50" down, 40" to go...
Posted February 5th, 2013 by Bill Kardas. 72 comments
You know it's the dead of winter in CNY when...
1) The fact that there wasn't significant snow, high wind, freezing rain, or sleet during the morning commute IS A HEADLINE.
2) Bill Kardas refuses to say 'frigid' unless the temperature is below zero.
3) There's little enthusiasm for 1-3" of overnight snowfall.
Anyways, it's turning out to be a sunny, beautiful day across the area. The sun is strong enough now to melt snow off the roadway (side note: be careful at night though, as this melted snow could refreeze on untreated surfaces). We do have some weather to follow over the next several days:
A clipper system - a weak area of (generally) land locked low pressure will scoot over the Great Lakes, pick up some moisture, and drop light snow across the area. The light snow starts after the evening commute tonight and lingers through the early morning. A brief window of lake effect will accompany the tail end of the system, keeping light snow showers around for tomorrow morning north of the valley. Accumulations look less than 1" for most areas - closer to 1" along the higher elevations.
High pressure returns for the second half of Wednesday with clearing skies. This will allow for another cold night, with single digits to below zero temperatures by Thursday morning - par for the course. Sunshine Thursday before our next system swings in for Friday.
Yet another clipper swings in on Friday. This one unfolds in a different fashion, tapping energy from a coastal storm. It's a complex scenario that needs to be monitored closely. There are disagreements in the forecasting models as to how to handle the situation. As of this morning, the 12z NAM keeps the energy generally separate, with the parent low passing southeast of the area. This would favor widespread light snowfall, but nothing big. The second scenario (12z GFS) favors a merging of the clipper and coastal, wrapping coastal storm precipitation closer to our area. This would bring widespread heavy snowfall to the northeast, especially south and east of Utica. It could go either way, but in my experience, the second scenario is more likely. We'll monitor the situation and post more details as better data becomes available.
Passed the 50" mark...
After picking up 5" of snow in Utica yesterday, we surpassed the 50" mark for the season (as noted in the title) - officially 53.7". That puts Utica 8.5" behind average for today's date. At the present pace, we'll likely finish the season between 70-90". Could we climb past 90"? Doesn't look good now...long range forecasts point to milder weather for the middle of the month. We'd have to make up ground in March or get clocked with a random big storm. Either way, this is pretty close to what we expected in our winter outlook, but we can't consider this victory until the season is officially over.
Recent Comments on this Entry
- cainiao198806 (newyork) April 24th, 9:27 PM
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