A Thunderstorm-free Thursday

Posted July 21st, 2010 by Adam Musyt. 19 comments

After a slow start, thunderstorms developed across CNY in the humid unstable air mass earlier this evening.  Thunderstorms were intense for a time.  Preliminary damage reports include some thunderstorm wind damage in McKeever, Ohio and Herkimer, as well as Oppenheim.  There were also reports of 1 1/4" hail near Newport and 1" hail near Clinton.  The wind was quite intense at our television studios as the storms crossed the area.  Officially at Griffiss Park, a 44 mph wind gust was recorded at 8:01 PM.  Thanks to Becky for sending in this picture as the storms rolled through Lewis County earlier this evening.

 

The cold front which helped to trigger these storms is now situated to our east.  Slightly cooler and drier air is now working in from Canada and the Upper Midwest. Dew point temperatures have fallen back to near 60 degrees and should stay there through much of the day Thursday.  With high pressure in control, a nice sunny to partly sunny day is expected.  With 850 mb temperatures falling to the 12/13 range we expect high temperatures to be near 80 degrees.

 

Our next weather maker arrives on Friday and Saturday in the form of a complex system with a couple of frontal boundaries.  Some thunderstorms will return to the forecast in this time frame.  We'll pinpoint the coverage and intensity likely with these storms over the next couple of days.

 

At this point it appears that a nice stretch of weather will return for the second half of the weekend and early next week.  Pleasant temperatures and low humidity are expected.  That would be quite a turnaround from what is shaping up to be a very warm and rather humid summer

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  1. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Law enforcement reported trees and wires down in Rome, Westernville, Holland Pantent, Floyd and Deerfield. So that was a gusty storm for sure.

    Posted July 22nd at 6:27 AM

  2. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Yeah that storm woke me up out of a dead sleep last night around 8pm (I sleep odd hours on this early shift). The wind was pretty fierce in North Utica, and I have a lot of small limbs in my backyard to clean up yet again.

    Posted July 22nd at 7:47 AM

  3. fairfield:

    i guess that wind didn’t take long to get to my house, my peak gust was 46 at 8:15 pm

    Posted July 22nd at 8:09 AM

  4. fairfield:

    Bill, will tomorrow be similar to yesterday in the form of storms or will they be more isolated, maybe doing some work on the spring and worried it may be too mushy

    Posted July 22nd at 10:09 AM

  5. Becky (West Leyden):

    fairfield, The weather over the Northern Plains is what we will be watching. the models are in disagreement on where it will be. NAM has it farther north than the GFS. The stuff tomorrow could be similar to yesterday. as far as the number of storms that develop. However, I don’t think the severity will nowhere near as bad. time frame for severe weather looks to be late afternoon through early evening. As a possible MCS and warm front work together. The strength of severe weather will depend on timing, front placement, and how long we’re in the warm sector there will be a lot of fuel for the it to work with. CAPE values should be 1200 -1600 J/Kg with plenty of shear and negative indices. However, The values won’t be as high as yesterday. time will tell.

    Posted July 22nd at 10:50 AM

  6. Rob (Whitesboro):

    The Saturday front might be something to watch as well. That low looks pretty strong, and we could have a decent wind field to work with.
    Also, TD3 has developed in the Caribbean. Models strengthen it a bit and bring it into the oil spill area now.

    Posted July 22nd at 11:00 AM

  7. Becky (West Leyden):

    Yeah, We will be in the warm sector all day and there will be favorable instability for the frontal boundary to work with.

    Posted July 22nd at 11:23 AM

  8. Becky (West Leyden):

    enjoy the lower heat and humidity levels. Because, they will be back tomorrow.

    Posted July 22nd at 11:45 AM

  9. Mikeherkimer:

    Any thoughts on when it will be bad on Sat.? Have a golf tourney from about 9:00-1:30

    Posted July 22nd at 11:49 AM

  10. sn (forestport):

    oh yea becky – its just absolutly beautiful out today – finally can give the ac a break – nice day to hang a ton of laundry out to dry – not looking foward to the heat and humidity returning though.

    Posted July 22nd at 12:00 PM

  11. Brett:

    camping this weekend at Delta lake… will these storms be frequent, heavy and all day both saturday and sunday? need to know how much plastic to bring!

    Posted July 22nd at 12:45 PM

  12. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Friday looks wetter with the new data coming in this afternoon. The question is where the steady rain falls. NAM keep it north, GFS brings it south of the valley. Taking the average of that, and that puts it right over CNY. We’ll will wait for the 00z for more clarity. Plan on some wet weather both days though.

    Posted July 22nd at 12:47 PM

  13. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Remember folks, it’s thunderstorms we’re dealing with here. It’s difficult to be specific about time, duration, intensity, beyond 24 hours.

    Posted July 22nd at 12:48 PM

  14. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Brett,

    The current storm track does not suggest a washout on either day. Plan on some wet weather on Saturday, with drier weather on Sunday.

    Posted July 22nd at 12:52 PM

  15. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    Could be a wild few days here friday and saturday.. Potent system looks to possibly spark off some good storms here friday afternoon and saturday with the humidity returning. Maybe we’ll have another outbreak ???

    Posted July 22nd at 5:50 PM

  16. Sar:

    Adam/BIll
    Are we expecting severe weather Fri, and Sat?

    Posted July 22nd at 6:45 PM

  17. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like our MCS is blowing up over Michigan as we approach dusk. The warm front is pretty active this evening with numerous supercells.

    Posted July 22nd at 8:33 PM

  18. Becky (West Leyden):

    Rob, I’ve been watching it. It’s going to be a busy night out there. looks like there is a tornado just west of Cleveland

    Posted July 22nd at 9:01 PM

  19. Adam Musyt:

    Sar,

    There is an outside chance of a strong or severe t-storm tomorrow (Friday). Our computer models show a pretty expansive area of cloudcover and a shield of rain ahead of the warm front.

    Right now it appears that a better chance for a few more strong or severe t-storms would be Saturday with more breaks of sun, and more instability in a hot and humid air mass.

    Posted July 22nd at 9:50 PM

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