50" down, 40" to go...

Posted February 5th, 2013 by Bill Kardas. 72 comments

You know it's the dead of winter in CNY when...

1)  The fact that there wasn't significant snow, high wind, freezing rain, or sleet during the morning commute IS A HEADLINE.

2)  Bill Kardas refuses to say 'frigid' unless the temperature is below zero.

3)  There's little enthusiasm for 1-3" of overnight snowfall.

Anyways, it's turning out to be a sunny, beautiful day across the area.  The sun is strong enough now to melt snow off the roadway (side note: be careful at night though, as this melted snow could refreeze on untreated surfaces).  We do have some weather to follow over the next several days:

Clipper tonight

A clipper system - a weak area of (generally) land locked low pressure will scoot over the Great Lakes, pick up some moisture, and drop light snow across the area.  The light snow starts after the evening commute tonight and lingers through the early morning.  A brief window of lake effect will accompany the tail end of the system, keeping light snow showers around for tomorrow morning north of the valley.  Accumulations look less than 1" for most areas - closer to 1" along the higher elevations.

High pressure returns for the second half of Wednesday with clearing skies.  This will allow for another cold night, with single digits to below zero temperatures by Thursday morning - par for the course.  Sunshine Thursday before our next system swings in for Friday.

Friday snowfall

Yet another clipper swings in on Friday.  This one unfolds in a different fashion, tapping energy from a coastal storm.  It's a complex scenario that needs to be monitored closely.  There are disagreements in the forecasting models as to how to handle the situation.  As of this morning, the 12z NAM keeps the energy generally separate, with the parent low passing southeast of the area.  This would favor widespread light snowfall, but nothing big.  The second scenario (12z GFS) favors a merging of the clipper and coastal, wrapping coastal storm precipitation closer to our area.  This would bring widespread heavy snowfall to the northeast, especially south and east of Utica.  It could go either way, but in my experience, the second scenario is more likely.   We'll monitor the situation and post more details as better data becomes available.

Passed the 50" mark...

After picking up 5" of snow in Utica yesterday, we surpassed the 50" mark for the season (as noted in the title) - officially 53.7".  That puts Utica 8.5" behind average for today's date.  At the present pace, we'll likely finish the season between 70-90".  Could we climb past 90"?  Doesn't look good now...long range forecasts point to milder weather for the middle of the month.  We'd have to make up ground in March or get clocked with a random big storm.  Either way, this is pretty close to what we expected in our winter outlook, but we can't consider this victory until the season is officially over.

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  1. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Nice storm on the 12Z GFS. Combined with the clipper it gives us a 6” snowfall.

    Posted February 5th at 11:06 AM

  2. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    We have to pay close attention to the way the models handle the energy from the clipper on Friday. If that system is ‘too strong’ it won’t merge with the coastal low and will behave more like the NAM.

    Posted February 5th at 11:33 AM

  3. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Even the clipper itself looks rather intense. NAM gives us a widspread 6” too.

    Posted February 5th at 11:47 AM

  4. mike w (HERKIMER):

    Well the 12z ecm didn’t disappoint lol Especially for new england..

    Slightly less then .7” for kuca, over 3” in boston lol

    Posted February 5th at 2:10 PM

  5. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Well the trend is definitely wetter for Friday. The NAM is still bent on keeping the clipper strong, but has doubled it’s QPF since 24 hours ago – spitting out an average 0.5” across the area. (0.58” at Rome). The GFS is blowing up a big storm for New England, with our region on the outskirts…still several inches of snow in our region either way.

    Ironically the NAM is actually the wetter of the two solutions, but not by much – GFS is spitting out 0.54” of QPF. The snow ratio looks like 10:1. I’m sure these numbers will change over the next 24 hours.

    Posted February 6th at 4:41 AM

  6. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    22 degrees, light wind, overcast, only a dusting of new snow.

    Posted February 6th at 5:12 AM

  7. Denys (East Winfield):

    57 degrees, overcast, foggy with a light wind here in Dallas. I hope I can fly into Syracuse on Friday afternoon!

    Posted February 6th at 6:01 AM

  8. Lori (Bridgeport):

    Thirty degrees diffence from Denys…but still warm at 27 this mornin.

    Posted February 6th at 6:17 AM

  9. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Steady light snow here with some big flakes, have a nice coating on the ground at 27*

    Posted February 6th at 7:15 AM

  10. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Moderate snow being reported in Northern Oneida County. Lake O is getting involved here, enhancing the snow showers. Still think we’ll get a light accumulation, but the timing of it is poor and it could come down all at once. Be aware of that on your way out the door.

    Posted February 6th at 7:43 AM

  11. sue (fairfield):

    light coating here as well

    Posted February 6th at 7:47 AM

  12. MG (Point Rock):

    Only measured 0.4” on the board at 7:30, but I did run into some fairly heavy snow showers on the way to Boonville, between 7:30 and 8.
    At least it’s 25 degrees warmer than yesterday — I’m at +21.

    Posted February 6th at 7:58 AM

  13. Mel (Westernville):

    Moderate snow here and 25 degrees.

    Posted February 6th at 8:20 AM

  14. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    2” of fluff being reported in Inlet.

    Posted February 6th at 8:35 AM

  15. Mrboom (Canastota):

    Hey, Why does the gfs show us getting more that a foot of snow fri-sat and the euro has us 6-12, i take it that the 2 storms that were going to keep seperete decided to get together this weekend and Crap on cny? :)

    Posted February 6th at 8:51 AM

  16. sue (fairfield):

    moderate snow here as well….23*

    i’ll definetly take a load of that “crap” anytime ; )

    Posted February 6th at 8:54 AM

  17. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I think the NAM will start showing the coastal this run. It’s ensembles dump a widespread 8-10” over the area.

    Posted February 6th at 9:02 AM

  18. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Looks like a widespread 6-12” on the NAM. It’s just unbelievable what it does to S. New England. That’s just crippling.

    Posted February 6th at 9:51 AM

  19. Lori (Bridgeport):

    you can shut the snow off now …..I saw a glimpse of blue sky for a couple minutes and I liked that better… I really dont like looking North anymore when it is snowing …..its rather spooky …its a white abyss….nothing but a white wall …no depth..like the end of the world…just white…lol …I watched a snowmobiler head out to go ice fishing and he just disappearred into the white !

    Posted February 6th at 9:56 AM

  20. Mrboom (Canastota):

    I read this blog many times a day, and dont post much. Mostly cause i dont understand it like most of you do (too busy). But What im saying is im surprized this just showed up on the radar, the weather team and models have been fantastic this year. What happened to throw the curveball? Did a storm move faster or something.

    Posted February 6th at 10:03 AM

  21. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Mrboom, The public’s standard in forecasting is getting higher. It’s really not uncommon to see things shift in the 3-4 day range. The weather models have done very well this winter, but let’s not forget their limitations.

    Posted February 6th at 10:09 AM

  22. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The trend continues to get wetter – NAM BUFKIT spits out 0.75”. Both the clipper and coastal are looking stronger too. Note the warm layer sliding in from the west and freezing line approaching Western NY. If you’re a snow lover, you don’t want these elements to get too strong…otherwise we may have to watch for the possibility of warm air intrusion from the western storm…that means possible mixed precipitation in the middle of the event. It’s happened before…

    Posted February 6th at 10:16 AM

  23. Mrboom (Canastota):

    no no no bill i wasnt being sarcastic at all please dont take that the wrong way.. see why i dont post much, not real good at it. I in now way meant that as mean. You and the weather team have been fantastic this year. It is very hard for anything to get past you. But this one seems to have surprized everyone since we just hear about it 2 days out. I understand that you job is a difficult one. You not Nostradamous, and you human. And weather can be a fickle thing. And you sir have answered any questions i have ever had promptly.

    Posted February 6th at 10:23 AM

  24. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Mrboom – no problem.

    By the way, in both solutions so far, there’s ZERO lake effect on the back end for a change. A blustry NE wind on the back end for the weekend.

    Posted February 6th at 10:26 AM

  25. Lisa (Sauquoit):

    I know there are still many uncertainties with these storms, but do we have any idea what the timing will be like?

    Posted February 6th at 10:41 AM

  26. Lori (Bridgeport):

    0 lake effect….good ….you guys will get more than me for a change…lol

    Posted February 6th at 10:46 AM

  27. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    The snow arrives after midnight on Thursday night, but comfortably I’d say 8pm to midnight start time.

    Posted February 6th at 10:50 AM

  28. Rob (Whitesboro):

    GFS looks good for us too with warning criteria amounts. Picked up 0.7” of snow here this morning.

    Posted February 6th at 10:52 AM

  29. Rob (Whitesboro):

    NAM spits out 74.8” in Portland and 73.3” in Boston. Now that’s a snowstorm!

    Posted February 6th at 11:01 AM

  30. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    12z GFS is in and continues to point towards a high impact event. The timing of the heavy snow is still up in the air – NAM is heavy in the late morning/early afternoon. GFS brings the heavy snow in the evening. Both models spit out totals between 6-12”, but we aren’t ready to make an official snowfall map yet.

    Posted February 6th at 11:27 AM

  31. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    By the way, our biggest storm of the winter was 12.5”...the storm right after Christmas.

    Posted February 6th at 11:30 AM

  32. Mrboom (Canastota):

    Um Rob did mis-type that 74 inches in portland? Thats impossible.

    Posted February 6th at 11:33 AM

  33. sue (fairfield):

    a bit breezy up here…..getting 30 and 40mph winds….peak gust of 52…...someone please turn the fan off….it’s too cold

    Posted February 6th at 11:49 AM

  34. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Our in house computer model is spitting out 8”-12” through 7pm Friday evening.

    Posted February 6th at 12:25 PM

  35. Tony-CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Boy Sue. You ever thought of wind power for your house? Seems like it always blows there.

    Posted February 6th at 1:00 PM

  36. sue (fairfield):

    ya…..i guess years ago there was some talk of it…..but it’s only windy up here when i don’t want it to be…....for instance…....when hay is down and we could use some nice wind to dry it faster…..nothing…..when it’s time to spread manure…..windy…..try to plow snow…..windy…..try to dry lawn just to mow it after it rains…...nothing

    I guess it ended up not being worth it and besides….i see enough of the turbines from my house…..i would rather have something a little more easier on the eyes ; )

    peaked out at 56mph now…lol

    Posted February 6th at 1:05 PM

  37. Chris (HP CoCoRahs) (Holland Patent):

    Good Afternoon everyone, after the little shot of lake effect this morning picked up a only 1/2 an inch of fluff and so far four inches for the week now. I am happy to announce that I became a CoCoRahs volunteer for Holland Patent in Oneida county on monday. I am just waiting now for my official rain gauge to come and I can start sending in my info. this next storm coming up has alot of time still to develop and bring a good amount of snow here. Central New England looks to be the big winner out of this one. Any chances though that the clipper could still be to strong to phase with coastal low?

    Posted February 6th at 1:16 PM

  38. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    I see the models are starting to join forces in Finding Nemo. Ba da BOOM!

    Posted February 6th at 1:17 PM

  39. sbcotton112 (whitesboro):

    when do you think they will issue a wach or a warning for us.

    Posted February 6th at 1:17 PM

  40. Mel (Westernville):

    Congratulations Chris & welcome aboard. There is another HP reporter who is 1.5 miles WSW of the village so now the CoCoRahs folks will have even more data!

    Posted February 6th at 2:05 PM

  41. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Chenango, Madison, Northern Oneida, Otsego & Southern Oneida Counties until 07:00 AM

    Posted February 6th at 3:00 PM

  42. Jimmy (New Hartford):

    .9” of snow this morning, looking forward to Friday!

    Posted February 6th at 3:00 PM

  43. Abominable (Whitesboro):

    NWS is agreeing with your in house models guys, saying potential for 8-12 inches throughout the area with heavier accums over a foot along the thruway corridor.

    Posted February 6th at 3:03 PM

  44. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Lewis County until 07:00 AM

    Posted February 6th at 3:55 PM

  45. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Im coming home Thursday !!:)
    This means I wont miss the storm :)
    OOOOOOOhhh yeah.
    BOOOOOM :)

    Posted February 6th at 4:04 PM

  46. mike w (HERKIMER):

    Hpc and kalb seem pretty bullish for this event..

    Posted February 6th at 4:27 PM

  47. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    On 18z GFS-
    I saw there is some warm air aloft later Friday, would this be TROWAL?
    If not or if so would this increase the chance of Banding/ higher snow rates per hour? I also saw that the WAA looks interesting later Friday..Is that the reson for the increase in QPF to the NW on the NAM?

    Posted February 6th at 7:46 PM

  48. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Here’s the 00Z NAM for those who use e-wall. Of course it crashes on tonights run. Still looks like 6-12 with the highest amounts north of the thruway.
    http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamp72_NE072.gif

    Posted February 6th at 10:06 PM

  49. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Coastal pulls farther east on GFS. Still shows 6-10” though. So the 00Z suite still looks good tonight.

    Posted February 6th at 11:02 PM

  50. Rocino (N.Marcy):

    Rob

    Over the years I have noticed that the trend about this timeframe out tends to shift east then back west on the next run or two before impact begins. Just my two cents. But it seems to be consistent.

    Posted February 6th at 11:12 PM

  51. Adam Musyt:

    GFS gives us a storm total of 0.64” and NAM has 0.78” just through 7 PM on Friday (though I suspect the initial NAM forecast of higher snow totals on Thursday Night may be a bit overdone).

    Both models show a northern stream low center around Erie PA by Friday morning, both show energy transfer and intensification of the coastal low with heavier late afternoon and evening snow as the coastal low deepens and what’s left of the northern upper level trough slides through.

    Bottom line, models are coming into better agreement on their 00z runs and I like our going 6-12 forecast for now. Of course, more analysis to come tomorrow.

    Posted February 6th at 11:21 PM

  52. Stephen Smith (West Neighborhood - Fairfield):

    Finally able to walk a little, new cast every two weeks. Running snowfall total for the 2012-2013 Winter season, from CoCoRaHS Station NY-HR-6, 7.5 mi NW of Little Falls and 0.9 mi NW of the WKTV Tower in Fairfield. As of 8:00 am 2-6-2013 We have received a total of 32.1” of snow. I will try to post more regularly.

    Posted February 6th at 11:21 PM

  53. Stephen Smith (West Neighborhood - Fairfield):

    Finally able to walk a little, new cast every two weeks. Running snowfall total for the 2012-2013 Winter season, from CoCoRaHS Station NY-HR-6, 7.5 mi NW of Little Falls and 0.9 mi NW of the WKTV Tower in Fairfield. As of 8:00 am 2-6-2013 We have received a total of 32.1” of snow. I will try to post more regularly.

    Posted February 6th at 11:22 PM

  54. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Looks like that warm nose on NAM hurts ratios some…thing is nasty big :/

    Posted February 6th at 11:29 PM

  55. sue (fairfield):

    Nick, you said you’re coming home tomorrow….where ya been : )

    temp starting to bottom out here….8*

    Posted February 6th at 11:38 PM

  56. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Lewis County until 05:00 AM

    Posted February 7th at 3:55 AM

  57. WKTV Weather Alert:

    NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for Madison, Northern Oneida & Southern Oneida Counties until 07:00 AM

    Posted February 7th at 4:00 AM

  58. Tom (Richfield Springs):

    3 degrees, clear, mostly calm, cold, 0.4” snow yesterday.

    Posted February 7th at 5:06 AM

  59. Nick (West Winfield,NY):

    Im coming home from doctors Sue :).

    WOW- Am I looking at 6z NAM right LOL
    QPF looking higher on 6z NAM....:)
    Wow, Prob over done some but wow. Thats all I can say,,to 6z NAM, WOW

    Posted February 7th at 5:43 AM

  60. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    New data is in, and our forecast continues to favor 6-12” of snow. Whether it’s closer to 6” or 12” depends on which computer model is right. The NAM is much more aggressive with the banding and keeps the coastal low nice and close. The GFS is bent on keeping us between bands of snow overnight, but does bring heavier snow to the area Friday night. Either way, several inches of snow is expected, and this will likely be our 2nd biggest storm of the season.

    Posted February 7th at 6:01 AM

  61. nugfin (Neil) (South Utica - Genesee St.):

    Looks like there will be sharp cut-offs with the totals around the area.

    Will this be a wind driven snow or will it just rain down snow?

    Posted February 7th at 7:03 AM

  62. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Some food for thought as we wait the 12z WRF... this comes from the Penn State ewall:

    Model Biases

    “Like all weather models, the WRF model also has certain model biases. One of the known biases of the WRF model is to develop cyclogenesis too quickly off of the East Coast of the United States. Another bias is that the model tends to over predict cold air near the ground in the Northeastern part of the United States if there is snow cover on the ground. The model also has a tendency to make precipitation overly convective in nature during non-convective events such as overrunning moisture ahead of surface warm fronts. A side problem to this bias is that as a result of the extra convective nature to the precipitation, the model will depict heavier QPF amounts than what other models are predicting, and in some rare cases, unrealistic amounts.”

    http://www.personal.psu.edu/adb241/eWallTutorial/models/wrf.htm

    Posted February 7th at 8:50 AM

  63. MG (Point Rock):

    Low of -5 this morning

    Posted February 7th at 8:55 AM

  64. Rob (Whitesboro):

    I like the SREFS. It does a good job I think as it shows all possibilities then gives you an average. It’s showing a widespread 8-12” for all of our area this morning.

    Posted February 7th at 9:04 AM

  65. Rob (Whitesboro):

    12Z NAM is a big hit. Widespread 10-14” with 2 feet plus in ENY. Keeps coastal rather close to the coast.

    Posted February 7th at 9:33 AM

  66. Matt (Rochester):

    It was mentioned the wind would be coming out of the NE on the backside of this storm. How does that favor Lake Effect for areas south of the lake?

    Posted February 7th at 10:02 AM

  67. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Well look at that…the NAM doubles down on the closer track. Looks like the focus has shifted 50 miles inland for the heavy snow….from Boston to Springfield. If you believe the NAM Boston might lose a chunk of snow to rain early in the event!

    Matt- the pressure gradient stays far to the east this time around. The strong, persistent northeast wind doesn’t quite make it out your way either. Models are hinting at a very short window of lake effect west of Syracuse early Saturday morning.

    Posted February 7th at 10:33 AM

  68. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Awaiting the GFS to make a decision on a snowfall update. I’d rather keep things consistent, but at the same time would like to narrow down the range if possible. Will keep you posted.

    Posted February 7th at 10:35 AM

  69. Bill Kardas (WKTV):

    Yikes! 12z GFS swings the storm MUCH farther to the east, similar to the EURO. 2 against 1 here. The energy transfer cuts out the heaviest snow in CNY.

    Posted February 7th at 11:28 AM

  70. CJ (Little Falls):

    Bill, what does this mean for snowfall amounts?

    Posted February 7th at 11:34 AM

  71. CJ (Little Falls):

    Nevermind Bill-I just saw the updated Snowfall Map. It would figure :-(

    Posted February 7th at 12:16 PM

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