4th of July...and still no summer

Posted July 3rd, 2009 by Bill Kardas. 104 comments

Happy Independence Day!

Very interesting weather pattern this week with the numerous showers and storms.  Severe weather took place, with heavy flooding in parts of Eastern New York this week thanks to that upper area of low pressure.  My hometown of Lansingburgh, NY got hit with flash flooding, with almost 4" of rain in about 2 hours!  Luckily we here in CNY escaped the worst of it. 

As this upper level storm system departs, it will drag in a pocket of cool air.  That's why we're calling for highs only around 70 for the 4th of July.  Typically, we think hot and humid on the 4th, but it's been an usual summer.  Here's a look at the records and stats for the date:

Average high: 79
Average low: 59

Highest temperature: 96 (1963)
Lowest temperature: 44 (1929)
Lowest high: 62 (1996)
Highest low: 74 (1983)

Record precip: 2.18" (1999)

By the way, June and July are on average supposed to be the sunniest months of the year, but obviously it hasn't lived up to it's potential this year.  Our weather patterns continue to be trough dominated, with cutoff storms easily setting up shop in the northeast.  This is more indicitive to spring than summer.  These kind of patterns are tough to break, but to see something this persistant is impressive even for persistent pattern standards.  There are some hints in the long forecast that we may see summer again. 

As for the weekend forecast, the 4th of July is expected to be mainly dry, aside from the showers that are possible in the Adirondacks.  It will be on the cooler side, though as some have reminded us, it may be cooler than normal, but not necessarily chilly.  Highs in the 60s in the Adirondacks, to near 70 in the Mohawk Valley.  Sunday is expected to be dry from start to finish.

Next week, a pocket of cold air will arrive on Monday with more instability showers.  While this sounds like a broken record, the clouds and showers are not expected to dominate all week.  What's different about next week, and what makes me inclined to think that the weather will improve, is that there's a break in the storm action.  Storms sliding in from the west end of a trough tend to reinvigorate the trough pattern, maintaining and locking in the cold air.  That's why when these patterns unfold, they will typically continue so long as there are fresh low pressure systems reenergizing the pattern.  Next week, we see a break, and so long as that happens we may luck out.  The trough is expected to weaken and slide east, allowing for some hot weather to attempt to cross into the northeast.  I'm not sold on it yet, but I think it's definately worth keeping an eye on, and enough for us to believe that summer isn't written off just yet.  We have about 6 more weeks of opportunity on the board before we should think about throwing in the towel.

Tags:

Add a Comment

Comments

  1. Tony - CNYWeather.com:

    The sun is out…wait its raining now…..oh it’s cloudy…wait…the sun is out…oh it’s overcast again…...

    nice day out there :-(

    Posted July 4th at 12:36 PM

  2. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    52 degrees here. Never made it above 63 degrees yesterday. Its hard to believe meteorological fall is still 58 days away when we have temperatures this cold in early July. The only good news if you want to call it that is the Climate Prediction Center has above average temperatures in the northeast for the months September-November. It seems like everything is way out of sync for this time of year, and then when it’s suppose to get cooler, it does just the opposite. Depressing, depressing, depressing!!!!!

    Posted July 5th at 12:52 AM

  3. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    49 degrees!

    Posted July 5th at 2:42 AM

  4. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Our record low for July 6th will bein Jeopardy overnight. The record is 46 degrees. We are already at 56 degrees.

    Posted July 5th at 11:01 PM

  5. Brick Tamland:

    I was in England a couple summers ago and their weather is like ours the past few weeks. Nice day on Oneida Lake today albeit a little bit windy.

    Posted July 5th at 11:49 PM

  6. randy Vitullo :

    After reading the forecast for today; Nice weekend? Sunday, yes, if you like autumn in July. Saturday? If it were March or early April, yes. July, not even close. Sunday was nice, but, where is summer? It is looking more and more like we are stuck in this pattern for the long haul. A two day break this coming weekend and then…...

    Posted July 6th at 6:33 AM

  7. Gordon (Westernville):

    For all bloggers to this site who measure rainfall, how much did you get in June. All I keep reading all June long was how much rain everyone was gettng. I got 4.85” for the month, however all but .38” fell on two days, June 12th and 19th. Outside off those two days, I just had ocassional light showers.

    Posted July 6th at 10:04 AM

  8. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Gordon, I just got my raingauge up July 1st. Obviously I don’t have a total for June, but so far this month I have recorded 1.26” inches of rain.

    Posted July 6th at 2:50 PM

  9. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    4.48” for me Gordon. Sure has been some soggy spring/summer so far.

    Posted July 6th at 3:23 PM

  10. PowerShot:

    Hey bill any ideas on the long term for winter yet ????

    Posted July 6th at 3:40 PM

  11. PowerShot:

    Hey Bill any ideas on the long term forecast for winter

    Posted July 6th at 3:41 PM

  12. Jill Reale (Utica):

    A thunderstorm will be moving into Western Oneida County within the half hour. It is flagging small hail, along with heavy rain.

    Posted July 6th at 6:03 PM

  13. Beau (Taberg):

    Since that wonderful week of dry weather right around summer solstice, there hasn’t been any opportunity to make hay. What is called “June hay” is long gone and now looking at July slipping by.

    Is there any outlook that allows for a nice warm dry spell this month so that haying can continue. From what I can see, both this week and the weekend is absolutely out of the question. Any extended forecast with hope? Thanks all.

    Posted July 6th at 7:21 PM

  14. Bill Kardas:

    Beau,

    I have no optimism for the remainder of July. It seems like every potential breath of summer air in the long range forecast becomes squashed from another storm moving in from Canada. Perhaps August will be better.

    Posted July 7th at 5:38 AM

  15. Working in Utica:

    Here at my job, our seasonal sales for our product are way down. If the weather does not heat up by mid-July, we will be throwing in the towel for this year, which is not good. Not only does the weather effect our personal lives, but it effects the economy as well. My work is taking a beating over the poor summer here in the northeast. The economy is already down to its knees. Here at my work, we have been beaten up pretty badly over the last year, and this poor summer weather ain’t helping any. Ugh…

    Posted July 7th at 8:34 AM

  16. Bill Kardas:

    Looks like severe weather is possible in Eastern New York today, as an occluded front continues to pass by. Nothing more than a downpour from that front about an hour ago here on Smith Hill. Some places east of town did report thunder. Looks relatively quiet for the next few hours, but a few non-severe popup thunderstorms are still possible this afternoon.

    Posted July 7th at 11:00 AM

  17. Bill Kardas:

    A few cells are firing up west of town along weak boundary. Will be interesting to see how well these storms develop, and if they can hold together as they advance eastward.

    Posted July 7th at 11:56 AM

  18. Bill Kardas:

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH POSTED FOR HERKIMER, HAMILTON, FULTON, MONTGOMERY COUNTY UNTIL 7PM. WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS COUNTY UNTIL 12:45PM

    Posted July 7th at 11:57 AM

  19. Kenny (South utica):

    line to the west is looking pretty healthy…showing some hail with it as well….this is probably the birth of the line that watch is out for to our east.

    Posted July 7th at 12:03 PM

  20. Kenny (South utica):

    and just like that there are warnings up for oneida county in association with that line.

    Posted July 7th at 12:06 PM

  21. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Yup. You spoke too soon Bill.

    Posted July 7th at 12:07 PM

  22. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    GR3 Radar says 100% chance of hail with this storm approaching

    Posted July 7th at 12:11 PM

  23. Kenny (South utica):

    looking like that cell could be a good one for the utica area if it stays its course and maintains its strength.

    Posted July 7th at 12:15 PM

  24. Bill Kardas:

    Wow. I figured there might be a few storms possible this afternoon but it’s very impressive to see these storms fire up so quickly without a whole lot of instability. I think a lake breeze acted like steroids on these cells.

    Posted July 7th at 12:16 PM

  25. Bill Kardas:

    Storm tracker flagging hail up to 1” in cell crossing Oneida Lake. Cell in NW Oneida county is showing signs of weakening…but still showing hail up to a half inch in diameter.

    Posted July 7th at 12:21 PM

  26. Bill Kardas:

    Interesting observation about the storms out west….there’s a spike in CAPE right over NW Oneida county according to SPC Meso Analysis maps…up to 1500 J/kg. That could explain why storms have popped up here.

    Posted July 7th at 12:26 PM

  27. Bill Kardas:

    Storm tracker now flagging 1.5” hail in cell north of Sylvan Beach! This storm is heading toward Rome, and if it does hold together will be there before 1:30PM

    Posted July 7th at 12:39 PM

  28. Kenny (South utica):

    starting to see some cells fire out ahead of the line….wonder if they will steal the thunder of this line so to speak or add fuel to the fire.

    Posted July 7th at 12:48 PM

  29. Bill Kardas:

    More cells firing up along an outflow boundary in Southern and Central Oneida County. Notice how these cells are north and south of the valley…definately something to do with topography.

    Posted July 7th at 12:49 PM

  30. Kenny (South utica):

    bill do you think the nws will extend the warning past the 1pm expiration time.

    Posted July 7th at 12:52 PM

  31. Bill Kardas:

    The storm that crossed Oneida Lake has weakened, but it’s still over the threshold for severe weather. Unless it dramatically weakens, I’d think the warning would continue.

    Posted July 7th at 12:55 PM

  32. Bill Kardas:

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

    • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...

    • UNTIL 200 PM EDT

    • AT 1257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR NEW LONDON...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

    • THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
    LEE BY 105 PM EDT... ROME BY 115 PM EDT... DELTA LAKE BY 120 PM EDT... FLOYD BY 135 PM EDT... STITTVILLE AND STEUBEN BY 140 PM EDT... HOLLAND PATENT AND STEUBEN BY 145 PM EDT...

    Posted July 7th at 1:09 PM

  33. Mike(Rome):

    Starting to hear some thunder and it’s getting dark here, maybe we’ll finally get a good storm

    Posted July 7th at 1:09 PM

  34. Justin (Utica):

    so does Utica actually stand a chance of seeing a storm this time around?

    Posted July 7th at 1:15 PM

  35. Bill Kardas:

    It amazes me watching these cells in action….looks like some kind of merging of two cells going on in Central Oneida County….if this thing continues its course, it’s going to slam the station here at WKTV. Time to make the popcorn :)

    Posted July 7th at 1:16 PM

  36. Kenny (South utica):

    hearing some low rumbles of thunder now…and definately a cool breeze is blowing as well

    Posted July 7th at 1:16 PM

  37. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Wow…where did all this come from. Looks like some good sized hail coming towards you Tony.

    Posted July 7th at 1:17 PM

  38. Mike(Rome):

    Getting darker here and still hearing rumbles of thunder…

    Posted July 7th at 1:18 PM

  39. Bill Kardas:

    I’m not hearing a lot of thunder on Smith Hill yet…these storms are more likely producing heavy rain and hail rather than frequent lightning. I’ll take this over plain old boring cold rain anyday.

    Posted July 7th at 1:18 PM

  40. Mel (Westernville):

    Lots of thunder here – had a first shower go through 20m minutes ago then skies brightened but getting dark again now.

    Posted July 7th at 1:21 PM

  41. Kenny (South utica):

    I would agree Bill…the scanner has been very quiet as this storm passes through the county…one would assume not alot of wind or lightning damage with it.

    Posted July 7th at 1:22 PM

  42. Bill Kardas:

    Kenny,

    It’s also passing through (or was passing through) a generally less populated area. Now that the storm is tracking through Rome and beyond, we’ll know for sure how bad it really is.

    Posted July 7th at 1:29 PM

  43. Mike(Rome):

    Really nothing going on here, three flashes of lightning, and the power flickered, but there is just rain, some thunder, and the sky is getting brighter already…

    Posted July 7th at 1:33 PM

  44. Bill Kardas:

    Lots of thunder to the west…starting to rain…but nothing crazy

    Posted July 7th at 1:35 PM

  45. Mike(Rome):

    Same here Bill, very unexciting lol…

    Posted July 7th at 1:36 PM

  46. Mike(Rome):

    And the sun is out now

    Posted July 7th at 1:39 PM

  47. Mel (Westernville):

    Yeah no wind and now the sun is coming back out again!

    Posted July 7th at 1:39 PM

  48. Laura (working in Clinton):

    Just had a brief period of pea sized hail here in the village. Thunder as well.

    Posted July 7th at 1:40 PM

  49. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Very heavy rain with quite a bit of lightning. No hail but just had a 31mph gust.

    Posted July 7th at 1:42 PM

  50. Stan:

    Same in Deansboro, pea to penny size hail but very little thunder/lightning.

    Posted July 7th at 1:44 PM

  51. Rob (Whitesboro):

    This storm has numerous reports of hail from dime to penny size across Oneida County. Even a quarter sized report in Rome.

    Posted July 7th at 1:45 PM

  52. Justin (Utica):

    just got the ridiculously downpour here.

    Posted July 7th at 1:51 PM

  53. Kenny (South utica):

    looks like the sauquoit area is getting pounded based on the radar right now

    Posted July 7th at 1:51 PM

  54. Kenny (South utica):

    lots more storms firing out to the west in the rochester and cuse areas all seem to be moving in our direction too

    Posted July 7th at 1:53 PM

  55. Justin (Utica):

    the rain has come and gone here. boring.

    Posted July 7th at 1:59 PM

  56. Tony - CNYWeather.com (Westmo):

    Bill, emailed you a hail picture the wife took in Westmo. Pretty good amount on the ground.

    Posted July 7th at 2:00 PM

  57. Kenny (South utica):

    the cell moving through syracuse now is looking pretty healthy too, flagging hail already and moving in our direction. wondering if maybe the SPC should have put oneida, madison, and onadaga in that watch box

    Posted July 7th at 2:12 PM

  58. Rob (Whitesboro):

    That line in Herkimer county is getting stronger. Trees are down in Herkimer.

    Posted July 7th at 2:31 PM

  59. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Just some thunder/lightning with some rain here. Strongest part looks to be south of me.

    Posted July 7th at 2:57 PM

  60. Matt (Utica):

    I have a trip planned to Enchanted Forest tomorrow, i saw is going to be like 65 degrees… pm thunderstorms, think it will be rained out?

    Posted July 7th at 3:08 PM

  61. Mel (Westernville):

    Just had another pretty good storm go through – more thunder with a good downpour this time.

    Posted July 7th at 3:23 PM

  62. Adam Musyt:

    Report of 1.10” rain in twenty minutes from the storm that rolled through Herkimer about an hour ago.

    Also pea-sized hail in Western.

    Posted July 7th at 3:25 PM

  63. heather (5s German flatts):

    the storm came through hit fast had laundry on the line got it off as it started pouring. tons of hail and wind the traffic had to stop on 5s and thruway german flatts fire dept. went up 5s heading towards little falls shortly after it slowed don’t know whats going on. limbs were falling in the yard and roof started leaking. sent pics of the hail to you news

    Posted July 7th at 3:25 PM

  64. Adam Musyt:

    Heather,

    Thanks a lot. I’ll try my best to show them during the 5 PM news, as long as things quiet down a bit, Otherwise it’s radar, radar, radar. :-)

    Posted July 7th at 3:28 PM

  65. heather (5s german flatts):

    now the sun is out again and things are quite is it safe to put laundry back up or should i judt throw it in dryer lol are we suppose to get this all the rest of the day my daughter went to syracuse zoo today and she didnt get nothing

    Posted July 7th at 3:32 PM

  66. Nate:

    anyone konw what happened in little falls

    Posted July 7th at 3:51 PM

  67. sn (forestport):

    Heather i’d throw it in the dryer if i were you – i made the misake of doing laundry today too and got drenched bringing in in LOL. Anyway been getting downpours about every hour since noon with occasional thunder – as I type this had a good crack of thunder.

    Posted July 7th at 3:51 PM

  68. Matt S. (Deerfield):

    The loudest lightning strike I ever heard happened at 1:45PM today, just about knocked me out of bed. I think it hit a house or something on Trenton Road.

    Posted July 7th at 4:05 PM

  69. Mel (Westernville):

    Sun again with big thunder in the distance

    Posted July 7th at 4:15 PM

  70. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Two very nice storms have rolled through here in Northern Chenango with pea size hail in both but it was brief both times. Another nice storm rolling along the Madison cty line as I type.

    Posted July 7th at 4:42 PM

  71. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Any thoughts on this storm in S Madison, N Chenango? Its getting very dark and the thunder is absolutely tremendous. Been a long time since I have heard it this loud and the storm is not even here yet….

    Posted July 7th at 4:50 PM

  72. Adam Musyt:

    Jeff,

    I’d expect to see some pea-sized hail with that storm. That seems to be the order of the day with a (relatively, for July) low freezing level overhead with the upper level low.

    These storms should wind down in a hurry over the next few hours as the sun gets lower in the sky and the atmosphere stabilizes a bit.

    Posted July 7th at 5:29 PM

  73. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Fairfield: A wall cloud is usually the area of a thunderstorm that you would look at when looking for a tornado. Wall clouds are usually associated with tornadic thunderstorms or supercells. Looking at the pictures, the one of the mammatus clouds is 100% correctly identified. Mammatus clouds usually indicate a very strong or tornadic storm. Given the damage reports in Herkimer along with these pictures, it is entirely possible that this storm had some rotation with it.

    Posted July 8th at 12:53 AM

  74. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Looking at radar, there appears to be a few showers/storms firing in Oswego, Southern Lewis, and Onondaga counties. They may be firing off a lake breeze or some old boundaries from previous storms that rolled through earlier.

    Posted July 8th at 1:02 AM

  75. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    Fairfield: Just wanted to add something else I noticed in the pictures. There is a slight green tint in the clouds, which is another indicator of an intense storm, hail or tornado. I am very interested to see what WKTV’s input is on these pictures/storm.

    Posted July 8th at 1:15 AM

  76. Bill Kardas:

    Believe it or not, lake effect rain showers this morning! What a wild weather pattern we’ve been in. I’ve never seen lake effect rain in the dead middle of summer before.

    Posted July 8th at 8:05 AM

  77. Bill Kardas:

    Fairfield,

    I took a peak at your pictures…looks like a wall cloud to me too. The storms yesterday looked mean on the radar, and your pictures confirm that.

    Posted July 8th at 8:08 AM

  78. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    SPC has placed us in their day 4 convective outlook. Looks like a significant severe weather outbreak is possible for Saturday if everything comes together just right.

    Posted July 8th at 1:06 PM

  79. dave (hp):

    Funny but I think we need a hurricane to break this weather funk we are in . Seriously I do have a question I have been watching the radar every time we have thunderstorm activity in this area what is causing them to lose their punch ? I have seen the coming from the Rome direction looking nasty and then start breaking up . One day it just seemed to dry in this area for them to hold . Its weird .

    Posted July 8th at 1:33 PM

  80. Gordon (Northwestern):

    I picked up .62” of rain earlier this afternoon. I thought I would get more rain on Monday or Tuesday then what I got today, but you never know with these type of upper air systems. I only got .08” on Monday, and .20” Tuesday, but .75” so far today, counting what I got overnight and the .62” this afternoon. No Thunder, or hail with it though. Current temperature is 60.2 degrees.

    Posted July 8th at 4:33 PM

  81. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Got down to 48 degrees here lastnight. It hit 43 up in Saranac Lake.

    Posted July 9th at 8:47 AM

  82. John (Ohio):

    WKTV team – NOAA has announced upcoming El Nino for the next 12 months, what does this mean for Winter temps and snowfall? Normally less harsh conditions right? Thanks.

    Posted July 10th at 8:21 AM

  83. Andy Forestport:

    it will help to continue the crappy weather we have here.

    Posted July 10th at 11:08 AM

  84. Nick:

    I know it’s a little out of the viewing area but would you be able to comment on the timeframe the cold front will come through the St Lawrence River Area, and when the storms will start firing up? Are we talking early afternoon or late afternoon? Thanks.

    Posted July 10th at 11:37 AM

  85. Rob (Whitesboro):

    It’ll be interesting to see how much this El Nino strengthens as we get closer to fall/winter. Usually during a weak El Nino, we see colder than average temps, while with a moderate to strong El Nino, we see unusually mild temps.

    Posted July 10th at 1:24 PM

  86. Andy Forestport:

    How about an update on todays severe weather potential.

    Posted July 11th at 7:43 AM

  87. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Andy:
    We are in the slight risk area for severe weather for today. That means that any storm that does develop this afternoon has the potential for very heavy rain, damaging winds, and hail. Our biggest threat today will be the damaging winds. Storms look to develop after 12PM.
    I will try to keep it updated as much as possible but I will be away from any information for the next several hours because I will be at the Expo going live for the morning show

    Posted July 11th at 8:01 AM

  88. Bill Kardas:

    Rob & all,

    CPC and long range forecasting models are confident that a weak to moderate El Nino will develop in the late fall and strengthen into the winter. If there’s a high degree of confidence that an El Nino will develop, it’s certainly possible that it could be a stronger El Nino. El Nino weather patterns usually favor less snow and less cold for Central New York winters. Lots more to look at, and we’ve got months to put together a winter forecast. In the meantime, our focus is on the summer weather.

    Posted July 11th at 8:03 AM

  89. Jeff H (Sherburne Hills):

    Gotta love it, planned party for almost 50 people today at the house and now it looks very nasty this afternoon. Any idea on time frame Crew that the front is going to swing through the area??

    Posted July 11th at 8:22 AM

  90. Stan-Deansboro:

    Bill focus on Summer weather! What summer weather!

    Posted July 11th at 8:30 AM

  91. Dawn in whitesboro:

    I have my daughters birthday party today. It is a pool party that starts at one. Any idea on how long the kids will have to swim?

    Posted July 11th at 9:05 AM

  92. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Severe storms are already firing just west of Syracuse. I’d start the party now!

    Posted July 11th at 9:59 AM

  93. Rob (Whitesboro):

    SPC has also upgraded us in their outlook for wind, hail and even isolated tornadoes. The threat of severe weather is increasing rapidly.

    Posted July 11th at 10:03 AM

  94. Mike(Rome):

    Just heard a loud crack of thunder…

    Posted July 11th at 10:49 AM

  95. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Watch Box will be going up shortly for the area. Looks like most storms that are popping are generic at the moment.

    Posted July 11th at 10:50 AM

  96. Mike(Rome):

    I thought it was supposed to be decent this morning it has been cloudy here. Does that lessen the chance of severe storms here?

    Posted July 11th at 11:00 AM

  97. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    Thunder shower here just now.. rain for about 5 minutes or so.. Still some thunder in the area.. Severe Threat as Rob said is increasing rapidly.. Isolated supercells not out the question today. Storm prediction center has issued SVR T-Storm watch for all of CNY till 6pm EST.

    Posted July 11th at 11:05 AM

  98. Chris ( HP Weather Observer ):

    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of

    western… central… and upstate New York Lake Ontario

    Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1100 am until
    600 PM EDT.

    Hail to 1.5 inches in diameter… thunderstorm wind gusts to 70
    mph… and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.

    The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 75
    statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of
    Saranac Lake New York to 35 miles west southwest of Elmira New
    York. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated
    watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou0).

    Remember… a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
    favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
    do produce tornadoes.

    Discussion… a broken band of pre-frontal thunderstorms will
    progress ewd from wrn into central NY through the afternoon. A
    relatively narrow corridor of weak-moderate instability is
    developing ahead of this convection… and low-mid level flow will
    gradually increase with the approach of a shortwave trough from the
    upper Great Lakes. The combination of instability and vertical
    shear appears sufficient for a few storms with damaging winds and
    marginally severe hail through the afternoon.

    Aviation… a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
    to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
    knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm
    motion vector 26030.

    Posted July 11th at 11:07 AM

  99. Home in Ilion:

    I noticed that SPC has us in a 5% chance for the “T” word (don’t want to spell it out because I know how some people freak out). Anyway, thoughts on that? Been pretty cloudy here all morning. I am just now hearing some claps of thunder north of here. Not a severe t-storm fan, but we’ve missed out on it so far. Bound to happen at some point.

    Posted July 11th at 11:42 AM

  100. Matt (Utica):

    wow, i was just looking at the radar, that storm that just went over 81 near watertown looked pretty fierce. where does utica come into play today? we going to get some bad storms?

    Posted July 11th at 11:54 AM

  101. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Hey everyone,

    Just rushed back from doing coverage at the expo, what a crazy day! Watches have been posted until 6pm. Strong/Severe storms outside of a pop up, dont look to arrive until after 3PM (around 5PM for eastern portions of the area). If you have any parties today, besides a passing shower, the weather looks quiet until after 3. I am working on a new entry for comments as we speak

    Posted July 11th at 12:08 PM

  102. Michael- (Dolgeville):

    71 degrees here and the sun is back out again. If the sun stays out for awhile it will be more than enough to destabilize the atmosphere. Thats the only thing that would stop this from being a respectable event is the lack of instibility.

    Posted July 11th at 12:17 PM

  103. Rob (Whitesboro):

    Haven’t had much sun here the last few hours. It’s 77/63 currently. I don’t like the idea of the best shear values being behind the front per latest RUC. It’s going to be tough to sustain any individual storms ahead of the main line. I think that’s why are pre-frontal trough died on us.

    Posted July 11th at 12:21 PM

  104. Jill Reale (Utica):

    Quick entry is up

    Posted July 11th at 12:39 PM

Add a Comment

Name:
Comment:
Verify:

Important! Please find the alphanumeric characters in the image, then type them into the box below. You are asked to do this in order to verify that this comment is not being submitted by an automated process.

↑ Back to Top

Recent Comments on this Entry

Recent Entries

Top 5 Tags