ice up here.There is a UPS truck stuck right in the middle of my road just spinning its tires.

Posted January 29th at 9:07 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Light freezing rain here as well - 26 degress. I also wanted to ask - I had heard rumors of potential record warmth next week - was wondering if anybody here was seeing that as well? Just my luck I have 3 sales appointments in the Nashua, NH area on Friday - sounds like it will be a long drive home Friday afternoon/evening.

Posted January 29th at 9:24 AM
Matt Lanza:

So much for my "this probably won't cause many problems," about the freezing rain possibility. Gotta love the way things work sometimes.

Posted January 29th at 9:45 AM
Andy Forestport:

yeah it is pretty bad, ice building up quick...

Posted January 29th at 9:51 AM
Ken (S.Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

Boy is it slick out , heard this loud thud, and looked tside to see a car bounce off the garbaged dumpsters then slide sideways don the hill...when out to check on her and was like dammm...scanner has been really busy with accidents and people falling.

Posted January 29th at 9:52 AM
Justin(Whitesboro):

Ken, yea i have a scanner here and yea there alot of accidents and people falling!!! its pretty bad out there.

Posted January 29th at 9:56 AM
Laura (Clinton):

Nasty ice down here. The sidewalks are just glare ice. The roads are also slippery. Be careful out there!

Posted January 29th at 9:56 AM
Matt Lanza:

DT... I'm not sure who you are, but...time to put on my best Jim Mora impression. 60s next Tuesday? 60s? Can you give me some sort of evidence to support that claim? It certainly looks above normal beyond the Friday storm, but 60s? The combination of the Euro, GFS and Canadian ensembles for next Tuesday would only have me going upper 40s to low 50s at best (and not anytime in the next 3 days). The 500 mb ridge isn't as classic a looking setup as earlier in January. 60s would be historic...I don't see historic warmth next week. I'll listen to your theory as to why you think 60s will occur though, if you care to share it.

As for today's FZRA situation. Models poorly handled the extent of the precip surviving the trip into CNY. I mean, our in-house model which has been almost flawless for us so far, held the organized rain/ice into the Finger Lakes and then collapsed it. I've seen situations like that happen before and verify right, so I ran with it. Some days you're the pigeon..other days you're the statue. Today, we're the latter. Fortunately, this is almost out of here and there is no lingering rain in W NY right now, and temperatures are well into the 30s and low 40s out that way. A little time and treatment and the ice should melt off, but as you see...I'd be extra cautious for the next few hours.

Posted January 29th at 9:56 AM
Vin:

How long is this freezing rain supposed to last today? I need to head north (Remsen, Hinckley area) this afternoon. Should I delay this? Thanks!

Posted January 29th at 9:57 AM
Vin:

Sorry for asking after it's been answered. Post 42 wasn't up when I started my question.

Posted January 29th at 10:02 AM
Betsi ~ West Leyden:

ONE SHEET OF ICE ON EVERYTHING..TRAVEL IS INPOSSIABLE TRUST ME WAS JUST OUT THERE (TURNED AROUND),,,PLEASE USE CAUTION BETTER YET STAY PUT ...Temp 25* and pouring rain.BUT VERY SLICK!!!

Posted January 29th at 10:03 AM
Matt Lanza:

Vin: No problem. By this afternoon, you should be fine.

Posted January 29th at 10:03 AM
Andy Forestport:

Matt

Could it be Dave Tollis of wxrisk.com? He goes by DT and he always refers to "trend is your friend" and he said that in his previous post before the 60's claim...

He does post at some of the other places you post at...

Posted January 29th at 10:16 AM
Matt Lanza:

Andy: Well whoever it is probably isn't too familiar with CNY weather, because Utica has never hit 60 degrees between January 26th and February 19th...ever.

Posted January 29th at 10:34 AM
Gordon (Northwestern):

10:20 AM Still light freezing rain, Temp= 28.6. Just got back from having my car inspected. Some of the roads are glare ice. Had to make three attemps to make it up Beckwith Rd. to my house. Looks like it should end soon. Snow pack down to 11.5" at my house. I think who ever said it was going to hit 60 next Tuesday or wednesday probably heard it from Dave Echorn fron WSYR-TV, in syracuse. He said there was a good chance for 60 in Syracuse next Tuesday or Wed. I can see there is a slight chance of that next week in Syracuse because there is little snow pack south of Syracuse, to cool down the South winds as they flow North, where we still have some snow around that will keep the temperatures down a couple of degrees as the air flows over the snow.

Posted January 29th at 10:48 AM
Jamie (Rome):

I have family flying in on Friday (coming through Charlotte). Will this storm play havoc with flights on the East Coast?

Posted January 29th at 10:54 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Those warm temps next week are probably being seen because of a possible western runner on the models.With the NAO going slightly negative I wouldn't be surprised if the models changed their mind and went with more of a east coast storm.

Posted January 29th at 10:55 AM
Matt Lanza:

Gordon.. You bet. Syracuse also has significant downsloping during southern flow events...the terrain south of the city is significantly higher...so they can hit 60 a lot easier than we can. The Mohawk Valley sort of slopes down gradually, so it has less of an impact. There have been many occasions where Syracuse has been mid 50s when we've been mid 30s, so. We'll see.

Jamie: At this point, I'd say yes. This looks like a mess for someone in the East...be it us or others.

Posted January 29th at 11:03 AM
Matt Lanza:

Latest GFS continues to scream ice potential to me. Looking more and more like a significant mixed bag event.

Posted January 29th at 11:04 AM
Matt Lanza:

Putting the freezing rain debacle behind us...looking to tonight..this front is incredible. Temps are 0 in Minnesota (or colder), but near 50 in Chicago. Kansas City is at 16, while St. Louis is at 68. Incredible swings in temperature are evident with this front, so as it plows eastward tonight, this is why we're concerned with strong winds and perhaps thunderstorms late tonight and early tomorrow.

Posted January 29th at 12:51 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Main roads are fine in the Whitestown area now.Still a little slick on the side roads.Matt what time apprx do you think this squall line would move through?Just wondering because I wanted to be awake as it comes through.I missed it last time.

Posted January 29th at 1:12 PM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: I'll post details on that later once I get in and settled.

Posted January 29th at 1:18 PM
Jeff:

Matt,
As strong as this front will be do you think it will have the same impact as the previous one?
Also, will there be a quick burst of heavy snow?

Posted January 29th at 1:33 PM
Ken (S.Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

High wind warnings now in place for the region....Matt do you think the weather overnight tonight will be more signifcant than friday or vice versa.

Posted January 29th at 2:15 PM
Tommy Boy from Rome:

Andy: Well whoever it is probably isn't too familiar with CNY weather, because Utica has never hit 60 degrees between January 26th and February 19th...ever.

Posted 4 hours ago by Matt Lanza

Really Matt? I heard Dave Eichorn say the same thing last night. And I believe he is real familiar with CNY weather.

What is he seeing that you aren't? Sunshine?

Posted January 29th at 2:24 PM
Matt Lanza:

Tommy Boy: If you'll read my post in 52, you will see that I clearly said Syracuse can hit 60 a lot easier than we can. When I reference CNY, I do not include Syracuse, because to our viewers, CNY is their home...and for most of them, that's not Syracuse. Meteorologically, it's a different world there than it is here. I actually happened to work with Dave in Syracuse for my first job, and I attribute a significant amount of my knowledge and success regarding CNY weather directly to him.

Posted January 29th at 3:27 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

We are still below freezing here. At my location I have 28 degrees. At my other location about a mile away I had 30.4 degrees. My weather bug for Herkimer is at 29 degrees. I wonder if the deeper snowpack up this way is the cause for the lower temperatures. I actually still have ice on my sidewalk and driveway. I wonder if we will have to deal with more ice tonight if these temperatures don't rise enough?

Posted January 29th at 3:35 PM
Matt Lanza:

Michael: I'm sure snowpack plays a role, but it's more your location. As is the case with Syracuse to Utica...it's moreso where you are geographically. The cold air locks into the Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley and is extremely tough to erode. That's why I was saying last night that while many areas will hit 40 degrees, it might be a slow climb...and you're the typical case right now.

Working on the forecast now...I'll have an update for you a bit later.

Posted January 29th at 3:41 PM
Tommy Boy from Rome:

Matt I think you are kind of splitting hairs here aren't ya?

Posted January 29th at 4:05 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

still only 34.5 here, i thought we going to hit 40 easily here today, and the news people down here were saying 50 in the valleys today, well with only one hr of sun left i doubt 50, maybe 40 if the south winds kickin stronger. had some decent freezing rain down here ealier too with temps around 25 degrees at 8 am.

Posted January 29th at 4:07 PM
Ken (S.Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

Can we focus on the current weather situations rather than speculating on late next week...we have to significant events on our doorsteps why clutter the board with nonsense...and if u read the blog rules u should not be discussion what other media outlets are talking about other than the nws

Posted January 29th at 4:08 PM
Matt Lanza:

Tommy Boy: Sometimes what is said in the blog can be misconstrued for what we are actually forecasting. If someone thinks it's going to be in the 60s in a week in our area, and I'm not even forecasting 45 degrees yet, that's a big difference.

Posted January 29th at 4:08 PM
MikeD:

Andy from Fport, Most likely not DT from wxrisk because his grammar, punctuation and spelling is just horrendous on his website. "Our"
DT shows no evidence of this on his postings here.

Posted January 29th at 4:15 PM
john (new hartford):

Drama on the weather blog is so funny :)!!!

Posted January 29th at 4:22 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Had a good shot of frozen precip this morning but then the temp climbed so steadily above freezing. I have a feeling that the snowpack here (about 4 inches at the most) is in trouble tonight and tom.

Matt- How does the wind situation look? I see that the areas just north of me are all in warnings....just wondering what your take is on the wind.

Posted January 29th at 4:24 PM
Matt Lanza:

Alright...here's the situation.

Right now, I see winds steadily increasing tonight. We should be gusting on the hilltops between 20-30 mph by later tonight. The cold front should arrive just after daybreak tomorrow. There is a strong chance that a line of thunderstorms accompanies the front as it passes through. Should this happen, a brief, but significant period of wind is likely between 7 and 9 AM.... ala Rochester earlier this month. I am a bit concerned that a small inversion sets up later tonight, negating the effects of that potential for strong wind, but we'll see. Regardless, after the front passes, winds will be strong and gust to 40 mph or better at times, especially on hilltops. The best chance for this is going to be north of Route 20. It will still be windy in Chenango and Otsego Counties, but the damaging wind potential is much higher to the north.

Rain will end as some snow...maybe...but no accumulation. Temps tomorrow morning will start in the 40s. By 10 AM we'll be in the 30s. By Noon we'll be in the 20s and by 5 PM we'll be in the teens. A flash freeze is very possible tomorrow morning, so around the lunch break, I would consider staying put at work.

Lake snows will get going north of Utica and north of the North Country even tomorrow. They will settle into the North Country for a few hours tomorrow night before warm air begins rushing back in and ends it.

Friday's storm is a big ole' mess. I expect snow and sleet right now, with a changeover to freezing rain and potentially rain. Snow and ice accumulation is a good bet and travel on Friday looks sloppy. Stay tuned for more on this later tonight.

Posted January 29th at 4:39 PM
joe:

i dont ever think we are going to get a big snowstorm this year.friday looks like a mix to rain so thats another bust.either we are going to keep getting missed or if lucky we might get one major snowstorm.sounds very negative but from a snow lover like alot of us its very depressing.

Posted January 29th at 5:06 PM
LM (Whitesboro):

Just curious...can anyone give me an outlook for tomorrow evening? My husband is flying in from Florida to Syracuse around 8:30. How does everything look? God I hate it when he flys...just can't relax til he's on the ground! I appreciate the imput! Thanks

Posted January 29th at 5:15 PM
Matt Lanza:

LM: It'll still be windy tomorrow night, but the wind gusts will only be 15-30 mph I think. So he shouldn't have much trouble.

Posted January 29th at 5:18 PM
LM (Whitesboro):

Thank you Matt. One less thing to worry about!

Posted January 29th at 5:20 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

ahhh, it is such a clsoe call on fridays storm, iagree with what albany said in their forecast discussion, if the coastal low can take over a bit sooner anyone from the hudson valley east could potentially get nailed with heavy snow...but the models better trend toward this soon...remember the trend is your friend....i hope!!!

Posted January 29th at 5:36 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Well, even if this is a messy mix for Friday it does have its advantages. First of all, a snowday would be a good bet for all you kids and teachers, secondly our snowpack would not melt, just get iced over, and lastly snow and sleet is plowable/shovelable which makes me happy! Of course if you have to travel then this is a whole different story. We seen what a VERY small amount of ice did this morning. Lets hope for snow.

Posted January 29th at 5:54 PM
Joe:

Tommy Boy from Rome and DT go find your type of blog you ????????????

Posted January 29th at 7:17 PM
Brian:

Matt do think it is possible for Old Forge to get several inches of snow/sleet on Friday. We don't want any R stuff up here.

Posted January 29th at 7:22 PM
Matt Lanza:

Brian: It's too early to say for everyone. All options are still on the table, but you stand a better chance of seeing at the worst, ice.

Posted January 29th at 7:31 PM
Sarah:

I hope I am smelling a snow day...it would be so wonderful!

Posted January 29th at 7:41 PM
Matt Lanza:

New entry up

Posted January 29th at 8:08 PM
Teddy:

Technically speaking Utica isn't Central New York.
That title would belong to Pratts Hollow. But I'm sure Matt will dispute it. He always has an excuse when he's wrong so why stop here?

Posted January 29th at 9:10 PM
Matt Lanza:

Hi Teddy: Sorry about that, but would you rather me act like nothing happened? I at least can admit in public when things go wrong, and I'd rather explain why they went wrong, rather than gloss over it like it never occurred. And I "always have an excuse when I'm wrong?" Have I been wrong that often this winter? I believe our forecasts this winter have been great. Today is really the first time this winter that we've flat out missed something. Considering that CNY is one of the most challenging places in the country to forecast, I'm not too upset about things this winter.

Posted January 29th at 9:25 PM

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