A Return to the Heat

Posted July 11th, 2010 by Jill Reale. 41 comments

 

First off, I would like to congratulate Bill Kardas on an awesome Boilermaker run. I think he ran a lightning fast 68 minutes for the 15K. The weather was not perfectly ideal for the race but much better than what we have been dealing with last week. Race time temperature was around 65° with a dewpoint of 62°. The runners did have to deal with some filtered sun but that didn’t stop two course records to be broken!
 
So the comfortable weather we have been having for the past two days will be long gone once again as we head into next week. Tomorrow, high pressure will shift to the south and east of us. Since winds around high pressure move in a clockwise direction, our winds in Central NY are going to shift to the southwest tomorrow. Those southwest winds are going to bring unseasonably warm air back into the region, with temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees by Monday afternoon. The big difference between last week and this week is that we do not have a huge upper level ridge and strong high pressure to keep the weather dry. Starting Monday night, several disturbances look move on through, setting off a few showers and thunderstorms. The NAM and GFS disagree on the amount of precipitation for Monday night through Wednesday. As many of you have seen in the past, the NAM has been having difficulty with convective feedback. Convective feedback is when a forecast model over does the vertical profile of temperature and moisture, creating convective precipitation (thunderstorms). So I am edging closer to the GFS with scattered thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, when the main cold front moves during the day on Wednesday. Of course, the million dollar question is, “will we see severe weather”. As of right now, no. Timing of these disturbances is still unclear at this moment and as we have seen, timing plays a big part in thunderstorm develop. One that is for certain, the humidity will return by Tuesday, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s to low 70s into Thursday.

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  1. Matt (Cold Brook):

    What makes an anvill Cloud and is there any significant reason for one?Last week we saw one to the south east of here and last night I saw one to the north. The only time I can remember seeing them was before a big storm and when I lived in Arkansas and Tenn.Can someone explain these to me?

    Posted July 12th at 4:40 AM

  2. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Matt,

    A thunderstorm cloud (cumulonimbus) always has an anvil shape to it. Most of the time, we don’t see that shape because other clouds tend to get in the way. Last week, we had a few isolated thunderstorms on an otherwise sunny day, meaning you had a clear shot of seeing the individual cells.

    The reason why there is an anvil has to do with the tropopause. Air rises rapidly in a thunderstorm, but once it hits the tropopause, the air stops rising. The tropopause acts like a lid on weather systems. That ‘lid’ pushes the rising air horizontally in all directions, giving the thunderstorm cloud that neat anvil shape. You can tell where the winds are blowing aloft based on where the anvil cloud is drifting too.

    Posted July 12th at 6:13 AM

  3. fairfield:

    Bill, is there another way to send weather info to you guys if we can’t get on a computer

    Posted July 12th at 9:02 AM

  4. fairfield:

    how great is the chance for showers tonight

    Posted July 12th at 9:59 AM

  5. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Fairfield,

    Sure can. Send me an email and I’ll set you up with our weather office number. You can call and leave a message before the newscast and we’ll get your numbers up.

    Posted July 12th at 10:39 AM

  6. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    There’s a 40% chance of a thunderstorm late tonight as our next disturbance moves in. Any rain looks to hold off until after 3am.

    Posted July 12th at 10:41 AM

  7. fairfield:

    a dumb question now, what is the email address

    Posted July 12th at 3:11 PM

  8. Matt (cold brook):

    Posted July 12th at 3:15 PM

  9. Adam Musyt:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    NORTHWESTERN BROOME COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... WEST CENTRAL CHENANGO COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK... SOUTHEASTERN CORTLAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

    • UNTIL 730 PM EDT.

    • AT 641 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MARATHON TO NANTICOKE TO MAINE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
    MARATHON BY 650 PM EDT... LISLE BY 652 PM EDT... WHITNEY POINT BY 654 PM EDT... WILLET BY 704 PM EDT... CINCINNATUS BY 708 PM EDT... SMITHVILLE FLATS AND GREENE BY 712 PM EDT...

    THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS
    PARTS OF TIOGA COUNTY NEW YORK AND BRADFORD COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA.

    WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO
    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT
    1-877-633-6772…OR BY EMAIL AT BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

    Posted July 12th at 6:49 PM

  10. fairfield:

    Adam, from post #5, can you get me the email

    Posted July 12th at 7:27 PM

  11. Mel (Westernville):

    Fairfield – Weather@wktv.com

    Posted July 12th at 9:25 PM

  12. fairfield:

    ty, Mel

    Posted July 12th at 10:10 PM

  13. fairfield:

    will the sun bring on more chance for storms

    Posted July 13th at 11:43 AM

  14. jessie (ilion):

    well guys kinda weird question… I am going to niagara falls for this weekend hubby taking me there for my birthday just wondering does anyone know were i can check the weather for there or does anyone know what the weather is supose to be like there saterday… thanks to anyone who can help me

    Posted July 13th at 1:07 PM

  15. fairfield:

    there is the national weather service site, www.nws.noaa.gov, just need to input the city or town and it should give you all the info, while your there can you bring back some water from the falls lol, getting pretty dry here

    Posted July 13th at 1:26 PM

  16. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop to the west of Rochester. We will keep an eye on this storms and see if they hold through as they move east.

    Jessie: weather.gov or wgrz.com for Buffalo weather.

    Posted July 13th at 1:39 PM

  17. fairfield:

    Jill, lots a rain, lots a rain, need the rain, need the rain…....crossing my fingers…..

    Posted July 13th at 2:49 PM

  18. marie:

    is this heat wave going to break anytime soon?

    Posted July 13th at 3:15 PM

  19. Jill Reale (Utica):

    One cell has popped up over Oneida Lake. Temperatures are likely to stay in the mid to upper 80s to near 90 degrees for at least the next 10 days.

    Posted July 13th at 3:25 PM

  20. fairfield:

    what are the chances of that cell holding up and dumping on me?

    Posted July 13th at 3:37 PM

  21. Becky (West Leyden):

    Looks like Thursday is going to be a very hot day; when the front slices through Friday, I hope we see more rain than we got with the last one, the ground is very dry. However, after last Summer, I’m enjoying the warm weather, It looks like we will be in this great Summertime pattern for at least the next week and a half.

    Posted July 13th at 5:22 PM

  22. fairfield:

    Becky, dry isn’t the word, we have to ration the water for our place, between 17 heifers pigs, chickens and ourselves…....like the warm weather though but really need some rain

    Posted July 13th at 5:56 PM

  23. fairfield:

    why is that line of showers not moving, what’s holding it there

    Posted July 13th at 7:42 PM

  24. Becky (West Leyden):

    fairfield, I hear you about the lack of ground moisture. I think I’m not as bad as what you’re experiencing, however it’s bad enough. I don’t know what the ground moisture reading is, The soil moisture sensor for my Davis is broke and the replacement hasn’t got here yet. (yeah I know, great timing).

    The line is going slow because the flow aloft is very weak.

    Posted July 13th at 8:15 PM

  25. fairfield:

    now the line appears to be dissapating…....great

    Posted July 13th at 8:43 PM

  26. Sauquoit:

    you guys called for heavy rain on Friday and we received nothing.Called for thunderstorms yesterday and we received nothing once again. If you are not sure whats going on dont forcast it! I guess we are better off just opening the door and doing our own forcast.

    Posted July 14th at 9:14 AM

  27. Working in Utica:

    Hey Saquoit – nobody is holding a gun to your head making you read this blog or the weather forecast. Weather forecasting, in general, is a very complicated process….let alone weather forecasting in CNY and the Mohawk Valley. Go back to bed, Grumpy-pants.

    Posted July 14th at 9:59 AM

  28. fairfield:

    i think this weather is getting the best of everyone

    Posted July 14th at 10:05 AM

  29. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Sauquoit: If you read the blog I posted I said that we have been having issues with convective feedback with the GFS and NAM. While the models were showing plenty of precipitation, we felt that there was a chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm. During the summer, it is a lot more difficult to forecast precipitation because it is more sporadic than a winter storm.

    For the month of July (so far) we have only received 0.25” of rain at KRME.

    Posted July 14th at 10:06 AM

  30. fairfield:

    time for a rain dance!

    Posted July 14th at 10:23 AM

  31. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Sauquoit,

    If there’s a chance for thunderstorms, we’ll mention it. Like Jill said, thunderstorms are sporadic and localized, hitting some places and dodging others. Yesterday’s storms fired up in Western New York, but couldn’t seem to hold together before they hit here. Just because they don’t hit Sauquoit doesn’t mean they weren’t out there yesterday evening.

    Posted July 14th at 10:26 AM

  32. fairfield:

    what conditions qualify a drought

    Posted July 14th at 12:21 PM

  33. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Fairfield:

    Here is a link to the Drought Monitor:

    http://drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_northeast.htm

    Posted July 14th at 12:38 PM

  34. Matt(Cold Brook):

    I just went to the “drought page” and it shows upper New York is not in a drought.I know the service is dry but when you dig down,it’s moist. We had over 9 inches here in June and half in July.I think deep down we are OK.

    Posted July 14th at 3:17 PM

  35. Meg in Herkimer:

    Wow. Downpour in Herkimer the last 15 minutes or so.

    Posted July 14th at 3:22 PM

  36. jessie (ilion):

    great outside pouring out with a nice breeze going to have a smoke outside instead of on my enclosed back porch

    Posted July 14th at 3:26 PM

  37. fairfield:

    radar is very deceiving, showing rain and has been showing rain for over an hour, still waiting for the first drop

    Posted July 14th at 6:55 PM

  38. fairfield:

    FINALLY got some rain, yipee, horaah…

    Posted July 14th at 7:47 PM

  39. Rob (Whitesboro):

    88 for a high at Rome today. We were the hottest area in the Northeast today. This is one of the warmest and humid July’s I remember in a long time. This front better bring me some rain Friday. Storms would even be better but I forgot I don’t get those anymore.

    Posted July 14th at 8:57 PM

  40. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    SPC has us in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Friday and at least a 30% chance of severe thunderstorms Monday. I’m not putting much stock in it though since I can count on one hand how many times a thunderstorm actually hit us here. I’m certainly enjoying this hot humid weather though. This is how summer should be!

    Posted July 14th at 9:13 PM

  41. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Michael,

    At the pace we’re on now, this will easily be one of the hottest July’s on record. 5 90+ days so far for the month, with maybe another one today.

    Posted July 15th at 8:54 AM

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