A Monday Mix, Then a Melt

Posted January 26th, 2013 by Adam Musyt. 87 comments

Our climb out of the deep freeze still looks to be on track for midweek, but before it occurs there will be a few bumps along the road.  It’s been a nice and tranquil start to the weekend with highs today reaching 16 degrees.  This is still below average, but not as harsh as the single-digit highs of Wednesday and Thursday.  And thanks to the sunshine and relatively light wind for much of the daylight hours, today was a comparatively nice midwinter day.

 

This evening a very weak trough of low pressure is scooting across southern Canada.  As this trough crosses Lake Ontario it may be just enough to kick off a brief snow shower and some weak lake effect snow.  Winds are expected to align along a 300-310 degree compass direction and such a flow means  that the best chance of seeing a fluffy inch of snow will be south and west of Utica, with a coating possible just about everywhere else across our area.  The lake effect will only be localized and fleeting, and as high pressure builds in late tonight, clearing skies and tanking temperatures will be the rule.

 

This high pressure ridge will promote sunny skies for much of our Sunday.  Thanks to the sunshine temperatures will climb a bit more, likely to around 20 degrees for a high.

 

Our weather will begin to change Sunday Night and Monday.  Clouds will increase as a warm front approaches from the midsection of the nation.  As this warm front gets ever closer to Central New York, we’ll likely see some snow break out during the morning on Monday.  As the front crosses our area later Monday and Monday night, the snow will mix with and change to ice and then rain.  Latest data suggests a few slushy inches of accumulation are possible before the changeover and some freezing rain may linger for a time well into Monday Night in the typically colder areas of the eastern Mohawk Valley, thanks to the common cold air drainage from the Adirondacks.  As we mentioned the last time this pattern took hold, the east wind and cold air delay tactics are only going to be temporary.  By later Tuesday a broad southwesterly air flow throughout the atmosphere is likely to scour out any residual cold pockets of air in the typical cold spots and melting snow will be the rule into midweek.  In fact, temperatures in the 40’s seem to be a fair bet.

 

A period of rain is likely for Wednesday as a storm system tracks to our west and the 850 mbar zero line retreats all the way to the north of the International Border.  This storm system will swing a cold front through the area into early Thursday, allowing for a return to more wintry temperatures and potentially some more lake effect snow.

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  1. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    6 degrees, light breeze, only .1” dusting of new snow last night, mostly clear with a big moon.

    Posted January 27th at 6:28 AM

  2. Denys (East Winfield):

    4 degrees, clear and calm.

    Seasonal snow fall total is 43”

    Posted January 27th at 6:57 AM

  3. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    -2* for a low here with a dusting of new snow.

    Seasonal Total: 45.7”

    Posted January 27th at 8:05 AM

  4. Michael (Dolgeville):

    Seasonal Total: 29.66”

    Posted January 27th at 8:41 AM

  5. MG (Point Rock):

    Got down to -10 here. Snowpack remains at 9.5”. Seasonal snow total is 83.9”

    Posted January 27th at 12:36 PM

  6. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Seasonal total is 48.5” here.

    Posted January 27th at 12:41 PM

  7. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Seasonal total of 43.6” here.

    Posted January 27th at 2:28 PM

  8. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    Snow total for Richfield; 5.3” for the week, 44.4” for the season.

    Posted January 27th at 3:19 PM

  9. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for CNY from 7AM Monday to 7AM Tuesday. While the morning commute does not look too bad, just light snow, the afternoon and evening look messy with the potential for sleet and freezing rain.

    Posted January 27th at 5:10 PM

  10. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Seasonal snowfall now at 57.4”. Only picked up 3” of snow this past week. Many picked up a lot more. 5.5” snowpack left.

    Posted January 27th at 6:09 PM

  11. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Seasonal Total is 47.7 inches

    Posted January 27th at 7:39 PM

  12. Cindy (Ilion):

    I’m just wondering how bad it is going to get tomorrow late morning/afternoon?

    Posted January 27th at 8:10 PM

  13. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Cindy, looks to still be snow during the morning. The transition to freezing rain looks to occur during the afternoon, so road may be dicey around then.

    Posted January 27th at 8:47 PM

  14. Chris (HP Weather) (Holland Patent):

    Hopefully it won’t be to dicey in the afternoon. It will be time to be cautious n not dumb while driving in the conditions. My seasonal total is 48 inches for the season. Looks like by Wednesday our snow pack will disappear. Maybe we will get it back later in the week.

    Posted January 27th at 9:17 PM

  15. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Picked up a total of 14.3” last week. Seasonal total up to 61.8” up here on the hill (town park area). The color radar is seeming to indicate a colder solution tomorrow…. looks like snow and ice will be an issue.

    Posted January 27th at 9:18 PM

  16. Jill Reale (Utica):

    The last time temperatures were above freezing were on January 20th.

    Posted January 27th at 10:45 PM

  17. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Weekly Snowfall- 3.8”
    Seasonal Snowfall- 55.7”

    Looks like a sloppy Monday!

    Posted January 27th at 10:45 PM

  18. Rob (Whitesboro):

    It’s going to take quite awhile for snow to reach the ground. Very dry air in place.

    Posted January 28th at 3:30 AM

  19. Denys (East Winfield):

    15 degrees, overcast and calm.

    Posted January 28th at 5:04 AM

  20. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    16 degrees, overcast and calm.

    Posted January 28th at 5:10 AM

  21. Rob (Whitesboro):

    There’s some very heavy snow in WNY. It’s gonna get wild around here this morning. If we can get 3-4” maybe the snowpack will survive on Wednesday.

    Posted January 28th at 5:29 AM

  22. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Heavy snow is developing to the west near Buffalo this morning. This heavy snow will swing in over the next few hours before turning over to sleet near noon. I think a widespread 1-3” with higher amounts on hilltops is likely. More importantly this snow falls in the course of 1-2 hours, meaning it will have a high impact on commuters.

    The Landin method draws only a small window of sleet before the transition to freezing rain. Freezing rain amounts look to be only a few tenths – enough to cause slippery spots but not enough to cause widespread power outages.

    Posted January 28th at 5:32 AM

  23. Rob (Whitesboro):

    It’s been snowing on radar now for 5 hours and I’ve still haven’t seen a flake.

    Posted January 28th at 8:37 AM

  24. sue (fairfield):

    Me either Rob…..I think it’s because of the dewpoint….i’m sitting at 20 degrees with a dwp of 8…..air too dry yet?

    Posted January 28th at 8:48 AM

  25. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Yeah but it should of been saturated by now. It’s been snowing aloft ever since I woke up at 330.

    Posted January 28th at 8:54 AM

  26. Gordon (Northwestern):

    No snow yet here as of 9AM, however when I look at the radar II see there is a hole in the precip. Over northern Oneida county.

    Posted January 28th at 9:02 AM

  27. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Finally just starting to snow here.

    Posted January 28th at 9:09 AM

  28. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Light snow has begun here

    Posted January 28th at 9:12 AM

  29. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    snowing here at 9:30,

    Posted January 28th at 9:28 AM

  30. sue:

    started here about 10 min ago

    Posted January 28th at 9:49 AM

  31. Art (Oriskany Falls):

    Snowing at a good clip right now here in Oriskany Falls.
    This stuff should show on Radar.
    My next step is to check out the radar.

    Posted January 28th at 9:49 AM

  32. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Back edge is flying. Just abot into Syracuse.

    Posted January 28th at 10:05 AM

  33. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Already spotting a large break in the snow west of Syracuse. This is going to punch through the area within an hour. Heavy snow for a short time, then it shuts off quick. The models are insisting on back-filling of the precip, but I see no evidence of that taking place over the past few hours.

    More precipitation does arrive later this afternoon though as another round is starting to approach Buffalo.

    Posted January 28th at 10:09 AM

  34. Lori (Bridgeport):

    been snowing pretty heavy here for a couple of hrs….small flakes…breezy too.

    Posted January 28th at 10:29 AM

  35. Mike (Springfield Center ):

    Light snow 21 degrees winds NE at 6

    Posted January 28th at 10:31 AM

  36. Mike (Springfield Center ):

    Light snow 21 degrees winds NE at 6

    Posted January 28th at 10:31 AM

  37. Mike (Springfield Center ):

    Light snow 21 degrees winds NE at 6

    Posted January 28th at 10:31 AM

  38. Mike (Springfield Center ):

    Light snow 21 degrees winds NE at 6

    Posted January 28th at 10:32 AM

  39. Mike (Springfield Center ):

    Light snow 21 degrees winds NE at 6

    Posted January 28th at 10:32 AM

  40. CJ (Little Falls):

    In HERKIMER, light snow at this point

    Posted January 28th at 10:41 AM

  41. Lori (Bridgeport):

    I just switched over to rain.

    Posted January 28th at 11:00 AM

  42. sue (fairfield):

    18* here and still snowing…..windy as well

    Posted January 28th at 11:11 AM

  43. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Picked up 0.5” here.

    Posted January 28th at 11:20 AM

  44. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Snow is racing east as the mixing line is approaching Chenango County. Reports indicate very little sleet involved here, mainly freezing drizzle. Despite a giant dry punch in the precipitation, it’s unwise to let our guard down. We will have to monitor the radar very closely for any backfilling over the next few hours. Any light freezing drizzle is enough to create messy conditions, so it’s best to remain cautious if you are traveling out this afternoon. Remember, light drizzle doesn’t always get picked up on the radar.

    Posted January 28th at 11:28 AM

  45. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Out at work in Oneida picked up a quick 0.5” here this morning and then it ended around 10:00. Just now starting to see some drizzle in the air, temp is 27*

    Posted January 28th at 12:13 PM

  46. Lori (Bridgeport):

    little sleet / rain mix…..temp is 25

    Posted January 28th at 12:21 PM

  47. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Light sleet here on the hill.

    Posted January 28th at 12:40 PM

  48. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Snow/sleet mix here. Still 24 degrees.

    Posted January 28th at 1:17 PM

  49. sue (fairfield):

    sleeting here as well….19*

    Posted January 28th at 1:17 PM

  50. Artman (Clinton):

    so far it has been mystery precip but it feels very damp and not user friendly outside. 46.3 for the season, only had 47 for all of last season! hoping to hit at least 90” for the rest of winter. one question for all: who is naming these winter storms?

    Posted January 28th at 1:29 PM

  51. sue (fairfield):

    that would probably be the weather channel Artman, i believe they claimed it’s easier to keep track of them…...there are just too many going on at one time usually ; )

    Posted January 28th at 1:34 PM

  52. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Kind of an odd day so far. Snow finally started about 9:30, then stopped about 10:30, with about 1/2”. It was dry for 2 hours. Freezing rain started about 12:30 PM. Then it changed back to snow about 1:15 PM. Still snowing with a total of .9” so far. Temp. Has fallen from 24 back to 23 in the last hour.

    Posted January 28th at 1:51 PM

  53. sue (fairfield):

    and….back to snow again…20*

    Posted January 28th at 1:52 PM

  54. Deb (Hartwick):

    moderate rain falling…and 29 degrees…

    Posted January 28th at 1:58 PM

  55. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    Had a mix earlier, now heavy snow coming down.

    Posted January 28th at 2:06 PM

  56. Koz (Ilion):

    Back to heavy snow here

    Posted January 28th at 2:13 PM

  57. CJ (Little Falls):

    In HERKIMER, back to moderately heavy snow here as well.

    Posted January 28th at 2:18 PM

  58. Lori (Bridgeport):

    Im at 26 and have sleet / freezing rain just walked the dogs and snow has quite a crust on it .. car and house windows frozen over

    Posted January 28th at 2:26 PM

  59. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Moderate freezing rain here in Norwich

    Posted January 28th at 2:41 PM

  60. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Just measured 1.1” of snow here. Also had a trace of sleet.

    Posted January 28th at 2:46 PM

  61. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    1.4” of snow here

    Posted January 28th at 2:51 PM

  62. Gordon (Northwestern):

    Turned over to freezing drizzle now. Total snowfall was 1.8” Temp. Back up to 24.

    Posted January 28th at 3:25 PM

  63. Brian (Lairdsville):

    Just 21 degrees here with about 1.5 inches of snow. The radar looks to be filling in again. A car on route 5 heading out of Kirkland was having a hard time making it up the hill about an hour ago.

    Posted January 28th at 3:30 PM

  64. Gail (Rome):

    At 1:30 Utica was very icy but as I traveled north and west to Rome, the weather became snow with sleet. In Utica my car had a very sticky and hard layer of ice that was nearly impossible to chip off.

    Posted January 28th at 3:51 PM

  65. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    A steady freezing rain is falling now, the car is covered with ice.

    Posted January 28th at 4:09 PM

  66. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Snow, sleet, freezing rain, sleet, snow, & freezing rain at my house throughout the course of the afternoon. Temperature steady at 22°.

    Posted January 28th at 4:51 PM

  67. Adam Musyt:

    A thin glaze of ice on all of the cars in the lot here at the station.

    The good news is that the steadier precipitation should give way to lighter and more spotty patches of freezing rain and freezing drizle tonight. The bad news is that its likely still going to take some time for the temperatures to climb above the freezing mark.

    Tomorrow will offer better news, particularly by afternoon, as the majority of our area climbs above freezing. A (brief) spell of very mild weather is still expected for Wednesday.

    In the meantime, exercise caution on the roads tonight. It’s pretty slick out there.

    Posted January 28th at 5:09 PM

  68. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    1.0” of snow/sleet here. Over to a light freezing rain now at 23*

    Posted January 28th at 5:10 PM

  69. Cindy (Ilion):

    I have a question. Does the “wind chill” temp. have anything to do with the kind of precipitaion we receive? What I mean is like tonight, if the wind chill is say 20, and the actual temp. is 33, is it still considered warm enough for just rain?

    Posted January 28th at 7:14 PM

  70. Adam Musyt:

    Cindy – wind chill is only an approximation of what the air temperature “feels like” in an environment with a given wind velocity. The reason it feels colder when the wind speed is high is because that wind more quickly whisks away body heat close to the skin.

    So wind chill can only be noticed by humans (and animals…which is why we recommend bringing the pets indoors on cold blustery days!). It doesn’t have any effect on precipitation type.

    Hope this helps!

    Posted January 28th at 7:25 PM

  71. Winter (Forestport):

    21° § raining ¿¿¿ Global warming is even more insidious than I had thought ¡¡¡ topsy turvy !!!

    Posted January 28th at 8:09 PM

  72. Cindy (Ilion):

    Thanks Adam, much appreciated!

    Posted January 28th at 8:45 PM

  73. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Measured 1.2” of snow and just under .25” of ice….. has not stopped with a steady light freezing rain this evening.

    Posted January 28th at 9:21 PM

  74. Adam Musyt:

    It took all day but we finally managed to get to 32 degrees at Griffiss. Temperatures actually climbed above freezing over the last couple of hours at the station as huge chunks of ice fell off the broadcasting tower.

    Roads are in a bit better shape (though still not great) than they were earlier this evening with less ice and more slush on Rte. 49 between Utica and Rome. You’ll still want to give yourself a little extra time for your morning commute.

    After the impending cooldown starting this Thursday, the new 00z GFS run is much more moderate with next week’s temperatures. Let’s hope!

    Posted January 29th at 1:01 AM

  75. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    32 degrees, calm, fog/mist, 1.5” of snow first then some rain and ice.

    Posted January 29th at 5:07 AM

  76. Denys (East Winfield):

    31 degrees, calm and fog/mist here too. 1” of new snow from yesterday with a thin crust of ice on top.

    Posted January 29th at 5:25 AM

  77. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Quite a bit of ice here. At least a 1/4”. Can’t even get a snowpack measurment. It’s 30 degrees here and foggy.

    Posted January 29th at 5:33 AM

  78. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    33 degrees here this morning.

    Posted January 29th at 6:31 AM

  79. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Reporting 0.25” of ice this morning in North Utica. Thankfully, the snow and sleet last night has added a but of a cushion to the roadways, keeping them from being extremely slippery. My morning commute was slippery, but not any worse than yesterday afternoon. Four wheel drive was turned on for the first time in a while to get up the hill.

    Posted January 29th at 6:43 AM

  80. sue (fairfield):

    sitting at 26* here

    Posted January 29th at 6:55 AM

  81. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Fog is getting worse here at daybreak. Visability is less than 1/4 mile. Still 30 degrees.

    Posted January 29th at 7:00 AM

  82. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Very foggy here at 29*

    Posted January 29th at 7:08 AM

  83. Rob (Whitesboro):

    There was alot of elevated convection over Michigan this morning. Wouldn’t be surprised if we saw a few thunderstorms later this afternoon.

    Posted January 29th at 7:57 AM

  84. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    0.3” of ice and 0.7” of new snow. What a mess out there this morning. Glad we’re above freezing finally.

    Posted January 29th at 7:57 AM

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