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Well, I'm spent. I've had enough of this in-between stuff. Just give me snow or rain. That said, we've set back to back precipitation records the last two days. Tuesday saw 1.28" of rain and yesterday 1.02", both of which are the most rain we've received on Feb 5 and 6 ever. We also tied the record highest low temperature ever for Feb 6, at 34 degrees.

Needless to say, that was a recipie for a mess.

That's now behind us and we can look to the future. We have a couple interesting events coming this way. Let's break them down.

Saturday

A storm system will approach from the west. This storm is going to be small, but it could be potent. It has some dynamics (energy) with it that I've been eyeing up since Monday. This will arrive Saturday morning and afternoon, bringing with it some snow. Total precip from this event looks to be about a quarter to a half inch. Temperatures are going to be in the low to mid 30s. Even if this falls as 100% snow, it would only be about 1-3". But, with low to mid 30s, I do suspect a little rain will mix in at times, especially from the Valley south. This is not a big deal.

Of note, is that the dynamics are extremely favorable for the potential of thunder (Total Totals Index is over 60, and this has been consistently forecasted all week. There's also a lot of lift in the snow growth zone.). I'm forecasting it...mostly because I think there's a good chance someone hears a rumble.

Sunday

Then, an Arctic cold front is going to plow through on Sunday morning. This could also have thunder with it, as dynamics are excellent. It could also provide a burst of very heavy snow (one of those paper thin squall lines). Then comes the lake snow.

I basically (this far out) see a three stage event. Stage one, the LES develops up north and slowly drifts south. For a period of time, it appears that winds will line up favorable for Central Oneida and perhaps the Mohawk Valley. Then, things really crank up Sunday afternoon as the core of the Arctic air builds back in over us. 850 mb temperatures (5,000 feet up) should plunge to -20. The lake is currently at +4, so we'd need -9 to generate LES. -20 is more than enough...and we have wiggle room. So when this lake snow develops, I think there's a good chance it is very well organized. Now, here's the question. Winds on Sunday are going to be strong, at times 20-30 mph here on the ground, 40-50 mph a couple thousand feet up. Will this be too much for the lake snows to overcome? I doubt it. I think we'll be ok. And this time around, I do not think we will have a serious problem getting the lake snows well inland.

Temperatures will start the day Sunday in the mid 20s and plummet through the teens on Sunday afternoon. It's going to feel brutal, so be prepared.

Lake snows will continue into Sunday, shift through the I-90 corridor and into the Southern Valleys on Monday, breaking up into multiple bands I think as winds go northerly. Then, while conditions will not be as favorable as Sunday, we'll see the lake snows move back north and perhaps closer or into the Mohawk Valley on Monday afternoon.

A lot of uncetainty at this point, but I do indeed suspect someone is going to be very happy (or frustrated if they don't like snow) on Monday morning.

Next Week & Beyond

As for next week, the Euro is showing a bit of a coastal storm. The GFS is much flatter with the system, but brings us snow...and potentially a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. We'll have to watch this one closely. Not a big storm, but worth a glance.

As for the beyond...first off, there's no Atlantic blocking through about Feb 22. The NAO is positive as could be. So any cold shots that happen into CNY are here for a day or two and then on their way out.

That said, there will be a chance at a couple cold shots. The Arctic and northern Canada have had an outstanding winter. Temperatures remain extremely cold (-30 to -50 right now) up there. The cold is going to maintain itself, if not build further over the next ten days, so we're in good shape. So at times through the end of February, we will tap into pieces of that and we will briefly cool down considerably and have a chance at LES.

Again though, March climatology here in CNY during La Nina winters is colder than normal across the board. Will we maintain cold for a period of time at winter's end? Could the end of winter be blockbuster? We'll see. But it is cold up there.....very cold.

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Comments

Matt Lanza:

One other note. It's rained every day so far this month, and snowed ~ 50% of the days. We're also more than halfway to cracking the top 10 wettest Februarys ever.

Posted February 7th at 10:00 PM
Mark williamson sodus:

Bring It On!!!

Posted February 7th at 10:10 PM
Dana - NH:

Matt; to your add on in #1, is that seasonable with rain almost everyday, should be more snow, though there like equal in a type of way? La Nina trends?

Posted February 7th at 10:24 PM
Matt Lanza:

Dana: It reaks of La Nina. But that is by no means normal. 2.96" of rain so far this month....which is normal for the month from start to finish.

Posted February 7th at 10:26 PM
Matt Lanza:

Seasonal snow totals updated

Posted February 7th at 11:07 PM
Matt (CB):

Well I don't like the forcast for this coming week.Would love to see an early spring.The water has receeded in my yard.Temps at 21,light wind out of east.No new snow overnight.
Not liking the forcast for this week.Hope Matt's prediction about March being cold and snowy are wrong.

Posted February 8th at 7:07 AM
Fran:

Where, oh where is the snow? Pretty depressing winter if you ask me. :(

Posted February 8th at 7:40 AM
Andrea (Utica) (a disgrutled snowmobiler..lol):

Can only hope that this forecast hits the nail on the head and then some!!!! ... sorry to all you non snow lovers but you have April thru October to rejoice! :)

Posted February 8th at 8:15 AM
Laura (Clinton):

I'm not pro or anti snow, but you got to admit that winters are much different than they used to be. The crazy up and down temps, thunderstorms and lack of snow, ect... Whatever the cause NY winters have changed.

Posted February 8th at 9:59 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Boy,lastnights Euro/CMC is giving me flashbacks from V-day last year.Matt is that an actual nor'easter on there for next week or just a wave running up the frontal boundry.

Posted February 8th at 10:08 AM
Jack (Clark Mills):

Quick question. With this lack of snow this winter how's this going to effect our water levels for this spring/summer?

Posted February 8th at 10:28 AM
Matt Lanza:

Jack: Considering we just got 3" of rain (or more), I think we're in good shape as long as we don't go into a drought (which in a La Nina spring, probably isn't a worry). Besides, I think the snowpack is going to gradually return in the coming weeks.

Rob: It looks as though it would be a coastal storm on the Euro/Canadian and even the GFS now...though it's more of an Appalachian runner that works toward the coast (I don't see too much coastal development on the GFS...that's just where the storm tracks). It's ironic, isn't it that it's occurring around V-Day? Unfortunately, that's probably the only similarity, as last year's storm was about as big as you'll ever see! Nevertheless, you can see that even in a somewhat unfavorable pattern, there are still things to watch.

Posted February 8th at 10:46 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Yeah it certainly caught my eye this morning as I really haven't been looking at the models too much lately.Any updates on the LES?The NAM to me looks like 270 but then BUF was saying something like 300-320 flow?

Posted February 8th at 11:41 AM
Matt Lanza:

Rob: Could be a little bit of everything, where everyone shares the snow, which would be nice. I see potential for both...the key is going to be where the Upper low sets up...if it can get a few miles further north, it'll be a tremendous event. If not, this could be like early December where we got 3-6" in Utica, 10"+ south, 10"+ north.

Posted February 8th at 11:50 AM
Mr La Nina:

The most recent blog comment makes both the forecasters and the "snow-lovers" sound very desperate to me. It is always funny to get a good laugh in. I am one of the many the enjoy the "warmer temps" that this winter has thrown at us. You snow lovers have November through March to enjoy your activities. If you don't get the snow, there is always next year....

Posted February 8th at 12:02 PM
Matt Lanza:

MLN: Are you insinuating that I sound desperate? As for the point that there's always next year.. unfortunately, while I do enjoy the warmer weather and better driving conditions as much as anyone, I understand that for some in our viewing area, there is not always next year...some businesses live or die by snow up here and unfortunately without snow, it hurts the economy.

Posted February 8th at 12:32 PM
James:

There are many of us who enjoy all seasons in CNY. I have lived in this area all my life and never understood why those who hate the cold and snow spend half the year complaining about it. Why not make yourselves happy and find an area with a climate that you enjoy? Matt: Desperate no, accurate thus far yes.

Posted February 8th at 2:00 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

So the bulk of the snow is going to be Sunday?? I am just wondering because I have to work this weekend and would like to know when I am going to have to break out the snowplower!!

Posted February 8th at 2:22 PM
Lisa:

Is there any accumlation amounts for sunday?

Posted February 8th at 3:34 PM
Andrea (utica):

I used to be one of those anti-snow fanatics. Hated the cold. Hated the snow. Was miserable from November through March. Then i discovered snowmobiling. Figured if i was going to live in the NE might as well find something to do to pass the winter. Now the season flies by (way too quickly if you ask me). Can actually enjoy this season right along with the other 3. MrLaNina...basking in the disappointment of others? How very noble of you.

Posted February 8th at 3:36 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Current NAM is really latching onto the LES now.I think we'll see some Watches issued somewhere in the snowbelts pretty soon.

Posted February 8th at 3:41 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Matt is there still any signs of wind shear in the low levels?

Posted February 8th at 3:49 PM
Matt Lanza:

I'll put out some sort of accumulation map for the full event later tonight...just a rough guess. At this point, LES would start in the St. Lawrence Valley on Saturday night/Sunday AM, crash south Sunday morning, then set up shop on the Tug Hill Sunday afternoon and evening, stay there through the early AM Monday and then drop into the Valley and points south on Monday. Wind shear is minimal at this point. The NAM is out to lunch with some aspects of this event at the moment. I am leaning on the GFS right now. More later.

Posted February 8th at 3:57 PM
vin(NYC):

Matt, I am a NYC snow and snowmobile lover. Your forcast's are awesome and they help me plan my trips to OLD Forge. Bring on the snow! How do you feel about the snow conditions for OLD Forge and Tug for President's weekend?

Posted February 8th at 4:54 PM
Matt Lanza:

Vin: Thanks! I like the looks of things by President's Day Weekend. I think conditions will improve this weekend and next week. So you should be in good shape.

Posted February 8th at 5:10 PM
dan (lee center):

Matt u run an awesome blog hope we get alot of snow here on stokes hill.Have u had a chance to see all the ice still on the trees up in boonville seen a bunch of broken lims

Posted February 8th at 6:31 PM
Matt Lanza:

Dan: Thanks. I hope so too! I haven't gotten to see the ice up there yet unfortunately.

Snowfall forecast for tomorrow

First thoughts on LES Sunday-Monday (not our official forecast, just some thoughts). More on all this later.

Posted February 8th at 6:42 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Boy I like that First thought map for Sunday/Monday! I think we all would take 3-6" inches without complaint. I even noticed I am right on the border of 6-12" inches. That would be REALLY NICE!!! Matt, for the Saturday event, is there a reason why you have the area just north of here in the 2-5" inch range? Is it because they stand a better chance of just plain snow and no rain which would cut back on accumulation, or elevation enhancement?

Posted February 8th at 8:18 PM
Matt Lanza:

Michael: A little elevation enhancement and the fact that the models have been consistently spitting out a little more precip just north of you. Clippers tend to do that it seems.

Posted February 8th at 8:29 PM
Brian:

Matt, you are the most accurate meteorologist in the area. Just wanted to say thanks for the great work you do. I see Old Forge is in for some good snowfall!! Too bad I'm going to be away from the area until Thursday.

Posted February 8th at 9:12 PM
Matt Lanza:

Alright, since I got sidetracked trying to get our weather station uploading on Weather Underground, no new entry. Here's my thoughts.

Lake snow will develop Saturday night in the St. Lawrence Valley. An Arctic cold front will sweep through CNY on Sunday morning. This will be accompanied by a period of intense snow squalls and perhaps some thunder. It may be white-out conditions for 20-40 minutes before it tapers to flurries. A quick inch or so is possible from this. Once that Arctic front moves east, much colder air will begin to pour in. The lake snow will re-align on a west wind, so northern Oneida, Lewis, northern Herkimer will be in the target zone. It looks like a disturbance aloft swings through later on Sunday, so I don't see the LES dropping much further south than, say, Boonville at this point. The band will inch northward Sunday afternoon and evening, and then everyone will see a bit of light snow. Then, as winds shift into the WNW or NW, that band will come south. I have some questions as to how far south, but I am assuming it gets to the Mohawk Valley, if not a little further south. That's where the band will sit into Monday, perhaps further shifting south and west toward the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes. Then, as warmer air begins to try and move in ahead of Tuesday's system, the lake snows will lift back north and eventually weaken by Tuesday morning. The maps are laid out in comment 27...still some questions as to how this pans out, but it will be interesting.

Posted February 8th at 9:44 PM
Matt Lanza:

Thanks, Brian!

Posted February 8th at 9:45 PM
dan (leeCenter):

Matt, how much of are total snowfall is lake effect? It seems the only decent snow we get is from the lake and ocasionaly a nor easter if it stays cold. if not for the lake there wont be any snowmobileing i dont think

Posted February 8th at 9:46 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Matt i hope that there will be an updated snowfall map b/c marcy doest look like it will get much snow

Posted February 8th at 9:55 PM
mike m(binghamton):

up at greek peak tonight and it snowed the entire time from 4-9 pm, mostly light snow but moderate at times. its a good thing it was snowing bc they need it badly. they received about and inch so far.

Posted February 8th at 10:00 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, models are spitting out some decent QPF saturday east of i81, if this is all sticking snow we may end up with 3-4 inches widespread...just wanted to throw that possibilty out there. also my other sources are saying a widespread 4 inches is possible from LES down here, they are saying it has the look of an earlier LES event which did just that. how is the LES looking down this way, i know you out cortland county in the 3-6 inch zone what about broome county? and finally, srry for so many questions, how is tuesdays storm looking?

Posted February 8th at 10:10 PM
Matt Lanza:

Matt: Well, no updated map tonight. 3-6" would be decent for the Mohawk Valley though.

Dan: Interestingly enough, this year in Utica at least... 11.1" of our 54.2" (20.5%) of our snow is lake effect. Last year, 55.7% of our snow came from LES. Without actual storms this year (especially that mid-December one), we'd be in real bad shape.

Posted February 8th at 10:10 PM
Matt Lanza:

Mike: First off, the majority of what's falling in the Midwest today and tonight has been rain, with temperatures similar to what we're expecting tomorrow, so I would shocked to see 3-4" tomorrow, except in the Adirondacks. There are some similarities with the upcoming LES event to the one you had in December. I think you'll end up with at least a few inches, but probably not as extreme as December. Tuesday's storm is a clipper, with a modest amount of moisture. This far out, it has the look of a 3-6" event, but that's a lonnnnng way off right now.

Posted February 8th at 10:13 PM
Matt Lanza:

If anyone's interested, the Weather Underground link is here.

Posted February 8th at 10:20 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

GFS has the nor'easter now for next week.Looks cold enough for heavy snow between Albany and Utica.

Posted February 8th at 11:39 PM
tom(east utica):

rob,i know matt said next week storm may be in range for 3 to 6 inches,now that it looks like from what you see a noreaster will that be a direct hit for our area and will it be a bigger storm than thought?i know still way to early but possible.

Posted February 9th at 12:06 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

We'll have to wait and see Tom.It's good to see it on there though.This would follow Tuesday's system if it were to happen.

Posted February 9th at 12:17 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

thanks matt for your input.i hope tuesdays storm at least stays all snow. 3-6 sounds fine with me, its better than rain.

Posted February 9th at 1:00 AM
Matt Lanza:

Predicting snow amounts this far in advance is akin to throwing a dart at a board. At this point, you want to see trends. I have high confidence in my forecast through Tuesday. Tuesday through Thursday I have extremely low confidence because numerous different model solutions have been offered as of late. Now, as Rob said, seeing a storm out there is a good sign. Now, the goal is to keep it...and maybe backpedal it a few miles inland. If the GFS were gospel, the heavy snow would be in the Catskills/Berkshires/Greens, with moderate snow back into CNY. Back this thing up a few miles and we're golden. What would truly be incredible is if we can get a big storm on Wednesday...being one year to the date from the onset of snow in the V-Day storm. The Canadian isn't as nice, but it's still volatile. Time will tell.

Posted February 9th at 1:01 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

lets hope for snow!!!

Posted February 9th at 1:53 AM
Dale B.:

I hope we have an early end to this misserable winter. Bring on spring!

Posted February 9th at 7:09 AM
Denys (east winfield:

Just to add my 2 cents about the winter situation....I don't really like the cold. But, if it's winter, then I want to see some snow. Isn't that the whole point of winter?? I want to see a good old fashioned snow storm! One that dumps a bunch of snow. Remember the good old days.....

Posted February 9th at 7:44 AM
Lisa(oriskanY):

DO you think driving is going to be an issue today?

Posted February 9th at 8:25 AM
MR EL NINO:

you to just wait till its my turn!lol

Posted February 9th at 11:29 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Nice moderate snow here now with good sized flakes - 30 degrees.

Posted February 9th at 11:47 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

It's been all snow down here as well.Coming down pretty good.

Posted February 9th at 11:56 AM
mike m(binghamton):

all snow here too 32.2 degrees. Central PA had an unexpected 2-4 inch snowfall today( places like Harrisburg and state college)they were forecasting rain snow mix to rain at these locations, but instead got all snow. not sure if this will carry over into CNY, but perhaps we too might see 2-4 inches?

Posted February 9th at 12:04 PM
randy Vitullo:

Any new news on the LES potential for Sunday / Monday for the Utica area through, say Holland Patent? On the issue of the battle above; we all have to pay bills to upkeep our homes (or at least, most either do or eventually will have to). Not everyone who likes snow doesn't pay bills. I own a very large home with many acres of land. I have upkeep, heating bills, etc as well. I happen to be a skier who owns a snowmobile to groom the ski trails. Yes, it costs money to run and maintain the machine. But, you know what? If you love winter and snow, you make ends meet however you can; so that you can get the best out of one of mother nature's most beautiful seasons (winter). I do just that. As a side note, many businesses depend on snow for their existence. Parts of our economy do benefit from snow. This is not an aruable point. It is fact. Think snow................

Posted February 9th at 2:24 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

This is a weather board go elsewhere with this nonsense.

Matt- How is the lake effect looking for tom????

Posted February 9th at 3:10 PM
mike m (binghamton):

any accumulations out there today, i guess i was wrong, at least around here, we only got a half inch so far, the temp is just a bit too warm.

Posted February 9th at 3:16 PM
ken:

mike,no accumilations here in utica.was snowing hard for a while but not cold enough to stick.any news on les for utica or for storm next week?

Posted February 9th at 3:20 PM
LM Whitesboro:

As to post #63 Amen, Jon! On to the other subjects. Lets all calm down. I know the winter doldrums get to us all but lets be thankful for our area. Look at the areas just nailed with tornados. California with fires and mudslides, hurricanes down south. Come on now. What do we REALLY have to deal with? I consider us very lucky when compared to alot of other places in our great country.

Posted February 9th at 3:30 PM
Jake (Clark Mills):

Wow!! Leave for a couple hours an come back to a major hissyfit by some who only know how to type in capital letters. Anyways, snowed pretty good here for a while, but nothing sticking. Far as the weather goes, long as we don't get a lot of freezing rain or pounded with a lot of wet snow like we had last year it don't bother me. I don't like it, but if you live here you deal with it. Right?

Posted February 9th at 3:45 PM
Amy - Remsen:

Couple of inches of fresh snow here in Remsen, light snow now with 31 degrees. Anxious to see how the LES pans out for our area tomorrow and Monday, looks like we're sitting in a decent spot, if things don't change.

Posted February 9th at 3:46 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Snow just stopped here - 2.5" of wet stuff - cars stuck trying to get up the hill all day. 30 degrees.

Posted February 9th at 4:14 PM
cs:

I'm originally from Oneida County area. Man I miss the snow. I live the Asheville, NC area. So far 5.5" about 15-20 miles NW of Asheville. I often check your snow blog just see what is going on weather wise.
Asheville is also having a snow drought and the daffodils are starting poke out the ground...which is way too early.

Posted February 9th at 4:50 PM
Lisa-oriskany:

Meterologists must be busy.. How much snow for tonight?

Posted February 9th at 5:39 PM
kelly:

Jeff do you know where the snow is suppose to be I live in Mohawk and I thought today we were suppose to get thunder snow and we got just a dusting with no thunder. Just wondering thanks

Posted February 9th at 5:52 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Kelly I thought that was for tom. when the front pases through. Not 100% sure but that is what I think they were saying. All the lake effect will be after that front plows through.

Posted February 9th at 6:13 PM
Bob Jones:

Mrs Lanina, stop trying to change the subject. Again, you think snow is bad, imagine tornados or hurricanes. At least we don't have to deal with that around here. All the other garbage you've been saying that has absolutely ZERO to do with snow and the economy. Stick to the subject or we wont take you very seriously.

Posted February 9th at 6:45 PM
Jack (Clark Mills):

Take lanina seriously? LOL!!!! No snow here yet, at least around this area this has been a dull winter so far.

Posted February 9th at 6:55 PM
Bill Kardas:

Evening folks. Our weather blog has been having issues all day. I'm not able to post any new entries tonight because of that, but I can still post comments. Looks like an active 36 hours with snow showers tonight, snow squalls tomorrow morning, and lake effect tomorrow afternoon-Monday afternoon. Buckle up.

Posted February 9th at 7:00 PM
Bob Jones:

Glad someone can appreciate my sarcasm :)

Posted February 9th at 7:19 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Only 1/2" of snow here today.Snowing heavily now though.

Posted February 9th at 7:27 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

now onto weather. ended up with a little bit of snow here today, it really only stuck ontop of the old snow not on roads or driveways. tomorrow the artic front will come through giving us a few inches (1-3") except plenty more across northern oneida aand tug hill region. LES drops south sunday night, but utica will prbably be spared the worst as usual. maybe 2-4 right in town with potentially alot more near rome and points west and even SW of utica. im not sure about eastern vally towns Dolgelvile, stratford, herkimer. they may end up close to uticas amounts or a bit less.

Posted February 9th at 9:39 PM
Bill Kardas:

Just made a new watch/warning page. Check it out.

Posted February 9th at 9:43 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

Cool, WKTV got an online weather station. I really like all the improvements that's been happening in the weather department over the last 3 months or so.

I was looking at some models and saw that the LES looks to be good and heavy come Sunday night. Bill or Jill have any expectations?

Posted February 9th at 9:47 PM
Bill Kardas:

Mike,

Thanks for the feedback. We have a lot of new capabilities with this new system that we are still discovering. We're working on making a webpage with current temperatures, radar, and other goodies. Here's the blueprint .

As for the weather, tomorrow's forecast is going to be tricky. A squall line should set up and move through by late morning. A burst of heavy snow could reduce visibility for a brief time. After that, the winds will get pretty strong at times into the afternoon with sustained winds between 20-30mph with gusts up to 40mph. Lake effect will get organized later in the afternoon, and set up north of town. The winds shift more northwesterly tomorrow evening, allowing that band to shift south. This is where things get really interesting. The Mohawk Valley looks to be under the gun this time around. It's a little early to start talking about accumulations for tomorrow night, but by the time we walk into Monday I think many of us will be shoveling.

Posted February 9th at 9:57 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Really if we ignore them they will go away....

Posted February 9th at 10:20 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Matt I was wondering if there was any chance for dry air mixing in after the frontal passage.Just curious because things aren't looking good down stream.

Posted February 9th at 10:27 PM
Bill Kardas:

Jeff,

The lake band stays north Sunday and for a portion of Sunday night. However, it does shift south near or after daybreak on Monday. If this happens a few hours sooner, we would see accumulations even in the valley. Our in house model is suggesting that this will take place sooner too. It bears watching and with lake effect you can never be too certain.

Posted February 9th at 10:31 PM
MR EL NINO:

SNOW SNOW SNOW for president 08 !!!!! lol Bring on the lake effect,and that thundersnow!!!! I love it!!!!!

Posted February 9th at 10:32 PM
Bill Kardas:

Jeff, Check it out on the 18z Regional ETA. Notice the shift between 39hrs and 42hrs. Subtle, but interesting :)

Posted February 9th at 10:35 PM
stevo (rome):

Hey Bill? does that mean rome might be under the gun too? I Think we are a 290 flow.

Posted February 9th at 10:36 PM
Lisa:

Is there any sign of Spring soon?? haha..j/k So the utica area will prb be a messy commute to work Monday morning?

Posted February 9th at 10:37 PM
Bill Kardas:

Stevo,

Rome has a better shot than the Mohawk Valley that's for sure. I just looked at the 00z NAM and it does bother me. What's going to happen is that a secondary trough will move through late tomorrow night and switch the wind direction from west to northwest. The problem though is that the models are trending this feature to move in just a few hours later, and that could reduce the potential snowfall. We want that feature to move in sooner than later in order to see snowfall in the valley Sunday night and into Monday. Either way, it will happen...just a matter of when. We'd get more snow if it was sooner though.

Posted February 9th at 10:41 PM
stevo (rome):

I agree with lisa 100%

Posted February 9th at 10:45 PM
Lisa:

Thumbs Up Stevo!

Posted February 9th at 10:46 PM
Anne:

We got back a couple hours ago from visiting my Dad just north of Old Forge, and Wow, what a difference in weather. On the way back we went from having fairly heavy snow (lake effect?) north of Marcy/Deerfield Hill to NOTHING in New Hartford and south. Its pretty amazing what a small distance will make when you're dealing with lake effect.
I just wish some more of the white stuff would fall here in Sauquoit. I'm getting sick of seeing brown.

Posted February 9th at 10:46 PM
Jonathan (formerly of Clark Mills, now in Oriskany):

I must really say how impressed I am with our current WKTV team. It is amazing how close we have been to the freezing mark this past week, and with each burst of precipitation that comes through, and the challenges that have come in forecasting for the different terrains, elevations and other nuances this unique area has to provide, I have a new found respect for our meteorologists. You guys (and Jill!) have been on the money for the most part. So I just wanted to give my thumbs up.

As for the other situations that found their way onto this board, it makes me sad. For one, I enjoy all four seasons this area has. How lucky are we that we have the ability to ski/snowmobile/sled in the winter, enjoy the blossoming flowers and trees in the spring, play golf/head to Sylvan Beach/camp/cookout in the summer, and watch the leaves change colors in the fall. Not every area in our country offers this. Just my two cents. I have bills and debt like everyone else...I just deal with it.

Posted February 9th at 11:09 PM
mike m(binghamton):

i hope tuesday and wednesdays storm is more significant than what the models are saying now, currently they are only showing a period of light snow, we really need a coastal low to form. as for tomorrows LES it is going to be another close call for the mohawk valley, and just based on climatology usually the valley is spared hvy snow, however there is still a small chance this will not be the case tomorrow night.
Matt, bill, how is the LES looking for cortland and broome counties; will the finger lakes become active, or will the winds never go that NNW?

Posted February 10th at 12:23 AM
Walt-Norwich:

We had a quick burst of snow at about 9:00PM and then back to a mist...just enough to coat the roads...32f here at 10:30PM

Posted February 10th at 12:25 AM
Jonathan (Oriskany):

Mike, I think the valley could get a quick burst...enough to make for some white knuckle driving for a short period.

Posted February 10th at 12:27 AM
mike m ( binghamton):

deffinetly agree with that jon, however i dont see the valley (utica) getting over 6 inches as of right now. areas like Rome and stratford may end up closer too if not over the 6 inch mark.

Posted February 10th at 12:46 AM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

30.6 degrees with flurries. We picked up a total of 4" inches of snow here today. At 12:45a.m. we also had THUNDER SNOW with heavy snow for about a half an hour. At first I thought I was hearing things, but when my mother pulled in the driveway, she also said she saw lighning on the way to Salisbury. Main and secondary roads are all snow covered. Plows have not been by in about 2-3hrs. Take it easy out there tonight and let the road crews do their job.

Posted February 10th at 2:16 AM
Lisa:

Do you think the morning work commute is going to be a nasty one in the Utica/Rome area?

Posted February 10th at 7:12 AM
Piseco Lake:

Heavy snow currently falling ahead of the cold front. Several inches received on Saturday, didn't measure but it looked like 4 inches or so. I anticipate several inches of LES this afternoon, will update if and when it occurs. Usually the LES loses its punch in the Hoffmeister/Morehouse area several miles to our west and results in flurries here in Piseco.

Posted February 10th at 7:31 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Arctic front dropped 1.5" of snow here this morning.Snow stuck to just about anything possibe.

Posted February 10th at 8:42 AM
Jodi ~ (Ilion):

Why do all the storms this year keep skirting around everywhere down here and dumping on the north country? I know they always get a lot more snow than the utica area but there has been a big difference this year. Does it have to do with the jet stream or winds or is it just plain luck?

Posted February 10th at 8:50 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Well not sure where the front is through yet. I have not seen a temperature drop yet but the dew point has plummeted the last hour a quick 8 degrees. Must be right on the border.....Is the wind still ging to be an issue later today???

Posted February 10th at 8:53 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Rob - I think the true arctic front is still a couple of hours away - looks like we get a good burst with that and then watch the LES get setup. Picked up 4" yesterday and an inch so far this morning. 28 degrees currently.

Posted February 10th at 8:54 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Surface plot map has it coming through SYR right now.So maybe we'll get another burst.

Posted February 10th at 9:05 AM
Stacey
http://Richfield Springs:

Matt,
do you think we will see anything from the cold front breaking through this far south of Utica? We got about an inch or two overnight, but that was about it. I would love to see a good snowfall. Can really see the lawn in some places.

Posted February 10th at 9:26 AM
Stacey (Richfield Springs):

Whoops first blog.. sorry forgot to add where I lived :) see above

Posted February 10th at 9:28 AM
Dain in Cold Brook:

I got 6 inches of snow overnight...I have to get the snowblower out...Yawn....

Posted February 10th at 10:25 AM
Rob(whitesboro):

Nothing but sunshine here and 33 degrees.Mel you were right about the placement of the front.Temp has actually gone up here.You can clearly see the squall line associated with the front in WNY.Visability dropped below 1/4 mile when it pushed through BUF.

Posted February 10th at 10:30 AM
Matt Lanza:

Ok folks, the blog is back open on wktv.com. I am cleaning up the mess and we can continue focusing on weather talk from here on in. Thanks for your patience.

Posted February 10th at 11:20 AM
Gary(vernon center):

Any reports on the squall line headed through syracuse?

Posted February 10th at 11:30 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Yeah just got back from church and the roads were all melting in the sun - my temp shot up to 35 degrees - unfortunately it won't be enough to melt the ice in my driveway - looks like the squall line is closing in.

Posted February 10th at 11:34 AM
Jill Reale:

Expect tricky travel over the next few hours as the arctic front moves in with a heavy squall line that will produce whiteout conditions and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. We had a report of thunder and lightning in Herkimer at 830 this morning. Behind the front, temperatures will drop and wind will pick up even more.

Posted February 10th at 11:36 AM
Jill Reale:

Sorry for the double post

Posted February 10th at 11:37 AM
Mel (Westernville):

Looks real impressive on wsyr's radar!

Posted February 10th at 11:39 AM
Matt Lanza:

Arctic front is barrelling through. Visibilities in this squall line are under 1/4 mile over a widespread area with blinding heavy snow. If you know of anyone out and about, let them know that they're soon going to have about 20 minutes of whiteout and should stay put until it passes.

Posted February 10th at 11:54 AM
Tim (Thendara):

How much LES snow for the Old Forge area for this event?

Posted February 10th at 11:57 AM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Still sunshining here. Interesting enough took a look at a PWS in Auburn, they had a 10 degree temp drop in 20 minutes and winds up to 40mph.

Posted February 10th at 12:26 PM
Karen~ Westmoreland:

Snowing here in Westmoreland and very gusty winds have started as well.

Posted February 10th at 12:37 PM
Barb (Lee Center):

Visibility - clear to zero in 10 seconds. Cannot even see across the street. Son is on the Thruway in Syracuse heading this way. States that it is nearly impossible to drive. Took him over 2 1/2 hours to get from Rochester to Syracuse. Wind is horrible. Reminds me of Valentine's Day last year.

Posted February 10th at 12:37 PM
Jan Sterling:

At 1240 local time Oneida, NY: Vis reduced to 1/8 mi in heavy snow. Winds gusting to 35 kts.

Posted February 10th at 12:39 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Front hit here at 12:35 -visibility down to 100 yards

Posted February 10th at 12:41 PM
Donna (Alder Creek):

Snowing here but no wind yet. Staring to come down faster.

Jodi in Ilion - you want snow I'll be more and happy to truck you down some snow from here. Less of it that I have to look at!!! :)

Posted February 10th at 12:41 PM
Gary(vernon Center):

Snowing extremly hard. Visability about 20ft.

Posted February 10th at 12:55 PM
MRS LANINA:

7" new Snow in Salisbury,with Sun shining & nice 35 degrees.

Posted February 10th at 12:56 PM
Matt HP:

Whiteout Conditions here. Visibility about 50 ft

Posted February 10th at 12:57 PM
Sarah:

Very heavy snow in North Utica...low visability and windy.

Posted February 10th at 12:58 PM
Matt Lanza:

From a driving and travel standpoint, there is nothing worse than an Arctic front like this. From a meteorological standpoint, there are far neater things than this. Snow should taper off from west to east in the next 45-90 minutes. LES will organize this afternoon up north. Refer to the weather section of wktv.com for forecasted amounts.

Posted February 10th at 1:02 PM
Gary(vernon Center):

in addition to my last post... persistant thunderclaps!

Posted February 10th at 1:06 PM
lb (Cedarville):

We're in the thick of it now! ZIP for visibility. Ice from days ago blowing off the trees and hitting the house. Thanks for the warning earlier.

Posted February 10th at 1:27 PM
Matt H (Mount Upton):

At 1:26 it blew in here. Whipping winds and whiteout.

Posted February 10th at 1:28 PM
Barb (East Winfield):

White out conditions here, can't see across the street, which happens to be Rt. 20. Snow coming down or blowing sideways. Visibility about 30-50 foot. Cars trying to travel are going about 5mph with flashers on. Has lasted about 20-25 minutes now.

Posted February 10th at 1:32 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

That was a wild blast.Snow has tappered to flurries here.Visability still under a mile due to blowing snow.Received 3" of snow since early this morning.

Posted February 10th at 1:43 PM
Barb (East Winfield):

Visibility 2-3 times better, can see there is a house across the street now! Visibility about 100 feet now, but it gets less with each wind gust. I can see now that it is snowing, not just blowing snow.

Posted February 10th at 1:44 PM
Scott (Holland Patent):

@ 12:45ish.... Just got finished snow blowing my driveway and out of nowhere the front came through and we had whiteout conditions. Visibility was no more than 20 yards at one point. I took a short video that I'll try to email to Matt. (not sure if it will work)

Posted February 10th at 1:46 PM
Gary (east Utica):

Wow! Whiteout conditions on the east side of Utica. Took the old Wagoneer out for a spin and visibility was about zero; needless to say, I'm back home. Haven't seen conditions like this in years! Going back out for a walk!

Posted February 10th at 1:48 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

White out conditions here as well. Temp down to 21.1. Cars have their flashers on SR 12.

Posted February 10th at 1:51 PM
Matt Lanza:

I think the a lot of the appeal of this event so far is that we have not had a daytime squall line like this all winter. The two or three other times it's happened, it's occurred after sunset. Interesting to see nonetheless.

Posted February 10th at 1:53 PM
Mel (Westernville):

Snow has stopped now - temp dropped to 22 degrees from 35 in 15 minutes time

Posted February 10th at 1:57 PM
Big Mike by the falls in Forestport:

A few minutes ago had a blast of wind 39 mph, impressive, also had whiteout conditions, clearing up now, winds averaging 10-15 with highes in the mid 20's. Temp falling into the teens........

Posted February 10th at 1:57 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

State Police have closed State RT28 From the Village of Mohawk south to the County line (Vickerman Hill).

Posted February 10th at 2:32 PM
Lisa-Oriskany:

What is to expect for the rest of today?? and is the morning commute looking to be a messy one?

Posted February 10th at 2:53 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

Wow, snow and wind have come and gone. Well the snow part its still windy out there. Interesting 10 mile hike to work. Roads are slick but they have been worse and DPW guys are out working.

Posted February 10th at 3:06 PM
Naomi
http://Deerfield:

Matt, This is a truly humbling experience, to be able to sit and look out my kitchen window on "the hill" and literally watch this storm unfold as I read the comments of the others, as they track the storm from vernon to binghamton! Right on ALL of you!! What FUN! I wouldn't want to be ANYWHERE in the world except upstate NY. I look forward to days like this all SUMMER! As soon as we experience our first 95 degree day with humidity!! Then I simply head up to Brantingham Lake and kick back, next best thing to AC! Matt, you hit this one on the head. Way to go. Keep up the great work. Now, if you can convince Time Warner Cable to broadcast WKTV in the Lowville-Boonville area that would be terrific.-Naomi-(under the towers Deerfield)

Posted February 10th at 3:08 PM
Matt Lanza:

Lisa: I think we're golden for the rest of today...maybe a few flurries, squalls, etc. But blowing snow would be the biggest issue, mostly on hilltops. As for the AM commute, I yield to Mr. Kardas on that. I honestly have only done nowcasting this weekend, no forecasting.

Naomi: Thank you :). We're having a pretty good winter in the Wx Department I think. The blog has helped tremendously too. So...enjoy the snow...hopefully some lake snow too eventually!

Posted February 10th at 3:25 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Just a quick note. At 8:25 a.m. this morning, I also heard thunder and about 5-10 minutes later we had an incredibly heavy burst of snow. I just always seem to be in the right place at the right time, as last night at 12:45 a.m. we also had thunder snow! I was outside shoveling both times.

Posted February 10th at 3:37 PM
Ken ( S Utica - Hillcrest Manor):

Lake effect and wind chill advisories now up for all of Oneida county for the overnight and tomorrow....looks a very wintry night ahead, any new thoughts from the wktv crew on accumulations, looks like a pretty good band already in place to the north.

Posted February 10th at 3:42 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

LES Warnings up along and north of the thruway.Michael I think I heard thunder this morning as well.It was a complete whiteout when I got out of bed.I thought that was the actuall arctic front.

Posted February 10th at 3:48 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

Lake Effect Snow Warnings now in effect for Oneida, Madison, and Onondaga counties, along with Wind Chill advisories and Wind Advisories. I-81 between Sandy Creek and Pulaski is also closed due to numerous accidents and whiteout conditions.

Posted February 10th at 3:49 PM
Matt Lanza:

Anyone outside of the lake snow tonight, where skies clear...keep a look north for the Aurora. Possibility of seeing it.

Posted February 10th at 3:59 PM
Michael- (Dolgeville):

I thought so too Rob! When I went to bed at 4a.m., I was watching that line of snow showers and squalls move toward the Syracuse area, and I thought that was the arctic front. I got up at 8a.m. looked out the window and heavy snow was falling. Went outside to shovel, and heard a good clap of thunder. Within a few hours though, the sun came out and temperatures hadn't dropped so I knew it didn't come through yet. Of course we all knew when it came through this afternoon! I live in town and I literally could not see the telephone pole across the street. Pretty awesome though! Just hope nobody was on the roads at that time.

Posted February 10th at 3:59 PM
Laura (Paris Hill):

Winds gusting 45-50+ MPH right now. If it starts to snow things are going to go down hill fast. Temp is 16.4.

Posted February 10th at 4:22 PM
Matt(Marcy):

when it was snowing at 130 today, holy crap, I was driving on Oriskany boulevard and I couldn't even see the car next to me. currently 18.5 degrees and sunshine sustained winds of 10MPH and just over 7 inches today from the two squall lines

Posted February 10th at 4:45 PM
Brian:

Check out webcam in Old Forge. Wish I was there.

Posted February 10th at 4:55 PM
Dan:

Rt. 26 is closed from west leyden north

Posted February 10th at 5:08 PM
Denys (East Winfield):

5:00pm. 10 degrees and very windy, with unbelievable wind gusts. We got 4 inches of new snow today. During the "white out" this afternoon, we had no visability. I couldn't see the end of my deck! (10×10) Amazing!

Posted February 10th at 5:12 PM
Jeff (Southern Hills):

What an amazing looking LES band up on the tug right now.

Posted February 10th at 5:18 PM
Ken:

According to website for NY Transportation Federation, Rt28 from 168 in Mohawk to Rt 20 in Richfield, will be closed until 2/12 because of poor visibility. http://www3.travelinfony.com/carsgoogle

Posted February 10th at 5:25 PM
John:

All clear in Poland but still windy.

Posted February 10th at 5:33 PM
Becky in Whitesboro:

We live in Whitesboro near the NYS thruway, are we on the border of the 5-10 or 3-6?? The weather channel had a statment scrolling on the bottom an hour or so ago and said the thruway and north of the thruway 5-10. That was the first I had heard that we were going to get any significant snows..

Posted February 10th at 5:52 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Currently were getting heavy snow. Winds are W at 28mph. We have had a few gust over 40 mph this afternoon. the Roads are treacherous due to blowing and drifting. visibility is zero. so far today we have picked up 8 inches.

Posted February 10th at 6:30 PM
Alex:

How long till the band shifts out of the north country???

Posted February 10th at 6:40 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Lake band in Georgian Bay is slowly drifting south.This is going to get real interesting if we get a connection.This thing looks very healthy as it is now.

Posted February 10th at 6:44 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Just went out with the dog. The winds are howling you can't see your hand in front of your face:) It is still coming down very hard.

Posted February 10th at 7:14 PM
Jeff Moore (Port Leyden):

Still snowing heavy at times in Port Leyden. Windy at times also. This has been alot of fun to watch all day, finally a heavy snow storm for us instead of west of us or north or south.

Posted February 10th at 7:24 PM
Cindy (ilion):

It is 11 degrees here and the wind is howling also. I wish we would get some good snow. We received maybe 2 inches this morning and before that had almost nothing on the ground. I'm hoping that the lake snow drifts south for a while and sticks around. I'm almost certain that that isn't our luck though.

Posted February 10th at 7:31 PM
kelly:

Does anyone have any idea what to expect for the mohawk valley meaning the Ilion, Mohawk area for tomarrow?

Posted February 10th at 7:32 PM
Matt Lanza:

Kelly, refer to Bill's snowfall forecast map for Monday.

Posted February 10th at 7:39 PM
bill:

is 3to 7 inches the most utica can get or is there anyway we can get into the bigger snowfall amounts?

Posted February 10th at 8:03 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Becky how much snow did you get in the last hour?Just wondering because ratios have to be 30/40:1

Posted February 10th at 8:17 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

LES band is still healthy. I would estimate the rate is two inches per hour at this time. The Winds are still causing zero Visibility at times.

Posted February 10th at 8:21 PM
Rob(whitesboro):

Thanks..looks like it still is slowly moving south.This band could very well explode over Rome if we can hook up downstream.It's slowly coming down this way.

Posted February 10th at 8:27 PM
Mike(Rome):

Would you consider Rome to be in 6 to 12 inches?

Posted February 10th at 8:30 PM
Lori from Herkimer:

Thank you for this great site! It's addicting and I'm so impressed by all of the weather people. Your understanding of the weather is greatly appreciated!

Posted February 10th at 8:31 PM
Becky (West Leyden):

Rob... We have picked up about 5 inches since six pm.

Posted February 10th at 8:32 PM
Anthony (N.Marcy):

Rob,

Definately looks like Georgian Bay will be connecting very nicely as the band heads south.....starting to see signs of that on the radar

Posted February 10th at 8:53 PM
Mike S (Port Leyden):

9.5" since noon, for a storm total of 16.5". Most single day accumulation for me of the year.

Posted February 10th at 9:16 PM
Matt(Marcy):

Matt when can we expect this band to setup in the mohawk valley because it's moved but very little

Posted February 10th at 9:53 PM
Scott (Holland Patent):

9:50 PM. Lake Effect is starting to fall right now in Holland Patent. Ready for the monday morning trek to work. (Should have been a teacher!)

Posted February 10th at 9:55 PM
mike m ( binghamton):

matt, id say after midnight in marcy and toward daybreak in Utica.

Posted February 10th at 9:56 PM
Bill Kardas:

New entry is up!

Posted February 10th at 10:00 PM

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